Mini 1856 - This Mafia Game is for pieguyn (Game Over)
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pieguyn Survivor
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pieguyn Survivor
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this is not subjective - you literally are just objectively wrong. the logic behind what you're saying is not correct.
i'll make things as straightforward as possible
fill in the blank: "there can't be two scum in a neighborhood because... ___"-
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pieguyn Survivor
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pieguyn Survivor
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there are two scum in the hood because Varsoon was scum and I think dwlee is very likely scum based on their play, yes. you're not arguing any reason for reading their play as town and you are just repeating over and over that "omg theyre more likely town given the flips we have!!11", but you don't substantiate why the neighborhood composition actually makes them town, and if you were to try you would not come up with anything compelling because the neighborhood composition does not make them town and this is objective factIn post 2505, pisskop wrote:"There is two scum in the hood because ___"
and I don't really care where you plan on voting, I'm doing this because what you are saying holds absolutely no water and needs to be shut down
p-edit: at the moment, if it isn't dwlee I would look in {you, beeboy, maybe Nahdia if everyone else fails but I would have to be very sure before lynching them}. if you want anything more than that, I'm out the door in a few mins so ask and I'll get around to it later.-
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pieguyn Survivor
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pieguyn Survivor
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pieguyn Survivor
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pieguyn Survivor
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i'm starting to have some suspicions that we're actually in a 9-2-2 setup.
i don't really know how much stock i want to put in this. if the game reaches a 5p on day 5 with only one kill/night the entire way up to there, and Aero is still alive, i would definitely seriously worry about it and i'd go so far as to say the % play there would be to lynch him to be completely safe, and i have some other ideas as to what it might mean in terms of reads, but i really don't know if it's worth it to lose sleep over it before then.
a large part of this is due to the fact that i can think of some reason to town read almost everyone left (everyone except dwlee) - this could just mean that i'm being too generous with my reads and it *is* just someone like beeboy or pisskop (both of whom i think there is compelling reason to town read but are at the bottom in terms of my town reads), but if both dwlee and beeboy flip town i want to be a bit careful here
assuming we're not in a 9-2-2, i still feel mostly sure that lynching dwlee ends the game, and if they flip town, then I like a beeboy shot, and then I suppose Luna and Cakez just target someone who isn't a clear or either of themselves (which means pisskop, GE, or no block).-
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pieguyn Survivor
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pieguyn Survivor
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pieguyn Survivor
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I thought about it a bit more, and I think 9-2-2 makes some amount of sense given the theme of the game. he'd want to create a setup that would go full troll mode on me as either alignment, but not have anything completely stupid or anything that would make me legitimately detest playing the game. so with that in mind,
1. he knows that I don't like multiball as town, *but* he has ran a 9-2-2 multiball normal game before, and in conversations with me about it I remember him telling me that his reviewers called the setup beautiful and that he was really excited that he created a balanced multiball mini game and that it was the only multiball mini normal game that had been ran recently. I remember looking at the setup and telling him that it seemed to be balanced well (as opposed to being ridiculously scum sided like the majority of multiball games), so he might have decided to throw me a curveball and implement it here.
2. he knows that I don't like playing scum, but that I find it more bearable if it's multiball aka I can legitimately scum hunt.
it could just be single faction because disliking multiball as town, I'm not *completely* hopeless when it comes to single-faction scum, etc., but I _definitely_ think it should be seriously thought about if we miss today/tonight and have reason to suspect there is something wrong with this game-
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pieguyn Survivor
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I understand your posts, in that I can read the words you're writing and understand the meaning of them. I don't understand your posts all, in that when I read your posts I cannot comprehend how anyone can have the thought processes you are having and think they're actually valid.In post 2577, pisskop wrote:Yes you do.
they didnt change one lick. You werent having an issue when you were engaging them.
what dont you get?-
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pieguyn Survivor
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I could easily see Wisdom just giving up and hammering himself; I don't know why you or anyone else seems to think it's unlikely. I don't think GE looks like scum at all.In post 2598, SirCakez wrote:
This is a super good pointIn post 2575, beeboy wrote:Wisdom wouldnot have self hammered if the setup was 2-2 unless he valued trolling the town over winning.
This game has 3 scum on 1 team.
I could see Gamma scum too. Wisdom was iirc townreading him for vague as shit reasons.
if the game was to continue past today, with one kill again tonight, then at what point would you start to think something was wrong?-
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pieguyn Survivor
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multiball would imply Aero is scum claiming their kills as a "vig" and the N1 mafia kill disappeared somewhere (either Aero is BP and absorbed it or it went somewhere else). that doesn't seem like too much of a stretch to where I'd rule it out.
the N2 mafia kill obviously would not exist because the mafia would have been dead by then.-
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pieguyn Survivor
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pieguyn Survivor
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pieguyn Survivor
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pieguyn Survivor
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pieguyn Survivor
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Wisdom would not have chainsaw'd Cakez against Varsoon if all three of them were scum, I think.
plus Wisdom's push on Cakez was just nonsense, and I attribute that to him stretching to find reasons to take issue with a townie's play, not legitimately taking issue with a buddy's play.-
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pieguyn Survivor
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pieguyn Survivor
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pieguyn Survivor
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OK.
