Mini #682: C9++ (Game Over!)

[mykonian]

I don´t know if this was the way to start... Though the setup invites you to do it. And I´m not directly believing germy´s claim, so I don´t want anyone else to claim. Could be mafia, giving some useless info away to get the last bits of information they needed to determine the exact setup. Yet the lynch of germy could be the worst move we can make, there is a big enough chance he will be NK´ed.

[mykonian]

BTW

vote nightwolf

for being below me in the list, and because I don´t like wolves, esspecially at night.

[mykonian]

I can do the maths behind this, but I won't do it too much. It says something about the probability of a setup to happen, it doesn't say what the setup is. I would agree with one sort of claim: Miller. It helps town a lot, and the miller self too.

I think the setup will reveal itself when the days get by. And I don't think the information what the setup is would help us day 1.

[mykonian]

we can have 4 roles with no letter: T, so I don´t think we are certain we have at least 5 vanilla. theoratically, we could have 12 minus 4 minus 2 times 2 minus 3 is one vanilla. This setup has no certainties, only probabilities.

Well Germy, it would surprise me if he is scum. He is too eager to find out the setup, yes. I don´t know if someone played with him, but it would be a weird move for scum to start day 1 that way. I don´t want germy to react on the following, but from what I guess, it isn´t the smartest move to NK germy. Also not to lynch him.

I'm not entirely sure if I believe germy's claim because it seems all too easy for him to be scum and make a WIFOM argument of "The scum is obviously trying to find full power roles, so they are not interested in night-killing me" to explain his survival of each night.

Do you really believe we are that stupid, or you are. I don´t think germy would survive that way, without anyone noticing it. Let´s see if he does that after the first night.

[mykonian]

ok, a series of weak things that are in favor of germy:

what scum would try to get all the attention from his first post?
germy didn't in his other game.
germy could think it beneficial to town to say he knows 2 letters. At least.

weak things against germy

rolefishing
semi claim day 1, without pressure.

did I miss something?

[mykonian]

Vote: Germy

I appreciate all of the info but come on. You made this game all serious and stuff with your fancy mathematics. I am here to have fun. Take a chill pill, (for now) vote randomly, and watch as people childishly overreact to the random voting.

or we could scumhunt instead...

you are right. Random voting shouldn't be a goal at itself, it is just a way to get the day started. Starting discussion can be done by random voting. to deny there is something to talk about, and random voting is weird. I admit I did random vote, but it is less important then discussion, about whatever small point. So imagine we've just passed the random votes

[mykonian]

springlullaby, why change your vote?

[mykonian]

@All: Question, what is the down side to a mafioso claiming miller? Mykonian asked for a miller claim, which I'm not really for or against, but I was just wondering what keeps the mafia from doing this.

Getting the spotlight on them?

I don't like all the people that jumped on germy, for what is bad town play, but could hardly be a scumtactic. However, the third vote, nightwolf explained himself, so I think he deserves an

unvote nightwolf

. The second vote from Edify wasn't explained to my satisfaction, well Edify kind of wanted it to look like a random vote.

vote Edify

. And Kairyuu was the first one, hardly scum bandwagoning, and provided reasons for his vote.

[mykonian]

If this is a gambit, he is going to be cought. Every day, every night information streams in about the setup. Would be a very weird move. I don't see the potential for a "great move".

[mykonian]

Am I wrong when I say you are not today's lynch? 2 of your three mafia I can agree with, but not with myself.

To put my point very simple: I think your play was antitown, yet not scummy. You can say that yourself, and it will be called wifom, if I say it, maybe someone listens.

[mykonian]

Vote: Germy

I appreciate all of the info but come on. You made this game all serious and stuff with your fancy mathematics. I am here to have fun. Take a chill pill, (for now) vote randomly, and watch as people childishly overreact to the random voting.

or we could scumhunt instead...

Seemed to me like a reasonable post: He said what I thought. Edify didn't want any discussion on germy, he just wanted to start the day again. Springlullaby doesn't like Sakinj's reply, and votes without a reason. After I ask the reason he comes up with this:

Because I didn't like sekinj post.

1. I don't see her walking the walk.
2. I don't see contradiction between scumhunting and random voting.

I think Sakinj made a valid post: discussion helps more in hunting scum. Random voting, is what it says it is: random. It maybe helps you a bit, but talking helps way more. Edify says: "I don't want to talk yet, let's random vote". I think you have your vote there for the wrong reasons spring. And now we wait for a slightly longer post from Sakinj.

There is one person with us that actually likes germy's claim. Afatchic. Defending a towny, or not? So if he is lynched you can say: I told you. I don't like germy's claim, most people didn't, and they gave reasons. You didn't.

And what about chuck? He seems to repeat "what if he (germy) is scum" and has said at least one time he doesn't think germy scum.

I don't know about the others.

[mykonian]

@afatchic: I love it when the scum react in exactly the way I expect. To answer your question, here is what I'm saying:

okay

i like the first post my germy. i don't think he is giving the scum to much info, since most likely they have a good idea about the roles already.

and i also don't think it was a bad idea to come out with it since from what i got out of his post, it wouldn't be a good idea to NK him N1.i also agree that miller should claim now and it may help catch a scum early on.

Bolded: You issued a blanket statement saying that germy's initial post was good, that you agreed with it, and that you liked his ideas.

i actually like the claim like that, however i don't think any other backup roles or anything should claim, but i still think miller should claim.

and i don't really like how a couple people have attacked him because they think its more useful to the scum. all it does is give the town a better idea of the setup, since the scum should already have a good idea about it since they already know 1/4th of the roles. while it does give them a better idea later down the road on who a backup role might be,

i don't think it hurts that much right now. and if he does get targeted tonight, then thats fine since a backup role is just a vanilla until the real PR dies.

Bolded: You suddenly move from "I agree with what germy says" to "I liked the claim, but I don't like everything he wants us to do, so only millers should claim." A number of people had said by this point that germy was wrong, and that backups shouldn't claim because it would help the scum, so you say that you now don't think that backups should claim. But they had also stated that miller claims are a good idea, so you decided it was fine to continue agreeing with that part.

Italics: I can't believe I didn't see this before. That is exactly the attitude that lets scum skate by. Just because something doesn't hurt the town 'too much' or 'right now' does not, in any circumstance, mean you ignore it, especially with something like germy's idea, where it is quite clear that while it has no major negative effects (but no real positive effects either) on the town

right now

, there will be a time, in a game day or two, where it can mean the difference between a town win and a scum win.

And your bit about it not mattering if a backup is NKed because they can't do anything yet, that is one of the most antitown statements I have ever read. Killing a townie is

never

a good thing, and suggesting that it's fine to kill a backup power role because they don't have their power yet is like saying that you want to lose all investigative power if the cop dies, or lose all protection power if the doc dies.

Not thinking ahead is a major mistake that scum make, and it leads, more often than not, to them suggesting a scenerio in which the town's chances are severely reduced, and then getting caught for it. I think you made that mistake.

I'm also just

loving

the fact that you turned your vote on me from random OMGUS to full out OMGUS just because I made a case against you. I am about 80% sure you are scum right now.

Confirm vote: afatchic

for revealing even more scummy actions when called out on the first ones.

Nice case against afatic. I got the feeling that he was defending a towny to not look like scum when germy would be lynched. It made me suspicious that he didn't do it with valid reasons. And his not thinking ahead is indeed a major scum tell. He says a backup role isn't that important now, but that role is just as important as a cop or a doc when such a person dies. Every town that is lynched or NK'ed is bad for town, and loosing power roles is even worse, no matter if they are backup roles!

However, my vote is on Edify, and I won't get it off him until he explains his vote. therefore:

FoS afatchic

.

ps nightwolf: I have no problems with that amount off posts, if you keep them this long.

[mykonian]

there is one who agreed with you, without giving good reasons. However, he could be scum too.

[mykonian]

Let's wait till day two before we start to talk about a SK. Then we may know if there actually is one.

[mykonian]

still waiting for sakinj to post something interesting, so I can react with something interesting. I think I have made up my mind about germy's posts now, and I have told what actions of what persons I don't like, but that is everything.

