Mini 495 - Mafia on a Plane! GAME OVER! =)

[Oman]

The thing about AlyG is that is smelt overly (to me anyway) of scum with a plan. Post the NK and say to scumbuddies "We'll go for BS, this disproves his claim".

The other problem I had was that the night actions did NOTHING either way of BS' claim. Like I said earlier, a myriad of possibilities are there, and you jump on one.

You think its all covered up by you thinking he was a doctor - fine, but remember that he never claimed doctor, and there are a million other roles. I would also like to point out this backtracking:

i never said or thought that because Blackstike is alive lets lynch him

.Oh Snap...

Blackstrike wasn't NKed,

we ate up his claim, he hasn't helped us at all

and now i believe his claim was a lie. He is probably scum.

I never campaigned against him

we ate up his claim, he hasn't helped us at all and now i believe his claim was a lie. He is probably scum.

and i never just looked at one option

he hasn't helped us at all and now i believe his claim was a lie. He is probably scum.

Some of the other options are the reason i didn't straight away arouse suspicion.

we ate up his claim, he hasn't helped us at all and now i believe his claim was a lie. He is probably scum.

I hope you understand.

I don't believe I do.

As you can see. By only quoting that one post I could show you where you have in fact, done every one of those things. Nice attempt.

[Streeflo]

Day #2, Votecount #12!

AlyG (2) - vollkan, Oman
Dr. Blackstrike (1) - originality

Not voting: Everyone else

With

9

alive it takes

5

to lynch!

[shaft.ed]

Seems someone put the breaks on this game. We've got to perform really well today if we want to take out scum. I'd estimate we've got 6 town, a SK and 2 mafia. That means we're going to need to get 5 out of 6 votes in the right place today. With a likely 1 in 3 chance of hitting anti-town players with our lynch. Guess the good news is we've still got our powerroles.

Right now I'd place AlyG and Oman at the top of my suspect list.

AlyG for reasons outlined above and Oman for his seeming opportunism.

I'd still like to hear from Dr.B about his "plan"

And I'd like to know what dybeck was talking about when he said I must be the SK?


I guess I don't have much to add, just trying to jumpstart conversation.

[dybeck]

I really hated your comment along the lines of "Oh great... we have a serial killer." and you've been keeping low key all game.

It just sounded like something a serial killer would say.

In fact, I'm pretty sure that you're a serial killer playing innocent. However, our day would be much more productive if we left you alive and concentrated on finding mafia. Otherwise they'll be too strong a voting block tomorrow and we'll have no chance of getting a lynch. Also, I think that if the scum are sensible they'll heed this and do you themselves tonight.

[Oman]

Yeah shaft.ed, I'm so glad that my entire scumplan was to vote for AlyG after I planned that he make a horrible post and then stay there. My oppertunistic scumplan is gettin him under serious pressure.

:eye roll:

[shaft.ed]

Yeah shaft.ed, I'm so glad that my entire scumplan was to vote for AlyG after I planned that he make a horrible post and then stay there. My oppertunistic scumplan is gettin him under serious pressure.

:eye roll:

My apologies. I just did a reread of Oman's posts and he is absolutely right. I thought originalty he was town and my reread reinforcd that.

I've got to say my AlyG impression is looking worse after this last reread.

Waiting to here from some of the other players in this game. Particuarly Dr. BS. Care to give more thought behind your L-3 vote on ryan yesterday outside of him being an ass?

[Oman]

Thank you shaft.ed

I'm still extreemely suspicious of A) Dybeck for that SK comment, which his reasoning is severly flawed (in fact I can think of about 3-4 other scenarios which make more sense). One thing I'd point out is that an SK would usually open with "Hmm.. a protown vig" to leave the claim open later. B) AlyG same reasons. C) Dr. BS. He mostly fits there because he's been scummy and lurkey, but I would not support or condone any wagon on him. Its nowhere near enough.

Yes, Dybeck is A and ALyG is B and we all know what that means? .....

unvote vote Dybeck

.

[vollkan]

Oman, earlier you said:

dybeck, there are so many other solutions to that that I am tempted to vote you for being irrational. Two things saved you: The unvote and the fact that AlyG's post is still worse.

When you wrote this past post were you more suspicious of AlyG then Dybeck (that's how I am reading it, but I could be mistaken). If so, what has changed since in regards to Dybeck?

[Oman]

This:

It just sounded like something a serial killer would say.

In fact, I'm pretty sure that you're a serial killer playing innocent. However, our day would be much more productive if we left you alive and concentrated on finding mafia.

Firstly, its BS that an SK would be better left alive. Nobody directs an SK and lives to tell about it, and the SK increases NKs by one. Chances are any SK will clear out many town before going down or even hitting a mafia member. This statement is NOT pro-town. Secondly, I thought the unvote meant that he realised a few things (like the countless other possibilities avaliable besides SK), but it on reread I see he was looking for "another candidate" meaning another player to be the SK.

