/in-vitational 2 - Chosen, Karaoke - Game over! before 830

[Zorblag]

Troll no saw awareness that the scum would be best served by no night killing in most situation where the town would be best served by no lynching.

Meh. I didn't really feel like telling the scum how to act. Same reason I said that the remaining scum would be feeling pressure without explaining why. If we hit a vanilla townie here today, they have no night option. Now is his time to push for something, if he was indeed just sitting on the sidelines like is being suggested as a possibility. Besides... it is pretty explicit in the rules that the town has to have the final action... that was a pretty obvious loss condition was even bolded.

Again, if you saw this on day one that be fine but your stated reasons for considering a no lynch often involved getting to use night kills that the mafia made as additional sources of information. Troll's point here be that scum had every reason never to let that come up. As for sitting at the sidelines today, if scum are pretty sure them aren't going to be lynched today it still be a somewhat viable path; if we no lynch them today then we have a decent chance of hitting a chosen on our own. If we lynched a vanilla townie today then we'd still have to try again tomorrow after no night kills and we'd be equally likely to hit a chosen as we would scum or the final vanilla townie by numbers alone.

The reason that Troll no be that worried about scum using that tactic now be that it would be best used if it had been the plan all along; in that case there should have been no night kills.

I find it odd that you would think so when I espoused his lynch the whole back half of the day.

You find it odd? The cases on them were both similar. Mostly lurking claims, followed by lynch all lurker arguments. Why would the lurker matter? I don't see how me thinking you would switch after the quote I mentioned would be a unreasonable assumption.

Papa Zito's case on MiteyMouse wasn't lurking though. It was the incorrect statement of the win conditions that she made early in the game.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Papa Zito]

Papa Zito's case on MiteyMouse wasn't lurking though. It was the incorrect statement of the win conditions that she made early in the game.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

... which was bad because she's played Chosen before.

[Scien]

@PapaZ
Yes there was more to both cases other than lurking. Both people had lurker cases on them as well though. It would have been an easy link to either win support from the other wagon or to justify a late game vote nearing deadline... it would have just been TOO easy to play that off as scum for me to believe that you think I would rather just sit to the side, and not attempt to save a partner.

Yes I realize that I could have planned the Cojin mistake, and was the one who questioned it openly, as opposed to trusting Zorblag's take right off the bat. I can't really prove to you that I didn't plan. But it is true that I didn't.

Fine... I'll reread you in iso and come back with more questions since you would not like to give me your opinion. I have a feeling that for being confident she was scum in day 1, you were awfully light on her in day 2.

As for where I'm going with this? As I have said before, this bit of logic doesn't make much since to me, and wanted to discuss it with you. It still doesn't make sense to me, but meh. Besides, its giving me information about you, at the same time I'm waiting for Nik. I really am interested in him, and might even be the hammer this time around depending on his current view of the game. We can discuss that if you like.

@Zorblag
The general cases. Others were on her for lurking as well as other reasons.

Also, I understand that the scum can still sit back... but they are feeling more pressure now. If they aren't then they don't know their current position. The fact that their night actions might be pulled away from them will be a wake up call if they don't realize it already.

[Zorblag]

@Zorblag
The general cases. Others were on her for lurking as well as other reasons.

Troll thinks that saying the case on Cojin was for lurking be largely fair. Troll no thinks that be the case for MiteyMouse. Trying to equate the two wagons as both being for lurking seems like a mischaracterization.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Papa Zito]

Fine... I'll reread you in iso and come back with more questions since you would not like to give me your opinion. I have a feeling that for being confident she was scum in day 1, you were awfully light on her in day 2.

This smells like spin. I want you to do the research yourself and see what your conclusion is. Because right now you're just making baseless attacks.

[Incognito]

Vote Count #3 of Day 3

Nikanor (2) <-~ Papa Zito, Zorblag

Not voting (3) <-~ MiteyMouse, Nikanor, Scien

With 5 living, 3 will do it.

Monday, September 21st at 7 P.M. EDT.

[Scien]

They aren't attacks... I am just wanting to understand. But meh.

