Mini 754 - Frogs Mafia Game, Set and Match.

[MacavityLock]

Vote: curiouskarmafrog

for having a username so close and yet so far from apropos to the theme.

[MacavityLock]

Hey Gorrad, I remember a game where TSQ played exactly like he has so far. Do you?

[MacavityLock]

Hey Gorrad, I remember a game where TSQ played exactly like he has so far. Do you?

...Come to think of it, I do. Recall what allignment he was?

But of course. Though it happens to be the alignment most useless for meta purposes. Everyone, please note that of TSQ's first 4 questions to crywolf, 3 of them actually misrep what crywolf did.

[MacavityLock]

I don't usually vote unless to hammer someone. I've random voted in the past, but all-in-all, I feel uncomfortable voting for someone before a hammer unless for a VERY good reason.

I guess that's part of your meta and all, but do you really feel like that's a pro-town way to play?

[MacavityLock]

Do random votes really count towards anything anyway? How is a random FoS any different? I suppose it prevents speedlynching a little. I really can't see any difference. If you want to make a big deal about me not voting, well that's silly. This is how I play. Deal with it. If you want to call me scum because of it, go ahead. I'd love to see your argument on how it makes me scum in this game as opposed to other games where I have been town. I do not think it is at all anti-town, either. It certainly does not inhibit my ability to discuss intelligently.

My FoSes are, for all intents and purposes, votes.

My point was that by not voting, you're hindering a town's ability to read you. (Vote analysis works for many players.) By saying that your FoSes are basically your votes, we can treat them as such and that analysis is back on the table. So, yeah, I'm fine with that.

[MacavityLock]

For the record, Kleptomafiac. WanderingSophist is a TSQ alt. Feel free to read the first few pages to see an exact replica of TSQ's play thus far.

[MacavityLock]

Did you forget what role I was in that game?

Have I called you scum at all yet because of it? No. In fact, I specifically said "Though it happens to be the alignment most useless for meta purposes." Right now, it's an IGMEOY.

[MacavityLock]

No I wasn't random voting to look protown, i was random voting for the sake of random voting.

You weren't being asked if you were voting to look protown, you were asked if it was one of your norms. Guilty conscience?

Unvote, Vote: Crywolf

.

Gorrad, did you or did you not see

But when you try to make the random vote look pro town, though that wasnt your intention...that to me looks suspect.

?

[MacavityLock]

Fairly neutral towards TSQ and dahill.

Why did you pick out these two people to mention specifically?

[MacavityLock]

Well, I'm personally waiting for MBF to answer my question, after which I will likely be moving my vote somewhere more useful. The big goings-on right now is Haterade-TSQ, which I think is smoke with no fire at the moment. However, I do agree with scot that Karne's "70% scum" statement about Haterade is rather high for this stage of the game.

[MacavityLock]

Haterade: More likely to be scum or town, at this stage of the game. Why?

Town. His misreading of your post seemed reasonable at the time, and his stubbornness thus far doesn't feel manufactured. I could certainly be convinced otherwise, but right now, I do not think a vote is warranted.

Thestatusquo: More likely to be scum or town at this stage of the game. Why?

What do you think of my original post in question? Did you think I was being combative? Why/why not?

If you think that my play in this game exactly mirrors my SK play, why haven't you voted me?

Town. I think your original post was a good way of addressing the situation as it stood, and generally agree with it. I think you were being a bit combative, but I don't see that as a particularly town-tell or scum-tell. As for why your replica of SK play doesn't warrant a vote, I do think you played a generally pro-town game in Klepto, especially at the beginning. I am currently reading your initial play in this game as a town-tell. I didn't specifically say that because I wanted to see reactions: yours and Gorrad's, as well as people who weren't in that game.

Don't just wait for a player who is inactive to answer questions. Be proactive, comment on shit. Get reactions. No one is going to play this game for you, and I'm not going to give you a free pass for not playing it either.

Oh don't worry, I will. I just don't want to tip my suspicions just yet.

[MacavityLock]

Fairly neutral towards TSQ and dahill.

Why did you pick out these two people to mention specifically?

Because they are two people that I've played with, and have been fairly active.

Really? dahill was fairly active when you said this? When you made this statement, dahill had made 2-3 substantial posts, and the most recent were very wishy-washy.

yeah i think TSQ's play being similar so far to his SK play is not much of a tell at all, as SKs have to scumhunt as well

she's [crywolf] not really scummy, but i would hardly clear her or anyone else as town at this point

It feels like commenting for the sake of activity to me.

When I saw MBF's comment, the "fairly neutral on TSQ and dahill" looks exactly like a "I should probably mention my scumbuddy/ies at some point" post. I know it's early to be talking about buddies, but that comment really set off my alarms. As I currently have a town read on TSQ, that would leave dahill.

dahill's iso post 7 is better, but it's still of the "meh, not much of an opinion so far" variety.

I'm going to

unvote, vote: dahill

for now, and drop a

FoS: MBF

.

[MacavityLock]

Macavity, why the vote for Dahill?

Like I said, he seems to be adding not much to the game right now. Most of his comments have been about what he considers null-tells, which seems like a kind of active lurking.

At the beginning of a game, I am 50% sure a person is scum. The extra 20% is not as big of a gain as I think you are making it.

Karne, a priori players are approx 25% scum, given most setups. Just because there are two possibilities, that doesn't mean its 50/50.

[MacavityLock]

Including my stances on TSQ and Haterade?

