Open 512: See Nine Plus Plus (Game Ovah)

[Does Bo Know]

Votecount 1.35

[L-3] Varsoon - jmo16mla, Dyslexicon, Titus, TunnelVision
[L-5] Vote Me - oriole, Flench
[L-5] jmo16mla - StubbsKVM, Varsoon
[L-5] TunnelVision - CherryDrPepper, Paschendale
[L-6] Titus - Saki

Not Voting: Vote Me, Glass

With 13 alive, it takes 7 to lynch!

Deadline is Friday, August 2nd, 2013 at 7:30 PM CST ((expired on 2013-08-02 19:30:00)).

---

StubbsKVM is V/LA until July 22nd.

[TunnelVision]

A passionless attempt to hop on what looks like a likely wagon for extremely bad reasons that can be dismissed later on as "well he shouldn't have played so weird" in the event of a mislynch... scummy.

You really aren't reading are you? I started in on Varsoon very early in the game because right from the onset something didn't sit right with me. Hop on a wagon? I freaking started it because the guy's play doesn't add up and it's anti-town.

Look here:

Contradictory/obfuscating posts Varsoon - I'm mobile so quoting is a pain but you say that using meta sucks or is stupid but in a previous post you say that every game you drop something that indicates your alignment (the allusion seemed to be that it is 100% effective.) What's the deal there? If meta isn't useful, how do you explain that this thing you drop is 100%? And if you can manage to explain that away... if this thing you drop is 100%, couldn't you just fudge it to falsify your alignment tell when it suits you? Why yes, yes you could.

Don't think I need Rank for this one:

Vote Varsoon

I only unvoted because I thought you and VoteMe were subtly vouching for him, which I detailed here:
565

You didn't even answer the question I asked you directly in said post. Did you miss it because you're not reading, or consciously choose not to answer it?

Back to Varsoon's scuzzy behavior... You yourself told him to knock it off. Yeah, he shouldn't play so weird. But I think its a calculated maneuver. He set it up from the beginning. He talked all about his meta. He said he was playing VI. He basically told everybody what he was doing... don't you think if he was really doing it to catch scum he wouldn't have TOLD EVERYBODY EXACTLY WHAT HE WAS DOING? He did it so he could point back and say, "I told you I was going to play like a goober. See? It's not scummy because I did it on purpose."

121 - which contradicts with 127
127 - which contradicts with 135
137 - which contradicts with 127

Passionless? Once I had some time to dig and prod, I laid into both Saki and Varsoon to get a better read. That's what I do. I apply heat. Go re-read that exchange. Look at how mad/frustrated they both got. When people get angry, frustrated, pressured... their true colors show. That's what I was looking for. Not a lynch at that point, I wanted answers. I got them. The answers said "Lynch Varsoon, Saki is town."

Look at the logic fail of Varsoon in that exchange...
692 contradicts

7) I felt pressured into a weird place when Titus not-so-subtly implied that I was a Mason with Vote-me. I should have just ignored him, but, really, it's whatever. Yeah, that was a shitty play on my part.

692 doesn't make any sense. How does drawing attention to yourself, and subtly suggesting that you are a PR protect you from NK? It doesn't. It only makes sense that he did that to setup a false PR claim later on. He could point back to it like it was a breadcrumb of some kind.

-1-

[Titus]

The motive behind scumVarsoon counterclaiming Saki would depend largely on his scum role and confidence level. I'll start with the least likely and end with the most likely based on playstyle.

1 - 3 assume Town Saki.

1) Varsoon is a goon and just extremely confident in his ability to get Saki lynched. Here I'd agree the risk would outweigh the reward, even for most hardened risk takers.

2) Varsoon is the roleblocker AND confident he can get the other guy lynched before him. This guarantees the mafia a mislynch and likely assures them of a night kill. They'd get even more mislynches if we failed to lynch between the two of them waiting on cops who may or may not exist.

3) Varsoon is a detection immune scum such as the Godfather or Serial Killer who selected investigation immune. This one makes the most sense. If he convinces the town not to lynch him or Saki, a cop would likely visit Varsoon. Varsoon then gets confirmed as innocent and we all believe he is legitimately the roleblocker.


