NY 169: The EPIC XD Mafia Game of Greatness (Game Over)

[geists]

I don't think you're town. If I did I'd be yelling at you for having such a terrible read.

Well you obviously dont "think" im town but "know" im town, Scum

Well, if you are town, then you'll learn something about me this game. But, I don't think you're town.

I know that you know that town-me doesn't post trajectory analysis as routinely as all that, and that town-me has no qualms at all about declining to do it just because someone expects it.

The fact that you're calling trajectory analysis the thing you've expected from me screams fabricated case.

I'm very happy with this vote and I commend it to the rest of town.

[geists]

EBWOP: At least you gave me a start as to what the points are, but now people who don't know what happened before their time are gonna have to scrounge through the rest of the game to make sure what you're saying is true about Sakura.

Bert, I've got better things to do at the moment than give a flip (I'm being nice here because I appreciate that you don't cuss) about your sniping from the sidelines.

[geists]

Nope. I ain't lynching no one other than SC

Then explain to me why you think this is town Sakura and maybe it'll make sense to me.

[geists]

EBWOP: Domo seemed natural this morning, she just is illogical sometimes which pings your scumdar at first...well it did to mine.

Bro feels town but remember guys he has a good scumgame apparently. But yeah he feels town in explaining townlurk/scumlurk, and he's so...not precise in his reads and explaining, I read that as kinda town, there's the tinge of uncertainty when he's talking that you can follow his thought processes, although they seem skewed at times.

Sakura seems town and looks town in reactions, but I consistently misread her. Still looks town though.

Geists is just pinging me everywhere, and I just *shrug* can't see her as town, sorry. Too many memories from 1436 getting to me, and how they feel so similar to this. The tone, etc....

That's the price for playing a scum game so completely within the envelope of my town meta. Unfortunately, playing that way is not efficient for a scum win condition. Or maybe fortunately. I'm not likely to ever repeat that tactic as scum. But, you're going to find my town games littered with behaviors from 1436 because it was literally constructed from my town behaviors in nearly every particular.

[geists]

Nope. I ain't lynching no one other than SC

Then explain to me why you think this is town Sakura and maybe it'll make sense to me.

Her posts of oddity looks town.

this isn't cabd, cabd is at work but yes

Vote Falcon

Nope. I still think he's town.

I don't know what you mean by "posts of oddity".

[geists]

Mara is kinda town here, what's wrong? :/

And yes I'm still scumreading geists. Did you notice Falcon's reluctance to vote geists at all despite agreeing with my points? And their distancing early in the game, and Ffery's reluctance to vote Falcon at all.

Assume I flip town. What does that do to your Falcon read?

[geists]

Nope. I ain't lynching no one other than SC

Then explain to me why you think this is town Sakura and maybe it'll make sense to me.

Her posts of oddity looks town.

this isn't cabd, cabd is at work but yes

Vote Falcon

Nope. I still think he's town.

I don't know what you mean by "posts of oddity".

Her posts felt odd and whenever I felt it she was town. So I'm sticking to it.

My gut is screaming that you're wrong about her. Except for one thing. She's got a sort of a triumphant "I found the scum" air to some of her posts that smacks of townish confirmation bias.

[geists]

OK so your comment about your meta, I'll try not to take that at face value.

Assuming you flip town, then I need to reset I think and trust your read on him. But still since when has Falcon ever attracted this much suspicion as town. EVER?

I haven't seen a vote on him before like this.

Problem is last game you left us your recommendation to lynch Marquis the next day (AA), and in Hard Boiled you left us reads hoping we would lynch SalmonellaDoctorPepper next....you know I have sheeped your reads after your flip before

I would go with your reads some if you somehow flip town

He attracted a lot of suspicion in that micro he linked to. He attracted suspicion for hard-defending his town reads. He was even freaking out his town reads with the strength of his defense.

That was a 9 player game, so it's hard to compare to a large game where the town-herd movements are magnified.

[geists]

But still since when has Falcon ever attracted this much suspicion as town. EVER?

I really really really hate this.

But he's town though

Yeah I think so. This is nothing like the smarmy surface paranoia from BRO's game. That was like a piece of saran wrap compared to what he's exhibiting here.

[geists]

we just need 5 more votes :/

You won't get mine. :/

VOTE: Stuffed Crust

[geists]

My gut is screaming that you're wrong about her. Except for one thing. She's got a sort of a triumphant "I found the scum" air to some of her posts that smacks of townish confirmation bias.

Oh also that her wagon was attempting to form with all the major wagons makes me think even more that she's town this game.

So you're thinking Nacho-scum?

[geists]

@Ffery/Nat: Are you actually reading SC as scum, or are you doing this just to prevent another wagon's lynch (F16 maybe?)?

I'm struggling with whose read to trust re Mac - GiF or Nacho. Though I have some personal niggles about Mac of my own, it's hard to quantify.

Also, why did you give up on Sakura-vote so quickly

Because it looks like the best I could do is split some votes off. I'm townreading F-16 and I absolutely hate the wagon. I think Mara's really, really wrong here, though I understand why his taking Tammy's side so strongly and basically demonizing Mara for the push looks scummy from her vantage point.

[geists]

My gut is screaming that you're wrong about her. Except for one thing. She's got a sort of a triumphant "I found the scum" air to some of her posts that smacks of townish confirmation bias.

Oh also that her wagon was attempting to form with all the major wagons makes me think even more that she's town this game.

So you're thinking Nacho-scum?

Cut to the point, I'm not reading him nor sorting him today.

I've worked my way around to tentative town, and I'm comfortable enough to take his reads seriously. This feels like NY 164 to me in some ways. I was working with him on putting wagons together before I had a solid read mentally, but my gut had decided he was town.

You guys not agreeing on Mac makes me queasy, but I feel more strongly that you're town atm.

[geists]

I really really really hate this.

I've been in quite a few games with Falcon, and I've seen three total other people vote Falcon at any point.

JasonWazza-confscum in LYLO 1415
Telo in 3p LYLO
Brian Skies - Mentor Mentee - who had never played with Falcon before, and it was a very OMGUS-y vote.

It may look dumb, but that is what I was thinking. I am yielding to what others are saying is perceived scumminess, that which I am apparently blind to in this game coming from Falcon.

Are you ignoring this game?

http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=83&t=32520

It's the one I mentioned earlier, where he was getting scum-read for defending his town reads.

[geists]

Are you ignoring this game?

viewtopic.php?f=83&t=32520

It's the one I mentioned earlier, where he was getting scum-read for defending his town reads.

I didn't even know Falcon was in that game, and I didn't see you mention it earlier (I obviously didn't see your post :/)

The games I was talking about are from my own experience (4-5 games ish).

In the Harry Potter game he and I played he said afterwards that he regretted not defending his town reads more vigorously than he did.

In the game I linked, he made sure not to repeat that "mistake". The results were mixed on day 1. He had a hard time getting traction. Day 2 he had a stronger stance.

[geists]

I only see Bulb voting him at one point, but I'm probably not looking carefully enough. Plus, he was never in legit danger of being lynched probably?

P-edit: yeah, Varsoon until January 25 is cray cray

Also ETL. And other players had issues with him.

[geists]

Sakura your current vote confuses the hell out of me. You had Casso as your strongest scum read and you say you think I'm trying to save my scumbuddy F-16.

And you're voting SC.

I can't even comprehend the thought process that leads to putting a vote on SC over one of Casso, F-16 or me.

[geists]

Because my read on SC is meta related, my read on you and Casso is based on interactions with my scumread and myself overall and the reactions to my reaction tests.

And I already explained why I went for SC some posts ago:

SC has more votes.

No he doesn't.

[geists]

Because my read on SC is meta related, my read on you and Casso is based on interactions with my scumread and myself overall and the reactions to my reaction tests.

And I already explained why I went for SC some posts ago:

SC has more votes.

No he doesn't.

SC has 5.
Casso has 3.
You had none.

Tho now Casso is pointless, as Mara convinced me otherwise.

You had F16 down as my scumbuddy. How quickly you forget your own reads.

[geists]

And yes I'm still scumreading geists. Did you notice Falcon's reluctance to vote geists at all despite agreeing with my points? And their distancing early in the game, and Ffery's reluctance to vote Falcon at all.

I guess you do have a point there

...

[geists]

Not that I want you to vote F-16. Pointing this up for future reference.

[geists]

1) That only means im getting suspicions on them, not scumreading them overall.
2) That happened after I had made that post where i mentioned SC having more votes.

And you wonder why I think you're scum?

PEd: Oh well >_>

If you're town, you think I'm scum because your town-me model is way too sketchy to be useful and you're overconfident. Bert's read is at least driven by paranoia that he comes by quite honestly.

I kinda hope you are town, because it perversely pleases me any time someone I think is starting to be able to read me winds up with an epic fail.

[geists]

Hi. I'm not mara and I'm here now.

Also ffery you've hit my townread on you with a torpedo these past few pages. Shame shame.

Then you need to add some pages to your binder.

[geists]

I take back all the mean things I've been thinking about you this game Desp.

[geists]

Oh I thought he meant something else, sorry

If Ffery is somehow town, then I doubt she would misread Sakura like this would she?

Going into WIFOM territory here. Hmm.

My phone posts are usually bad btw

Bert there are two things that make me doubt my Sakura read. Well...three.

- Her smugness about her read of me. If it turns out she's scum for sure, then in the future I won't trust any of the tonal stuff I use to recognize town when evaluating her. As it is, I'm weighing that against a all the not-town vibes I've gotten from reading her posts and interacting with her.

- The very real possibility that I have a wonky stake in the ground.

- And the third is that GiF isn't scumreading her. I wish he were around enough and involved enough to be the stake in the ground. Or that Nero wasn't frequently knocking that read sideways in terms of trust in judgement, not whether they are town.

[geists]

Ffery I can't remember but do you like pieguy so far?

F-16 sorta talked me down out of the rafters. And there was a post by pieguy refuting my read that I liked, too.

[geists]

ffery, do you think Sakura's smugness is the same type of smugness she displayed in that Newbie game regarding Cabd where he was lynched and she insisted that he was town?

Thor, Llamarble is Norlkaz.

No.

There was an earnestness to her posts in that game pretty much from start to finish. I haven't seen that at all in this game. I wonder if it's one of the things she's intentionally changed in her game recently. Or if losing that is an unintended consequence of other changes she's made intentionally.

[geists]

Are you sure Sakura is scum? Ffery's answer of three reasons how Sakura could be town made me nervous

And to people who are like wth Bert you're interacting the most with the four people youve voted today,

My reads suck and I'm easily manipulated

I havent gotten to ffery's reasons for calling Sakura maybe town, so I might change my view when I get to it. But right now I know that current wagons suck, I have a lot of mostly town reads but this is the first read that I've had today and been able to keep through one exchange and go "okay, this person is probably going to flip scum".

You have no idea how pissed off I was to move my vote and follow you on this read and then have Thor yank that wagon out of consideration.

That's actually what I meant by comparing this game to NY 164. Repeatedly in that game I supported your reads, even before I had you solidly in my townpile. And I'd work up a head of steam on your read just in time for you to change your vote.

[geists]

What vote has Thor yanked here?

The Sakura vote.

[geists]

I was hoping that I would be able to attract more votes than Tammy's, but with ffery and Bert liable to join soon we can make this at least as big as the F-16 wagon.

