/in-vitational 2 - Chosen, Karaoke - Game over! before 830

[Incognito]

Vote Count #2 of Day 3

Nikanor (2) <-~ Papa Zito, Zorblag

Not voting (3) <-~ MiteyMouse, Nikanor, Scien

With 5 living, 3 will do it.

Monday, September 21st at 7 P.M. EDT.

[Papa Zito]

Scien and Mitey, your opinions on Nikanor plz.

[Scien]

Scien and Mitey, your opinions on Nikanor plz.

Meh. Given him a skim reread in isolation, and like before, I don't have much of a read.

On the reread I did see this spread out over the first two days:

A thing to note about lurker-Cojin: He wasn't like this at all in the last game I was in with him. He posted quite a bit more than this, which may have contributed to his lynch as scum. Maybe he's trying something different this game? /WIFOM

A note about lurkers in general, however hypocritical it may be: In a game where scum can day-talk, there is less incentive for scum to post in-thread, since they can just spend the day talking to their partner instead. The biggest offender of this has been Cojin, who only posts when prompted.

At the moment, I feel that qwints has diminished in scumminess enough to warrant an unvote.
Cojin, however, has done nothing to assuage my suspicions against him. In fact, his lurking has only served to inflame my scumsensors.

I didn't think the Cojin case was very good. Correct me if I'm wrong, but the case against him was basically that he was lurking. I have a history of lurking as both scum and town, so I don't really consider it much of a tell either way. Which brings me to your next point:

Him got prodded once during day one and Troll called for another prod later. Him responded immediately which be evidence that him was following the thread to some degree even though him no was posting. If anyone in this game be active lurking it be Nikanor or hohum but hohum has a more coherent story for his reasons.

Yes, I was actively lurking, but I have a history for active lurking as town. I can provide links to specific posts that support this if you desire.

I don't think we have talked about this yet. That is a backtrack I believe. But I don't understand the motives why it was posted in the first place. The second quote is in day 2, after Cojin flipped scum. Why talk about how strong the case was? Did it matter? We hit scum... what was the motive for telling everyone it was for bad reasoning? I would actually like an answer for that question from Nik.

---

Minus all that I was kind of waiting to see what his response to the current wagon would be. My view of him is still pretty much where it was before. If there was a mistake plan, it would have been cooked up by Hohum, Nik, or Sajin. Nik is the only one left, but since I have a neutralish read, I really just want to hear more from him before I would cast a vote.

[Scien]

I actually also have a question for you PapaZ.

You made mention before that how uninvolved I have been in this game is a scummy tell. Do you believe this? If so, why? I hate to be the one bringing it up, since I am not a total observer. But I can assure you that I don't really care how you see me, I'm more curious as to the reasons behind your thoughts. I'll explain why I ask after you answer, and you'll just have to believe me for a moment that I am not polling you.

[MiteyMouse]

Scien...I think that both Zorblag and Papa could have come up with the "mistake" thing as well. I think that they are both cunning enough for it...not saying that they did it but, they are both smart cookies.

Nik is one of my top 2 suspects Papa. I'd be for his lynch today!

[Scien]

Scien...I think that both Zorblag and Papa could have come up with the "mistake" thing as well. I think that they are both cunning enough for it...not saying that they did it but, they are both smart cookies.

Truth.

But, if Zorblag did it, he outed his own plan to the town immediately and drove the mob towards his partner for the lynch. It would have been just as easy to suggest to the town that the mistake proved towniness, and pushed it toward the other wagon, you.

PapaZ was hardcore against Cojin all day one. He didn't flinch after the mistake, and stayed on him till the lynch. If it was PapaZ's plan, I think he would have at least switched play to appear like he was considering using the mistake as a town tell, and would probably try and drive the wagon towards you. His unflinching pursuit of Cojin in this case seems to argue against him being scum.

[Papa Zito]

I don't recall saying anything like that, Scien. Quote it for me?

[Scien]

I was extrapolating from this:

Three interesting things to note from this. One, Sajin ended both days on Nikanor. Two, Scien ended both days not voting. Three, Nikanor was off the scum wagon Day 1 but on the townie wagon Day 2. I think our scum lies in one of these two; I'm leaning Nikanor. (this would also make Mitey extremely likely Chosen) brb, iso.

You are saying that the scum lies within Scien and Nik. The reason I am on there is because I ended both days not voting.

