NY 169: The EPIC XD Mafia Game of Greatness (Game Over)

[Empire]

Day 2, Votecount 23

MafiaSSK (6)

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geists, Desperado, Casso the King of Seals, Sakura Hana, Bert, Cephrir

Casso the King of Seals (4)

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goodmorning, DOMO, Norlkaz, BROseidon

Bert (2)

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KoreanBBQ, Ser Arthur Dayne

Desperado (1)

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MC Maraca

Ser Arthur Dayne (1)

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pieguyn

Cephrir (1)

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F-16_Fighting_Falcon

Not Voting (3)

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MafiaSSK, zMuffinMan, Generic

With 18 alive, it takes 10 to lynch! Deadline is on January 11th at 10:10 AM EST (expired on 2014-01-11 11:10:12)

Mod Notes

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Generic is V/LA until Sunday.

[Generic]

Which brings us to casso then. By the reasoning both you and bro presented the naked votes from bert and hana are the most telling with regards to casso protection, especially bert who came off the casso wagon.

Can you see a bert and casso scum link in this though?

[geists]

If Bert is scum, then the paranoia direction arrow is going to be permanently reversed and he's going to hate playing with me forever more.

IOW I think he's town.

[DOMO]

The thing with casso is... if he's town, why the fuck would scum rather see SSK die today? I can't help feel that to assume casso is town is also to assume SSK is town. It looks a lot like SSK is a preferable lynch for scum than casso is. This for me indicates that casso is scum.

I had to reset my router so that last post has come up in pedit ten minutes later!

I've not got close to sorting bert yet. He seemed super town through d1 but today I'm not so sure. I can't put my finger on why. I intend to have a look at him after casso. I'll get round to finishing casso before I go to bed. Right now it wouldn't surprise me if casso and bert are indeed scum with SSK.

[DOMO]

Oh yeah bert voted SSK quickly after SSK claimed gesists as his action, and then bailed to casso when it looked like casso was gone. That really stinks if casso and SSK are both scum.

[DOMO]

We're looking at 4 or 5 scums, right?

I think casso bert SSK look most likely, with people like pie, ceph and SAD making up the next group.

[DOMO]

bert's votes for SSK and casso would not be hard bussing, it would be opportunistic bussing. Much easier than hard bussing. Had he been relentlessly on their case from their frist scummy comment, then maybe it's harder to see them all as scum. Let's take a look at bert's early interactions with casso and SSK...

[Generic]

I think you nailed my current thought process there DOMO, but your second group has two guys who I really am struggling to read one way or the other. Cephrir and Pieguyn have both seemed town recently. I would look at putting SAD in with the first three and working with them for the time being. For a 5th I wouldn't completely rule out koreanBBQ for an outside bet either, and muffinman I simply don't understand at the moment do have kind of ignored what he's doing.

[BROseidon]

We're looking at 4 or 5 scums, right?

I think casso bert SSK look most likely, with people like pie, ceph and SAD making up the next group.

Probably 15:5.

Possibly 15:4:1 or 14:3:3, which would require that a kill was blocked last night, or both targeted Tammy.

[DOMO]

Yeah there's certainly a fair few who fall into the next group of potentials. BBQ being scum isn't all that ridiculous, but his self vote on d1 looks good and that alone has me more worried about ceph and pie. But you're right, both of them have had glimpses of town and I'm by no means confident on either.

I've skimmed a 3-way ISO between casso SSK and bert and there wasn't a great deal of interaction. That I think makes me a little more suspicious of them. There's little bits where they don't seem to be buddying, yet they don't attack each other full on. It's like a perpetual state of null while focussing on other people.

Yeah I'm really liking casso SSK and bert tbh.

SSK in partciular is very likely scum from that skim, but we knew that anyway. He's not acting like an outed town doc. He was pretty involved to begin with but since his claim his interest has dropped. That's not very pro town at all. He's scum. I still don't think we should lynch him today though.

[DOMO]

I'll say this - if we lynch through SSK casso and bert, and get three scum flips with no scum doc, lynch the shit out of geists for not supporting the casso wagon. That's the only reason I can think of that geists should be lynched. I would not suggest a cop wastes a look up on her.

[Cephrir]

{casso, bert, desp} would be my first guesses

Why not Cephir?

wait wtf why are you thinking about things the same way I am.

Please stop being too much the voice of goddamn reason. I'm already getting scum vibes from you for the same reason I got scum vibes from Desp in Anything Goes.

Which I know is wrong, but my gut/paranoia are still very strong.

Just because it's out of character, or...?