[mykonian]

*really, really wants a miller claim*

otherwise our chances for a cop are small...

*imagines a town full off mafia, rb's and vig's*

brrr

[mykonian]

I dislike mykonian's last post a lot, I don't see any point in it. Myko, would you care to explain what purpose it served?

ahh, someone abbreviating my name the right way! I can see why you didn't like my last post, because it kind of said nothing. I did the maths, from that I deduced that our chance at having a cop would be low. Having a miller would give the certainty of a cop.

remind, and I hope that is the last thing I say about the setup, that this setup doesn't need to be fair. most times it will be, but a town full of roleblockers and vigs would be fairly weak against a full mafia and maybe a SK.

My problem was that I wanted to post something, but didn't know what too. To answer your question directly: it serves little purpose, if it did, it was to tell you about my fear that there is no cop.

The case against afatchic is looking better and better, but I don't know what I can say more then I said about it. I hope Edify will come, but if he is replaced my vote will go to afatchic.

[mykonian]

Let's see, the case against afatchic. Then it seems I actually did something, and it may clear up something.

post 35: likes germy's claim, says germy wouldn't be a good NK, following me in that. He also thinks millers should claim, and also likes random voting. this post is typical, because 3 out of 5 sentences have the word also in the start, and the first agrees with germy. Afatchic has little thoughts of himself...

post 44: still likes germys claim, still thinks millers should claim, doesn't like people attacking germy. says it doesn't matter if germy gets NK, backup is plain vanilla till the real power role dies.

post 64: still likes germys claim, defends against accusation that he was just latching on and backing off when germy went under fire. Doesn't like how he is called a good lynch.

post 70: defends against the accusation that he knows how many scum there are. says to artem:

so yeah i think you had the same thought process that i went through.

also he didn't remove his random vote, whether that had to do that the random vote was on the person that made a case against him, or not, I don't know, but I see my greatest suspect. He is too much defending a towny, for little reason: (he defends a likely bad play), he is looking a lot for buddys, and has no real opinion apart from defending germy and defending himself.

confirm FoS afatchic

. As soon as I know that Edify can't give me any answer, or gives me a reasonable answer, I'm going to vote afatchic.

[mykonian]

I could, and I can still see why sakinj reacted like this. But you are wrong with your analysis about me. Germy attacked 3 players, and I was one off them. The person I voted for was the second, and in your debate with springlullaby I could see your point, and thought spring's actions questionable. So 2 of the three germy picked out, where already suspicious to me. I didn't follow him, maybe he followed me.

[mykonian]

unvote scigatt, vote afatchic

[mykonian]

unvote scigatt, vote afatchic

Why?

Nice case against afatic. I got the feeling that he was defending a towny to not look like scum when germy would be lynched. It made me suspicious that he didn't do it with valid reasons. And his not thinking ahead is indeed a major scum tell. He says a backup role isn't that important now, but that role is just as important as a cop or a doc when such a person dies. Every town that is lynched or NK'ed is bad for town, and loosing power roles is even worse, no matter if they are backup roles!

However, my vote is on Edify, and I won't get it off him until he explains his vote. therefore:

FoS afatchic

.

ps nightwolf: I have no problems with that amount off posts, if you keep them this long.

Let's see, the case against afatchic. Then it seems I actually did something, and it may clear up something.

post 35: likes germy's claim, says germy wouldn't be a good NK, following me in that. He also thinks millers should claim, and also likes random voting. this post is typical, because 3 out of 5 sentences have the word also in the start, and the first agrees with germy. Afatchic has little thoughts of himself...

post 44: still likes germys claim, still thinks millers should claim, doesn't like people attacking germy. says it doesn't matter if germy gets NK, backup is plain vanilla till the real power role dies.

post 64: still likes germys claim, defends against accusation that he was just latching on and backing off when germy went under fire. Doesn't like how he is called a good lynch.

post 70: defends against the accusation that he knows how many scum there are. says to artem:

so yeah i think you had the same thought process that i went through.

also he didn't remove his random vote, whether that had to do that the random vote was on the person that made a case against him, or not, I don't know, but I see my greatest suspect. He is too much defending a towny, for little reason: (he defends a likely bad play), he is looking a lot for buddys, and has no real opinion apart from defending germy and defending himself.

confirm FoS afatchic

. As soon as I know that Edify can't give me any answer, or gives me a reasonable answer, I'm going to vote afatchic.

My vote on Edify has no use anymore, so I'm moving to my biggest suspect, for reasons above. The way I read afatchic's posts can be wrong, like sekinj says, but could he explain to me where I'm wrong, and how? Till then, I think I have a well reasoned vote.

[mykonian]

hey, that's smart. Have been doing that wrong. Thank you. And now we wait for afatchic to defend himself.

[mykonian]

I don't think this talking between artem and Kairyuu is getting us anywhere. Loads of talk about small stuff, without clear things that could tell if one of them is scum. Nice to read, but it isn't helping us.

The way I see it, it is more of a reaction against Kairyuu agressiveness. He attacks a few people hard on small things, and you think it is too much, overdone. I think it is his way of playing, and that it is his way of searching scum. You've got to admit, his attacks at least brought some action into this game, and it is also a fact that his attacks made people defend, and people react. Go look for information in that.

[mykonian]

I think this is a bad idea. Let's leave afatchic making his mistakes first, but if his thinking matches your assumptions, then post it. It could be good for afatchic, but it is no use to defend him with assumptions he didn't come up with. It only provides a basis for scum-lies, and he should make them up himself, so we can test them.

[mykonian]

Scum is laughing, and keeping quite.

Face it guy's. You have been arguing for some time now. Put up some good attacks, defended yourself fierce (someone being overdefensive has NEVER been a scumtell). Let's use some WIFOM: Do you really believe one of you is scum, making such a show, day 1? no way. The way you guys are playing is town, arguing is in favor of town, and you have done it well. But tunnelvision is dangerous, and I have to warn you for it, because esspecially day 1, where you don't have a lot to go on, keeping an open mind is important.

[mykonian]

first of all, I´m not a kairyuu. I tend to look around, and make my cases slowly esspecially on day one, but try to get good things to vote on. I think only that same aggressive kairyuu got on a bit earlier on afatchic, but I think the reasons I give for voting are not all posted by someone else, and are valid. And the "scum is keeping quite" thing: it is more that artem and kairyuu are screaming, while I think them both town. I don't have a good feeling who are scum, but they aren't screaming too.

and germy,

don't change my words

: I strongly disagreed with springlullaby's play against sekinj, I posted that, I think? You are searching for reasons to vote me.

[mykonian]

ok, germy, if i agree with sekinj, and sekinj is attacked by springlullaby, it means i disagree with the attack of springlullaby.

I never said that I agreed with springlullaby

. That I don't attack him furiously for that doesn't mean I agree with him. It is more that I keep it in mind, but that I think it isn't even close to a reason for a FoS.

I hope this clears things up. Afat, please explain me why my vote is wrong. People say they have reasons to believe you aren't scum, but I don't see them.

[mykonian]

*feels embarrased*

I'm sorry. I usually forget to look at it.

[mykonian]

I think afatchic made too strong of an assumption about Germy's alignment.

(this is not an attack) does this make afatchic town? Couldn't he be scum trying to defend a town player?

And I´m also attacking afatchic. And yes, because he is the easiest target. Off course I do, I attack the person that is the scummiest (read: easiest to attack).

[mykonian]

Hi Ku_F! Do you still remember me?

[mykonian]

@mykonian: I resemble that remark . I don't like the fact that you say you are building up your cases slowly, but haven't given the town any of your thought processes while you are doing it. A townie should always keep what they are thinking out in the open, even if he is attacked for it (-waves at everyone-).

I have provided you with all my thoughts. It is only that on this moment, it is hard for me to convince myself someone is scum, and that way I don´t suspect a lot of people on this moment.

[mykonian]

ok. I misunderstood. Blame my not too good English for it. And no, although I have feelings on you, kairyuu, germy, afatchic and sekinj, and I mentioned them, I don´t have much to go on. Feeling quite uncertain. And at the moment, I read the first post of afatchic as scummiest of all, that´s why I vote him. But if anyone can explain why I shouldn´t, please do. I haven´t found reasons not to vote afatchic.