Mac, please don't stop posting.

VOTE: Sakura Hana

I figured you would say something about my 3324 and why at least one of those reasons to rethink my waffle was bad.

VOTE: Sakura

[geists]

Fast wagon is fast scary

:C

The wagon should have started forming at least a day earlier.

And the F-16 wagon IMO was scarier.

Also, less than 3 days to deadline in a large game.

[geists]

but suddenly a wagon pops out of nowhere for me, no case no nothing, just votes popping out on the basis of "she's scum"

That's not the basis of the votes.

Your case on me is "lol no trajectory analysis" despite MS being littered with games in which I posted no formal trajectory analysis as town. And despite your own experience with me not doing trajectory analysis on demand as town.

[geists]

Happy Birthday Ceph!

oops

[geists]

I was hoping that I would be able to attract more votes than Tammy's, but with ffery and Bert liable to join soon we can make this at least as big as the F-16 wagon.

Mac, please don't stop posting.

VOTE: Sakura Hana

I figured you would say something about my 3324 and why at least one of those reasons to rethink my waffle was bad.

VOTE: Sakura

If wonky stake in the ground referred to me, I missed the reference.

I think your point on tone is a good one.

Re: GiF point: I thought he was scumreading Sakura?

He's changed his mind a couple of times. At the time I wrote that, I think he was townreading her and you were scumreading her.

Wonkiness is an ambivalence issue on my part. What I thought you might comment on was the tone thing.

What are you thinking about Sakura now?

[geists]

What are you thinking about Sakura now?

I'd rather know what YOU are thinking about me now.

Very

Mixed

Feelings.

My head says you're scum. My gut is confused, and I'm worried that despite everything that makes me think you're scum you're going to flip town.

When I feel this way, I usually hold the course. Results are very mixed.

[geists]

I didn't have much time cuz family is here and Christmas, but I looked through xenologue to see if it's similar. I don't really get how it is. There there was this build up of pressure, in which Sakura thought there was no way around her lynch because Nacho was scum reading her. She claimed and then hammered herself because she wanted everyone to know that she was telling the truth about her claim and her reads. When she hammered herself she gave final reads.

That doesn't really match up to here where she was the 5th vote on her wagon and she included the bit about the *ragequit* and then decided not to claim and say that she was going to troll instead.

I've never seen Sakura!scum so I don't know how her reaction matches up to her scum game and how she responds. And I don't have the time to look it up.

I still think there's something up with Pie, but I'm going to go with Falcon's town case right now.

If there's a move away from Sakura, I'd probably join the Stuff Crust wagon even though I don't have great feelings of that coming back scum to avoid getting Falcon lynched.

But I'd probably move to most people or anyone that I don't have an inkling of a town read on, which is most people because this noise is insane.

I'll admit that i would like Sakura to be scum because her shutting down seems more toxic than it usually does (I have no respect for any people in the game, lynch me, fuck you versus her fear of not being able to fight the lynch, frustration and being apologetic for reacting in weird ways and drawing the lynch onto her), but I feel like its more of a case of me just wanting her to be scum as opposed to her actually being scum. The big hoop to jump through is why would she react this way as scum and would she really stoop as low to pulling the "you guys ruined the game" card as scum as opposed to just self voting and trying to fake her usual frustration?

Well that's the sense that I got that was different between here and xenologue, but don't you think that you can read Sakura really really well?

Also, I'm the one who claimed someone else ruined the game for me.

What I'm wondering about is cabd's claim that she does this regardless of alignment and geists not pulling back at all after her reaction.

I usually hold my stance while I'm weighing things, unless there's a reason to back off. With two unvotes, there's not a strong reason to back off for the time being.

I don't know if she does the "I quit" thing when she's scum. I'd like to see a game thread where she did.

[geists]

I'm thinking she's town. We are at a point of the day where Sakura pulled something equivalent to the blacklist tell, which is strictly a no lynching business.

UNVOTE

[geists]

We haven't talked about SSK in a while but Nati did have a tentative townread.

I'll track him down and see what he thinks now.

[geists]

We haven't talked about SSK in a while but Nati did have a tentative townread.

I'll track him down and see what he thinks now.

Not sure how accurate his townread would be after what happened in AA, with him and Kalimar sliding by y'all (And all of us)

AA is why that read is pretty damn tentative.

[geists]

Sakura Hana
Norlkaz
Ser Arthur Dayne
BROseidon
MafiaSSK/Bert

these are my null's in the order of towniest --> scummiest

Why do you have bert so far down the list?

[geists]

also, I just realized smth

Good to know.

Thor this game is supposedly not really caring about anything and just wants a lynch right?

if he doesn't feel like putting any effort in, why would he be interested in doing a meta dive on me? such a thing takes a lot of time and effort. so it doesn't make sense 0.0

vote: Casso

anyone up for a flashwagon here?

How in bloody fucking hell are you discounting the tremendous amount of effort that Nacho has put into this game. He got a wagon to L-1 and then fucking dismantled it because he started to see town glimmers.

There's absolutely no way that makes sense for scum-Nacho to do.

If you want to know why I suspect you this game, then this stance right here epitomizes it. It's like you wouldn't recognize town motivation if it rared up on its hind legs and slapped you across the chops.

[geists]

You can't provide links to games where you self-voted or asked to be lynched as scum?

I can.

[geists]

you keep calling nacho town for stuff that really doesn't make him town. like, really... unless the "effort" factor is some sort of town tell for you? how does him "dismantling" a wagon on someone that was starting to be townread by a fair few players make him more likely town?

either you're seriously underestimating him if you think this is something he couldn't do as scum, or i'm seriously overestimating him.

Maybe.

I thought that when nacho started the dismantling process the only person who had expressed real concern with her wagon was Bert. Doesn't mean there weren't unexpressed concerns at that point, though. And the recent ton of effort was first to get that wagon off the ground again after it died in Maraca's push on F-16, and then to tear it down again.

Re sorting you, I'm finding it pretty difficult going to get data that is definitive this game and haven't come up with a line of questioning that I think would be definitive. So I can kinda relate. It could be because the bar has been raised considerably since I last played with you.

[geists]

We haven't talked about SSK in a while but Nati did have a tentative townread.

I'll track him down and see what he thinks now.

So ffery, this implies that you have a scumread on me. Yes or no? If yes, why?

It's basically a deadline compromise lynch afaiac. If Nati has a townread on you I think we'll pass, but the last we talked about you it was an extremely, extremely tentative read because you tricked him in epic fashion in the AA game.

[geists]

damn you GiF.

VOTE: Stuffed Crust

[geists]

Geists: fery has been awfully waffly today. I don't even remember if I've ever seen her this waffly. As Nero pointed out, her claim to follow my read on SC when I already had a read on him before then was weird. I didn't bother reading nati. Ultimately town, but with little bit of reservation.

I absolutely am waffly and I'm not making any bones about that. I thought this player list would necessarily lead to strong day 1 reads. That mostly hasn't been the case. My reads have veered and reversed course again and again.

What I am not is hedgy.

[geists]

waffling and hedging are not the same thing.

[geists]

Players of concern are Bro, zmuffin, domo and to a lesser extent Ceph and Sakura. I'm not totally buying in to the blacklist tell variant.

I have no idea how to read SAD or llamarble at this point.

[geists]

Players of concern are Bro, zmuffin, domo and to a lesser extent Ceph and Sakura. I'm not totally buying in to the blacklist tell variant.

I have no idea how to read SAD or llamarble at this point.

How did I fall down your scumlist in the intervening 40 pages without doing a single thing?

It's not a scum list so much as a hellifino list. You really haven't put enough into the thread for me to feel confident about your alignment. If I die on night 1, then I want it on record that day 2 figuring you out would have been one of my projects.

I should have added pieguyn to that list. I feel better about him sometimes, and his completely unabashed thread-skimming at this point is probably more of a town thing than a scum thing. But...his casso vote earlier today blew me away.

[geists]

Players of concern are Bro, zmuffin, domo and to a lesser extent Ceph and Sakura. I'm not totally buying in to the blacklist tell variant.

I have no idea how to read SAD or llamarble at this point.

I wouldn't mind going with DOMO or BRO either. I still like the StuffedCrust wagon. I feel that is mostly town at the moment combined with the fact that it didn't go through earlier. The thing that makes me hesitate is Nacho's certainty that SC is town.

If Mac had done something more than drunkpost after he got the reprieve I'd probably feel better about him. But he basically did another fade after the governor signed his pardon, so to speak.

[geists]

18. DOMO - I hate reading Domo, eh, call it nullish town.

Or maybe one of DOMO/SAD? That group looks more likely to have scum in it than it did before.

DOMO if Nati says no on SSK.

Casso, can you explain slowly please why you went from nullish town to attempting to get support for my speedlynch after I left for xmas?

Here, let me help jar your memory...

vote casso

What are your other reads?

[geists]

VOTE: SC

=====[]

You hammered when we still had two hours before deadline and Pieguyn before you had said it was L-1?

vote KoreanBBQ

I'm the one who breathed life back into that wagon after SSK claimed.

[geists]

with the exception of maybe domo, it would not surprise me if all the players in that list are town

I don't like this either. I can immediately see that he's wrong about me, I'm suspicious of ceph and sakura, while BRO and muffin are null at best. This feels like it could be an attempt to discredit geists while maintaining focus on me.

I've gotta say I think geists is town. I think ffery would consider me a serious threat to her if she's scum, especially since I had so much trouble sorting her through d1. If she's scum, she would certainly have been worried that if I'm a strong PR then I'd have had a look at her. So the fact I'm still here has me feeling a lot better about ffery.

Casso -

The sakura wagon is interesting. She threw a tantrum and her wagon gets dismantled? And you're looking then at me, who spent most of d1 saying how you were a terrible lynch becuase of your reputation? That pinged like fuck nacho. I might have been a decent wagon if I were around to defend myself, but it seemed a lot like your were feeling the town's willingness to lynch potential threats. SAD is another potential threat to scum and I really do not like that you tried to turn the town against us.

What are your other reads?

Pretty much mara and bert highly likely to be town, casso likely scum, and I'm happier with you because I didn't get killed. I'll be reassessing today, I have no plans to V/LA for the forseeable future so I'd like to think I can stay up to date with developments from here on.

No offense, but you wouldn't be the top of my list to N1 Kill if I were scum.

Though maybe you're thinking about Xenogears and your tracking tiphaine-scum on night 1, and fortunately being dead the next day. You did have pretty good instincts about where to focus that night.

[geists]

I don't think that ffery would kill you Night 1 in this player list.

I disagree. I've normally townread ffery early when she's town. The fact I hadn't would be alarming to her if she's scum.

Have we played a game where we were both town before? I'm drawing a blank.

[geists]

Meh just oz, and that one isn't really a reliable comparison.

To be clear, I've played you as geists, rift and 2, right?

I don't think I have been town with you.

Those are the only 3 games I remember. You were Rev in xenoblade and Domo in NY165 and Oz.

And yeah, though Oz was kind of a one-off game I at least feel like I have data and experience from that game that will help in sorting you. My role, though not town, was less informed than most of the factions, and yours was the same.

[geists]

Llamarble flies by the seat of his pants more than Norlkaz does.
Norlkaz is much less noisy and needs to be caught up before becoming active.
I have read through page 120.

