Open 512: See Nine Plus Plus (Game Ovah)

[Titus]

VOTE: Glass

Random vote. I have my eye on CherryPepper though.

[Titus]

@Cherry: Because I wanted to see what people would say, mostly. Everyone always says they are town. Mixing things up gets the game rolling, don't you know?

@Glass: Well, glad I found someone else who's read all of it. I really like those two works. Anyway, to the game--why is hydra voteswapping scummy?

@Saki: Looks like Haruko from FLCL, but I know that's not the case. Also, got anything to say about the game-state?

@Titus: Not really a random vote if you're laying a vote on a player who's posted a few times so far and read the thread to this point. What's suspicious about Cherry?

My first post, I always include a vote on a player that hasn't had any pressure on them thus far. Who that is, I figure at random, so I considered it a random vote.

As for Cherry, I did feel the vote swapping thing was a little suspicious. I'm not used to dealing with hydras though, so I'm not really sure how to read those players yet. Any player I'm not sure how to read yet, I'm naturally a little paranoid over.

[Titus]

@Pasche: Heya! Sorry I placed out of the last game we had, but couldn't handle the work-load. Glad to see you as conf-town here. Not sure if I agree with your Saki point, since I've seen plenty of town cull votes for lynches in a similar fashion. Reads as null for me.
Which, you know, I could vote for because I don't like the process, but that's like the pot calling the kettle black. Eh, maybe I'm over-thinking it. It's 6 AM here, so I'll post when I'm more coherent.

You have seen the town push for a policy lynch this early? When?

Also, this has a feeling of buddying.

[Titus]

Titus and Pasch:
Do you think that Saki was being serious when he was pushing for a policy lynch?

I'm leaning towards Saki being serious but the guy trolls a whole lot. I can't tell yet whether it's his playstyle or him seriously pushing.

[Titus]

He's thinking, oh crap, I'm caught, better unvote. Pushing for a policy lynch this early would be problematic if confirmed town caught him. Of course, I am speculating here.

[Titus]

So why aren't you voting Saki?

I am not certain if he's scum. I am concerned if I jump on, more people might and the bandwagon might reach the point of no return. There are already a few people voting Saki. If I was certain Saki was scum, I'd vote him without caring if he might eventually wind up lynched. However, I'm not. If there wasn't already a train on Saki, I'd vote him to see what happened.

So, do you care to share this history with the rest of the class Varsoon?

[Titus]

L-3 isn't the point of no return. However, if more players jump onto the Saki bandwagon and become convinced, it would reach the point of no return. It's early in the day, let's keep our options open until we are certain someone is scum.

Yeah, I do think policy lynches are scummy. We should lynch who we believe to be scummy, not based on policy.

[Titus]

I don't like people who rely on history to justify a position without detailing that history. When I feel something is being withheld, I get aggressive.

[Titus]

Umm DP, Pasch is the innocent child. There is no probably town as far as Pasche is concerned. He IS town.

[Titus]

@Dr. Pepper/Glass, I fear the point of no return due to the value Saki provides if s/he is town. If Saki's town, that's a player unafraid to risk their own hide to try and catch scum. That's not someone we want strung up so early. Suspicious =/= scummy. I know I am suspicious of those with play styles different than my own. I try to only vote those who are RVS or who I am convinced are scum.

I'm sure my opinion on Saki will be clarified in a few more posts from him/her.

[Titus]

VOTE: Dyslexicon

I have no reason to believe this guy is town.

Aw, I'm too late to OMGUS this =/

Leaving my vote with Saki because worst town posts so far.

Ironically I think Saki's chaotic style is creating discussion and this generally serves town.

I like Flench for town.

Explanation for this?

Saki, has some rather chaotic/trolling posts, and gathered some votes for this. Somehow I don't think scum would be this out there from the start, but other than this I don't find it easy to read alignment in his posts.

Titus, seems overly cautious. I don't like that he forwards Saki being scummy, but also seems afraid that people will be convinced and the wagon growing. Also, I don't get how one can take the push for lynching all hydras seriously, I highly doubt it's going to be a popular idea any time soon.
Would you say you are a conservative voter?

VOTE: Titus

I am a conservative voter, but an aggressive pressurer and questioner. I wasn't pushing for a hydra lynch, as you properly saw. I just said I have no idea how to read hydras so they'll get extra attention from me. When I do vote someone, I want it to be clear why I'm voting that particular person with a logic that is clearly understood. I do agree with you that JMO needs to be pressured. I hate naked voting as it leaves little to analyze.

[Titus]

I do not believe in overthought/overanalysis, only good or bad analysis.

As for my meta look at newbie 1372 (town) and 1380 (ongoing but it's the only game where I've flipped scum on this site; i subbed in towatds the end of day 1). The bulk of my meta is at sc2mafia.com. The setup there is a bit different (24 hour days, more PRs), but that is where I have played the most.

[Titus]

VOTE: glass

Still, we'd like to know your reason for this post.

It almost sounds like you're buddying me jmo. You've mentioned me a lot with no direct questions.


@TunnelVision - Not Michael Jackson in my AV (at least I don't think so). I've never played with an innocent child either. I just play as if there's a non-existent sheriff who has confirmed the child as town. Also, if you have any questions, feel free to ask. Just because we have similar playstyles doesn't mean that you're prohibited from reading me.

[Titus]

Yeah pot calling the kettle black there with Glass/jmo. I also don't like this talk about me being an easy lynch target. Glass why did you vote me on 64?

The fair assessment of my experience is moderate level. I'm not a total newbie but I'm not an expert as to the ins and outs of this site.

I understand what you were saying about reading me now Tunnel. We like those who are like ourselves... there's a term for that fallacy. I can't remember it though. Oh well.

@Mod, Why is the deadline August 2nd? I thought games had a two week day deadline.

[Titus]

@jmo, No. Having a town read isn't buddying. Proactively defending me would seem to be buddying. I am interested in hearing you flesh out your reads on Glass as well.

@Paschendale, am I just being paranoid when I see possible buddying coming from jmo?

[Titus]

@Varsoon, can you leave a wall of text with all your reads before you go?

[Titus]

@Titus: My text-walls are typically 2-hour endeavors that mark up to 3,000 words in length and have always been, to this point, wrong.

So here's a quick reads list with no nulls, since nulls are for rubes.

Vote Me - Town. (Good responses, seems engaged, buddying perhaps?)
jmo16mla - Scum. (Is too curt, disengages hard, deflects hard, empty votes)
Glass - Town. (Highly analytical, engages with a pro-town mentality)
StubbsKVM - Scum. (One post? Lame.)
CherryDrPepper (hydra of Sakura Hana and DoctorPepper) - Town. (Hydra malarky is hydra malarky, but seems justified so far)
TunnelVision (hydra of Rank and likeabauss) - Scum (Two posts, seems like a fence-sitter. Wants to know what others think more than asserting himself. Grow a pair or get lynched.)
Titus - Town. (Engages with different players, isn't engaged in distracting meta-malarky, is to-the-point and pro-town about info gathering)
Paschendale - Confirmed Town.
Saki - Scum. (Might be village idiot. Vote hopping like no tomorrow and worse empty votes than JMO. My vote would be here, but I always feel naughty when I vote people on V/LA.)
Dyslexicon - Town. (Or, at least, is playing way more town in those two posts then I've ever seen the player play town. Really engaged and probing in the right areas, I feel. Also, to answer, it feels like no one else wants to pressure JMO or Saki for voting without articulation. That shit bugs me.)
oriole - Town. (attenative, albiet weaker plays so far. Worth keeping an eye on.)
Flench - Scum. (No articulation, stirs up the pot from time to time, highly reactionary in play rather than probing/info-gathering.)


Anyway, that's that. Thanks for keeping things in a row for when I head out, DBK.

Hope this helps, Titus.

Oh, also,

Unvote

I -really- want to vote Saki, but it's against my mojo to stick votes on someone VLA.

It does a little but you have far too many scums, but this is what I would have called a wall for this early in the game. Do you start from a position of scum? Five scum reads seems a little much, almost as if you're trying to avoid a null read because they are for "rubes" (what are rubes?).

I do see your concern Oriole. His first post was very buddying to me but maybe he is just publically trying to explain any hydra shift? I don't know. Varsoon worries me for another reason, because he's sent the group looking for meta (not my strong point, because I value it so little). If his comments are right about his role being obvious to anyone who has played with him extensively, then perhaps maybe someone who plays with Vasson extensively can just answer the question without looking through the meta?

[Titus]

The more I see. The more convinced I am Saki is indeed a mislynch. In post 35, Saki says "town points to whoever guesses my avatar". That's a pretty good way to trap newbie scum, because they will indeed guess at it. No one fell for it, but it was an excellent way to spark discussion. Saki also got voted up very quickly after Paschendale voted Saki. Flench's vote before Paschendale was a clear OMGUS. CherryDr.Pepper's next post was a sheeping post for the exact same reason as Paschendale's. I'm not sure if that's Sakuna's play to be a sheep, but Dr. Pepper wouldn't sheep like that. The attention on Saki is easy because s/he is afk.

Also, Flench v jmo looks like scum's in it somewhere. Flench, your posts weren't clear at all. In fact 39, almost looks like a slip. "Worst town posts so far"... how would Flech have known at the point Saki was making the posts that Saki was indeed town? Flench then says he mentions his scum targets in post 118, but it's not really clear who he FoSed at all. I think Fletch made a typo. Two posts up he says Varsoon and Glass are scummy. Still I really don't like post 39 upon further analysis.

I also don't like Vasoon's contradictions about meta.

[Titus]

Looking back I think my posts were pretty clear.

You meant post 116 is where you said people were scummy right? You typed 118.

[Titus]

Screw it I am finally voting.

VOTE: French

[Titus]

VOTE: Flench

There fixed.

[Titus]

Leaving my vote with Saki because

worst town posts so far

.

Agree Titus's vote did not seem random.

inb4 anime circles.

Oriole, what do you think of this? The bold and italics are my additions.

[Titus]

If there is another person besides jmo and titus who is confused by my posting I will take the time to explain it.

I still think it is clear.

If I'm not your scum target, as you indicated on post 116, then why wouldn't you want your posts to be clear to me? This sounds like a deliberate stall tactic.

[Titus]

@Glass, these are the posts I'm talking about with Varsoon being conflicting on meta.

Otherwise, people bringing up my meta are stupid--there's a huge thing I drop in every single one of my games that is a sure-fire way to tell my alignment. Therefore, anyone doing substantial meta work on me already know what alignment and role I am, and, furthermore, can explain -how- they know.

EXCERPT

Titus - Town.

(Engages with different players, isn't engaged in distracting meta-malarky, is to-the-point and pro-town about info gathering)

I -really- want to vote Saki, but it's against my mojo to stick votes on someone VLA.

@TunnelVision: Your first block of text is why I find meta ineffective. Because I have a controlled variable that gives away my alignment, I can change it at any time. It's a meta way of me causing trouble for people who rely on the meta. You probably wouldn't get it, since it might be too meta for you.

He tells us there's confirmation of his role in meta. Then he applauds me for not using meta. Then, he claims the whole thing is a way of causing trouble for relying on meta. That doesn't make sense at all, especially within 10 posts of each other.

[Titus]

I'll be V/LA (just from now until tomorrow), but I will say that I am probably never voting Varsoon ever.

I think I get this and it tells me a lot about the setup if accurate. I doubt you would be so aggressive in advertising as scum buddies.

[Titus]

@Pachendale, Slips are a weak reason for a vote? To me, if it's a confirmed slip, it's the BEST reason to vote for someone short of night action confirming them as scum. I understand that some disagree with me on that being a slip though.

I'm agreeing with Glass on jmo. There were examples of jmo buddying me along with the avoidance glass mentioned. He's my second suspect.

[Titus]

Ok, Varsoon has now picked up on the post where Vote Me said he'd never vote for Varsooon. Either Varsoon is tossing suspicion away from that conclusion so mafia doesn't figure it out, or my guess was wrong. We might see soon.

Why am I right for not trusting you Varsoon? That doesn't make much sense. That's not something players usually come out and say.

[Titus]

What do you mean by one of "THOSE" games? You never answered the question.

[Titus]

VOTE: glass

It'd be nice if you could explain your vote rather than hoping on a wagon with a naked vote.

VOTE: Jmo16mla

Explain your vote.

Wagon? He/she had one vote.

This still doesn't explain why you voted Glass. You've been repeatedly asked why you originally voted glass. Yet, you never did.