4) If both Saki and Varsoon are scum together, they've bought quite a bit of time because one of them would be thought of as "confirmed town" because the other flipped scum. I'd imagine this would need some discussion pregame however. It's a move I would most likely see in the later game.


------------

Oriole please answer if there are flaws in my Varsoon case or not.

________

Tunnel please answer the plausibility regarding Cherry/Varsoon. I'll give my thoughts after I just have to verify you're not sheeping me.

[Titus]

@Cherry, nice reverse speculation btw.

[oriole]

Writing it up as we speak.

[TunnelVision]

OK. So what scum motive is behind scum-Varsoon counterclaiming Saki, then? (I'd like TV to answer this too).

(This actually addresses the p-edit a bit too)

Inherent risks of the Saki claim situation:
D1, a town PR claims a role. That person doesn't get lynched. They are borderline confirmed town. They may be covered by a doctor, able to use their power nightly (in this case a roleblock.) If said player targets well, you make it hard for the mafia to thin the population. Could also start the foundation of a town bloc.

Some obvious potential rewards of a false counter claim:
Mafia can attempt any of the following (and some combinations of multiples):
1) Lynch Saki D1, and hang a town PR instead of NK. Win.
2) Let both claimed folks live for the day, mislynch some other townie.
3) Publicly coordinate some of the night moves, learn more about game setup by night info reveals from Saki. (if Saki lives.)
4) Prove roleblocker status (but not alignment), gain town cred for Varsoon

There are other options, but they revolve around additional game setup speculation.

[oriole]

Yeah, I'm getting to it, it's just a longer post and requires more time.

The Case for Lynching Varsoon

1. The lynch should be between Varsoon and Saki because there is about a 1% chance of them both being town. If they both were town, I should be getting a lot more encouragement on this point. Given there is NO certainty in mafia, this is as close as we are going to get that one of the two is indeed scum.

Furthermore, a scum player would know they'd be lynched if the other one dies.

See, this is an issue I have. Why would Varsoon counter-claim, knowing that even if he got Saki lynched (which assumes that was his aim), he'd be lynched next? The generally accepted rate for bussing or gambits like this is usually 2 mis-lynches, not one.

Varsoon as scum -

Meta Contradictions - Varsoon contradicts or at least confuses the issues here regarding meta in posts . In 127 he says anyone reading his meta can know what alignment

and role

he is. I looked through Varsoon's meta. I haven't found a roleblocker yet. In his next serious post (132), he labels me town for not being concerned about the meta. Post 135 he gives a "firm middle finger" to anyone who uses meta to read him. Those posts take place within 24 hours of each other. Posts 127 and 132 are within two hours of each other.

No, post 127

was

the firm middle finger to people who use meta by sending them searching for something useless, IIRC.

His interactions with Saki - On post 180, Varsoon votes Saki as a pressure for a player on VLA. He maintains his vote there the entire time and throughout the CC process, by that point Saki is posting and contributing. I would expect town to have some vote flipping as they investigate. As we all know, Varsoon didn't CC Saki with fire and brimstone. First he asked if it would be a bad time to CC. Really, who gives a crap if it's a bad time. Having all the information out there is helpful. He seems to go back and forth. Before Saki's claim, Varsoon was convinced Saki was scum. In 280, he really pushes a Saki lynch hard. After Saki's claim, Varsoon leans Saki's scum. Later on, he pushes the line that Saki might be town along with him (despite the one percent probability of that), unless Varsoon is a vanilla townie. Varsoon refuses to claim that. Later, Varsoon is convinced Saki is town and a roleblocker and that he is too. At some point, he should be angry or doubt Saki's town status. Yet, with each passing day Varsoon becomes more convinced.

He says that he won't put a vote on Saki ever?

That doesn't make sense. Town should not be closing off avenues for voting someone unless they are the innocent child, dead or in most cases, cleared by a confirmed cop. The refusal to consider Saki as scum looks more like an exit strategy in case Saki flips town or gets killed at night.

Your argument is directly contradictory in that you say that you would expect town to have some vote flipping as they investigate and then lambast Varsoon for going back and forth on Saki. The bolded I've already seen said by Vote Me. You also say that town shouldn't close off avenues, but that's exactly what you're recommending Varsoon do by not entertaining the chance that Saki is a town roleblocker.