It is not that I don´t want to scumhunt, it is that I know how easily I can be fooled, how easily I can vote town for valid reasons.

in short. Day 1 is horror.

[mykonian]

BTW where is afatchic?

[mykonian]

Kairyuu isn´t looking for the cop. If there is a cop, which I doubt, choose your own play. Let´s keep Kairyuu alive for one day. I think I follow what he is doing and I think he could be right. Also afatchic is now officially lurking.

[mykonian]

And I don´t have the feeling Kairyuu can explain it well.

Although he is right in his feelings toward afatchic. I think afatchic should be our lynch.

[mykonian]

which is indeed a bad play. But the way I read Kairyuu, lynching him is also a bad play. I know what I´m going to say is wrong, but this I what my feelings are.

I think Kairyuu has a powerrole. He either is a power role and hopes that germy is his backup, or they are masons, or he is the little girl. He is too confident in that sentence, where you accuse him of godfatherness. I think it is too obvious.

So my play would be: let Kairyuu live, not investigate him, and see what day two brings. If afat is scum: no problem, if he isn´t, lets hear Kairyuu´s story. I´m afraid Kairyuu is a powerrole that is hesitant to claim day 1.

[mykonian]

1. I think indeed afatchic is scum. If so, it would kinda clear Kairyuu.

2. if afat isn´t scum, Kairyuu promises us a story. I want to hear that story. Good story, we let him live, bad story, we lynch him. But I repeat, don´t investigate him as cop, because if Kairyuu is scum, it probably doesn´t matter.

3. Look at Kairyuu´s play. I don´t know how he usually play´s, yet the whole thing screams town to me. If I were scum, day one wouldn´t be the day to make a lot of noise, to attract attention, and if I´m a godfather, I wouldn´t ask for a investigation day 1. It doesn´t fit. Same counts for Artem.

I want to look at Kairyuu again day 2, because then we have all the information necessary to decide on his lynch. The lynch, maybe the nightkill clears something, and Kairyuu´s story. It could stop us from lynching a power role.

[mykonian]

I don´t want him to claim. I think we know more tomorrow. His post kinda promises that. I don´t claim, I explain what I think about his post. I think you misinterpreted it. That way, this game is going the wrong way and I want it to stop. That was what my post was about.

I don´t see much use in claiming day 1. And if we can prefend that, I´ll be happy.

[mykonian]

And I do know this is a wrong play by me, but the way the Kairyuu thing is going is just plain wrong. And germy, because we don´t have enough wifom, if I were scum, wouldn´t I be bussing my mate in stead of defending him at this point? And what I say, I don´t think Kairyuu asked to be investigated, that is the whole point. You aren´t reading my posts.

And no, I can´t say the wine is in front of me. If it is, I´ll say it tomorrow. Today, Kairyuu wouldn´t be my lynch.

[mykonian]

The way I read it, Kairyuu promises a sound defense. So yes, good story means a little girl, a claim, something like that.

[mykonian]

Call it rolefishing...

Lynching a power role is worse. I think he is at L-2 now.

[mykonian]

I, and the Town

weren´t you and the town in the same group?

[mykonian]

I think most people guessed Kairyuu´s mason buddy right. It wasn´t a very good play by me.

So yes, I´m a mason.

[mykonian]

I´m sorry, but I´m not going to unvote you yet. My vote wasn´t on afat because he lurked, but because of his posts.

[mykonian]

Is this the classical scummy `oh, I was wrong` post? Still you keep all the options open, and basically you say nothing.

[mykonian]

I don´t understand what you are saying. I found that post scummy. For reasons given.

[mykonian]

Is it usual to claim as mason partner? I assumed it, but if it isn´t I wouldn´t have defende Kairyuu this way.

[mykonian]

we have a 9% chance on a cop, if everyone is believed.

that means: 4 things are known, and there being no masons. I did the maths close after germy semi-claimed. I posted my doubts about the setup, in a half joke post. That means, it was posted as a joke, but the message was serious.

[mykonian]

germy claims that his role uses 2 signs out of 7
we do too
There is no miller

that means 0 2 or 3 C´s are possible. 0 C´s is slightly above 90 %.

[mykonian]

Ohh, yes, my vote stays. Certainly not liking that post by Scheherazade. It´s like: I´m a towny, and now I´m going to pick a target where that I can accuse of something.

basically, someone picks out a nice target, searches for all the things that can be used against that person, and mentions in the middle that she is town.

This screams ´I am scum` to me.

[mykonian]

Be happy, around page 15 town also thinks there had been enough content. So they post rubbish. Only a few interesting posts per page there.

[mykonian]

germy, plz vote for the most certain scum first, and then his/her partner. You make less mistakes that way.

[mykonian]

allright. Good explanation

[mykonian]

Don´t you think the reasons to like this claim are a bit weak. If he is scum, this could be a tactic to look town after germy would have been lynched. And these were in my mind the most important posts he posted.

[mykonian]

ok SP. Defensive is indeed how you could call me. I have no point where I can start. I tried it with all the the votecount on page 9. From that, and the post around that, CF was also a suspect, but it was only a feeling, never could really explain it. Your case also doesn't look very strong, but you also suspect him. Could you explain it more?

And I'm against lynching a lurker. That has never been a reason. More the tactic he seemed to try in his first posts, and his weak reasoning. I thought I had posted somewhere what all the points against afatchic where. Not much has changed, apart from zade's post. Esspecially her first post wasn't the strongest. Afat is more a target because I really don't have any better.
I'm getting more of a list of people I think town, but that is of no use. I don't think there is any reason to post that.

And I think you are right with me having some tunnelvision problems.

[mykonian]

My earlier case against afatchic. The last things I accused him off. He didn't post much after this.

Let's see, the case against afatchic. Then it seems I actually did something, and it may clear up something.

post 35: likes germy's claim, says germy wouldn't be a good NK, following me in that. He also thinks millers should claim, and also likes random voting. this post is typical, because 3 out of 5 sentences have the word also in the start, and the first agrees with germy. Afatchic has little thoughts of himself...

post 44: still likes germys claim, still thinks millers should claim, doesn't like people attacking germy. says it doesn't matter if germy gets NK, backup is plain vanilla till the real power role dies.

post 64: still likes germys claim, defends against accusation that he was just latching on and backing off when germy went under fire. Doesn't like how he is called a good lynch.

post 70: defends against the accusation that he knows how many scum there are. says to artem:

so yeah i think you had the same thought process that i went through.

also he didn't remove his random vote, whether that had to do that the random vote was on the person that made a case against him, or not, I don't know, but I see my greatest suspect. He is too much defending a towny, for little reason: (he defends a likely bad play), he is looking a lot for buddys, and has no real opinion apart from defending germy and defending himself.

confirm FoS afatchic

. As soon as I know that Edify can't give me any answer, or gives me a reasonable answer, I'm going to vote afatchic.

in his first post (why are you using a womans name? sorry for the times I called you a she) zade said:

That Kairyuu was a big suspect,

Then he goes for Sekinj. Some valid points, some hunches, and some things that can't be called a point. It made a case, and a large case, but to me it was more a case that was sought. It rather confirmed what I thought. I really would have unvoted with any normal post, but this was scummy to me. His further post were quite neutral.

[mykonian]

so I was too convinced. That´s fine. The way you put it there, it was a mistake. Tomorrow I´m going to look if I can find some other scummy players. As I said, CF was on the list, and so is Spring. I think I need another one... But the people where that one should come from aren´t talking that much. And this doesn´t mean there are 4 scum, more that it is far from impossible, that afat and CF aren´t scumbuddies.

[mykonian]

I've looked at CF his posts. I can't find anything weird. I don't know where I got the feeling from, but his posting seems good. Bit low on information maybe.