Also, why are people being little jackasses? Pressuring until an answer is given, is not being a jackass.

[Titus]

*Yet you never did answer.

[Titus]

That on Flench I did find suspicious, but I was wanting to see if someone else did as well. I don't want to tunnel someone for something that isn't suspicious at all. Flench says one more person is sufficient to make him explain. Dr. Cherry Pepper asks him to explain. He says nope, confirmed town understood. Flench is shifting the entire game onto one player's shoulders which is very very bad. I had a game like that where I was the confirmed town (off-site). It wasn't easy at all and derailed some from legitimately scum hunting.

I did also miss 104. My apologies.

[Titus]

I am agreeing with all the suspicion towards Varsoon right now. However, I think there's a possibility Varsoon is trying to draw a bit of scum attention to himself deliberately. I'd explain why, but that would totally ruin what he's trying to do. The hints are there suggesting why Varsoon is doing this. If only town figures this out, the better we are though. Otherwise, we can be near certain that Varsoon will die tonight.

I also do not like a meta based argument, but I always hear everything out. What is Saki's town meta and why is this different?

[Titus]

OK I just spent forty minutes writing an extremely disjointed post that tries to explain whatever it is jmo wants to know.

It is very long and full of quotes that are probably messed up.

It probably won't help him understand at all but will I am sure will be more evidence for jmo to go after in this really annoying form of pressure that I see no end to.

I will post it at the request of Pasche.

Flench, Pasch isn't the only town in the game. You should post your thoughts so all of us can see them. Also, why do you suppose that your post will provide more evidence for jmo to go after? If your reasoning is sound, then it shouldn't provide any additional evidence at all.

Also, you're reacting to pressure "that you see no end to". Why wouldn't the pressure end of the questions are answered appropropriately?

This seems like a scum motivated post. I don't want to hunt unless town makes me hunt and this pressure is unbearable.

[Titus]

Flench, who's scum? you've been prancing around and not voting.

I don't understand this.

I mentioned who I thought was scummy in post 118.

I voted for Saki a long time ago and he has since disappeared. I don't think it's a good policy to remove my vote on someone who goes silent.

I have other leads and will make them known when I get more information.

Oriole, this post as well should be explained. Post 118 doesn't give a clear indication of who he thinks scum is. I'd guess he meant 116 but he's being a stubborn git and not confirming anything. That's what we've meant all along, just for Flench to be clear as to who he FoSes and the vote when he thinks someone is scum.

Instead, we get posts like 49 and 199 which both seem to be clear scummy posts to me.

----------------

@Flench,

OK I just spent forty minutes writing an extremely disjointed post that tries to explain whatever it is jmo wants to know.

It is very long and full of quotes that are probably messed up.

It probably won't help him understand at all but will I am sure will be more evidence for jmo to go after in this really annoying form of pressure that I see no end to.

I will post it at the request of Pasche.

Flench, Pasch isn't the only town in the game. You should post your thoughts so all of us can see them. Also, why do you suppose that your post will provide more evidence for jmo to go after? If your reasoning is sound, then it shouldn't provide any additional evidence at all.

Also, you're reacting to pressure "that you see no end to". Why wouldn't the pressure end of the questions are answered appropropriately?

This seems like a scum motivated post. I don't want to hunt unless town makes me hunt and this pressure is unbearable.

1. At this point he is the only town in the game that I know of, if you jmo and cherry are scum and are intentionally leading the convo this way then I would like a town to give his thoughts. I thought my reasoning was sound in my previous posts, why should that stop him or you? Everything in this long post has already been said, if you go back and read you should be able to understand everything.

2. I don't see jmo ever saying that I answered his questions appropriately.

3. What?

1. Paschendale is the only confirmed town, yet it's implausible to argue he's the only town in the game. You should want the rest of the town to understand you, and thus clarify if there are questions. The rest of your reply makes no intelligible sense on point 1.

2. Well that's because you haven't. Answer them honestly and the pressure diminishes.

3. Your posts seem scum motivated. You seem not to have any desire to scumhunt or be bound to your FoSes here. You say one thing (when someone else asks for clarification, I'll clarify) and do another (wait for Pasche to be confused). Basically, any question that doesn't come from Pasche, you are showing great reluctance to answer.

[Titus]

*Post 49 = Post 39

[Titus]

I really don't like meta arguments based off one game. My first game on this site, I was deliberately much more sheepy than I am normally until I found out the rules. I'm not saying y'all are wrong on Saki just that argument is terribly unpersuasive to me. I did think Saki was looking for tells with the whole "town points for whoever guesses my avatar". The problem is that was a little obvious.

@ Saki, Post 74 I answered the question about why I hesitate to get on bandwagons.

@Dr. Pepper/Glass, I fear the point of no return due to the value Saki provides if s/he is town. If Saki's town, that's a player unafraid to risk their own hide to try and catch scum. That's not someone we want strung up so early. Suspicious =/= scummy. I know I am suspicious of those with play styles different than my own. I try to only vote those who are RVS or who I am convinced are scum.

I generally take everything a player does seriously. Generally, players who take things seriously are actually most likely to be the town players rather than scum. Scum will dismiss gambits and other early forms of scum hunting as jokes quite frequently IMO.

[Titus]

Why didn't you just say that Flench? Making us jump through hoops to get opinions isn't helpful.

Who are your scum suspects now? Do you have any questions for us that would help you determine scum? Any players (besides the child) that you see as auto town?

I don't think you missed anything from Paschendale.

[Titus]

Flench in 223

Why would a mafia dismiss gambits and scum hunting as a joke? Wouldn't he want to cast suspicion on any non-mafia person that he could?

FoSing people for the first legitimate scum hunting would look really bad. Scum care just as much about discrediting legitimate scumhunting as they do getting other suspects. Discrediting scumhunters allows for scum to stay undetected. It's situationally dependent.

Anyway, enough theory. I'm starting to see almost factions occurring. Oriole, where do you stand? Who are your suspects?

[Titus]

Everyone who is voting for someone that no one else is voting for, supply some reasons.

My reasons for voting Flench

1) The Slip in 39

2) Post 199 - Seems pretty clearly written from a scum perspective, insulting his own opinions, saying he probably won't help etc.

3) His general behavior that Paschendale is the only town to clarify things for

4) His backtracking on clarifying who his scum suspects were when Cherry Dr. Pepper asked him to clarify.

5) A generally unhelpful demeanor towards the group and scumhunting in general (ex: prefers to talk theory rather than ask questions).

[Titus]

I think Saki's trying to say that CherryPepper's readlist is information over analysis. I'm not certain though. It seems like he's saying it's a wall without substance. That is a scum tell. Having actual new information, with unique analysis, is not a scum tell. Maybe Saki should take another pass at trying to explain the CherryDr.Pepper vote.

Hydras talking to each other is a major benefit if town, but a major hindrance if scum. That's because both heads can get together and stop each other from being stupid. I do believe they are allowed to talk to each other in a qt thread. I do think Varsoon should have his eye kept on in case I am wrong but I think he's town.

[Titus]

Hydra heads are just as much of a bonus as they are a drawback. It depends on the circumstances. I understand valuing any scumslip harder because they are hydras, but if they are town, that means we have an extra person solving the case with us.

I don't like the leap to discrediting here. Observing something might not mean the person is right or has all the answers yet. While I don't agree with Saki necessarily, I'm not certain he's wrong either.

Saki, take a stab at Oriole and Flench please. What do their behaviors tell you?

[Titus]

1. We've gone over that. I think it was. Some do. Some don't.
2. Wow. Another refusal and claim that others will do the work. Again, this thought is my opinion.
3. I never said you didn't want his opinion. My gripe here is that his opinion seemed to be the only one you listened to.
4. Post 170 is where CherryDr.Pepper raised his hand. It's clear that CherryDr.Pepper was indeed confused and wanted you to elaborate. The fact he said "*raises hand*" rather than I'm confused is rather nitpicky and farcial. I doubt you didn't understand CherryDr.Pepper was confused. Instead, you skipped over that anyway.
5. Missing something doesn't equal a slip. When someone brought that to my attention, I retracted my belief that no one had attempted to answer Saki's avatar question.


Care to give your opinions on our hydras Flench? Is there anyone besides Paschendale who you think is town?

[Titus]

Re: The *raises hand* thing.

Your post said that if someone else wanted an explanation then you would say it, my *raises hand* post implied that i was that "someone else"

-Sakura Hana

It's farcial to believe that could have been interpreted any other way. That's why I'm taking issue with Flench's ignoring of it and instead waiting for Pasch. He was basically ignoring everyone but Pasch, putting the game on his shoulders. Now that Pasch has called Flench out on that, maybe the behavior will change. We'll see.

[Titus]

Ok. What strange voting and reasoning do you see?

[Titus]

@Saki, your vote should be on the person who is most likely scum, not the person who you think you can convince us is scum. You shouldn't be worried about "convincing us" but just giving information right now. Plus, you want to prioritize a hydra solely because they are a hydra at this point. I hate policy lynches.

[Titus]

Totally ignoring convincing us wasn't the point. Yet, your vote should be on who the scummiest is. I find it odd that you are pushing a lynch on someone who appears to be wanting to draw attention to himself. Varsoon has pulled a lot of "OMG obv scum" moves right off the bat. Why? This is either ridiculously poor scum play or town trying to draw attention. I think I know why Varsoon is doing that. If I'm right, it might backfire... hard, because the play is too obvious.

I don't like your focus on convincing us. Your focus should be on finding the truth, which means availing yourself of the possibility that you are indeed wrong. You also demonstrate a sense of paranoia that indicates not agreeing with you = ignoring you. That's hardly the case.

[Titus]

Really, a prod dodge. (That's posting solely to avoid being prodded right?)

You could at least comment on what you think of Saki's latest posts. There's plenty that's happened that's worth commenting on. I really don't like a prod dodge right here.

[Titus]

Then why not include a post that says, haven't read, will post later? A prod dodge here suggests that you're just trying to lurk under the radar undetected. If you're not "in the position to read", then why not say you're on V/LA?

[Titus]

You're certain CherryDr.Pepper is scum due to a necroargument. That is very weak. I get the additional scrutiny because he's a hydra but I can't go that far. I'm not certain CherryDr.Pepper is town. I don't think readlists are that obvious to detect town versus scum though either. Can you find me a readlist of Cherry's that seems to be faked or somehow otherwise scummy? (That seems to split the baby here. If CherryDr.Pepper is certain that scum can be caught in readlists, he wouldn't mind an effort by someone to try.).

I know not everyone is active as me Saki but I find it odd that you utterly dismiss the possibility that a prod dodge can be scummy, especially when you were just complaining how people dismiss your arguments out of hand.

[Titus]

I like how active this thread got while I was out for a few hours. Lots to read and comment on.

@Varsoon, what exactly is the "too town" argument? If you've got any questions, feel free to ask them.

@Stubbs, I actually don't agree on the Saki townread. It should be pretty clear from the context that I've wanted more evidence and words from Saki before being willing to lynch him. I've seen that, and I think he's defenses are much more like scum defenses. Thanks for putting words in my mouth. Your other leaning town read is also someone who agrees with Saki being town. Of course, then there is Saki. If Saki is scum, this almost reads like a buddy's defense here.

@Oriole, The difference between Varsoon is Varsoon is seeking the attention. Saki is not. Varsoon has been deliberate in his actions and the behaviors we see as scummy. Saki's behaviors feel more like slips and forcing scum reads. There's a difference between actively drawing attention and suspicion onto yourself and scum play. Varsoon's seems to be the former. Saki's appears to be the latter.

[Titus]

In 219, I hadn't said you were scum but I was starting to suspect that you were. I still think Flench is more likely scum than you, so my vote stays on him but if I'm needed to hammer you I will.

Saki, your behaviors (beyond the town points for guessing your AV) seem to be more reactionary than aggressive. For instance, Varsoon's meta conflicts were put there deliberately. You seem to be more OMGUSing, tunnelling and being wishy washy. For instance, you complain people ignore you but you let jmo go right on ignoring you. You claim your vote was on Varsoon because he was the most scummy but then say you didn't mean it when pressured. Varsoon's scummy behaviors seem to be independent of pressure and done whenever we quick focusing on Varsoon. Varsoon has also not tunnelled and seems to be putting forth much more analysis on players who haven't FoSed him at all.

[Titus]

I'm seeing Pasch and Cherry disagreeing on Flench and Stubbs. There are far too many neutrals on the list for my liking though in Cherry's to determine the full extent of their disagreement or agreement. There seems to be enough here for me to believe that Cherry isn't just sheeping the innocent child though.