In a game this large I believe it is difficult to lynch scum without a couple of town leaders.
I was planning to be one today, but I failed to bite in to the necessary degree.

I shall read Stuffed Crust now and either put down a vote or put down a reluctant vote.

This might be a game for Llamarble.

Actually, scratch this, this IS a game for Llamarble.

What does this mean?

[geists]

zmuffin who else are you scumreading?

I feel like I asked you this after you pushed back on my list, but I don't remember the answer and maybe it's changed.

[geists]

Also can someone pls explain to me why did Tammy die instead of the other universal towns who were much more productive and all the claimed PRs?

This is a really good question, though I have a theory maybe why a higher profile target might be avoided.

I'd feel more strongly behind your suspicion about a mafia doc but Nati was actually getting ready to post that he was still townreading SSK when SSK claimed doc.

[geists]

Nobody cares about my vote on ssk and y'all only comments on gen's vote
It hurts my already scarred feelings

I care about it. I replied to your mafia doc comment.

[geists]

I think Bert's talking about day 1 not today.

[geists]

I don't like where this is going.

Both of you yell at your different scumreads for a while. If this continues, this is gonna be nothing but an ad hom war.

This.

[geists]

SSK never killed nati so what would that mean now?

Also I stopped trolling in that game since d1 started.

I never asked who killed us! Now I know.

[geists]

Ceph, what do you think about the decisions not to lynch Sakura?

[geists]

I'm really uncomfortable with this game about now in case anyone cares.

[geists]

I care ffery.

That's sweet.

I'm really uncomfortable with this game about now in case anyone cares.

Now that the liquor has loosened you up a bit, feel free to talk to me.

Remind me what mara thinks.

[geists]

2. geists (fferyllt + Natirasha) - Scum-ish.

Nati

So geists is scummy, yet you're willing to lynch me if nati says no to SSK?

Why are you willing to sheep a scumread of yours?

vote casso

That was Thor.

meh.

[geists]

Mara is right re: domo though~

This

[geists]

Jesus Domo

just stop, please

you're killing me with you're towniness, never thought I would meet someone who was more paranoid than I was :/

^mara

okay then.

I feel like I mentioned the fact that I've had 2 hours of internet access in the past 6 days, but maybe I forgot to say it?

If you said this on d1, then high chance I missed it. I've read every post today that I'm aware of.

Also, god I hate hydras. One head said this but the other head said that. jfc.

goodmorning isn't a hydra. Who are you talking about?

[geists]

I don't understand Thor. I never have. Maybe I never will.

Nacho...maybe I can figure him out.

Right now I think Nacho is town.

[geists]

My recent record reading nacho is not al that encouraging.

Still, I think he's town.

[geists]

Right now I think Nacho is town.

How town? You're about the only thing holding me back from voting him right now.

hellifino.

there's a line that nacho keeps moving and I keep reevaluating.

I have no fucking idea if I have this right, but I wouldn't vote him as things stand at the moment.

you would not fucking believe how much autocorrect happened in the previous sentence.

[geists]

I think that the Bert has a certain something that he never really came close to having in BRO-game

I think it's his caring.

He was super-apathetic in my game.

Very genuine feeling paranoia.

I've been afk today. holy shit what a read

This is probably my bias about players who don't know me thinking I'm scummy kicking in, but I don't want to vote SAD today, though I would like for you to explain your read.

[geists]

I think that the Bert has a certain something that he never really came close to having in BRO-game

I think it's his caring.

He was super-apathetic in my game.

Very genuine feeling paranoia.

I've been afk today. holy shit what a read

This is probably my bias about players who don't know me thinking I'm scummy kicking in, but I don't want to vote SAD today, though I would like for you to explain your read.

[geists]

gm did you ever post your reads list?

[geists]

I already explained this, umm... unless you want more? (Which I am terrible at articulating, so I hope you're not looking for a whole paragraph with post links or something...).

You said it was a gut reaction based on ISO which doesn't give me much in terms of figuring out what I'm doing that you don't like. Not that I'll stop doing it, but I might bother to explain my reasoning in more detail.

[geists]

Hey Desp let's talk.

[geists]

I'm not sure of the game-relevance of your question. Something similar came up in a mini normal game I recently played. CTD posted a link to a game where scum claimed miller and went on to a perfect scum win.

The convo starts here.

[geists]

apropos of nothing, this is the 2nd game I've ever played that apparently features a gunsmith. The first game was ny 167. sangres-I was investigated in that one, though probably more because of nacho's rep than anything I did.

I can't remember when I was last investigated outside those two games. Maybe once before at MS.

I'll try to gather my thoughts and post something useful in a bit.

[geists]

actually GiF tracked me once in a newbie game when I replaced in on night 2 or 3.

[geists]

Be a lot of heat on you now and unlike exchanges we have had you seem to be keeping your distance more in this one. I would love to hear from you on firstly the cases against you and then secondly your strongest reads in the game so far.

i don't see a case against me

i see sakura voting me because i...don't think she's scum anymore i guess? which isn't even accurate

@ geists: what's up?

@ f-16: i won't explain my geists read; bro is town for blatantly sheeping me, of all people, yesterday

Why does sheeping you make BRO town.

Are you still scumreading Sakura?

There is so much chaos in your stances that I want to townread you for that alone. :/

[geists]

I wasn't talking about volatility. I was talking about the mix of sense-making and incomprehensibility.

[geists]

This post is an example. it seems completely disconnected from the game state.

Desperado, how have your reads changed since the point you mentioned SC, Geists, Maraca, DOMO, and Dayne as your suspects? What are your reads on DOMO and Geists now? Do you have any other strong reads?

the only one i'm looking to lynch right now is dayne

i don't understand why everyone is conftowning domo for being super-paranoid, as if voting someone for townreading you is a difficult scum move or something. i don't think paranoia is as rocksolid of a towntell as some others do

geists is still scum, maraca is still a mason

pie, generic, bro, bert are town

Given domo has softclaimed all over the landscape since the start of day 2 and now full-claimed, it makes your statement about him and your read of me pretty far up there as incomprehensibilities go. The only way to make sense of your reads is if you think two scum would risk this sort of exposure this early in the game when neither of us were in any particular lynch danger at the start of day 2.

And SAD would have me in his scumpile with this planned to go down...why?

[geists]

I dunno. I seem to be pretty controversial this game. Not in many null piles.

If you assume that F-16 ended day 1 convinced that I'm town and feeling that he'd made a rock-solid case for my being town, then I can understand a "what the hell, why'd you waste an investigation on GEISTS??" reaction.

I've been there before. I have a history of berating vigs for killing my townreads, like my townreads should be treated as though they're written on stone tablets.

I wasn't hugely impressed with his reaction test late day 1. The first part wasn't bad, but I felt like the further push wasn't very meaningful and the results wasn't very alignment indicative. If scum-me faked the initial reaction, the second one would have been a gimme.

pedit If I'm scum-doc I would have been totally confused by your crumbing. Another game having a gunsmith in it so soon after ny167 is mindboggling.

[geists]

Given domo has softclaimed all over the landscape since the start of day 2 and now full-claimed, it makes your statement about him and your read of me pretty far up there as incomprehensibilities go. The only way to make sense of your reads is if you think two scum would risk this sort of exposure this early in the game when neither of us were in any particular lynch danger at the start of day 2.

domo hadn't full claimed and was still coasting on wifom when people were giving him hard townreads for voting someone for townreading him and his "you don't have to unvote me if you still think i'm scum generic" lines.

I thought people were townreading him for looking for all the world like a PR in distress.

[geists]

I'm technically in this game, right?

Glad we killed SC, vig is too dangerous with the haze throughout this game.

Anyways, ive been deliberately not reading because after FEA and Marketplace my patience for huge fast moving games is at an all-time low. That said, I find Gunsmith not suspect in the least. I had a strong feeling this game would be influenced by the MTGS crossover game which had a similar setup(doc+vig+gunsmith vs Jailor+2 goons). So, I dunno. Working through this.

[geists]

@geists:

why are you having reservations about nacho?

I had bourbon-induced reservations about nacho a couple days ago. On the face of it, I feel like most of his day 1 play, especially his run at Sakura and then his change of heart looks very town.

I'm learning though, that he can emulate some of what I've always considered his town-tells, so the bar gets raised occasionally.

looking back on his D1 play, I'm not sure if I see the scum motivation in it. first off we had SC who practically had a death note signed thx to GIF scumreading him. instead nacho made a town case and stood by it. and now that he flipped town we know he wasn't trying to defend a buddy, so why would scum nacho directly stand against GIF and everyone who was supporting him (most of the player list)? especially bc he had every opportunity to mislynch SC and he didn't take it 0.0 he could be scum faking, but idk

All true.

Go back and look at the day after Morph was nightkilled in the Marketplace game. And look at Garuda's dismantling of every comment I made about ProHawk maybe being scum. Every single comment.

I'm not saying that is happening here because I don't think it is happening. But don't underestimate Nacho's scum game.

second, the wagon switching at deadline. you said all the effort he put in was town as fuck. are you starting to rethink this?

No. But, in the long term, it's figuring out what feels genuine about him in this game compared to others that leads me to think no. Not the action, itself.

also, do you disagree with all the people saying thor is town as fuck? I'm inclined to agree with them after going insane on D1 bc now I get his feeling of "just wanting a lynch already". also, nacho's push on me bc of my lack of interest in zmuffin makes so much more sense considering he knew zmuffin was scum against me in marketplace 3

I don't have a lot of game experience with Thor and I don't think I've ever played a game with him where he was town.

I am for the most part not considering his posts in trying to figure out casso.

[geists]

On other business, I love how geists now has this more cinical and carefree edge to their posts since getting effectively a cop clear. You can call it being butthurt if you like, unless you are a scum cop (which btw I find rather stupid logic to have been thrown out this early in the bloody game) you guys represent the first one I know I now have read wrong

I actually feel kind of uncomfortable about it. Most of my early reads are shaped by how people react to me, what they jump on as scummy behavior, why they think I'm town, etc. All of that has been short-circuited, and what replaces it is something I'm not familiar with - a very specific scenario - and how people react to that one cluster of possibilities. It's been a really long time since I've been close to cleared on day 2 and not on the basis of my own play.

[geists]

Has anyone in this game seen an F16 scum game? I ask because I have seen him panic under pressure as town, I have that as the basis for my town read on him because the quizmaster play and the endless analysis without actually going anywhere is any alignment because its easily faked.

So I want to know if im being misguided assuming this to be his town game based on the only example I have.

Newbie 1429 - he replaced in at lylo after I was dead

Micro 247 - I read this one after the fact, and I think it was for bert and/or brian skies meta. F-16, Bert and Telo were at lylo in this one.

[geists]

I don't think that's what distinguishes his town game from his scum game.

[geists]

I don't think that's what distinguishes his town game from his scum game.

[geists]

can you elaborate on your sakura read

how do you like the chance scum Nacho tried to "conf-town" scum Sakura by pushing a wagon on her to L-1?

not beyond the reasons i gave for him being scum yesterday

i think that would be unlikely. if nacho is scum he conftowned Sakura so that he could orchestrate a deadline lynch

Except he didn't orchestrate the deadline lynch. I did.

[geists]

Nacho - compare and contrast zmuffin's play in this game with his play in the FEA game.