The whole last post just rubs me the wrong way.

[Oman]

Also

Mod can we get another prod on BS please. I know he posted in the last 48, but it was only to say he got the prod

In the event that request is denied: Doctor Blackstrike: More posties please!

[dybeck]

I'm still extreemely suspicious of A) Dybeck for that SK comment, which his reasoning is severly flawed (in fact I can think of about 3-4 other scenarios which make more sense).

Why not share them with the town?

One thing I'd point out is that an SK would usually open with "Hmm.. a protown vig" to leave the claim open later.

I'm not accusing you of deceit, but this statement is actually wrong. The first person to mention a role after it's been revealed, or done good work, is very frequently it. And that's a real tell that you can take to the bank.

I love the fact that you'd vote someone for being pro-SK though. Like they could be in a scum group with him

Seriously though, if we lynch shaft.ed today, we are left with 7 alive tomorrow, and it's highly likely that 3 of them are mafia. Which would mean that it would only take one mistake, and we're dead.

We need to find mafia today, giving them a probably voting block of 2 out of 6 tomorrow, which is a lot better for us. Seriously, shaft.ed can wait.

Does any of this make sense? I am honestly just trying to act in the best interests of the town. I know it's counterintuitive to leave an SK alive, but it's a numbers game, and it makes sense to do it here.

[Oman]

I'm still extreemely suspicious of A) Dybeck for that SK comment, which his reasoning is severly flawed (in fact I can think of about 3-4 other scenarios which make more sense).

Why not share them with the town?

1. Protown Vig
1.5 1-shot vig.
2. Jack of All Trades
3. CPR doc
4. 2nd scumgroup.

etc. etc. I admit that these are not as likely as an SK (except maybe protown vig) you didn't even think to consider them. You were definate that there was an SK.

One thing I'd point out is that an SK would usually open with "Hmm.. a protown vig" to leave the claim open later.

I'm not accusing you of deceit, but this statement is actually wrong. The first person to mention a role after it's been revealed, or done good work, is very frequently it. And that's a real tell that you can take to the bank.

Okay, but the role was not revealed. A KILLING ROLE was revealed, which means it could be (looking at the likely ones) a protown vig or an SK. Now, my comment was if he was involved in any way 10 to 1 he's say it was a protown vig. Also, by your logic. Congradulations all pro-town memebers for not being NKed. I am now a confirmed Pro-town character due to my congradulating that role.

I love the fact that you'd vote someone for being pro-SK though. Like they could be in a scum group with him

I never did so, I voted you for being anti-town.

Seriously though, if we lynch shaft.ed today, we are left with 7 alive tomorrow, and it's highly likely that 3 of them are mafia. Which would mean that it would only take one mistake, and we're dead.

Umm. You said 7 alive. So now shaft.ed isn't an SK? You said 7 alive. We have 10, so you're saying we're 1 down from the lynch (9) and 2 down overnight to 7. Dude, is shaft.ed an SK or not? You're everywhere.

Also, we're most likely at 10 total 6/3/1 or 7/3. Town/scum/SK. If we lynch town, hopefully mafia and SK go eachother and leave us in peace. If they both hit town its mafia v SK (alternativly we're at 5/3 Lylo tomorrow).

Now you must be thinking, what is his point. My point is this. Stop speculating on when we hit lylo or what happens tomorrow, start focusing on lynching scum. We have no-where near enough info to start this train of thought.
We need to find mafia today, giving them a probably voting block of 2 out of 6 tomorrow, which is a lot better for us. Seriously, shaft.ed can wait.

Does any of this make sense? I am honestly just trying to act in the best interests of the town. I know it's counterintuitive to leave an SK alive, but it's a numbers game, and it makes sense to do it here.

If we leave an SK alive, than thats 2 kills the first night. Then its another day to lynch him and another mafia NK. That means 2 NKs will come about that shouldn't've due to not lynching an SK. Its a numbers game.

[shaft.ed]

The first person to mention a role after it's been revealed, or done good work, is very frequently it. And that's a real tell that you can take to the bank.

I 100% agree that this is usually a good tell, but I personally feel that it applies more towards pro-town powerroles than other game roles as SK's are generally trying to blend in. I also don't agree that said tell, in and of itself, is engouh to promote a lynch.

Do you know what else are good tells? Conflating an argument against someone based on very little evidence and projecting anti-town roles onto a person when there is incredibly little evidence. We have examples of both right here:

Seriously though, if we lynch shaft.ed today, we are left with 7 alive tomorrow, and it's highly likely that 3 of them are mafia.