As far as I can tell, your stances on TSQ and Haterade are of that same "nothing interesting to add" ilk.

how about my comments towards Gorrad and kloud?

kloud is the only other player I think you've made a definitive statement about. As for Gorrad, have you mentioned him yet?

i don't see how that first statement (about TSQ) is wishy washy. it was a pretty clear stance that his being an SK was a nulltell, which definitely differed from others' views at the time. the second one about crywolf was intended to be neutral. i didn't see her as scum, but definitely not "clearly town" as TSQ said.

"Wishy-washy" is the wrong phrase. What I mean is that from your set of posts, I can't tell at all what your suspicions are. Your comments thus far have seemed to say that nothing interesting has happened here yet, which is untrue and I think a scumtell.

When I saw MBF's comment, the "fairly neutral on TSQ and dahill" looks exactly like a "I should probably mention my scumbuddy/ies at some point" post. I know it's early to be talking about buddies, but that comment really set off my alarms. As I currently have a town read on TSQ, that would leave dahill.

This is the part that I don't understand at all. so MBF decides to mention his scumbuddies...but TSQ is town...meaning I'm scum? This makes absolutely no sense whatsoever.

As I was re-reading and forming these opinions about you, I saw the MBF comment. Having the suspicion of you, his post stuck out like a sore thumb. There were other people talking about the crywolf situation at the time, not just TSQ and dahill. So, him mentioning you there seemed unnecessary without some other motive. This is reinforcing evidence, not primary.

[MacavityLock]

first, please point out where i've said nothing interesting has happened. as for who my suspicions are right now, it's true i haven't really made a set list yet because i'm still forming my opinions. i don't see how that's scummy.

Of course you never say that explicitly. That's the general feeling I'm getting from your posts, things that you think are mostly null-tells or slight town-tells. You're not scumhunting.

[MacavityLock]

Saying things are null-tells or town-tells is attacking validity of an argument. People are attacking Haterade for something, Dahill thinks what he is doing is a nulltell, so he is attacking the validity of the case against haterade. That is part of scumhunting.

beat me to it
exactly, would you (MacavityLock) prefer that i don't point out what i think are null/town tells? then you would just accuse me of lurking

Fair points, but that's basically saying that you've found little to nothing suspicious so far, except for Gorrad's mild hypocrisy (which I disagree with by the way) and kloud's overuse of buzzwords. I still think my case is reasonable for page 6.

[MacavityLock]

Fair points, but that's basically saying that you've found little to nothing suspicious so far, except for Gorrad's mild hypocrisy (which I disagree with by the way) and kloud's overuse of buzzwords. I still think my case is reasonable for page 6.

and how is that scummy?
as i said i'm still compiling thoughts/rereading so their should be a vote soon. i don't really get why your tunneling in on me

So, if I just kept popping in to say "I've found everything thus far to be null," you wouldn't find that suspicious? Also, the "tunneling" argument doesn't work on page 6. It's just too early.

[MacavityLock]

of course i'm not going to be saying that the whole game. but as you said, it's page 6 there's still plently of time for me to find people scummy

I don't disagree with that. Did I ever say that my vote was going to stay on you permanently?

[MacavityLock]

No, I'm good. You'll know when I'm ready to vote for someone.

so you'll just spring it on us when you're good and ready?
seems anti-town frankly to hide your suspicions

Any particular reason you didn't call me out for the same thing? I did pretty much the exact same thing in

Don't just wait for a player who is inactive to answer questions. Be proactive, comment on shit. Get reactions. No one is going to play this game for you, and I'm not going to give you a free pass for not playing it either.

Oh don't worry, I will. I just don't want to tip my suspicions just yet.

[MacavityLock]

My apologies, but I'll likely be LA for under a week for midterms. Should be around, but won't be able to add a ton.

[MacavityLock]

Midterms is over, catching up now. P.S. Welcome farside, if you end up staying :}

[MacavityLock]

If she truly is active elsewhere, then this lurking is very disturbing to me.

FoS: crywolf20084

I agree with ckd. Did you not check this for yourself before FoSing? This is especially important since this basically counts as your vote.

Also, by FoSing CW, have you moved your FoS-vote off of Gorrad, or is it still there too? See, this is why never voting isn't particularly pro-town: ambiguities.

And out of the nine pages I've read like three...maybe.

Why?

[MacavityLock]

Didn't notice this until ML brought it up.

Why do you not notice things until I personally bring them up? This is like the 3rd time.

[MacavityLock]

I'm a Duck. A mason aligned with the town and i don't know what my mason buddy's alignment is...

Do you know your partner's animal type? If so, do you know it via pre-game talk or via your PM?

[MacavityLock]

noted that you [CK] answered my question to her [CW]

Not sure I understand how CK's response answered your question. How do you mean?

FOS: dahill

This isn't the first time Crywolf has said something that could be considered scummy, but you seem to be zeroing in on her scum-mason comment without actually giving an opinion on the claim itself.

Why do you consider this scummy?

[MacavityLock]

noted that you [CK] answered my question to her [CW]

Not sure I understand how CK's response answered your question. How do you mean?

because he gave an explanation for why she would want to lynch her partner. i don't get the confusion

"PM paraphrasing" is a reason she would want to lynch her partner? Still don't see it.

[MacavityLock]

well not reason but an explanation for why she would say something like that, which i didn't like because it was basically feeding words for cay

Interesting. I didn't read it like that at first, but I see what you're saying now.