[Titus]

This post is a perfect example of why you are scummy Saki. You are making conflicting points within the same post. You're saying that you want us to listen to you but you also say some of your posts were meant as a joke.

It's not pressure/without pressure totally. It's whether the scummy behavior seems part of an overarching plan. Yours does not seem to be. The whole reaction fishing with Varsoon would have meant more if you had actually kept your vote on Varsoon long enough to gather his reaction. The claim just doesn't pass the smell test to me.

Town points for guessing your AV was one of the more towny things you did if you meant that seriously. I cannot see why you want me to take that as a joke.

When I look at the reads, I'm looking for the most part at the categories Dr. Pepper and Pasch selected. Their conclusions are alarmingly similar and there's a whole lot of nulls. Occasionally their end results do diverge somewhat so I'm not certain Cherry is sheeping Pasch. I think Cherry's thinking for himself at the moment just because the reasons where Cherry agrees with Pasch seem to have a little meat on their bones.

[Titus]

@Saki,

Again, you seem to want to have your early posts go two ways. 1) Your early posts were a joke. 2) They were an attempt to spark discussion. To me, both of those statements cannot be true. If players treat your statements as jokes, there will be no controlled chaos type discussion.

Post 210 just says to me "Hey, if you find something scummy, it was reaction fishing". Yet, your vote on Varsoon hardly seems like reaction fishing since you unvoted him before he even replied. Voting someone just to get someone else interested? In what? This seems more like you wanted Cherry to respond so you could attack him. There's a slim chance you are really hydra paranoid but it just doesn't make sense.

JMO seems like a null read on Pasch's list despite how much he hates nulls. I brought up my own opinion on what CherryDr.Pepper said regarding his reads because I'm doing my own scumhunting. CherryDr.Pepper and Pasch seem to mention almost the exact same behavior in their reads. Occasionally, they'll intepret the behavior differently but they seem similar enough. I don't think it is a sheep though.


-------------------------

I take the lurkers on a player by player basis. Vote Me, for instance, is the most likely town of the lurkers due to his strong stances before he started lurking due to his V/LA.

The best way to pressure a player is very player specific IMO. I wouldn't pressure you the same way I'd pressure Saki for instance. Almost universally though, the best pressure is one the player doesn't see coming.

I generally look for language based tells, logicial inconsistencies and tunnelling when looking for scum. When looking for town, I look for evidence of aggressive questioning, no fear of being lynched and logical thinking in the actions the players take. Trolls are particularly hard for me to analyze because they don't fit nicely into my boxes.

Supposing I've never played with a player, the person starts as a null. If I respect a player's skill, I generally start them as a little more suspicious. If I feel like the player is not exactly coherent, I'll start them a little more as town. Regardless, I try not to vote a player until they give me a scumtell in one form or the other unless I know I'm standing in the way of a lynch and the town needs information.

"Regarding Saki, do you think 'the slot' is scum/why so?" Rephrase this please.

[Titus]

Yes, I do feel Saki is currently scum. He seems to contradict himself very frequently in his posts. Since the start of the game, he seems to have wanted to lynch CherryDr.Pepper but I can't see why. I'm not certain CherryDr.Pepper is town, but I don't get the laser focus. He also seems to not do well under pressure and has an almost why me attitude about his posts. He doesn't seem to be exhibiting tactics that would gain information over the long term, despite his claims to the contrary. Your questions seem to definitely lead the group to more information. Saki also seems to not like it when questions don't narrowly focus around the points he wants to make.

Now, I have some questions for you, most of them are basically the same questions you asked me, but I am curious.

1) About how many games have you played? Have you ever played on other mafia sites?

2) What do you look for when determining alignment?

3) Do you start players off as null/scum or something else?

4) When if ever do you find it appropriate to speculate as to the setup?

5) What do you think of Oriole?

6) What do you think of our lurkers? Do any of them stand out?

7) Do you have a standard method of pressuring players?

[Titus]

@Saki, you seriously make no sense whatsoever. Why put yourself at L-1?

@Varsoon, you missed my questions.

[Titus]

@Varsoon, nevermind just saw them. Thanks.

[Titus]

I'll vote you and immediately change back to Flench if it's just a numbers game Saki, or you could just consider my vote "on you" for purposes of claiming if you really want to claim.

[Titus]

@Saki, how am I responding to your posts if I'm not reading them? I'm legitimately confused by the behavior you are displaying... threatening self-voting, inconsistencies, claiming things that are visibly untrue...

[Titus]

I've always said I am willing to lynch you.

VOTE: Saki

Claim, since you've said you want to. You should leave out the self-vote though.

[Titus]

Why am I scummy Saki, beyond the fact that I find you scummy?

There's about a fifty percent change of a town roleblocker being in the game (.95^11). It's much more likely a scum roleblocker is present in the game. I believe you are a roleblocker Saki, just the scum roleblocker.

[Titus]

Roleblocker is an excellent fake claim for a scum roleblocker. After all, you just ask who did you roleblock and the scum roleblocker can give the same answer as a town roleblocker would.

I stand corrected on my math though.

[Titus]

I'd imagine a scum who isn't a roleblocker fake claiming vanilla townie or doctor. Those two are the easiest to hide as. Doctor, the scum can pretend to be incompetent. Without a tracker, townie can't really be disproven either.

You can't also claim my statistics argument as bad and then claim scum are unlikely to get a roleblocker. Three PRs is possible. In fact, that would be about a 50/50 shot.

Actually, Saki I didn't have you scummy for the whole game. I suspected you due to your opening but that's different than having you as scummy. You kinda volunteered to claim, hardly "jumping in for the kill". I also don't see your behavior as newbie town PR paranoia.

[Titus]

Why would you choose the single most unlikely possibility as a fakeclaim?

Why leap to claim if someone's indeed a roleblocker? I'm thinking Saki just looked and saw ooh I'm the scum roleblocker, better claim roleblocker if pressured.

[Titus]

Making you rush it, Saki? When someone volunteers to do something, I'll almost always put their feet to the fire.

I also think Saki's claim is something a newbie scum player would do. It's exactly what I would do if I was the scum roleblocker and I'm not an expert on this site.

There's not enough here to do setup speculation and be beneficial about it right now.

VOTE: Flench

Still think that guy is scum.

[Titus]

I don't like this whole claim situation. Saki, you shouldn't have put yourself into this situation, and I don't think your supposed tests and gambits are any good. All you've done is prove yourself a liability and a target. I hope you are fakeclaiming, and that you're really a VT, so you can lure away a night kill.

Titus, why Flench and not Glass? Make your case.

Glass, I'm not sure if Glass is town or scum. He could be scum. I am more confident that Flench is scum for the reasons I previously posted in Post 230. He hasn't posted since that discussion I believe, at least not anything of significant value. I'll almost always vote for who I suspect the heaviest of being scum. Glass I could go either way on at this point. French, I'm much more confident in my scum read.

[Titus]

VOTE: Saki

I highly doubt we have two roleblockers. It's theoretically possible we have two roleblockers.

[Titus]

Wow. OMGUS. You're not voting the guy who makes your claim improbable, instead you vote me.

[Titus]

I've been pretty clear that I've always thought Varsoon as town. So yeah, I trust my town read over my scum read.

[Titus]

I never explicitly said Varsoon was town. I kinda hint in this post that I suspected that Varsoon was a PR.

[Titus]

I never explicitly said Varsoon was town because that would throw off what I perceived his plan to be, look scummy enough to draw suspicion and avoid a night kill.

[Titus]

Read the above. Also look at the discussion with Saki regarding the differences in their behavior. I refused to say that Varsoon was scum, because I perceived a plan in his actions. If it wasn't clear that I was implying I saw Varsoon as town, I need to work on my implying skills.

@Varsoon, I would lynch you if Saki came back town. I find the odds astronomical that there are two roleblockers.

[Titus]

Talking with specific names might be problematic. The mafia might just pick someone else to send for the kill if we announce it in public.

[Titus]

@Varsoon/Saki, I definitely think we should look at lynching between the roleblockers. There is the alternative of just having the roleblockers block each other. That seems like a total waste though. I'd rather see someone who has flown under the radar or someone who has a lot of null reads despite being active be blocked.

@Dyslexicon, Enjoy the drink.

@oriole, what is your opinion on the two claimers?

@Saki, post 198 is two days old. That's not ooollld. My reads don't usually change on a dime. 219 doesn't say gambits are scummy. Way to misrep. There is no quote saying "gambits are scummy" because I never said that or communicated that. Post 262, since I suspected Varsoon of being a PR, I wasn't going to explicitly claim he's town. There was no conflict at all. I've hardly been tunnelling you, that's just where the conversation was. My other scum read has been suspiciously absent. Don't think I haven't noticed that. I've also tried to make sure everyone is giving their direct input and not going OMG! He disagreed, scummy.

[Titus]

This game will make me develop insomnia.

If Saki is town I don't know what a scum!Varsoon would be doing also claiming full roleblocker. Then again, he's already pretty much claimed scum Roleblocker in this thread, so...?

That's precisely the behavior that made me think Varsoon is a town PR, faking the extra scummy. He's done this since the start of the thread, while generally helping the town otherwise. He answers the "town points" question. He gives us the meta confusion, he drops hints that he's scum deliberately. Meanwhile, he's legitimately scumhunting and asking questions of people (note his exchange with me where he's paranoid and asks how I see things).

[Titus]

Titus: I got a question for you, you say that Varsoon has been acting scummy in order to attract scum attention towards him for being a PR, but why aren't you saying the same thing about Saki?

P-Edit: Varsoon: If you must, you should breadcrumb it somehow, not say it openly. I also agree that is a good idea to make it public.

Apparently, this has not been clear the other times I have answered this. Saki's scummy behavior has always been a response to pressure and doesn't seem to be part of an overarching plan. Saki seemed to be tunnelling you when you were pressuring Saki hard. Now that I am, I am scum. Varsoon has questioned and legitimately scum hunted. He's asking intelligent questions designed to get answers that will benefit town in the long run. Saki's posts seem to be more defensive and all about laying the groundwork that he's town rather than scum hunting. Saki's planting seeds that appear to be defensive. For instance, the claim that the Varsoon vote was just to look for your reaction. Varsoon's seem to be more systemic and planned out such as the meta inconsistencies when no one was really pressuring him, answering town points questions, etc.

Which claim do your head(s) believe is more genuine? Why? Do you believe any possibility that both are town or both are scum?

[Titus]

after reviewign saki's posts, she hasn't been constructive to scum hunting at all.

id like to see what she has to say upon returning to the updated game state before voting her this early in the game.

still not liking glass.

That's your last post of any substance and you're pushing for a Varsoon lynch?

[Titus]

Well, chances are, ones lying. Lynch one, flips town, lynch the other.

That's been my plan as well. Yet, you were arguing Saki was scummy but you switch to Varsoon.

There is a theoretical chance of three Bs. The odds of this are remote. I'd find it more likely that there are 0 roleblockers than three.

[Titus]

I believe you are town, but I'm not 100 percent certain. It's rather ingenious if there are no roleblockers. I'll speculate about every plausible possibility until I have eliminated it.

I am off to bed now. Later

[Titus]

Everyone else, especially Paschendale and CherryDP seem genuinely confused by the exchange yet Titus shows no sign of confusion as if he knows that there's scum/no scum between Varsoon and me.

I don't like that. At all.

That's a pretty big 180. Plus why would I need to be confused regarding a scenario already put forth to me multiple times.

In the rare event Varsoon flips scum, you can add vote me to the scum list. He was vouching for Varsoon even before I figured it out. Yet, Saki ignores this and FoSes me. Saki's FoSes are her attackers.

[Titus]

While your catching up, you should be aware Saki claimed roleblocker and Varsoon cced. Read the catchup with that in mind.

[Titus]

@Glass, be very careful what you say unless you intended to say what you just said. I'm not explaining that further in case I am right.

@Saki, how would lynching me confirm your suspicions about Varsoon? From your perspective, why not lynch Varsoon and then shoot me?

Also, my ambuigity was intended. I figured Varsoon was some sort of PR, so I deliberately never explicitly said one way or the other whether Varsoon was town. I tried to hint via context I thought he was instead. Proving Varsoon was town would be detrimental to his chances of survival if he was indeed a PR.

A pretty big 180 is when a player suddenly turns around and believes something they didn't before.

Never intended to dodge. How can you say I'm proactively defending Varsoon when you're also saying that I'm never clearly giving a position on Varsoon? The position is illogical. I'm not buddying I was just going along with what I perceived his plan to be.