Spring is different. I don't like her first real action against Sekinj, as Sekinj pointed out something that I think was true. This goes for a few posts. After that she thinks afat scummy,but votes artem for meta reasons. and he stays with that. she also came up with an other reason. Artem would have preemptive OMGUS voted Kairyuu. They accused each other for pages, and you come up with an OMGUS vote, even and OMGUS vote before the other person actually voted, because artem would expect Kairyuu to vote him? Everybody could see it coming that they would vote eachother. And both had pages of reasons. You don't for your vote. You were looking for reasons.

[mykonian]

I´ll be off for the weekend, and before anything happens that I don´t want I

unvote

[mykonian]

Spring is becoming my top suspect. she is a bit hasty, and uses a weak reason to vote Artem. This also from the fact that she thinks Kai confirmed. Still she kept her options open in case SP would make a case against us. Weird. she is also attacking Kai a bit, so it is not that weird she would vote for one of us.

I get the feeling that she does all this also to stay of Sekinj's wagon? Still see mentions she doesn't like Sekinj's posts. From this I guess that at least one of zade and CF are scum. Let's see day 2 for that. After this, Spring is gone for some posts.

I'm opposed to a Sekinj lynch. I don't think the reasons to vote her are strong, and I got a very pro town feeling about her, which I'm not going to explain, because it is mostly a feeling, and for reasons possibly even weaker then the reasons to vote her. I'm not a fan of zade, CF, Scigatt, and Spring.

I

vote spring

, for reasons stated above, and for plays I didn't like before, but that I haven't reread.

[mykonian]

I get the feeling that she does all this also to stay of Sekinj's wagon? Still see mentions she doesn't like Sekinj's posts. From this I guess that

at least one of zade and CF are scum

. Let's see day 2 for that. After this, Spring is gone for some posts.

The italicized is

if

Spring is scum correct?

actually no. It originated somewhere before, and is more or less a startpoint for my thinking. I looked how everything fitted in, but there are a lot of uncertainties, off course I don't know if it is true, but it is the only hold I have today. Day two has some real evidence, this is only guessing, based on assumptions. The less assumptions, the better the guess...

And spring: considering Kai confirmed, and saying that some other person confirmed Kai is exactly the same thing. You did use the word confirm, in stead of a more neutral word, like to say someone to be town, or something.

[mykonian]

I'm not going to just eenie-meenie-minie-moe it either like myko seems to be doing (not a good sign, btw)

I see I'm accused of something. I don't know exactly what. I have said what my thoughts were. My first suspect is Spring (where my vote is). My second suspect is zade, third CF. After that I get uncertain. I'm won't vote today for Kai, Artem, Sekinj. I feel they are the wrong way. Kai is mason, had a very long discussion with artem, loads of information there. For that, Artem is off my list today. Also the arguments against him are far from convincing. Sekinj has done some town things in my mind, and I feel she is an easy target for scum. She hasn't posted that much usefull things, and now everything she says is looked at as scummy. Following from the above, this seems scum driven to me.

Like here

sekinj, since you are around, mind replying to my 367 beside in joking?

I dont' know what kind of response you want. I obviously don't like that you want to lynch me... I think you are wrong and misguided...

1.'Wrong and misguided' are word characterize a townie, if you think that of me, why are you voting me then?

2.In the post, I have addressed other questions to you (bolded text). I'd also like you to react to answer to your suspicions.

Here words are misused by Spring in here first point.

And CF, Most of it I get from your and zades/afatchic reaction on Kairyuu (a certainty, so a starting point for thinking), and it has nothing to do with interaction between you and zade/afatchic. More how you react on what happens around you, esspecially Spring, Sekinj, and the Kairyuu-Artem thing. On this moment, this theory is what I'm sticking with till day 2. Then I can test it.

[mykonian]

1. Kairyuu is confirmed, so nothing changes, Sekinj is most suspected player, and I told my feelings about artem already.

2. Wifom based. Gut feeling, only a bit of fact, but enough to put Artem slightly positive for me.

3. The damned Kai-unvote. She was the only one that was uncertain. I didn't expect scum to do that. That will keep my vote from her today.

4. the misuse of sekinj's words is that it is clear that sekinj thinks Spring scum. She posts an argument from spring is wrong, and spring misuses the words Sekinj used to say that Sekinj says she is town. Sekinj never stated she thought spring town.

5. No, it is the way of voting, and the reaction on the discussions Kairyuu had. So it originated earlier. In fact, it isn't scummy to be suspicious of Kairyuu and me. I thought I only called spring on that, as she only followed SP.

6. I doubt you are buddies on the moment, but from my thinking one of you is scum. That you go the same way would seem weird to me for two scum.

There have been a few important things till now: germy's claim, Artem-Kairyuu, The case against Sekinj, the little collision between spring and Sekinj in the start, and maybe I have missed something. People chose sides, for various reasons. I wouldn't expect all the scum to choose for one side. And I would expect there reasons to be weak. The fact that you and CF move with eachother makes it hard to see from this point who of you is it.

An example: on the votecount of page 9:

Votecount #8!

Kairyuu (5) - afatchic, CF Riot, Artem, sekinj, germy
afatchic (2) - Kairyuu, mykonian
sekinj (1) - wolframnhart
Artem (1) - springlullaby

Not Voting (3) - alvinz95, Ku_F, Scigatt

7 to lynch.

From my assumptions (feelings and small facts) I thought Artem, germy and Sekinj slightly more town. Sekinj indeed being the weakest of them. Assuming 3 scum, and assuming scum would be on the wagon (what I'm quite certain of) you and CF remain. I have to say, from this point Sekinj is far from confrimed, because you and CF are on a weird spot for scum to be on a wagon.

Springs vote for Artem was far from great, so I found my next scum. The not voting people are suspicious too, just because we haven't a lot to examine from them. And yes, I know this isn't evidence, but this can be tested day 2. Spring has been acting scummy because of the weak votes she places, the weak reasoning behind it, the turning of words, the slightly active lurking etc.

And be honest, afatchic's play wasn't great, and so was your first post. It fitted in. CF also hasn't had an optimal play, is very uncertain (or wants to look what savest place for his vote will be).

[mykonian]

3. yes, that is what I thought. I really didn't expect it. And yes it is WIFOM.

5. afatchics vote was a random vote on Kai turned into a real vote when he got under attack from Kai. Not a very strong move. Unvoting was natural, but really choosing a target and going after it could be a scum move. A towny should keep his/her eyes open, and go with his suspicions all around until he or she found a very good target. So I don't know if this was good.

7. or to state the question differently, are you scum or town? I tend to see you as scum, so it would be an excuse to vote her. Off course there is no certainty here.

8. The most evident side Afat chose, was to defend germy and his claim. On that moment I thought he did it to seem town in case germy was confirmed. He chose sides against Kai (because artem didn't attack him? Doesn't need to be, artems play was also good, possibly better then Kai). He never reacted on the spring-sekinj thing (was a small thing)

9. it is saver for scum to wait with voting. That way they can go with the flow and follow the town. Therefor, scum tend to vote later (certainly a point against Sekinj) on the bigger wagons.

[mykonian]

people that vote first for a person, or second, are usually asked a lot for reasons etc. Later people can sneak in more, as public opinion favors them. Less reasons needed, ideal for scum. So yes, that is the problem in my theory so far. That is also a reason why you and CF aren't my top suspect, but spring. He is scummy enough for himself, and he fits in.

[mykonian]

Ok, spring, the first question you asked me, why it applied to you? It doesn't. I vote you for reasons earlier posted, scummy votes, scummy behaviour. It has nothing to do with you, but weakens my case on zade and CF

Now to CF. that votecount. I assumed some people to be town, also Artem and Sekinj for play reasons. I certainly don't know if the last one is right but today I'll stick with what I found in favor of her. I'm sorry to have insulted you. “Not optimal” doens't mean bad, just not perfect town. I don't know where I got the feeling from that you were cautious. Did I confuse you with someone else. I'm sorry anyway. And I have time to change to my second biggest suspect if I want, and be reunited with Kai. I will however NOT vote for Sekinj.

And what is Scigatt doing? Haven't seen him a lot, he posts a small post, votes for a nulltell, and is out again. Weird.

Complot? For the more experienced players, can this be an action to divide town just before the lynch?