[geists]

Also, Nacho, why is bert in the angels in waiting pile?

[geists]

there was the whole Nero thing.

[geists]

but you were in different hands. I dunno at what point you knew you were both on the scum team.

[geists]

I think it's accurate but it's a hard thing to explain.

I think his interactions with you were more probably what BRO is looking for, but once again, I don't know at what point you guys knew you were both scum.

[geists]

Yeah, I know I need to roll up my sleeves and choose a direction. I haven't been good at leading in recent games - at least not with a good target in hand.

What I really want to do is some PoE with strong town reads. But, I feel like my strong town reads aren't feeling any more strongly about their scumreads/PoE than I am.

It's going to wait a day or so.

[geists]

@Norlkaz:

why am I scum? also, who is scum on the assumption that I'm town?

you're aware that by forming a scumteam based entirely off me everything gets fked up if I'm town right? mb it's just me but that way of forming reads often leads to confbias and large potential for error if your initial assumptions (me-scum) are wrong. why would you take that kind of approach in forming your reads? like I can't see why you'd do that given how prone to error it is 0.0

Cabd/ffery/GiF/Nacho/Desp?

How does this compare to how people responded to me in Xenogears for primarily pushing associative cases off of Mala?

You're making my head hurt.

What day of Xenogears are you talking about and who are you asking about it?

[geists]

Similarities - Muffin lazy in both.Differences are based mostly on context; in that game, he was replacing into a game with an absolutely massive Day 1, lots of loud obnoxious people floating around, town was already ridiculously town and the slot he replaced into was ridiculously town already. Here, he replaced in fairly early, there weren't so many obnoxious and loud people (just a bunch of loud people), and his slot was at a point where it needed to look town in order to narrow down options more. I will also note he got a hell of a lot more engaged a lot quicker in FEA (122 posts in 12 days there, 52 posts in 15 days here), which doesn't make sense because I can imagine this would be a game he would be more excited to get into

I was thinking more about the similarities in the calendar timeframe rather than the phase of the game.

[geists]

This is Nati's scumpile. I'm putting some of my own thoughts around it.

Pieguyn - Nati has a scumread. I have a mixed read. There was one post in his back and forth with me that I really liked, and I backed off on that basis. But there is a sentence in another post I keep coming back to because it feels fucking fake.

ffery what the fuck you better not be scum

BBQ - I keep thinking about Cabd pushing through a TiP day 1 lynch in the Xenologue game, and getting away with such a bad "misread". GiF's confidence in reading Varsoon is pretty high. But, his offering to be the lynch instead (at a moment when I was seriously considering doing the same) and his characterization of the lynch as a Christmas Miracle when we lynched a town PR just feels like something that scum wouldn't do. Nati found his SSK lynch post at the start of day 2 very troubling.

Sakura Hana - the blacklist tell isn't as convincing as all that, the more we think about it, and there are too damn many players in our town pile.

Desperado - Nati's gut read, lack of presence. I feel like he's not putting a lot of effort into pushing his reads, and not doing much to organize town, which I associate with town-Desp. Nati has had good luck spotting scum-Desp lately

I'm finding it really difficult to move these four out of my nullpile and not also move Norlkaz and zmuffin. But, Norlkaz is an almost complete unknown, and if zmuffin will finish those ISOs and post some reads I'll have something solid to base a read on.

[geists]

But there is a sentence in another post I keep coming back to because it feels fucking fake.

I'm sure you've noticed, but this game has done a really good job of making me go insane. plus I was getting paranoid of you despite the fact I was sure you were town before and it wasn't even the good kind of paranoia that's based off of smth reasonable it was the evil kind where you just feel completely scared and frozen and lose all grip on logic and sanity making me go even more insane. so if it feels fake it's probably bc of that > <

for now I'm really sure of GIF town. idk about Nero but there's smth I noticed about the two scumgames of GIF's I've seen that I didn't see in his one towngame I've seen. I haven't had a chance to apply it yet but I'm not seeing it here. he's also put in a noticeable amount of effort on D1 towards scumhunting and he was way more invested in this game than usual. do you think that's smth that's more likely to come from scum GIF?

Natis GiF read is the one I most disagree with of that list.

But, his reads are in direct response to my own reads list draft, wherein I wound up with a town pile, a null pile, and SSK (who's a special case at this point). I literally could not push any of my null reads all the way to scum without becoming completely arbitrary.

also I disagree with the idea that GIF is scum bc he "misread" SC. I'd expect Nati of all people to know that bc of how he misread SSK in AA: MFA 0.00

I think his reaction to it turning out to be a mislynch looks town.

actually I realized smth about Casso. how do you like the chance Casso is deliberately focusing on trying to fool you as scum? I'm wondering bc zmuffin and him were on a team in marketplace and zmuffin said he did this earlier. when I pushed on him in that game (and I was one of the only ones doing that) he basically redirected me to your metadive on him and made up this whole story about that game v. imperishable night and then he wasn't really suspected again at all 0.0 so it seems very possible nacho noticed this in that game and then tried to do the same thing in this game

Fool me in particular? He's made fooling me an artform. It takes a lot for me to drop the possibility completely from consideration.

His tunneling of zmuffin looks genuine, though. So does zmuffin's reaction to it. But, nacho's line of attack is kinda weak and really doesn't leave much room for rebuttal beyond "Nu-uh".

I'm not sure how I'd go about responding to an attack like that.

[geists]

We don't like how he apparently missed a ton of crumbs

Just facepalmed myself because I remembered a game where Nacho failed to pick up on the most obvious cop result crumb I've ever seen in a mafia game. He failed so hard he actually thought the post was scummy and voted the cop.

Retracting the hell out of this.

[geists]

OK in all seriousness, yes Nacho's walls do remind me of his wall on Brian Skies's meta which Falcon called out in Mentor/Mentee 254. Nacho isn't usually this verbose? He's talking out of his you-know-where maybe, but I won't interrupt his walls while he is in his charming world of charming people. CRAZY THEORY: He knows this is the Nacho we all want to say, and so he is overdoing that aspect of his ID.

They remind me of this: http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 8#p5175588

We were both up all night working on our walls for that game.

[geists]

CAST DOWN FROM HEAVEN (FURY OF FLING FROM STRONGEST TO WEAKEST):

Spoiler: reads

Desperado - I liked Desperado's entrance because it was so solidly "I don't give a fuck, what's up guys". His early pushes felt more fluid and less loud and confident like his normal scum pushes. I didn't like his attack on Varsoon for "false dichotomies" because Varsoon does that as town as Desperado saw. I thought his push on Maraca was fine, and his push on Sakura was good (until recently when he continued pushing Sakura after the meltdown bit and didn't engage anyone on why opinions so radically changed). Geists scumread is also weird although it doesn't make a whole lot of sense as a Desperado-scum fakeread, and the "oh I'm not pushing you today even though I have you as a scumread because you're not getting lynched" bit is weird, considering he's made no attempt to sell anyone on any of his non-consensus scumreads. Not at all hitting the level I expect Desperado-town to hit.

Ser Arthur Dayne - Initial read on Tammy is kind of weird (Tammy is highly town unless she can emulate her usual town aggressiveness): SAD hasn't played with Tammy for a while, sure, but I'm fairly sure he played with her on Westeros longer than anyone else in the game, so the bit of paranoia that she could fake what she showed here seemed disingenuous. His push on pie is weird and not really representative of what pie was doing (and I don't like his backtrack when he goes from "pie is doing zero scumhunting" to "his scumreads are fake/he's tunneling"). Him pushing pie pretty strongly and going "meh, can't get a read on you" was strange but probably not alignment indicative, and his later pushes on Muffin/us where he votes us then doesn't comment on the vote at all both feel weird (I think I read something about him explaining the reasons he did this somewhere). I'm still weirded about by his defense of SSK on the basis of being not good information; I like that he was so honest about the associative tell thing (yeah, it was a lie all along), but I'm not really sure what he was supposed to defend himself with as scum and that honestly doesn't look so great when his initial reaction was to lie about it, which would be for SAD-town. His switch on SSK also seems like an odd position to take; he doesn't seem to be getting boxed in by POE and I don't follow his case on SSK today, so the newfound scumread on him seems opportunistic. I like his snark, and I'm inclined to believe him when he says he wouldn't kill Tammy because he joined this game to play for her, but it's not enough for a townread.

Muffin - My main concern with Muffin at this point is that there's nothing in his posts I can point to and strongly declare him town because of it. His attack on me is mostly a response to my attack on him, and has a few genuine-sounding notes that are pretty fakeable for Muffin-scum. He felt a lot more aggressive dismissing me for my read on him than he does now which could be an effect of scumMuffin running out of angles or townMuffin not feeling as strongly about things as he did before. I liked Muffin's question to geists about their townread on me (is it because of how he sorted you?) because a large component of ffery townread on me in Marketplace was my sorting her, and I like the stronger than consensus townread on BRO since it's Muffin shutting down a mislynch option when I'm guessing mislynch options are fairly sparse. In the end, I need more content and I need town leader Muffin over the Muffin that we see here.

Norlkaz (but mostly Brian Skies) - I am completely null on Llamarble, and I've sort of resigned myself to being null on him for a while. Brian Skies did not post enough in order to get any sort of solid read on; there were a couple good-sounding moments earlier in his ISO, but nothing I have any sort of faith in.

BRO - This game feels very, very different from the two games where we were scumbuddies. I agree with general statements that he hasn't dedicated as much time as in scum games to looking town, and the early push on ffery for not seeing what he expected her to seems like a nice early attack on a power player to early attack on me. A lot of his talk relies on other players and based on feelings in other games, and the majority of his pushes lack the low fruit strikes that seemed rampant in his other scumgames (for example, calling goodmorning town for town lurk early closed that option off early when it was something I expected BRO to go for as scum). Concerning bits are mostly based on BRO not hitting the "unfakeable factor" that a lot of players have seem to hit or come close to hitting, lacking something strong that I can point to and declare "yes, this is town", and having a good scumgame with a pretty impressive range. BRO would probably be a decent townread in a more normal game.

SSK read is a special case, not something to be dealt with today.

Nacho you've spent pages of back and forth with Muffin, and yet Desperado is your strongest scum read. I don't remember you putting a lot of effort into sorting him. Has your exchange with muffin made your read weaker?

[geists]

Geists being our Official Town Leader is something I approve of.I would appreciate

improved quality controls

on your posts so that I can work with you, though.

I'll need more detailed feedback. IIRC you aren't happy with my quantity of posts, but if anything the rate will have to increase if I take more of a point role than I have thus far.

[geists]

There are no such things as official town leaders. There are leadership vacuums and there are players (usually multiple players in most games) who fill them. And they do that only with the cooperation of the majority of players.

[geists]

There are no such things as official town leaders. There are leadership vacuums and there are players (usually multiple players in most games) who fill them. And they do that only with the cooperation of the majority of players.

No shit. Do tell me more about how mafia is played.
What I was doing was indirectly commenting on the quote that you quoted. Providing my own opinion on why thinking of geists as a town leader is badidea.

Who did you protect last night?

[geists]

That's fucking insane given the masons claim.

Nati would vote you here and now for that answer. Geists probably wants to see what happens overnight. I can't emphasize "probably" enough.

[geists]

Interesting he didn't say anything about it.

But is it scummy?

