Mini 754 - Frogs Mafia Game, Set and Match.

[dahill1]

Okay, confession time #2.

Question 2 in my list of three questions ("Did any of the role reveals surprise you?") was a ringer of sorts. I didn't ask it to learn the answer, I asked it to see who would answer it at all. It's something scum would have to lie about, but it a rare enough question that scum wouldn't know what the "right answer" should be. I was hoping that scum would be afraid of the question and dodge answering it.

On that basis, curiouskarmadog (who answered question #1 but skipped #2 and #3) and DizzyIzzy (who is refusing to answer my questions at all) look pretty bad. I'll concentrate my read on them.

That's a pretty big assumption to make IMO. There were some pretty obvious answers to that question so scum don't have any reason to avoid it really.

[Xylthixlm]

*shrug*

It's not a perfect test, but it gives me somewhere to start.

[DizzyIzzyB13]

That's a stupid approach, Xyl. I'm not refusing to answer your questions. I said I would answer them when you finish your re-read. You completely invalidate any point to your approach by announcing what you intend to do before the point at which I'd said I'd answer your questions, suince now there's no way for you to test whether I was trying to avoid answering or, y;'know, actually sticking to the principle that you should be reading the whole damn thread. Nice work, scum.

[dahill1]

Ckd, it appears that I'm your top scum candidate at the moment..but you're not voting for me. In fact, you recently just unvoted me. Any reason for that?

[dahill1]

Izzy: Yes, he should read the game and it looks like he is, but:

I'm not refusing to answer them, I'm just not doing it until he's read the game.

And how is that any less of a delay tactic than anything Xyl is doing?

[MacavityLock]

I'm not refusing to answer them, I'm just not doing it until he's read the game.

And how is that any less of a delay tactic than anything Xyl is doing?

Izzy, please answer this.

Also, CK needs a prod or replacement. I love the fact that my two top scum candidates vanished off the face of the earth.

[Xylthixlm]

mikeburnfire - Scum. Should be hammered.
Gorrad - Also scum. Needs lynching.
dahill1 - Seems consistently productive. Lean town, don't rule out scum playing well, though.
curiouskarmadog - Behaviour consistent with past experience of CKD town play. Probable town.
Raging Rabbit - Lean town-aligned idiot. Play is more stupid than scummy.
scotmany12 - Tunelled on Gorrad. Good target, though. Lean town, possible scum, particularly in the unlikely event that Gorrad flips town. Also potential serial killer if we have multiple scum groups, though I think that's unlikely.
MacavityLock - Productive. Forward thinking. Lean town.
Citizen Karne - Productive, if misguided. Weak town lead, possible scum.
Thestatusquo - Potential third scum. Null read so far, potentially scummy behaviour today could be due to personal issues. Still.. my favoured target for member #1 of a three man team.

Mmm.

Izzy, could you elaborate on your read on CKD here?

[Xylthixlm]

That's a stupid approach, Xyl. I'm not refusing to answer your questions. I said I would answer them when you finish your re-read. You completely invalidate any point to your approach by announcing what you intend to do before the point at which I'd said I'd answer your questions, suince now there's no way for you to test whether I was trying to avoid answering or, y;'know, actually sticking to the principle that you should be reading the whole damn thread. Nice work, scum.

Your "principle" is stupid and scummy. There is no protown reason for you to not answer until I finish reading; it's just a stalling tactic.

[Xylthixlm]

regarding Haterade, i'm actually getting a slight town read from what i've seen of his play before. once he makes his case, he pretty much sticks with it even if it doesn't make the most sense. not saying he's right about TSQ, but i don't think he's scum just because he made a bad case.

dahill has town reads, good.

thanks for the link

if i recall correctly i haven't been in a game with a traitor in it, but my assumption was just based on from other games i had seen in passing. also, debating whether my intentions in finding gorrad's traitor crumb were pro-town or not is useless due to the many many factors involved. did scum even know there was a traitor? did the traitor know the scum? and so on and so forth..

as for izzy, i'm just doubting myself because i really didn't like crywolf's day 1 play even though izzy herself has been better. on that note, i will try to stop tunneling as much and look into others.

thoughts on others:
MacavityLock - I am getting a pretty good town reading on him based on his play so far. i agreed with most of his cases/points on days 1 and 2 and he does a good job of just elaborating himself in general. Hasn't been posting much lately, but none of us have really so that's pretty much a nulltell for everyone at this point in the game.