[MacavityLock]

Also, by FoSing CW, have you moved your FoS-vote off of Gorrad, or is it still there too? See, this is why never voting isn't particularly pro-town: ambiguities.

CK, you have still not answered my questions re: Gorrad and your voting process in general.

[MacavityLock]

you seem to be zeroing in on her scum-mason comment without actually giving an opinion on the claim itself.

Why do you consider this scummy?

Because it allows dahill to talk about crywolf's role without talking about the flavor. If he says he thinks a non-frog is town, then he has to start attacking elsewhere. If he says he thinks a non-frog is scum, then he limits the number of claims he can make later.

There's something off about this answer that I'm having trouble exactly articulating. For example, dahill's not the only one who hasn't commented on the flavor. Also, there's kind of this assumption that dahill will have to claim/probably fake-claim at some point. The "attacking elsewhere" bit is odd too. Do you mean attacking a different person, or attacking a different aspect of cry's game?

The fact that you did not know that there were pro-town non-frog roles in this game indicates to me that you are either vanilla-frog or mafia.

2 really interesting things here:
1) Do we

know

that cry is town? All we know is that she's claiming pro-town non-frog.
2) How do you know all frogs are vanilla?

You know something here. Please explain yourself.

[MacavityLock]

There's something off about this answer that I'm having trouble exactly articulating. For example, dahill's not the only one who hasn't commented on the flavor. Also, there's kind of this assumption that dahill will have to claim/probably fake-claim at some point. The "attacking elsewhere" bit is odd too. Do you mean attacking a different person, or attacking a different aspect of cry's game?

Attacking a different person. He's already started in on Cry. If dahill gives her a pass, he'll have to begin a whole new case on somebody else.

I don't think it's a black and white thing, whether or not one should believe a claim. Asking about things not related to a claim, or related tangentially to the claim, is not a bad thing to do.

1) Do we know that cry is town? All we know is that she's claiming pro-town non-frog.

I believe she is town. If she were scum, it would take guts to claim a non-frog in a game that has not given us any reason to believe there are non-frog pro-town roles.

OK, time for an awesome hypothetical, with pictures: What if cry is a scum mason, knows that her partner is also a duck, but happens to be an evil VAMPIRE DUCK!

I don't see how that Duck flavor clears her at all. (Mmm... Duck flavor.)

2) How do you know all frogs are vanilla?

What makes you think they aren't?

Way to not answer my question. I don't know what relationship species has to power or alignment. I don't know, and I haven't made any assumptions. You clearly know something or made assumptions. What/why?

[MacavityLock]

Pay attention, dahill. I'm not clearing Cry solely for her flavor. I'm giving her a temporary pass because of how risky such a fake claim would have been.

what if she is a Duck but not town?

It is still a risky claim to make because there's no way to know that the town isn't entirely frogs.

This logic fails because cry is a mason.

I agree. While MBF's response at least seems logical to me, although I'm not sure why he attacked dahill1 as much as he did. I really think Gorrad is the scummier player so far.

How are MBF's responses at all logical? What is your case on Gorrad? Why is your FoS-vote still on cry? I'm getting more and more aggravated with your refusal to vote by the way.

As for cry's claim, I have a question. Are unconfirmed masons worth anything to town really? I can't see why it would be a bad thing for the mason partner to claim and give us his direct opinions on cry's night talk and play thus far.

[MacavityLock]

unvote, vote MacavityLock

for (A) instantly believing Cry's mason claim and (B) trying to flush out the other mason.

Well, that's hilarious. Think things through please.

A) A mason claim makes absolutely no sense for anyone not a mason or scum. It's very likely that a scum who claims mason without actually being a mason would eventually force one of their scumbuddies to claim partner. In no way do I think, nor have a said, that cry's mason claim clears her. But, yes, I 100% believe that she's either a mason or scum, potentially both.
B) I'm not trying to flush anyone out before people agree to it. Don't just vote me for making a suggestion. Give me a reason why it's a bad thing to out the unconfirmed mason partners now that one's been outed.

Note: the two points above are related.

[MacavityLock]

Well, they aren't technically votes so that I can be suspicious of multiple people at once. I believe I'm up to a HoS on Gorrad though. Just don't rely on the vote count. Is it that hard to read the thread and know who everyone thinks is scummy?

Votes and bolded gradiations of suspicion are very useful shorthand for knowing how you feel about everybody. Like, would you have mentioned that you've know got your HoS on Gorrad without me asking? What bumped him back above cry for you?

And do you think MBF's responses are illogical? Do you think duck wouldn't be a risky claim for scum?

Yes, a duck could be a potentially risky claim, but we really don't know, so you're playing outguess-the-mod if you read too much into it. I think making any conclusions based on that flavor is absolutely illogical.

Give me a reason why it's a bad thing to out the unconfirmed mason partners now that one's been outed.

Is this a serious question?

You'll know when I'm being sarcastic. Please tell me why masons that are not town-confirmed to each other are worth much more than vanilla.

[MacavityLock]

What do we gain from knowing who is the other alleged possible-scum mason? If we can't confirm him to be pro-town, we gain nothing by learning his role. He's just like everybody else: a possible scum. The only one who benefits is the mafia, because masons who can't confirm each other are no more effective than townies, and knowing who the masons are leaves them more opportunities to kill, let's say, a cop or doc.

As a general rule, Role revealing on Day 1 is a big no-no. Mmnkay?