It was a long, grueling game and this happened without a whole lot of fanfare early on day 2. I was already dead so I couldn't hoot or stomp around in hobnailed boots about it.

If he remembered that particular missed crumb given I also played that game, I'm pretty sure he would have pointed it out no matter what his alignment in this game.

[geists]

hey thanks my eyes hurt now but I still love you man <3

Casso the King of Seals - Didn't really analyze yet, but nacho's usually the kind who protects weak, so he picking up Brian could mean that he's scum.

this is pretty legit though as an observation, i gotta admit i like your observation here, it puts me on my tippy toes and now I'm very wary of Nacho even though I haven't really gotten into this game yet.

Reference, chosen mafia. Bert got paranoid of me because of my pushes on low-hanging fruit, constantly challenged me on it, made me double check my reads on stronger players. The closest he's come to faking this paranoia as scum was an off-hand comment in White Flag (that I'm not even sure he made???).

Also, think about BRO's Open 534 and Bert's reactions to my posts when GiF/I replaced into the game just a couple days before nightfall. His paranoia was goofy and almost entirely comprised of non-contextual references to other games, and had nothing at all to do with what I was posting. In this game, it took very little pushback for him to throw down a vote and need a break from the intensity. The intensity was internal because the paranoia was genuine. I really hadn't leaned on him that hard.

[geists]

I am still in the process of doing a meta-dive on Cephrir.

Geists, what are your thought about Cephrir?

I'm working on a reply to this and to your question about Sakura's scum games, but multitasking is pulling me in a ton of different directions.

[geists]

I'll do what ffery won't.

VOTE: SSK

Why aren't we lynching him?

[geists]

I don't believe nacho subscribes to the idea of long d1 being good for scum. Was is xenoblade where he was ridiculously active throughout the day and thriving? He was really in the groove. Why is he so against a long d1 here?

I"m pretty sure that's because it was a thor-post.

Though scum-nacho does like quicklynches. And town-nacho sometimes is in a rush, too. This game is an example of town-Nacho wanting to get the lynches done and dusted: http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=83&t=33202

[geists]

PLEASE ABORT.
Geists, I think you have chosen poorly.
First and most importantly, SSK is NOT likely to flip scum for behavioral reasons I shall explain when we have more time.
His doctor claim has gone uncountered. I find it unlikely we have no protective role.
Doctor is valuable here because we have a lot of other roles claimed AND we're on evens with our vig dead.
The high likelihood scum will shoot him if we leave him alone is a factor as well.

I don't agree with Nati on this, but I'm finding the various actions and reactions to this wagon quite interesting.

[geists]

fery, what's your read on Bert? And if its not a town read will you help me lynch it?

His reactions to me on day 1 were a lot more like Newbie 1415 and Newbie 1429 than like Open 534. I was intentionally pushing his buttons there for a bit because I wanted to be sure the paranoia was real this time.

I'd really like to hear from Cabd about Bert's paranoia in scum-games, though.

[geists]

@Norlkaz:

why am I scum? also, who is scum on the assumption that I'm town?

you're aware that by forming a scumteam based entirely off me everything gets fked up if I'm town right? mb it's just me but that way of forming reads often leads to confbias and large potential for error if your initial assumptions (me-scum) are wrong. why would you take that kind of approach in forming your reads? like I can't see why you'd do that given how prone to error it is 0.0

Cabd/ffery/GiF/Nacho/Desp?

How does this compare to how people responded to me in Xenogears for primarily pushing associative cases off of Mala?

You're making my head hurt.

What day of Xenogears are you talking about and who are you asking about it?

Days 2-5.

Desp sticks out for attacking me for using that sort of associative tell argument against him/muffin/someone else maybe Aj?, but I remember other people doing it as well after I posted my massive catchup at the start of day 2 (mollie maybe did? I don't want to go reread it b/c the me/mollie fight was incredibly frustrating and stupid and I'd rather not relive that)

I was already dead, so I probably didn't follow that stuff closely enough. Mala was lynched on day..3? I forget who was lynched day 2. Nick maybe. Is this how you remember Mala defending against your associative arguments?

Anyway, was the pushback about associative tells because mala hadn't flipped at the time? Anyway, I don't think what pieguyn is doing is an attack so much as a defense. It's further than I would push back, though. I'd probably just ask something like "what would me flipping town do to your reads?" Or "pretend I'm town. Which of those reads is still valid?"

But, pieguy writes considerably more dense and spell-it-all-out posts than I do.

[geists]

I am still in the process of doing a meta-dive on Cephrir.

Geists, what are your thought about Cephrir?

I'm going to discount the first game we played because I was new to MS. It was my 2nd game and I played an insanely intense game during the two weeks or so of day 1. It was a while before I learned to pace myself in months-long game days. Ceph was suspicious of me early on, and he wasn't alone. I picked up 5 or 6 votes and never really understood my wagon or the reasons why it dissipated. My reaction to being run up was considered "town" for reasons that weren't really articulated. Ceph was one of the players who decided I was town during that and his read never wavered. I on the other hand maintained a suspicion of him that lasted longer than I did, since I was the N1 kill.

In that game he did stuff that players NEVER did where I played elsewhere because they were considered to basically be scumclaims. This was my introduction to the power of site meta as a shaping force on player behaviors.

Our next two games, he was scum - NY 164 and NY 165. I replaced into NY 164 on day 2 and he replaced into NY 165 on day 1. In NY 165 he expressed some suspicion of me because I wasn't playing "like the Amnesia game". At the time I thought it was a pretty gutsy stance because I was p much a universal townread at the stage of day 1 where he replaced in, and after pushing him on that read a bit I decided he was probably town.

In NY 164 we didn't interact much. He had fairly static stances, though, IIRC, and occasionally lamented that nobody was listening to him about his top scumreads.

On the face of it, his scum games look more town than his town games do. But, there's a smugness that starts to show through as the game progresses, especially if he's made his way into the townbloc. I wish I had been aware of that in NY 165.

His town games on the other hand, are anything but smug. In NY 167 he defended his townreads, he was angsty, he jumped on stuff, and he was anything but smug. In the Dixon Hill hardboiled game he had fits trying to read me, mostly because (even after seeing me play in ny 164 and ny 165, he expected the hectic pace, near 24/7 involvement, and highly aggressive play that I'd given to the Amnesiac game. It was day 3 before he tentatively settled on a town read of me. In the Cash Cabd Mini Normal, he had a very srsbsns approach. He townread me really quickly, which after Dixon Hill made me very skeptical. He kept a very strong focus and identified a scum player (besides the one we lynched that day). He was an even night hider, and hid behind his scum pick that night.

The thing those two games had in common was that he had a high-stakes town PR.

So what am I seeing here? He's doing some of the stubborn "deal with it" stuff here that he did in ny 167, and to some extent Cash Cabd. He's not looking as angsty, though. I'm also not seeing stuff (yet, anyway) that pings as smug.

[geists]

Can you link those scumgames where Sakura gave up and self-voted? I think I might be able to do a compare and contrast with her towngames to see if there are underlying motivations that can be spotted.

Here are a few games, scum and town.

As town: http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 9#p5222069 This was a self-hammer

As scum not faking it (I think) - http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 9#p5154079 This was L-1

This game is a twofer: As scum faking it (I think) http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 7#p5088017. As scum in the same game self-hammering: http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 8#p5103138

As town: this one seemed mostly frustration. http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 5#p5161695 and this one looked like pure fatalism. http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 6#p5215726


As town, to avoid a no lynch at deadline: http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 1#p5474281

As scum, self-hammer: http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 7#p5505567

As town, over a supposed scumslip: http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 1#p5266921

[geists]

OK in all seriousness, yes Nacho's walls do remind me of his wall on Brian Skies's meta which Falcon called out in Mentor/Mentee 254. Nacho isn't usually this verbose? He's talking out of his you-know-where maybe, but I won't interrupt his walls while he is in his charming world of charming people. CRAZY THEORY: He knows this is the Nacho we all want to say, and so he is overdoing that aspect of his ID.

They remind me of this: http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 8#p5175588

We were both up all night working on our walls for that game.

Didn't you/Nacho also do that in 167?

We did it as the game day was winding down because we hadn't taken any stances on a lot of players. And what we did was a lot less substantive than our walls in Perpetual Mylo. And it certainly wasn't an hours-long insomnia-driven collaboration.

I have been thinking about the PMYLO wall in comparison to other walls and aside from the format, I don't think many of his (or my) analyses will be that thought out ever in a game. We were at L-1 and knew we could be hammered at any moment. We were trying to solve the entire game and lay out a winning lynch strategy for town before we died. And we were going to die. If we got out of the lynch we were obviously going to be the NK because we knew we had the scum team nailed. Every bit of persuasiveness we could muster went into our walls that night.

What Nacho is doing here is a lot more organic and freewheeling. And yes, he does it as town and as scum. He did it to good effect on day 2 of the Marketplace game (scum). And he did it in a similar fashion in Micro 258 (town)

[geists]

pedit: So basically, Nacho does wall readlists as either alignment, and he's good at imitating his town thought process as scum.

So what should I look for if I reread that wall, then?

BRO he's already so good at fooling me I hate giving him any clues about how to do it better next time.

Basically any time I townread him in a game because he did XYZ I've learned to look damn carefully at XYZ in future games.

It comes down to sincerity (which he can fake amazingly well) and effort (which he'll pour on as any alignment), so the read itself comes down to very subtle shades of grey. And the only thing that will firm the read up for me is results. You can argue that the Stuffed Crust lynch wasn't his idea and he didn't have an opportunity to prevent it. This lynch I want him firmly behind.

The people jumping on him about his wording, e.g., "I don't think that's a scum tell for me" are giving me hives. You're not going to find scum-Nacho with that kind of stuff.

[geists]

@ENTIRE THREAD - A CrAzY challenge! Let's try to get an L-1 wagon *before* we hit 100 pages! Can we do it!?!?! Who the heck knows!!!!

This post is surely nacho (it's been trimmed). Thor doesn't use smileys, nacho is more laid back than thor, this seems to show that nacho is also in favour of getting d1 over with. Casso, please confirm who posted this, thanks.

DOMO that's Thor, and (surprise!) he's being sarcastic. Nacho actually picked up the use of at least one smilie to poke fun at Thor's frequent use of it.

[geists]

@ENTIRE THREAD - A CrAzY challenge! Let's try to get an L-1 wagon *before* we hit 100 pages! Can we do it!?!?! Who the heck knows!!!!

This post is surely nacho (it's been trimmed). Thor doesn't use smileys, nacho is more laid back than thor, this seems to show that nacho is also in favour of getting d1 over with. Casso, please confirm who posted this, thanks.

DOMO that's Thor, and (surprise!) he's being sarcastic. Nacho actually picked up the use of at least one smilie to poke fun at Thor's frequent use of it.

I think I should just always assume it's the other head than the one I first think.

To be fair, there's a slight chance that it was Nacho mimicking Thor. He does that once in a while in some of his hydrae. He does it in Sangres occasionally, mostly to troll me.

[geists]

If Bert is scum, then the paranoia direction arrow is going to be permanently reversed and he's going to hate playing with me forever more.

IOW I think he's town.

[geists]

You have a bloody gunsmith innocent on them. We are not lynching them. Those three are not all going to flip scum, and I say that without even taking my reads on them into account, it's just not gonna happen.

