(First of all - I'm so sorry for my horrible low activity. I'll try avoid having to be replaced, but if I keep being this bad at keeping up I might decide to. It's not really fair for the game.)
In post 782, CherryDrPepper wrote:@Dyslexicon: Re: Titus: Yes, at least until Varsoon claimed that would make it more believable for me
Another thing tho, since you like numbers you say there's a 1% chance that BOTH are town, however looking at them individually what are the chances of one individually being town, and what are the chances of both being scum?, technically the same could be said to any PR claim in the future, are you gonna lynch all of them?
-Sakura Hana
Titus wouldn't know Varsoon would claim though, so probing for information isn't really a problem the way I see it.
The 1% is a fact (or rather 1,25% if my math stands correct), however I can't accurately describe their chances individually the same way, but I think Varsoon is more likely scum than Saki given his behavior throughout the game, especially this latest. However, both of them joining up now is highly suspicious, and one of them flipping scum wouldn't make the other conf town. Also, it's the presense of a CC that makes me want a lynch here, not a singel PR claim which is something entirely different, so it makes no sense drawing that connection.
In post 858, Titus wrote:TunnelVision - Most likely town. TunnelVision has said his playstyle matches my own and he sees the same issues I see a lot. Unfortunately, this makes me really tempted to lie and see if he sheeps with me or not. There's no point to this on Day 1 but I'll have to scrutinze him closer. TunnelVision's votes are thought out and he emphasizes the wrong point from time to time. I do that sometimes myself. Which one of you is number 1 (the hydra head with the playstyle like mine)? I don't see him as a lurker, but some do so I put him here.
This is curious, because I don't see that much similarity between you, in that TV is much more aggressive, and you even pointed out that you didn't agree on everything. Do you agree/disagree with this?
In post 869, Varsoon wrote:See, this is why you're having trouble following me, and, ergo, reading me as scum.
I don't play by the same rules.
This and your whole level-discussion is just bad and irrelevant. Please stop it, whatever your alignment is. We can discuss fun game theory after the game is over.
In post 878, Titus wrote:I asked Paschendale that because I wanted to confirm that I could indeed go after Varsoon 100% without disrupting any plans he had for the town or if the wall would be too long for him to manage. I wasn't going to have my wall of new information up rapidly, so I tried to take the most economical apprach.
What plans would this be i.e?
In post 881, Saki wrote:Drop the numbers argument, please.
Whoever's using it just seems to agree that there can't be two TRBs 'cause it's a 1% chance.
Therefore one of (Saki, Varsoon) is lying and scum.
Why should we drop it? Why isn't this valid as an argument?
In post 928, Paschendale wrote:@Everyone - Please answer the following question. This question is designed to probe relationships between players and get more direct hold your feet to the fire information.
If you had to pick one person as scum, other than Varsoon, who would you pick and why? Why must include more than a gut feeling.
If you had to pick one person as town, other than Paschendale, who would you pick and why? Why must include more than a gut feeling.
Scum pick - Cherry, seems to be pushing an agenda more than looking. I've had this feeling from quite early on. Pulls out rather arbitrary points to paint people scum (like in #872).
Town pick - Flench, reasonable and relevant analysis and questioning, seems very from a town angle.
In post 947, CherryDrPepper wrote:Titus, stop the math. The 99 percent thing seems like you just want a potential roleblocker lynched. Stop using information over analysis WE ARE NOT LYNCHING A CLAIMED ROLEBLOCKER TODAY. I love how you peg me and Varsoon as scum but completely wash your hands off it by asking "What do you think" istead of providing analysis of your own.
Again, why drop "the math" argument just because it is math. That it is fact and not mere inerpretation like most of the arguments in mafia makes it even more compelling imo.
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Still holding my vote on Varsoon. I think he is the most likely to be scum, and yes this is both based on his behavior and the math. His vague explanation and refutation on his scummy play lately isn't convincing me otherwise. Out of Varsoon and Saki, Saki is the one acting more town to me based on his careless attitude and omgusy tendencies. Relying on this CC-business to be sorted out is also risky, and we have no guarantee for this to actually happen without it getting messy.