It's a slight increase in scum hitting a power role vs getting potentially useful information, that being the partner's opinion of cry with respect to night talk. If the partner doesn't have anything horribly interesting to say, it's certainly not worth it, but if he does, then it very well could be.

Though, then again, the partner probably would have already said something if he had anything incriminating. Yeah, I'm kind of talking myself out of this, now. I don't think the downside is all that bad, but it's probably on the partner to decide if it's worth it, not everybody else.

Yes, a duck could be a potentially risky claim

Thank you, moving on now.

You're really good at selectively quoting to serve your needs, aren't you? Your conclusion is wrong, and there no getting around it.

[MacavityLock]

It's a slight increase in scum hitting a power role vs getting potentially useful information, that being the partner's opinion of cry with respect to night talk.

It's friggin' Day 1. How much useful information do you think he has? Seriously, you gotta be scum.

Yet again, you've pulled that quote out of context with the rest of my post.

Unvote. Vote: MBF

. Unfounded assumptions about setup that suggest additional knowledge, poor logic in terms of reactions to cry's claim, selectively quoting, skirting questions, etc.

[MacavityLock]

I am fine with a Karne lynch and not fine with a No Lynch. But some serious prods are in order.

Archon, still nothing to comment on?

[MacavityLock]

cry, similar to my other question: To your knowledge, did your partner know that you were a duck before you announced so to the thread? That is, did you tell him through night talk, and/or do you think he might have been aware of it via his PM?

[MacavityLock]

Gorrad's vote definitely disturbs me. First of all, I definitely think that assuming that neighbor (what I've been calling unconfirmed mason) pairs are suspicious solely due to their neighbor-dom is an outguessing of the mod. I do not think that we should just assume that at least one of the neighbors is scum.

However, given that Gorrad does think that, I think it's very suspicious that he would vote mainly for that reason and then not try to ferret out the other neighbor. If the assumption is that there's at least one is scum there, we would clearly need to know the partner pre-lynch in case Cry flips town. Cry is close enough to lynch that Gorrad really should have been looking into outing the partner if those are his really motives with respect to the neighbors.

FoS: Gorrad

.

If we do go down the route of lynching Cry, getting a partner claim is something we definitely need to discuss. As an un-partnered neighbor is just about equivalent to a vanilla, I think I'm for it.

As for Cry's lynch, I think her laziness/lurkiness throughout the day have been scummy enough, but some of the votes on her seem odd. dahill, is your case on her focused on the fact that she suggested lynching her partner? Having seen Gorrad and MBF's discussion on the metaphysics of neighbors, does that change your mind at all? I'd also really like to know why RR is voting her (I know he's LA at the moment.)

[MacavityLock]

Seriously Archon, explain yo'self.

[MacavityLock]

@mod

, request votecount.

[MacavityLock]

Gorrad, that's fine if you really believe that, but still doesn't explain why you didn't immediately request a partner claim along with your vote.

[MacavityLock]

Unvote. Vote: Archon

.

[MacavityLock]

ML, what are your thoughts on MBF’s posts 372, 370?

I don't think it's the worst I've seen from him, but I do agree that those posts are a bit suspicious. Both votes seem a bit going-along-with-a-wagon. I don't particularly mind placing your vote on a likely wagon target if you think they are scummy and you might not be around for deadline. I also don't mind having someone as your proxy vote if you won't be around for deadline. But doing both seems quite unnecessary, and yes, suspicious. Also, proxying your vote to someone you were just voting is really strange.

He also made the point about not wanting to expose the other neighbor even given his vote on cry. I very much disagree with that conclusion, as I already stated in my FoS on Gorrad.

Certainly nothing from MBF recently makes me want to lynch him any less. However, I think he needs to be around to claim if we're considering lynching him. It's a crappy way to get off the hook, so hopefully he does come back in some capacity soon enough.

Unvote. Vote: Archon

.

A reason, please.

401 and 410 are very WIFOM. (WIFOM: Making the argument "scum wouldn't do X" doesn't work because scum

know

that they shouldn't do X, so by doing X they look more townie. A simple example: busing and then saying "scum wouldn't bus.") 411 means you're probably scum. I'm happy with my vote.

[MacavityLock]

@mod

, you missed my unvote of MBF and vote on Archon.

[MacavityLock]

BTW,

@mod

, you missed my unvote of MBF and vote on Archon.

means that

Preferably ASAP, since he can just add a vote to me and get me lynched at deadline at the moment.

isn't true. Which is a good thing.

[MacavityLock]

Any reason you need to hammer? It doesn't do anything except save us maybe a few hours, right? I'd prefer to just leave the thread open and let the deadline do its work.

[MacavityLock]

Also. unless you're suggesting scum would have advance knowledge of the various town roles, you've just voted someone that appears to be confirmed town, since I/Crywolf claimed duck before this revelation to the town that ducks are town-aligned.

Thus,

vote: Gorrad

.

Yet another person to conflate flavor with alignment. I don't like it, nosiree.

[MacavityLock]

One assumes flavour is internally consistent. Which in this case, it is.

Except you're the only one who "knows" about said consistency. Which means you're not confirmed town.

After a re-read, I am only made more convinced that focusing on flavor is a scummy thing in this game thus far, as we have not yet found out what enemy flavor is. Therefore,

Vote: MBF

and

FoS: Izzy

.

[MacavityLock]

One assumes flavour is internally consistent. Which in this case, it is.