I think there's a very good chance we're in 9-2-2, and for this reason I think an Aero lynch is best today. it absolutely is not 10-2-1, so speculation about that should stop, but lynching Aero would mean Cakez and Luna could reliably generate clears or force scum into no killing no matter what setup ratio we're in (him flipping WW means only one WW left, him flipping town means it's just a lone mafia who has been no-killing every night for some ungodly reason and will have to keep no killing or start generating clears).
I don't think it's 9-3-1, either, mostly just because GIF knows I think it's completely unfair and while I think he would troll me, I don't think he wants to make me legitimately suffer by making an unfair setup.-
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pieguyn Survivor
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this is a horrible idea, btw; the way it is now, if scum kill Nahdia then I confirm myself, if they kill me then Nahdia confirms themselves. scum literally cannot kill either of us without cutting me off as a mislynch option for good.In post 2695, Aeronaut wrote:I think it's time nahdia confirm herself-
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pieguyn Survivor
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ya that too. 10-3 would also imply that Aero has true claimed bulletproof miller vig, which feels really broken given the other roles we have and the fact that the scum team so far only has had two faith healers.
and I don't think scum would keep trying to fire shots at Aero hoping they can eventually hit on one of them, I think they'd lay off after the shot N1.-
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pieguyn Survivor
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the only scenario where I can see that is if GE is the scum, tried to shoot again on N2, but gave up N3 at which point you blocked him. I don't know how likely that is, though.
p-edit: I don't particularly like no lynch here, given what an Aero lynch would do to clear up the gamestate.-
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pieguyn Survivor
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pieguyn Survivor
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pieguyn Survivor
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pieguyn Survivor
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pieguyn Survivor
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you're delusional if you think you've caught shit this game. you spent the entire D1 hard defending Varsoon because "waaah I have a hood with him!!11", spent most of D1 agreeing with Wisdom, only realized Wisdom was scum after I pointed out he was scum and Varsoon had *flipped*, then threw a tantrum D3 because "waaah I have a hood" and expected people to listen to you because it went so fucking well the first time.In post 2736, pisskop wrote:who caught most the scum of the game?-
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pieguyn Survivor
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... what the fuck am I even reading?
1. if we're in 9-2-2, then Aero is scum. there is no two-person scum team in this game that does not include him; Nahdia and I cannot be a scum team and arguments along the lines of "you two need to confirm yourselves" do not hold water. Nahdia is confirmed town by virtue of my role; if anything what needs to happen is that they don't use the IC so that if scum decides to kill them I can use it.
2. we are not no lynching. I'll probably lay out why this is bad in a separate post at some point, after I've had some more time to think.
3. the "pisskop is not the entire game" argument doesn't work when if for instance the game was to progress to a 3p LYLO, then yes, he would be the entire game. that's the most polarized scenario, but I would rather not have to deal with him being a fucking moron who is playing to a scum win con the rest of the game. I don't like to be reckless in scenarios like this.
I'm clarifying all of this because it is ridiculous how many people in this game have no idea how theory works, both from today and at twilight yesterday as well.
I want to just scream bullshit at Aero trying to say "durr if you don't confirm how can I trust you?". I should probably come back and look at it again when I'm less emotional.-
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pieguyn Survivor
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pieguyn Survivor
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so let me get this straight: you are worried that this was 9-2-2 and that me and Nahdia are scum, correct?In post 2760, Aeronaut wrote:So, here's what I think.
We've got seven players left. I understand why this might be baised, but why not just block me and we NL today? I feel like I don't trust you people to make Pie and Nahdia actually confirm themselves once you've lynched me. I mainly trust pisskop to do it, but I don't think that he will.
I'm not going to make any more kills regardless if you block me or not.
what the hell do you think has happened to all the kills if this is the case? if this is what's going on, then both teams missed their kills N1 and we missed our kills N2 and N3. and no, "scum teams don't get kills" is a silly reason.-
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pieguyn Survivor
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Varsoon - neighbor faith healer
Wisdom - neighbor faith healer
pieguyn - backup IC
Luna Fox - roleblocker
Gamma Emerald - VT
Nahdia - IC
SirCakez - tracker
Aeronaut - some sort of BP miller vig
pisskop - neighbor VT
drealmerz7 - nurse
beeboy - neighbor VT
Dwlee99 - neighbor VT
mhsmith0 - bomb vendor
i looked at the roles we have so far and there isn't actually as much power in this setup as i was thinking there was. i could easily see this balancing as a 10-3 if one of the big PRs remaining in the setup (one of Cakez, Luna, almost definitely Cakez given Luna does not work as single-faction scum here at all) is scum, although i still am not quite sure how he or anyone else would justify no killing every night.
this is what i want to do
lynch Aero today -> if he flips town, then it basically confirms we're in 10-3, with one mafia left. from here, i think this pretty heavily implies Cakez-scum, but i would consider doing something along the lines of Luna blocking pisskop or GE (announcing her target), Cakez having free reign again since we cover more bases that way, even though Luna blocking Cakez is probably also fine. the last mafia is forced into either continuing to no kill, or clearing at least one player, which makes this game pretty broken with both Luna's RB and Cakez' track in play.
