/in-vitational 2 - Chosen, Karaoke - Game over! before 830

[Scien]

Hmm.

Papa Z, why do you think that "of course they'd kill Sajin".

Zorblag, do you still think that myself and you are the least likely to be chosen? If so, should we be talking about that win condition more seriously now?

Nik. I have the least read on you, and have no history to help out either. What is your current view of the game, taking into account last night and late yesterday.

MiteyMouse... meh. Getting information out of you is usually difficult. Can I ask you the same question, what is your current view of the game including last nights and late yesterday's information.

---

As for me... if I am still going to subscribe to that 'someone planned it for Cojin' thing, my last remaining suspect is Nik. This is scarey, because it could have been setup this way.

Of course now that it is down to a single suspect on my list, that means that I am starting to second guess my conclusion that it had to be either Nik, Sajin, or PapaZ.

[Nikanor]

Nik. I have the least read on you, and have no history to help out either. What is your current view of the game, taking into account last night and late yesterday.

I'm planning on reading Cojin's play on day one (his 'suspicions', etc.) to see if I can find anything in there. If that doesn't check out, I'll have to read the end of yesterday to look at the hohum wagon.

@MiteyMouse: Are you going to follow up on the veto question you asked yesterday? Otherwise, it just looks like scum trying to glean town reads for the upcoming night.

[Nikanor]

I'm planning on reading Cojin's play on day one (his 'suspicions', etc.) to see if I can find anything in there. If that doesn't check out, I'll have to read the end of yesterday to look at the hohum wagon.

EBWOP: I'm planning on doing both, of course, but what Cojin has said will be more conclusive than the hohum wagon, I think.

[Papa Zito]

Papa Z, why do you think that "of course they'd kill Sajin".

He was the only one of you lot that I had a really good feeling about.

MiteyMouse (2) <-~ Nikanor,

Cojin

Cojin

(5) <-~

Papa Zito

,

qwints

, MiteyMouse, Zorblag,

hohum

Nikanor (1) <-~

Sajin

Not voting (1) <-~ Scien

With 9 living, 5 will do it.

Cojin lynch is looking townie-driven, which makes sense.

Nikanor (1) <-~

Sajin

hohum (4)

<-~ Nikanor, MiteyMouse,

Papa Zito

, Zorblag

Not voting (2) <-~

hohum

, Scien

With 7 living, 4 will do it.

Not enough info here yet, obviously... more for future reference.

Three interesting things to note from this. One, Sajin ended both days on Nikanor. Two, Scien ended both days

not voting

. Three, Nikanor was off the scum wagon Day 1 but on the townie wagon Day 2. I think our scum lies in one of these two; I'm leaning Nikanor. (this would also make Mitey extremely likely Chosen) brb, iso.

[MiteyMouse]

I would have excluded either Zorblag or Papa.

I was looking at everyone's answers during the Night.

MiteyMouse

Papa, Zorblag

Nik

Scien, Hohum...random based on their joined dates.

Papa

Zorblag

Scien

Papa, Zorblag

Zorblag

Qwints, Papa, Scien

Fisrt off, I asked for 2 exclusions because we have 2 Chosen in this game and I thought that it might not hurst to have people give 2 as, whoever the Scum are might give up both of the Chosen.

I’m going to look at this from a few angles so, please bear with me here.

One of the first things that I was hoping for was for someone to have excluded someone that didn’t make sense. Someone that they had no meta with or no logical reason to exclude them. The only instance that this happened with was Nik and he did give some justification for his choices.

If everyone was being truthful in who they would have excluded (which I’m not convinced of but, more on that later) then it might be safe to say that Scien, Papa and Zorblag would have less of a statistical chance of being the Chosen then Nik or I. Now with only one Scum left the statistics go down but, it is worth noting.

Now, the other angle is that the Scum could have put the people that are the Chosen on their list. I would have put the Chosen on my list if I were Scum, to make it look like they have less chance of being the Chosen.

We are down to 5 now, and have not yet lynched a Chosen. The Scummy must be getting pretty desperate at this point and I really don’t think that they want to get down to Day 4 with the 2 Chosen and themselves.

