/in-vitational 2 - Chosen, Karaoke - Game over! before 830

[Scien]

Eh.

Chosen is new to me. So this will be interesting.

I have a big question at this point, and I would hate to ruin the town's chances by me stating the obvious, so I'm going to relegate that question to the mod first... to ensure that my thoughts are not misplaced.

Besides that I will ask a question and answer those that are out.

What do you plan to do if we get a week into the game and one player no has done anything helpful so far as participation goes? What if there be more than one player in that category?

I would do nothing, but more on that later.

Based on your role what do you think your chances of being the chosen are and why? For Troll the answer be about 1/6. Troll will give reasons after all have answered.

I am deliberately not going to answer this due to the big question I mentioned above. When I get an answer from the mod, or if I don't get an answer, I will try and comment on this.

What thoughts do any have about how we can use the setup to our advantage?

I will answer that after I get some responses to my own question.

---

To everyone as well I would like to add this:
As a townie in this set up, do you believe that it is wise to lynch each day? Do you believe that random voting is still a good way to pressure people for tells? If we get into a position where there is no one that looks especially good for a lynch do you think that the town should still try and lynch someone? Why do you think like you do for each of these questions.

I should note that I am not going to participate in random voting or suspicions at this point until my suspicions are confirmed or denied by the mod. Sorry and thank you.

[Scien]

Nevermind. Incognito is on the ball and awesome and because of this answered immediately. I will not tell you what my concern was until we have everyone contribute to the questions that are out at the moment. Please keep this in mind and comment on this if/when I forget about mentioning it.

What do you plan to do if we get a week into the game and one player no has done anything helpful so far as participation goes? What if there be more than one player in that category?

A better answer for you. I would do nothing. Pressure is on the town to do something in the event of deadlock. However unless we are fighting that constraint I believe the town's best interest is in waiting. The chosen are untouchable from the scum during night. The scum have to get us townies to lynch them during the day.

What this has done is basically slightly change the day role of the town in my mind:
In a normal mafia game, the town uses day lynches to gather information about player links and whatnot. However in this setup, even though the town still stands to gain from day kills during day lynches, the penalty for failure is much higher. While it will still be necessary for day kills to happen, we should be a little more careful about using them.

Based on your role what do you think your chances of being the chosen are and why? For Troll the answer be about 1/6. Troll will give reasons after all have answered.

My reluctance was due to me not understanding fully game mechanics in chosen. Before I explain that, I will allow others to comment. I will answer your question with 2/7 without explanation at this point.

What thoughts do any have about how we can use the setup to our advantage?

Even though the town is eventually the one that has to force an action in deadlock, in reality I believe the pressure is still on the scum. They have to work hard to convince town to lynch chosen. They know who the chosen is, and the town do not. The town should be VERY reluctant to buy into talk within the day, if they do not also share the beliefs. I believe the town

might

actually have some of the benefit in this setup. Even though the pressure is on us townies, the scum have to overextend to try and convince us to day kill a chosen. We can use this to the advantage I believe. If you would like me to elaborate, I can, but would rather not say to much yet.

My question still stands to all. That includes you Sajin. Thanks.

[Scien]

There goes my attempts to be sneaky.

[Scien]

No.

We had a perfect opportunity there. There was a misconception about the rules. I made the same one.

I answered the questions that were posed, without explicitly bringing out the rules misconception. I posed my own questions, hoping to further include others in conversation. I waited/am waiting to fully explain my position until we get others to comment.

Hence 'sneaky'.

We could have allowed the other scum to walk right into the same mistake. But meh, thats not a possibility now.

[Scien]

Meh. Continuing the Mitey/Zorblag/Scien train of thought then:

Why is it black or white? Why is it lynch or don't lynch.

I understand your reasoning, truly I do. But it seems to me to be a bit of handicapping to claim that we 'have' to either lynch or no lynch each day and night. It seems to me that it would be better suited to make the decision based on the current game state. It why give up town options before we have enough information to determine if those options are a better decision for the town to make?

Continuing with Hohum's discussion:

Are you on board with this?

Not yet. I am still not convinced that 'lynch,lynch,lynch' is the answer in this set up.

To both discussions. The scum can still night kill, and that still gives the town information. Why be aggressive about day killing when you can still question, and examine night kills during the day? Why is do you believe that this setup is such a black and white issue?

[Scien]

I disagree.

In this set up even the scum can't just NK, NK, NK without thinking about it.

They can't hit Chosen. They can't kill everyone but chosen. NK's also mean a bit more in this setup. Just like day lynches mean more in this set up.

You disagree?

[Scien]

If we no lynched before we lynched a chosen we put ourselves at disadvantage.

Heh. Thats a slightly good point. Something I didn't think about at least. However it is still leaning a bit towards the black and white mindset I think. You are suggesting that we should be afraid of that scenario enough to completely ignore one of the town's win conditions?

Could you explain why you think this?

[Scien]

And a question to Hohum, just to confuse the threads of thoughts more.

If anyone here is scum, they would know the chosen. Why would they come right out with a 'rolefish' if the 'fished' the roles already through game setup PMs? Why be as positive as you are that this is a scum tell? I don't hold this suspicious yet, but would like to hear your reasoning.

[Scien]

Stompy thread is stompy on other peoples posts.

[Scien]

Sorry folks, its hard for me to post on weekends. Here is some of my thoughts during reread.

This was in Zorblag's initial post:

First, scum can daytalk.

I know you probably have good reason for posting this, would you mind telling me why? Or are you wanting to leave that vague?

I will not tell you what my concern was until we have everyone contribute to the questions that are out at the moment. Please keep this in mind and comment on this if/when I forget about mentioning it.

I too didn't fully understand if the Chosen would receive PMs, but I also didn't want to spoil anything until I got things answered from the mod. I know I suggested this, but I wanted to explicitly state it since I promised I would.

Scien, Troll thinks that lynching probably still does be in the towns interest. We have two routes to victory in this game. We can keep the chosen alive or lynch the scum. Either one will win just fine whether or not we do the other. If we never lynch then the scum eventually have the advantage as town has to lynch before scum has to night kill. Early lynches both give us information and are less likely to hit a chosen (based on numbers of other targets available) than later lynches if we're just letting the scum kill at night.

It do be a tricky issue but Troll be pretty sure that reasoned lynches will tend to favor the town.

All this makes sense. However I still urge that people don't discount a no-lynch day in the future if it seems to benefit the town. I understand that it might be risky... and looking at it generally might help scum, but in isolated cases can be a powerful tool for town.

Proof by counter-example, lets say we get close to game end and no chosen are hit yet. People have played well, and a target is hard to find for a day lynch. We have the ability to no-lynch and close to end game that would force the scum to non-lynch as well, buying some time to make a more informed decision. Or how about a similar case were we try to trick the scum into lynching into the town win condition... Hey never discount petty tricks, they often work.

Why are you trying to be sneaky Scien?

Did I answer this to your satisfaction with the below?

I answered the questions that were posed, without explicitly bringing out the rules misconception. I posed my own questions, hoping to further include others in conversation. I waited/am waiting to fully explain my position until we get others to comment.

Hence 'sneaky'.

We could have allowed the other scum to walk right into the same mistake. But meh, thats not a possibility now.

That was easy.

Heh, I don't think I have ever heard you so silent before. Strange.

I'd rather conduct productive lynches rather than try and play "a perfect game" because it gives the scum less opportunity to introduce WIOFM into the town's thought processes.

I was not suggesting a 'perfect' game. I was suggesting that we not ignore a tool of the town while we still have it.

This question is still out I believe:

If anyone here is scum, they would know the chosen. Why would they come right out with a 'rolefish' if the 'fished' the roles already through game setup PMs? Why be as positive as you are that this is a scum tell? I don't hold this suspicious yet, but would like to hear your reasoning.

[On people not voting] This is bad.

I disagree and I can go all into that fight again if you guys wish. However if you are just asking for my main suspicion at the moment it is to Hohum.
So

FOS: Hohum

. This is due to the question out to Hohum above.

Although Qwints is looking strange to me at the moment, now that I am catching up:
People are already on the path of clarifying his posts with anything I would have asked, so I will stay out of it until something bugging me is left unsaid.

[Scien]

No-lynching and/or random-lynching [if there is a good way to do so] are powerful tools in the town's arsenal.

I would like to hear what you thinking is behind the random lynching. Are you suggesting fully random lynching? Or what?

[Scien]

Because random-lynching is more likely to hit non-chosen or scum instead of chosen, it might make sense to incorporate a random element into choosing who to lynch.

Eh?! How so. How would random-lynching be MORE likely to hit a non-chosen?

[Scien]

Non-chosen includes scum in that above comment.

Random is random... everyone is equally likely right? Scum, non-chosen, and chosen alike.

[Scien]

You don't see that you are completely ignoring information that you can gain by examining others play by using that method? How is ignoring information a good thing?

This mentality either reeks of a basic misunderstanding, or a scum suggestion. Sounds very much like an attempt to get the town to hit pro-town playing chosen. You disagree?

[Scien]

@Scien can you comment about my math?

Sure, I can attempt too. Although I typically dislike these exercises a bit due to completely ignoring information gained through the game. Plus you have admitted yourself that it is an overly simplified analysis. Fair, but that means I have to give everything a bit more thought about full implications.

2: We try to save chosen. From a purely mathmatical standpoint we have to avoid lynching 2 people of 7 (scum are indifferent when it comes to these odds). This means that scum playing to make this harderest on us would not kill and we would have to lynch correctly 5 times of the 5.

Not necessarily. The scum will most likely want to kill at night, at least in early game. This means that we don't have to lynch at all, and the scum would be doing some of the work here. I know that you are just setting up the black and white cases, and had to pick a worst case, but still I believe that this would be a bit atypical. I could be wrong, but meh.

1 Lynch scum: 7 players 3 lynches to catch 2 of 7.

I think you are saying if we hit scum on day 1? Then we would have 4 chances to hit 1 out of 7 right? Or did I miscount.

From there it goes into a bunch of statistics, which might be correct but I am not going to analyze, due to my views on how information effects the game too much to discount.

I will say I understand how lynching is pretty close to being as valuable here as it is in normal mafia. However I still hold that there might be times where it would be better to see if the mafia would make a move while we wait. All depends on current game state.

[Scien]

Scien, Troll sees the question of whether scum can talk during the day come up much more often than it should. In this case Troll was preemptively pointing that out for those who no had fully read and understood the rules. The conversation in these first four pages leads Troll to believe that it was worth doing. The same thing went for the two week deadlines. Further, concerning the no lynch option Troll does plan to keep an open mind but there be an issue Troll thinks you be omitting that Troll will bring up after the game be over or when it becomes pertinent.

Fair. I'm not going to pressure you for whatever I am missing at the moment because, quite frankly, I don't see it. But the rest of this is what I would expect from a competent player or a townie. At least at the moment.

hohum be blustery but that do be how him plays so it no means that much. Papa Zito seems flightier than normal (that no be a great term but Troll will use it for now) and Scien seems overly tentative.

Hohum? Always 'blustery'. Not in the talks to much sense, but in the overly aggressive sense. Don't get me wrong, this is not necessarily a bad thing, but it a style that makes sense, I take it you know this from your troll speak. My experience with it is only one game, but it is pretty much the same, so null tell for me.

Zito? Flightier? Quiet and rolling with the flow is how I would describe it at the moment... holding judgement at the moment, especially since I have seen him as both town and scum and both times he was more vocal than this.

Me? New game mechanic... I am going to examine carefully. My mention of adjusting to new surroundings based on what I learn, which I mentioned is a trait of mine in a past game with you, was no lie. New ground is going to shut me up a bit until I learn. Please call me out on this if you wish more discussion.

Past that Troll needs to take the time when Troll be more fully awake and aware to look over everything. Troll will have that by tomorrow and apologizes for the delay.

Waiting patiently :)

Besides all that, please answer my previous question Hohum. Here it is again for you:

If anyone here is scum, they would know the chosen. Why would they come right out with a 'rolefish' if the 'fished' the roles already through game setup PMs? Why be as positive as you are that this is a scum tell? I don't hold this suspicious yet, but would like to hear your reasoning.

This is relevant since you are basically tunneling someone at the moment for the mere fact that they are rolefishing.

Thank you for your answer, hopefully.

[Scien]

I wouldn't consider me calling you out for being quiet and just going with the flow the same as defending you.

Not understanding you? Sure.

But defending you? I don't know if I would go that far.

[Scien]

Hmm... well before you can get far enough to start having a defense along the roads of "Well that was then and this is now", would you mind answering my question about why you were so adamant that Sajin's error was a scum tell?

Here it is again for a third time for you Hohum:

If anyone here is scum, they would know the chosen. Why would they come right out with a 'rolefish' if the 'fished' the roles already through game setup PMs? Why be as positive as you are that this is a scum tell? I don't hold this suspicious yet, but would like to hear your reasoning.

BTW the FOS is turning to a vote the next time you post without answering this.

This is exactly why I don't like leading with a vote to the rest of you. People ignore you and your only recourse is a vote. If you lead with it, you have no recourse besides jumping up and down and making a lot of noise for no benefit.

[Scien]

Defending myself? Hardly.

Any game I've played in, in both scum or town roles, I have made this claim. That's because I believe it.

If I lead with a vote, and the person I am questioning does not answer, all I can do is ask more questions that will likely be ignored, and scream at them to answer which will also likely be ignored.

It is much more natural to lead with questions to try and get answers and then vote later if answers are slow in coming.

This is defending no one. Not even myself. It is what I regard as the most efficient action.

I think you are claiming that I am defending myself? Meh. Maybe it appears that way, but I assure you that is not the reasoning behind my actions.

[Scien]

Please point out to me where I said he was role fishing.

Meh. Fair kind of. You never explicitly said he was rolefishing. However others in the pursuit that you were involved with against Sajin did make that claim. So its not fair to attribute to you, you are right.