[mykonian]

I don't know if it can happen, and I'm certainly not experienced, but could it be a good scum tactic to act scummy just before deadline to divide the town? In that case Scigatt's post makes sense, when he is scum. If such thing never happens, Scigatt's post is just senseless.

Or is it simply bussing?

[mykonian]

Complete case on Spring

post 15: random vote CF
post 31: not that random vote Sekinj
post 34: explains her vote, doesn't like Sekinj her post (that pointed out to someone that the day had started and random voting was a bit useless, esspecially if you don't want to discuss.) Doesn't see Sekinj “walking the walk” (in post 34, page 2)
post 38: says it isn't quite a random vote.
Post 39: doesn't understand a setup thing.
Post 53: repeats that she didn't like Sekinj's post.
Post 55: because she isn't scumhunting
post 60: repeats that she didn't like Sekinj's post, explains something about her feeling about Germy
post 90: doesn't like the setup talk, and a kind of mass prod post.
Post 99: asks Sekinj what her suspect is.
Post 116: chooses Kai in Kai-Artem votes artem, doesn't like afat, stays on Sekinj. So: following town
post 117: asks what germy thinks of afat.
Post 118: says he is repeating himself, when he reread (yes you do!)
post 168: says Kai is asking for the cop to investigate him (no he doesn't!)
post 186: wants Kai to answer, and not me.
Post 190: thinks germy scummy, gives no reason.
Post 191: repeats post 186
post 210: prod post
post 220: mass prod post
post 244: prod post
post 245: has found something to reïnforce his case on afat (if there is any). A “scum slip”.
Post 247: wants to wait with posting, till inactive people post.
Post 277: retracts post 245, wants a fast lynch, is ok with lynching lurkers and he has found an other toy to justify his vote on Artem: the pre-emptive OMGUS. Two people, giving pages of reasons why the other is scum and they themselves aren't and all he can think of is an OMGUS-vote. You still have no case on Artem.

from post 310 I thought this:

Spring is becoming my top suspect. she is a bit hasty, and uses a weak reason to vote Artem. This also from the fact that she thinks Kai confirmed. Still she kept her options open in case SP would make a case against us. Weird. she is also attacking Kai a bit, so it is not that weird she would vote for one of us.

I get the feeling that she does all this also to stay of Sekinj's wagon? Still she mentions she doesn't like Sekinj's posts.

And she hasn't left Artem. Conclusion: two cases that were very weak, coming up with “reasons” to reïnforce her present case. On the moment a new player enters and gives new possibilities, she keeps her options open.

PS: SP I like your avatar! I wouldn't change it.

[mykonian]

Scigatt, since when is talking about talking about the setup a scumtell? This is ridiculous.

[mykonian]

First, people learn, second, if I get this right: Artem was in two different situations, first where it is used against him, second where he uses it. In the first case, off course he is going to say the argument doesn't hold, even if it did! So the first case doesn't tell you how Artem feels about the argument, therefore

you still don't have a case on Artem

. You are half of the game on Artem, without a case, and coming up with several complete illogical reasons along the game to reïnforce your nonexistant case.

[mykonian]

what you call a case is:

meta that artem is playing like a newby.
the preemptive OMGUS. (OMGUS is a countervote WITHOUT any other reason).

I don't call this a case. I don't think artem plays like a newby, and I think meta alone is no reason to vote someone, like you did. The preemptive OMGUS doesn't apply here, as there was loads of arguing before Artem voted. There were reasons to vote Kairyuu.

And now you say that you can say that Artem didn't lie when he got attacked by that argument and said that it didn't hold. He was scum, and got attacked: if he can say that an argument doesn't hold, he will, off course. So you have a weak meta based case on Artem, where I don't believe your meta. Even if I did, meta can never form the whole case.

What is going to be your strategy? do you stay with artem, even if it is a lost case? Do you change to zade, therefore creating some confusion? Are you going back to your other case, Sekinj? Are you going to bus a partner, maybe to clear them for the next day?

[mykonian]

I didn't post it to defend Artem, as I feel he doesn't need to it, and if he hasn't done by now, he has had enough time. This is more or less proving that most of the game, what you have done, apart from useless post, is picking a player, fabricating a weak case on them, and later on, find new "reasons" to reinforce your "case". These reasons haven't been too convincing. You have almost not looked at anyone except your target. That is scum play.

[mykonian]

and uncertainty is useless 1 day before deadline. On that point, you have to choose and go for it. Day two is for the new thoughts.

[mykonian]

because in the last weak you say to yourself: "I'm right about this, lets go for it." And hold it now please. Maybe Spring wants a last word... I would do it soon. And we have a day to think this over.

[mykonian]

it does. Now let's see what's happens.

[mykonian]

Even if the mod tell spring is scum, you know you are a target tomorrow.

[mykonian]

I'm on zade again. Don't think her opening post today is strong, and his and afat's play haven't been very confincing. To start this day:

vote scheherazade

.

And on his opening post: You could interpret it like this: why isn't he dead? we should have killed him... oh no, a doctor... Let's put them gently on the wrong track.

[mykonian]

zade, it would be a weak point on his own, so most times if I see it, and when it doesn't fit in, I won't tell it, but hey! there is more against you.

[mykonian]

mafia, isn't it obvious?

[mykonian]

germy, I will be looking at you. Later in the game... I don't exactly like your posts, yet I doubt you are scum.

[mykonian]

Bunch of new suspects for me:

Scigatt: what does he do? I don't hear a lot of him, and he enters the bandwagon on SL in a very weird (scummy) way. His only post today is one to defend zade.
Why aren't we suspecting SP? Yesterday he tried to spread some uncertainty, and today he continue's. Weak scum.

Sekinj isn't town to me, but neutral still.
CF is still on my list, he can't really confince me
Zade is on top of the list, together with scigatt.

[mykonian]

And I think lynching germy could be a very big mistake, as he can help town.

[mykonian]

going after artem now. And the way how he did it. SP was town to me before, but now I'm not that sure. Call it a mFoS. Also he says we shouldn't go after the targets of yesterday, because just before the lynch interesting things happened. Please tell me who is scum, then. Until then I call this a weak defense of a scumpartner under pressure.

[mykonian]

I worded it strange, but I'm far from going after Artem, it mend I thought it weird for you to do. And I don't say I'm right about who is scum, yesterday I was wrong. That doesn't mean I stop looking for scum and leaving it to you. I'm going to vote for the people I think scum, I will try to confince you of that.

You want me to choose new targets, because things happened before SL's lynch. Apart from Scigatt nothing seemed that obvious to me. (now I have to say Artems hammer wasn't strong). Were these the things you meant?

[mykonian]

unvote vote Scigatt

Finally, just because your predecessor didn't do it doesn't make it any less scummy for you to make up for lost time.

Making up time is scummy?

I don't have the time to do a reread of everything he says now, but I clearly remember this, and this is placing things out of context. I don't like it.

[mykonian]

unvote vote Scigatt

Finally, just because your predecessor didn't do it doesn't make it any less scummy for you to make up for lost time.

Making up time is scummy?

I don't have the time to do a reread of everything he says now, but I clearly remember this, and this is placing things out of context. I don't like it.

WHAT?
You can't read the thread, but since he's trying to, you find him scummy for that? That's just low....

No, I clearly remember what this was about: Zade mentioned a few times that he was town, when people reacted on that, his excuse was: "afat didn't do it for a long time, so that's why I do it a bit often". The sentence Scigatt picked out was the response.

Zade made a slight scumtell (posting a few times that he was town), so this sentence applied. You don't say it anyway, and when you do it a few times, no matter what your predescessor did, you act scummy.

By putting this sentence just bare, it seems very wrong IF IT IS ABOUT TOWN THINGS. Scigatt didn't post that it was about a scumtell.

[mykonian]

I unvoted and voted Scigatt in post 539

Corrected.

[mykonian]

I'd like a short running stream, if you pick out the most important things, I'd be happy.

[mykonian]

Wall-e, I would like it if you posted reasons for a vote, so we can have that information too. We may have missed the points you tought reasons enough for a vote, and it can be the beginning for our thinking. If you are town, giving your reasons can only help.