Citizen Karne - I dislike the whole FoS instead of voting thing but that's just personal preference. I did find it kinda weird that he broke his own rule and voted straight out early on yesterday. i think his most recent "slip" comment towards me weak, but I'm probably biased. One post of interest was his Post 225 when he answered my question directed towards Crywolf. This may not seem like much at first, but the more I think about it, the more it gets at me. For reference, I was asking her why should we want to lynch Archon/Haterade if she had a nulltell on him at the time. CK blatantly came up with an explanation for why she would have said that which stuck out to me as feeding her an answer. I realize that this is situational but it really bothered me.

Raging Rabbit - Probably the scummiest out of the remaining players at the moment. He really needs to contribute more and as opposed to the only recent influx of lurking, he has been lurking all game. I never did like the scot case which ended up boiling down to "flying under the radar and not giving a case on gorrad" both of which were false. RR then mentions how Scot could be doing this same kind of tunneling on MBF-town, and

in the same post

calls Gorrad and MBF scum. So scot was bussing

both

(assuming there are 3 total) of his scumbuddies, huh? This post in general is pretty wishy-washy

Curiouskarmadog - I think we played together in Mafia 75 (?), in which you were town. IIRC, you were pushing very adamantly for your cases which I'm not seeing as much in this game. He's been focused a lot on Citizen Karne so far this game but I don't know what to make of it what. I mostly agree with his above post and I do think that him kickstarting this game back into motion gives him some pro-town points. Still mostly undetermined

@CK and ckd: I'd like to see some games of you, if any, as scum because you guys are the two I have the most neutral reads on at the moment. Thanks in advance

Still working on reading through Gorrad's posts so my next post should contain that and also a vote while I sort out my thoughts

Analysis post from dahill. Looks reasonable.

dahill, what are your current thoughts on Izzy? You seemed suspicious of her earlier, and it seems like that just faded away.

[Xylthixlm]

Right, all caught up. I don't feel like typing a novel right now, so I'll try and make this brief.

Izzy is totally town, it continues to baffle how half the town wants to lynch her. The duck goes a strong way towards redeeming her in itself, and her behavior since replacing in I see as genuine town. Only thing standing against her is her predecessor's early game behavior, which was good for a page 4 wagon but isn't much to look at now.

Scot is probably scum. He's spent the entire game flying under the radar, in a way that feels very intentional to me. He's been emptily declaring that Gorrad's obvscum for ages now, with no real case to back him up. It should be obvious to Scot that this style of posting isn't gonna make anyone change their mind, so continually demanding Gorrad's head is a good way to give out the illusion of participating. Also that allowed him to dissmiss Izzy, who seemed like the obvious (mis)lynch at the point he called her wagon BS. He could easily be doing the same with MBF-town today.

However, MBF himself is pretty scummy, for all (well, most) of the reasons everyone's already mentioned. I'm sorta wavering on the hammer, though, since the strongest thing he has going for him is that I think that if he and Scot were buddies, the right move for Scot would clearly be to hammer - so my TSQ suspicion doesn't settle well with my Scot suspicion, which leads me to the conclusion that one of them's almost surely scum, but probably not both. While the data on both is about equally incriminating imo, Scot gives me terrible vibes while some of MBF's recent posting feels genuine (though it isn't past him to fake such posts). So the lynch today should be either of these two, but I prefer Scot - and even if I won't succeed in getting others to agree, I want more feedback on him before I start to consider a hammer.