I also just realized that the flavor you've claimed is actually

not

consistent with what we know thus far. You've claimed pro-town neighbor who is a duck. Kloud flipped pro-town

vanilla

who is a duck. Yet more evidence that we should not be focusing on flavor yet.

[MacavityLock]

The fact that they are both town is good enough for me.

Red flag! We do not know Izzy is town. Explain yourself.

Also, do you think MBF is a better lynch today than Gorrad? If so, why?

I stated my case against MBF and as I just said above, I think that his focus on flavor day 1 is another point against him. What's your case on Gorrad?

[MacavityLock]

The fact that they are both town is good enough for me.

Red flag! We do not know Izzy is town. Explain yourself.

You said a pro-town neighbor and a vanilla townie were too different to both be ducks. I said that since they are both town, that is feasible enough for me. I don't feel that flavor like this would necessarily be affected by role and that alignment is the only thing I'm taking into consideration. I never said I knew she was town, I just said that I believe the theoretical situation of a pro-town neighbor and a vanilla townie being the same animal is feasible.

No, I just said that flipped vanilla duck and claimed neighbor duck creates at least some measure of inconsistency. Izzy's statement that "one assumes flavor would be consistent" does not fit well with her claim, and thus her argument doesn't hold up.

[MacavityLock]

Mafia is also a game of cut and dry analysis, and it's pretty obvious to me that since Izzy knew the townie flavor before we got any sort of confirmation on it, that makes her at least somewhat more likely to be a townie.

As we don't yet know what scum flavor constitutes, this is a bad argument. I refer you to my "vampire duck" theory from post 303, which has not been ruled out.

[MacavityLock]

If there wasn't a theory that makes Izzy a possible scum duck, or quite a few theories actually, she'd be confirmed rather than more likely innocent.

Fine, I see the distinction, but it seems that I value it less than others do..

[MacavityLock]

I missed the part where he really took a stand to defend Izzy, if there was one. I'm getting strong spectacur-y scum vibes from him. And that

vote scotmany

.

Explain case against scot more in depth than "scum vibes" please.

[MacavityLock]

Cay's roleclaim of a duck does not bother me even though it is not a frog.

I agree with this statement. I'm going to give Crywolf a pass for now and place my vote elsewhere.

I believe she is town. If she were scum, it would take guts to claim a non-frog in a game that has not given us any reason to believe there are non-frog pro-town roles.

I'm not clearing Cry solely for her flavor. I'm giving her a temporary pass because of how risky such a fake claim would have been.

Izzy is a duck, and ducks are more likely to be scum than frogs

Contradictions ahoy!

[MacavityLock]

Contradictions ahoy!

You know what the best part about giving somebody a temporary pass is? It's only temporary, and can be reversed as new information arises.

So what happened to change your mind on the flavor, other than a dead townie duck?

[MacavityLock]

Sorry, I've been quite busy, and it will only become more so over the next couple weeks. Right now, I'm checking in to say that I find Izzy's vote suspicious in that it a) entirely piggybacked onto someone else's case and b) was an L-1 vote without announcement of same.

Awaiting MBF's claim.

[MacavityLock]

Also, how would you know we would be in lylo? For us to be in lylo tomorrow following a mislynch, there would have to be four scum, something unlikely in a 12 player game.

For the record, a mislynch today almost certainly does mean LYLO tomorrow given 3 scum, unless I'm miscounting. Mislynch today + townie death tonight = 3 scum + 5 townies. Another mislynch + townie death would get us to 3 v 3, or game over.

Another note: If there is a single 4-scum team, we're in LYLO right now. I doubt this.

[MacavityLock]

MBF, just to be sure, you haven't actually claimed yet, right? Your play thus far has really seemed to be of the "do as little work as possible until under fire and then get engaged in the game." Maybe this is a lazy town style, but its just as much a valid scum style.

I also just wanted to quickly respond to what you brought up about me: 1) My vote on you day 1 was clearly building before your vote on me, and that post and vote was the tipper for me. 2) Me being on the easy lynch is crap. Day 1 I was the 2nd vote on Archon. Today I was the first vote on you, and the day isn't over yet. 3) I maintain that my dahill vote was reasonable for page 6.

Just to be sure everyone knows, I am busy and won't have a ton of time over the next couple weeks. I'll maintain enough to not be LA though.

[MacavityLock]

MBF's claimed vanilla.

Where?

Also, who is the dude with the good post?

[MacavityLock]

Interesting. The word "townie" to me does not necessarily read as vanilla. You might very well be right, but I'd like to hear it from MBF to make sure.

[MacavityLock]

2) Archon was easy to kill, and my wagon was building since day 1.

Your wagon has been building since day 1 because I built it.

Yes, I meant vanilla townie.

Yay, that makes me so happy!

The fact that you did not know that there were pro-town non-frog roles in this game indicates to me that you are either vanilla-frog or mafia.

When I read this on day 1, there seemed to be only 2 explanations: 1) That you were power-role non-frog, or 2) That you were mafia. That's why I was hesitant to vote you on day 1. Enough other evidence built up that I was pretty satisfied that you were scum. Now I'm sure of it. What you said above does not make sense coming from a vanilla non-frog. From your perspective, there should be no reason to think that a frog couldn't be a power role. Therefore, you have taken my scenario 1 off the table, which means you're scum. Someone hammer now please.

[MacavityLock]

At this point, MBF is twisting himself in knots with regard to his reactions to flavor throughout this game. Someone please hammer.

