Open 512: See Nine Plus Plus (Game Ovah)

[oriole]

The Case for Lynching Varsoon

1. The lynch should be between Varsoon and Saki because there is about a 1% chance of them both being town. If they both were town, I should be getting a lot more encouragement on this point. Given there is NO certainty in mafia, this is as close as we are going to get that one of the two is indeed scum. Furthermore, a scum player would know they'd be lynched if the other one dies.

Enough people aren't pushing the lynch as between Varsoon and Saki? There's an L-3 wagon on Varsoon.

[Titus]

4 out of 13 is just too small to be right plus two of those lurk (jmo and Dys) a third is a midrange lurker. I am the only heavily active one on the train which makes no sense given the odds and Varsoon's contradictions.

There's a lot off abou Cherry if Varsoon is scum btw.

[oriole]

@Paschendale, would you like me to put up my case on Varsoon with my lurker wall?

Why did you ask Paschendale this?

[Titus]

I asked Paschendale that because I wanted to confirm that I could indeed go after Varsoon 100% without disrupting any plans he had for the town or if the wall would be too long for him to manage. I wasn't going to have my wall of new information up rapidly, so I tried to take the most economical apprach.

[Does Bo Know]

Votecount 1.34

[L-3] Varsoon - jmo16mla, Dyslexicon, Titus, TunnelVision
[L-4] Vote Me - oriole, Paschendale, Flench
[L-5] jmo16mla - StubbsKVM, Varsoon
[L-6] Titus - Saki
[L-6] TunnelVision - CherryDrPepper

Not Voting: Vote Me, Glass

With 13 alive, it takes 7 to lynch!

Deadline is Friday, August 2nd, 2013 at 7:30 PM CST ((expired on 2013-08-02 19:30:00)).

---

StubbsKVM is V/LA until July 22nd.

[oriole]

I asked Paschendale that because I wanted to confirm that I could indeed go after Varsoon 100% without disrupting any plans he had for the town or

if the wall would be too long for him to manage

. I wasn't going to have my wall of new information up rapidly, so I tried to take the most economical apprach.

Disrupting any plans he had for the town? Can you elaborate on that?

[Saki]

For everyone slinging shit at me for the claim

-Attribute it to my newbiness
but also
-Attribute it to Titus misrep
-Attribute it to "town lurkers"
(-Attribute it to Saki being frustrated at town at that time)

I also explained my reasons for self-voting to L-1. (582)
Now shut the fuck up about it, seriously. *cough* TV and Glass *cough*


Lurker activity pre-Saki-claim (when I was the only potential lynch)

If town thought I was scum, they'd pressure me and hop on the wagon instead of leaving me at L-3 the whole time.
If town thought I was null, they'd pressure/question/try their hardest to read me and then get into the category above or below.
If town thought I was town, they'd try to prevent my lynch.

Now whoever's not doing any of these three pre-claim or even post-claim I have no problem lynching (Tunnel, Stubbs, JMO, Glass, Dyx)
TL: All of my reads on them are going to be scummy by default.

Flench is a special case I'm loving his analysis. Though he needs to apologize for leaving that vote on me the entire time.

Vote Me

Fine with lynching him tomorrow. Hope he says something after he gets back. Apparently he's not hoping to see Varsoon lynched by then, me neither. (Then I'm not fine with lynching him, I guess?)

jmo16mla

I'd stick my vote on this guy if Titus wasn't here. "I wanna lynch someone but I'm not providing any arguments for it nor am I going to defend against points made against me." String him up tomorrow or the day after.

Glass

Fine with lynching him tomorrow. Points he's making obviously show that he's not reading the thread at all. Liking his willingness to not lynch Varsoon and me but he has not provided his thoughts on alternatives and the reasons he gives for not lynching me or Varsoon (613) are pretty much bull.

StubbsKVM

Fine with lynching him tomorrow. Though he did notice the 'saki wants to claim' misrep. Though he does want to lynch JMO who's not Saki or Varsoon. Though he did actually declare V/LA. Don't like him.

CherryDrPepper

Was sure this one was scum, not so sure any more.

TunnelVision

Screams scum. Tunnel me and Varsoon and make a passing remark about Glass. Attempts to make case on scum-Varsoon reads town but I don't like his case. Says he'll tunnel me and Varsoon 'till he gets all his questions answered. Don't see him making any post direct to me so I guess his questions about me have been answered? Not liking him for letting me off the hook that easily.

Titus

His stance on me has taken a huuuuuge 180. I'm scum, you made me claim then doubted that claim and believed Varsoon's and argued my claim for a page before clearing me only to put that vote back on me again.

Recently he's come to saying that I'm newbtown for the exact same reasons he thought I was scum.

She's pretty much solid scum. Lynch her today.

Paschendale

This is just here so my wall is longer.

Saki

Same as Pasche.

Dyslexicon

<3 780 Just wish he was more active. Rather not lynch him.

oriole

Drops in and out with frequent analysis. Less active than most yet, on the iffy line between lurking and contributing. Inactivity is sorta cleared when you consider time for all that analysis and a few days to V/LA. Rather not lynch him.