[Nikanor]

Sorry folks, I've been busy lately. I'll post later tonight or tomorrow morning.

[MiteyMouse]

I agree with the Troll here, the case on me wasn't lurking...well not just lurking. I was over emotional and didn't read my PM well enough. That is a fair case. Well if you don't know me...hehehe! Most of you know that I'm not always a careful reader and I'm flakey and flighty and emotional. These are both my best and my worst personality traits.

I found this really interesting actually.

Papa Zito, you had made it pretty clear that you thought MiteyMouse was scum. Troll thinks that it no be at all unreasonable for Scien to think that you would be willing to switch to her wagon without all that much pressure.

I believe I also made it clear that she was caught and so I was more interested in finding her partner.

It's kinda like on Battleship where you hit a ship and then keep hunting instead of spending turns sinking the ship you found.

Pretend that I'm new here Papa. If you think I'm caught then why are you looking at Nik?

Incog...I probably won't be around for the weekend.

[Papa Zito]

I think you should read Day 2 again, too, Mitey.

[Nikanor]

To answer Scien's question:

Why talk about how strong the case was? Did it matter? We hit scum... what was the motive for telling everyone it was for bad reasoning? I would actually like an answer for that question from Nik.

Why are you leaving out the question I'm answering in that quote?

Him seemed to be perfectly willing to let Sajin lead him into a vote and went so far as to say that him was happy with his vote unless there was interest in Sajin or hohum with no mention of Cojin.

I didn't think the Cojin case was very good. Correct me if I'm wrong, but the case against him was basically that he was lurking. I have a history of lurking as both scum and town, so I don't really consider it much of a tell either way.

My reason for saying that was that I was answering a question from Troll.

@Scien: You say the last scum should be feeling the pressure to lynch a chosen right now. What do you think of the speed with which my wagon has built? What will you make of it if I flip chosen? What about if I flip townie?

[Papa Zito]

That's it? You're at L-1 and the best you can come up with is "yeah but what if I'm Chosen" scare tactics?

[Zorblag]

It do be less than Troll might have hoped for from Nikanor given the state of the game but it no be Troll's opinion about this that matters at this time.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Scien]

Why are you leaving out the question I'm answering in that quote?

Meh, because on the iso I was doing of you, I missed the context apparently... Sorry about that. You are right, it looks ok since you were expressly asked why you weren't looking at Cojin. So I guess I apologize there.

The whole thing with Papa Zito being the first to vote Cojin being a towntell seems a bit overrated to me. Seeing how much Cojin undervalued himself makes me think he may have told Papa Zito to bus him indescriminately. I also see that Cojin has stopped playing on Mafiascum.net entirely, so he may have told Papa Zito to bus him in a suicide attempt.

Perhaps, but do you think this was likely to happen early in the day? And day 1 for that matter? I agree that this thought has crossed my mind, and indeed his aggressiveness towards Cojin is what was keeping him off my potential players that would have been involved in a Cojin plan.

Also while I am thinking about it... if there was a plan, it doesn't mesh with what you are thinking about PapaZ. If they where intentionally going to sacrifice Cojin, why concoct a plan to save him? What's your thoughts on the Cojin plan? I take it you don't think there was one...

@Scien: You say the last scum should be feeling the pressure to lynch a chosen right now. What do you think of the speed with which my wagon has built? What will you make of it if I flip chosen? What about if I flip townie?

It is suspicious, but the people on it are the people I am pretty much not suspicious to me the way things stand currently.

If you flip chosen, that would change immediately. I don't think the scum have been sitting back this whole game... they might be now... But in anycase, I would start second guessing my thoughts about the plan and PapaZ and Zorblag most likely. Not to say I would change my mind, but rather, reconsider the possibility there was no mistake plan, or that PapaZ's zealotry in the first day might have been a plan...

If you flip vanilla town? I suggest my own lynch tomorrow... more on that below.

---

I have played a horribly sloppy game. Misquoting people on accident, using bad logic in haste, questioning people heavilly and making it look like attacks out of the blue, and general mistakes almost every other post.

I have gotten little to no flack out of it. This strikes me as odd. I should be an easy target if I am chosen, I should have been pressured more. Time and time again, people questioned me and backed off.