However, you are making the claim that he has not carefully read whatever role pm he as received or whatever role pm would have been sent to others. Could you explain why you think

this

is not merely a mistake and rather a scum tell? What makes it being a scum tell more likely than being a mistake? My poorly worded question before was meant to be less about what you were accusing him of, and more of why you were accusing him so far.

Even reading back a third time at your posts, I did not find many reasons for your assertions. I am just asking for those. Sorry I confused you.

How would you suggest we go about scum hunting then? By not voting you're effectively mooting the only pressure tactic that we have as a town.

Also as I have said in almost every game I have played in, discussion is the towns main weapon. Discussion pressures. Discussion digs for information. Discussion shares views. Discussion makes hidden motives known.

Discussion and information are king. Voting is used for

additional

pressure. I still hold to this, and I still think that discussion is the main weapon town has against scum.

[Scien]

Discussion is NOT the town's main weapon. Pressure is. Nobody drops scum tells until they're pressured to do so. Period. You're just simply WRONG.

And you are quite simply ignorant. I explicitly said in the same post that discussion is used for pressure. Pressure is not spontaneous. It has to be generated from some tool. Discussion is the primary tool. Voting is the secondary. Voting first without attempting discussion provides

less

pressure than a vote after discussion.

Mistakes need to be pursued rigerously, period. You can't give anyone the BoTD in this game, otherwise scum could simply hide behind their mistakes and achieve a 100% win condition.

Almost fair. Mistakes have roots. Understanding the roots is more important than lynching any fool that makes a mistake. Even mistakes have motives. I understand that, and maybe that is what you are telling me is your answer, so I will quit pestering you about it for the meantime. Unless you think I am mistaken here, and in that case I would like to continue discussing this.

[Scien]

Irony all over the above post would almost be amusing.

[Scien]

Irony all over the above post would almost be amusing.

If it were not for the fact that you are making me comment on game theory.

You claimed that I thought pressure was not a town tool. I claimed that discussion was the town's main tool. I never said that pressure was not.

I claimed that discussion was the town's main tool for generating pressure. You claim that I am just arguing game theory after you forced me down this road for three posts.

You tell me that I am "You're just simply WRONG." I say that you are "quite simply ignorant". You claim that this is ad-hominim without self examining.

Then follow it up with a fake quote:

blah blah blah, I clearly need to play in more newbie games

Which is about the most ad-hominim you can get.

[1]You're misinterpreting scum tells based on your skewed view of the world. [2]shut up or do some scum hunting.

1) I disagree.
2) I think you confuse being abrasive and scum hunting. They are not always the same thing, and you don't need one for the other.

[Scien]

Here I will take a page out of your book:

blah blah blah blah. Call names as intentional flame bait.

You are claiming that if I annoy you enough you are going to flat out ignore me? I hope you are lying to make a point.

What you are doing is hardly scum hunting. Its just flaming. Just like our last game.

Maybe that works in Hohum land, but here in reality things like facts and logic mean more than mistakes you make some commit when you have them all pissed off at you.

I think as always that your flaming merely intentional to get reactions out of people. I also think as always that this would be more of a scum tool than a town tool.

[Scien]

I am perfectly calm, and I think my posts will support that. Even to you when you read them later.

I had to drop to the flame level to make you see that at the moment however.

However I still hold that your intentional flaming is designed for one reason. To

provoke

misplays from people.

Provoking is not a good tactic. Yes scum can be provoked into misplays. However townies can also be provoked into misplays that you can capitalize on as well.

Since its a two way street, I believe that it is a tactic that is most successfully pulled as scum. A townie using it could not be as sure that the provoked response was indeed a scum tell. However a scummer can

always

capitalize on misplays derived from this tactic of yours.

As before your play style is going to scream scum to me. This is not based on emotion as you seem to be claiming, but on the observations I have posted above. My FOS still stands at the moment, although now not due to a non-answered question.

Sorry that you believe that this is illogical. However since it is not so to me, my complaints stand.

[Scien]

This has nothing to do with my ego. It has everything to do with what you 'experienced' person can do with this tactic.

It can be

far

more utilized in a scum position than a townie one. I see that you will fail to acknowledge this.

I never said provoking was an 'excellent' tool. I said it was a tool designed to produce misplays. Misplays are inherently not neither pro-town or pro-scum, and the only person that can discern the difference with any degree of certainty is scum. This is even applicable to you since you admit that everyone around you is 'nervous/inexperienced' and that's the way that you 'experienced' people can make use of your tactic.

I never claimed that you should stop voting, or telling people what is on your mind. I would like to see where you say I have.

You are claiming that I am approaching this with too much caution? You are claiming that I am emotional when I am giving you logical reasons for my concerns? You still attempt to provoke me after you state that currently you don't suspect me of yet?

Very well,

Vote: Hohum

[Scien]

Don't you have to vote me or suspect me before I can OMGUS vote you? Strange.

[Scien]

I disagree that it is a theory dispute. I believe you tactic is easily a pro-scum one. The fact that you are using it suggests you have a pro-scum role. I have mentioned this and your main defenses were trying to claim that I am emotional and that it is not a pro-scum as I think, but do not elaborate on the latter.

My vote is to pressure you to provide a better defense. One that is not just trying to bully me around emotionally, since I am not trying to do the same to you at the moment.

If it helps you out a bit, I respond more favorably to logic. I respond less favorably to "you suck", "you are wrong", and "you need to go back to newbie games". Well unless you can back those claims up with logic.

[Scien]

You already said that you also play this way

as

scum. I can't tell the difference.

However I do know that this tactic would benefit a scum player more than a town player.

---

As of

any

first hand meta I have on you, you have never made such a non-baiting post as above. So this is odd.

I was wrong in our last game. So... meh.

Unvote

But IGMEOY.

[Scien]

A few questions for Qwints:

Being defended may actually be a town tell.

Would you mind explaining how so?

That doesn't change the fact that lynching chosen hurts more than lynching scum helps. (Both of which have equal probability at the moment)

Eh, I think that others would disagree with you there based on what we have been talking about up till now. You truly believe that hitting chosen is worse than the benefit of lynching scum?

As for the probability thing, only if we completely ignore information, and pick someone at random. That's the only way the probabilities work out like you guys expect them to in textbook form.

[Scien]

And for Mitey while I am here:

[A] I'm finding this game easier to pick out who is more likely Town than Scum.

Hohum is far louder than I've seen him play in a game with me and Papa is far quieter.

[C] More to come...just want to look over things a bit more.

[A] Oh? Why do you think this is?

Hohum in my mind is about the same as the game I played him in. Except he backed off from a fight (in his own way). That's something he didn't do there. I find it odd, but just merely odd at the moment.

I totally agree with you on PapaZ though. I find the quietness

very

odd.

[C] Cool! Can't wait.

[Scien]

I would mind explaining why being defended is a town tell.

Well thats unfortunate because there is no way it could be a town tell.

If someone is defending someone it means

nothing

about the role of the person being defended.

Either the defending person is pro-town and has no information about the person he is defending, or the defending person is scum, and could equally likely be defending a chosen, townie, or scum. There is no way to discern that knowledge from the mere act of someone being defended.

I believe your suggestion is illogical at best and that your unwillingness to explain your 'beliefs' unhelpful at best. You think I am wrong?

[Scien]

Yes.

Inadequate.

Vote: Qwints

[Scien]

By being unhelpful in this case, I mean withholding information.

Withholding information from the town when it can be used for benefit, and having illogical opinions are scummy actions.

You are right, I never explicitly said you were scummy. So here: these actions make you look scummy.

[Scien]

As as aside, if hohum and I are chosen, town is screwed.

As an aside, the appeal to emotion is noted as well.

[Scien]

What was the phrase? You hunt your way, I hunt my way.

Getting people to explain opinions and actions

will

aid in determining motives. Even picking on little stuff forces people to reveal some of their mind. The more they reveal the more you can get to know them. The more they hide, typically the more they have to hide.

And for the most part Anti-town is anti-town. And anti-town is scummy.

But that's all theory, so I am sure you are going to cry at me for it. In any case, I will continue.

I believe in what I am doing. I also believe that these actions need to be examined.

[Scien]

[Reasoning provided]

And even though I am still processing the thought, and am not sure yet how much the assumptions are likely, that explanation seems like a very thought out answer.

Hmm. Something to think about. Thank you for your response.

Unvote: Qwints

Hohum's defense of me is quite strange. Cuddly hohum freaks me out.

Hah.

[...] anti-town may overlap scummy, but it does not equal scummy.

Meh, fair I suppose. But that does not change the fact that anti-town play can be scummy, and I should examine it. And if necessary believe its scummy in absence of a defense I can believe.

Did you ask the troll to explain the reasoning behind his questions at the beginning of the game. If not, why not?

No, you are right, I didn't. Why not? I made an assumption. My assumption being that he either wanted claimed views from people for the information it contained, or he wanted to look like he wanted the information.

Long story short, I believed it was just a way to start the game.

Besides that, even though I can not read his motives for asking questions, point blank asking him additional questions at that time would have been near useless at that point. He would have just tried to answer in a way that would have made sense and would have likely succeeded no matter what alignment he is. There was nothing overtly illogical that I noticed that I could have tried to examine, if there was I would have tried to examine it...

It would be hard for scum to stand their ground when the likes of PZ, Scien and Nikanor are all playing this game like children who have just been told to go to bed early.

Heh. Fail bait is fail.

[Scien]

I've been having issues getting on to tell you this, but I am currently out of state until around Monday.

I will be hit or miss on the internet... but will need a sec to catch up.

Sorry about this, and sorry I could not get on sooner to let you guys know.

[Scien]

Ok, back and catching up:

[...] because you've been nothing but argumentative for the last 2 pages[...] I can't help it here everyone would rather argue with me than talk to me.

Lawl. Need I say more?

You are using strong arm tactics with several of us in this game.

Just playing devil's advocate here... MM and Sajin, how do you believe strong arm tactics leans between townieness and scumminess? I've given my opinions... but would like to hear yours? Attacking Hohum's methods is just illogical unless you explain how you think those methods can point to him being scum rather than just a dick.

Scien: [1] For one as concerned about the voting with the mechanic we be using in this game Scien no has impressed Troll much at all with the two votes him has cast. Both feel as though them be reactionary rather than based on particularly strong reasons. [2] Troll no be sure whether the quick unvotes make them better or worse in Troll's assessment but it does add to what Troll sees as the tentative nature of Scien's play. [3] Actually, on the whole Troll thinks that Scien seems to be focused on the structure of the game and the play more than the players. Troll might normally think that was scummy but in this setup (and given what Troll knows of how Scien plays as scum) Troll leans away from that.

Eh, a lot here. Let me try and hit it all:
[1] Eh, both of those votes were used as pressure votes. IIRC, both people had repetitively dodged questions or explicitly said they were not going to answer them. The votes were placed in an attempt to try and force answers. After answers were given in both cases I backed off. That doesn't mean I don't suspect them anymore, but rather they started talking and now we can continue discussion.

As for what you are saying about how this works with how I believe votes matter differently than vanilla mafia? Neither of these two people were close to lynch, I doubt I would have behaved the same without very careful consideration if that were the case.

[2] Meh that's for you and the town to decide. The above gives my motives however, and I think that my opinions about the game as a whole will support those motives.

[3] I always am at the start of a new game. Sorry, it might add to the whole signal to noise, but talking about random neutral stuff that actually pertains to this game is a good way for me to get to hear people's stated opinions and for me to start forming my own opinions on them. My focus on game and plays eventually tends to switch to a more wholeistic view of a player when I have seen more content out of them. I have a few games of meta that should support this too.

[Talking about Sajin] He even later stated that he can see how his early posts could be interpreted as a scum tell (post 41) but attempts to reason that latching on to early scum tells is in of itself a scum tell (post 41, my response in 61, his in 62). The notion that I dare question him over a possible scum slip is anti-scum hunting (quite a large scum tell) at best, and downright ludicrous at worst.

Holy crap. This is interesting on several levels.
1) I actually think I agree with some of it. This is strange and new to me, as it is a point made by Hohum. (I kid... I kid...)
2) Others opinions, and some minimal personal experience tells me that talking about you past plays while calling them scummy is actually pretty scummy in itself. My experence comes from replacing in as a scum player in a past game.

If you talk about your past play in these cases, you will often fall for a trap like this. You will want to appear town and examine yourself, when you should already know why you played as you did. You will call yourself scummy as an attempt to show that "you are one of the gang", and by gang I mean townies in this case.

However, in reality you going to the trouble to claim that you do indeed look scummy makes no sense from the shoes of a townie. They would explain their mistakes for the mistakes that they were. They would point to the fact that making the mistakes is not scummy in it self. Basically they would have NO reason to say that "Yes your guys concerns are justified, now here is how I am going to attempt to get out of this hole." They would attempt to get right to the getting out of the hole.

3) I agree with Hohum's claim here. You saying that "yes I look scummy", then picking the loudest voice out of the group to rag on as 'taking advantage of it' is just silly. You apparently forgot the whole 'yes I look scummy' part of your argument.

[still catching up, but I would like to keep the post length down...]

[Scien]

Hohum may have done many things, but adhom is not one of them.

Heh, maybe in your discussion. However in ours I think he was just using it in an attempt to get me irritated with him.

Here Scien admits that he had the same confusion over the Chosen mechanic as Sajin alleges he had. However, this admission goes by without any comment while you continue to slam Sajin over the same thing over and over. Why?

Interesting.

[On his unvote of Qwints] I didn't say I did it to get a reaction. I said I did it because it was useless there.

This has gone around a few times already, and I think I have to be the odd man out and agree with Qwints. Taking a vote full off, just because you don't think it is going to "go anywhere" is not the same action as simultaneously replacing it somewhere you think it would "go somewhere". Basically looking at it 100% objectively:
1) You claim that the vote was used to get information
2) You claim you took the vote off because it was not generating information
3) You never replaced the vote so it never can generate information

You claimed motive doesn't mesh with your action. There has to be either another, or additional motive to why you didn't have a better target at the time of vote removal.