I am conservative with my vote. I only vote people who I believe are scum or RVS for the most part. I rarely pull gambits with my vote or anything like that.

The thing is, I don't see you as a town PR Saki, I want to lynch scum. I cannot see a legitimate town roleblocker rushing to get his claim on the table.


@All, I'm suspecting jmo is on Saki's scum team. He's pressuring Saki but when the conflict comes up he forgets about Saki and votes Varsoon instead.

[Titus]

@CherryDr.Pepper, right no chance of three roleblockers according to the wiki.

[Titus]

@Glass, I think scumSaki claims roleblocker in this setup knowing there's little chance of a counterclaim (it's the least likely role). If no one counterclaims, Saki sails for a little while just because he is a PR. He can then say well WIFOM is why I stayed alive so long.

[Titus]

@Saki, I was not threatening Glass. I was telling him I noticed something in his posts and I don't think he meant to hint at it.

You also seem to fail with the context. The least likely role meant the least likely for town to be and therefore roleblocker is the least likely to be counterclaimed.

I townread Varson. I don't really care if I give off a townread (especially to my scum suspects). I'll do what I think is best for the town. If that means highlighting Varsoon's actions and moving on so he can live through the night, so be it.

The 180 was regarding your position on Cherry. Cherry's all scummy until he begins to hesitate voting you. Then Cherry's town.

[Titus]

@Saki, No. If I threaten someone, they

know

I am threatening them.

I don't see why a scum roleblocker would counterclaim a roleblocker here. It puts them in a 1 v 1 situation. Scum claiming roleblocker first is the most likely manuever there it gives many advantages with little likelihood of a cc at all.

I already did respond to the ambiguity many, many times. I thought Varsoon was a PR. So I'd highlight his actions and move on, to ensure Varsoon lived as best I could.

I wasn't being floppy. I figured no one would cc roleblocker, so I unvoted you. When it was Varsoon (who I pretty much knew was a PR role) versus someone I thought was scummy, I went for the scum PR role.

I still think Flench is scum or just horribly inactive town.

Mod, prod for Flench?

If you read Saki, you'd know I was a she.

[Titus]

Yeah, he's defending me because he's convinced I'm town. I can soft-confirm this because I'm convinced he's town.

Would you be happy with a titus-mislynch, Saki?

I'm saying that's buddying, clearly.

He's scum, dammit. Don't threaten me.

Wow. The five year old defense. Works wonders. Nothing in that post looked threatening at all.

I'm pretty certain Varsoon is town and your behavior makes no sense at all.

[Titus]

Well, shit, if Titus is scum, why is there only one vote on

him

P:EDIT: her?

Vote: Titus

(Sorry if I confuse genders on people. It's nothing personal, yo.)

Why did you vote me Varsoon? You're making no sense here.

[Titus]

@Varsoon, he thinks I'm scum because I don't go along with mislynches on you and Cherry. Nothing more than that.

Out of curiousity Saki/Varsoon, what are your reads on jmo and Flench?

[Titus]

I don't care if it raised a red flag. I wanted to see how far Saki would go in defending them to see if they were his scummates or not. The fact that Saki did not notice this possible deflection even furthers the theory that Saki isn't scumhunting at all. I deliberately did that.

I understand your concern. However, that would require the .3 chance that there's one roleblocker, assuming that, then there's about a 1/4 chance of a second roleblocker even if the first statement is true and the odds get dramatically lower for a third roleblocker... no I think it's astronomical that you are both town.

[Titus]

The first paragraph is @Sakuna-Cherry head.

[Titus]

@Mod, can a scum roleblocker roleblock a town roleblocker and vice versa?

Forgive the paranoia, but I'd rather have a host confirm.

I really don't like not lynching in a setup where there is a confirmed scum involved, especially if we have a mislynch. The only benefit to this plan I see is that scum would be silly to kill either of the roleblockers, leaving the roleblocker certain to live.

@Saki, If Varsoon is not a roleblocker, I cannot see why he would claim roleblocker falsely. I also cannot see why you as town would claim roleblocker falsely given the fact you wanted to claim. So no, I doubt that either one of you is town lying about being town roleblocker.

[Titus]

That's the point. One of you, Saki or Varsoon is near confirmed scum at this point given everything that would have to be in place for you to both be town. I believe the scum is you, but which one of you is not officially confirmed.

Why are certain parts of my posts bolded?

Not exactly. WIFOM occurs when scum and town try to figure out what the night actions are. It's particularly active when someone says "DOC on X". Does the scum attack anyway thinking the doctor goes elsewhere? Does the doctor heal someone else because that's where they think the attack will go?

WIFOM doesn't cover not attacking because of possibly outing a partner.

[Titus]

Not in this scenario. Someone wouldn't cc in order to attract a night kill. The confusion it would cause is too great.

[Titus]

@Saki, Are you stating you are vanilla townie trying to draw a night kill thinking you wouldn't get cced?

[Titus]

Now I see why setups on my other site insist on an Order of Operations.

I always considered that Varsoon acting scummy on the surface was his plan to survive the night as a PR. What I'm perceiving from him is wholly inconsistent with Vanilla Townie play.

[Titus]

I'm sneaking in a quick post here, but I'm busy for another hour or so...

My impression so far is that Saki's claim is real, Varsoon is fake-claiming town because ~reasons~, and while Titus is saying some things I disagree with that doesn't make him scum.

UNVOTE:
My vote on Cherry's a bit outdated.

Oriole, that doesn't make much sense. Why wouldn't Varsoon just withdraw his claim so we wouldn't inadvertently lynch Saki?

[Titus]

Saki, I'm thinking about risk reward here. Unless I was 100% certain the target claiming roleblocker was scum, I never would counterclaim as a townie. It doesn't make sense. The risk outweighs the reward. Varsoon seems to be having some doubts due to the possibility of scum passing through the night. The only way is doubts could be accurate is that one of the lurkers is a one shot roleblocker.

I asked because someone had reached a difference conclusion than me and I wanted to see why someone might do that.


Oriole, true but we have two roleblocked claimers to sort through both of which have left scummy actions. We have a lot of time to figure it out, so yeah I kinda see why we aren't close to lynching either of them.

Varsoon also isn't pushing for the reasons he just stated. He's worried we have a one shot roleblocker hiding in the shadows and that both Saki and himself are town. I absolutely discount this possiblity.

[Titus]

Varsoon could have a whacked out risk reward analysis but I don't think so.

Also, yeah Varsoon pretty much said he was paranoid that both you and Saki were town in 496. So I don't see you don't "get that vibe" from him.

A one shot roleblocker does not verify both of your claims as true. However, a one shot roleblocker is the only way both of you are town roleblockers.

@Stubbs, extremely outdated.

[Titus]

This setup is so counter-initiative.

We'd have to have three bs roll up regardless and I don't think three bbb are rolling in a setup like this. That's down in the 1-5% range IMO.

[Titus]

I just don't see the likelihood of two town roleblockers. It's theoretically possible but unlikely. The odds of two roleblockers is (1- .95^7) times (1 - .95^6) or about .3 *.25 = 7.5 percent of games having two roleblockers. I just don't see that happening here. Once you get beyond two, the odds are astronomically abysmal.

[Titus]

Since we have to get to three roleblockers being rolled, the odds dip to below five percent that both Saki and Varsoon are telling the truth.

[Titus]

Do you guys realize that we've been dwelving into setup speculation more than in actual scum hunting?

-Sakura Hana

We have indeed gotten distracted, if that's viewed as distraction. The slim likelihood of both Saki and Varsoon telling the truth is precisely what motivates me to want a lynch between the two of them.

@Saki, why did you lie to Flench?

[Titus]

Since we have to get to three roleblockers being rolled, the odds dip to below five percent that both Saki and Varsoon are telling the truth.

your conclusion is...?

One of you is almost certainly lying.

[Titus]

@Paschendale, I asked Saki that question directly. Saki denied being a VT.

[Titus]

I was expecting the same thing you were. Varsoon was a mason or other PR. Vote Me was the other mason or he figured it out.

I don't like Saki's followup but I'd put Tunnel as squarely town.

Mod: Would an innocent child know who the hypothetical masons were?

[Titus]

@CherryDrPepper I understand that fear. A tracker would be useful here but it's impossible. There's a greater chance of both Varsoon and Saki being scum than neither of them.

[Titus]

I never said it was likely but if scumsaki claims rb, scumVarsoon figues that one of the two could have smooth sailing for awhile. I think only one is scum but I would buy both as scum before both as town.

[Titus]

198 - That's where I'm stating that Varsoon is town drawing attention to himself but if I say that directly mafia will just shoot Varsoon causing him to die.

312 (308) - You link 312 which has nothing to do with Varsoon. Just below you're quoting 308 which I'm going to suppose is what you meant. That post is me observing what I believed Varsoon's plan to be. Draw enough scum attention that way scum don't shoot him.

Far too many numbers - I have no clue what your statement is here.

402 - I've always thought Varsoon's behavior was an attempt to avoid a nightkill.

423 - That's a response indicating what I thought the difference was between your behavior and his.

465/368 - No contradiction. Roleblocker is the least likely role to pop up so it's an excellent choice for scum to claim.

484 - I don't always get angry or OMGUS people who vote me.

484 - I voted you because I had a bigger town read on Varsoon and one of you had to be scum.

If you want my vote off of you, convince me Varsoon is scum. The odds both of you are town are abysmal.

[Titus]

I agree and have been saying everything you've been saying here, Dys. There's about a 1-3% chance that there are three Bs in the setup (required for two full roleblockers). I happen to think it's more likely Saki is scum rather than Varsoon due to the behavior, yet I'm far from certain on it.

The odd behavior from jmo makes me think he's Saki's scum partner. I'm not sure where that leaves Flench though because I like him for being scum too.

Varsoon, not manipulating you. In fact, I don't 100% trust you although it's much more likely you are town than Saki. What do you feel I am manipulating you about?

[Titus]

Ok, it looks like we may need Pasch to break the tie to decide what we are going to do. Tunnel, Dys and I seem to be in agreement we should lynch one of the roleblocker claimers. Cherry, Glass and Varsoon seem to be against that.

I'd say let's split the difference and look at some other suspects but carefully watch Varsoon and Saki's analysis. If either of them act scummy in their readings (separate from the claims) we should lynch them.

@Glass, I think scum looked at the odds of a 95 percent not roleblocker for each individual spot and figured no cc would happen rather than the aggregate which places about a 30 percent likelihood of a cc roleblocker claim. Still, remote enough for a possible gambit from an early claimer.

[Titus]

@Saki: Claims shouldn't be taken lightly, and there's never reason to vote yourself unless you just want to suicide and yell at town for being incompetent. Okay, well, I did that once, but, yeah, don't.

I kinda want to atm.

Bullcrap on you not wanting to claim Saki. That's all.

[Titus]

Tunnel, your large post before I said that showed me that you had been reading the entire thread and coming to the same conclusions as me independently regarding Varsoon's behavior and the possible situation there. The odds of someone scummy magically comprehending the same posts as I did for the same reasons but articulating that in their own words that didn't indicate a sheep. That's pretty town to me.

I'd like you to elaborate more on the possible scumVarsoon.

[Titus]

*The odds of all that happening and scum are bad. That was my point.

[Titus]

Saki, never take anything I say lightly unless I indicate it as a joke.

Your statement is also inconsistent. If you were "taking me lightly" why did you feel pressured by my vote change enough to claim?

Varsoon, link me anyway. I'm not sure how a gambit can get players modkilled. I want to see that.

[Titus]

Ok, it looks like we may need Pasch to break the tie to decide what we are going to do. Tunnel, Dys and I seem to be in agreement we should lynch one of the roleblocker claimers. Cherry, Glass and Varsoon seem to be against that.

I'd say let's split the difference and look at some other suspects but carefully watch Varsoon and Saki's analysis. If either of them act scummy in their readings (separate from the claims) we should lynch them.

@Glass, I think scum looked at the odds of a 95 percent not roleblocker for each individual spot and figured no cc would happen rather than the aggregate which places about a 30 percent likelihood of a cc roleblocker claim. Still, remote enough for a possible gambit from an early claimer.

try harder for towncred, Titus

VOTE: Titus

You missed trying to put this against me Titus

I'm not going to respond to a comment that's just an insult/mudslinging and wouldn't further the discussion at all.

[Titus]

You think it's me seeking town cred. It was me suggesting a course of action trying hard not to get caught up in the same course of action/tunneling. Not seeing much to discuss there.