And you totally missed the context there. IF WE GET THREE SCUM FLIPS WITH NO SCUM DOC is quite an assumption to make. I just wanted to get this out there because I won't be alive to make this point if it actually gets there. No scum doc after three flips should start to worry the town if geists is still alive.

And this kind of paranoia, if it takes hold is pretty much the only reason I'd be alive 2 game days after this one. And I won't be surprised if such paranoia does take hold - I remember vividly how being alive 3 days after claiming tracker in the NY 165 game affected the remaining town players. And you should too. You were one of the scum players tending that paranoia.

[geists]

well, not so much tended as planted. You replaced out not long after I claimed.

[geists]

It's weird that you don't acknowledge that three scum flips and no scum doc flip means that the clear on you is less reliable. If there's only the scum doc to find then it's obvious that my clear cannot be relied upon; it's still pretty unreliable with two left.

That reaction plus your lack of casso support has me paranoid I checked out the scum doc.

ffery, why do you suppose casso's wagon collapsed in favour of a claimed doc? Does SSK not look like a preferable lynch for scum than casso does?

pedit - generic, the chances of me actually checking out scum doc on n1 is 1 in 20, but that increases alarmingly the longer geists is left alive with no scum doc flip, and geists is using my paranoia and a former scum game of mine to move me away from that line of thinking. It almost makes me think that geists anticipates a situation where she is still alive and no scum doc has yet been killed.

If you don't see the parallels between the scenario you're painting and NY 165 then I can't help you.

I don't expect to be alive on day 4 or 5. If I'm doing my job right as a semi-cleared town player I shouldn't be, barring some unusual game-state changes between now and then.

I realize my ambivalence about the Nacho wagon is not making me any friends. I don't care. I'm more concerned about mislynching again than I am about what town thinks about me at any point in the game except LYLO, which I won't see this time. I'm more concerned about mislynching than about being mislynched.

I'm not happy with our vote on SSK, but I will note that without that wagon's resurgence and the casso counterwagon you wouldn't be poking around and thinking about these scenarios so maybe Nati's vote wasn't such a bad idea.

[geists]

If Bert is scum, then the paranoia direction arrow is going to be permanently reversed and he's going to hate playing with me forever more.

This post slipped my attention. It really doesn't help that you're towning those who I'm thinking are scum. I think the sudden change to SSK looks very bad for casso and bert.

For me to consider casso as town, I feel this means SSK is town too, because otherwise casso would be a much better mislynch for scum than SSK. casso was legit vulnerable and could at least have been forced to claim. It didn't happen, instead the claimed doc gets run at. That sudden change of direction suggests to me that scum didn't really like a casso lynch. Unless scum were mostly already on him, it only takes another vote or two to push him into serious danger. Only reason SSK would be a better mislynch for scum is if he's actually town doc. So on that basis casso is a way better lynch than SSK imo. A SSK mislynch is probably worse than a casso mislynch, and SSK has at least some claim to being town because it seems like scum prefer him dead to casso.

Yeah, I am aware that this is another read that disagrees with yours.

I'm not done evaluating either of them, but my day 2 reads are tentative town and strong town on casso and bert respectively.

Think about what caused the resurgence of the SSK wagon. It was Nati. This slot. Which you partially cleared as town. Though I think you're right that there are probably more than 1 scum on that wagon no matter what his alignment.

[geists]

It's a safe wagon full stop.

Same fucking thing happened in the NY 165 game on day 1 when I voted Nero. The players who were potentially "saved" by that wagon were all town IIRC.

[geists]

That's actually a good question.

I have a theory, but I don't know if it's accurate. Considering my baseline reactions as likely or typical town reactions hasn't worked all that well for me in the past. :/

[geists]

ffery head v/la through 1/8

[geists]

Guess what, you're stuck with me the next few days.

[geists]

Here he says that nat is reactive and geists shouldn't be trusted as town leader, even though ffery is the main head and ffery is a very good town leader.

Geists asks ssk who he protected, he then claims geists because they are an asset when town.

This is so contradictory that I can't help feel that it must be deliberate. It took over 20 minutes for him to post this reply, so plenty enough time to consider how to respond.

This looks to me fake as fuck. I think it looks bad for geists if SSK and casso flips scum. It looks like a deliberate attempt to sacrifice SSK to save casso. That's how it looks to me.

It's entirely possible that I looked at the scum doc n1. If I did that, my d2 claim is a nightmare for geists because it's too early for it to allow her to coast to an easy victory, it would be much better for her if I claim d3 or later. But it gives her influence, she will be in better position to lead the village, and thus if she is scum doc then no question she will look to use her influence to divert wagons.

ffery's responses to me today have done the opposite of comfort me. I'll admit I'm highly amused that I'm scumreading my gunsmith clear, that's not gonna happen often. But I was suspicious of her d1, hence the look up, and she's not filling me with confidence today, even as near confirmed town.

I am not suggesting we lynch her. I'm suggesting you take my comments seriously if we get three scum flips from casso bert and ssk, with no scum doc. That would show that I'm reading this game well. And if she is scum doc, I'm gonna brag that shit for ever, regardless of who wins, because that's sick soulread territory.

Until we get those three scum flips, I'm just making noise. I'm gonna be dead soon so it's important I share my concerns. This exchange between ffery and ssk supports my thinking, so I'll post it.

Now, listen, friend.

First off, you're building this entire case on us being a doctor.

With a claimed doctor.

If you think this is the case, don't you think it'd be wise to, you know, get the claimed doctor flipped?

The last I checked, ffery and I really liked roflcopter's play regarding this game, felt it was similar to his behavior in Death's Diner. I haven't actually read though.

Additionally, your suggested play is like, nearly identical to last goodmorning scumteam's stupid gambit. Do you really think ffery would let me do that again(because, let me tell you, I'd be the one in this hydra to actually do such a gambit!)?

[geists]

I see no contradiction.

[geists]

Hey nati. Why don't you bus casso like bert is doing?

Cuz Thor yelled at me when we were pushing him in our scum QT yesterday.

For what it's worth, I don't actually think SSK is going to flip scumdoc. The more I think about it, he likely was just fishing for a counterclaim or doing an emergency-style "get-me-through-the-night" claim.

[geists]

I think Sakura is scum on the wagon.

[geists]

Pie, that's not a ringing endorsement from you.

I don't trust you altogether, much like you KBBQ will post something very town and then go the other way. His current defence on casso now he is lead wagon is a concern.

In fact, several of you have now come out in defence of casso, I have thrown it out there but give me the best alternative. I don't want a town casso lynched but this feels like a scum hydra. But that is not a certainty read because it relies on others being scum...

Fuck this game, I will wait got responses from casso/KBBQ/pie/anyone else defending casso right now.

In fact, f16, I want you to talk to me here, give me what you are seeing from the game state at this moment in time, I want guidance and you have yet to have input with me.

I am not seeing any progression of gamestate and feel somewhat tuned out at the moment. I have a strong scumread on SSK and am fairly certain he is scum. I have concerns about Casso as well that I put forth. Nacho has been addressing the suspicion on him but I don't see Nacho doing what Nacho does as town: wreck scumteams. He is just not as engaged in scumhunting. I don't find his posts to be similar to the Perpetual Mylo game that Geists linked earlier. But it is not as obvious to me that they are scum as it is SSK. Plus, I'll spend several sleepless nights if I help lynch a Nacho hydra and he flips town after he spent a ton of effort getting MC and I to stop tunneling and get the game back on track. So, what if he is scum? He'll still be here tomorrow as will all of us other than DOMO. We can persue it then. I see no reason to let SSK live another day based off of speculation that he may be protecting a buddy. I get DOMO's point that Casso could be a more important PR for scum but it is speculation and I am not convinced.

I am just waiting for DOMO to post all of the analysis he can before we move onto lynch.

Talk about the reasons for not leashing SSK if he's scum, and tying scum into suboptimal kills for a night.

Also, talk about your other scum reads.

[geists]

Bro, this is I'm not sure what - a warning I guess. I'm teetering on the precipice of massive paranoia about you.

Muffin, Desp, I've already fallen into the abyss. I would totally lynch either of you today.

[geists]

Talk about the reasons for not leashing SSK if he's scum, and tying scum into suboptimal kills for a night.

Also, talk about your other scum reads.

Weren't you the one who wanted SSK lynched today? Have you changed your mind? I mentioned it in 4545 although Cabd beat me to it a post earlier.

Hydra dissonance up in here.

Not sure about other scumreads right now. Cephrir is going to throw a fit upon seeing this but... I was waiting to hear back from you about your read on him?

I wrote an autobiography about my game with ceph before I went on v/la. I also posted a bunch of links to parts of Sakura games you asked about.

SSK and Casso are other scumreads.

So two scum reads?

[geists]

heh. it's kinda funny just how bad you are at reading me, nati

A
And how bad you are at reading me

[geists]

I was more saying ffery posted that quote.

I don't think my ability to read you is on trial here. It's almost comical and I'm not sure I want to learn how to.

[geists]

I'm surprised we haven't yet.

VOTE: Casso

[geists]

It doesn't help you live in upside down land.

[geists]

Mr. Flay might get mad at us for that.

[geists]

ps why are you helping us mislynch casso then? surely you don't think muffinscum and despscum would be bussing nachothorscum right now

Hydra dissonance. Nati may be right, but I'm not feeling scum-nacho here. Not feeling town-nacho either. It's hard to explain but the proportional effort going to developing reads vs defending against the wagon just feels off.

I think Nacho usually has more of a "best defense is a good offense" approach when he's being run up.

That's really the main niggle I'm dealing with atm.

[geists]

I can't remember if Ffery helped town run Nacho up in Hard boiled. This isn't quite like Wisdom's game or 1429. 1429 was because Nacho was going after low hanging fruit and flip flopping on a newbie. Open was a messed up noisy game.

I didn't. My vote was on salmonella dr at the end of that game day IIRC. I was considering a vote change, but wanted to synch with GiF first. I think that was my second game with Tammy, and I wasn't sure what to make of her case about Nacho being "robotic", but she seemed super confident of her read.

[geists]

Nacho's play here does feel kind of like where he has a strong spurt of "I gotta town this baby up, let's try to be charismatic in tons of walls via quantity and faux quality"...but then he starts limping off again and being helluva scummy

I also wonder how much of the scumreading is due to Thor being interpreted incorrectly as Nacho,

or them wanting us to intentionally interpret them as the wrong hydra head

.

Not getting any sense of the latter. Thorposts are obvious Thorposts. There's a chance Nacho is emulating Thor occasionally, but in our own Sangres games, I don't remember either of us ever claiming a post made by the other if someone asked, regardless of alignment.

And given how often I read "Is that a ffery post?", "Yes/No (as appropriate)", "VOTE THE FUCK OUT OF THE HYDRA" when town, it's commitment to transparency that drives me answering those questions at all.

[geists]

I suppose. I wish you'd have let him answer that. But I still find it weird because I don't feel like I benifitted from tammy's death, we'd be better off if she were still alive, so I don't see how that mindset is town.

I had a different interpretation of what desp meant. Won't elaborate until desp has a chance to reply.

[geists]

Yes, I do. I feel like it's a fake towntell, and how it was a pretty solid town move is beyond me when there were no votes on his wagon. If not a fake towntell, at least non-alignment indicative.