Nice projection there. Interchanging Serial Killer with shaft.ed. And per above it seems very anti-town to lynch someone over a single tell.

Okay, but the role was not revealed. A KILLING ROLE was revealed, which means it could be (looking at the likely ones) a protown vig or an SK. Now, my comment was if he was involved in any way 10 to 1 he's say it was a protown vig.

Acutally dybeck's point is that since I said SK, I not only revealed that I must be the SK, but that the killing role must also be an SK. However, by this logic, it also would be to my benefit to have said "You suck vig" because then I'm outing myself as the killing role and also letting everyone know that I'm the vig. as you stated previously.

Also, by your logic. Congradulations all pro-town memebers for not being NKed. I am now a confirmed Pro-town character due to my congradulating that role.

Actually I said that first:

Guess the good news is we've still got our powerroles.

So I suppose I'm not only the SK but also all of the pro-town powerroles.

Does any of this make sense? I am honestly just trying to act in the best interests of the town. I know it's counterintuitive to leave an SK alive, but it's a numbers game, and it makes sense to do it here.

No this makes absolutely no sense. While SK can kill mafia at night, odds are that he's going to hit a townie. It's very simple, you don't leave anti-town killing roles alive.

I love the fact that you'd vote someone for being pro-SK though. Like they could be in a scum group with him

Actually I have a feeling the SK would be pro-SK.


So we have dybeck conflating arguments, projecting anti-town roles, advocating for leavig the SK alive and

being admittedly pro-SK

.

I think my vote from yesterday is going right back where it was.

vote: dybeck

[Oman]

So I suppose I'm not only the SK but also all of the pro-town powerroles.

OHNOES! Is Smalltownz!

[originality]

Ummm im starting to feel like an idiot. All sorts of real arguments are being thrown around here and i have a pressure vote on someone who wont post while I could be helping out.

unvote

for now. DONT THINK THIS IS THE END OF THIS DR.B.

Alright. I dunno about AlyG, it seems the major thing against him is the carrotcake bit, and other then that you guys are pretty much just making stuff up. the dybek and shaft.ed deal is looking more and more like a omgus thing. Oman has been coming up with decent arguments lately, and everyone else just isnt posting. Day 1 is over now, can we pick things up a little bit more? Everyone get out of the woods and share your opinions. I'm looking at you, elias, drb, and lucienne.

conclusions: AlyG and of course Dr.B are under the spotlight. At this height of the game, if i were to guess the sk at all it would seem to be either dybek or shaft.ed. I really am not sure about niether person's points right now so Im not going to vote for any of them.

[originality]

You know what, I guess I'm not going to vote at all. I might as way stay where I was. Sorry for the mess up.

vote Dr.Blackstrike

.

[dybeck]

Shaft.ed, I think you're the only person ever to get so defensive over somebody trying to persuade the town that you should

not

be lynched.

Oman, none of your scenarios are remotely likely in a game this size, with three vanilla townies already revealed. We're looking at basic roles here, I guarantee it. Also, you need to reread my post and check your math in your last post.

[vollkan]

Shaft.ed, I think you're the only person ever to get so defensive over somebody trying to persuade the town that you should not be lynched.

Oman, none of your scenarios are remotely likely in a game this size, with three vanilla townies already revealed. We're looking at basic roles here, I guarantee it. Also, you need to reread my post and check your math in your last post.

Dybeck, it doesn't matter whether or not you are saying shaft.ed should be lynched now. The fact that you are saying he is the SK means that you are saying that, at some point, you want him lynched.

Frankly, I think this "don't kill the SK" thing is garbage. I read what shaft and Oman have to say on Dybeck and I think you have both dealt with this very thoroughly.

You (dybeck) are saying that we should keep the SK alive so as to improve our chances of winning, presumably. That's all well and good, but that only works if we know the SK's identity. Otherwise, I cannot see how it really improves our odds of winning. I mean, fine, the SK can take out the scum, but if we don't know who the SK is we really aren't much better off than with the scum. Indeed, the SK will probably be harder to find since there is no possibility of connecting to buddies.

Dybeck's logic ONLY works pro-town if we make a sort of pact like "SK tells us who he is and then we don't lynch the SK unless two townie deaths come up on one night". Obviously, that is suicidal for the SK and guarantees that in, say, a situation of 2 townies : 1 SK that the SK will undoubtedly lose.

[Oman]

Also, you need to reread my post and check your math in your last post.

Probably, do you mind if I just say you're right on the numbers and call it quits for math.

To add to Vollkan, directing the SK as if it were a vig is stupid because A) whats to stop the SK killing the town and saying "well we thought he was scum" and B) it could just be a vig. I'm sick of saying this, You have no evidence this is an SK.

Wishing AlyG posted more too.