This post has almost made me cry. I wrote it up and then went to post it and MS had an issue and I lost the whole thing….if Mr. MiteyMouse had not have been sleeping, I’m quite sure that you all would have heard me yelling at MS and my computer at that point in time…hehehe! That is the last time that I will compose a big post here...

[Incognito]

Vote Count #1 of Day 3

Not voting (5) <-~ MiteyMouse, Nikanor, Papa Zito, Scien, Zorblag

With 5 living, 3 will do it.

Monday, September 21st at 7 P.M. EDT.

[Zorblag]

Zorblag, do you still think that myself and you are the least likely to be chosen? If so, should we be talking about that win condition more seriously now?

Actually, with those flip Troll no be so sure anymore. Both Papa Zito and Nikanor now be pretty attractive options for not being the chosen as well now that Troll has additional information and Scien might actually be looking more like a Chosen to Troll than him did before.

Part of the reason for Troll to say as strongly as Troll did who be unlikely to be the chosen at the start was to give the scum more incentive to kill either Troll or Scien during the night. qwints wasn't a kill Troll had expected but it no was overly surprising given what Troll knows of him. Sajin on the other hand wasn't a kill that Troll expected at all. Troll was pretty sure that him was town but him also had a fair chance of being a chosen so him would have been good to leave around merely for the purposes of distraction. His play didn't strike Troll as strong enough to eliminate someone over so Troll would have expected him to be low on the list of those likely to get killed.

That neither Troll nor Scien be dead now be interesting.

Of course now that it is down to a single suspect on my list, that means that I am starting to second guess my conclusion that it had to be either Nik, Sajin, or PapaZ.

That clearly should be hohum rather than Papa Zito on your list.

Now, the other angle is that the Scum could have put the people that are the Chosen on their list. I would have put the Chosen on my list if I were Scum, to make it look like they have less chance of being the Chosen.

And this was what MiteyMouse came up with the last time as well. Troll no bought it then and Troll buys it even less now. Troll no thinks that scum would be significantly more likely to put the chosen on their list than other players. It be an overly simplistic idea and those that people be listing be largely those Troll would expect from them regardless of their roles.

Nikanor, you said you wanted to say something once people had given their choices. Has this now been said or was there something else?

At this point Troll has the following thoughts:

MiteyMouse got much attention during the first day but almost none the second day. Troll still thinks that Cojin's mistake was faked and that Cojin and MiteyMouse be the ones that be least likely to have come up with that plan. Given all that Troll sees in the game it just be unlikely in Troll's opinion that she be mafia.

The Sajin kill actually probably makes Nikanor look a bit better than him did before. It takes away much of the issue Troll had with him considering switching to Sajin or hohum towards the end of day one (the only reason left would be to save a scum partner rather than trying to switch to a chosen.) It would still be worth trying Troll supposes but the rewards go down. Day two Nikanor also didn't do anything to pursue anyone who might be a chosen.

Papa Zito has voted for every single dead vanilla townie we have thus far and was on the Cojin wagon (him more or less lead the Cojin wagon, starting it when it no was a clear best choice and pushing it along throughout day one.) Of those that still be alive him has voted for just Scien Troll believes. If Papa Zito be scum then him no be doing much to actively get the chosen lynched (possibly excepting a Scien chosen case but him no did that much along those lines.) Troll be a bit inclined to think that him should be town.

That leaves Scien who be letting the game happen much more than actually trying to influence it. Troll has talked already about the troubles Troll had with his day one play. Day two him was more concerned about living than Troll would like but that be a pretty common issue for people to have. Again, him hasn't made any sort of push on whoever the chosen might be as him has only ever voted for qwints and hohum Troll be pretty sure.

Right now, of those that be alive, here be the ones who have voted for them (who still be alive.) Troll no thinks Troll has forgotten any votes but if there be something that be missing please fill it in.

MiteyMouse: Nikanor, Zorblag
Nikanor: Zorblag
Papa Zito: None
Scien: Papa Zito, Zorblag
Zorblag: None

Troll needs to think on this a bit.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Scien]

That clearly should be hohum rather than Papa Zito on your list.