I strongly doubt I am chosen at this point.
I'm still trying to keep an open mind, and will react to what people think of this, but those are my thoughts currently.

I don't think that I should be the lynch for today however. I think that tomorrow we will be in almost the same boat as today if I am indeed lynched and non-chosen, and you guys will be faced with the same problem.

On the other hand if I am chosen, I don't think it is worth it to throw out our win condition just for the additional knowledge of who would be willing to be on my wagon today. The fact that I said I would be down with my lynch would dilute knowledge we would gain from it in my opinion. And we shouldn't be using it today due to the less knowledge than we would gain elsewhere.

---

Back to you.

I have said I would hammer you.

My points are exclusionary in nature. I am subscribing to the Cojin mistake plan. I think PapaZ's aggressiveness excludes him from who could have came up with the plan. I think that Zorbag's outting of the plan immediately, keeps him off the suspect list. History with Mitey keeps her off the suspect list. Leaving dead people and you.

What are your thoughts on these points, and why do you believe I am mistaken in my current thought process? I am willing to toss a vote to you soon, but would like more before I do so.

[Scien]

Back to you though Papa, right fast.

You never attacked Mitey in day2. You had her at top of list at dawn, questioned me for a bit right after that, caught the flu, then went hardcore against Hohum.

Before we continue that. Rereading a bit of day one, you pretty much were not strong on her there either. You made a bunch of noise saying that you thought her scum, and I can think of a few reasons for that, but you were never perusing her. You just said you had her 'dead to rights', while trying to look elsewhere for information.

Were you actually confident she was scum in day 1, your first day 2 list supports this? Was your list at the beginning of day 2 due to your thoughts of day 1 minus the end? After you started looking at others, did you forget about her?

[Scien]

For the turkey.

When I say you never attacked Mitey in day 2, I should say you once mentioned that she had a 'scum dripping' post. That's about it. Didn't question her on the post. Didn't question her over day 1 issues. What was I rereading for again Papa? Was there something specific I was supposed to see? I didn't see it.

[Papa Zito]

[1]Were you actually confident she was scum in day 1, your first day 2 list supports this? [2]Was your list at the beginning of day 2 due to your thoughts of day 1 minus the end? [3]After you started looking at others, did you forget about her?

1. I was indeed. I happened to know that Mitey was playing in another Chosen game (which just ended, thankfully - http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.php?t=11842) so my belief was that she was well aware of the Chosen mechanic and how it worked. For her to screw that up in this game seemed a sure scum tell.
2. I'm not sure what you mean by this. I figured Mitey was scum, so she was first. hohum's crappy hammer made him #2. Your behavior at the end of Day 1 made you #3. So I'm not sure what you mean "minus the end".
3. Not at all. If you look at the beginning of the day, you'll note that I ask Troll directly about the Mitey slip. I took his response, looked back at the thing in context, and decided I was on the wrong track. And then I got distracted by hohum's lack of anything.

[Scien]

Sigh... I can already hear you crying about me 'attacking' you again... but something here is not jiving well with me... I'm trying pretty hard to keep my posts soft since I am mainly looking at Nik... but I don't think I will feel comfortable ending the day with this feeling.

2) Heh, what you are saying there makes a bit more of sense. When I was looking at it, I thought your inital list was not including my end-of-day 1 plays. I jumped to this conclusion due to after your reread, coming in say "You know, Scien's end of day 1 looks pretty bad". I thought that was a new thought and hence not on the initial list, rather than just a connector into your previous discussion. Both work, and so your explanation makes sense.

3) Ok. So you asked a single question about Mitey's slip in early day 2. Troll comes back with a 'That seems like a possible slip, and wouldn't serve scum to much anyway', and you back off for a reread. On your reread I look more suspicious (I have no issue with this btw).

Ok. How far down did Mitey move when you subscribed to Zorblag's views on Mitey's slip? Was/is she still suspicious to you? Even Zorblag seemed to think the slip still had some elements of scumminess about it (or so he claimed at the time). Did she move far enough off your suspect list that her later post in the day that was 'dripping with scum' was not enough to look at her again before your Hohum pursuit?