[MacavityLock]

Apologies, but I'll be very limited over the next week and a half. (Not enough for official LA, but see sig.)

[MacavityLock]

I feel good about the MBF lynch and will re-read for tomorrow.

Sorry for not being more prolific, entrance exams have begun.

[MacavityLock]

Due to exams, I haven't had a chance to catch up on this. The other two people I had an inkling of suspicion for yesterday were Izzy and Karne, but I definitely need to re-read before being willing to put a vote down.

[MacavityLock]

I feel good about scot, though Raging's point about giving scum day kill(s) seems like a quick reason not to address scot. you have never seen a game that a scum variant had a day kill?

Never ever, in all the 20+ theme games I've played in/read through. I guess it's possible, but entirely unlikely.

This is the BSG game I was in. Focus on the Cavil role: Scum with daykill that was made all the more worse by the fact that a sleeper townie actually carried it out.

This is not to say that I suspect scot any more or less due to the daykill right now, just showing that a scum daykill is possible and has been done before.

My last entrance exams were today, so I'll be trying to catch up over the next couple days.

[MacavityLock]

As I'm re-reading, the thing that sticks out to me most is CK's vote on MBF on day 2. He made such a big deal about using FoSes instead of votes that this deviation seems very odd. It looked to me like he wanted on that wagon to solidify that MBF would be that day's lynch.

RR also moves up on my scumlist. His targeting lurkers during the early part of this game was massively hypocritical. Also, Gorrad's iso 31 includes what looks to me like a classic scumbuddy FoS.

I don't want to vote just yet, because I do think there's a chance we're in LYLO.

[MacavityLock]

Apologies, turns out the last days have been more filled with end of term work than expected. Still, I'm pretty sure I'm the last person to post with any content :}

[MacavityLock]

So, I'm re-reading Gorrad. Other than recruit-via-nightkill, can you guys tell me other methods of recruiting mafia traitors? I have really come across many (any?) games with them before.

If it is recruit-via-nightkill, then there's an incentive for Gorrad to be rather nasty to his potential scumbuddies before getting recruited, so as to entice them to kill him. As such, a strong busing strategy seems pretty good. So, even though she's not at the top of my scumlist anymore, why are people (ckd) protective of Izzy?

I definitely think that either CK or RR should be today's lynch.

[MacavityLock]

Also: dahill, you say your next vote will contain a vote. Do you have any comment regarding whether or not we might be in LYLO right now?

[MacavityLock]

Also: dahill, you say your next vote will contain a vote. Do you have any comment regarding whether or not we might be in LYLO right now?

Just re-read my post from last night. That should of course read "dahill, you say your next

post

will contain a vote."

[MacavityLock]

I never said we shouldn't be lynching. I don't think No Lynch is a good option. I wanted to know if the fact that we might be at LYLO would make him more hesitant to vote or not. Clearly not.

I want to hear how CK responds to the open questions before putting a vote down.

[MacavityLock]

The above.

[MacavityLock]

OK, term is over, and I'm back.

MacavityLock, what other questions have been posed to me?

The thing I'm most interested in right now is for you to talk about why your broke your meta and chose to vote MBF yesterday.

[MacavityLock]

Well, it put him at L-1 or L-2 I believe, which is, judging by the title of my thread, still within my meta, technically.

Also I was extremely sure he was scum. I was wrong, but extremely sure. The fact I usually wait for the hammer but voted early is something I do in order to draw attention to the case. If I'm voting you before the hammer, I'm extremely sure you are a scum and it is a sign that something is up.

Given the directive you'd provided about how to treat your FoSes, would your FoS on MBF have accomplished the same thing? Why, or why not?

[MacavityLock]

Prodded, bleh. Neither of my two suspects have posted since I last did. This is getting frustrating.

[MacavityLock]

This is really aggravating. We (or at least I) need CK and RR to post like now.

I have a hard time thinking that either dahill or ckd are substantially more or less scummy due to this debate. I think ckd is wrong about the whole thing, but I could see it as a misinterpretation + attempt to scumhunt.

[MacavityLock]

Well, it put him at L-1 or L-2 I believe, which is, judging by the title of my thread, still within my meta, technically.

Also I was extremely sure he was scum. I was wrong, but extremely sure. The fact I usually wait for the hammer but voted early is something I do in order to draw attention to the case. If I'm voting you before the hammer, I'm extremely sure you are a scum and it is a sign that something is up.

Given the directive you'd provided about how to treat your FoSes, would your FoS on MBF have accomplished the same thing? Why, or why not?

CK has still not answered this question.

RR needs to freaking post.

[MacavityLock]

1) RR/Xyl and Citizen Karne are my top two scums right now. I mostly agree with dahill on his RR case, though I would add that Gorrad's interactions or lack thereof with RR seem about right for a Gorrad-traitor/RR-scum scenario. (Though I will admit that I've never been in a game with a traitor.) I also think that RR has been trying to confirm Izzy too much, by equating her claim of duck with kloud's flip of duck. Note that Izzy has claimed duck-mason, while kloud flipped duck-vanilla.

CK I haven't much liked all game. I think his cases are weak, I think the breaking of his "no voting" meta was an attempt to solidify the wagon on MBF, and he's been avoiding questions recently.

2) Both lynch reveals surprised me, though MBF definitely more than Archon. In retrospect, Archon was typical VI, but during day 1 his play was lazy, lurky, and I thought that his iso post 12

What do you mean a duck? is this actually a part of the game?

was a scum-slip.