I took that to mean that you thought I was uninvolved, and that was scummy. If I'm wrong please correct me.

[Papa Zito]

Ah.

Not uninvolved. I find it scummy because it seems as if you're deliberately avoiding wagons so as not to leave tracks. You're obviously involved as you've been posting.

[Scien]

Fair.

And I would even almost say logical.

However, do you think that what you are observing from my play would be a viable tactic from a scum standpoint?

Do you think that avoiding wagons points to scumminess, and how?

[Papa Zito]

I saw you defending/avoiding/waffling/-ing a scum player at the end of day 1, and keeping clear of a townie lynch day 2 without strongly advocating an alternative. I can see these as scum tactics.

To your second question: Bandwagon analysis is one of the best tools at Town's disposal so a refusal to lay a vote (i.e. a refusal to join any bandwagon whatsoever) is damaging to this instrument. Not laying a vote is equivalent to saying "everyone is neutral, I have no good reads on anyone" which is a scum stance.

[Scien]

Also, close to fair.

However, we had a very close MiteyMouse lynch in day 1...

Do you think that you would see me staying one hundred percent neutral, waffling, avioding, etc as opposed to trying to drive towards Mitey? Why do you think it would be more benefital from a Scien scum standpoint to be completely out of the fight, rather than trying to push towards a lynch on another? Which seems more scummy to you, pushing towards a town/chosen or not pushing towards anyone?

Also related but on a different line, you say that "everyone is neutral, I have no good reads on anyone", is a scum stance. Why, and with what stipulations?

[Papa Zito]

[1]Do you think that you would see me staying one hundred percent neutral, waffling, avioding, etc as opposed to trying to drive towards Mitey? [2]Why do you think it would be more benefital from a Scien scum standpoint to be completely out of the fight, rather than trying to push towards a lynch on another? [3]Which seems more scummy to you, pushing towards a town/chosen or not pushing towards anyone?

1. Driving towards someone isn't your style. I don't ever see you driving wagons. Besides, the Mitey wagon never had steam. Troll refused multiple times to push the wagon along and Cojin/Nikanor were more-or-less absent.
2. It's a fairly common scum tactic. Scum prefer to lay low and blend in.
3. Not pushing towards anyone. Town mislynch town all the time; sad but true. I don't have a problem with it though when their reasons for the mislynch are sound. Those that stay on the sidelines or quietly join without expressing strong opinions on the matter, though, are highly suspect.

Also related but on a different line, you say that "everyone is neutral, I have no good reads on anyone", is a scum stance. Why, and with what stipulations?

Keeping players in neutral makes it easier for scum to slide onto wagons without causing too many ripples. It's much harder for scum to join a townie mislynch wagon if they've previously identified the wagoned player as town. Beyond that it's just impossible (to me) to play a game and come to the end of a day without having some read on some players.

Only stipulations on this I can think of are if the game just started or if the player just replaced in.

Why are we having all this theory discussion?

[Scien]

Because the rules change in Chosen. If I was scum, I MUST hit a chosen in order to win. Scum sitting back and letting the town lynch away is more likely to bring a scum loss than a scum win.

Because if the town continue to hit normal townies (which is more likely than chosen for most the game), and scum can only kill normal townies, no chosen get lynched. Even if you think that it would be advantageous to sit back and try to push the town towards the end of the game, at that stage the sudden explosion in aggressiveness would tip the town off and out the scum.

Yes that's more theory. But I think that it is odd that you would throw scumminess towards neutral, waffling, avoiding in this specific game. And by odd, I would say illogical. Unless you expect me to eventually push, I don't see how you can see my play as scummy. Since I don't see, I have to question you, and your motives for saying that it does.

---

Driving towards someone isn't your style. I don't ever see you driving wagons. Besides, the Mitey wagon never had steam. Troll refused multiple times to push the wagon along and Cojin/Nikanor were more-or-less absent.

Weren't you in Newbie 762?

In this current game Mitey was also absent. But her wagon had steam. It would have been just as easy to hit her for lurking as it was to hit Cojin for lurking.

Right close to end of day even:

hohum (1) <-~ Sajin
Sajin (1) <-~ hohum
MiteyMouse (3) <-~ Zorblag, Nikanor, Cojin
Cojin (3) <-~ Papa Zito, qwints, MiteyMouse

If I was a bit more vocal on Mitey at that point there would have been enough 'steam' for her lynch at that point... she would have been at L-1. I believe I would have won you over as well... near that vote count you awknowledged that you would be for either of them:

We're running out of time, kids.