Also keep in mind, I believe you already said below the removal itself was not used for information gathering either:

I didn't realize the earth-shattering importance my vote would have to qwints or I would have.

The major issue with Mitey is that this isn't the first time she's played this style of game.

Eh? Did I miss something? MM has played Chosen before?

Sajin...MiteyMouse is a she! I feel like I say that every game...it's becoming my "thing"...hehehe!

Jeze lady... go to your profile and mark yourself female instead of undeclared. I think you enjoy getting people to apologize to you all the time :P

My previous post's comments about Sajin are what is chiefly on my mind at the moment. That and the question about Mighty's experence with chosen. I will rehash those points with questions here in a bit. I know I have not commented on a lot, but I believe I hit the things that interested me the most. Question me if you would like my opinions on any of the lesser disputes, and I'll get you a question post Sajin.

Oh and btw

FoS: Sajin

[Scien]

Misquoted above. The third quote to the bottom is PapaZ, I typed the wrong name out, but due to the content I think it was obvious anyway I was quoting PapaZ:

I didn't realize the earth-shattering importance my vote would have to qwints or I would have.

[Scien]

I'm voting Cojin, Scien. You're welcome to join us.

Oro? What the heck does that mean? Why should I?

[Scien]

Scien, you be welcome to think what you like of Sajin based on his post 41 but him no be doing what you be describing there.

Meh, I'm not so sure he isn't. Yes he explains that it should be a null tell, true. But not before he comes out and says he knows why people think it is a scum tell. Just because his second point was logical doesn't mean I should ignore the 'I know why you guys think my mistake was scummy' part.

I believe my point stands. If he was town, I believe he would have started with the fact that the mistake should have been a null tell. Not with the statement that he understood it looked scummy.

Its a freggin inconsistancy right there anyway. If he says that he knows that the mistake should not be considered a scum tell because either side could make it, then why would he 'understand' why people are jumping to the conclusion that he is scum? He should have been bewildered by that due to it being a logical mistake for the town to make.

There is a motive there. He wanted to lead with a statement like 'I know that looked bad.' Why would he want to do that? As opposed to just explaining away how it could mean anything at all, like he and others later did.

[Scien]

For the turkey:

us? (goes back to look at votes, sees zito is voting by himself).....us?

Qwints voted after the last vote count. There are two votes on Cojin.

Cojin is obviously misunderstanding the term 'tomorrow' but I will allow those guys to figure all that out. That seems to be the main contention at the moment, is there other concerns that I should have noted PapaZ?

I'm voting Cojin, Scien. You're welcome to join us.

Oro? What the heck does that mean? Why should I?

If I were an optimist, I would assume that you justed wanted additional pressure. However a vote without discussion is meaningless. What would my additional pressure mean if no one is engaging him in dialog?

I don't see your case against Cojin, PapaZ. You have attempted recently to solicit both Zorblag and my votes against Cojin, but I don't think you have yet attempted to ask Cojin anything. Am I wrong?

[Scien]

Scien, again, make what you like of Sajin but when people realizes that them have made a mistake Troll finds it unsurprising that them would think others would see it as scummy. If you want a particularly good example of this take a look at MiteyMouse's mistake in Newbie Game 749 and reaction to being called on it a couple posts later. She, as town, assumes that people will find a mistake in reasoning (in this case mixing up how many scum be left in the game) will make her look scummy and lead to a quick hammer.

Yes, she made a mistake there. All the while it appears that she proclaimed that she was indeed town. She never lead with 'oh that was scummy'. She just assumed that it would lead to her lynch it appears, and cried as hard as she could cry that she was town.

I understand what you are saying. Truly I do. Now shush for a sec Zorblag, I wanna talk to Sajin. Both times I started mentioning it I got a stronger reaction from you than him, and there really is no pressure on him at the moment...

As town I always say- If I was scum I would be doing XXXX. And so I am doing YYYY. I do the same thing as scum though.

That's fair. However saying that your past play is scummy is weird. Do you always do that?

Zorblag has been trying to feed you an answer to my concerns below. But I want to hear it out of your own mouth, probably with elaboration. Just answer what you will please:

[A] I see why you think I was scum. Because I thought people would be able to claim chosen.

But that does not indicate confused scum, or confused townie but just confused. [C] Hohum was willing to take advantage of the confusion though. I like my vote.

[A] is not explicitly necessary for your argument, especially if you believe

at that point in your thought process, which you obviously do because

is in the same post as [A]. Why did you see why people think you scum for a mistake which is obvious at that point could have been made by either side and you admit you realized it was a null tell at that point? This is a question I would like you to answer, not Zorblag.

It is a small jump, one that you are free to contest and I even welcome that contention so we can have discussion, to say that due to [A] you are claiming that before we started talking about the mistake being a null tell, you thought the mistake looked scummy. Is this the case? If not, why did you decide to lead with [A]? If it is the case that you at one point thought making the mistake was scummy, why did you change your mind about your own actions?

[C] is funny as well. If I was asking you these questions around post 41 would you also think me taking advantage of the situation? Would you think me town trying to make sense of your logic? What about now? Am I taking advantage of a past situation? Where is the magic line where questioning you about something that you yourself said was funny in [A] becomes opportunistic scum rather than inquisitive townie? How is Hohum's questioning different than the rest of the town?

All of the above I would like to discuss. Thank you.

[Scien]

Please read Cojin in iso and tell me what you think, Scien.

I see almost zero content. However I did notice that when people specifically hashed out in list form what was asked of him, he answered.

At the moment we have votes on him for inactivity? Because he has hanging questions? My vote will do little to get him to answer I believe. Would you guys list out the hanging questions and confirm your votes first? He might answer then.

Besides, I have already said that I would do nothing if we had to deal with a lurker. Somewhere on the front page I imagine.

[Scien]

Typically? More of a scum tell. In this game? Meh. Less of one, but maybe still a bit on the scummy side.

Doesn't mean that I am just going to lynch him without thinking about it.

What were your questions to him again?

[Scien]

No read. He should contribute more. I agree. People have questions out to him. He is not answering them. Although even I am unsure what those questions are, I guess I could go back and hunt for them.

Me voting him without anyone pressuring him with the questions would be like me voting a brick wall. There is no discussion going. Any additional pressure due to my vote is not going to do much until those questions are asked again.

List out your concerns and questions. Asking people to vote without doing that isn't going to accomplish anything.

[Scien]

Do you see why this behavior shouldn't be tolerated?

You would have to add a chosen being dead to that worse case scenario. We are not there yet. So no. No I don't see why it shouldn't be tolerated. Lurking is scummy, but never enough for me to lynch on for lurking alone. Add it to a case? Then maybe. In a game where we have a no-lynch option and it actually might work out for us in some cases? Then that lessens the whole, 'the lurker is going to be the death of us' complaint in my opinion.

This is not worse case scenario yet. And I don't think the slippery slope that you seem to be suggesting is very likely. 'If we don't get him now, he will do the same when it really matters'. Eh, don't think so.

You mentioned earlier that he's responded to questions. I disagree.

His post 7 in isolation. Questions posed. Questions answered. If you have questions now, why not ask them in the same manner?

Don't get me wrong man. I don't like the way he is playing either. But I have more interesting people to deal with at the moment rather than a lurker.

[1] For the record and for future reference, telling Troll to shush like that be a terrible way to achieve your desired result.

[2] Sajin's initial reaction to making a mistake was to explicitly say that him could see why others would find it scummy and to implicitly assert that he was town. The former we have covered; the later came earlier. In the first post that him made once him realized that him had made a mistake this be what Sajin had to say

[1] Apparently. Here I am asking him questions and it is more like I was examining you. I don't know if this is out of character for you, but I believe in the past you have liked to get the words straight from the horses mouth. It is interesting to me that this is the third time that I have asked questions directly to him, and you have felt the need to comment. Way different than what I know of you. Would you cooperate and let me talk to the man? I promise I won't pull a Hohum on him.

Possibilities?
- You are confident that he is town through his discussions and are trying to convince me of it. Ok, but then why not allow me to get to the same conclusion through discussion with him? Why are you so sure that you don't need to hear from him any more. Answering for him is limiting any additional information you could get out of him at the same time that you are possibly aiding him in finding the most logical answers to my concerns.
- You are confident that he is not town and do not wish for him to make a logical mistake while talking with the town

You are being frustrating.

[2] This is exactly my point. I'm not sure at all that a person in townie shoes needs to do the assertion that they are town by saying 'Hey I know why that was scummy.' It is more typical to assert directly that they are town and explain why the action was

NOT

scummy. Especially when a townie would

know

the action was not scummy, and would not 'know that it was scummy'.

Lets talk about this later.

I am willing to be the lynch but now instead of knowing I am not the chosen, I could be one. That sucks.

It no explicitly claims that him be town but him does the equivalent by saying that him might be a chosen. Him must be town to have a possibility of being a chosen.

You are actually going to use that quote in a defense of him? It is obvious appeal to emotion. Basically a, "Dang it I screwed up... kill me if you want, but dang it I am town."

Appeals to emotion don't work on me.

She no explicitly uses the words that she sees how people could see what she did was scummy but if she didn't hold that opinion why would she expect to be hammered?

Also my point. She may feel the town staring at her, but she didn't pull the, 'opps, that was scummy'. She knew her actions could be explained in a pro-town way. She knew the town was making a mistake. I don't know what she did after but I assume she tried to show the town that a townie could have made the mistake.

She definitely didn't claim that the action itself was scummy. There is a difference here that I would like to discuss with Sajin. Depending on what he says, I may indeed come around to thinking like you do. However, not until me and him talk.

Beyond that particular point, have you been following Troll's conversation with Sajin? Troll no particularly expects him to give answers that will be that useful based on what him has been doing with Troll. If you be using a point which Troll no thinks has merit to attack him then Troll has no trouble at all pointing out the flaws in it as Troll thinks him be likely to be town, him might be a chosen and him be unlikely to be able to do so adequately himself. If it weren't for the possibility of him being the chosen Troll would probably just let Scien do as him likes here but Troll wants to make sure that Scien has thought through the reasons him gives for suspecting Sajin in this game because of that dynamic.

See this is interesting. You are claiming that you believe Sajin town, and so I should not be examining him, based on the fact that he might be chosen and it is risky for the town for me to look at him. That makes absolutely no sense from a player of your caliber. You think me unreasonable, you don't think that I can be swayed by his answers? I know there are issues with my attack. I want him to find him. I want him to have a chance to make a mistake. If he is town the logical counter to my complaints will be clear as day to him. If he is scum he will have to think a little harder and may screw up. But in either case the town would have more information and it would be a good thing.

You trying to stop it based on what you are saying makes NO sense. NO sense. Him talking, if he is town should do no harm. Him talking to me, if my attack is weak, should do NO harm to him. If he answered correctly in his own words, it would either sway me or expose me if you think I am attacking him completely unjustly.

No. This is strange. You are attempting to halt discussion here that should do no harm to town if he is indeed town like you believe him to be. This is way out of character for you.

FoS: Zorblag

Sajin, please answer my concerns on post 422. Even if you decide to use Zorblag's answers I would still like to talk with you.

[Scien]

@MM 434: It is never an either or, and whoever sets things up that way should be examined carefully. Are you doing it here?

Also even though deadline is fast approaching, we have time to discuss yet.

1. Troll no be stopping you from talking to Sajin. Troll no be answering the questions that you be asking him.
[...]
2. When MiteyMouse says, "I really don't blame anyone that hammers me now. To be honest, if I saw that I'd hammer but ..." she most certainly does be acknowledging that her actions seemed scummy.
[...]
3. Sajin no says that his actions were scummy. Him says that him sees how others could see them as scummy. The appeal to emotion that you saying him be making be exactly what MiteyMouse was doing when she said she was town.
[...]
4. Troll never said that you no should be examining Sajin. Troll be saying that the things you be building on here be a weak case. Troll no even be complaining about half of what you be bringing up for that matter (the focus on hohum.) You be welcome to find whatever you like as a case to use against anyone. If Troll thinks them be strong or even neutral Troll will let you make them largely without comment. If you try to push something Troll thinks be weak Troll will explain the troubles Troll has with it.
[...]
5. If Sajin be town that no be any sort of guarantee that him will be able to put forward a decent argument on his own behalf. The reasons no need to be as clear as you be saying them be and even if them were that no means that him would present them well. Further, if him were scum nothing would stop him from being able to come up with the reasons that you have in mind anyhow.

1) Meh.
2) Again I see what you are saying, but would like to discuss that with others.
3) I understand the difference and would like to discuss that with others. As for the appeal to emotion, yes Mitey is also known for using it, here as well as in other games. It wouldn't work on me there either.
4) Meh.
5) Then bring up your complaints when it is obvious that I am attacking him for an issue with him representing himself rather than actions in the game or derived logic. You are doing the town and yourself a disservice by impeding even a a weak attack. Even if you are sure he is town, the attack itself can give you some read on me.

I think I have answered all of those points before with the exception of C.

I don't think you have.
1) Why did you 'see why people think you scum' for a mistake which is obvious at that point could have been made by either side and you admit you realized it was a null tell at that point?
2) It is a small jump to say that due to [A] you are claiming that before we started talking about the mistake being a null tell, you thought the mistake looked scummy. Is this the case? If not, why did you decide to lead with [A]? If it is the case that you at one point thought making the mistake was scummy, why did you change your mind about your own actions?

There is a large difference between your points and hohums. Hohum was charging forth blindly not caring about the other side of the arguement. I was attempting to acknowledge the other side of the arguement. It does not mean I agree with it nor accept it. Take that point of view or leave it. I really don't care.

Meh. You should care. But besides that, so you are saying that your claim that he is 'taking advantage' is based on the way that he 'discussed' with you, and not based on him talking about the mistake? If so then, meh. I guess that is an ok answer.

[Scien]

[Answers some questions]

Meh. Alrighty. Fair enough.