Flench

Lovely analysis, as I said. Probably too late to request more 'cause I wanted to see more. Inactivity is sorta cleared when you consider a day V/LA and time to do all that analysis (similar to oriole). Rather not lynch him either.

Varsoon

Now, I think he's town. I still have problems with believing everything he says and his interactions with Titus. Also I do have problems with how he seems to focus only on one topic at a time and completely lose sight of others.

I has problems with his playstyle. Don't lynch him it's more likely that he'll die in another fashion.

Drop the numbers argument, please.

Whoever's using it just seems to agree that there can't be two TRBs 'cause it's a 1% chance.
Therefore one of (Saki, Varsoon) is lying and scum.

I don't get the link between this statement and the statement above. ('cause there is no link)

Also before you start sheeping Titus in that fashion

Entertain the chance that me and Varsoon are both town in general.
Entertain the chance that both me and Varsoon are both scum.
Entertain the chance that I'm TRB and Varsoon is the SK (my backup scenario in the case that I decide I don't like him as town anymore).


Or please link how me and Varsoon not being TRB due to numbers lead to the fact that we should lynch between me and him.

[Saki]

outdated wall here.

you yell at me to stfu but you don't say crap to Titus

[Saki]

Also I don't think every lurker is scum but I don't like every one of them.

[Titus]

@Oriole, don't know what plans Paschendale had, so I just asked in case I was going to interfere.

You laugh but I actually just referred to post numbers rather than quoting to keep the wall length reasonable.

Do you think either of the roleblockers are lying oriole? Do you see flaws in my case?

@Saki, I isoed you and saw I was making a mistake. Basically, your case is that I FoSed you and you are butt hurt. I never did misrep you but we've argued that road repeatedly. I thought you wanted to claim. You argue you didn't.

[oriole]

Titus- This is pretty much where I am right now.

At the moment, though, I believe both of them. Or rather, I don't disbelieve either enough to vote for [Saki or Varsoon].

I'd much rather let the night actions sort it out.

[Paschendale]

Is Vote Me somebody's alt? New account earlier this month, and no posts outside of signing up for this game and the 5 posts this game. If not, definitely hasn't played his intro newbie game. Also, no posts anywhere else on the site, so he's seriously just disappeared for almost four full days by now. He's not even here to respond to pressure, and I'd rather put my vote to some good use.

Vote: Tunnelvision

A passionless attempt to hop on what looks like a likely wagon for extremely bad reasons that can be dismissed later on as "well he shouldn't have played so weird" in the event of a mislynch... scummy.

[Titus]

Come on Saki a 99 percent chance that either Varsoon or you is scum and you want a link? It's basic math.

Step 1 - Calculate the odds of one roleblocker being present when seven chances are used. There is a five percent chance of any given slot being a roleblocker.This also means a 95 percent chance it isn't. To calculate the odds of any spot being a roleblocker, the equation is 1 - .95(roleblockslotpower). In this case, it is .95 to the seventh. 1 -.7 = .30.

Step 2 - Repeat the above for 6 slots. That's .25.

Step 3 - Repeat for 5 slots.

Step 4 - Multiply steps 1 through 3.

That's how you calculate odds of multiple items occurring in a random setup. Step 1 calculates the odds of one B getting rolled. Stepp 2 counts for two roleblockers. Step 3 counts for the third. Since all three must occur, you multiply the results from steps 1 through 3.


That leaves a ridiculous odds that both Saki and Varsoon are town.

[Titus]

@Paschendale, I really don't see WHY this is happening. We are letting nearly certain scum go on day 1. It makes no sense.

[oriole]

... Or, you can use a binomial distribution calculator. It's much easier.

That same "99% chance" will be there tomorrow. Might as well have some night actions to help.

I don't want this day to turn into a Varsoon v. Saki 1v1, and it shouldn't.

[Titus]

Yeah. It will be there tomorrow but with one less active townie unless the roleblocker/possible doctor guesses right. Plus, we are going down the route of a possible mislynch because the chance would be there tomorrow.

If a cop had a guilty on someone and the other player cced cop, would we really put off the lynch? Of course nt. But this is as close as we get to day 1 confirmed scum.

[TunnelVision]

I feel like I'm on a different planet where logic and reason don't apply. Good grief.

Let's start here:

This is just me but I think TunnelVision slipped or at least made a bad call.

If you are right about Saki, and honestly a town role blocker...

we have two outted power roles on D1 for no apparent gain to the town. You'll likely both be dead in short order. I have to believe we would be in a better situation if you hadn't claimed. Does that make sense at level 3 sir? If you're town and Saki is town, you severely gimped the town by claiming RB instead of checking the game setup first.

My money is on scum

, because I do respect and value your intelligence. And the majority of my case stands, despite your meta/levels/snark/arrogance.