Suddenly shifting read on me - Varsoon has gone back and forth on my town/scum status repeatedly on Day 1. He opens with me as town, and later says that he starts with players as scum until he can confirm them as town. Post 180, Varsoon says I'm right for not trusting him. 280, Varsoon uses the "too town" argument for what? Saying he needs to be paranoid? He's still convinced I'm town until post 580. Around that point, is when I start to look at the numbers and know that either Varsoon or Saki is likely lying. Post 604 is a load of contradictions I'm a suspect who is town and Saki is a believable town who is scum. That sounds like someone obfuscating any legitimate form of a read. Post 692, Varsoon is upset with Cherry for fueling what he's arguing as a three way town fight. Then, in 715 he says he sees the arguments that I'm supposedly scum. Towards the end of the day, he's second guessing the Titus wagon. It seems like Varsoon is going whichever way the wind blows.

Funny, because that could also apply to your read on Varsoon.

Total Lack of Anger or Passion - Varsoon was easy going with his claim, he's easy going with votes placed on him, he's emotionally distant while buddying. He's not getting upset with confirmed town players when he feels they are doing something not smart.

How do you measure emotional distance? This could easily be more of a playstyle thing.

Not Reading the Setup - I don't buy anyone not reading the setup. It's one thing to miscomprehend but I don't think anyone deliberately ignores the setup.

Don't you think that scum would be extra sure to check the set-up?

jmo - Varsoon is pushing a jmo lynch hard. He's been pushing it since the start of the game due to a suspicious vote jmo made at the start. Given jmo's lurkiness, Varsoon is said almost all of us think he's scum but yet only one votes him. True, but Varsoon didn't exactly change over his vote. I'm not as sure on jmo being scum as I am with Varsoon being scum, so I'm not voting jmo. I'm pretty sure most of us feel the same way. The jmo thing just seems to be going back to a target of convenience and then baiting us by saying we all agree.

I think Varsoon's vote is on jmo.

Village Idiot (VI) play - This seems to be an almost universal excuse. Oh I'm just playing the village idiot, don't mind me.

Maybe.

Second/Third/Fourth Level Play - This seems to be a deflection. I'm a village idiot pretending to be something pretending to be something else pretending to be a roleblocker? I don't get this at all. It's not clear and it looks to be a deflection/obfuscation mechanism along the lines of village idiot.

I dunno, I mean he hinted that he was using this as a tactic in 182, so I'm not so sure if it's a deflection.

[Flench]

1) Varsoon is town. He made what I believe to be an anti-town play by counterclaiming roleblocker without checking the game setup.
2) Varsoon is mafia. His roleclaim is a calculated anti-town play that has a number of potential plays/applications/risks/rewards. (This is the scenario that I believe to be true.)

My belief is that he's too smart for 1. The guy puts a lot of time into the game. Lots of posts, lots of thought, lots of theories... Understanding the game setup doesn't take much. He comfortable using numbers in his arguments, and the math for game setup options is quite simple and laid out neatly on that wiki page. Add on that people who seem to know him better than I also believe he's lying about game setup knowledge (Pasche in 842, I think somebody else said it too.) It just doesn't add up. It fails the logic test. I don't see how Town Varsoon could possible think that it was wise (and helpful to town) to counter claim without digging into the game setup (let alone trying other options if he really believed Saki was scum claiming a PR.) Quotes demonstrating that Varsoon's reason for CC'ing was because he didn't check game setup (because apparently I need to provide quotes to support everything I say):

-1-

1. Low chance

2. So if Varsoon is mafia and knew the setup, he would have known there was the 1% chance they were both town and the high chance they would both get lynched.

3. So a third senario would be varsoon being mafia and not knowing the setup and thinking his counter claim would make him the sole town RB. I think you are giving the guy too much credit, all of his meta defenses have been poorly strung together as everyone has pointed out. I think he just messed up and thought if he counter claimed he could kill Saki and would be the only RB. All of his posts have basically been saying "you better consider my master plan" but I don't think there is one, he just took a risky play counter claiming what now looks like town Saki, and not reading the setup backfired. He has been scrambling since he CCd. Now he is just using the chance they are both town as a get out of jail free card.