How are you going to get a read on Cojin?

I was making the assumption that once you guys reiterated your questions to him, he would have answered.

Let's play your game and say that he didn't answer ever. And just posted enough to not be replaced. What would I do then? Keep attempting to get him involved or replaced, while having discussion with people actually willing to play the game. It generates more stuff for the town to look at anyway to talk to people who talk, instead of blindly lynching people who are not talking.

This is not sufficeient[sic] reasoning, you have no case

He has no case because you are not answering questions. You are at L-1... are you still going to pretend that everything is fine with your play? Answer the people's questions.

[after a bunch of discussion I really don't understand]

1) If hohum flips town. He will give his vote to the scum every night.

2) If hohum flips scum good ridence.

3) If you lynch me then town/hohum may actually scum hunt instead of tunnel.

4) If you lynch me and I flip chosen- hohum and scien and Nikanor need to be looked at

1) Huh? What do you mean give his vote to scum every night?
2) Fair... but throwing yourself on the chopping block by setting up an either or? I have already said that setting up conditions like that is silly, and scummy.
3) Doubtful. And kind of funny you would suggest this given that you have been saying that he is a hardcore tunneler all along. You honestly think that after he has been playing this way for several games, that one mistake is going to get him to stop? Really?
4) Heh. Look at me all you want.

So either way you lynch from this pairing you eliminate one vote scum would have anyways.

I still don't understand what you mean here.

Troll thinks that both Scien and Troll have very low chances of being chosen.

Meh. You don't think the scum might be reluctant to be the first on a wagon that ends up chosen? Neither of us have had votes. That could just as easily suggest that the scum don't want to call attention by voting us, because then they would be the first building cases on us as well. They would be the most in the spotlight I believe.

I do understand what you are saying though. It could also mean that since there is not a lot of activity around us, it might be suggesting that the scum have no real interest in us.

[WIFOM][Joke] Although, you are the most famous here. You obviously got the scum veto. [/joke][/WIFOM]

[Scien]

Actually it goes beyond the votes. Both of us have gotten very little even in the neighborhood of attacks. As Troll said Troll has gone a bit out of the way to provoke this game and your play has been pretty open to attacks with how close you held your cards to your chest at the start.

My point about the assumption you are making about what the lack of attacks and votes on us means still stands.

Cojin, scumlist please.

Yes please.

[Scien]

my scum list consists of MM or PZ dependent on if one is i feel the other shall be.

Could you elaborate on why?

[Scien]

Uh... but wouldn't scum know exactly how many vetoes they had... well, because they used them?

Its a mistake, and yes it might have been an intentional 'mistake' in order to add to his statistics point he was trying to make, but I think I need more convincing to get make it a blatant scum slip in my mind.

Seems like it would be fairly foolhardy to so blatantly claim rules that are not true anyway in any kind of discussion you would get in.

[Scien]

Oh... you are suggesting the thing I am discussing is what he is trying to do? Get people to believe he is not scum by making a 'mistake' like this.

Do you think he is clever enough to pull that? (No offense intended, I probably wouldn't be clever enough to do so either)

[Scien]

Yuk.

Daytalk. You are right. We are working against a fully functioning team here.

So then... let me ask about the thought process that went into the math:

2. Given my meta i find it unlikly to be vetoed, and a higher chance to be lynched, i would say I am 1/3-1/4 likely to be choosen.

How did you arrive at 1/3 - 1/4?

I have a strong belif that i would be choosen

Why did this change at end of day when compared to the beginning of day? The math wouldn't have changed. So why did your beliefs change?

[Scien]

Scien, Cojin has already avoided earlier questions. What are you trying to prove here?

Hmm. I don't really understand the question. Past actions don't necessarily predict future results. I had questions I thought he could answer, I asked them. What am I trying to prove? Eh, nothing. I wanted answers for my questions.

[1]Further, if Cojin does flip scum Troll thinks that Scien be a pretty reasonable one to consider as a partner. [2] Him has gone out of his way to avoid casting suspicion on lurkers in general and Cojin in particular. [3]Troll thinks, looking back at the exchange that Troll and Scien had about Sajin that Scien has misrepresented both Sajin's reaction to realizing that him made a mistake and Troll's actions during our discussion. [4] The fact that him took as much issue as him did with Troll's statement that him was unlikely to be the chosen (along with Troll) hurts him in Troll's eyes as well.

1) Fair. Consider me all you want.
2) I will reiterate right now that I think blind lurker lynches is a bad policy. This is not the only time I have said something to this regard in both this game and others. It's basically an application of a Monty Hall problem: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monty_Hall_problem. It all boils down to information. Deciding to lynch someone based on a complete lack of information is the same as random rolling at the start of a game. Its always better to utilize information you gain, rather than trust a lack of information as a good enough tell.

As for the second part. Meh, my idea's applied. In this case I was wrong, but this was just one case.

3) I explicitly said I slightly misrepresented what Sajin was saying, to get a response. Your complaint was that resulted in a weak attack. All attacks are weak in day one. Getting people to talk is more important in early game. But we can talk about where I misrepresented you, where was that?

4) Forgive me if I question someone's motives telling me that I should roll over and take one for the team. I still don't think it is as cut and dry as you are making it, but I never took huge issue with it. I think its odd that you think so. I just merely questioned it.

[1] 21 pages later it's clear that we're way too dysfunctional as a town. [...] [2] Good luck, go town. I'll post occasionally just to avoid being replaced but don't expect a commitment from me going forward.

1) Because we discuss? Or because we are not subscribing to your single target methodology?
2) Wow... a pouty Hohum. That's a strange sight. I take it you want me to assume that that is you giving up on the game, and not part of some strategy of yours?

1) I can't get a read on anyone else because the whole game is aligned against me on this sajin lynch. [...] 2) Not enough pack mentality.

1) Meh. I don't think I trust him. I think 'whole town' is an exaggeration. I'll be looking at him today too, after I get a chance to defend myself.
2) Calling dumb pack mentality a good thing, heh. Wagons I might be able to agree with, but just a flat out mob is a different story.

You hammered someone you think is town?

Yeah. If you want to use that to build a case on me go right ahead.

Yes, yes he did. And I don't think that even he can pretend that he wouldn't examine that in any other game. I get that he is claiming that he just wants to move forward, have the game go fast, and basically keep pressure up for scum slips, and even though I disagree with some of his methods I do see what he tries to get out of it (from both a townie and scum perspective), however I don't think that him as a townie can flat out ignore any action. You think we should not even talk about it Hohum? Well, if you are still around.

I would also hold that scien and nikanor are both unlikely chosen. Miteymouse, if not scum, is likely chosen.

Why on all of the above?

Troll thinks that it would have been engineered to make people say "Oh look, that mistake shows that Cojin be town!" The fact that something like it largely worked for Sajin earlier in the game would have been some motivation.

Oh indeed? I can see some truth in what PapaZ is saying as well though. Coming right out and claiming a pro-town view on someone based on it seems like risky business.

Way too

easy to build a connection between scum on. Who was the first person to suggest some kind of subversive 'mistake' plan in thread? I know it wasn't me. I was still wrestling with both sides of what was being discussed at the time.

[1] Basically, as Troll said, the mistake by Cojin at the end almost had to be intentional as him would have known how many names him submitted. [...] [2] Coming up with that takes a bit of sophistication. Troll no means to insult MiteyMouse or Sajin but them be the ones in the game Troll finds least likely to have come up with the idea and Troll no thinks that Cojin would have on his own.

1) Or it might have been a real mistake that is still/was being taken advantage of. Are we really trying going to go down that road?

2) I think I can agree with this. Which is why I am currently very skeptical of you, PapaZ, and Hohum. This works on the other side too. If I am going to be pinned as the author of the mistake when I know I am not, who is most likely to lead this attack? The clever PapaZ, Zorblag, and Hohum. I don't think I can see that from the others, unless I truly am fooled by them.

Keep in mind I am still questioning where you are coming from. So far you have suggested to me that I would be a good lynch in a limited situation, and now are trying to link me to a lynched scum based on me wrestling with a idea being discussed. Both of these counter my view on the game due to me knowing my role.

[On three Scien posts, he thinks looks scummy]

The first two are me wrestling with the idea's posed. The third realizing something. They are what they are.

---

Here lets take a look at the current logic here and let me tell you where I think it is weak.

So the order of events as currently discussed are:
1) Cojin is slipping at day end. Scum need to pull something risky for the save.
2) It is

suggested

that the scum decide to pull a fake 'mistake' to suggest a pro-town role.
3) It is suggested that depending on how you look at it, the scum partner would either rush to defense, or attack of the mistake. Or both, one after the other.
4) Mistake is pulled.
5) ...
6) Town realize it could be a trick and lynch anyway revealing scum.

Area 2 is an assumption. I know its not totally unhealthy to talk about it, and it certainly does aid the town to do so, but it is basically WIFOM. Yes the mistake could have been planned, and that suggests certain things. However the mistake could have been a slip all on its own, and suggest nothing. We have no way to know one way or the other currently.

For every accusation you throw my way based on 2 by saying I planned something, I can turn around and say you are manipulating a simple mistake and turning it into some kind of subversive plan in order to implicate fake clever partners. Both are equally likely.

Area 3. If this was my grand plan, or anyone else's for that matter, where is this in thread? It should be in position 5. I didn't see a swift attack on Cojin besides Zorblag's. Nor did I see anyone try a swift defense. I saw a discussion about what the post could mean, and whither it was a planned mistake.

I suppose you are going to try, and might be currently arguing that my 496 post was trying to be the 'swift defense'? Hardly strong. And quite frankly I am hurt that you would think me dumb enough to try to do the linking even after Zorblag specifically said in thread that it could all be a ruse. I know that I am introducing WIFOM now, but in scum shoes, as soon as the suggested plan was made known, I would have no desire to link myself into it. Most likely I would be at the forefront of the attack against my partner in that case.

Discuss?

[Scien]

[1] Regardless of your meta what you have done in this game be something that supported what the one person we know was scum was doing (lurking) and excused a behavior on his part that would potentially never lead to direct information from him. [...] [2] Troll be familiar with the Monty Haul Paradox and the decision of whether to lynch a lurker on day one no fits it well. [3] The information that be gathered be part of what should be considered but so it the likelihood of the lurker voting in a reasonable manner at various points in the game.

1) We have no idea if he was active lurking or passive lurking. For all we know he was not around. For all we know he could have been a true participant in the future. I'm not saying that we would necessarily get information out of him. But we did have time to do so.

2) I agree it doesn't fit perfectly, I am using it for a point. Lets abstract it a bit. The Monty Haul thing is all about information. Making the switch is done when you have more information, and therefore has a higher likelihood of being correct. Same thing can be applied here.

Without additional evidence, either from actions taken by the lurker, or through the actions of the rest of the town, you have much less information about the motives of the lurker than you do from any other person in town. I understand that each individual is not a vacuum, and this is a much more nebulous game, but I believe the Monty Haul observation about information still plays a part here. Decisions made with more information matter more than ones with almost no information. Hince my views. My views were expressed before Cojin was cheif lurker. My views are still being expressed. I have expressed the same before now in past games. My view is consistent, and I suggest to you that is is mere coincidence that in this case my view appears to have been helping a scum.

3) Uh, I'm not sure I fully understand this through your flavor. Are you saying that an additional concern is what the lurker might do if they are scum, and are actively lurking? That seems like a bit of fear mongering. Minus all information, there is a higher likelihood they are just townies not playing the game. There is a small chance they are scum not playing the game. There is indeed a chance that they are scum actively lurking and waiting for a chance. All of that is true. But to pick one of the least likely cases, and to base an entire lynch on 'OMG they might do this when we least expect it' is kind of weak without other evidence.

The misrepresentations mostly be centered on the idea that Troll was trying to stop you from questioning Sajin. You made an argument about him that was based on what Troll felt was a false analogy of the situation. Troll briefly pointed out that was the case and you disagreed. The discussion we had continued from there. At no point did Troll try to stop you from asking that question or any other questions of Sajin. Troll was objecting to a particularly weak and misleading question which you only explicitly said was a misrepresentation after Troll had called you on it.

No indeed you did not stop me from asking the questions. But you were giving out the easy out for the entire engagement. After our side discussion, all Sajin would have to do is parrot your concerns rather than come up with them himself. I still am arguing that he could have come up with those points all on his own if he is town, and it would be slightly harder for him to do so if he is scum.

Allowing him to do so would have been beneficial. As well as waiting to see if I actually tried to push my weak case to full fledged wagon or vote. It never got that far and that information was removed from the town. Your voiced concerns were premature.

I'm not really misrepresenting you here. Your concerns, while valid, did limit what I was trying to do and did 'prevent questioning' in a way. They also limited what you could have gained on either side of the isle if you are sitting in pro-town shoes.

This be a fine example of what Troll be calling misrepresentation of Troll:

See this is interesting. You are claiming that you believe Sajin town, and so I should not be examining him, based on the fact that he might be chosen and it is risky for the town for me to look at him.

That quote you are using was in response to this paragraph:

Beyond that particular point, have you been following Troll's conversation with Sajin? Troll no particularly expects him to give answers that will be that useful based on what him has been doing with Troll. If you be using a point which Troll no thinks has merit to attack him then Troll has no trouble at all pointing out the flaws in it

as Troll thinks him be likely to be town, him might be a chosen

and him be unlikely to be able to do so adequately himself. If it weren't for the possibility of him being the chosen Troll would probably just let Scien do as him likes here but Troll wants to make sure that Scien has thought through the reasons him gives for suspecting Sajin in this game because of that dynamic.

I don't think that that quote is a misrepresentation at all. You believed the person town, and understand that if that is the case he also might be chosen.

I think your grief is over what I am saying is 'examining' and what you say is 'examining'. I was asking him questions. They were skewed, yes, but I was not using them in a full fledged case. I was attempting to see how he would either catch the skew, or logic around it.