MiteyMouse (3) <-~ Zorblag, Nikanor, Cojin
Cojin (3) <-~ Papa Zito, qwints, MiteyMouse

We have two viable wagons here. We need to pick one.

You are saying that her wagon had no steam? She was at L-2 with a possible me and you as the finishers. Whats your definition of no steam?

---

2. It's a fairly common scum tactic. Scum prefer to lay low and blend in.
3. Not pushing towards anyone. Town mislynch town all the time; sad but true. I don't have a problem with it though when their reasons for the mislynch are sound. Those that stay on the sidelines or quietly join without expressing strong opinions on the matter, though, are highly suspect.

At [2], I think that tactic doesn't work in chosen. What do you think?
At [3], have I been quietly joining anyone? Mitey's wagon? Hohum's? Anybodies? Was I even stoking the fire at all?

Keeping players in neutral makes it easier for scum to slide onto wagons without causing too many ripples. It's much harder for scum to join a townie mislynch wagon if they've previously identified the wagoned player as town. Beyond that it's just impossible (to me) to play a game and come to the end of a day without having some read on some players.

I think chosen changes that a bit. The scum need to be more aggressive in order to get their day kill. They can not win without it, and with each additional kill, they will be under more pressure. The remaining scum should be feeling the pressure right now.

[Zorblag]

Actually, Troll could see lurking on the part of scum confident that them could avoid getting lynched and not pushing any cases as a pretty viable tactic in this setup with two chosen. Especially after Cojin got lynched the first day. The way to go about it would involve never night killing and giving the town as many chances as possible to lynch a chosen on their own. Troll thinks that Troll PMd the mod with this thought when Troll first saw the rules. Happily whoever the scum be no came to the same conclusion about that. That there have been night kills makes any passive scum strategy a much more marginal thing.

Incidentally, we should now be past the time when it might matter, so here be what people were not fully taking into account during the discussion about no lynches earlier: any time it actually be a better choice for the town to no lynch the scum can force the town to lynch by not killing for two straight nights. If it was ever clear that no lynching was the correct decision it no would be one that we could choose if we be up against competent scum. Given the site-wide meta opposing no lynch those pushing it would need to spell out the reasons well enough for the scum to see them and use this appropriate counter.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Scien]

Incidentally, we should now be past the time when it might matter, so here be what people were not fully taking into account during the discussion about no lynches earlier: any time it actually be a better choice for the town to no lynch the scum can force the town to lynch by not killing for two straight nights. If it was ever clear that no lynching was the correct decision it no would be one that we could choose if we be up against competent scum. Given the site-wide meta opposing no lynch those pushing it would need to spell out the reasons well enough for the scum to see them and use this appropriate counter.

I thought of that. When I was arguing about it before, it was for the benefit of time for the town. Not to force scum action. Even then I already knew that final action rested on the town.

If it ever came down to needing more information, we could use the no-lynch as a way to give us more time to get that information.

[Zorblag]

Hmm, many of your arguments seemed to involve using the night kills the scum made as additional sources of information. There was one point where you said that it could be used for time (in a situation where the scum could be forced to no kill in response to a no lynch) but Troll no saw awareness that the scum would be best served by no night killing in most situation where the town would be best served by no lynching. If you had taken that into account then that be good. Troll no thinks that it was clear from what you said.

The reason Troll held off on mentioning the specifics there till now was to avoid giving scum more access to the idea that no night kills might be a good strategy in general until one chosen was lynched. Now it be too late for them to use that.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Papa Zito]

Troll's addressed a lot of this (better than I could) so I won't repeat what he said.

You are saying that her wagon had no steam? She was at L-2 with a possible me and you as the finishers. Whats your definition of no steam?

Yes, Scien, I'm saying her wagon had no steam. That's why I wrote "her wagon had no steam." I've also already told you why - none of the three sitting on her were actually pushing for her lynch.

My call to vote for one of the wagons was just that. I wanted to see where people were going to go. I had no intention of unvoting Cojin myself. I find it odd that you would think so when I espoused his lynch the whole back half of the day.

At [3], have I been quietly joining anyone? Mitey's wagon? Hohum's? Anybodies? Was I even stoking the fire at all?