As for MBF, I definitely thought I caught a scum-slip when he talked about all frogs being vanilla. (Given the flips thus far, this is not true.) I thought he focused too much on flavor when flavor seemed (and still seems) to have told us nothing about the setup. He went back and forth a number of times as to whether or not Izzy was more or less scummy due to her duck claim. And there were links to Gorrad.

3) I agree with dahill that those are the most relevant things to occur thus far.

[MacavityLock]

After bringiong everyone's attention to his own meta, on Day Two, he made a post which included this:

Vote: mikeburnfire

even though I'm not hammering. That's how sure I am.

So, the argument is that the vote for MBF, who flipped town, was a scum tell because in making the vote, he violated the principles he said he operated by earlier in the game.

This is not the entirety of my argument, but it's close.

I don't see anything in there about hammering without question

While he didn't say he would hammer without question, he seemed very excited about being able to hammer.

Any reason you need to hammer? It doesn't do anything except save us maybe a few hours, right? I'd prefer to just leave the thread open and let the deadline do its work.

I like hammering.

[MacavityLock]

Note also CK's sig:

Games are slowing. No one wants to hammer for fear of a mislynch. MS needs a savior. They look for Rosso to save them, but alas! he is nowhere to be found. So one man will step up and take his mantle. Fear not MS, the hammer cometh!

Again, I don't think that's scummy in and of itself. But the way he's talked about that bit of his meta, and the way he actually FoSed and voted to me adds up to scummy.

[MacavityLock]

I'm not refusing to answer them, I'm just not doing it until he's read the game.

And how is that any less of a delay tactic than anything Xyl is doing?

[MacavityLock]

I'm not refusing to answer them, I'm just not doing it until he's read the game.

And how is that any less of a delay tactic than anything Xyl is doing?

Izzy, please answer this.

Also, CK needs a prod or replacement. I love the fact that my two top scum candidates vanished off the face of the earth.

[MacavityLock]

Izzy, could you elaborate on your read on CKD here?

My past experience with CKD is that he's rather prone to making questionable judgments and drawing illogical conclusions when town while gettign tunnelled on issues that are of minor importance at best. I don't see his play in this game as being inconsistent with that.

While I can understand that argument in terms of his recent play (re: dahill), but how does it apply to the post that Xyl mentioned? (That is, the post where you posted a sentence or two about all players from day 2, well before the ckd-dahill stuff.)

[MacavityLock]

Negative. There is a very pro-town reason to be opposed to doing your work for you - namely, that it prevents you from playing as lazy scum and simply coming to concllusions based upon other people's answers which you can then blame them for to avoid suspicion if we were to lynch a town player. Frankly, the fact that you asked those quetsions before reading a game is scummier than my refusal to answer them until you've read it.

Also, this is bull. It assumes that people can't figure out whether or not Xyl is being lazy by following others. If Xyl ends up spouting my exact suspicions back to me, I'll find that just as scummy as someone who did the same thing without replacing.

[MacavityLock]

@mod:

Due to CK's disappearance and Xyl's recent replace, this is an official request to delay the deadline.

[MacavityLock]

Quote pyramid hacked together for ease of reading. I didn't change any content, I promise.

curiouskarmadog - Behaviour consistent with past experience of CKD town play. Probable town.

Izzy, could you elaborate on your read on CKD here?

My past experience with CKD is that he's rather prone to making questionable judgments and drawing illogical conclusions when town while gettign tunnelled on issues that are of minor importance at best. I don't see his play in this game as being inconsistent with that.

The more I think about it, the more I think this is a clear scumtell from Izzy. While the "illogical conclusions and tunneling" read on ckd is totally reasonable right now based on his interactions with dahill, it wasn't when Izzy posted her quick reads on everybody on day 2. I double-checked, and I don't see anything from ckd on days 1 or 2 that would fit. Therefore, it seems obvious to me that Izzy was making stuff up then and tried to find something to say now that would fit when Xyl asked about it. I don't know if this scumtell has a name, but I'm going to call it "backfill". And Izzy backfilled.

Vote: Izzy

P.S. Thanks Shanba.

[MacavityLock]

Was thinking the RR/Xyl had to be scum until Dizzy's recent posts.

There's no reason they can't both be scum. Scenario: Xyl-scum asks his buddy Izzy a seemingly innocuous question that could likely be answered reasonably and un-scummily. She responds with (to me) something very scummy. Neither Izzy nor Xyl respond to my accusation, even though Xyl has been posting elsewhere on site.

I'm not sure if this is what's going on or not, but this is to say that Izzy's increased scumminess has not decreased Xyl/RR's in my book.

[MacavityLock]

Xyl and Scot, any comment on my catch on Izzy?

[MacavityLock]

At ML: I think your whole backfill thing is a slight stretch. Maybe I'm not quite understanding what you were getting at.

curiouskarmadog - Behaviour consistent with past experience of CKD town play. Probable town.

When Izzy wrote this on Day 2, it meant "I think CKD is town due to meta reasons."

My past experience with CKD is that he's rather prone to making questionable judgments and drawing illogical conclusions when town while gettign tunnelled on issues that are of minor importance at best. I don't see his play in this game as being inconsistent with that.

When Izzy wrote this on Day 4, it meant "The meta I have on CKD is that his town play is consistent with illogical conclusions and tunneling."