You felt the need to come in and remove the 'skew'. I know that this might not have been vindictive. However I argue that you were jumping the gun and interfering with my look at him.

You basically interfered with the line of questioning because you thought him town, and possibly chosen. Not a misrep at all.

Troll never said it was cut and dry. Troll was making statements about likelihoods.

Oh? That's fairly odd. Me questioning about it, and disagreeing with your conclusion was enough for it to hurt me in your eyes:

The fact that him took as much issue as him did with Troll's statement that him was unlikely to be the chosen (along with Troll) hurts him in Troll's eyes as well.

That seems like you definitely think there is a correct choice there and disagreeing in this case is scummy. Sounds pretty cut and dry to me.

Troll actually no intended to say that the other scum would be the one who would have that reaction. That be why Troll said people.

Sorry that's kind of an artifact from me addressing both people that are voting me concerns in the same post.

Yes, Troll be pretty sure that it did have to be an intentional mistake on Cojin's part. Troll no buys that him just forgot how many people the scum got to exclude from being chosen. That him gave the calculations him did shows that him no simply said the wrong number by accident which could have been an unintentional slip.

I was unsure what his earlier calculations were to arrive at his answers. Thatch why I asked him a question at the end about it. Since I was unsure, I am still unsure how his numbers prove he knew that they had exactly one veto in early game. His range seems like it could have been created with any from an array of possible lines of thoughts in my mind.

If you agree on this point here then why bring up your number 1 at all for this? Also, it would seem that you be putting Nikanor in the category of those who would be less likely to come up with a plan like that. Does that be the case?

Because the flip side also works. Just having clever people present is no guarantee that this specific plan was concocted. As for Nikanor, I don't know him well enough. He might be able to pull off either side of what I am arguing. Ya I guess I would have to include him just due to my ignorance of him.

For the last paragraph Troll does expect that if you be town you would find Troll's latest actions somewhat alarming. You be slightly wrong about the last point but Troll easily be the one who has done the most attacking of you and pushing against what you be attempting.

Again this is probably an artifact of generalizing the vote reasons on me. Maybe this should be directed towards PapaZ. He has been less vocal though.

Troll be a bit unclear about what you have in mind for you sequence of events. Do 1 through 3 be things that happened before Cojin made his mistake or does 1 be the mistake? 4 seems to indicate the former but Troll no be quite sure what you have in mind for 2 and 3 especially if that be the case.

Step 4 is where the mistake was pulled... since that's what it says :D.
That means that everything before is the invisible area of what the scum might have thought of.

What I mean by it? Between you and PapaZ, thats exactly what is suggested the scum did. They came up with a desperate plan, involving a fake 'mistake' that might be construed as a pro-town mistake. Then (this might be all PapaZ), were going to take advantage of that mistake by either busing, or budding. I'm not sure it happened, it might have. But both of you believe 2, and PapaZ believes 3 it seems.

I guess it was more grief about the missing step 5, which would of had to exist, or have the opposite happen in face of your 'it's a trap!' conclusion about the 'mistake'. If PapaZ believes that the scum planned to take advantage of it where did they do so?

This be much more of an appeal to emotion than Troll would expect from Scien.

Think less appeal to emotion and more bad joke. In all honesty I don't care what you guys think about my intellect. I do think that if PapaZ thinks that I actually pulled 2 and 3 in my order of events I would have been exceptionally dumb to go ahead with my plan after you mentioned that there might indeed be a plan.

I was kind of using it as a point.

[Scien]

I could post a while on that. But it isn't going to serve me any good I don't think.

At least we lynched a lurker at the very end of a day. Gave us plenty of time to get information from the real players in this game. That's the important thing. Getting rid of inactives was not the main benefit, just the perk.

Trying to get rid of them earlier than deadline would be a mistake I argue.

---

When/if you guys end up lynching me and find me town. What will you do? Go back to lurker hunting? Or chase suspects? Where is the magic line where it becomes more beneficial to engage real players rather than get rid of people for the chance they might be active lurking?

[Scien]

We have a major disagreement over what is considered discussion, and what is considered an attack. I have attacked no one, because I have not felt confidently enough about anyone to start pushing a case on.

The odds that him was constructing at the end were done in a way that had to use what he knew were false numbers so his mistake must have been intentional.

Wut? I honestly don't understand this. He created odds at the end. What are you saying he did there that proved something of his alignment.

Before we continue with this Troll would like to consider taking a time out. There do be issues that get sorted in this sort of exchange and Troll fully accepts that Scien has every right to defend against the points that Troll be using as reasons to vote for him. Troll also clearly feels the need to address issues when Troll thinks them no have been presented correctly. On the other hand, Troll be fairly sure that these posts we be making now be exactly the sort that others no will be reading. Unless Scien thinks that him will convince Troll of things at this point Troll no be sure that him be doing much in the way of convincing others.

Sorry. I hate to be a bastard. But I am going to continue. I am not going to go down quietly, and even if there are issues with my play, all my play was developed with pro town motives, if not ends. I don't fault you for telling me to shut up... and I haven't been making it easy with my gigantic posts... however I am not going to die here.

Besides... I owe it to the town to stay alive for either of our win conditions.

[Scien]

Troll no thinks that there be much indication that lurker hunting be all this town be capable of. Does Scien think this is all that happened yesterday? Was there no engagement of real players? Lynching lurkers no means ignoring the rest of the players in the game.

No. You are right. The town did look at others for a good part of the day. I believe there was a lot of necessary noise to try and 'lynch the lurker' towards the end. Partially due to be arguing against it. But the town did do a semi-decent job of talking to everyone through the early part of the day.

[Scien]

It no be a mistake him would have accidentally made as scum as him knew him had just one veto as him would have been part of the process for making it.

I think you underestimate the power of mistakes. People of both alignments make them. It is very possible that he had very little role in choosing the veto. He could have made a mistake even if he did chose the veto personally. I'll give you that it would be a weird mistake to make. But I've seen people make stranger mistakes before, even things that they should have had first hand knowledge with.

Troll thinks that waiting to hear from others might be in his best interest before pushing on but it be your call to make.

No offense. And completely separate from any other of our conversation, but this strikes me a bit odd. You are going to suggest my best interest? I am your chief suspect. Why would you not want me to dig myself a hole, if I truly am scum? Why is it beneficial to you to help me out?

[Scien]

Troll just thinks that this one be unlikely enough to make as scum that Troll be willing to rule it out.

Heh. Ya probably.

Why would Troll want Scien to dig himself into a hole given that?

Eh, I guess I can see that. Others would play it differently. I know of at least one guy who would be trying to get me as hot as possible right now for possible scum slips. Different strokes I suppose.

[Scien]

Who is scum Scien? Your playing very defensive here.

Well no kidding. I was at L-2 within an hour of the thread opening. Being defensive seems like a good strategy at that point.

I have a strong interest in PapaZ at the moment, due to his position in the current him vs me affair. But am kind of waiting for him to comment on all the words above.
I find Hohum's 'giving up on you guys' strange, and would like to examine him, but I am not ready for a flame war again yet.
Nikanor? Eh, I'll wait to see what he says before I say anything. In any case I don't have much on him.
I still want to formulate some questions to you...
MiteyMouse always plays like this apparently, and I have little read of her. I don't have questions for her yet though.

So I guess, my main suspicions at the current time would be PapaZ, or Hohum.

But I am suspicious of more than that. I'll get questions out when I get a tick.

In the meantime, would you mind answering this from the above wall-o-spam?

I would also hold that scien and nikanor are both unlikely chosen. Miteymouse, if not scum, is likely chosen.

Why on all of the above?

[Scien]

Perhaps not. Maybe I am looking too much at the people pursuing my case. You are right. He was fairly focused on both Mitey and Cojin pretty much all day. I do find it unlikely that he would have felt the need to lump his partner in there when he started the pursuit.

---

Here is unfiltered honesty that might get me in trouble. Even though I have been giving a bunch of grief to the whole 'mistake' set up logic, I buy it as well. I have been trying to find holes in it, because it is currently being used against me I believe. But when it comes right down to it I believe what you guys are saying about someone concocting a 'mistake' to get the scum out of trouble.

Not everyone in the current game is likely to do this for one reason or another:

1) I am ignoring Mitey. She seems to be kind of a pacifist and I don't know if she could have pulled it off. (I know this sounds like a crappy reason. But knowing what I know of her, I just don't see her being that subversive. No offense intended.)

2) While I still would like to look at PapaZ. You are right, I agree that it seems unlikely someone would be as strong against their partner, even if they already had thought of the 'mistake' plan. Especially when the plan would not even be needed when pressure was first applied on the partner in that case.

3) You. EASILY, would be capable of pulling something like that off. But if you did, it would be odd of you to out your own plan. Completely busing a partner after you gave him a decent setup.

4) I am Town... you don't know that and I look horrible apparently. Either I save myself, or you lynch me and find out I actually am on your side.

But in either case that leaves us with: Hohum, Sajin, Nikanor.

5) Hohum, meh. His personality is his personality. He tunneled. But besides that kinda disappeared. Really if you look at it he only has a bit more play than Mitey in my opinion. I can't rule him out, but I haven't been looking at his play enough besides early game to talk to him enough.

6) I don't know enough about Sajin to know if he is sneaky enough to pull a plan like this off. I tried to talk to him a bit, but apparently tripped over myself and others and got side tracked. I can't rule him out, and I plan to go find more stuff to talk about.

7) I know nothing about Nikanor. He

seems

like he might be sneaky... and could have come up with this. I don't know. He is another one that I haven't talked too much but plan to. I can't rule him out.

---

Basically I need to reread. I know you guys have questions for me, and I will answer them. But in reality, the above is kind of where I sit until reread.

[Scien]

I have general questions to the town while I am rereading.

Sajin made a mistake in early game as well. It was tossed around what the mistake meant towards his alignment.

Do you think that mistake and the possibly intentional scum mistake have any connection? Do you think that the earlier mistake was pulled in the same manner as this one? Do you think that somehow the earlier mistake connects Sajin in on the more recent scum ploy?

I'm not suggesting I think one way or the other. Just want to hear other people's thoughts, and today has been quiet so far.

[Scien]

1) How do you know that Zorblag would not know this?
2)How do you know that you and he are on "the same side"?

1) I don't.
2) I don't.
As I tried to explain a bit in a previous post, I do buy the idea that the Cojin mistake was concocted. If we assume it was for the moment, the first person that made mention of the idea that it was probably a scum trick was Zorblag.

Let's take the game state at the time and run it through a bit of sanity checking. End of day 1, very close to deadline. Cojin and Mitey are under a fair bit of pressure. Scum come up with the idea to have Cojin make a mistake that would appear to be a pro-town mistake. Why would a Zorblag partner immediately point out the mistake for a trap, then finish off the day by removing the partner? To make himself look more townie? Possibly, but I find it unlikely.

It would have been a stronger play I believe to capitalize on the mistake to push the lynch your way. Now I can be wrong here, maybe Zorblag did contrive it all to make himself look pro-town. However I think that that was unnecessary, and a bit unlikely unlikely.

So that means that right now I am kinda holding him to be town, which means that he is on my side, and he doesn't know it.

1)I have a meta for voting people for fence sitting posts and that is a fence sitting post if I ever saw one. If your going to ask peoples opinions about something have one of your own. To not be doing so is keeping your options open and keeping your options open is scummy.

2) But about the post-I was trying to break the game in the towns favor. So if you truly believe I made the mistake then I should be considered town.

If I was lying about the mistake, fine. But since I was called out on the mistake why would I tell my supposed scum partner to do the same thing to get put under scrutiny? What advantage did I seek to gain when I made the mistake intentionally?


So which one are you saying I did?

1) Heh, ok. I never suggested that I didn't have an opinion. I said that my asking was not pointing to me thinking one way or the other. I was withholding it to see what other people said without me influencing them. But whatever, me playing mind games never works out well, so I might as well share it with you since you are all defensive.

[1] Do you think that mistake and the possibly intentional scum mistake have any connection? [2] Do you think that the earlier mistake was pulled in the same manner as this one? [3] Do you think that somehow the earlier mistake connects Sajin in on the more recent scum ploy?

1) I think the mistake pulled at end of day could very well be related to the mistake you made at start of day. However that connection doesn't necessarily mean that you personally are involved. What I mean by this is that is that the mistake had the same kind of implications there as the end of day Cojin mistake. The mistake eventually could have been seen in a pro-town light. Does that mean the scum saw this and tried to mimic? Does it mean that you are scum, and mimicked it at end of day? Does it mean that the initial mistake was also planned? I don't know the answers to any of them. If you want my opinion there as well, I doubt your mistake was planned. But that doesn't answer if you are scum or not.

2) That kind of depends on some factors. But I already said that I thought it was kind of unlikely that you made the mistake intentionally. BTW, if the chosen did know that they were chosen, would you have broken the game? What would have played out if that was the case?

3) I doubt you were lying about your mistake. However in the process of getting called out, a good majority of the town looked at your perceived motives and concluded that they were most likely townish. That's not a bad outcome for a mistake. Looking at Cojin's mistake, a similar thing was planned to happen. The town was supposed to look at it and say, 'Hmm a scum could not make that mistake, so this dude must not be scum'. Even if your mistake was a true mistake, witnessing the towns reaction to it might have prompted the idea for the second, either from yours or others.

I still would like to hear other people's take my questions.

[Scien]

1- Can you point out what 2nd mistake your refering to?

2- Yes I would of broken the game. Did you read my first post with my original assumptions? (which its odd to say you have not as I remember you implying you thought the same) If the chosen knew who they were and claimed, scum could not both claim chosen or neither claim chosen as either of those options was auto town win. And then since scum must exist in either group (claimed chosen and not claimed chosen) it would of created clears as soon as one scum went down. Odds would of been strongly favoring town (as in 1/3 chance for auto win and a ~60 percent chance to win overall not even factoring in reads)

3- How would this make me scum then? Both town and scum would have motivation to mimic this way if it thought it would show them town and in no way would that be indicative of my own alignment. So I am puzzled why you would bring this point up except to mudsling.