Vote: Varsoon

[oriole]

OK. So what scum motive is behind scum-Varsoon counterclaiming Saki, then? (I'd like TV to answer this too).

(This actually addresses the p-edit a bit too)

Inherent risks of the Saki claim situation:
D1, a town PR claims a role. That person doesn't get lynched. They are borderline confirmed town. They may be covered by a doctor, able to use their power nightly (in this case a roleblock.) If said player targets well, you make it hard for the mafia to thin the population. Could also start the foundation of a town bloc.

Some obvious potential rewards of a false counter claim:
Mafia can attempt any of the following (and some combinations of multiples):
1) Lynch Saki D1, and hang a town PR instead of NK. Win.
2) Let both claimed folks live for the day, mislynch some other townie.
3) Publicly coordinate some of the night moves, learn more about game setup by night info reveals from Saki. (if Saki lives.)
4) Prove roleblocker status (but not alignment), gain town cred for Varsoon

There are other options, but they revolve around additional game setup speculation.

1) Leads to scum lynch the next day, though. I'm not sure if it'd be worth the risk for them.
2) Yeah, but that assumes there's going to be a mislynch. It also allows a town PR to live, so I assume this one is meant to be coupled with another one.
3) Fixed by not coordinating publicly, I guess. I don't see what kind of game info they'd get from Saki they didn't already have (unless Saki blocks a serial killer?)
4) I'll assume this goes with 2. How would they prove the roleblocker status?

[Titus]

@Oriole, It's a blantant contradiction to claim that someone could find his role and alignment via meta and then claim meta is worthless. I do view meta as worthless generally, but I don't view statements about meta as worthless. Varsoon has lied about his meta revealing his role definitively.

Like I said, the further Varsoon can punt on the whole Saki/Varsoon issue the further the mafia can cause chaos and mislynches.



Varsoon Read - Not closing off any avenues means not closing off plausible avenues. If Varsoon is really the town roleblocker, Saki being a town roleblocker should be very implausible to him. Yet, he becomes more and more convinced that Saki is town? His cognitive bias should favor intensely being scum. Instead

Varsoon says he won't vote Saki ever in post 805.

12) No, not really. Saki is hard-town to me right now, with very little chance of changing. I won't be putting a vote on Saki for the rest of this game. Again, good try.

Given the 1% odds of them both being legitimate roleblockers this is NOT a play that is logical for town Varsoon. It's not contradictory. I'd expect that pre-claim Varsoon would toggle his vote but he keeps it on Saki. After his claim, Varsoon never questions it. Varsoon should be the biggest questioner of Saki's claim given the exclusive information he has.

My read on Varsoon is fine, nice try at a discredit with no foundation.

You also don't exactly disagree with a lot of the theme running through the Varsoon read. He's voting on targets of convenience not those who are most likely scum.

[oriole]

The reason I don't exactly disagree with a lot of the theme is that I'd rather lynch him then Saki, I'd just rather it be tomorrow.

You were backing Varsoon very heavily for a while before shifting on him (due to the numbers thing, then?). That's what I was referring to.

[Titus]

I was backing Varsoon for awhile, but his reactions continued to just give me a creepy gut feeling. No one should be as blase as Varsoon. Then, when I tried to wall up Saki, I found that there wasn't really much there. There was the whole claim thing, but what if I legitimately misunderstood Saki and forced him into a situation he didn't want to be in? Saki's not just discrediting everything he sees. I disagree with Saki but there's nothing there that isn't certainly noobtown. I also now know that Saki is capable of some pretty wierd stuff to get what he thinks he wants but he cannot act or support his conclusions very well. There's not enough on Saki to independently believe he is scummy due to his reactions matching those of a town player.

I would expect Saki (being less experienced) to slip more than Varsoon. That hypothesis didn't hold water, so I began reanalyzing.

[Paschendale]

First, anyone who thinks that Varsoon isn't bullshitting loudly when he says he didn't read the setup is dumber than Vars is acting. Second, a lot of the moves to lynch Varsoon are very rooted in a townread on Saki. I do not think anyone can be sure enough about that to move forward based on it. Third, I don't want to lynch Varsoon or Saki today. I want us to put them on the back burner and lynch one of the lurkers (barring them all availing themselves well, but that's not happening so far). I think we will be in a much better situation to evaluate them based on their positions on whatever today's lynch ends up being, and their night choices. Meanwhile, they will both be almost guaranteed to be protected from night kills, as the death and townflip of one would strongly implicate the other. Scum would not be so foolish as to do this.