Gorrad is also quite scummy, and I can easily see him as partners with either of the above. He's the most to blame for the ridiculous Izzy-hate (I'd like to stress out again how much the "but one neighbor HAS to be scum!" WIFOM sucks), and hasn't done a whole lot else other than subtly defend MBF and actively lurk.

Another guy I'm uncomfortable with is CKD, but I can't really tell why - other than that his behavior reminds me of his play as scum in 12 Angry Men, for some reason.

My reads on everyone else range from neutral to strong town, and I don't think it'd be to the town's benefit for me to go to further detail on this atm.


Phew.

Reading this post with the knowledge that RR/me is town, I see the typical conflict of a player who thinks that X is scummy and Y is scummy but X and Y can't be scum together (in this case, scotmany and MBF). I haven't looked at the whole MBF lynch yet, but I gather a lot of people were surprised by his flip.

Calling out Gorrad as scummy appears to have been a correct catch, notable since RR's other reads were "neutral to strong town". Gut read on CKD is notable especially because it fits with what I'm feeling.

[DizzyIzzyB13]

Izzy, could you elaborate on your read on CKD here?

My past experience with CKD is that he's rather prone to making questionable judgments and drawing illogical conclusions when town while gettign tunnelled on issues that are of minor importance at best. I don't see his play in this game as being inconsistent with that.

[DizzyIzzyB13]

I'm not refusing to answer them, I'm just not doing it until he's read the game.

And how is that any less of a delay tactic than anything Xyl is doing?

Izzy, please answer this.

In my case, the delay is an unfortunate side-effect rather than the motivation behind action or inaction.

[DizzyIzzyB13]

That's a stupid approach, Xyl. I'm not refusing to answer your questions. I said I would answer them when you finish your re-read. You completely invalidate any point to your approach by announcing what you intend to do before the point at which I'd said I'd answer your questions, suince now there's no way for you to test whether I was trying to avoid answering or, y;'know, actually sticking to the principle that you should be reading the whole damn thread. Nice work, scum.

Your "principle" is stupid and scummy. There is no protown reason for you to not answer until I finish reading; it's just a stalling tactic.

Negative. There is a very pro-town reason to be opposed to doing your work for you - namely, that it prevents you from playing as lazy scum and simply coming to concllusions based upon other people's answers which you can then blame them for to avoid suspicion if we were to lynch a town player. Frankly, the fact that you asked those quetsions before reading a game is scummier than my refusal to answer them until you've read it.

[Xylthixlm]

Izzy, could you elaborate on your read on CKD here?

My past experience with CKD is that he's rather prone to making questionable judgments and drawing illogical conclusions when town while gettign tunnelled on issues that are of minor importance at best. I don't see his play in this game as being inconsistent with that.

Have you ever been in a game where he was scum?

[Xylthixlm]

In my case, the delay is an unfortunate side-effect rather than the motivation behind action or inaction.

I hope you understand that no sane townie will take your word on what the motivation was.

[DizzyIzzyB13]

No. I haven't. I would also point out that the post you're referring to came before MBF flipped town, and thus I'd adjust CKD's likely towniness downwards based on the shortinging probablilities that he is scum. Regardless, he's certainly not acting in an inconsistent manner with my experience of CKD town.

[MacavityLock]

Izzy, could you elaborate on your read on CKD here?

My past experience with CKD is that he's rather prone to making questionable judgments and drawing illogical conclusions when town while gettign tunnelled on issues that are of minor importance at best. I don't see his play in this game as being inconsistent with that.

While I can understand that argument in terms of his recent play (re: dahill), but how does it apply to the post that Xyl mentioned? (That is, the post where you posted a sentence or two about all players from day 2, well before the ckd-dahill stuff.)

[Xylthixlm]

Negative. There is a very pro-town reason to be opposed to doing your work for you - namely, that it prevents you from playing as lazy scum and simply coming to concllusions based upon other people's answers which you can then blame them for to avoid suspicion if we were to lynch a town player. Frankly, the fact that you asked those quetsions before reading a game is scummier than my refusal to answer them until you've read it.