1) I am being general in game sense... I say first mistake, your asking for a claim. I say second mistake, Cojin 'not knowing'. I am not trying to imply you made both mistakes.
2) My question was trying to ask if it was automatic game win or the odds that you brought up above. Hence Troll's observation. You talked odds at game begin as well, I was just wondering if you were holding back the total win condition for some reason.
3) Hence why I said "you or others" could capitalize on it. Check the quote. I never said you were the necessarily the scum in this situation. I brought up the point because you faulted me for not answering my own questions immediately, and said that my waiting for others was your definition of fence sitting. 3 is an answer to my 3rd question. I never said that my opinion was a sure fire on either side, I said I wanted to hear what others thought.

[Scien]

@Scien- And my point still stands. You do not like me being considered town by some others. Therefore your trying to mudsling. Say it straight if your going to say it.

I'm confused. I was asking for opinions. Where am I mudslinging again?

[Scien]

[1] It could have been a Scum ploy to make Cojin look better in the eyes of Town but, it would have been terribly risky and I guess, I have a hard time thinking that the Scum would take such a risk that close to deadline. It would have taken a really ballsy Scum to do that. I'm not saying that it is not possible but, most of the players that I have experience with here would have really had to stretch to pull it off.

2) I'm not sure that if Sajin was the other Scum here, he would really want his partner to do the same thing as him earlier in the game. It would make them look too aligned.

1) So what do you think about the action of someone suggesting it was part of some plan, then ending up hitting scum using that as strong supporting evidence. Do you think the person saying it was a plan is suspicious?

2) Eh, maybe. However if we didn't lynch Cojin, we would not have known that he was scum. The plan was made before the lynch. Does that change your answer? Or do you believe that the risk would have been too much for any scum to take?

[Scien]

Again though, how do you know that the plan was made before the lynch or that there was a plan at all?

If there was a plan it was necessarily made before the lynch. Because the plan would have included the mistake. And the mistake happened before the lynch.

I'm not 100% positive there was a plan, but I do think that it is fairly likely. Mainly because of a few facts. Cojin's percentages changed at endgame, and he was taking the time to figure vetoes into those percentages. Cojin was scum, and should have had intimate knowledge of scum pre-game actions. That mistake could have easily been read as a pro-town mistake to make.

Basically breaking it down, he should have known easily how many vetoes he had used, and even if it was out of his hands, he was taking the time to formulate a defensive post with math, and it should have jogged his memory. He most likely knew, and just said the wrong thing. Meaning he did it on purpose, meaning there was a plan.

Now it could have just been Cojin not being careful, and making an unintentional mistake true. However the fact that the mistake could have been so easily read as town makes me suspicious, especially with what we know now.

[Scien]

Heh. Quiet game is quiet. Did I do that?

[Scien]

You said a few pages back that I could see how my behavior is scummy. What is your opinion on that? Do you think I should be lynched for my play yesterday?

What is your current opinion of sajin?

I think you're talking about this?

I find Hohum's 'giving up on you guys' strange, and would like to examine him, but I am not ready for a flame war again yet.
[...] So I guess, my main suspicions at the current time would be PapaZ, or Hohum.

You play from yesterday... early game we fought about play style. But play style differences don't point towards scumminess or towniness in the long run I suppose. I guess I just have a tenancy to explode when I talk to you.

You tunneled on Sajin for most the day. I don't necessarily know what to think about that yet. I can see an argument on each side for if it is more scummy or townie. But I want to do my reread before I ask you questions over it.

Another curious thing was the absence towards the middle of day yesterday till now. Its something else I would like to examine... but asking about absence is always hard. I could see this sa trying to stay out of things a bit when Cojin was getting wagoned, but I have no evidence to suggest that that was truly going on. I'll try and formulate questions in a bit to see if I am wrong in my thoughts.

As for your Sajin question, Sajin is kind of in the same boat as you at the moment. I will have questions for him, and since I am currently buying into this 'concocted Cojin mistake plan' thing he is in the player list that I would like to look harder at, same as you and Nik. But I haven't had a good chance to do a full reread yet, and am pretty much just answering questions at the moment. I'll have better questions for you when I do reread.

---

While I find time for the reread I would like to ask you some side questions.

You are a big fan of bandwagoning for pressure and information. I believe that you mentioned that this was a big issue the town had yesterday was that they tore yours down. However towards the end of the day, there seemed to me to be a bandwagon on both Mitey and Cojin. Would you agree that those were bandwagons? If so, is there anything that you noticed while those bandwagons were going on? Either about the subject of the bandwagon or the participants, but in Cojin's case probably just the participants unless you think he somehow nodded to his partner.

You know how to use the tool better than me, and so I just would like your opinion.

[Scien]

Waffling?

I am waiting for me to get a sec for a thorough reread for better questions to people, sorry been kind of busy at work.

I would like to hear what Hohum had to say about my last few questions as well. I know he acknowledged them, but I don't think he answered them yet.

[Scien]

Heh, glad I could knock myself down a few notches, might aid me in future games to look less interesting.

If you want to discuss, lets discuss. I have no problem with that. I got all panicy early day today, because I felt extraordinarily pressured. However, that's not why you are still comfortable with my lynch from your own mouth. You're words were something like, "I still want to lynch Scien for waffling late yesterday."

I believe that I tried to address the concerns you had in post 528. Of course there you used different terminology. I believe there you said it was "quiet defense", and "delay". First off, is that synonymous with waffling? Secondly, was my explanations in 528 not enough? If so, why have you waited until now to restart the discussion? I have not been away, and I don't think you have either. If you are truly interested in lynching me, why did you not start the discussion up again while the town pittled away roughly a week between when Zorblag gave up on talking to me and now?

I have no grief continuing the discussion, but I would like to hear your answers to the above, as well as any of your concerns you still have.

[Scien]

Hmm... I suppose that I have totally missed what your post before last was implying.

Meh.

[Scien]

I am not sure if I am chosen.

However, I will claim that I am town, and that drives my motives.

In the long run, it matters not if I am chosen or not, I know that I am town. Lynching me is bad for that fact alone, and I will fight for my life because of it.

Because I know that I am town, I know that I have a chance at being chosen, even without metagaming it. So that also gives me extra reason to fight against being lynched.

---

Are you asking me to metagame it? You probably are... I have played with the following before this game: Cojin, Hohum, MiteyMouse, PapaZ, Zorblag. That's a majority of the players here. However I highly doubt that some of these would veto me. Cojin, Hohum, or Zorblag would probably not veto me.

So besides all the WIFOM. I have no idea if I am chosen. I don't even have a feeling if I am or not. However, I do know that I am town. And I need to fight for the town just solely for that reason, the chosen thing matters not. I will fight to live for the reason that I am town, and with the chance that I might be chosen.

[Scien]

Not sure what that gains... but meh, it doesn't hurt either.

PapaZ or Zorblag would have been my arguments for the veto. Easily.

[Scien]

Scien, defending yourself overly just because you know you be town be suboptimal play in this game. Unless you be chosen (you think you might be and it be possible; Troll thinks you probably no be) then your lynch can actually help the town win in some situations. For what it matters, you also no have a good read on Troll's take on your play. Troll would have excluded one of Papa Zito, qwints and Scien were Troll scum. Troll no be sure it would have matter too much which of the three.

No I understand why you are telling me that. I'm just not sure I buy the suggestion that I'm probably not chosen. In my mind, I still have the same chance as I did at game start. I know you made some arguments about why I was unlikely... and we can talk about them again. But s it stands currently, I have no reason to think I might not be chosen... and I have double the reason to fight... just as I said.

If I thought I didn't have that chance, and it was getting us closer to the alternate win, I easily understand why I should lay down for us. I just don't think we are there yet.

[Scien]

Hmm.

Papa Z, why do you think that "of course they'd kill Sajin".

Zorblag, do you still think that myself and you are the least likely to be chosen? If so, should we be talking about that win condition more seriously now?

Nik. I have the least read on you, and have no history to help out either. What is your current view of the game, taking into account last night and late yesterday.

MiteyMouse... meh. Getting information out of you is usually difficult. Can I ask you the same question, what is your current view of the game including last nights and late yesterday's information.

---

As for me... if I am still going to subscribe to that 'someone planned it for Cojin' thing, my last remaining suspect is Nik. This is scarey, because it could have been setup this way.

Of course now that it is down to a single suspect on my list, that means that I am starting to second guess my conclusion that it had to be either Nik, Sajin, or PapaZ.

[Scien]

That clearly should be hohum rather than Papa Zito on your list.

Doh. Yes. That is what I meant. The logic that follows also suggest that that is what I was thinking when I wrote that. I don't know why I have a hard time with those two... but this isn't the only time I've made the mistake of calling PapaZ Hohum and vice versa.

Papa Zito has voted for every single dead vanilla townie we have thus far

As well as you and Mitey. I'll let you think about it, as you said you wanted to, but I'm curious what kind of conclusion you are going to draw from that?

[Scien]

Logic that preceded... sorry.

Given that I was saying that only one remained on that list... that means the other two would of had to have been removed. That would be Sajin and Hohum.

[Scien]

Hah... I am full of fail today.

There be a couple things that Scien could mean there but neither seem to be true. Papa Zito no has voted for Troll or MiteyMouse Troll no thinks. Further, Troll no voted for qwints ever (did Trol?) and MiteyMouse no voted for either qwints or Sajin Troll no thinks.

I meant, you said that PapaZ has voted for every single dead townie. I then based the rest of what I said on both town lynches, which doesn't even make sense since our first lynch was on a scum. (Both troll and Mitey were on both town lynches)

So I guess I amend what I said to, Mitey and PapaZ, and Zorblag were on both lynches. But that tells little... and wasn't what I thought I saw when I started running my mouth anyway.

So... long story short... I fail. Again.

[Scien]

And by town lynches I mean: kills conducted during the day, not killing of townies...

...sigh...

[Scien]

Scien and Mitey, your opinions on Nikanor plz.

Meh. Given him a skim reread in isolation, and like before, I don't have much of a read.

On the reread I did see this spread out over the first two days:

A thing to note about lurker-Cojin: He wasn't like this at all in the last game I was in with him. He posted quite a bit more than this, which may have contributed to his lynch as scum. Maybe he's trying something different this game? /WIFOM

A note about lurkers in general, however hypocritical it may be: In a game where scum can day-talk, there is less incentive for scum to post in-thread, since they can just spend the day talking to their partner instead. The biggest offender of this has been Cojin, who only posts when prompted.

At the moment, I feel that qwints has diminished in scumminess enough to warrant an unvote.
Cojin, however, has done nothing to assuage my suspicions against him. In fact, his lurking has only served to inflame my scumsensors.

I didn't think the Cojin case was very good. Correct me if I'm wrong, but the case against him was basically that he was lurking. I have a history of lurking as both scum and town, so I don't really consider it much of a tell either way. Which brings me to your next point:

Him got prodded once during day one and Troll called for another prod later. Him responded immediately which be evidence that him was following the thread to some degree even though him no was posting. If anyone in this game be active lurking it be Nikanor or hohum but hohum has a more coherent story for his reasons.

Yes, I was actively lurking, but I have a history for active lurking as town. I can provide links to specific posts that support this if you desire.

I don't think we have talked about this yet. That is a backtrack I believe. But I don't understand the motives why it was posted in the first place. The second quote is in day 2, after Cojin flipped scum. Why talk about how strong the case was? Did it matter? We hit scum... what was the motive for telling everyone it was for bad reasoning? I would actually like an answer for that question from Nik.

---

Minus all that I was kind of waiting to see what his response to the current wagon would be. My view of him is still pretty much where it was before. If there was a mistake plan, it would have been cooked up by Hohum, Nik, or Sajin. Nik is the only one left, but since I have a neutralish read, I really just want to hear more from him before I would cast a vote.

[Scien]

I actually also have a question for you PapaZ.

You made mention before that how uninvolved I have been in this game is a scummy tell. Do you believe this? If so, why? I hate to be the one bringing it up, since I am not a total observer. But I can assure you that I don't really care how you see me, I'm more curious as to the reasons behind your thoughts. I'll explain why I ask after you answer, and you'll just have to believe me for a moment that I am not polling you.

[Scien]

Scien...I think that both Zorblag and Papa could have come up with the "mistake" thing as well. I think that they are both cunning enough for it...not saying that they did it but, they are both smart cookies.

Truth.

But, if Zorblag did it, he outed his own plan to the town immediately and drove the mob towards his partner for the lynch. It would have been just as easy to suggest to the town that the mistake proved towniness, and pushed it toward the other wagon, you.

PapaZ was hardcore against Cojin all day one. He didn't flinch after the mistake, and stayed on him till the lynch. If it was PapaZ's plan, I think he would have at least switched play to appear like he was considering using the mistake as a town tell, and would probably try and drive the wagon towards you. His unflinching pursuit of Cojin in this case seems to argue against him being scum.

[Scien]

I was extrapolating from this:

Three interesting things to note from this. One, Sajin ended both days on Nikanor. Two, Scien ended both days not voting. Three, Nikanor was off the scum wagon Day 1 but on the townie wagon Day 2. I think our scum lies in one of these two; I'm leaning Nikanor. (this would also make Mitey extremely likely Chosen) brb, iso.

You are saying that the scum lies within Scien and Nik. The reason I am on there is because I ended both days not voting.

I took that to mean that you thought I was uninvolved, and that was scummy. If I'm wrong please correct me.

[Scien]

Fair.

And I would even almost say logical.

However, do you think that what you are observing from my play would be a viable tactic from a scum standpoint?

Do you think that avoiding wagons points to scumminess, and how?

[Scien]

Also, close to fair.

However, we had a very close MiteyMouse lynch in day 1...