You refused, and continue to refuse, to keep a vote on anyone for longer than 10 seconds. So no, you haven't been joining anyone. FTR I put a lot more stock into votes than I do text. We're almost polar opposites on this regard so I don't really expect you to understand this.

[Zorblag]

Papa Zito, you had made it pretty clear that you thought MiteyMouse was scum. Troll thinks that it no be at all unreasonable for Scien to think that you would be willing to switch to her wagon without all that much pressure. Troll knows that Troll wasn't sure if you would switch before Troll did or not when we were getting to the second half of day one. Troll had a deadline in mind for Troll and stuck to it so that there would be some L-1 pressure before the very end of the day.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Papa Zito]

Papa Zito, you had made it pretty clear that you thought MiteyMouse was scum. Troll thinks that it no be at all unreasonable for Scien to think that you would be willing to switch to her wagon without all that much pressure.

I believe I also made it clear that she was caught and so I was more interested in finding her partner.

It's kinda like on Battleship where you hit a ship and then keep hunting instead of spending turns sinking the ship you found.

[Zorblag]

*nods* Troll did see that. Troll also assumed that if we got close to deadline that Papa Zito would switch to MiteyMouse to see if that would result in a lynch rather than staying with Cojin and settling for a no lynch with two wagons that no were moving. Does Troll be wrong about that?

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Papa Zito]

*nods* Troll did see that. Troll also assumed that if we got close to deadline that Papa Zito would switch to MiteyMouse to see if that would result in a lynch rather than staying with Cojin and settling for a no lynch with two wagons that no were moving. Does Troll be wrong about that?

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

No, that's correct. If deadline was imminent and the Cojin wagon wasn't going to happen, I would have switched to Mitey, or whoever the leading opposing wagon happened to be. Fortunately you moved first.

[Scien]

Troll no saw awareness that the scum would be best served by no night killing in most situation where the town would be best served by no lynching.

Meh. I didn't really feel like telling the scum how to act. Same reason I said that the remaining scum would be feeling pressure without explaining why. If we hit a vanilla townie here today, they have no night option. Now is his time to push for something, if he was indeed just sitting on the sidelines like is being suggested as a possibility. Besides... it is pretty explicit in the rules that the town has to have the final action... that was a pretty obvious loss condition was even bolded.

I find it odd that you would think so when I espoused his lynch the whole back half of the day.

You find it odd? The cases on them were both similar. Mostly lurking claims, followed by lynch all lurker arguments. Why would the lurker matter? I don't see how me thinking you would switch after the quote I mentioned would be a unreasonable assumption.

No, that's correct. If deadline was imminent and the Cojin wagon wasn't going to happen, I would have switched to Mitey, or whoever the leading opposing wagon happened to be. Fortunately you moved first.

Yep. I thought so. So back to me then. Assuming you think me scum, you think it more likely that I would sit quiet rather than push attention away from a scum partner and towards someone else? Someone that would have been townie, and with just about the same amount of pressure as my supposed Cojin partner?

Hey, you might think me a dirty non-voting waffler, but you really think I would not attempt to at least divert attention from my partner getting hosed in day one? It doesn't make sense that I wouldn't in that position, and you giving it scumminess that I didn't doesn't make sense.

As a quick aside, do you think you pushed for Mitey in day two? After finding her partner? Or had you decided that she wasn't scum after all?

[Scien]

Nik... there are question to you at the top of the page I believe.

[Papa Zito]

You find it odd? The cases on them were both similar. Mostly lurking claims, followed by lynch all lurker arguments. Why would the lurker matter? I don't see how me thinking you would switch after the quote I mentioned would be a unreasonable assumption.

There was more to the Cojin case than just lurking.

Yep. I thought so. So back to me then. Assuming you think me scum, you think it more likely that I would sit quiet rather than push attention away from a scum partner and towards someone else? Someone that would have been townie, and with just about the same amount of pressure as my supposed Cojin partner?

I know full well that you're capable of long-term planning as scum, Scien. A scenario in which you helped Cojin invent his mistake and then questioned him on it in an attempt to clear him isn't outside the realm of possibility.

As a quick aside, do you think you pushed for Mitey in day two? After finding her partner? Or had you decided that she wasn't scum after all?

I suggest you reread Day 2 to get your answer.

I really hope you're going somewhere with this.