Mini Normal 1775 END!
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mhsmith0 Balancing Act
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It's tough to say. I get the sense garmr is more convincing than boon, so I don't know who would be likelier to believe boon than garmr in wolf chat.
Also, typically scum don't provide useful info post self hammer, so it could plausibly be a "my buddy is a newbie or pushover" ploy to make people not vote his actual buddy. Then again, who the hell knows.
PS exp is dead. he's town.-
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mhsmith0 Balancing Act
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In post 1612, Garmr wrote:no ploy here my buddy didn't agree with me that they should shoot I didn't want boon or me to shoot.
Who's your buddy again? You can tell me, I promise not to spill the beans. Just put it in spoiler or something; no one will ever think to look there-
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mhsmith0 Balancing Act
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This game is so drunk right now. Loving it. My off the cuff guess is Lowell, but I need to spend more time reading and thinking. My immediate reaction to texcat's death is basically the same as Lord's at http://www.mafiauniverse.com/forums/thr ... post275758
just with a different player
Spoiler: lolol
I suppose we can all have a fun chat about who would have actually shot there today. I'm not familiar with any of you guys so I don't really know who that one points to.
PS If anyone is curious about A50's accusation before his death, go ahead and read over this gem that finished earlier today. He subbed in on day 3 and... well... see for yourselves
http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=11&t=65662
if after reading that, anyone still thinks that he has the slightest clue about how to read my alignment, we can talk. Or you can talk and I'll just
Also, to be VERY clear, that "something he found out" was that he replaced into that game above right at that time and discovered that the slot he replaced into was NOT a wolf. He then proceeded to death tunnel me (I was town), to the point where his unending stream of bullshit got me to mislynch him on day 4. Which I regret (nearly two months of work down the drain just like that)... But I don't think you can look at his ISO in that game and NOT want to lynch him. Even dead chat was like "omg he's the scummiest". Anyway, I'm going to stop before I say something inappropriate.Showhttp://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Mhsmith0
Conq: you, sir, are great at being town.
BATMAN: Only jugg was the only one we didn’t scum read at least not me
Quick: There is little to no chance this slot is Power-Wolfing.
SR: I want to give him a day
Life is simply unfair, don't you think?-
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mhsmith0 Balancing Act
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Frankly, I have no clue wtf the wolf team was doing. The A50 and texcat kills were atrocious. A50 is a VI and was in the ballpark of most peoples' PoE. texcat hadn't been a major factor, and was well inside most peoples' PoE IIRC.
This leads me to think that at least one of the following is true:
1) The kills were made as a frame-up of me, since I'm a newbie, or maybeSayakah_a, since that slot has been pretty peripheral.
2) The kills were made because the Sakura/Riabi slot is the last wolf, and they NEEDED to start to shoot away from the town reads to avoid the whole "so why aren't you dead yet" question
3) The kills were made as a frame-up of Sakura/Riabi
4) The kills were PR hunting gone wrong
5) The kills were just flagrant errors
There are six players left:
heuristically_alone (0):
Riabi (0):
Lowell (0):
mhsmith0 (0):
Dierfire (0):
ToastyToast (0):
almost certainly precisely one of us is a wolf. We have effectively three lynches left to win, presuming that Riabi is still claiming Vengeful (Riabi, please confirm). If Riabi is NOT still claiming Vengeful, it's only two lynches. Either way, we really ought to be good at this stage.
First question I'd have is how familiar people here are with each others' wolf metas. Is there anyone here that seems especially likely to make "bad" NK's? I don't think I've played with anyone still alive as any alignment, and I REALLY don't want to go meta hunting for peoples' NK tendencies if I don't have to.Showhttp://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Mhsmith0
Conq: you, sir, are great at being town.
BATMAN: Only jugg was the only one we didn’t scum read at least not me
Quick: There is little to no chance this slot is Power-Wolfing.
SR: I want to give him a day
Life is simply unfair, don't you think?-
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mhsmith0 Balancing Act
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@ h_a: any other results? or just the one? Given that there's just one wolf left, I'll submit that as evidence that clears me, but I'm not sure it clears you.Showhttp://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Mhsmith0
Conq: you, sir, are great at being town.
BATMAN: Only jugg was the only one we didn’t scum read at least not me
Quick: There is little to no chance this slot is Power-Wolfing.
SR: I want to give him a day
Life is simply unfair, don't you think?-
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mhsmith0 Balancing Act
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@h_a:
1) In your opinion, why did the N1 investigation of my slot in particular make sense?
2) What action, if any, did your slot take N3?
@all: If I understand correctly, h_a is claiming some form of JOAT. Is it "normal" to have both a town-aligned JOAT and a town-aligned JK in this size game?Showhttp://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Mhsmith0
Conq: you, sir, are great at being town.
BATMAN: Only jugg was the only one we didn’t scum read at least not me
Quick: There is little to no chance this slot is Power-Wolfing.
SR: I want to give him a day
Life is simply unfair, don't you think?-
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mhsmith0 Balancing Act
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Right, that's night 4 that you commuted. What about night 3? Also no action?Showhttp://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Mhsmith0
Conq: you, sir, are great at being town.
BATMAN: Only jugg was the only one we didn’t scum read at least not me
Quick: There is little to no chance this slot is Power-Wolfing.
SR: I want to give him a day
Life is simply unfair, don't you think?-
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mhsmith0 Balancing Act
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FWIW, skimming the Sayaka-Maestra-alone triple ISO, at the very least your slot seems to have played this reasonably consistently with what you're claiming (Sayaka's seemingly out of nowhere #1 town read of me early D2, Maestro's "I see why this slot was unconcerned" bit, etc.). But a few things trouble me:
1) I have no idea if JK+JOAT is reasonably balanced or not. Especially given that day talk is dependent on a specific role instead of simply existing.