It felt real, and it made sense for GiF to get extremely frustrated when he was pushing a scumread on Varsoon, no one was listening, a fuck ton of wagons rise and fell but never came back to the SC suspicion he was holding for forever.

It felt real to me because I was seriously considering making the same offer to be the lynch at that point, and it was purely out of frustration with day 1. I felt lost. I felt like my hesitation waiting to talk to Nati forced SSK to claim, and at that point in the game I had no reason to think he was a scum doc. I felt like the SC lynch wasn't going to happen because you were opposing it. And I felt like all the lurky seemingly useless players were going to be impossible to lynch given the remaining time on the day 1 clock.

[geists]

ps why are you helping us mislynch casso then? surely you don't think muffinscum and despscum would be bussing nachothorscum right now

Hydra dissonance. Nati may be right, but I'm not feeling scum-nacho here. Not feeling town-nacho either. It's hard to explain but the proportional effort going to developing reads vs defending against the wagon just feels off.

I think Nacho usually has more of a "best defense is a good offense" approach when he's being run up.

That's really the main niggle I'm dealing with atm.

I feel completely buried at the moment, which is normally not something I have to deal with. Every time I make a post attacking, it's swept away, has no effect on the gamestate. I've been put on a serious defensive for reasons that I haven't come clost to understanding, and have been monitoring this game like I was monitoring Buzzword because it feels the moment I stop talking, I'm dead.

The reasons are mostly tinfoil hat.

Invoking that game causes very mixed feelings.

UNVOTE

.

VOTE: Desperado

[geists]

Bro, this is I'm not sure what - a warning I guess. I'm teetering on the precipice of massive paranoia about you.

Is this at F16 or me? Kind of hard to tell from context :/

It was at you, and it was in hope that you'd step it up and put some effort into the game. Your intent to blindly sheep DOMO rather than put some of your own skin in the game doesn't make me feel any better here on the precipice.

[geists]

Are you sure that's a scumslip?

Protip: It wasn't. Desp is just shitty at grammar, apparently.

Anyone who wanted to jump on that (who has English as their first language) should probably get at least a wagon tomorrow.

Good thing my vote has nothing to do with the "slip" then.

[geists]

F-16 your level of participation this game day worries me a little.

[geists]

Also, casso did I miss your post asoiaaf write up on Ceph?

[geists]

That makes sense.
I think old meta tells for you still apply (for the most part): in ASOIAF I noticed that you had a couple slow reactions there because it goes against your scum instincts (Benmage partial counterclaim instead of NO, FUCK THIS SHIT was the biggest one, but the way you treated me doubting you there as opposed to how you handled what you thought was me doubting you here is the other big one). I haven't noticed anything like that here.

I'm interested in what ffery thinks.

We knew his alignment in NY 167, so I know that my impressions of his play from that game aren't town-impressions. But, his stances, frustrations, ah ha's, you name it all came from such an authentic place in that game. I followed the asoiaf game but didn't fine tooth comb ISOs and reread and stuff. Your comments about his play there vs here make sense, though.

I just wish I was getting the obvtown vibe from NY 167 here.

[geists]

It's really easy to feel good about your position and obvtown when you're a vig.

For you maybe. For someone who was never a credible wagon through it all, I collected a ridiculous number of FoSes during the first 2 days of the Death's Diner game.

But, like I said earlier, the commonality between your two town games where you really did obvtown IMO is that you had a high stakes role in both.

[geists]

Casso would be an asset if they were town. I'm not feeling casso as a huge asset right now. I wonder why that is?

ffery, did you explain your interpretation of desp's comment? You don't seem to think it's a scumslip, yet that's who you're voting for.

I read it as "any scumteam you could construct from this player list would benefit from a dead Tammy-town."

I'm voting him because of his body of work in this game, which doesn't give me town-Desp vibes at all.

[geists]

Casso would be an asset if they were town. I'm not feeling casso as a huge asset right now. I wonder why that is?

ffery, did you explain your interpretation of desp's comment? You don't seem to think it's a scumslip, yet that's who you're voting for.

I read it as "any scumteam you could construct from this player list would benefit from a dead Tammy-town."

I'm voting him because of his body of work in this game, which doesn't give me town-Desp vibes at all.

is it still for the same incorrect reasons you gave to justify this narrative the last time?

This is me assuming you might be town:

You know that with the exception of a low probability corner case, I'm likely town. You know that my reads sometimes aren't terrible. You and I have worked pretty well together and actually identified scum before even in situations where the overall hydra relations were quite strained.

That's not the case this time. I've reached out a few times, gotten back "lolyerscum" mostly, and in circumstances where I don't understand why you would even have that read.

So, if you're town, help me understand why our useful communications and synchronicity of reads have been nonexistent. Explain why you didn't make a real effort to sort me or get me lynched on day 1.

Right now, it's you or casso. I vastly prefer your lynch over his because I've seen lots of town-nacho signs starting mid-late day 1 and never letting up.

If I think you're town I'll look elsewhere.

[geists]

That's not the case this time. I've reached out a few times, gotten back "lolyerscum" mostly, and in circumstances where I don't understand why you would even have that read.

So, if you're town, help me understand why our useful communications and synchronicity of reads have been nonexistent. Explain why you didn't make a real effort to sort me or get me lynched on day 1.

i saw something from nat early in the game--that i will not elaborate on--and haven't trusted you since

Ok.

Still assuming you might be town.

Whatever you saw, you've drawn an incorrect conclusion from it.

But, you have some reason for erroneously believing I'm scum. You have the idea that Sakura would manipulate her replace-out meta for this game (which I actually agree with, I'm not going to townbin-and-forget her this game). And those two players reading Nacho as town along with your own read, whatever is driving it, is such that you won't back off Nacho.

Which of the 3 is your strongest read?

[geists]

Nothing ffery has done has given you any sort of townread?

not really no

Did you always read the other head when we've played?

[geists]

Ffery are you confident Desp is scum

What the hell do you think I've been doing the last page or so?

Is Nat confident Nacho is scum

I'll ask Nati to answer this.

[geists]

UNVOTE

[geists]

DOMO you're making me cranky.

[geists]

This is me assuming you might be town:

Just wondering about what degree of uncertainty you are dealing with. Just like on D1 when you were telling me about under what circumstances you might be wrong about Sakura. there were 3 reasons

Finding town sometimes involves sonar. The echoes I've gotten back from Desp don't make me certain he's town. They do make me uncertain he's scum.

[geists]

Desp is there a reason why you're playing like this?

Nothing he's posted has shaken your read?

[geists]

I'm thinking really hard about Sakura.

I wish GiF were around.

[geists]

I would be happy to think harder about Sakura if someone could link me to a scum game where she acted like this.

I'm not aware of such a game, but I do feel like there's a meta-trajectory that will eventually result in such a game.

[geists]

Nothing ffery has done has given you any sort of townread?

not really no

Did you always read the other head when we've played?

dunno, but i'm not so much reading nat over you as i am finding something nat did really scummy and then you not doing anything obviously town to counterbalance it

The reason I asked was because if you're not seeing anything obviously town in my game it's quite possibly because you never have. But, I really thought that it was you townreading me on your own in the Space game. Not you reading Empire. And Not Mollie reading me. So, I can't really get wholeheartedly behind the premise.

[geists]

Can you link those scumgames where Sakura gave up and self-voted? I think I might be able to do a compare and contrast with her towngames to see if there are underlying motivations that can be spotted.

Here are a few games, scum and town.

As town: http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 9#p5222069 This was a self-hammer

As scum not faking it (I think) - http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 9#p5154079 This was L-1

This game is a twofer: As scum faking it (I think) http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 7#p5088017. As scum in the same game self-hammering: http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 8#p5103138

As town: this one seemed mostly frustration. http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 5#p5161695 and this one looked like pure fatalism. http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 6#p5215726


As town, to avoid a no lynch at deadline: http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 1#p5474281

As scum, self-hammer: http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 7#p5505567

As town, over a supposed scumslip: http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 1#p5266921

So, I've had a chance to look through all this and I am actually surprised you are still considering that Sakura could be scum. Her intent and motivation has always looked different as both affiliations.

I found the first self-hammer as town to be out a rather misguided sense that town will look into her reads when they see her flip.

The second town one was done hoping to get Wisdom to shut up with the self hammer being out of sheer frustration and anger at the town. That is what feels most similar to here.

The third town game, the deadline self-hammer was accompanied by a reads list. This was probably the most productive self-vote since she gave her thoughts and hammered in a calculated way to avoid a no lynch.

The last town game showed a sense of giving up and wanting out of the game.

Comparing with her scum games:

The first one is a bet meant to create scum theater with her scumbuddy Generic possibly. It carried a threatening tone.

The second one was an implicit threat to you saying that you should be lynched the next day upon her townflip, possibly meant to create doubt.

Both scum self-hammers seemed to be because she didn't think she would survive.

Overall, I am seeing that Sakura self-votes as town when she gets frustrated with everyone and generally doesn't try to wiggle her way out of trouble. As scum on the other hand, her self-votes (minus the self hammers) are more manipulative meant to subtly threaten, cast doubt and cause people to feel pity. As scum, she seems to be expecting a response whereas as town, she merely expects to get lynched and get out of the game.

In this game, he ragequit while being flashwagoned at deadline seems overwhelmingly of the town variety of getting frustrated and wanting to give up. I expect Sakura-scum in the same situation would have said something like "lynch Casso tomorrow when I flip town."

She has completely different mindsets as town and scum. Thanks for posting the links. I am now a lot more sure Sakura is town. Your thoughts?

My qualm is that this is manipulable, and she's been manipulating her play/meta in other ways.

Nacho was right about Mac. I'd much rather lynch someone he's totally behind lynching today.

[geists]

You think she is aware of those specific differences that I pointed out?

Yes to most of it. Maybe all. It's not like some of these links haven't been plopped into other games and discussed before when she's gone fatalistic or threatened to replace out.

[geists]

Do you have links to where this was discussed? I'd like to see how much self-awareness there is.

There was a huge discussion about it in the FEA game right after she self-voted and then said she was replacing out. I think my earlier link is very close to that. I think I was the first to say whoa hold on a bit this could be town fatalism. Cabd later agreed, but he was thinking it was scum-motivated at first.

There's also a discussion in one of my scum games where I defended the heck out of her apparent fatalism related to offering to be lynched in Cabd's place. She later said it was fake - she wasn't townreading him that hard until after he reacted to a fake inno crumb she left on day 2. This is where my defense started: http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 9#p5347879

[geists]

The reason I asked was because if you're not seeing anything obviously town in my game

it's quite possibly because you never have.

But, I really thought that it was you townreading me on your own in the Space game. Not you reading Empire. And Not Mollie reading me. So, I can't really get wholeheartedly behind the premise.

probably so

So how did the Street Hassle townread come about?

[geists]

Sorry mate

I don't care. Sometimes they are, sometimes they aren't. I don't expect you to hi5 and say "hey domo you're fucking awesome" if I'm right, you're obviously going to tell me I'm wrong because either I am or you want people to think I am.

The main problem I have with some of your reads is that they're web with Nacho in the center. Even if Nacho is scum (which I doubt, but you already know that), not all reactions/interactions you've pointed up are going to lead to scum. Town players sometimes have a pretty strong "wrong place, wrong time" syndrome to their stances, and even to their arrival and vote timing. Bad reads, coincidental timing, etc.

