/in-vitational 2 - Chosen, Karaoke - Game over! before 830

[Incognito]

Vote Count #17 of Day 1

Sajin (1) <-~ hohum
MiteyMouse (2) <-~ Nikanor, Cojin
Cojin (4) <-~ Papa Zito, qwints, MiteyMouse, Zorblag
Nikanor (1) <-~ Sajin

Not voting (1) <-~ Scien

With 9 living, 5 will do it.

Friday, August 21st at 9 P.M. EDT.

[Scien]

[Answers some questions]

Meh. Alrighty. Fair enough.

How are you going to get a read on Cojin?

I was making the assumption that once you guys reiterated your questions to him, he would have answered.

Let's play your game and say that he didn't answer ever. And just posted enough to not be replaced. What would I do then? Keep attempting to get him involved or replaced, while having discussion with people actually willing to play the game. It generates more stuff for the town to look at anyway to talk to people who talk, instead of blindly lynching people who are not talking.

This is not sufficeient[sic] reasoning, you have no case

He has no case because you are not answering questions. You are at L-1... are you still going to pretend that everything is fine with your play? Answer the people's questions.

[after a bunch of discussion I really don't understand]

1) If hohum flips town. He will give his vote to the scum every night.

2) If hohum flips scum good ridence.

3) If you lynch me then town/hohum may actually scum hunt instead of tunnel.

4) If you lynch me and I flip chosen- hohum and scien and Nikanor need to be looked at

1) Huh? What do you mean give his vote to scum every night?
2) Fair... but throwing yourself on the chopping block by setting up an either or? I have already said that setting up conditions like that is silly, and scummy.
3) Doubtful. And kind of funny you would suggest this given that you have been saying that he is a hardcore tunneler all along. You honestly think that after he has been playing this way for several games, that one mistake is going to get him to stop? Really?
4) Heh. Look at me all you want.

So either way you lynch from this pairing you eliminate one vote scum would have anyways.

I still don't understand what you mean here.

Troll thinks that both Scien and Troll have very low chances of being chosen.

Meh. You don't think the scum might be reluctant to be the first on a wagon that ends up chosen? Neither of us have had votes. That could just as easily suggest that the scum don't want to call attention by voting us, because then they would be the first building cases on us as well. They would be the most in the spotlight I believe.

I do understand what you are saying though. It could also mean that since there is not a lot of activity around us, it might be suggesting that the scum have no real interest in us.

[WIFOM][Joke] Although, you are the most famous here. You obviously got the scum veto. [/joke][/WIFOM]

[Zorblag]

Troll thinks that both Scien and Troll have very low chances of being chosen.

Meh. You don't think the scum might be reluctant to be the first on a wagon that ends up chosen? Neither of us have had votes. That could just as easily suggest that the scum don't want to call attention by voting us, because then they would be the first building cases on us as well. They would be the most in the spotlight I believe.

I do understand what you are saying though. It could also mean that since there is not a lot of activity around us, it might be suggesting that the scum have no real interest in us.

Actually it goes beyond the votes. Both of us have gotten very little even in the neighborhood of attacks. As Troll said Troll has gone a bit out of the way to provoke this game and your play has been pretty open to attacks with how close you held your cards to your chest at the start. hohum be the notable exception but him has gone after most everyone. The scum might be playing Troll's reads here but that always be a risk.

[WIFOM][Joke] Although, you are the most famous here. You obviously got the scum veto. [/joke][/WIFOM]

Ah, an oldie but a goodie. And not particularly a joke.

Troll was interested to see who would question Troll's 1/6 chances of being a chosen. The easy answers to give be 2/7; if the scum excluded someone at random then the town would each have a 2/7 chance. Some gave themself a 1/3 chance; this assumes that them no were the one that was excluded and be a reasonable answer as well.

Troll be arrogant and assumed that Troll had about a 1/2 chance of being picked to be excluded given the reputation Troll has with the others that be in the game.

If Troll has a 1/2 chance of being excluded and then a 2/6 chance of being a chosen if Troll no was excluded that gives Troll about a 1/6 chance of being a chosen.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Papa Zito]

Cojin, scumlist please.

[Scien]

Actually it goes beyond the votes. Both of us have gotten very little even in the neighborhood of attacks. As Troll said Troll has gone a bit out of the way to provoke this game and your play has been pretty open to attacks with how close you held your cards to your chest at the start.

My point about the assumption you are making about what the lack of attacks and votes on us means still stands.

Cojin, scumlist please.

Yes please.

[Zorblag]

Actually it goes beyond the votes. Both of us have gotten very little even in the neighborhood of attacks. As Troll said Troll has gone a bit out of the way to provoke this game and your play has been pretty open to attacks with how close you held your cards to your chest at the start.

My point about the assumption you are making about what the lack of attacks and votes on us means still stands.

The scum can't afford to let the town completely set the tempo if the chosen no be getting attacked. Further day one be the easiest time to lay groundwork for future lynches. If we had been playing games that no were easily assailable you might have a point but neither of us were. A tentative attack on either of us no would have drawn much of a spotlight to the attacker. Troll no be saying that it be a definite thing but this be as good as we could get on day one.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Sajin]

@Scien point 3: It might get his vote onto a scum. Either way he may as well be a scum voting at this point even if he is not. I was referencing his latching onto someone else after my lynch. Regardless.

[Cojin]

Ouch at the L-1.