Dybeck is still my most suspicious.

[vollkan]

To add to Vollkan, directing the SK as if it were a vig is stupid because A) whats to stop the SK killing the town and saying "well we thought he was scum" and B) it could just be a vig. I'm sick of saying this, You have no evidence this is an SK.

You just made think of something really important!

If there is a vig, I feel quite confident that it would therefore have been the mafia that killed carrot. I really cannot see any pro-town vig sensibly killing Carrot. This enhances my suspicion of AlyG. I mean, Carrot was convinced on AlyG am and, hence, even if Carrot is a prodigious scumhunter (which it looked from what I read), the scum could have been pretty sure of an AlyG lynch the next day. By that, I mean that if AlyG is not scum then the scum could simply have let Carrot live and push an AlyG lynch and then kill Carrot. I admit this hypothesis is very speculative, but I think you can see my point.

Now, more importantly, I just re-read Spurg. Nothing about him is particularly suspicious. Why is that important? Well, I cannot imagine a vig killing Spurg, particularly given how many more worthwile candidates there were. It is possible that it was an OMGUS kill by Dr. B (since Spurg had his vote on Dr. B), but I don't think even he would be so bad as to do that, particularly since he wasn't voting for Spurg.

Thus, since I am sure a vig would not kill Carrot and find no reason for a vig to kill Spurg I can draw but one conclusion:
People we have a SK.

[Oman]

For once I will write this with no sarcasm: You're logic astounds me.

Unvote

Town lynch and 2 town NKs loses this for us.

[Oman]

Recounted and I can confirm: 9 alive - likely scenario:

5/3/1 (Town/Scum/SK)
Lynch
4/3/1 (Town/Scum/SK)
NK Town/Town NK Town/Scum
2/3/1 Scumwin basically. 3/2/1 Very, very dicey for everyone.

...Sigh, this will not be safe.

[vollkan]

Unvote Town lynch and 2 town NKs loses this for us.

It is not a "loss" as such. Well, we have 9 alive.

Therefore, our likely town : mafia : SK ratios are:
6:2:1 or 5:3:1

A mislynch today leaves us opening on D3 with:
(A) 3:2:1 or (B) 2:3:1 (in worst-case scenarios)

For (A), a mislynch would, in worst-case, cause a ratio of 0:2:1 (ie. mafia wins). We would need to vote for a scum and be joined by the SK to gain a majority of 4 out of 6 so that we could lynch 1 scum, which could have D4 opening with 3:1:0 (best), 2:1:1, 2:2:0 (mafia wins) or 0:2:1 (worst, mafia wins).

Lynching the SK on D3 would be useless since it would just mean D4 opens at 2:2, ie. mafia wins.

For (B), we don't even need a mislynch to be wiped out by D4, which would give scum the game. If we lynch the SK, scum win. If we lynch scum, then it could go to 2:1:0 (best), 1:2:0 (maf wins), 1:1:1 (we lose unless maf and SK NK each other) 0:2:1 (maf wins).

As such, whilst a mislynch today will not cause us to lose instantly, it places in a very VERY bad spot. I am sure I have missed some possibilities in the above, but I think the picture is grim enough.

[Oman]

1:1:1 (we lose unless maf and SK NK each other)

Prisioners dilema. I almost wanna see it .

Seriously though...Whats the thought? Hunt scum or hunt SK? The whole town needs to go the same way on this, or we lose our "majority" part of it.

[vollkan]

Seriously though...Whats the thought? Hunt scum or hunt SK? The whole town needs to go the same way on this, or we lose our "majority" part of it.

Well, to be honest, I don't think we have much of a "choice". All we can do is go after scumminess. It isn't as if we can say "Right, let's find the SK" or "Right, let's find mafia and not the SK".

Taking the 6:2:1 scenario.
If we lynch the SK today, then D3 opens at 5:2. We get one mislynch before we are in lylo.

If we lynch the scum today, D3 opens at 6:0:0 (win!), 5:1:0, 5:0:1 or 4:1:1 (wcs)
If the wcs were to arise:
If we mislynch, the possible D4s are 3:0:0 (awesome), 2:1:0 (LYLO), 2:0:1 (LYLO) or 1:1:1 (yuck).
Lynch of scum will mean D4 is 3:0:1 (LYLO)
Lynch of SK will mean D4 is 3:1:0 (LYLO)

Therefore, there does not appear to be much of an advantage either way.

Taking the 5:3:1 scenario,
If we lynch the SK today, then D3 opens at 4:3. LYLO.
If we lynch the scum today, then D3 opens at 3:2:1 in wcs. This is outcome (A) in my previous post. It can go any number of ways.
If we mislynch today, then D3 opens at 2:3:1 in wcs. Outcome (B) from above.