If you were thinking that I might be lazy scum and do what you said, you should have answered, let me try, and called me out for it. Instead you go for the alternative that provides less information about

both

our alignments. Smells like a rationalization to me.

I'm not even going to start on "asking questions is scummy"; you should know better than that.

[MacavityLock]

Negative. There is a very pro-town reason to be opposed to doing your work for you - namely, that it prevents you from playing as lazy scum and simply coming to concllusions based upon other people's answers which you can then blame them for to avoid suspicion if we were to lynch a town player. Frankly, the fact that you asked those quetsions before reading a game is scummier than my refusal to answer them until you've read it.

Also, this is bull. It assumes that people can't figure out whether or not Xyl is being lazy by following others. If Xyl ends up spouting my exact suspicions back to me, I'll find that just as scummy as someone who did the same thing without replacing.

[dahill1]

Posting from iPod so sorry if I'm brief.

@xyl: I did recently say I've started to become less suspicious of izzy but that was before the whole her refusing to vote thing. Her strategy is way more hurtful than helpful. I'd put her as a third on my scum list behind ckd atm. I can elaborate more once I get to a computer if you want me to

[Xylthixlm]

I'll just do everyone, ckd.

dahill1-40%
I agree with most of what he's said, and what I don't agree with has been stated reasonably. His argument with MacavityLock really strikes me as town.

kloud1516-40%
I personally have no qualms with what he has said regarding "textbook scumtells" and think his analysis so far is pro-town.

Thestatusquo-40%
I like how he handled the situation with Haterade and the SK meta.

curiouskarmadog-45%
Your play is consistent with what I have seen in the past. Knowing you, your stance on my "over-defense" comment gives you a slight town edge.

Raging Rabbit-45%
Nothing substantial, but I feel I'm getting more of a town read from him. I agree with most of what he's said.

mikeburnfire-55%
His posts are too vapid for my liking. I would like more commentary from him.

MacavityLock-55%
I think his argument against dahill1 is weak. For what he calls out dahill1, others have been worse offenders.

scotmany12-60%
The fact he stopped responding to my posts rubs me the wrong way. I also think he was unreasonably hostile to RR and kloud.

crywolf20084-65%
I'm alright with using dice if you always use them, but apparently she doesn't. She also explicitly stated she wanted to "avoid angering" anyone. I didn't join in the discussion earlier because I was under the impression she always used them, but when it was pointed out that she doesn't, the whole thing was shown under a new light for me. She's also actively lurking to a degree.

Haterade-70%
I've stated this enough, I think.

Gorrad-75%
Active lurking, hypocritical comment to Haterade (which, surprisingly, Haterade didn't respond to), and the whole avoiding-confrontation-with-TSQ thing at the beginning has given me scummy vibes from the start.

As for lurking: it skews it towards neutral. For example, I almost always have around a 50% on killa seven. I think of lurking as a null-tell usually unless a player only starts it when under pressure. Active lurking adds to your percentage.

I hope this helps, ckd, and, even though you do not subscribe to this particular way of thinking, I hope you can at least understand me better now.

March 15 scumlist.

Citizen Karne does not defend

anyone

at all the entire game. The only place he calls someone town is in his scumlist, and that tops out at 40% town. I wish I had a more recent scumlist here. I also wish CK was around to answer questions.

[Xylthixlm]

I just noticed that both nightkilled townies (kloud and TSQ) are ranked at the towniest spot on CK's list. Might be nothing, might be important.

[MacavityLock]

@mod:

Due to CK's disappearance and Xyl's recent replace, this is an official request to delay the deadline.

[scotmany12]

I just noticed that both nightkilled townies (kloud and TSQ) are ranked at the towniest spot on CK's list. Might be nothing, might be important.

Analyzing night kills like this is so riddled with wifom that it is best to leave it alone.

[curiouskarmadog]

going to update today or tomorrow...I know deadline hits tomorrow.