You were not acting as scummy when I voted Flench for what I perceived and still perceive as a slip. You started acting somewhat scummy and wanted to claim, so I created the scenario to make that happen by voting you.

[Titus]

I didn't believe Saki's claim and that's why you're thinking I'm scum? I have to be missing something here Cherry because I'm not understanding your reasoning at all.

[Titus]

I might have suspected Saki if Varsoon never claimed but I wouldn't be voting him. It's hard to say what I would have done in a different scenario. Lynching an uncced PR is insanely stupid and far too risky so I definitely wouldn't have pushed for Saki's lynch.

Here, I think we should just lynch the scummiest between Saki and Varsoon due to the abysmal odds of having two full roleblockers. I think Saki is the scummiest. If I'm convinced that Varsoon is the scummiest, I have no problem voting him.

[Titus]

You think it's me seeking town cred. It was me suggesting a course of action trying hard not to get caught up in the same course of action/tunneling. Not seeing much to discuss there.

You were not acting as scummy when I voted Flench for what I perceived and still perceive as a slip. You started acting somewhat scummy and wanted to claim, so I created the scenario to make that happen by voting you.

Yes you're trying extremely hard for towncred. Deny it outright or accept it outright. Don't turn the question to something else.

So you going in circles about setup speculation with Sakura and oriole is not getting "caught up in the same course of action"?
Trying not to tunnel -- I guess that's why you traded questions with Varsoon at 321? Not buddying Varsoon?

I never wanted to claim. Please link me a post where I explicitly said I wanted to claim.

@TV You're scum.

Pretty sure you can put me in the always denying seeking towncred outright camp.

I already linked the post where you wanted to claim. See post 622.

@Saki: Claims shouldn't be taken lightly, and there's never reason to vote yourself unless you just want to suicide and yell at town for being incompetent. Okay, well, I did that once, but, yeah, don't.

I kinda want to atm.

Bullcrap on you not wanting to claim Saki. That's all.

[Titus]

You could have corrected that assumption, the numerous times I've relied on that. I've said you wanted to claim for pages now. Here's where you now claim that's never what you intended. Plus, why did you feel the need to self-vote yourself to get in the position to claim Saki?

@CherryPepper, I'm genuinely suspicious of claims that I feel that people want to make. I wasn't certain Saki was scum and I'm still not. I'm not going to just go, he claimed PR so he's innocent. I'll push until I'm confident either way.

I'm out for awhile

[Titus]

@Saki, I've always said that I felt Varsoon had a plan with his scuminess. If you can see/show there's no logical plan behind Varsoon's behavior, I'd be totally fine with lynching Varsoon. I just find you to be the scummier of the two. I'm not going to just ignore everything you say due to my opinion that you're scummy because I could indeed be wrong.

[Titus]

Back and I plan on this being the last post before I get off for the night. Posts 726 and 727 really confuse me if Varsoon is town. He should be annoyed at the implications that Saki is essentially calling him scum even if he votes me just because I believed that Varsoon was town. He's like oh well we'll deal with it if Titus is scum. That doesn't make sense. Varsoon is playing this way too cool for my liking. Saki (despite his hell vengence on lynching me) looks more town in the exchange because his emotions seem more genuine.

Also, what the heck is 729?

I also ISOed Saki a bit. What I observed was pretty clear. Saki has had three "major" FoSes throughout the game; Cherry, myself and Tunnel. Cherry was FoSed after he did his huge wallread claiming Saki was scum. I was FoSed after I said I thought Saki was scummy. Tunnel was FoSed after he said Saki was scummy. Is there anything to your FoSes Saki beyond the fact that people find you scummy? I don't know whether this is a newb town or newb scum tell but it's definitely newb something.

I'd really also like to see jmo's post on why he changed from Saki to Varsoon, that doesn't make sense to me.

Flench and VoteMe haven't really commented on what's happening here.

I'll take the night and reflect on this, see if I can come around to the perspective that not lynching Saki/Varsoon is a good option. I don't see it right now though.

[Titus]

Wow! Those last posts by Varsoon are epic buddying. "Thanks for being complaint" and the whole gist that some buddy has never put together a chart detailing relationships is absurd.

I think the effort by Flench is something not typical of the mafia. French would you like a link to a bbcode generator? That would make your pictures easier to understand.

VOTE: unvote

@Flench, why would CherryDrPepper hardbus Saki at the start which is what the pattern implies at first.

Saki's reactions seem town lately. Perhaps he has had an epic fail in communication and logic.

I am going to watch these two closely. I am still convinced lynching between these two is the best option.

@jmo, you never did vote Saki but there was a clear sudden shift from a Saki FoS to a Varsoon FoS.

[Titus]

I wasn't suggesting you were scum together based off what Varsoon said. I was calling Varsoon's tactics buddying, which is basically sucking up.

You could do that tactic again later. Looking for associations is very hard to hide Flench. Looking at voting patterns is pretty good. The mafia can't meta out associations. Facts are facts.

[Titus]

Scenario 3 doesn't give with your gut reads. I will look in more detail when I get back home later.

[Titus]

No, that was a reply to Titus.

I will grab the posts in your ISO that suggested you FoSed Saki and then did a 180 when I get back home in a few hours.

CCing a roleblocker as scum works in one of three instances 1) the ccet is pretty confident in getting the other guy lynched or 2) the ccer is the scum roleblocker 3) the ccer is the godfather

Scenario 1 – Difficult to determine if applicable. Requires someone willing to take risks. Varsoon is.

Scenario 2 – Being perceived as town gives the scumrber free range to rb almost anyone

Scenario 3 – Great in cautious group who like a guilty/inno cop result before testing. The cop will vouch for the gf and lynch the real pr.

Lastly, I know not everone thinks like me but logical fallacies will drive me nuts.

[Titus]

@jmo, here's the flip I'm talking about in your ISO. In 208, you say Saki isn't contributing to scum hunting at all. You pressure him for a bit. 263 is a prod dodge. 424 is jmo pushing a Varsoon lynch. There's two days between 208 and 263 but the flip in logic without posts indicating hesitation worried me.

@Paschendale, I don't think the course of action restraining me is a good idea at all. I'll make myself as muddy as possible to catch a scum or to verify if I am right about scum. Asking me to restrain myself in that matter is greatly inhibiting my scum hunting abilities and very likely to lead to my failure to comply. I will say one more thing I have observed today about Varsoon and it's the last nail in the coffin convincing me that I had it backwards and Varsoon is really the scum.

I find Varsoon's response disingenuous. He says he'll go along with your request but later tells Flench not to worry about posting too much. That tells me a) thinks your request is dumb like I do or b) he's buddying to Flench. If it's a) well he should have the balls to say it and get bitched at by a confirmed town. If it's b) buddying is scummy.

Varsoon is right that posts are good and should be encouraged, unless they have no content. That's what he should have said to Paschendale at the start.

I do think we should lynch between Saki/Varsoon and my vote will reflect that.

Beyond this, I will post only if someone asks me a direct question (and corresponding clarification) regarding Saki/Varsoon or if I am commenting on the lurkers for 24 hours. I do not agree with lynching outside of Saki/Varsoon but I can see where we would want to get the lurkers involved in the game.

Vote: Varsoon

[Titus]

**muddy as possible = muddy as required

[Titus]

@Saki, not exactly. Saki may be town but it's his own behavior reads genuinely as newbietown like he purports to be. He FoSes everyone who FoSes him which is newbie of some sort. He also seems to have the appropriate reaction of a newbie when called scum after he's claimed roleblocked. Saki struggles to make his points clear, but there's a good possibility Saki's town in his own right.

Varsoon reminded me of the geniuneness of Saki's emotions by being over the top fake.

There is the possibility both are scum but I'd say Saki's sufficiently moved into a middle ground territory. I'd use scum as the generic covering if there's an sk or not.

[Titus]

**That last response was directed at Sakura not Saki.

[Titus]

@Varsoon, I was making my opinion, I wasn't intending to build a case. The whole point is that Paschendale was sick of us arguing against each other. It wasn't that we hadn't said enough supporting our positions. I wasn't building a case, otherwise I would have included every instance of being fake and buddying that I've ever seen.

Buddying is scummy by nature if you shouldn't have logical confirmed knowledge the player is town. Also, buddying is not a trap. That's ridiculous. Like you said, players on the "second level" would think you were scummy. I'm not even sure what the second level is.

Really, I suppose you have objective this behavior = %scum. You shouldn't and I highly doubt you do. That's ridiculous. A lot is context dependent.

[Titus]

@Cherry/Varsoon - This is exactly what Paschendale did not want y'all. Let's leave it where it is.

[Titus]

@Varsoon, so which is it? Is Saki a VT or his is a townroleblocker in your opinion?

Also, please define second level versus third level thinking in terms of how you're using them (i.e. not an answer like the staircase). Are you referring to game theory?

Mod: Can we have a prod for VoteMe?

[Titus]

And how would the map look for you? You've mentioned you're playing on third level but third level seems to be a scum play.

[Titus]

I thought you were stating you were doing third level play not fourth?

Also who fits your definition of a lurker what standard are you using?

[Titus]

I am trying to get it myself. Without that, I cannot understand Varsoon's defense.

Let me be direct Varsoon. Who fits that standard for you for lurkiness, active or otherwise.

[Titus]

lurking

I feel obligated to fling shit back at the lurkers and provide a giant wall since everyone loves them so much, but I'm lazy.

Split the difference and put a wall about the lurkers?

What do you think of Paschendale's post not to talk about each other? (Question will not have follow up unless clarification on your thoughts is needed)



@Varsoon, Occam's (spelling off) Razor might be a better way to explain what's going on. It seems like everytime someone says something that might be scummy, your response is to call them scum and/or say it's a higher level of wifom. This is play more consistent with newbtown which you are not. Can you boil this levels thing into something relatively simple?

Also, what do you have to say about the 1% chance that both you and Saki could be roleblockers? Given there's no certainty in mafua, why not find the scum by lynching between the two of you. This isn't a scenario where there's even a 25 percent chance of two prs which would change the play dramatically.

[Titus]

@Paschendale, I don't see anything crap with Tunnel's post at all. Point 1 should have been the focus over point 9, but highlighting contradictions is usually a scum indicator if there is no reason for the switch, but language based tells are lower forms of evidence and should be relied on if no other evidence exists.. Looking at a player's tone can be very indicative of their alignment (ex looking for escape hatches). That's the very argument Tunnel is making in his post to me.

Also, why is Saki less believable than Paschendale regarding the claims?

@Tunnel, Please elaborate on Point 1.

[Titus]

*Why is Saki less believable than Varsoon?

[Titus]

Tunnel you missed my request to elaborate on the contradictions that Varsoon made.

[Titus]

The confusion regarding the middle part was due to a typo. That should have read "Why is Saki less believable than Varsoon?" I tried to clarify that in 830. Pasch said "However, I believe his counterclaim more than Saki's original claim." and I want to know why.

I'm looking forward to your wall Saki. That disagrees with my interpretation of the lurkers. I wouldn't even consider TunnelVision a lurker.

[Titus]

I'm looking forward to your wall Saki. That disagrees with my interpretation of the lurkers. I wouldn't even consider TunnelVision a lurker.

What is your interpretation of the lurkers?

Scummiest

Stubbs - Prod Dodges, Promises Content Never Provides it
VoteMe - Says he'll never vote Varsoon and leaves
JMO - His votes and FoSes don't seem to have a solid basis
Glass - He seems to have logical thought behind his posts, but something just doesn't feel 100% right about him.
Tunnel (if you count him as a lurker)
Dyx (technically lurker but his posts are all logically sound and full of content)

[Titus]

The confusion regarding the middle part was due to a typo. That should have read "Why is Saki less believable than Varsoon?" I tried to clarify that in 830. Pasch said "However, I believe his counterclaim more than Saki's original claim." and I want to know why.

I'm looking forward to your wall Saki. That disagrees with my interpretation of the lurkers. I wouldn't even consider TunnelVision a lurker.

asking this again
Wasn't Paschendale saying Varsoon was less believable than my claim a few pages ago? I thought he did.

Why would you not consider TunnelVision a lurker?

Maybe he did. Perhaps Pasch is confused. I don't know.

TunnelVision has posted daily and all of his posts further scumhunting in some form or another. He's posting strong theories with little "escape hatches". He seemed to be aware and reaching similar conclusions as me. I could see the point of him scum sheeping me (highly improbable though), but he's not lurking.

[Titus]

I don't see where Stubbs promised content; where is that?