[mykonian]

I hope people that are voting Sekinj have more of a case, because after reading the post Wall-e mentioned, and what his comments on it are, I can't say it would have been a strong case. Good you didn't vote her for this.

[mykonian]

I knew for a fact that Kai had a powerrole, and I acted from the assumption that if Kai had to claim, I had too. So it could be usefull too defend Kai at all costs. Because, if even then it proved useless, Kai would have to claim, and so would I. If for some mysterious reason it would have worked, Kai wouldn't have to explicitly claim day, but day 2 and we as masons would have a bigger impact on the game. I hope it explains that, I admit, weird post.

[mykonian]

I knew for a fact that Kai had a powerrole, and I acted from the assumption that if Kai had to claim, I had too. So it could be usefull too defend Kai at all costs. Because, if even then it proved useless, Kai would have to claim, and so would I. If for some mysterious reason it would have worked, Kai wouldn't have to explicitly claim day, but day 2 and we as masons would have a bigger impact on the game. I hope it explains that, I admit, weird post.

[mykonian]

Shanba: I think your case against Scigatt is quite clear. That with his weak hop on SL's wagon, and what I think was placing things out of context in order to defend Zade, is why I vote Scigatt on the moment. I agree that he is quite obvious, far more then Sekinj.

That case on Sekinj that I thought weak:
post 14, Wall-e interpretation was that Sekinj had voted without reason (she hadn't voted yet), but this was about Springs semi random vote on Sekinj action against Edify (I thought that action justified).
post 20, this is an "if she is scum, this would be something scum could say, because" argument. Or she is town, and then this is useless.
post 30, this is a weird move. The unvote before Kai claimed. She could have read me and Kai right, or it was something else, but is it scummy?
and then something that is not understandeble.

Guy's, this can hardly be a reason to vote for someone day 2. This are no found reasons, these are sought. If nobody has more on Sekinj, the lynch of Sekinj can't be different then a bad one. But there is more then one person on Sekinj, and yesterday was, so I can't imagine this is everything against Sekinj, because then the votes are in my eyes completely unjustified.

the main case I see in CF's post, is active lurking. If you want to lynch a lurker, lets go for Scigatt, because he has done scummier thing in the posts he posted.

To conclude, Sekinj's play hasn't been strong, but also never antitown. She has done nothing to derail the play, nothing that benefits scum. Active lurking is about the weakest reason you can place for a vote. Scigatt is much clearer in this. He is clearly lurking AND his posts have been far from town. He hopped on the SL wagon for little reason... Can hardly be town. Sekinj had been there for a long time, posted reasons for that, and her vote was therefor much more town.

[mykonian]

Wall-e has just a playstyle that seems scummy (please, change it, in time). I'm happy that Artem had a solid play, that gives Wall-e room to play (don't use it too much).

I don't see how something like: "she only copies what others said" can be a valid argument. I used it as scum ones to make a "case" on a towny. Most times I said he didn't bring anything new, and a few, barely scummy posts. If you looked objectivily at it, it was completely insane, but if you tried to search for something scummy, the "case" actually seemed to have something good in it. I'm afraid something like that happens here also. A scum driven, weak case based bandwagon. If nothing changes, and after I read, Wall-e, CF, and Shanba's cases, I don't see any reason for me to vote for Sekinj, also because I think Scigatt is far more scummy, and zade is also above Sekinj on my scumlist.

[mykonian]

Shanba, really I wasn't attacking anyone, I only said it is an argument that is too easily used on a towny, so that if it formes the greatest part of a case on someone, and there aren't big arguments that make the person scummy, I am reluctant to vote for such a person.

So, I basically, I think the case on Sekinj is rubbish, but I think it is unlikely that 3 scum would go on one bandwagon for weak reasons on Sekinj.

No matter who the replacement is, my vote isn't very to move right away. I don't think that person isn't likely to be lynched right away, so he/she can tell his/her story, and my vote wasn't unreasoned.

[mykonian]

Shanba: I think your case against Scigatt is quite clear. That with his weak hop on SL's wagon, and what I think was placing things out of context in order to defend Zade, is why I vote Scigatt on the moment. I agree that he is quite obvious, far more then Sekinj.

That case on Sekinj that I thought weak:
post 14, Wall-e interpretation was that Sekinj had voted without reason (she hadn't voted yet), but this was about Springs semi random vote on Sekinj action against Edify (I thought that action justified).
post 20, this is an "if she is scum, this would be something scum could say, because" argument. Or she is town, and then this is useless.
post 30, this is a weird move. The unvote before Kai claimed. She could have read me and Kai right, or it was something else, but is it scummy?
and then something that is not understandeble.

this was a clarification on why I thought the case on Sekinj as posted by Wall-e (582) was not enough to vote on. To avoid enormous quotes, I didn't quote it.

Guy's, this can hardly be a reason to vote for someone day 2. This are no found reasons, these are sought. If nobody has more on Sekinj, the lynch of Sekinj can't be different then a bad one. But there is more then one person on Sekinj, and yesterday was, so I can't imagine this is everything against Sekinj, because then the votes are in my eyes completely unjustified.

the main case I see in CF's post, is active lurking. If you want to lynch a lurker, lets go for Scigatt, because he has done scummier thing in the posts he posted.

To conclude, Sekinj's play hasn't been strong, but also never antitown. She has done nothing to derail the play, nothing that benefits scum. Active lurking is about the weakest reason you can place for a vote. Scigatt is much clearer in this. He is clearly lurking AND his posts have been far from town. He hopped on the SL wagon for little reason... Can hardly be town. Sekinj had been there for a long time, posted reasons for that, and her vote was therefor much more town.

bolded is my answer on what I think was unclear to you. Also I will be far from convinced by a case that is based on active lurking, that isn't too obvious. I want more to go on. Scigatt has lurked (slight scumtell) but has done in his posts pretty scummy things. That makes a case for me. Those arguments reïnforce each other, with Sekinj there is little to reïnforce it, to me. And Zade, you really had me doubting my opinion about Sekinj at the end of day 1, but as I said, that would be something for day 2. It was not gut, but on that moment I saw her unvote on Kai as protown. Today, I really tried to look objectively on it, but still I get the feeling that the case on Sekinj is far from great. Be honest, has Sekinj done so much antitown things?

And maybe to put some meta in, Sekinj seems to have this problem more (I read a game she was in). Sekinj, I think posting more cases against players, and showing who your suspects are, with your thoughts, could help. Nobody would ever accuse you of active lurking, and you would be acting pro-town.

[mykonian]

I didn't dare to say this, to lynch Scigatt before the replacement comes, but I feel you are right. I don't agree with your case against Wall-e, for meta reasons. Not that Wall-e shouldn't change this, and he should always give reasons, but it is no reason for me to vote him.

Wall-e consider it, you help town more by posting your reasons, and thereby you improve your chances of winning. If you don't do this, you actually act antitown, because you could have acted more protown. And lynching you when you are a towny couldn't help also, could it?

[mykonian]

2 if you can play protown, but you don't, you act antitown.
3 that can result in mislynching you (I've seen it), and that helps even less.

It more or less follows from the first sentence, so you getting that one is the most important.

[mykonian]

not only Wall-e's case. I got the feeling that it was also the main argument in CF's case. I don't think it is really obvious that she is active lurking, and if it isn't that obvious, I think it is a little sought (incorrect English, I guess, from "to seek"). So it isn't an argument that I'm not likely to trust. Sekinj has had some original content, and I feel people are looking at it as scummy, because their gut tells them she is scummy, and when they are searching for reasons to make a case, they come up with this. It is simply too easy to use to on someone that is somewhat hesistant to tell everything, or is a bit uncertain, or is afraid to be called scummy when that person posts everything he/she thinks.

I guess it is the last, but I certainly don't think Sekinj has been very antitown, and I also think she has posted things of her own.

[mykonian]

Is everybody waiting for the replacement?

[mykonian]

Happy birthday Shanba!

Thank you for the lesson. It helps.

And I'm for lynching Scigatt before the replacement comes.

[mykonian]

CF, I do know it is scummy. That's why it has nothing to do with the play, but with the player that has to replace in that position. It just stinks.