The thing with casso is... if he's town, why the fuck would scum rather see SSK die today? I can't help feel that to assume casso is town is also to assume SSK is town. It looks a lot like SSK is a preferable lynch for scum than casso is. This for me indicates that casso is scum.

I had to reset my router so that last post has come up in pedit ten minutes later!

I've not got close to sorting bert yet. He seemed super town through d1 but today I'm not so sure. I can't put my finger on why. I intend to have a look at him after casso. I'll get round to finishing casso before I go to bed. Right now it wouldn't surprise me if casso and bert are indeed scum with SSK.

Will you please stop looking for associative tells with players who aren't flipped yet. You're pushing yourself deeper into a circle of paranoia every time you do this.

I'll say this - if we lynch through SSK casso and bert, and get three scum flips with no scum doc, lynch the shit out of geists for not supporting the casso wagon. That's the only reason I can think of that geists should be lynched. I would not suggest a cop wastes a look up on her.

You have a bloody gunsmith innocent on them. We are not lynching them. Those three are not all going to flip scum, and I say that without even taking my reads on them into account, it's just not gonna happen.

[DOMO]

The more I think about it, the more obvious it is that SSK is scum. I'm a claimed gunsmith, what am I doing? Trying to figure out as much as I can before I egt NK'ed. I have a sense of obligation to do something useful before my failed crumb fucks me. SSK spewed out a doc claim on d1 and then loses interest. There is a distinct difference between the attitude of myself and SSK, and that I suspect is because we have different motives, and thus differing alignments.

But if SSK is scum and casso town, why the sudden derail of the casso wagon for SSK when SSK is a claimed town doc?

pedit - no I will not stop doing that ceph. I will likely be dead tomorrow, I've got little choice but to make assumptions based on flips yet to happen, and you insisting that I don't do it is somewhat alarming.

[DOMO]

You have a bloody gunsmith innocent on them. We are not lynching them. Those three are not all going to flip scum, and I say that without even taking my reads on them into account, it's just not gonna happen.

And you totally missed the context there. IF WE GET THREE SCUM FLIPS WITH NO SCUM DOC is quite an assumption to make. I just wanted to get this out there because I won't be alive to make this point if it actually gets there. No scum doc after three flips should start to worry the town if geists is still alive.

[DOMO]

Actually ceph is probably town. What benefit does scum have telling the most obvious NK to stop making assumptions? He's obviously gonna get told to shut up. Scum are more likely to currently be either buddied to me, indifferent or ingnoring me imo.

[geists]

You have a bloody gunsmith innocent on them. We are not lynching them. Those three are not all going to flip scum, and I say that without even taking my reads on them into account, it's just not gonna happen.

And you totally missed the context there. IF WE GET THREE SCUM FLIPS WITH NO SCUM DOC is quite an assumption to make. I just wanted to get this out there because I won't be alive to make this point if it actually gets there. No scum doc after three flips should start to worry the town if geists is still alive.

And this kind of paranoia, if it takes hold is pretty much the only reason I'd be alive 2 game days after this one. And I won't be surprised if such paranoia does take hold - I remember vividly how being alive 3 days after claiming tracker in the NY 165 game affected the remaining town players. And you should too. You were one of the scum players tending that paranoia.

[geists]

well, not so much tended as planted. You replaced out not long after I claimed.

[Cephrir]

Actually ceph is probably town. What benefit does scum have telling the most obvious NK to stop making assumptions? He's obviously gonna get told to shut up. Scum are more likely to currently be either buddied to me, indifferent or ingnoring me imo.

I feel compelled to point out that I have in fact been buddying you all day. You really should use your time more productively though.

[Generic]

Also DOMO, you need to get the geists paranoia out of your head.

In a game this size what are the chances you hit the only role you feasibly will read a scum player as town with?

PoE alone says that's not even worth discussion until later in the game. And if SSK is town doc then you are unlikely to be there for that chat, as he can't las forever either from a lung or a night kill.

So we are saying SSK is off the table for today, I'm okay with that although a part of me wants him dead to stop the wifom that surrounds him.

So the push is for casso based on reactions when his wagon reached a high level? I need more if I'm gonna push to take out one of the stronger players in the game. I want to see scum play, and so am going to look at the cases presented.

Desp, what's your opinion of a casso lynch?

[DOMO]

It's weird that you don't acknowledge that three scum flips and no scum doc flip means that the clear on you is less reliable. If there's only the scum doc to find then it's obvious that my clear cannot be relied upon; it's still pretty unreliable with two left.