On Days 1 and 2, CKD's play did not include illogical conclusions and tunneling. This is an opinion, and of course YMMV, but I really don't think it existed at all in his play on Days 1 and 2.

The meta on CKD that Izzy has was not justified on Day 2, while it is on Day 4. As the meta that she states did not apply, she was therefore fabricating a reason to call CKD town on Day 2. (I haven't yet decided whether Izzy-scum here makes CKD more or less likely to be town, so don't ask.)

[MacavityLock]

...why are people posting if the deadline's passed?

Shanba should have updated the thread title, but

Yeah, I lost internet connection yesterday or I would already have been trying to find a replacement for citizen karne. I've already extended the deadline once and don't particularly wish to do so again, but I understand replacements need some time to bed in and its better to get a replacement before phase changes anyway. So y'all get an extra week from when I find a cit karne replacement.

So, now you've got tons of time to respond to my accusation :}

[MacavityLock]

I must say, we're all using our extra time really well. <grumble grumble grumble>

Xyl and Scot, do you still not see what I'm saying re: Izzy?

Izzy, any response?

CK, anything at all?

[MacavityLock]

Difference of opinion is the simple answer. You're interpreting his earlier behaviour differently. Part of the confusion, I think, is that when I say he tunnels, I don't just mean on people - in my experience, CKD can also tunnel on particular questions or occurances even when they seem unimportant or irrelevent (in my opinion, obviously). He certainly seemed to do that throughout this game - he's spent a fair bit of time concetrating on particular things and repeated his quetsions a fair few times.

Please provide examples from Days 1 and 2.

[MacavityLock]

I agree with Xyl on the above.

[MacavityLock]

SensFan replaces Citizen Karne. Deadline is exactly a week from his first post.

I'm hoping that due to the above, Sens is trying to make his first post a good one.

[MacavityLock]

Don't forget, we're not just waiting on Sens. Izzy still has yet to provide the examples I asked for.

[MacavityLock]

It has now been a

week

since I specifically requested the examples from Izzy. She has posted on site since then, though not since Thursday. This all only makes me more suspicious.

[MacavityLock]

I'm here. I have nothing new to add at this time. Waiting on Sens and Izzy.

[MacavityLock]

Sens is clearly trying to run out the clock on this day without actually doing anything. He's posting in other games and everything. Izzy will manage to avoid a lynch by having a broken computer. Color me ridiculously frustrated at this game.

[MacavityLock]

4 to lynch, 3 to lynch at deadline. If there is a tie at three votes, then there is a no lynch.

14) At deadline, a majority of a majority is sufficient to lynch. For example, with 12 players, 7 would lynch normally and 4 will lynch at deadline -> the player with the most votes over four is lynched. However, if there are two players on the same number of votes, the player who reached the tie level first will be lynched.

Yeah, this is definitely a contradiction in the ruleset. By Rule 14, Izzy would be our lynch by hitting 3 votes first. By the rule posted in the votecount, we'd have a No Lynch. Clarification please!

[MacavityLock]

MacavityLock expressed some support for a CKD lynch.

Um... where?

[MacavityLock]

No matter what Xyl is, town or scum, it's pro-Xyl. I don't see it as a scumtell.

Sens, you haven't even acknowledged the fact that we're 1 day from deadline. No excuses.

We really need clarification from mod on the rules.

[MacavityLock]

@mod

, request votecount with "who would be lynched assuming nothing changes".

[MacavityLock]

That's what I thought, but I'd prefer to have mod confirmation on that.

[MacavityLock]

Yup, no vote from me yet. Is there any reason to believe that Sens's absence was anything but a game tactic? (Serious question.)

[MacavityLock]

do you usually misrepresent facts in other games?

I don't think I'm misrepresenting them in this one.

would you like examples?

I would.

*I purposely posted no content before deadline

Give us a pro-town reason for this.

[MacavityLock]

ML, its because I felt the odds of me being NK'd were about zero, so I might as well not give Scum the chance to know how I felt, when they were deciding on their kill last night.

But you did read the game? Given people's suspicions of CK and you, why did you think it would be better for you

not

to be nightkilled?

[MacavityLock]

I thought about this a bit more. It only makes sense from SensFan's point of view if you assume that

he didn't care who was lynched

. Then he would have no reason to say anything, and his argument about denying information to the scum would work.

I agree. It's basically saying that scumhunting yesterday was worth less than scumhunting today. Given that we didn't know whether we were in LYLO or not yesterday, this is pretty damning.

[MacavityLock]

FYI, I'm moving tomorrow, so I don't expect to post much until the 2nd (assuming no internet issues).

[MacavityLock]

Ok, back from moving. Waiting for Shanba I guess.

[MacavityLock]

Bleh, I've come to the conclusion that I am horrendous at scumhunting. I thought I had good solid tells on all 3 of the mislynches, and during the last day, I don't think I would have considered voting for either CKD or CDB. Great job guys. Now I'm going to go crawl into a corner.

[MacavityLock]

Oh, and thanks Shanba for a good game. Do you mind posting the roles? I don't think I've ever seen a Vote Condenser before, and I'd be interested to know what it does.

[MacavityLock]

Honestly, the more I've been thinking about it, the more I think it might have been a scum advantage to have the Traitor, given that there were fewer connections for us to make so as to identify scum. Though I have no idea how I would have played that role, since you actually need to try to lynch the towniest people to feel comfortable. How would the game mechanics have worked if Gorrad was the only scum left?