I thought by myself: would there be any chance that player would change my view on Scigatt? Or would he still be a certain lynch? If it was the last, I don't think it is worth the irritation of the player that tried his best to help this forum.

[mykonian]

Wow, SP, you're awake... I'm not. On the moment I agree with this, but I'll look at it tomorrow.

[mykonian]

CF, I have bad experiences with people setting up lynches for the next day. You do it, and I dont like it. Even if Scigatt is town, you are doing a scummy action.

With my suspects, they are the same as Kai's. Scigatt having the worst play of them.

[mykonian]

I don't think it necessitates waiting indefinitely, but what does Riot, as scum, possibly gain from delaying a lynch by one day even if Scigatt is his partner?

If Scigatt is scum: He would gain maybe a mislynch (±4/5 chance on that), getting them closer to Lylo. He could be hoping for someone else to act scummy, so Scigatt is forgotten if the replacement is good.

I'm more afraid for what happens if Scigatt is town: CF sets up a mislynch day 3 and hopes, or guesses that we mislynch today. Lylo if our doc isn't very, very good.

The statement: "Let's lynch the most scummy player the next day", is scummy.

Optimum play would be: lynch the scummiest player day 2, lynch someone else day 3.
In stead of: lynch someone else day 2, lynch the scummiest player day 3.

This is because: the more days you have, the more accurate your lynches get, because you have more information. I assume that the scummiest player gets lynched, and CF seems to do that also. Then the question simplifies to: If we could choose to do an "uncertain" lynch day 2 or day 3, when should we do it? Day 3 is the obvious answer, because you have more information then.

[mykonian]

Again, you're not considering that Scig might really be a power role. We've all pretty much agreed that if you're telling the truth, the set-up is something like M M X X _ _ _ right? What happens if we have MMM XX _ _ and Scig is the child? All I'm saying is you don't know with certainty that Scig has to be either scum or vanilla, so I think it's totally worth it to find out before we rush into lynching him.

To me, this is not the question. Is it ethical to let someone replace, and then lynch him within 3 pages?

[mykonian]

While I was looking at sekinj, I took another look at this post. (Maybe someone spotted this before, I'm not sure.)

Right, I'm not particularly enjoying the new turn of the discussion and wouldn't be unhappy if you guys would just leave the setup alone. It's no fun and I think scum have brains too.

Germy, I still think you're most probably town, but you're starting to push it.
What's the point of hunting for scum reaction when you make evident what you are doing?

I dislike mykonian's last post a lot, I don't see any point in it. Myko, would you care to explain what purpose it served?

I'd like to see more from afatchic and all people who have no vote placed on someone.

First of all, I don't see how talking about the setup for a few posts, as opposed to roleclaiming, can hurt the town. The scum will discuss this among themselves anyways at night, and I don't how this could be town move.

Vote:springlullaby

and Scigatt is on the lynch... Voting for a reason that is weak on its best, but never enough to lynch someone on.

Further, this was his only vote. This was his post a day before the above one:

---

Edify - Scigatt

Edify did very little but attack my claim outright, and Scigatt's "non-voting status" comment really irked me. On the one hand, I agree with his recent post saying that afatchic or Sche were suspicious, yet Scigatt's agreement implies to me: if Scigatt mafia <=> Sche mafia.

Scigatt: we have three days left until Twilight. Are you

still

happy not voting? I hope not. At this point, my vote remains on you until you do.

I'm no gonna throw around my vote like you apparently want me to do...for some reason

FoS germy

. However, sekinj, from what glances I've seen of his posts and cases against him, looks interesting at least. I'll look at him later today.

Sekinj was the other lynch option. But just before deadline, suddenly things seem to go well for Sekinj, and bad for Springlullaby. Scigatt acted on it. His only clear thing he did further was defending Zade/afat:

Okay, from my reading of afat/zade, I come away with the strong feeling that she is most likely town. Afat wasn't very impressive, but even then I felt the case against him wasn't as strong as Kair and others stated. Zade was just decent with her first posts, but seemed to get better as she went along. Also, all her posts seem to be either reasonable defences or attempts to scumhunt. However, if anyone (especially Kair) can show me where I have gone wrong with my reading, with references and explanations, I might be persuaded to change my mind, though not without some argument.

There are some other things that might be noticed, but right now I want to go to sleep.

and:

Hmm...

Okay, what the heck is the case on Scheherazade? I've read hers and afat's posts but nothing seems scummy enough to warrant this attention.

In his last posts, his post 15 and 16 (!), he defends Zade/afat again. He placed that quote in 16 out of context.

Scigatt lurked. The above were the most important.

[mykonian]

To me, what ever Scigatt/nati will be, my suspicions will be the same.

At first, I thought the move of vote to zade to be suspicious (Sekinj). Wall-e isn't: he stated reasons.
SP is the roleblocker. I have not a lot to suspect SP, nati is scummy. He picked the powerrole with the least chance some other person would have it, chose absolutely the wrong person (zade is the only one scigatt defended) so that claim is dead. Let's lynch scum.
To Nati's counter: if you are not a roleblocker, we need only one D, to have a doctor that had a 50% chance of targeting the right mason.

We have no SK, because with all this town power, the SK's kills could hardly be protected.
I had germy maybe as SK, certainly no scum, or a backup power role, and because he is no SK, he spoke the truth.

Why said Nati-scum that he targetted zade: Wifom. Ultimate distancing. If one flips scum, the other is far from confirmed.

I think zade is scum, yet Nati is far more obvious. A shaky claim, a solid counterclaim. If Nati is scum, now he is spreading doubt. Don't let him succeed.

Conclusion: To roleblock a kill is hard. To doc-protect one of the two masons is easy. One of the two claims is wrong and I still think whe have a doc.

lynching the roleblockers target tell nothing about the RB.

Nati is scum, and not lynching the scummiest player is antitown, as the chance is bigger to mislynch on an other player (assuming (scumminess*constant)=(chance player is scum))

[mykonian]

I think nati lies. The claim is not strong. However I don't think Shanba is scum, and he wanted to kill and was roleblocked. How big are the chances. A RB had in this case 1/11 chance to prevent the kill. A doc had 1/2 (guess the right mason). I would think it highly unlikely that there isn't a doc. I don't want to go to a lot of maths, but series of different letters are more likely then series of the same letter. (MMDBBTT) is more likely then (MMMBBTT). If we have a Vig, I would ask to kill Zade...

[mykonian]

Good luck Nati!

[mykonian]

This nk (and I know I shouldn't say this) should point us to shanba. Wifom, and my personal view of shanba is town.

Let's see who I want to lynch...

vote scheherazade

. Afat was scummy, you had a weak start. Scigatt defended you, and Nati attacked you. Somewhere you are special to them.

The last are not strong points, but I'd like to tell you a story.

The story started, not so long ago. Nati had just accepted to replace in this game, and while rereading she couldn't believe how weak the play of his predescessor was. Scigatt only defended his buddy. He was going to be lynched, but he got an idea. They wanted him to claim? they would get one. Not to save himself, no, but to save Zade. He claimed roleblocker and said he blocked Zade. Nice bit of Wifom, as Scigatt defended Zade. Who would be able to read her correct now?

Off course the above is not prove that Zade is scum. It only shows that if you want, the weird play of Nati could fit in with Zade as scum. Reasons for Zade being scum are already posted, and he would be my choice for a lynch now, if nothing weird happens.

[mykonian]

Off course they would kill a confirmed towny, or close to. I, Kai and SP were the targets, and maybe you. They chose one of them, and hoped this time the doctor wouldn't block the kill. The fact that SP could have blocked the kill is just as much Wifom as my point about Nati's claim. It is way more possible that the kill was blocked by the doc, then the chance that it was blocked by a roleblocker. Just maths.

Killing SP doesn't change the fact that he blocked Shanba. It only points us at it, more then SP could ever have done. Look at the play of Shanba. If it is scummy, you can vote for him. The NK shouldn't be the reason to vote Shanba.

[mykonian]

BTW: yay for me being on my first Scum lynch! The only scum that was lynched in any of my games was I.

