Mini #682: C9++ (Game Over!)

[CF Riot]

Is that a little 3-finger flip-off in panel #6? Ouch. Sek should've been today. =\

[Artem]

you didn't think your case was good enough for a hammer? just a vote?

I'm grumbling because there are unanswered questions in my post now, not because I'm the hammer and not an L-1 vote.

[springlullaby]

Huh, my cardflip will answer your questions automatically, so I don't see why you are grumbling. (Scummy scum Artem :p)

[sekinj]

@SL - I liked your cartoon also... very cool, and well put together. I like the disclaimer too Maybe I will feel shame after hearing what the mod says...

[mykonian]

Even if the mod tell spring is scum, you know you are a target tomorrow.

[iamausername]

Votecount #18: The End of Day One Votecount!

springlullaby (7) - sekinj, mykonian, Scigatt, Kairyuu, Scheherazade, germy, Artem

sekinj (2) - CF Riot, SilverPhoenix
Scheherazade (1) - wolframnhart
Artem (1) - springlullaby

Not Voting (1) - Ku_F

7 to lynch.

After a long day, with accusations flying every which way, the town decide that someone has to pay for the string of murders that has been plaguing the town, and that someone is

springlullaby

. As the mob descends, and drags her kicking and screaming to the gallows, she points fingers of blame at her accusers, but it's too late for her, and no one will listen.

After the lynch, everyone pays a visit to the late springlullaby's home, to see if they can find proof that their suspicions were correct, but all they find is a freezer full of plain ice cream; clearly the home of a

Vanilla Townie

.

Everyone heads to their beds with an uneasy feeling, knowing that the mafia is still at large.

springlullaby, Vanilla Townie - Lynched Day 1

.

-=It is now Night 1. Those of you who can talk in private at night may now do so. Those of you with night actions, please send them to me promptly.=-

-=Night will end in 72 hours if no replacement for Ku_F is found before then. If one is found, night will end 72 hours after they replace in, or once all night actions are is and at least 24 hours have passed since the replacement.=-

[iamausername]

-=Wall-E replaces Ku_F. Thanks, Wall-E!=-

[iamausername]

The citizens of C9++ awake to discover a truly horrifying sight. The local supermarket is all out of milk!

Anyway, once they've all got over this shock, all assemble in the town square, and are surprised to discover that the eleven who left last night are all still present and accounted for. Maybe this mafia threat was just a wild rumour after all? But maybe you should carry on with those public executions anyway, just in case. After all, it's better to be safe than sorry.

Deadline set for Sunday, 16th November. With 11 alive, it will take 6 votes to lynch.

[Scheherazade]

I'm not familiar with games of mafia that allow the mafia to refrain from killing somebody. What motives would mafia have not to kill? Obviously, if no one dies, we're deprived of information. But this only brings the mafia closer to winning if it anticipates that we'll continue to kill townies. It seems like killing one of the claimed players would be safe for the mafia.

I know this all leads to WIFOM when applied, but I'm still trying to figure out what it means. Help?

[SilverPhoenix]

I'm not familiar with games of mafia that allow the mafia to refrain from killing somebody. What motives would mafia have not to kill? Obviously, if no one dies, we're deprived of information. But this only brings the mafia closer to winning if it anticipates that we'll continue to kill townies. It seems like killing one of the claimed players would be safe for the mafia.

I know this all leads to WIFOM when applied, but I'm still trying to figure out what it means. Help?

Either we have a doctor or the mafia is terrified. Killing germy, mykonian, or Kairyuu would have been easy, and it really only puts their claims on the line. The role pm for the mafia says they aren't required to kill (uses "may", not "must"), so it is very likely that the Mafia is scared of killing the obvious players.

mFOS: Kairyuu, mykonian

It's minor because it is very plausible that we have a doctor. But last night certainly did not help your claims.

[wolframnhart]

I'm not familiar with games of mafia that allow the mafia to refrain from killing somebody. What motives would mafia have not to kill? Obviously, if no one dies, we're deprived of information. But this only brings the mafia closer to winning if it anticipates that we'll continue to kill townies. It seems like killing one of the claimed players would be safe for the mafia.

I know this all leads to WIFOM when applied, but I'm still trying to figure out what it means. Help?

Either we have a doctor or the mafia is terrified. Killing germy, mykonian, or Kairyuu would have been easy, and it really only puts their claims on the line. The role pm for the mafia says they aren't required to kill (uses "may", not "must"), so it is very likely that the Mafia is scared of killing the obvious players.

mFOS: Kairyuu, mykonian

It's minor because it is very plausible that we have a doctor. But last night certainly did not help your claims.