I had my games wrong. Change Stubbs with JMO on my scum list. He's promised content in another game I play with him. I should probably go through and do a wall myself to see if any of my other lines are based on faulty memory.

Still, I don't like the lack of questions/investigation from Stubbs in his ISO. It's frequently summary from him.

[Titus]

@Varsoon, your statement is loaded, implying that I'm not even investigating anyone else. I focus wherever I see bad logic take me and search for whatever the truth may be. I've commented on what I see from the other players. I feel, however, that it is utter foolishness to not push a lynch between the two of you given the high likelihood that one of the two of you is indeed scum. Of course I investigate others, but there just won't be a stronger position for a lynch on day 1 between you and Saki.

As for getting the lurkers out, let's try to keep our posts concise with a lot of information in each post. Taking the same content and spanning it over many posts can make people see "5 pages again really" when that content could be two to three pages. I know I'm far from perfect (realizing typos after posting) but that would be great if we could keep the double posting to a minimum.

My wall will come later today/early tomorrow.

@Paschendale, would you like me to put up my case on Varsoon with my lurker wall?

[Titus]

@Varsoon, the amount of scum is unknown but three or four I believe. If four it would be 3 mafia and a serial killer.

Reading between you and saki will give valuable information based on voting patterns for the group. Lynching between the two of you will be my primary focus because of the belief I feel it would be stupid for the town to do anything else as town. There's a less than 3% chance (probably closer to 1%) that both of you could be town no matter how convincing your arguments are. I'd take those odds to lynch every time in a game of mafia.

That doesn't mean ignoring everyone else however. Highlighting the inconsistencies and rapid defending/attacking of other players is something that would be beneficial to determining the scum teams, likely other scum and actions everyone would take at night.

@Paschendale, understood. I'd be putting up now but I have dinner with the in-laws in an hour or so and I want to make this clear.

[Titus]

Lurker wall

VoteMe - Has all of five posts. Last two posts are VLA status. He hasn't posted for three days. So he has three "legitimate" posts. His first post in the game, VoteMe says he's never voting Varsoon. In his second post, he's enquiring about something being different than Varsoon's usual town meta. However, to have a read that you'd never vote someone this early, you'd almost have to know their meta backwards and forwards. There is some hint of scumhunting but overall, I'm getting a scum vibe. If Varsoon is scum, Vote Me is almost certainly.

Stubbs - Far too many of his posts are about prods and VLAs. There is some scum hunting going on here though. Some of his posts have no point to them. Ex: Something about his reads kicking the game in higher gear. Barely leaning scum here.

jmo - buddies me early, cannot remember who he has fosed, seems to shift wildly between players without much thought shown... scum or newbtown are most likely options here.

Glass, seems to be pretty town for a lurker. Lots of scum hunting and logic but seems to have vanished altogether. However, it wouldn't surprise me if Glass and Varsoon are scum together given his posts defend Varsoon a fair amount. I don't like Glass's criticism of CherryPepper for wanting to consult his other head before voting.

Mod: Can we get a prod on Glass?

Dyslexicon - Town. Painfully town. She has very few posts but all of his/her posts are spectacular. I don't know what Dyslexicon needs to contribute more but whatever s/he needs within reason, it should be strongly considered.

TunnelVision - Most likely town. TunnelVision has said his playstyle matches my own and he sees the same issues I see a lot. Unfortunately, this makes me really tempted to lie and see if he sheeps with me or not. There's no point to this on Day 1 but I'll have to scrutinze him closer. TunnelVision's votes are thought out and he emphasizes the wrong point from time to time. I do that sometimes myself. Which one of you is number 1 (the hydra head with the playstyle like mine)? I don't see him as a lurker, but some do so I put him here.

[Titus]

Just realized Flench was cut off from my copy-paste.

Flench - Null read. I thought he was scum at the start due to some of the language he used but his associations seem well thought through, even if I disagree with some of them. I'll want to see how he acts in the future.

[Titus]

The Case for Lynching Varsoon

1. The lynch should be between Varsoon and Saki because there is about a 1% chance of them both being town. If they both were town, I should be getting a lot more encouragement on this point. Given there is NO certainty in mafia, this is as close as we are going to get that one of the two is indeed scum. Furthermore, a scum player would know they'd be lynched if the other one dies.

Varsoon as scum -

Meta Contradictions - Varsoon contradicts or at least confuses the issues here regarding meta in posts . In 127 he says anyone reading his meta can know what alignment

and role

he is. I looked through Varsoon's meta. I haven't found a roleblocker yet. In his next serious post (132), he labels me town for not being concerned about the meta. Post 135 he gives a "firm middle finger" to anyone who uses meta to read him. Those posts take place within 24 hours of each other. Posts 127 and 132 are within two hours of each other.

His interactions with Saki - On post 180, Varsoon votes Saki as a pressure for a player on VLA. He maintains his vote there the entire time and throughout the CC process, by that point Saki is posting and contributing. I would expect town to have some vote flipping as they investigate. As we all know, Varsoon didn't CC Saki with fire and brimstone. First he asked if it would be a bad time to CC. Really, who gives a crap if it's a bad time. Having all the information out there is helpful. He seems to go back and forth. Before Saki's claim, Varsoon was convinced Saki was scum. In 280, he really pushes a Saki lynch hard. After Saki's claim, Varsoon leans Saki's scum. Later on, he pushes the line that Saki might be town along with him (despite the one percent probability of that), unless Varsoon is a vanilla townie. Varsoon refuses to claim that. Later, Varsoon is convinced Saki is town and a roleblocker and that he is too. At some point, he should be angry or doubt Saki's town status. Yet, with each passing day Varsoon becomes more convinced. He says that he won't put a vote on Saki ever? That doesn't make sense. Town should not be closing off avenues for voting someone unless they are the innocent child, dead or in most cases, cleared by a confirmed cop. The refusal to consider Saki as scum looks more like an exit strategy in case Saki flips town or gets killed at night.

Suddenly shifting read on me - Varsoon has gone back and forth on my town/scum status repeatedly on Day 1. He opens with me as town, and later says that he starts with players as scum until he can confirm them as town. Post 180, Varsoon says I'm right for not trusting him. 280, Varsoon uses the "too town" argument for what? Saying he needs to be paranoid? He's still convinced I'm town until post 580. Around that point, is when I start to look at the numbers and know that either Varsoon or Saki is likely lying. Post 604 is a load of contradictions I'm a suspect who is town and Saki is a believable town who is scum. That sounds like someone obfuscating any legitimate form of a read. Post 692, Varsoon is upset with Cherry for fueling what he's arguing as a three way town fight. Then, in 715 he says he sees the arguments that I'm supposedly scum. Towards the end of the day, he's second guessing the Titus wagon. It seems like Varsoon is going whichever way the wind blows.

Total Lack of Anger or Passion - Varsoon was easy going with his claim, he's easy going with votes placed on him, he's emotionally distant while buddying. He's not getting upset with confirmed town players when he feels they are doing something not smart.

Not Reading the Setup - I don't buy anyone not reading the setup. It's one thing to miscomprehend but I don't think anyone deliberately ignores the setup.

jmo - Varsoon is pushing a jmo lynch hard. He's been pushing it since the start of the game due to a suspicious vote jmo made at the start. Given jmo's lurkiness, Varsoon is said almost all of us think he's scum but yet only one votes him. True, but Varsoon didn't exactly change over his vote. I'm not as sure on jmo being scum as I am with Varsoon being scum, so I'm not voting jmo. I'm pretty sure most of us feel the same way. The jmo thing just seems to be going back to a target of convenience and then baiting us by saying we all agree.

Village Idiot (VI) play - This seems to be an almost universal excuse. Oh I'm just playing the village idiot, don't mind me.

Second/Third/Fourth Level Play - This seems to be a deflection. I'm a village idiot pretending to be something pretending to be something else pretending to be a roleblocker? I don't get this at all. It's not clear and it looks to be a deflection/obfuscation mechanism along the lines of village idiot.


----------------

Notes on Saki

1) Definitely Newbie Something - All of his major FoSes voted him at some point. This seems to not be smart for scum. If Saki is scum, he's extremely newbie scum. However, if that's the case, I would have expected something along the lines of a slip by now. I haven't seen anything like that.

2) Wanting to claim/Not wanting to claim - Giving Saki the benefit of the doubt and that he's a poor communicator, he walked himself into a position that caused me to trigger his claim. If so, that is consistent with town motivation. By claiming so early, we could turn the lynch train onto someone else.

==================

Risk reward factors for both

Supposing one is the godfather, this scenario is excellent for them. The cop checks them, they are legitimate and the town believes that the 1% scenario actually happened. This is especially beneficial if the Godfather gets us to lynch outside of the two of them. This analysis also applies to the investigation immune Serial Killer. There's only one setup where neither a GF or Serial Killer is present, and multiple where both are.

In the rare event both are scum, they don't want us to lynch either of them. If we do, that's no problem, the other is "confirmed" roleblocker. Also, since we don't get messages when roleblocked in this version if roleblocked as townie, it's harder to prove there is a roleblocker in the game at all.

Roleblocker is the perfect CC for a scum roleblocker.

The biggest hurdle is neither Saki nor Varsoon seem to be attacking each other. I find this EXTREMELY odd. One of them could be a little nuts but both of them? With such long probabilities of them both being who they say they are? Varsoon especially worries me. I doubt Varsoon wins as many games as he does by totally ignoring the likelihood of the obvious. I cannot really come up with a town motivation where they just pretend like the other is the 1 in a hundred truth teller. For someone willing to take risks like Varsoon, he seems awfully reluctant to lynch a CCer that's almost certainly scum. Why not?

[Titus]

Wait, you're claiming you still haven't read the setup? Do it now. There's absolutely no town motivation for not reading it any longer. You absolutely need to drop the village idiot thing if you are indeed town. We don't need idiots. We need logical thinkers who can deduce what's right and wrong.

Also, what makes you so certain that Saki is town? If you're town (doubt it), then there's only a 1% chance he's town too. So, you'd need to be damn near certain Saki was town. What makes you so certain?

What's the big thing I'm missing?

[Titus]

Detailed Setup

One percent cannot be ignored. Correct. Over time, 1% odds will turn out to be fruitful indeed. However, given the slim likelihood of you both being town, I'd want solid evidence of you both being town before I could consider lynching outside the two of you. I don't have it at all. Yeah 1 time out of 100 I'd be wrong. In your scenario with a 2% critical chance, I bet you've had hundreds of opportunities to roll that critical chance thing. We don't have that. We have a scenario where 99/100 times lynching between the two of you would confirm a scum. I'd take that. I'm hardly ignoring the 1% chance. I'm just stating that it's foolish not to lynch between the two of you unless we're 100% certain you are both town. I am not, so I'm not going to advocate lynching outside the two of you.

If you had 100 dollars, would you bet it all on a 1% chance or would you bet it on the 99% chance? Most would bet on the 99% chance unless they had insider information that the 1% chance was the right route.

[Titus]

Absolutely not. A bird in the hand is better than two in the bush. Letting go nearly confirmed scum on the off–chance someone else is scum is foolish. There's not really a strong case against anyone other than you. Plus, the odds dramatically increase that we mislynch if we go outside Varsoon/Saki.

I am off for the night.

[Titus]

No. My logic, not how you play, is dictating that.

For instance, your refusal to push a Saki lynch tells me that is a huge risk for you. I don't see you taking a risky option when a risk free one gers the same result. Risk needs a reason. That tells me lynching Saki must be risky for you. Why?

You still haven't explained anything about your meta contradictions or anything in my post. Instead, you chalk it up to playstyle.

@Oriole, My 99% argument relates to at least one of them lying. Nothing says they both cannot be.

[Titus]

@Oriole, I rather believe Saki right now but there is a chance of scum v scum. I'd want to watch both very closely.

@Dr. Pepper, Frequent contractions about meta are not emotion. Wierd voting patterns are not emotion. Having a complex plan that sweeps a lot under the rug is not emotion. There's only one part that relates to emotion. Varsoon's behavior makes no sense, the odds are in our favor that one of the two is scum and we're looking for reasons to lynch a PR? No I just don't find a reason not to lynch Varsoon.

Also, every single lurker was NOT a scum read. Way to misrep. Dyslexicon and Tunnel were town reads.

[Titus]

Flench also worked his way to a null read.

[Titus]

4 out of 13 is just too small to be right plus two of those lurk (jmo and Dys) a third is a midrange lurker. I am the only heavily active one on the train which makes no sense given the odds and Varsoon's contradictions.