Claim Vanilla town with a precived 1/3 chance of being choosen and a very high belife i would not be vetoed

I have a strong belif that i would be choosen, i would like everyone before hammering me to take a look at my meta and im sure you would understand why, you see me being at l-1 day 1 is not just commen, its GAURANTEEd to happen at least one time at any given point, i have lived past day one once as scum but other then that i have been killed everytime.

my scum list consists of MM or PZ dependent on if one is i feel the other shall be.

Sajin seems almost so presistant on a hohum lynch that my belife is hohum is chosen and sajin may be scum.


Thats all i got for ya.

Please give me tell a day before the deadline before lynching.
And please take time out to review my meta.

[Nikanor]

Sajin seems almost so presistant on a hohum lynch that my belife is hohum is chosen and sajin may be scum.

What about the other way around? hohum has been tunnelling on Sajin this whole game.
Sajin has recently moved his vote to Nikanor. Have you anything to say about this?

[Scien]

my scum list consists of MM or PZ dependent on if one is i feel the other shall be.

Could you elaborate on why?

[Papa Zito]

^^^ Echo these questions. My only other comment on Cojin's post is that meta defenses make me twitch.

[MiteyMouse]

I have a strong belif that i would be choosen, i would like everyone before hammering me to take a look at my meta and im sure you would understand why, you see me being at l-1 day 1 is not just commen, its GAURANTEEd to happen at least one time at any given point, i have lived past day one once as scum but other then that i have been killed everytime.

That's a strong claim there Cojin. Some people have stated that they don't believe that they have been excluded but, to say that you think you are the chosen? That smells of Scummy desperation my friend!

[MiteyMouse]

Cojin...can you answer who you would have excluded as the Chosen if you were Scum please?

I wouldn't mind hearing from everyone else but, I really want to hear Cojin's answer to this.

[Cojin]

Because of the posting tommorow comment, and they really have been avoiding eachother.

Cojin's post is that meta defenses make me twitch.

The case against me is on the basis that my cases are weak, how am i supposed to defend that, im going to lump this quote with MMs.

Some people have stated that they don't believe that they have been excluded but, to say that you think you are the chosen? That smells of Scummy desperation my friend!

The reason i used meta as my defence is because scum got to choose 2 people who not to be choosen, now with a goal of eliminating at least one choosen, you would not want very good players to have a chance now would you? so if 2 are vetoed then that means 5 people have a chance to be choosen, and scince there are 2 choosen thats 2/5 chance for an individual to be choose, i gave myself the leway of about 1/3. I seriously belive, only a foolish scum would veto me, i am not a good player, and it is evident.

[Cojin]

Cojin...can you answer who you would have excluded as the Chosen if you were Scum please?

I dont understand why you are asking this question, elaborate please.

[MiteyMouse]

Cojin...can you answer who you would have excluded as the Chosen if you were Scum please?

I dont understand why you are asking this question, elaborate please.

I will elaborate after you answer.

[Zorblag]

Right. So what do people think about what Cojin just did? Unintentional mistake from a townie or intentional mistake from scum? For that matter how about the fact that MiteyMouse largely just implied the same mistake before Cojin made it explicit? Troll be mulling it over.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Zorblag]

Hmm, nevermind the bit about MiteyMouse there; that be a bit of stretch as a way to read what she said.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[qwints]

It feels intentional to me, given the way he got the odds right (assuming scum wouldn't veto him) when he first discussed the issue. Furthermore, there's very little chance of a genuine slip from someone paying attention given the extensive discussion that was correctly based on the right number of vetoes. Not to mention the fact that the rules bold the number of vetoes that the scum get. With all those factors, I think it's much more likely that he's scum trying a gambit that he thought of at the last minute rather than a genuine confused townie.

[qwints]

Also, this conclusion makes no sense if Cojin truly believed there were two scum vetoes.

2. Given my meta i find it unlikly to be vetoed, and a higher chance to be lynched, i would say I am 1/3-1/4 likely to be choosen.

Combined with Cojin's early contradiction, I think Cojin is now obv-scum.

[Zorblag]

Yeah, Troll thinks Troll agrees with qwints here, especially when Troll looks back and sees this (bolding is Troll's):

As far as previous posts made by others go, I would almost go as far to say its all null tell, due to the belif it was all rule misconceptions,

i for one had to reread the rules multiple times before i understood what exactly this setup is about.

The rules really do be quite clear about how many exclusions the scum get; Troll would assume that Cojin would have gotten it just with a first read but if him read them multiple times him really should have it right.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Scien]

Uh... but wouldn't scum know exactly how many vetoes they had... well, because they used them?

Its a mistake, and yes it might have been an intentional 'mistake' in order to add to his statistics point he was trying to make, but I think I need more convincing to get make it a blatant scum slip in my mind.

Seems like it would be fairly foolhardy to so blatantly claim rules that are not true anyway in any kind of discussion you would get in.

[Scien]

Oh... you are suggesting the thing I am discussing is what he is trying to do? Get people to believe he is not scum by making a 'mistake' like this.

Do you think he is clever enough to pull that? (No offense intended, I probably wouldn't be clever enough to do so either)

[Zorblag]

If him be scum him can daytalk and him has a partner. Troll no be willing to write anyone's cleverness off for a ploy like this given that combination.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Scien]

Yuk.

Daytalk. You are right. We are working against a fully functioning team here.

So then... let me ask about the thought process that went into the math:

2. Given my meta i find it unlikly to be vetoed, and a higher chance to be lynched, i would say I am 1/3-1/4 likely to be choosen.

How did you arrive at 1/3 - 1/4?

I have a strong belif that i would be choosen

Why did this change at end of day when compared to the beginning of day? The math wouldn't have changed. So why did your beliefs change?