Also,

@bert

you asked if Nati is sure that Nacho is scum. He is not sure. In fact he agrees with me in thinking that Nacho is town. He had other reasons for putting that vote down when he did. Which is a relief to me because I thought we had some major hydra dissonance going on.

Nati feels like desp's posting looks pretty fake and I'm not so happy with how my thought experiment went, so I'm going to go ahead and do this:

VOTE: Desperado

[geists]

Way to ruin a reaction test guys.

[geists]

Way to ruin a reaction test guys.

It was about as obvious as faking a day vig.

All fakehammers are pretty obvious. They still work sometimes in terms of getting reactions.

[geists]

VOTE: SSK

[geists]

SSK->Bert->massclaim

That's the plan going forward.

[geists]

Chat as needed, but just know that we've talked and we're not moving our vote until he's dead.

[geists]

I'm pretty sure I want to sit down and do what we did on day one of 165 but this time it won't be scum me shaping your reads.

Good.

I have to slice my time among a shitton of games so it won't go fast.

[geists]

Chat as needed, but just know that we've talked and we're not moving our vote until he's dead.

Never mind then...one more game day, I shall endure this game that woefully pains me.

Explain this plz.

[geists]

Sure. When you're ready, name a day and a player.

zmuffin, bro, SER, Norlkaz, bert, pieguy, Cephrir

More or less in that order. SER and Norlkaz mostly because I'm horrifically unfamiliar with their play.

Sleeping on it, Nati and I still feel like this is town-Nacho. I hope we're right.

Can probably start tonight. I'm looking at isos for another game atm.

[geists]

scroll wheels come in handy occasionally.

[geists]

A good muenster makes everything better.

[geists]

You think she is aware of those specific differences that I pointed out?

Yes to most of it. Maybe all. It's not like some of these links haven't been plopped into other games and discussed before when she's gone fatalistic or threatened to replace out.

So, I've had a chance to go through FEA where Sakura self-voted and the ensuing discussion. It seemed to be geared more toward how quickly she gave up in the FEA game as opposed to her usual scum meta of battling wagons for a while which you mentioned happening in Duck/Goose. In this case, she did give up very quickly which I read as null because either she is town and gave up or she is scum and is trying to emulate what she learned about her own meta in FEA. But my other point about her attempts to manipulate as scum (that weren't present as town) weren't brought up so I am not sure if this is something she would be able to emulate. You also mentioned in that game that she self voted for reasons that didn't make sense. I doubt she is consciously aware of the points I brought forth and we look for very different things when we meta-dive.

We do look for very different things. You also put a hell of a lot more time into it than I do. I pattern-match. You try to delve into the thought processes.

And the newbie 1436, you linked her town and scum fatalism but didn't exactly say what differences you found so it would have to take some intense reverse-engineering to figure out what you were referring to and work backwards to see what behaviors caused you to develop that read. I guess it is possible. I don't think it is likely.

Keep in mind I was scum in that game, and I wasn't actually developing a read. I knew her alignment. It was a retread of my FEA read, modified to fit the game state.

Her scum fatalism is more tactical. Her reads as scum are more tactical and shallow. The thing I don't like about her in this game is that her read of me was a retread (see why it bothers me?) of her day 3 read in Newbie 1436, where she was concerned that I didn't do a full-blown trajectory analysis on a game with so few players. I had tried something different in the FEA game, and I think the results weren't too bad in retrospect (it picked up scum-notsci but we lynched another scum player that day and lynched notsci on day 2). But, with all that effort tying trajectories to VCA, I don't think it showed me anything I didn't already know from living in the game thread. It might have made a case on notsci stronger if his lynch hadn't gone through pretty easily.

Anyway. In Mini 1522 I think it was bert who called me out for not doing any trajectory analysis in that game. Unlike the newbie game where I threw some analysis together when I was asked, in the 1522 game I said no, not doing that kind of analysis this time. She also knew I'd declined to formally analyze trajectories on a deadline day 1 lynch wagon in the Marketplace game when ProHawk asked to see it.

And yet, in this game she trotted out the same argument - that not doing formal trajectory analysis is a scum tell for me. That's bullshit. She's been in games where I emphatically said not doing that right now when asked, and that's why her day 1 stance on me reeked.

THERE IS NO SUCH THING AS FFERYLLT'S FORMAL TRAJECTORY ANALYSIS^TM. It's an informal, organic process. If it's relevant I mention it as part of my read on a player or I question the player on their stance change. If it's highly relevant it shows up in my case for the player's lynch.

[geists]

Sure. When you're ready, name a day and a player.

zmuffin, bro, SER, Norlkaz, bert, pieguy, Cephrir

More or less in that order. SER and Norlkaz mostly because I'm horrifically unfamiliar with their play.

Sleeping on it, Nati and I still feel like this is town-Nacho. I hope we're right.

Can probably start tonight. I'm looking at isos for another game atm.

Have you changed your mind on Sakura?

Not really. See my previous post. I still have her down as questionable and I don't like that her day 1 pseudo-blacklist tell is being used to town her so emphatically.

[geists]

But I'm not townreading her for that.

What are you townreading her for?

[geists]

I've done some reading. I agree SSK is today's lynch. I still want Casso and Cephrir dead.

Today, my task is going to be over figuring out that messy pile of people I don't really know about.

P-EDIT

CASSO NO ES TOWN

STAHP

I think he's town.

I'm remembering some monstrous disagreements on reads day 1/2 of the Hyrule game.

[geists]

The reason that made Sakura use that tell.

Explain some more plz.

[geists]

What do you think of F-16 not being in any major d1 wagons ever?

It's interesting.

[geists]

Hi.

The scumteam is Bert/Cass/mafiassk/BRO.

gg.

yes/yes/yes/no.

So close to competent. So close...

pedit: That's worth basing your argument on. 5 demerits to you.

Do shit today, ok?

[geists]

What do you think of F-16 not being in any major d1 wagons ever?

It's interesting.

Wtf? You've played with me enough to know that I am really slow to vote.

That was Cabd's cue for "but is it scummy?"

You are slow to vote. So am I. And yet I (not just Nati) moved our vote around more than a bit on day 2.

What kept you off the major wagons day 2?

[geists]

What kept you off the major wagons day 2?

Just didn't feel like voting any of them until the SC wagon at deadline.

That was day 1.

[geists]

That was Cabd's cue for "but is it scummy?"

It certainly doesn't fit the "effortist" set.

effort doesn't necessarily equate to voting the big wagons early or w/e.

[geists]

What kept you off the major wagons day 2?

Just didn't feel like voting any of them until the SC wagon at deadline.

That was day 1.

Mostly the same reason.

KBBQ is correct that you're not putting the level of effort into this game that I saw from you in the three other games we've played.

[geists]

What kept you off the major wagons day 2?

Just didn't feel like voting any of them until the SC wagon at deadline.

That was day 1.

Mostly the same reason.

Also, I dunno. I feel like the intense drive to solve the game and sort people that I saw in our previous games isn't there.

But...holidays. And large game.

Have you played many large games before?

[geists]

KBBQ is correct that you're not putting the level of effort into this game that I saw from you in the three other games we've played.

I have been putting in plenty of effort in a disjointed way at trying to read various players. I have read other games of Pieguyn's, Varsoon's, Tammy's, Sakura's, Generic's, Cephrir's.

What I haven't been doing is to unify all of it to do a POE analysis and solve the game. It is lot harder in a large. The games you've played with me, there were 6, 13, and 9 players respectively. In the 13 player game, I didn't replace in until the end of D1, and didn't start putting in massive effort to solve the game until D3 where there were 9 players. I had quite a few solid townreads D1, and had it been a micro, I would have pegged the scumteam by then. But there is this vast gap of null players and I don't know where to start. And each time I feel I have a solid lead, something else makes me doubt my read - like your points on Sakura, or Tammy's gut about Desperado.

I also haven't adamantly pushed players that I wanted to push - in normal circumstances, I would have pushed SSK/Cephrir harder on D2. I think I am playing with far more players that are better than me than I usually do. I tend to be average or somewhat above average in skill for a regular playerlist. Here I think, I am definitely in the bottom half and reading players is really hard. For instance, I don't even know where to start reading people like zMuffinman, GuyInFreezer, and to some extent Cephrir. I feel their scumgames are way over my head. I also think pushing lynches I want is harder with better players. In the games we played, that wasn't the case. In the Newbie game, it was just me, you, Bert, and JKLM doing most of the talking so I had a lot of influence. In the HP game, there were several people like Toomai, Rach, Amrun, and JacobSavage who really weren't active at all, so I had to step up and take the lead to some extent. In BBMolla's Doctor game, there wasn't anyone I thought was town that had differing reads from me and a much better scumhunter than me. I was very, very certain they were all being stupid/headed on the wrong track with respect to Pitoli and the GF tell so I tried to strongarm a different lynch through. The situation here is really different. It is much more similar to BB:HoH mafia where I sat back and let the Imperium hydra do all the scumhunting. Also, Tammy being killed N1 was demotivating. She was obvtown, easy to work with, and gave serious consideration to all of my reads.

Ok.

It doesn't always work because scum often get brought into the fold, but a true, functioning townbloc in a large game starts with sometimes just 2 or 3 players who are confident of each others' alignment. And they work outward from there into an eventual web of mutual townreads and expands to reads of players you trust are town and think can read some of the outliers better than you can. And what's left is mostly scum. Mostly, but not all. And it's key to bring in solid town reads - and I mean solid townreads - faster than the townbloc is being decimated by night kills.

Sounds easy. Sometimes is easy. Sometimes is impossible.

I think we can do something like that in this game.

[geists]

f-16 you're forgetting that Bert puts in less effort as scum b/c of personal reasons.

Explain how this works? Examples?

Because Mala's Castle Mini game is calling you and wants to talk about bert's "less effort as scum".

[geists]

UNVOTE

I swear to god if you guys lynch SSK before the Ent Moot is done your eyes will feel like they're streaming hydrochloric acid when you finally get a peek at the dead thread.

[geists]

Silver lining is Nacho is probably town for that D1 wagon on SSK and may find us another scum before all is said and done

no he isn't

like three of us have already said that push

doesn't preclude the possibility

"doesn't preclude the possibility" does not equal "scum".

You're not making a case. You're yelling I'M RIGHT LYNCH HIM.

Plz come up with something more convincing than this because what you're doing just makes me want to ignore you about him.

[geists]

I said yesterday that I didn't have anything that concrete.

I said today that I plan to focus my attention elsewhere.

If you haven't read what I've said then how would you know whether I have or have not said anything convincing about him?

The important thing here:
I really don't like people coming up with townreads or scumreads for shitty reasons like that, regardless of who on.

Speaking of which, I need to go back and see who was of the opinion that that Desp statement was a scumslip.

That's right. No case. No explanation. Aside from bald assertions he's scum and comments about wanting him lynched before you get back from V/LA.

It reminds me of other games we've played. :/

It reminds me of other games I've played with town-Nacho, too.

[geists]

Some of my hydra games have been 99.99% fferyllt posting, including game days (and in one case an entire game) where only I posted. It wasn't alignment indicative. the FEA game had 2 posts by the Syr head of rift IIRC, both of which were made on day 1. I died night 3.

I actually think that scum-Thor would be quite active in a game.