if he flips WW, then it confirms we're in 9-2-2, with one WW left. from here i like Luna having free reign and Cakez tracking Luna; Luna if scum, which i would be very worried about in 9-2-2, is forced to either no kill, or kill Cakez and clear a player, and if the last scum is someone else, again same sort of broken position as we'd be in 10-3 with both the RB and the track in play. from there we have two lynches to hit the remaining werewolf - i'm not exactly sure why no lynch is an option here when all it would accomplish with 1 KPN is taking away a chance to hit the remaining WW, but i'll get more into that later in this post.
if he flips SK - i don't think this will happen but for completeness - we're in the same scenario we're in if he flips town
no lynch is completely awful here, for a lot of the reasons Nahdia pointed out. if we no lynch then for one, we waste a lynch, since we go from 7p (three lynches) to 6p (two) - this is fairly basic math so i'm not sure why it's even on the table, but even further, none of our potential clears would be unambiguous due to the likelihood of this being 9-2-2, and moreover, if we're in 9-2-2 then the WW team could easily just go rogue tonight, let Aero get lynched tomorrow and we're left in a not so great position with 4p, only one lynch remaining and the WW team having basically two free kills on whatever players or PRs they see fit. no lynch wouldn't tell us anything about what setup we're playing and we generally wouldn't be able to trust Aero to do what he says he'd do. i am noticing both Aero and Luna attempting to gear up for this and it is a part of reason i want to figure out some way to counter a hypothetical scum-Luna here via night actions in case we're in 9-2-2, as well as my read on her overall, but either way, no lynch is just really bad here no matter what setup we're in-
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pieguyn Survivor
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9-2-2 would mean you're a WW who's claiming your scum kills as a "vig". anything else doesn't work for the exact reason you said later in the post: there haven't been any kills.In post 2785, Aeronaut wrote:How do you possibly deduce that it's impossible for there to be a team without me?
personally if this is what was happening and I was in your position I woulda just went rogue last night and ate a lynch today, but continuing to slow play the vig claim also works.-
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pieguyn Survivor
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pieguyn Survivor
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pieguyn Survivor
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Nahdia confirming themselves doesn't strictly clear me. after all, in pisskop-land, I could just be scum who guessed that a backup IC claim would work, went completely balls-to-the-wall and claimed it first post, and sat and hoped there'd be nothing in the game that would disprove the claim.
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pieguyn Survivor
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pieguyn Survivor
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pieguyn Survivor
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pieguyn Survivor
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pieguyn Survivor
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pieguyn Survivor
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pieguyn Survivor
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I don't really see any possibility besides it being Cakez.In post 2823, Aeronaut wrote:Assuming you're town too, Who is scum to you between Piss/SC/Gamma/Luna?
I've had my fair share of paranoia that I should be pulling the same "you're not this dense" card on pisskop that I pulled on Wisdom, but ergh.-
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pieguyn Survivor
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pieguyn Survivor
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pieguyn Survivor
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your play this game is quite literally some of the worst town play I have ever seen on this site. in any reasonable universe, I'm pretty much conftown, but OH NO, you sit there and throw a tantrum because I don't give you the lynch you want and thanks to you game throwing I have to play around you and waste a night having Luna RB me when there is literally no reason that should be necessary.
I hope to fuck you realize how [[[REDACTED]]] your play here is come postgame.-
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pieguyn Survivor
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pieguyn Survivor
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yeah, thanks for telling me you have literally no idea how to scum huntIn post 2887, pisskop wrote:Setup spec also works against you, and so do your emotional appeals.
and please do explain in what universe "setup spec" works against me here with an IC actually being in the fucking game.-
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pieguyn Survivor
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In post 2888, pisskop wrote:they were confed
just like Varsoon couldn't be the lynch D1, am I right?-
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pieguyn Survivor
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like holy christ you're fucking awful. no, the neighborhood wasn't "confirmed" anything, and I am not even the only one saying that.
and yes, if you have either 9-3-1 or 10-2-2, you usually need town to have a lot of power in order to balance it. this is simple shit...-
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pieguyn Survivor
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btw, thinking I'm lying about my role requires me having decided pregame "o hey let's fake claim backup IC first post" and just hoping to fuck that I'd never be investigated and that there'd be nothing in the game that would be able to disprove the claim. what sense does that make as a scum strategy, again?-
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pieguyn Survivor
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pieguyn Survivor
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I frankly am more than OK with making you lose this game if you're town, just because you're fucking terrible.
plus, as I said, there is a part of me who is paranoid I should be having faith in you as a person and that you would only be this unintelligible if you were scum being dense on purpose.-
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pieguyn Survivor
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if you were actually reading my posts, you would have seen that it was a hypothetical wherein Luna RB's me tonight and a kill happens.
in other words: if she clears me tonight, you will back off and admit you have absolutely no ground to stand on with this nonsense push, or be lynched.-
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pieguyn Survivor
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pieguyn Survivor
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pieguyn Survivor