What's your current top 3 scum list?

[Scien]

I should add, that after your reread on step 3, you came back and started investigating the others on your top 3. That's anti-suspicious I suppose, but you did make no mention of your views on Mitey after reread, which might be part of my unease.

Hearing what your thoughts were then and are now might help a bit.

[Scien]

Mitey... current thoughts?

[Papa Zito]

Sigh... I can already hear you crying about me 'attacking' you again

Ok. [1]How far down did Mitey move when you subscribed to Zorblag's views on Mitey's slip? Was/is she still suspicious to you? Even Zorblag seemed to think the slip still had some elements of scumminess about it (or so he claimed at the time). [2]Did she move far enough off your suspect list that her later post in the day that was 'dripping with scum' was not enough to look at her again before your Hohum pursuit?

1. She went to third. That change didn't affect my town reads.
2. It didn't but it probably should have. I was pretty pissed at hohum for being an outright cad though.

What's your current top 3 scum list?

You want a top 3 out of 5 players? Hmm.

[Scien]

Fine no current scum list... doesn't matter at this point anyway. I just am trying to read your frame of mind. I can do that other ways.

One last barrage of questions for the moment.

Now... here you are heavily involved in a wagon on Nik. Mitey was 3 yesterday after looking at the rest of your top 3. Why Nik over Mitey now? You have a third person threatening hammer of Nik... you claim to be interested in getting info for the town? Why are you not looking at Mitey now, before this threatened hammer is dropped?

[Papa Zito]

Because I'm feeling really good about this lynch I guess. Nikanor's lurkish behavior while at L-1 would have convinced me if I wasn't already convinced. I think we're about to win so I'm just waiting to pop the champagne bottle.

Why Nikanor over Mitey? I thought I'd given my opinion on Nikanor earlier. Votes matter more than rhetoric.

[Scien]

Heh... I'm looking for information in case this doesn't work out...

My vote would be teh suck, if it doesn't work out and we missed all this day's chance to talk.

Oh well. I guess I am satisfied for the moment...

---

To Nik. You're on the block. If I don't hear from you within a couple of days, I'm hammering.

[Nikanor]

Also while I am thinking about it... if there was a plan, it doesn't mesh with what you are thinking about PapaZ. If they where intentionally going to sacrifice Cojin, why concoct a plan to save him? What's your thoughts on the Cojin plan? I take it you don't think there was one...

I think Cojin would be intelligent and sneaky enough to try something like that for himself. I doubt anyone told him to do it. That kind of thing is more spur of the moment; it's not easily planned.

What are your thoughts on these points, and why do you believe I am mistaken in my current thought process? I am willing to toss a vote to you soon, but would like more before I do so.

Well, I think Cojin could have come up with it on his own, but assuming he didn't, I would say this about the players:
1) Papa Zito: If he were Cojin's buddy, I doubt he would come up with such a thing. If he wanted to bus Cojin into oblivion, I can't see any reason for him to make up something like that to make Cojin appear more town. (As I'm writing this, I see that the Cojin suicide theory doesn't work here, either. Cojin wouldn't feign a mistake if he were trying to commit suicide, unless he were Zorblag's partner [see below]).
2) Zorblag: The fact that he almost immediately pointed out the mistake as a fabrication means nothing to me. I would have done the same as scum. I think that if Zorblag is scum, and he made up the mistake plan, he would have some very good reasons for pointing out the mistake immediately. For one, he would gain town brownie points for calling out something that would inevitably be called out, avoiding suspicion for nearly the entire game. Secondly, he would be able to sew confusion among the town by accusing the wafflers (namely Scien and I) of waffling, futher avoiding suspicion and setting up possible future lynches. I believe that as scum, Zorblag had at least a couple reasons to point out Cojin's 'mistake,' so clearing him for that is a bad idea.
3) MiteyMouse: As far as I know, she could have made up the mistake. However, many people seem to be discounting her based on her meta, so I shall do the same.
4) Scien: Your waffling at the end of day one can as easily be confused town as it could be flip-flopping scum. I consider it a nulltell.