Do you think that you would see me staying one hundred percent neutral, waffling, avioding, etc as opposed to trying to drive towards Mitey? Why do you think it would be more benefital from a Scien scum standpoint to be completely out of the fight, rather than trying to push towards a lynch on another? Which seems more scummy to you, pushing towards a town/chosen or not pushing towards anyone?

Also related but on a different line, you say that "everyone is neutral, I have no good reads on anyone", is a scum stance. Why, and with what stipulations?

[Scien]

Because the rules change in Chosen. If I was scum, I MUST hit a chosen in order to win. Scum sitting back and letting the town lynch away is more likely to bring a scum loss than a scum win.

Because if the town continue to hit normal townies (which is more likely than chosen for most the game), and scum can only kill normal townies, no chosen get lynched. Even if you think that it would be advantageous to sit back and try to push the town towards the end of the game, at that stage the sudden explosion in aggressiveness would tip the town off and out the scum.

Yes that's more theory. But I think that it is odd that you would throw scumminess towards neutral, waffling, avoiding in this specific game. And by odd, I would say illogical. Unless you expect me to eventually push, I don't see how you can see my play as scummy. Since I don't see, I have to question you, and your motives for saying that it does.

---

Driving towards someone isn't your style. I don't ever see you driving wagons. Besides, the Mitey wagon never had steam. Troll refused multiple times to push the wagon along and Cojin/Nikanor were more-or-less absent.

Weren't you in Newbie 762?

In this current game Mitey was also absent. But her wagon had steam. It would have been just as easy to hit her for lurking as it was to hit Cojin for lurking.

Right close to end of day even:

hohum (1) <-~ Sajin
Sajin (1) <-~ hohum
MiteyMouse (3) <-~ Zorblag, Nikanor, Cojin
Cojin (3) <-~ Papa Zito, qwints, MiteyMouse

If I was a bit more vocal on Mitey at that point there would have been enough 'steam' for her lynch at that point... she would have been at L-1. I believe I would have won you over as well... near that vote count you awknowledged that you would be for either of them:

We're running out of time, kids.

MiteyMouse (3) <-~ Zorblag, Nikanor, Cojin
Cojin (3) <-~ Papa Zito, qwints, MiteyMouse

We have two viable wagons here. We need to pick one.

You are saying that her wagon had no steam? She was at L-2 with a possible me and you as the finishers. Whats your definition of no steam?

---

2. It's a fairly common scum tactic. Scum prefer to lay low and blend in.
3. Not pushing towards anyone. Town mislynch town all the time; sad but true. I don't have a problem with it though when their reasons for the mislynch are sound. Those that stay on the sidelines or quietly join without expressing strong opinions on the matter, though, are highly suspect.

At [2], I think that tactic doesn't work in chosen. What do you think?
At [3], have I been quietly joining anyone? Mitey's wagon? Hohum's? Anybodies? Was I even stoking the fire at all?

Keeping players in neutral makes it easier for scum to slide onto wagons without causing too many ripples. It's much harder for scum to join a townie mislynch wagon if they've previously identified the wagoned player as town. Beyond that it's just impossible (to me) to play a game and come to the end of a day without having some read on some players.

I think chosen changes that a bit. The scum need to be more aggressive in order to get their day kill. They can not win without it, and with each additional kill, they will be under more pressure. The remaining scum should be feeling the pressure right now.

[Scien]

Incidentally, we should now be past the time when it might matter, so here be what people were not fully taking into account during the discussion about no lynches earlier: any time it actually be a better choice for the town to no lynch the scum can force the town to lynch by not killing for two straight nights. If it was ever clear that no lynching was the correct decision it no would be one that we could choose if we be up against competent scum. Given the site-wide meta opposing no lynch those pushing it would need to spell out the reasons well enough for the scum to see them and use this appropriate counter.

I thought of that. When I was arguing about it before, it was for the benefit of time for the town. Not to force scum action. Even then I already knew that final action rested on the town.

If it ever came down to needing more information, we could use the no-lynch as a way to give us more time to get that information.

[Scien]

Troll no saw awareness that the scum would be best served by no night killing in most situation where the town would be best served by no lynching.

Meh. I didn't really feel like telling the scum how to act. Same reason I said that the remaining scum would be feeling pressure without explaining why. If we hit a vanilla townie here today, they have no night option. Now is his time to push for something, if he was indeed just sitting on the sidelines like is being suggested as a possibility. Besides... it is pretty explicit in the rules that the town has to have the final action... that was a pretty obvious loss condition was even bolded.

I find it odd that you would think so when I espoused his lynch the whole back half of the day.

You find it odd? The cases on them were both similar. Mostly lurking claims, followed by lynch all lurker arguments. Why would the lurker matter? I don't see how me thinking you would switch after the quote I mentioned would be a unreasonable assumption.

No, that's correct. If deadline was imminent and the Cojin wagon wasn't going to happen, I would have switched to Mitey, or whoever the leading opposing wagon happened to be. Fortunately you moved first.

Yep. I thought so. So back to me then. Assuming you think me scum, you think it more likely that I would sit quiet rather than push attention away from a scum partner and towards someone else? Someone that would have been townie, and with just about the same amount of pressure as my supposed Cojin partner?

Hey, you might think me a dirty non-voting waffler, but you really think I would not attempt to at least divert attention from my partner getting hosed in day one? It doesn't make sense that I wouldn't in that position, and you giving it scumminess that I didn't doesn't make sense.

As a quick aside, do you think you pushed for Mitey in day two? After finding her partner? Or had you decided that she wasn't scum after all?

[Scien]

Nik... there are question to you at the top of the page I believe.

[Scien]

@PapaZ
Yes there was more to both cases other than lurking. Both people had lurker cases on them as well though. It would have been an easy link to either win support from the other wagon or to justify a late game vote nearing deadline... it would have just been TOO easy to play that off as scum for me to believe that you think I would rather just sit to the side, and not attempt to save a partner.

Yes I realize that I could have planned the Cojin mistake, and was the one who questioned it openly, as opposed to trusting Zorblag's take right off the bat. I can't really prove to you that I didn't plan. But it is true that I didn't.

Fine... I'll reread you in iso and come back with more questions since you would not like to give me your opinion. I have a feeling that for being confident she was scum in day 1, you were awfully light on her in day 2.

As for where I'm going with this? As I have said before, this bit of logic doesn't make much since to me, and wanted to discuss it with you. It still doesn't make sense to me, but meh. Besides, its giving me information about you, at the same time I'm waiting for Nik. I really am interested in him, and might even be the hammer this time around depending on his current view of the game. We can discuss that if you like.

@Zorblag
The general cases. Others were on her for lurking as well as other reasons.

Also, I understand that the scum can still sit back... but they are feeling more pressure now. If they aren't then they don't know their current position. The fact that their night actions might be pulled away from them will be a wake up call if they don't realize it already.

[Scien]

They aren't attacks... I am just wanting to understand. But meh.

[Scien]

Why are you leaving out the question I'm answering in that quote?

Meh, because on the iso I was doing of you, I missed the context apparently... Sorry about that. You are right, it looks ok since you were expressly asked why you weren't looking at Cojin. So I guess I apologize there.

The whole thing with Papa Zito being the first to vote Cojin being a towntell seems a bit overrated to me. Seeing how much Cojin undervalued himself makes me think he may have told Papa Zito to bus him indescriminately. I also see that Cojin has stopped playing on Mafiascum.net entirely, so he may have told Papa Zito to bus him in a suicide attempt.

Perhaps, but do you think this was likely to happen early in the day? And day 1 for that matter? I agree that this thought has crossed my mind, and indeed his aggressiveness towards Cojin is what was keeping him off my potential players that would have been involved in a Cojin plan.

Also while I am thinking about it... if there was a plan, it doesn't mesh with what you are thinking about PapaZ. If they where intentionally going to sacrifice Cojin, why concoct a plan to save him? What's your thoughts on the Cojin plan? I take it you don't think there was one...

@Scien: You say the last scum should be feeling the pressure to lynch a chosen right now. What do you think of the speed with which my wagon has built? What will you make of it if I flip chosen? What about if I flip townie?

It is suspicious, but the people on it are the people I am pretty much not suspicious to me the way things stand currently.

If you flip chosen, that would change immediately. I don't think the scum have been sitting back this whole game... they might be now... But in anycase, I would start second guessing my thoughts about the plan and PapaZ and Zorblag most likely. Not to say I would change my mind, but rather, reconsider the possibility there was no mistake plan, or that PapaZ's zealotry in the first day might have been a plan...

If you flip vanilla town? I suggest my own lynch tomorrow... more on that below.

---

I have played a horribly sloppy game. Misquoting people on accident, using bad logic in haste, questioning people heavilly and making it look like attacks out of the blue, and general mistakes almost every other post.

I have gotten little to no flack out of it. This strikes me as odd. I should be an easy target if I am chosen, I should have been pressured more. Time and time again, people questioned me and backed off.

I strongly doubt I am chosen at this point.
I'm still trying to keep an open mind, and will react to what people think of this, but those are my thoughts currently.

I don't think that I should be the lynch for today however. I think that tomorrow we will be in almost the same boat as today if I am indeed lynched and non-chosen, and you guys will be faced with the same problem.

On the other hand if I am chosen, I don't think it is worth it to throw out our win condition just for the additional knowledge of who would be willing to be on my wagon today. The fact that I said I would be down with my lynch would dilute knowledge we would gain from it in my opinion. And we shouldn't be using it today due to the less knowledge than we would gain elsewhere.

---

Back to you.

I have said I would hammer you.

My points are exclusionary in nature. I am subscribing to the Cojin mistake plan. I think PapaZ's aggressiveness excludes him from who could have came up with the plan. I think that Zorbag's outting of the plan immediately, keeps him off the suspect list. History with Mitey keeps her off the suspect list. Leaving dead people and you.

What are your thoughts on these points, and why do you believe I am mistaken in my current thought process? I am willing to toss a vote to you soon, but would like more before I do so.

[Scien]

Back to you though Papa, right fast.

You never attacked Mitey in day2. You had her at top of list at dawn, questioned me for a bit right after that, caught the flu, then went hardcore against Hohum.

Before we continue that. Rereading a bit of day one, you pretty much were not strong on her there either. You made a bunch of noise saying that you thought her scum, and I can think of a few reasons for that, but you were never perusing her. You just said you had her 'dead to rights', while trying to look elsewhere for information.

Were you actually confident she was scum in day 1, your first day 2 list supports this? Was your list at the beginning of day 2 due to your thoughts of day 1 minus the end? After you started looking at others, did you forget about her?

[Scien]

For the turkey.

When I say you never attacked Mitey in day 2, I should say you once mentioned that she had a 'scum dripping' post. That's about it. Didn't question her on the post. Didn't question her over day 1 issues. What was I rereading for again Papa? Was there something specific I was supposed to see? I didn't see it.

[Scien]

Sigh... I can already hear you crying about me 'attacking' you again... but something here is not jiving well with me... I'm trying pretty hard to keep my posts soft since I am mainly looking at Nik... but I don't think I will feel comfortable ending the day with this feeling.

2) Heh, what you are saying there makes a bit more of sense. When I was looking at it, I thought your inital list was not including my end-of-day 1 plays. I jumped to this conclusion due to after your reread, coming in say "You know, Scien's end of day 1 looks pretty bad". I thought that was a new thought and hence not on the initial list, rather than just a connector into your previous discussion. Both work, and so your explanation makes sense.

3) Ok. So you asked a single question about Mitey's slip in early day 2. Troll comes back with a 'That seems like a possible slip, and wouldn't serve scum to much anyway', and you back off for a reread. On your reread I look more suspicious (I have no issue with this btw).

Ok. How far down did Mitey move when you subscribed to Zorblag's views on Mitey's slip? Was/is she still suspicious to you? Even Zorblag seemed to think the slip still had some elements of scumminess about it (or so he claimed at the time). Did she move far enough off your suspect list that her later post in the day that was 'dripping with scum' was not enough to look at her again before your Hohum pursuit?

What's your current top 3 scum list?

[Scien]

I should add, that after your reread on step 3, you came back and started investigating the others on your top 3. That's anti-suspicious I suppose, but you did make no mention of your views on Mitey after reread, which might be part of my unease.

Hearing what your thoughts were then and are now might help a bit.

[Scien]

Mitey... current thoughts?

[Scien]

Fine no current scum list... doesn't matter at this point anyway. I just am trying to read your frame of mind. I can do that other ways.

One last barrage of questions for the moment.

Now... here you are heavily involved in a wagon on Nik. Mitey was 3 yesterday after looking at the rest of your top 3. Why Nik over Mitey now? You have a third person threatening hammer of Nik... you claim to be interested in getting info for the town? Why are you not looking at Mitey now, before this threatened hammer is dropped?

[Scien]

Heh... I'm looking for information in case this doesn't work out...

My vote would be teh suck, if it doesn't work out and we missed all this day's chance to talk.

Oh well. I guess I am satisfied for the moment...

---

To Nik. You're on the block. If I don't hear from you within a couple of days, I'm hammering.

[Scien]

Yes please to Zito's question...

1) Papa Zito: If he were Cojin's buddy, I doubt he would come up with such a thing. If he wanted to bus Cojin into oblivion, I can't see any reason for him to make up something like that to make Cojin appear more town. (As I'm writing this, I see that the Cojin suicide theory doesn't work here, either. Cojin wouldn't feign a mistake if he were trying to commit suicide, unless he were Zorblag's partner [see below]).
2) Zorblag: The fact that he almost immediately pointed out the mistake as a fabrication means nothing to me. I would have done the same as scum. I think that if Zorblag is scum, and he made up the mistake plan, he would have some very good reasons for pointing out the mistake immediately. For one, he would gain town brownie points for calling out something that would inevitably be called out, avoiding suspicion for nearly the entire game. Secondly, he would be able to sew confusion among the town by accusing the wafflers (namely Scien and I) of waffling, futher avoiding suspicion and setting up possible future lynches. I believe that as scum, Zorblag had at least a couple reasons to point out Cojin's 'mistake,' so clearing him for that is a bad idea.
3) MiteyMouse: As far as I know, she could have made up the mistake. However, many people seem to be discounting her based on her meta, so I shall do the same.
4) Scien: Your waffling at the end of day one can as easily be confused town as it could be flip-flopping scum. I consider it a nulltell.