Doh. Yes. That is what I meant. The logic that follows also suggest that that is what I was thinking when I wrote that. I don't know why I have a hard time with those two... but this isn't the only time I've made the mistake of calling PapaZ Hohum and vice versa.

Papa Zito has voted for every single dead vanilla townie we have thus far

As well as you and Mitey. I'll let you think about it, as you said you wanted to, but I'm curious what kind of conclusion you are going to draw from that?

[Scien]

Logic that preceded... sorry.

Given that I was saying that only one remained on that list... that means the other two would of had to have been removed. That would be Sajin and Hohum.

[Zorblag]

Papa Zito has voted for every single dead vanilla townie we have thus far

As well as you and Mitey. I'll let you think about it, as you said you wanted to, but I'm curious what kind of conclusion you are going to draw from that?

There be a couple things that Scien could mean there but neither seem to be true. Papa Zito no has voted for Troll or MiteyMouse Troll no thinks. Further, Troll no voted for qwints ever (did Trol?) and MiteyMouse no voted for either qwints or Sajin Troll no thinks.

As for what Troll will come up with, Troll be curious as well. Currently the best fit scenario Troll can think of for everything that we be working with still no fits all that well.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Papa Zito]

FOS:PZ

I Really Really dont like how you said she would be here tommorow, givin that scum to day talk I am going to make the assumption that pz knows that MM will post tommorow due to PM conversation.

Meanwhile with MM I cant let the slip slide as a brain fart, and as far as unlikly choosen/most likely to be scum im going to have to go with MM.

Vote Miteymouse

If we are to point out people who have an obvious lack of knowledge of a town pm, it would be this guy:

Avoiding a lynch may prevent us from hitting one of the chosen but, it also keeps us from getting the Scummies.

We can't win with them alive.

We CAN win with the scum alive, so long as we don't lynch either of the chosen. The fact that you forget about one of town's win conditions is disconcerting.

Vote: MiteyMouse

Papa Zito's votehopping is duely noted. The fact that he only takes time to answer Zorblag's questions AFTER both bandwagons have gone cold amplifies the scumminess of his bandwagon-jumping, and makes me want to

FoS: Papa Zito

Almost uncanny, isn't it?

[Scien]

Hah... I am full of fail today.

There be a couple things that Scien could mean there but neither seem to be true. Papa Zito no has voted for Troll or MiteyMouse Troll no thinks. Further, Troll no voted for qwints ever (did Trol?) and MiteyMouse no voted for either qwints or Sajin Troll no thinks.

I meant, you said that PapaZ has voted for every single dead townie. I then based the rest of what I said on both town lynches, which doesn't even make sense since our first lynch was on a scum. (Both troll and Mitey were on both town lynches)

So I guess I amend what I said to, Mitey and PapaZ, and Zorblag were on both lynches. But that tells little... and wasn't what I thought I saw when I started running my mouth anyway.

So... long story short... I fail. Again.

[Scien]

And by town lynches I mean: kills conducted during the day, not killing of townies...

...sigh...

[Papa Zito]

@Mod: Are the scum forced to night-kill?

[Zorblag]

Papa Zito, it be pretty clear from the last rule in the voting, lynching and death section that them no be forced to night kill.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Incognito]

Scum are not forced to night-kill.

If town and scum gets into a deadlock, the pressure is on the town to lynch someone or it will autolose. I define deadlock as 3 total day-night cycles with no lynches and no night kills occurring.

[Papa Zito]

Bah. Missed that. There goes that idea.

So I'm going to

vote: Nikanor

then.

[Zorblag]

Troll would like to hear what Nikanor found when him did the readings him planned to in his last couple posts as well as his top couple suspicions.

Troll would like to hear more about MiteyMouse's suspicions as well at this time.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[MiteyMouse]

Zorblag...half of the people that I thought were more likely Town are now dead. My suspicions fall on Papa and Nik right now...mostly by process of elimination.

I also know that you don't like that I think that the Scum would list the Chosen under their excluded pick but, I still think that if I were the Scum I would do that.