There's a lot off abou Cherry if Varsoon is scum btw.

[Titus]

I asked Paschendale that because I wanted to confirm that I could indeed go after Varsoon 100% without disrupting any plans he had for the town or if the wall would be too long for him to manage. I wasn't going to have my wall of new information up rapidly, so I tried to take the most economical apprach.

[Titus]

@Oriole, don't know what plans Paschendale had, so I just asked in case I was going to interfere.

You laugh but I actually just referred to post numbers rather than quoting to keep the wall length reasonable.

Do you think either of the roleblockers are lying oriole? Do you see flaws in my case?

@Saki, I isoed you and saw I was making a mistake. Basically, your case is that I FoSed you and you are butt hurt. I never did misrep you but we've argued that road repeatedly. I thought you wanted to claim. You argue you didn't.

[Titus]

Come on Saki a 99 percent chance that either Varsoon or you is scum and you want a link? It's basic math.

Step 1 - Calculate the odds of one roleblocker being present when seven chances are used. There is a five percent chance of any given slot being a roleblocker.This also means a 95 percent chance it isn't. To calculate the odds of any spot being a roleblocker, the equation is 1 - .95(roleblockslotpower). In this case, it is .95 to the seventh. 1 -.7 = .30.

Step 2 - Repeat the above for 6 slots. That's .25.

Step 3 - Repeat for 5 slots.

Step 4 - Multiply steps 1 through 3.

That's how you calculate odds of multiple items occurring in a random setup. Step 1 calculates the odds of one B getting rolled. Stepp 2 counts for two roleblockers. Step 3 counts for the third. Since all three must occur, you multiply the results from steps 1 through 3.


That leaves a ridiculous odds that both Saki and Varsoon are town.

[Titus]

@Paschendale, I really don't see WHY this is happening. We are letting nearly certain scum go on day 1. It makes no sense.

[Titus]

Yeah. It will be there tomorrow but with one less active townie unless the roleblocker/possible doctor guesses right. Plus, we are going down the route of a possible mislynch because the chance would be there tomorrow.

If a cop had a guilty on someone and the other player cced cop, would we really put off the lynch? Of course nt. But this is as close as we get to day 1 confirmed scum.

[Titus]

@Tunnelvision - Read post 872 supposing the following propositions and rate the plausibility please.

1)Both Cherry and Varsoon are town.

2) Both Cherry and Varsoon are scum.

3) Varsoon only is scum.

4) Cherry only is scum.

[Titus]

If a cop had a guilty on someone and the other player cced cop, would we really put off the lynch? Of course nt. But this is as close as we get to day 1 confirmed scum.

Situations aren't comparable, though. Neither of the roleblockers has claimed to block the other (and you'd have to be pretty stupid to).

They are comparable though. One cop is almost certainly lying about being a cop. There's ridiculous odds they both could be townies and lying to lynch each other but the most likely scenario is that one os scum. We have nearly the same setup here.

[Titus]

1) Very remote; possible only in theory. Neither wanted to back off their claim, which would have been the only way I could see them both as town. Possible in theory only.

2) Possible but unlikely. Saki is an expert actor if he is indeed scum. Given his play that I have seen, I don't think Saki could consistently fake the range he's been showing.

3) Most likely. This is consistent with both Varsoon's and Saki's play so far.

4) Possible but unlikely. That would require the scums to vote up Saki to almost a fatal lynch, back off and then Saki tobe a good actor which I don't buy.

[Titus]

Oriole, please look at my Varsoon case for what flaws you might see. I asked you once and you just stated your position.

[Titus]

The motive behind scumVarsoon counterclaiming Saki would depend largely on his scum role and confidence level. I'll start with the least likely and end with the most likely based on playstyle.

1 - 3 assume Town Saki.

1) Varsoon is a goon and just extremely confident in his ability to get Saki lynched. Here I'd agree the risk would outweigh the reward, even for most hardened risk takers.

2) Varsoon is the roleblocker AND confident he can get the other guy lynched before him. This guarantees the mafia a mislynch and likely assures them of a night kill. They'd get even more mislynches if we failed to lynch between the two of them waiting on cops who may or may not exist.

3) Varsoon is a detection immune scum such as the Godfather or Serial Killer who selected investigation immune. This one makes the most sense. If he convinces the town not to lynch him or Saki, a cop would likely visit Varsoon. Varsoon then gets confirmed as innocent and we all believe he is legitimately the roleblocker.


4) If both Saki and Varsoon are scum together, they've bought quite a bit of time because one of them would be thought of as "confirmed town" because the other flipped scum. I'd imagine this would need some discussion pregame however. It's a move I would most likely see in the later game.


------------

Oriole please answer if there are flaws in my Varsoon case or not.

________

Tunnel please answer the plausibility regarding Cherry/Varsoon. I'll give my thoughts after I just have to verify you're not sheeping me.

[Titus]

@Cherry, nice reverse speculation btw.

[Titus]

@Oriole, It's a blantant contradiction to claim that someone could find his role and alignment via meta and then claim meta is worthless. I do view meta as worthless generally, but I don't view statements about meta as worthless. Varsoon has lied about his meta revealing his role definitively.

Like I said, the further Varsoon can punt on the whole Saki/Varsoon issue the further the mafia can cause chaos and mislynches.



Varsoon Read - Not closing off any avenues means not closing off plausible avenues. If Varsoon is really the town roleblocker, Saki being a town roleblocker should be very implausible to him. Yet, he becomes more and more convinced that Saki is town? His cognitive bias should favor intensely being scum. Instead

Varsoon says he won't vote Saki ever in post 805.

12) No, not really. Saki is hard-town to me right now, with very little chance of changing. I won't be putting a vote on Saki for the rest of this game. Again, good try.

Given the 1% odds of them both being legitimate roleblockers this is NOT a play that is logical for town Varsoon. It's not contradictory. I'd expect that pre-claim Varsoon would toggle his vote but he keeps it on Saki. After his claim, Varsoon never questions it. Varsoon should be the biggest questioner of Saki's claim given the exclusive information he has.

My read on Varsoon is fine, nice try at a discredit with no foundation.

You also don't exactly disagree with a lot of the theme running through the Varsoon read. He's voting on targets of convenience not those who are most likely scum.

[Titus]

I was backing Varsoon for awhile, but his reactions continued to just give me a creepy gut feeling. No one should be as blase as Varsoon. Then, when I tried to wall up Saki, I found that there wasn't really much there. There was the whole claim thing, but what if I legitimately misunderstood Saki and forced him into a situation he didn't want to be in? Saki's not just discrediting everything he sees. I disagree with Saki but there's nothing there that isn't certainly noobtown. I also now know that Saki is capable of some pretty wierd stuff to get what he thinks he wants but he cannot act or support his conclusions very well. There's not enough on Saki to independently believe he is scummy due to his reactions matching those of a town player.

I would expect Saki (being less experienced) to slip more than Varsoon. That hypothesis didn't hold water, so I began reanalyzing.

[Titus]

I was actually suspecting Cherry and Varsoon might be scum together. No where near enough evidence to do anything about it today. It wouldn't surprise me if one of the hydras was a scum.

I absolutely disagree with your course of action Pasche. The real roleblocker would likely live regardless due to a doc being present.

Jmo please post reads on everyone not just Varsoon. Welcome back btw.

[Titus]

Doc likely being present. Blah.

[Titus]

Agreed, except for the whole Cherry thing. I think Cherry could be scum. However, if we keep thinkng the same way, expect the occasional paranoia test. You might want to give me one from time to time.

If you had to lynch a lurker who would you pick? I would pick VoteMe.

[Titus]

@jmo, glad you're back. Content please.

@Tunnel, can you give me post numbers?

[Titus]

@Flench why isn't jmo included?

[Titus]

@Paschendale, I think your rationalizing and being scared about lynching Varsoon. My argument is not and has never been, lynching Varsoon just because of the math.

1) Varsoon is the most scummy person here. Everyone on this train may have started with the assumption about the one percent, but everyone on the train appears to think Varsoon is scummy enough in his own right, but for JMO. JMO however, hasn't posted at all about the 1% argument. JMO's a lurker. He needs to post content.

2) Lynching Varsoon will yield plenty of information depending on what Varsoon flips. If Varsoon flips scum, we'll know that those attempting to derail the lynch have some additional likelihood of being scum. We'll have some analysis based of French's likely partners.

3) Someone's conclusions don't make them scummy. Either a premise makes them scummy or their logic makes them scummy. Just because the conclusion isn't one you agree with doesn't make it scummy.

4) If we succeed and Varsoon flips scum, I'd focus on the players who seemed to defend Judd the hardest, especially lurkers who didn't vote for Varsoon.

If Varsoon flips town, the logical thing to do is to focus on the lurkers who seemed to focus the hardest on Varsoon with no reason, such as JMO.

Either way, lynching Varsoon leaves us with a clear plan of action as well.

Of course, others will have their opinions as well but I'd not exactly clueless after this lynch.



Also, you've never highlighted why the argument is shitty. The argument is 100% true. If one of the players (Saki/Varsoon) the other has a 1% chance of being a roleblocker. It's meant to frame the issue and apply pressure to the two claimers. Letting them go makes NO apparent sense to me whatsoever. The night actions aren't even sent to everyone so I'm not seeing how we'll have more information for certain. Plus, if one of them is the Godfather/Serial Killer, some of the information gathered by waiting could be totally wrong. I don't get this at all Pasch.



@Tunnel - What posts were you asking me to read between you and Glass?

@Varsoon - That seems like a big load of discrediting by jumping on Tunnel. Again, your vote has shifted to the popular wagon of choice. When Pasch says lurker, you push JMO hard. When no one takes you up on JMO, you push Tunnel because there are people on it. In your opinion, it's a pretty weak case. At this point in the day, you probably shouldn't be putting up a case you see as pretty weak. You should be pretty strong in at least one person who is scum and stand by it. Pasch says those who are on Varsoon are being weak, but it should be pretty clear Varsoon is being weak. Whenever there's been a major train other than Varsoon he's been on or near it. Saki at opening, then I had a few votes, then JMO, then Tunnel. It's freaking ridiculous. His votes are almost certainly lynch anyone but me. I can't see any consistency here beyond that.


@Everyone - Please answer the following question. This question is designed to probe relationships between players and get more direct hold your feet to the fire information.

If you had to pick one person as scum, other than Varsoon, who would you pick and why? Why must include more than a gut feeling.

If you had to pick one person as town, other than Paschendale, who would you pick and why? Why must include more than a gut feeling.


I'll go first. Stubbs is my top target for scum other than Varsoon. Stubbs hasn't posted a lot of content and his vote hasn't changed in a week from jmo. JMO has some scummy elements to him but he probably knows that he's scum suspect number one if Varsoon flips town, so I can't see scumJMO keeping his vote there if Varsoon was town. I could see scumJMO bus in that manner but it's damn near suicidal for scumJMO to keep his vote on Varsoon if he's town at this point.

For the town position, I'd go with Dyslexicon. She's not making as many posts as we'd like but she's definitely adding plenty of insight into the conversation. Tunnel was a close second but I'm still paranoid because we agree so damn often. Oriole also would be a good choice here but something doesn't sit with me regarding his defense (if you can call it that) of Varsoon.

[Titus]

@Tunnel - DO NOT SUPPOSE I WILL ALWAYS AGREE WITH YOU. I AM NOT YOUR MINI ME! GOT IT!

Also, you asked me a question about interpreting a conversation you had with Glass. What bloody posts are you talking about?

[Titus]

Look, I'll argue my case how I see fit. Yeah, it won't persuade you but my goal isn't to persuade, my goal is to find the truth. Some people (probably scum) will never want to lynch in a group where someone is likely capable of being confirmed as scum. Scum being either Saki or Varsoon is as close to confirmed as we can get on day 1. So I will harp on that point until one of them flips scum.

If you are town Cherry, this isn't good play. Claiming a PR role cannot be a total pass on a lynch day 1, especially when roles are essentially unverifiable. If you can come up with a plan that would prove whether or not BOTH Saki and Varsoon were indeed roleblockers, I could be convinced to change my mind. However, I'm pretty sure there isn't one. I'm not just going to change my mind because you FoS me for it.

The biggest issue I have with my Varsoon read is that Stubbs, my other scum read, left his vote there and vanished. That move doesn't really seem to be consistent with scum bussing.