That reaction plus your lack of casso support has me paranoid I checked out the scum doc.

ffery, why do you suppose casso's wagon collapsed in favour of a claimed doc? Does SSK not look like a preferable lynch for scum than casso does?

pedit - generic, the chances of me actually checking out scum doc on n1 is 1 in 20, but that increases alarmingly the longer geists is left alive with no scum doc flip, and geists is using my paranoia and a former scum game of mine to move me away from that line of thinking. It almost makes me think that geists anticipates a situation where she is still alive and no scum doc has yet been killed.

PoE alone says that's not even worth discussion until later in the game.

I won't be around then.

[DOMO]

1 in 18 actually, there's a lynch and me that aren't getting looked up. Maths fail.

[DOMO]

This fit of paranoia of mine is only relevant if we get to late game with geists still alive and no scum doc flip. I won't be around in late game, obviously. Just remember this discussion if it reaches that point.

[Generic]

It's weird that you don't acknowledge that three scum flips and no scum doc flip means that the clear on you is less reliable. If there's only the scum doc to find then it's obvious that my clear cannot be relied upon; it's still pretty unreliable with two left.

That reaction plus your lack of casso support has me paranoid I checked out the scum doc.

ffery, why do you suppose casso's wagon collapsed in favour of a claimed doc? Does SSK not look like a preferable lynch for scum than casso does?

pedit - generic, the chances of me actually checking out scum doc on n1 is 1 in 20, but that increases alarmingly the longer geists is left alive with no scum doc flip, and geists is using my paranoia and a former scum game of mine to move me away from that line of thinking. It almost makes me think that geists anticipates a situation where she is still alive and no scum doc has yet been killed.

PoE alone says that's not even worth discussion until later in the game.

I won't be around then.

Well I get what you are saying with regards to having your voice now. What I'm saying is have faith in us to also take that in. Geists survival will be spun with wifom like he SSK thing is, but I for one if I can get that far won't let them snake out of it (I had them pegged as scum day 1 after all) .

Right now though we aren't lynching them are we? And since SSK has already expressed a link to them by claiming them as the protection target then expressing still some doubts about them today doesn't sit right... But again they aren't a lynch option, PoE says they are more town than quite a few others at present.

What do you make of SAD in this equation btw? Cephrir makes the point not to put associative tells in until we have a confirmed flip, which I understand, but I like to consider a grouping for scum and work off the one who seems to have most links feeding in as in general they will be the best lynch and give us breadcrumbs for a few other lynches.

Wih that I need to get some focus. Vote will come later.

[geists]

It's weird that you don't acknowledge that three scum flips and no scum doc flip means that the clear on you is less reliable. If there's only the scum doc to find then it's obvious that my clear cannot be relied upon; it's still pretty unreliable with two left.

That reaction plus your lack of casso support has me paranoid I checked out the scum doc.

ffery, why do you suppose casso's wagon collapsed in favour of a claimed doc? Does SSK not look like a preferable lynch for scum than casso does?

pedit - generic, the chances of me actually checking out scum doc on n1 is 1 in 20, but that increases alarmingly the longer geists is left alive with no scum doc flip, and geists is using my paranoia and a former scum game of mine to move me away from that line of thinking. It almost makes me think that geists anticipates a situation where she is still alive and no scum doc has yet been killed.

If you don't see the parallels between the scenario you're painting and NY 165 then I can't help you.

I don't expect to be alive on day 4 or 5. If I'm doing my job right as a semi-cleared town player I shouldn't be, barring some unusual game-state changes between now and then.

I realize my ambivalence about the Nacho wagon is not making me any friends. I don't care. I'm more concerned about mislynching again than I am about what town thinks about me at any point in the game except LYLO, which I won't see this time. I'm more concerned about mislynching than about being mislynched.

I'm not happy with our vote on SSK, but I will note that without that wagon's resurgence and the casso counterwagon you wouldn't be poking around and thinking about these scenarios so maybe Nati's vote wasn't such a bad idea.

[DOMO]

I'm happy to drop the geists thing now. That was my gut reaction and it needed to be aired. I hope to be proven wrong. If we lynch scum doc then geists is 100% cleared unless we have a SK to find too. I only think town should start to worry about geists after 3 scum flips.

I really don't know how to sort SAD. I gave him a lylo win because I was so sure he was town. I'm kind of leaving him to those who can read him better. He's currently in my pool of people to look at tonight, but if I think town will lynch him in the next day or two then I'll look elsewhere.

If you don't see the parallels between the scenario you're painting and NY 165 then I can't help you.

I do see the parallels, I just expected some kind of acknowledgment that the unlikely situation I described would mean that you should be under suspicion. tbh I think if you are scum doc then I cleared you too early for it to work for you, so I'd be happy.

I want to let go of this though, I've shared my concerns and realise that it's unlikely.