[Zorblag]

Why Nikanor over Scien? Yesterday MiteyMouse seemed to treat the two as being similar.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Nikanor]

What I found from investigating Cojin's play:

FOS:PZ I Really Really dont like how you said she would be here tommorow, givin that scum to day talk I am going to make the assumption that pz knows that MM will post tommorow due to PM conversation.

This seems forced. This is Cojin's post 9. One thing to be noted is that Cojin likes FoSing his scumpartners to distance. He's done it in another game I was in with him as well.
The way he hops on MiteyMouse's bandwagon is scummy, and I'd say it makes her probably chosen.

About the wagon analysis of day two:
I find Scien likely to be town based on the lack of his presence on the hohum lurkerwagon. I think that scum was on the hohum wagon, which really doesn't narrow anything down by much, but since I think MiteyMouse is chosen, I'd say that either Papa Zito or Zorblag is scum.
The whole thing with Papa Zito being the first to vote Cojin being a towntell seems a bit overrated to me. Seeing how much Cojin undervalued himself makes me think he may have told Papa Zito to bus him indescriminately. I also see that Cojin has stopped playing on Mafiascum.net entirely, so he may have told Papa Zito to bus him in a suicide attempt.

@Zorblag: You said earlier that you think both you and Scien are unlikely to be chosen. Do you still think this? We have a chance to win by lynching two townies in a row. If you still believe both of you are townies, do you think we have a good chance of winning by chainlynching you and Scien?

[MiteyMouse]

Hmmm...Scien went on the WOW war with you Zorblag and didn't slip. I get the feeling that he is Town at this point.

[Zorblag]

@Zorblag: You said earlier that you think both you and Scien are unlikely to be chosen. Do you still think this? We have a chance to win by lynching two townies in a row. If you still believe both of you are townies, do you think we have a good chance of winning by chainlynching you and Scien?

It be so good to see that people be hanging on Troll's every word.

Zorblag, do you still think that myself and you are the least likely to be chosen? If so, should we be talking about that win condition more seriously now?

Actually, with those flip Troll no be so sure anymore. Both Papa Zito and Nikanor now be pretty attractive options for not being the chosen as well now that Troll has additional information and Scien might actually be looking more like a Chosen to Troll than him did before.

Part of the reason for Troll to say as strongly as Troll did who be unlikely to be the chosen at the start was to give the scum more incentive to kill either Troll or Scien during the night. qwints wasn't a kill Troll had expected but it no was overly surprising given what Troll knows of him. Sajin on the other hand wasn't a kill that Troll expected at all. Troll was pretty sure that him was town but him also had a fair chance of being a chosen so him would have been good to leave around merely for the purposes of distraction. His play didn't strike Troll as strong enough to eliminate someone over so Troll would have expected him to be low on the list of those likely to get killed.

The whole thing with Papa Zito being the first to vote Cojin being a towntell seems a bit overrated to me. Seeing how much Cojin undervalued himself makes me think he may have told Papa Zito to bus him indescriminately. I also see that Cojin has stopped playing on Mafiascum.net entirely, so he may have told Papa Zito to bus him in a suicide attempt.

It no just be that Papa Zito was the first vote on the Cojin wagon so much as that he was pushing the wagon to the exclusion of about anything else. Cojin did very little but what him did no made it seem like him was actually eager to be out of the game. The last posts from him argue against that a fair amount in Troll's opinion.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Zorblag]

So Troll has thought things through. None of the remaining players seem perfect for scum in Troll's mind but Nikanor does seem the most likely. Troll went over some reasons yesterday, Nikanor responded and Troll acknowledged that response even though it no did much to change Troll's opinions. Today Nikanor and Papa Zito both be citing the same post by Cojin which be interesting. Nikanor says that the FoS on Papa Zito feels forced and gives a one game meta of him doing that to distance from partners but Troll tends to think that if it be forced it be as likely to be because it be an FoS on a chosen as distancing from a partner.

Troll finds Nikanor's arguments against Papa Zito to be fairly flimsy at this point but them fit into a game where Nikanor and Cojin be scum and Papa Zito and MiteyMouse be the chosen reasonably well. Right now that be Troll's best guess for what be happening.

Vote: Nikanor

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Incognito]

Bumping vote count.