-1-

First bolded indicates the phrase "If you were right", the next claims "my money is on scum". The problem here is that the if you were right part indicates that he doesnt think Varsoon is scum because scum dont need to be right about claims, theyre out for mislynches. Anyway, I think TV got more active around the time an easy wagon on Varsoon formed and while I havent been as active and I also thought Varsoon could be scum, I think Tunnel is someone we should look at

There's no slip or bad call, I think he's scum. That post was in response to him claiming that my case against him denied him "agency and intelligence." The reality is, I think he's smart. I think he's too smart to counter claim without looking at the game setup first. My IF statement is putting myself into the scenario he is selling (Saki and Varsoon both town) and testing the logic of his defense/argument... I don't believe him, I'm just looking at the scenario that he's painted for us. I'm pointing out that regardless of his alignment his play was anti-town and the conclusion is that because I think he's intelligent, he wouldn't have made that lousy play as a townie. Let me be more clear, and briefly illustrate the two scenarios (both assume that Saki is town):

1) Varsoon is town. He made what I believe to be an anti-town play by counterclaiming roleblocker without checking the game setup.
2) Varsoon is mafia. His roleclaim is a calculated anti-town play that has a number of potential plays/applications/risks/rewards. (This is the scenario that I believe to be true.)

My belief is that he's too smart for 1. The guy puts a lot of time into the game. Lots of posts, lots of thought, lots of theories... Understanding the game setup doesn't take much. He comfortable using numbers in his arguments, and the math for game setup options is quite simple and laid out neatly on that wiki page. Add on that people who seem to know him better than I also believe he's lying about game setup knowledge (Pasche in 842, I think somebody else said it too.) It just doesn't add up. It fails the logic test. I don't see how Town Varsoon could possible think that it was wise (and helpful to town) to counter claim without digging into the game setup (let alone trying other options if he really believed Saki was scum claiming a PR.) Quotes demonstrating that Varsoon's reason for CC'ing was because he didn't check game setup (because apparently I need to provide quotes to support everything I say):

@Tunnel: My reason for counterclaiming was because I am the Roleblocker, and so if Saki is lying/scum, we caught a scum PR on D1. That's pretty good, regardless of the cost.

8) My town motivation for CC'ing RB is because I wasn't aware the setup could have two RBs in it for town. Furthermore, I [AM IN A GAME I CANT TALK ABOUT SO I WONT] have seen VTs claim PRs on D1, which is why I pulled back even harder. My current standing is that Saki is either a VT or is actually a town RB like I am.

The biggest part of his defense to logic based accusations is, "Guys, I'm playing scummy pretending to be a Village Idiot, so all that scummy stuff I've done was on purpose to help me find scum... because only the real scum will suspect that my scummy moves were because I am actually scum. But duh, I'm town. Why else would I act so scummy?" Really? Wow.

Additional support for my case to follow shortly.

For those who've asked/mentioned, I've been the only TunnelVision hydra head to post thus far. Head 2 is on V/LA until tomorrow (which I clearly stated in post 235, but nobody seemed to read it/answer me.)

-1-

[oriole]

If a cop had a guilty on someone and the other player cced cop, would we really put off the lynch? Of course nt. But this is as close as we get to day 1 confirmed scum.

Situations aren't comparable, though. Neither of the roleblockers has claimed to block the other (and you'd have to be pretty stupid to).

[Titus]

@Tunnelvision - Read post 872 supposing the following propositions and rate the plausibility please.

1)Both Cherry and Varsoon are town.

2) Both Cherry and Varsoon are scum.

3) Varsoon only is scum.

4) Cherry only is scum.

[Titus]

If a cop had a guilty on someone and the other player cced cop, would we really put off the lynch? Of course nt. But this is as close as we get to day 1 confirmed scum.

Situations aren't comparable, though. Neither of the roleblockers has claimed to block the other (and you'd have to be pretty stupid to).

They are comparable though. One cop is almost certainly lying about being a cop. There's ridiculous odds they both could be townies and lying to lynch each other but the most likely scenario is that one os scum. We have nearly the same setup here.

[oriole]

@Titus - Supposing the following propositions, please rate the plausibility.

1) Saki and Varsoon are both town.

2) Scum!Saki was counter-claimed by Town!Varsoon.

3) Town!Saki was counter-claimed by Scum!Varsoon.

4) Saki and Varsoon are both scum.

[Titus]

1) Very remote; possible only in theory. Neither wanted to back off their claim, which would have been the only way I could see them both as town. Possible in theory only.

2) Possible but unlikely. Saki is an expert actor if he is indeed scum. Given his play that I have seen, I don't think Saki could consistently fake the range he's been showing.

3) Most likely. This is consistent with both Varsoon's and Saki's play so far.

4) Possible but unlikely. That would require the scums to vote up Saki to almost a fatal lynch, back off and then Saki tobe a good actor which I don't buy.

[Titus]

Oriole, please look at my Varsoon case for what flaws you might see. I asked you once and you just stated your position.

[oriole]

OK. So what scum motive is behind scum-Varsoon counterclaiming Saki, then? (I'd like TV to answer this too).

(This actually addresses the p-edit a bit too)

[CherryDrPepper]

Titus and Tunnel could be scum together