Yet at the same time, maybe that is something the mafia is/was hoping for, doubt being cast on Kair and Myko.

[SilverPhoenix]

I'm not familiar with games of mafia that allow the mafia to refrain from killing somebody. What motives would mafia have not to kill? Obviously, if no one dies, we're deprived of information. But this only brings the mafia closer to winning if it anticipates that we'll continue to kill townies. It seems like killing one of the claimed players would be safe for the mafia.

I know this all leads to WIFOM when applied, but I'm still trying to figure out what it means. Help?

Either we have a doctor or the mafia is terrified. Killing germy, mykonian, or Kairyuu would have been easy, and it really only puts their claims on the line. The role pm for the mafia says they aren't required to kill (uses "may", not "must"), so it is very likely that the Mafia is scared of killing the obvious players.

mFOS: Kairyuu, mykonian

It's minor because it is very plausible that we have a doctor. But last night certainly did not help your claims.

Yet at the same time, maybe that is something the mafia is/was hoping for, doubt being cast on Kair and Myko.

I see where the WIFOM falls into play, but why does that prevent the Mafia from just killing someone else without much suspicion? The mafia must have been scared stupid (quite literally).

[wolframnhart]

One can never truely assume what scum might do with their night kill. They easily could have decided to not kill Kair or Myko just to cast doubt on them as masons, since I think a couple of people were saying they weren't completely sure on that, especially if both of them are alive on day 3. Scum also might not have wanted to kill off just anyone because every ones suspicions were all over yesterday, so this way they could add more confusion (i think this is the least likely btw but as i said, you can't really know what scum might do), OR we really do have a doc and that person picked the right one.

[Wall-E]

I can't believe y'all didn't lynch germy for softclaiming on D1.

sekinj's post 51 sucks. Shut up sekinj.

germy has a fullblown case built on three players on page 3.

I love Nightwolf's post 71, despite the verboseness. Especially liking where he tears apart germy's bad logic. You'll find I prefer to be vastly more succinct compared to what I've seen so-far on pages 1-4.

Artem used the word "affected" instead of "effected" in post 88. This fact has nothing to do with anything important. I'm just picky.

Everyone is being WAY too confident on D1.

I'm not going to lie and say I read ALL of that. In fact, I read about 20% of it. I mostly looked at posts where people voted. Too much time was spent arguing meta or playstyle.

I partially agree with the springlullaby lynch, but I think it's unfortunate he was hammered before getting a chance to claim/inspire more discussion. I think the things that are said during twilight/just before a lynch are important.

I found myself agreeing with CF Riot often throughout my readthrough.

I'm going to

Vote: sekinj

. I have reasons, but wish to withhold stating them publicly for now. I also have a reason for that, but I'll save that, too.

[Scheherazade]

Hello, Mr. Secretive. I see you're out to make friends. I'd like to hear those reasons you mentioned as soon as they're declassified. I hope I'm not asking for anything sensitive, but you would have advocated lynching germy for his softclaim on day one? What are your reasons for that?

@SilverPhoenix: Ooops. I got so hung up on the "may" in the role PMs that I let myself discount the doctor entirely.

@Phoenix and wolframhart: Do you guys see any other possibilities? I'm trying to generate as many possibilities as possible before weeding them down to the ones that most likely apply. Right now, between the three of us, they are:

1. Doctor saved the target.
2. Mafia is scared of killing an obvious player.
---I'm not sure I follow here, though. What would they lose by killing germy?
3. Myk and Kairyuu are mafia and have refrained from killing to put off the time when we have any solid evidence that they're a scum-team not masons.
---Even if this were the case, germy seems like a safe choice, unless germy is the third mafia player.
4. The mafia has refrained from killing to cast suspicion on Myk and Kairyuu.
5. The mafia is content letting all the town live due to the suspicion of town players.

[mykonian]

I'm on zade again. Don't think her opening post today is strong, and his and afat's play haven't been very confincing. To start this day:

vote scheherazade

.

And on his opening post: You could interpret it like this: why isn't he dead? we should have killed him... oh no, a doctor... Let's put them gently on the wrong track.

[SilverPhoenix]

@Phoenix and wolframhart: Do you guys see any other possibilities?

There is another that I am waiting on from a mod pm to confirm. I won't say what it is yet.
But your 5 choices are pretty sound. The question you pose in the 2nd situation is answered because germy soft-claimed town, but like you said, he could be mafia. He immediately mentioned the possible scum gambit, a possible secret way to tell his scummates that he understands the gambit and will play along with it. I'm getting the feeling that the gambit is ever more likely to exist...