[TunnelVision]

@MOD, Please delete that post above. Wrong account. My apologies.

@Tunnelvision - Read post 872 supposing the following propositions and rate the plausibility please.

1)Both Cherry and Varsoon are town.

2) Both Cherry and Varsoon are scum.

3) Varsoon only is scum.

4) Cherry only is scum.

1) Zero. I think Varsoon is scum.
2) Very low, I'd probably say Zero. They're both experienced players, I don't think Cherry would follow Varsoon's sacrifice bunt play by pushing an alternate wagon on me. Plus, let's face it... I always catch heat on D1. I don't mind it. And Cherrys argument against me in that post is based on a misunderstanding of what I said. Cherry also is a hydra, so there would be conversation and sharing before they made a play like pushing a wagon on me to divert off Varsoon. One head said "Tunnel makes sense, strong case" the other head said "Tunnel fail." I think they'd have taken the time to privately figure that out if they were scum. But as town, you operate under the premise of right and just, thereby you share openly and don't need to be as disciplined.
3) Most likely.
4) Zero, see number 1.

[jmo16mla]

Varsoon is scum.

For real. He tried to CC someone to get them lynched. You guys are idiots for not seeing this.

[Titus]

I was actually suspecting Cherry and Varsoon might be scum together. No where near enough evidence to do anything about it today. It wouldn't surprise me if one of the hydras was a scum.

I absolutely disagree with your course of action Pasche. The real roleblocker would likely live regardless due to a doc being present.

Jmo please post reads on everyone not just Varsoon. Welcome back btw.

[Titus]

Doc likely being present. Blah.

[TunnelVision]

Tunnel please answer the plausibility regarding Cherry/Varsoon. I'll give my thoughts after I just have to verify you're not sheeping me.

I'm not sheeping. I feel like I'm reading something I wrote every time you post. It's friggin terrible. I'll probably never play a game of mafia with you again.... Unless I play it on the third or fourth level and you stay on level one or two. Then I could play my role and pretend to be a village idiot pretending to be scum pretending to be a power role. That might work... But you'd lynch me on D1 for defying logic.

When number 2 gets here, he'll probably say "Number 1 huh? Your mom is number 1. For the love of god, somebody NK Titus... I can't stand 2 bauss's. And Pasche is right, we should lynch a lurker."

I'll bet good money on the above.

-1-

[Titus]

Agreed, except for the whole Cherry thing. I think Cherry could be scum. However, if we keep thinkng the same way, expect the occasional paranoia test. You might want to give me one from time to time.

If you had to lynch a lurker who would you pick? I would pick VoteMe.

[TunnelVision]

Agreed, except for the whole Cherry thing. I think Cherry could be scum. However, if we keep thinkng the same way, expect the occasional paranoia test. You might want to give me one from time to time.

If you had to lynch a lurker who would you pick? I would pick VoteMe.

Glass. Look back at my post to him. He completely failed to/avoided engaging. Lurker town would have fired right back, suspicious of me and pissed. Lurker scum said, "Shit, I'm going to avoid the death tunnel and let him rail away on Saki and Varsoon." Shady as hell. Plus he just jumped right into my active interrogation.

See also, the couple general observations in that same post. Paranoia test for you, since you asked, find specifics of what I was referring to with those observations? Or refute please.

Also, you don't get my jokes... So at least I still have that all to myself.

I want VoteMe to AnswerMe. I want to know wtf he meant and why.

-1-

[jmo16mla]

Yes, sorry. Been busy playing softball thus weekend.

[Titus]

@jmo, glad you're back. Content please.

@Tunnel, can you give me post numbers?

[Flench]

As you said Pasche, I agree with the lurker killing but I assume VoteMe is currently being replaced so it would be frowned upon to vote him?

Glass, Stubbs, and Dyslexicon are up next.

But since Pasche is leaving his vote on his mafia suspect so will I, Tunnel isn't a lurker imo.

[Titus]

@Flench why isn't jmo included?

[Flench]

He should be, tho he has posted a bit more, most are low content.