[mykonian]

Shanba is so right. It is the same as why my story about the Nati-zade connection. It is one of the many possibilities. It is just as easy to tell a story that says Zade is town. The argument doesn't tell anything, apart from saying: "this is a possibility".

The story of Germy is just the same: Scum saw how SP targeted Shanba, and knew he was a powerrole. They know now there is a doctor too, because Shanba is town. The choice for the nightkill is obvious: take out the powerrole, and with it draw suspicion on Shanba. Maybe it will convince town to do some antitown moves, not only to lynch Shanba, but maybe they will make a logical fallacy that they can pick off.

Again, the above proves nothing. I think the chance is bigger that this one is true, because:

a. I already believed Shanba to be town.
b. A roleblocked NK is unlikely, far more then a block by the doc.

[mykonian]

Kai, massclaim can wait. There is no haste. Let's see what happens. We can still mislynch a few times, and that is why there is no real need to do it now.

[mykonian]

wall-e, the numbers change a bit with one R, and change more with 2 M's. How about Wolfs claim? If he claims vanilla, what about germy? what about Shanba? Both must be scum then.

and we can still have 2 mislynches.

[mykonian]

Assuming no blocks/doc protects/vig or SK kills/whatev we can have 2. Lynching the VT's indiscriminately one by one could possibly lead to town loss, as right now there are 5 VT's and only 2 scum max.

And yes, someone is definitely lying. I don't really get Wall-E's point in the previous post. That's okay though, I think I know what's going on.

Off course, do you expect scum to claim truthfully? And could you say what is going on?

[mykonian]

shanba claimed, only wolf to go, isn't it?

[mykonian]

I want to spew my ideas too.

[mykonian]

Sorry CF. You are right.

[mykonian]

that is what CF saw too, and I just found.

MMRDDTT means a serial killer, and there isn't one. Wolfs claim can't make up for this. What about your doc Kai? where is it?

[mykonian]

sorry...

[mykonian]

unvote vote Shanba

[mykonian]

Zade is ok with me. He is the most scummy person in my eyes, and lynching that person, even if he is town, is good. It frees us from any presumptions. From Artem's play, I changed my view.

I want germy to go after CF again. You don't find scum by changing the RB, because they are going to NK, just as now.

germy should come online, to say what his target is. Like I said, I would like to have it on CF again.

[mykonian]

vote scheherazade

[mykonian]

If zade is scum: we should lynch him. That seems to be hard enough. Zade has more against him then Wall-e. Wall-e's play is not that of a professional mafiascum player, but it has improved.

If zade is not scum: and we lynch him, we don't have ever to look at him again. We can look at all his statements as town, and all the people that said something about Zade. We are stuck with Wall-e, CF, Sekinj, and Wolf. Apart from Sekinj, there has been little attention to them. If Zade is gone, and Zade drawed all the attention, we can look much more objectively at them.

And germy, I hoped you were right with CF. Also CF is the person I have not a good read on. If he is scum, he is hard to catch for me. If you block him, and there is a kill, I would very much like it that CF is a confirmed towny. The benefit when Wall-e is confirmed is much smaller. I even would like Sekinj more.

So I would like to be blocked: CF, Sekinj, Wall-e, and in that order.

[mykonian]

btw, where has sekinj been the last days?

[mykonian]

unvote

Germy, if we don't lynch Zade, can I convince you to block him? To me, there is no difference. Because:

we have 2 mislynches, and you have the chance to clear one person. Lynches clear one person too. I didn't start this day thinking that Zade is certain scum. I could be wrong in that. However, I do want to have her confirmed. Zade as certain town can really help us, I think. Germy, do you agree with this?

[mykonian]

L-2

Germy, if we lynch Wall-e, would you plz, plz block Zade? I will vote Wall-e then too.

[mykonian]

I don't like it, but it seems I don't have a choice.

Why block wolf though? One of the other 3 seemed better to me. We won't learn as much from Wolfs innocence, as we learn from the other ones.

[mykonian]

He wants to block wolf.

[mykonian]

Germy, because it can confirm one. Personally I lean town for CF too, but still, to have him confirmed is much better then have Wolf confirmed. CF had more interaction with everyone.

That was the reason also why I wanted Zade, and I mentioned that: Everybody has reacted on zade. Same counts for Sekinj. If one of them is confirmed, you can look at those reactions. You can be wrong, I can be too, but in my plan, we don't need to block scum, because in case it fails, we can't have no problem with that, because it gives a valuable confirmed player.

Wolf is simply for that purpose the worst choice. He hasn't been very active, and was out of the spotlights (I agree that could be scummy).

[mykonian]

Germy, they have made a mistake by leaving you alive. Now we can't lose anymore. We kill one of the three uncertains, you block an other one. If there is a nightkill, we know the third person did it. If there is no nightkill, scum can't win, because we would get 2 confirmed against scum in Lylo. They only way for scum to win, was to kill you this day.

[mykonian]

If there is a kill tomorrow: we have 3 confirmed (the 3 we have now, minus one for the killing + one from your unsuccesfull block) and 1 unconfirmed (scum. the 3 we have now, minus the lynch, and minus the unsuccesfull block) Lylo, but with only one choice, to lynch scum.

If there is a no kill: we have 3 confirmed (same 3 as today) and 2 unconfirmed (3 minus the lynch). If we lynch now, and scum kills, it is 2 against 1, with two confirmed players. Auto win again.

Scum, you can also claim, then this is over. It is not like we are going to mess up.

[mykonian]

see above posts: it doesn't matter. Lynching her is the faster option... Or just a scumclaim.

[mykonian]

I think I'll lurk until that happens...

[mykonian]

I wanted the previous day to go fast, to let scum not get the idea that another No Kill would lose them the game. Only CF mentioned it in town... I wanted to pressure scum in making a mistake...

In the end, scum made a mistake, but certainly not the way I expected it. A nightkill always had to be on germy, it was the only way to get to lylo with having a chance. Now, If there is a No kill, we win, because we get 2 confirmed players in 2-1 lylo. If there is a kill, we have 3 confirmed players in 3-1 lylo. This is instant win.

Scum can claim if they want, so we can end this peacefully.

[mykonian]

vote CF Riot

[mykonian]

confirmed: germy, myko, wolf.
unconfirmed: sekinj, zade.

Original Roll String: 1d2

1 2-Sided Dice: (1) = 1

[mykonian]

vote sekinj

[mykonian]

wolf, it doesn't matter anymore. We have won. Germy is not lying when there is no town lying, I'm not lying because Kai is dead and there is only one mason. You are town because germy checked you. That leaves 2 possible scum, and we have enough mislynches to try them both. Zade's hammer was ok, just to finish this game.

[mykonian]

a if germy is lying, there would be a serial killer. There is none.
b after the moment that kai was killed, scum had lost. Killing only brought more confirmed players, and killing germy ended all the suspicion on him. Its a pity I fully believe germy...

vote sekinj

[mykonian]

even amount of T's is SK.

We know there is none, there have never been 2 kills.

Therefor, the amount of t's must be 1,3,5 or 7. We know that kai and I are masons, we represent 2 letters. We know SP was blocker, that represented 1 too.

that leaves us the 1 and the 3. Assuming town hasn't lied (and if you did, you don't deserve to win), and we are on 4 possible T's. One of the players must represent one letter. Only one person has claimed so: germy. Every claim that comes now, is too late I think, and unbelieveble. That's why germy is confirmed. If he was mafia, we would need an other powerrole, and noone has claimed that.

[mykonian]

both times I was like: no, it can't be...


And luckily it wasn't.

[mykonian]

Germy, the question I asked myself just after I read your semi claim: Would you also have done it with a nurse or deputy? I thought it most likely for you to be 1 shot vig, or both a little less likely, SK or Backup Blocker. The best thing you did, was claiming a letter. It helped a lot in mass-claim.

[mykonian]

the mass claim won us the game... without it, it would be hard to catch shanba. If scum had seen that possibility, it could have been harder too. You needed to fakeclaim 2 powerroles, and you would have been clear. Claiming doc, with a protect on a mason, would have cleared shanba, and would have got germy in problems with his gambit.