Also, on what planet am I buddying Paschendale, I've come thisclose to calling Paschendale stupid if I haven't actually said it outright. Wanting to make sure people can actually scumhunt is not buddying at all. My biggest gripe with Pasch's shut up post was that he made me feel restrained in how I go after scum. The last thing I'm going to do is get in his way if lord forbids he has a plan. Yet, I'm not seeing a plan out of Pasch at all. I'm just seeing... Derp we should lynch the lurkers because being wrong is too valuable. I can take some risk especially when, in the remote chance I am wrong, the other one is almost certainly scum.

CherryDrPepper, Saki's reactions have for the most part been genuine. You seem to greatly discount any possibility that Varsoon is scum. Prove Varsoon is town. Use clear language.


@Tunnel, looking through Glass's ISO now.

[Titus]

@Tunnel - DO NOT SUPPOSE I WILL ALWAYS AGREE WITH YOU. I AM NOT YOUR MINI ME! GOT IT!

Anyone else getting a really bad vibe from this.

Yes it seems like "Hey our buddying is getting too damn obvious"

If we're both scum, why the hell would we need to buddy each other? That makes no sense and would be beyond moronic.

[Titus]

Except Tunnel and I aren't constantly agreeing with each other. I think there's a possibility you are scum Tunnel dismissed that. Naturally, two town players should be alarmed (as we both are) that we see the Varsoon lynch so similarly. You're also forgetting a strategy on your scum list, ignorance. If you are scum, I should look to see who you're ignoring.

Also, any interaction could be described by one of the four categories. That's a bit of a joke Cherry.


@Tunnel - As for the Glass thing (supposing post #616) in the neighborhood, I don't see anything inherently scummy about that. Saki/Varsoon is where we should be focusing IMO. I also don't see him as dodging. Your post in 621 also looked like a rhetorical question. The lack of follow-up indicates that as well.

[Titus]

@Tunnel - DO NOT SUPPOSE I WILL ALWAYS AGREE WITH YOU. I AM NOT YOUR MINI ME! GOT IT!

Anyone else getting a really bad vibe from this.

That puts words in my mouth and says what I will do. One thing I will always be is fiercely independent. I'll bitch at anyone, even confirmed town, who tries to tell me what to do.

I'll tell people when I agree with them, but that doesn't give them license to predict what I will do.

[Titus]

He explicitly called me his mini-me. So yeah, I'm going to get pissed at that. No one puts words into my mouth before I even get a chance to speak. I don't care how much I usually agree with them.

You actually focused on the minor detail. You accuse me and Tunnel of buddying when it makes no sense to do so this early for scum players. However, it would make sense for scum to want to divide players who seemed to be thinking on the same wavelength and thought each other were town.

[Titus]

Well, whatever scum do that so early are utterly moronic. Also, it makes no sense for scum to buddy so publicly, that's my point. Scum will likely agree with each other on points that are false and that they know are false. Active town doesn't mean buddying.

[Titus]

@Flench, do you think there's any possibility that both Varsoon and Saki are scum and that their third partner is really against lynching between them?

[Titus]

I am asking that because I cannot come up with a rationale for Varsoon and Saki both not voting each other.

[Titus]

@Paschendale, I really do not like this course of action, but it if we are going to lynch outside of Varsoon/Saki then we might as well get on with it and start looking. I am confident that Varsoon will remain an option because he will continue to act scummy because he is indeed scum. My vote will remain on Varsoon because I see him as the scummiest independent of the math.

Tomorrow, I am mostly going to be lurking. I have a busy morning full of work meetings and I want to take some time away from posting to look at various forms of association. I don't intend to put actual percentages as Flench did but looking at associations will give us a good understanding of the game play.

@JMO, Even if you aren't my top scum suspect, you're still acting pretty scummy and prod dodging a lot. You need to post content pretty soon here that isn't rehashing or else you'll likely be assumed scum.

[Titus]

Welcome Xiao!

I guess I'm uncivilized for sleeping and going to work. Really, there's no point for that behavior Saki. Chill.

Back to reading/analyzing.

[Titus]

@Saki, try a different browser on the QT. It works fine in Firefox. Also, if we lynch one of you and that guy is TRB, then the other guy is most nearly certain scum. If we lynch one of you and you flip scum, that doesn't prove anything about the other guy but makes it more likely to be town.

@Dyslexicon, Tunnel's opening made me much more paranoid of agreements with him. He said we pretty much play the same style and the head that's been posting will have difficulty reading me. I do feel like some of the things he's noticed are things I've observed as well (such as the mason claim). We don't agree on things outside of the Varsoon lynch but we are too close to avoid paranoia on the Varsoon lynch. I also am surprised that you claim TV is much more aggressive. I figured my play was as aggressive as it got, provided I don't fuck up what known town are doing.

Cherry seems to be a logical choice after Varsoon flips scum (provided he does). Cherry was on the Saki lynch before the shift and after he's been FoSing anyone who attacks Varsoon.

@Cherry, Varsoon has been scummy for reasons other than the claim. I did a large wall on them. You're picking one point and saying that's the whole case. Varsoon is pretty scummy in his own right and trying to sweep it under the rug by saying VI. That man is no VI.


@Xiao, Tell me if you see the same pattern I am documenting below please in your read. Also, what Varsoon claims about his meta is useless, since he's claimed everything under the sun. Meta is only useless if you believe it to be. I believe it is low-value, so it has little influence with me.

@All, I'm looking at the pattern here for the voting and it seems like Saki's claim really altered what most of the players thought about who was scum and who wasn't. I am beginning to think that Saki was a target for a mislynch at the start of the game. Saki, being relatively newer than even me, can be the most likely relied upon to say something like the gist in post 987 that says he's focused on survival. Perhaps this is why Varsoon counter-claimed because I don't automatically take a claim at face value. Still, it seems like the game shifted 180 after Saki's claim.

[Titus]

@Cherry, Varsoon has been scummy for reasons other than the claim. I did a large wall on them. You're picking one point and saying that's the whole case. Varsoon is pretty scummy in his own right and trying to sweep it under the rug by saying VI. That man is no VI.

That's what I like to hear, you constantly mentioning the theory of probability is the reason why I kept saying to not base your case on it.

-Sakura Hana

http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 0#p5142380, combined with this post http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 6#p5143176

The post I laid out the case for Varsoon being scum. Yes, I did mention the 1% chance but the large bulk of that post was highlighting Varsoon's scummy play independent of that.

This tells me that you are seriously not reading my posts. I don't know why you would be skipping over my arguments and then claiming I never made them.


@Saki, I made that all paragraph because I promised I'd be looking at the initial voting patterns and documenting what I saw. That was an initial gut read of the vote counts I had seen so far.

As for why I changed my mind, I looked at your responses and Varsoon's to the pressure applied to you over time. Yours seemed much more genuine than his. You, being newer, should have made quite a few more slips than Varsoon if scum. Instead, Varsoon's play was gradually shifting towards scumminess and grand explanations for his play so far.

@Varsoon - Don't answer for me. That pisses me off, especially because you're wrong and my scum read. By the way, if you remember, I'm actually a woman.


And now Varsoon claims scum. For pete's sake can we lynch him already?

[Titus]

@Varsoon

I don't see a very active case against TV anywhere. Is that me just not looking hard enough?

No. No one has put up a wall that TV is scum but he has quite a few votes on him. That should tell you something Saki.

[Titus]

Saki, you should be fine with dying. Yes, it sucks to lose an rber at night, but that also supposes there is no doctor to save you. The doctor would most likely camp on your house. Even if there is no doctor, Varsoon getting lynched and Saki dying is a perfect 1 for 1 trade at the start of the game.

For your own future reference, it's best to play to want to survive as a PR but don't sabotage the group's efforts because you fear dying.

[Titus]

>At first you say that you were counter claiming before you didn't know the setup.
>Then you say that you could both be town while you still didnt read the setup.
>You read the setup then you say that you counter claimed because you didnt read the setup.
>976 You mention it again as a counter-claim by saying: "I counter-claimed Saki, who claimed Town RoleBlocker" Not to mention the AtE by >saying that you're viewed as idiot for not reading the setup pre-emptively to the replacement's entrance.
>Now you say that you didn't mention counter-claiming.

Why are you town again?

-Sakura Hana

Then why won't you vote him? Why did you ignore my posts detailing the arguments to lynch Varsoon, why the 180?

[Titus]

Myself alone am not responsible for the vote, this hydra has 2 heads and im only voting on what we both agree, even if DP did vote for TV without me specifically agreeing to it, i still rather consult him first because i'm nice like that.

-Sakura Hana

This is why I hate hydras. If you were a normal player, I would call this stalling.

The 180 is pretty alarming though. You didn't really comment on any of my arguments (you missed them) and you turn and do a 180 on Varsoon? Either your heads cannot agree or something is suspicious with this hydra.

This is why I hate hydras.

@Varsoon, I'm active but I'm lost in a WiFoM hurricane? It's a problem to be hungry for a lynch of scum with the day winding down?


@Saki, I know that mafia is a lot like a game of chess. I'd prefer if you didn't die but I know each individual person is expendable as long as there's enough of us to lynch the scums.

[Titus]

It's my first time playing an hydra and i've seen on other games people complaining about hydras having dissonance, i just wanted to avoid dissonance with my other head that's all.

-Sakura Hana

Well vote or no vote, that plan failed pretty badly there.

[Titus]

@Saki: Unless both town and mafia are stupid, you should live.

Also, for cherry:
"First, anyone who thinks that Varsoon isn't bullshitting loudly when he says he didn't read the setup is dumber than Vars is acting."
Flench's third point in 907.
"The reality is, I think he's smart. I think he's too smart to counter claim without looking at the game setup first"
"Not Reading the Setup - I don't buy anyone not reading the setup. It's one thing to miscomprehend but I don't think anyone deliberately ignores the setup."
". Meanwhile, Varsoon is smart enough to know that fake claiming is dangerous in this setup. I don't really believe him when he says that he doesn't understand the setup, but that's another one of his attempts at clever ploys."
"I expected that a competent and intelligent player such as yourself would've read the intro posts from the mod, and looked at the game setup options."


Those are the most damning ones.
There's been a lot of not-related-to-the-game WIFOM just because I didn't read the setup, so that's why I told Xiao that he should.
C'mon, step it up.


@Titus: You've been focusing on things that aren't relevant for awhile.
When does the day end? You're actively telling people "jump on this wagon!"
No need to be a jerk to Cherry with your response.

@TV: Maybe I

am

wrong about you.

unvote

The day ends August 2nd. I'm encouraging town to make what I believe to be the smart play. This day has been dragging on for quite some time. I think we should get significant contributions from the replacements but I am always going to push a wagon on those I think are scummy. I really don't like your unvote on Tunnel. You never gave a good reason for voting him and now that people aren't jumping on and realizing there was no case, your vote leaves. Scummy timing.

[Titus]

Well the only question now is whether we believe Varsoon's claim of VT now. I'll let him put forth his crumbs but I'm still very suspicious that this is scumVarsoon just flailing around to try and save himself. I don't get why Varsoon didn't back off sooner.

Lynching Varsoon for lying is lynching him under false pretenses?

[Titus]

Oh, so two weeks from now? Sure is winding down.
We have ~5 slots that have given town no information. It's foolhardy to go into D2 while there's still so many lurkers and a replacement pending.
I actually did have a case on him, I apologize that it wasn't a wall of text with quotes left and right. You can continue to misrep me with slanderous lines like "You never gave a good reason for voting him and now that people aren't jumping on and realizing there was no case, your vote leaves. Scummy timing."
But I hope that town will see how terrible you're being. ISO me for the case, or ask for it straightforwardly. Don't lie to town and say there was no case.

Vote: Titus

No one put a wall up on him. Period. There are reactionary votes, like your case. I'm not about to go through a town player's ISO and argue they are scummy. You can go ahead and make a case on Tunnel but don't expect me to do it for you. No misrep there at all.

[Titus]

@Oriole: Didn't back off then because it would seem opportunistic and the last thing I wanted was people lynching me under false pretenses.
Let me dig up the crumbs.

@Saki: All it takes is for someone else to command a strong enough voice and presence.

So my arguing that you've been scum for quite awhile now, highlighting the implausibility of both of you being scum, getting you down to L-2 wasn't a strong enough voice or presence to get you to back off your claim?

[Titus]

*both being scum = both being town roleblockers and that you're likely scum

Sorry had a few thoughts run together there.

[Titus]

Varsoon, you expect the town to be angry with you and you're voting the first guy that seems to be pissed off at you?

Your backing off deserves some analysis rather than autoscum status but you did cost us a whole hell of a lot of time Varsoon and the saying lynch all liars is there FOR A REASON.