I really need to hear reactions from Kairyuu and germy regarding the lack of a nightkill.

Wall-E: Anything else you found about germy that we should be aware of?

[Wall-E]

you would have advocated lynching germy for his softclaim on day one? What are your reasons for that?

1) We could find out if he's lying, and if he's not, use the information he gave the town.
2) To prevent others from doing the same. It's best to keep as much information a secret as possible for as long as possible. The other extreme would be a massclaim, and I can't ever see that being useful unless the setup itself is broken. This setup is not broken, so it's a bad idea to softclaim unprovoked. I have more to say about this if anyone's interested.

[Kairyuu]

Either we have a doc, or someone wants the claimants to get lynched to save themselves some trouble. Of course, there are several other possibilities, including:

-RB blocks scum who sends kill
-scum forgets to send the kill
-the ones already mentioned (sans me and myko being scum of course)

I won't deny that I am surprised at this development, but given the number of possibilities, I don't think we have much to gain from trying to figure out what happened. It allows the scum to try to get us to lean one way or the other subtly in order to serve their purposes better. The only way we can really know is through claiming, which is a bad idea right now.

vote: Scheherazade

because you knew I was gonna do it. I didn't like the reasoning behind the wagon jump, and it was a common scum position (yes, so was mine, but I had merely given up on getting zade lynched for the day because deadline was so close and any lynch is better than none D1).

@Wall-E: Welcome, welcome. Hope to see your reasoning become clear in due time.

I would be semi-willing to move my vote later in the Day for a few reasons I'll point out then, but for now I think Zade is a much better choice, and would like to know your opinions on this matter.

[Kairyuu]

Also, I'm at reduced (probably severely) post frequency for the next 1.5 weeks. I doubt I will fall behind, but I will unfortunately not be able to post much.

[Scheherazade]

@mykonian: I'm not quite sure how to respond to that reading of my opening post. I know that you suspect me and have suspected me/afatchic for a while. Does my post suggest scum motives to you on its own or is your reading an explanation of my post in terms of your suspicion?

@SilverPhoenix: Okay. I'm interested to hear what you went after when you hear back. That observation about germy is interesting, but I'm not inclined to think that a scum gambit is any more likely at this point because of the nights events. Of course, I was asking your thoughts because I wasn't quite convinced of anything.

@Wall-E: I follow you so far. Are you unhappy now that we haven't lynched germy? Has there been anything in this game so far in which germy's information would have been crucial?

@Kairyuu: Yes, yes, I figured you'd be back at it as soon as you posted.

As far as my reasoning for voting springlullaby, my reason c was the same reasoning you gave. Therefore, your problem isn't with insufficient cause. That indicates to me that one of the other reasons I gave seemed scummy to you. Which reason is it and would you care to elaborate?

And not to put more pressure on you (the APs are well worth your time, if you ever doubt that, believe me), but I just wanted to mention the rereading you promised, lest you forget it in the excitement of the new day.

[CF Riot]

Regarding the no NK situation, I think it's most probable that we have a Doc or RB. This reduces the likelihood that there is a Vig or SK (though not impossible because of mafia or town RB). One thing about this event is

if

it's a scum-ploy I could see it more likely coming from Germy-scum than Kair/Myko-scum. It would suggest to us the existence of a Doc/RB which in turn strengthens Germy's claim while at the same time explaining his living through the night. I still highly doubt this, and even if this is a scum-ploy I'm happy because I think it's a sub-optimal choice regarding their options from last night.

With that out of the way, getting right back to the business of yesterday I still happily support a Sekinj wagon. SL flipping town doesn't really add to or confirm my suspicion from yesterday, but it definitely fits well with Sek-scum.

Vote: Sekinj

Zade, SP, Wolf: Have any of your suspicions changed from yesterday? Who are you all looking at the most, and did the SL lynch or the (lack of) night actions affect your opinions?

Sek: Who's suspicious today and what did you learn from the SL-lynch?

[germy]

Vote:Scheherazade

Him or Scigatt. There additional votes, especially right at the end near Deadline, reek of scum to me. I'd be perfectly happy with either.

[Wall-E]

@Wall-E: I follow you so far. Are you unhappy now that we haven't lynched germy? Has there been anything in this game so far in which germy's information would have been crucial?

Not unhappy. I would have liked to see a bit of a threat put against him for town-training purposes. I feel he could've had is feet pressed against the fire a bit more for it. I don't think further information would have helped, but it's always nice when someone cracks under pressure and says something scummy.

[Scigatt]

Hmm...

Okay, what the heck is the case on Scheherazade? I've read hers and afat's posts but nothing seems scummy enough to warrant this attention.