1) You have anything specifically that would have you doubt him coming up with something? I agree the bus thing seems odd, and wouldn't work with the plan. What makes you think that a scum player would wish to be sacrificed so early in a new game? I think that would be fairly odd.

2) What you say makes some sense, but in my opinion is fairly unlikely. For it to go down like you are saying you think it might have would have meant that a plan was concocted, presented, outed immediately even though the plan might have worked out saving Cojin, then hoped the town would believe that there was indeed a mistake plan and lynch for the proof. That seems fairly unlikely. What are your thoughts?

I know it seems advantageous for Zorblag to have things go down like that, but we've kind of slipped into WIFOM here, it went from accident, to planned accident, to planned outting of planned accident and hoping for a town lynch to clear you?

3) Playing devils advocate here. Why? If you have no history with her, why completely write her off because of others? You haven't been reading her critically or seriously? Why trust us?

4) You are suggesting that the only grief you might have of me is day 1 end of day actions? And that itself is merely null tell? What about the rest of my play?

I kind of get the feeling that you are either not keeping up, or don't care about many of the players here. Would you say one or both of those are accurate?

[Scien]

Going to answer my last round of questions Nik? You're still my vote.

Is that all you are willing to share of your current views Mitey? Answer this if you would, how would you get more out of the day by sitting back like you have? You've been quiet, and that seems like normal play from you in both alignments, but are you content to just sit and watch the game percolate? If you want more out of the day, why are you just threatening the hammer, and not engaging where you think we should engage?

Oh... pretty much just rewording of Zorblag there... but in a more accusatory way.

[Scien]

Um... no?

Every single one of my questions is directed to

your

thoughts. Not anything about what I believe.

I am asking you to explain to me some of the things that you said about what

you

believe.

Did you read any of the questions? What you are claiming doesn't make sense.

[Scien]

I think I understand what you are saying... but don't understand how it applys.

You say that you don't think PapaZ would plan some hypothetical. I ask what makes you think that...

You say that an action of Zorblags would make sense from scum in some case, I ask you how likely that case is.

Those two I get why you would have the griefs you describe... however I still think that they are worthy of answering, and are now based on what you have said is your take on things, and less about whether the mistake took place.

However these following questions are removed from that entirely:

You are willing to just believe town when they say something about meta? You don't have your own opinions of her from what she has done in this game?

You have a null tell on me, based on waffling but that is it? Rereading for more information? You have no thoughts at the moment about me or others?

---

The final question I asked above also meant nothing in terms of any hypothetical...
"I kind of get the feeling that you are either not keeping up, or don't care about many of the players here. Would you say one or both of those are accurate?"

I would add to that now. I would say, I also get the feeling that tossing out a bunch of hypothetical in defense and then refusing to talk about it on grounds that it was hypothetical is pretty funny.

[Scien]

Sigh this is pointless.

We hit you as scum, we win.

We hit you as vanillia, townie, I think we have our victory in my lynch.

We hit you as Chosen, we have more information and in my mind realize that this mistake plan thing needs some looking at.

As it stands now, I believe the mistake plan scenario, you were the last possible suspect. You have had time to win me over by attacking my assumptions. You have had time to attack others about the assumptions they want me to believe.

You have been under pressure and have remained fairly silent or tossing out stuff that you yourself don't even want to talk about.

Your lynch is the best option I believe. I hope you are not chosen.

Vote: Nikanor

[Scien]

I want to kind of steal an idea from Zorblag with our last Chosen game. He suggested and then really explained it in the after party that getting the Scum might not be as important as keeping the Chosen alive. I mean at this point, the Scum cannot win with the Chosens alive right? So, it may be in our best interest to place a safe, less likely to be Chosen vote as opposed to getting the Scummy.

It doesn't matter if we go for scum or go for the vanilla townie. All that maters is that we accurately hit one of them. Using the best information to get us to one of them is key here. If its easier to find the VT we go for him, if it is easier to find the scum we gof for him.

Let's all post these and see if we can find a common thread.

I have tried to put my thoughts down 5 times now. Its hard.

Here is what I am sure of.

Zorblag is chosen or scum. One or the other. He shouldn't be alive and yet lives. We should not touch him. If he is chosen btw, why oh why did he not get a veto since there is a scum in present company.

PapaZ is probably protown. I don't know if he is chosen or townie but he is probably protown.

Mitey I don't know. I could see arguments for her from all roles.

I am townie or chosen. I'm not sure of which anymore. I have caught flack this game. But not a lot of it... I have played poorly and caught some interest... but nothing really huge except on day 3.

How sure are you guys are that I am scum? If you assumed that I was not scum would you see me as vanilla or chosen? I ask because I am still fighting if I should be the lynch. Someone could vote me, and see if I was hammered... if not I would be confirmed vanilla or scum, and the town could finish me for the win. Risky...

[Scien]

Of course we could do that with anyone... actually we should probably find the person with the highest combined vanilla/scum chance...

[Scien]

I thought it was 2 votes to lynch?

[Scien]

Holy crap it is 3... that changes things.

[Scien]

Unless the vote was a self-vote.

I have a weird question for everyone.

At the time of Sajin's death, would you say that he was likely town or likely scum. What were your beliefs before the NK.

[Scien]

Troll thinks you might have the question you be asking phrased in a way other than you intended.

You'll have to point out where you think I did that after Mitey answers (Papa has already answered in the thread). I'm not seeing it, but then again I authored it so maybe I am reading past it.

[Scien]

No not really. The chosen thing is not what I was after. But I guess your guys' complaints about my wording stand. I meant before that night.

I was asking because that was basically the last real game setup input that the scum would have had behind the scenes input on. From that point on, any manipulation they would of liked to do would have been done in thread.

Basically that NK set up the way the game is currently. I'm trying to see if I can get some idea of scum thoughts off that.

[Scien]

The obvious implication was that the scum used it's night kills to set up the game in a favorable way.

I really don't know what other assumption you are guessing I am making. The fact that you are talking back and forth in code makes me think that you think it a nefarious assumption... and I just don't see it.

I did see myself use the word 'they' instead of it... but that's an artifact of trying to stay gender neutral with the remaining scum.

I'm not going to try and bother decrypting the code to guess what you guys might have going through your heads. I'll know soon enough anyway.

[Scien]

Ah...

No.

I'm not saying that the game couldn't have played out differently, I am saying I was looking at the scums strategy.

Look at it this way. There is pros/cons in either the scum hitting the most pro-town looking vanilla townies. There is pros/cons in the scum hitting the scummiest looking vanilla townies. But they would have been following a constant theme.

Each nights actions, as the night would come, would have most likely been hitting the most pro-town looking guys, or the most scummy looking guys. The fact that that nights lynch hit what everyone else here believes to be a pretty pro-town looking guy means they were hitting pro-town looking guys.

This could suggest a set up in trying to leave scummy guys behind (because one might be chosen) or it could just be scum policy as usual and there is no set up.

What it does mean is that the scum were not intentionally leaving strong pro-town players around to make the pool larger to choose from at end game.

I was not trying to suggest that the game setup was 100% concocted from scum plans. Just was trying to think if they were trying to get the game in a state like this.

[Scien]

And just out of happenstance when a chosen was missed on night 3, that means no lynch and we couldn't get that information.

So I looked back at the night kill before.

[Scien]

Meh... it was implied when it was said, and I would tend to agree, but the most likely person here that would ignore win condition to set up a situation like this,

or attempt to do so

would be Ms. Mouse.

[Scien]

For revenges sake... I have no motive for revenge this time around.

On the contrary... in the pregame thread I had drama that was basically "Mafia scum elite" pointing at me and calling me a newb. I should want to do anything in my power to show that I would play the game well. Not that I have done that... but I wouldn't cook this here.

I know... its not something I can prove.

However my post 751 is what I was meaning. You are being played... or you are playing... I was not implying that the scum knew that the 3rd day would play out like it did... I was implying that there is something to be gained from the 2nd night... and everything after that played out in thread.

[Scien]

heh... as crappy a post as always.

Let's try this:

Not that I have done that... but I wouldn't cook this here.

Not that I have been playing a strong game, but I wouldn't let strong players live just because I wanted to beat them.

(And I apologize for the talk of the set up thread... I remember now that most that drama played out in PM... you didn't know who was attacking me for what. We can ignore that)

[Scien]

As I tried to say before its tough to say.

I know that Zorblag is scum or chosen.

I know that I am townie or chosen.

I think that you are pro-town, but don't know if you are chosen or not.

I think that me and Mitey caught the most flak.

I could build lists off that but there would be a multitude. That's one reason I am looking at freakin night 2 looking for tells that the scum could have been giving us.

There are multiple lists going off in my mind...

Because even though I have locked off what I am sure off... the things I am unsure of still multiplies that to multiple lists...

Meh. Does that make sense?

No. I will not commit to a single list... I am not confident enough of what I am unsure of to commit to a list. But I am sure of at least what Zorblag's and my positions are right now.

Would you like me to dump out the lists that I think are likely? I could do that and put a probability with them...

[Scien]

What do be Troll's position right now?

As I have said before... you are scum... or you are chosen. I can't see you being alive at this point as a vanilla townie.

To PapaZ... Give me a bit I'll give you what I think is the most likely list... I want to percolate a bit more on it to think about the possibilities, and how they weigh in on my current game view.

[Scien]

Uh... I think you are scum or chosen....

What makes you think you are not chosen if you indeed see yourself in a pro-town light...

You think my view is inaccurate? How? How are you alive through all these days?

[Scien]

I'm not going to lie, I didn't know about the double vote thing, right from the get go I thought that was a single vote. I know it doesn't help me any, but that is the truth.

Even if I was scum and wanted Zorblag dead it would have been risky to place that vote. It would not have been a hammer.

What is interesting though is that PapaZ did think this was a double vote. He didn't hammer.

If Papa isn't scum then it means nothing. Right?

So this has ruled out a PapaZ scum Zorblag chosen combo (he would have attempted a hammer....) unless PapaZ is lying about his thoughts on double voting.

Or am I missing something?

[Scien]

Sigh...

Scum PapaZ would have so hammered if he honestly bought the 2 vote self vote thing and Zorblag was chosen... I don't think he was lying. That ruled out the PapaZ scum/Zorblag Chosen combination.

PapaZ has since voted setting up the L-1, and Mitey won't cast the final vote.

Zorblag suggesting his own lynch and setting me up for the last vote means he is at least pro-town.

There is nothing about this situation that can suggest that I am getting played. We know the roles now.

I think we win.

Vote: Zorblag

[Scien]

If he pulled that trick... then I have to throw a ZOMG at him.

[Scien]

Heh.

Maybe... but I don't gloat after the final vote is cast... and I definitely wouldn't still pretend to be town.

Mitey would have hammered if she could have and won. I just don't see how anything but PapaZ coming up with a two vote mistake as a plan could hurt us now.

And due to recent experience I have told myself to stop buying into people suggesting that some mistake was planned ;P

[Scien]

Well I guess we'll see heh.

If it was planned then I apologize for not giving credit where credit is due. It was a decent plan. Zorblag outing it right off the bat was... well, awesome in a few different senses of the word.

Seeing the flip scum, I almost couldn't believe it.

[Scien]

Heh... If no one here is lying how could he be chosen?

I guess Mitey could have chosen not to hammer to let the town do it themselves. I would think that would be unlikely.

She seemed pretty quick to the hammer in that last game we played.

[Scien]

I said it was hilarious. Not that it was very sporting.

I would never do it, just because it is designed to rub people the wrong way who are actually involved in the game.

[Scien]

Lol... is it strange that I have watched that Animals video probably 5 times in the last month?

[Scien]

... ok more like 15 times.

[Scien]

Ya... the flavor was pretty cool too. Thanks Incognito.

[Scien]

Meh... I've been playing weak games recently...

In this game as well as a recent one, I lost touch with the game in parts, and had issues that you guys immediately caught.

I guess at least I didn't cause too much problems with my play.

I enjoyed playing with you all, and hope to see you around.

I am looking forward to Mitey's thoughts. She fooled me pretty good heh.

Whats the phrase, "Maybe I should start being afraid of you." Or something like that

[Scien]

@Scien: What made you change your mind about this [...]

Hmm. Well, I can't claim that me saying that was any kind of manipulation on my part in day 3. I honestly did think that I had a good chance at being vanilla right till PapaZ's mistake and eventual vote cleared the game up.

Part of my early day 4 hesitation was due to me mistakenly thinking that it would only take two votes to lynch. I really didn't want to put myself to L-1 without talking to the town about it. (I was typically pretty uncommited during pretty much all this game for some reason.)

After the initial part of the day, I kind of got into defense mode when that assumption that people thought I made came out. right before this time was the first time I started seriously trying to figure who might have been chosen with a given scum.

I guess I can't claim much besides a lack of being here, a lack of being decisive, and a strong win condition presenting itself before I did anything drastic.

Oh and for the record, I'm a "strapping 25" going on 26 next month. Is 26 less strapping?

Heh, that's old! That's like, over a quarter century man.

(I turn 25 on the 26th. Where the heck did summer go?)

[Scien]

Pretty manipulative lady... I didn't think you had it in ya. Hehe.

I'll watch out for you in the future.

[Scien]

So... Cojin saying there were two vetos... was that planned or was that just a Cojin mistake?

[Scien]

Suck ups. lol.

In all honesty, the setup was awesome. I appreciate the work put into conception and evolution of the type, as well as approve of the current layout. I have a feeling that it should be pretty balanced with the rules as they were here.

I don't think I have said in thread yet, but I enjoyed playing with you folks, and hope to/might see you all around in other games.

Thanks for the invite!

Scien