2) I'm not sure where Maestro was going picking a (drunk) fight with me a while back. Seems a bit odd given his mod-confirm of me.
3) I'm not sure why Sayaka would have investigated me out of everyone here. It seems random. Like, newbies are generally easier to read than experienced players. I guess I need to think on whether that makes sense, or if she just went random, or what.
I guess I need to think on this some more.
@all: presuming the JOAT claim (cop/tracker/commuter), is it standard to do a cop investigation first off the bat? Or is it more normal to wait on that? I haven't been JOAT before, so I don't really know what standard behavior there is.
/ninja'd: Lowell, please confirm that N3 you did nothing.Showhttp://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Mhsmith0
Conq: you, sir, are great at being town.
BATMAN: Only jugg was the only one we didn’t scum read at least not me
Quick: There is little to no chance this slot is Power-Wolfing.
SR: I want to give him a day
Life is simply unfair, don't you think?-
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mhsmith0 Balancing Act
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@Toast: can you give us an update of your chart? And which of those three slots (leader/sheep/lurker) would you put yourself in, and why?
@alone: given that you had Lowell as a "no action" on N3, why were you "most confident" for Lowell as mafia in 1580? It's obviously not a hard clear of any sort, but given only two wolves left, it's a mechanical "makes it less likely" sort of thing, I would think.
@Lowell: do you have updated reads? D4 you thought it was me and dier at 1521? Still think it's dier? Still think it might reasonably be me?Showhttp://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Mhsmith0
Conq: you, sir, are great at being town.
BATMAN: Only jugg was the only one we didn’t scum read at least not me
Quick: There is little to no chance this slot is Power-Wolfing.
SR: I want to give him a day
Life is simply unfair, don't you think?-
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mhsmith0 Balancing Act
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In post 1638, Lowell wrote:Yes, voting me makes all sense. I'm sure we have our shit together enough that both leading wagons were scum.
Kind of a weird comment for someone sitting on zero votes right now. Who do you think is a better wagon?Showhttp://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Mhsmith0
Conq: you, sir, are great at being town.
BATMAN: Only jugg was the only one we didn’t scum read at least not me
Quick: There is little to no chance this slot is Power-Wolfing.
SR: I want to give him a day
Life is simply unfair, don't you think?-
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mhsmith0 Balancing Act
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PS @Lowell: Please confirm you did nothing N3.Showhttp://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Mhsmith0
Conq: you, sir, are great at being town.
BATMAN: Only jugg was the only one we didn’t scum read at least not me
Quick: There is little to no chance this slot is Power-Wolfing.
SR: I want to give him a day
Life is simply unfair, don't you think?-
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mhsmith0 Balancing Act
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In post 1641, Lowell wrote:I did nothing
Obligatory https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dpdgSKVsFu8
More seriously, who do you think is a better wagon than you today?Showhttp://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Mhsmith0
Conq: you, sir, are great at being town.
BATMAN: Only jugg was the only one we didn’t scum read at least not me
Quick: There is little to no chance this slot is Power-Wolfing.
SR: I want to give him a day
Life is simply unfair, don't you think?-
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mhsmith0 Balancing Act
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Re-reading day one. REALLY weird wolf team activity if Lowell was the third. Garmr just kind of sitting on that wagon, boon not really trying all that hard to undo it. And it was town who drove the Madonna wagon pretty hard. I won't say that's clearing, and need to re read the rest, but Lowell may not actually be the right lynch. Not really sure who would be though. More re reading to come I guess.Showhttp://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Mhsmith0
Conq: you, sir, are great at being town.
BATMAN: Only jugg was the only one we didn’t scum read at least not me
Quick: There is little to no chance this slot is Power-Wolfing.
SR: I want to give him a day
Life is simply unfair, don't you think?-
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mhsmith0 Balancing Act
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@all: if we believe alone's claim, then we had a JK, AND a JOAT, AND a universal backup. Is that normal/balanced? I'll admit not really being familiar with how this tends to work, but that seems a bit unbalanced off the cuff, especially given that mafia's day chat depended on one specific role staying alive. Throw in Garmr hammering right after alone voted... I dunno.Showhttp://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Mhsmith0
Conq: you, sir, are great at being town.
BATMAN: Only jugg was the only one we didn’t scum read at least not me
Quick: There is little to no chance this slot is Power-Wolfing.
SR: I want to give him a day
Life is simply unfair, don't you think?-
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mhsmith0 Balancing Act
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I feel like I'm talking to myself, which is always fun. Anyway...
So a bunch of games don't bother listing out roles on page 1 after they're finished, which is super annoying, so I only compared to two:
http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=53&t=63200
mafia has three goons, town has a JK, a cop, and a 1-shot vig
http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=53&t=63461
mafia has two goons and a RB, town has two masons, and a BP, and a doc
Comparing to this game...
mafia has a goon, a day-talker, and a ___
town has a JK, a claimed JOAT, a universal backup, and ___
So unless town has some other kind of notable PR(s), I think alone is reasonably clear at this point. If someone with actual experience in modding or game creation/review wants to counter this logic, feel free. But if a JK, cop AND one-shot vig vs three goons is a balanced setup, then I can't think that JK/backup and all VT vs even two goons + day-talker (much less potentially something more on the mafia side) is also balanced.Showhttp://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Mhsmith0
Conq: you, sir, are great at being town.
BATMAN: Only jugg was the only one we didn’t scum read at least not me
Quick: There is little to no chance this slot is Power-Wolfing.
SR: I want to give him a day
Life is simply unfair, don't you think?-
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mhsmith0 Balancing Act
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PS That said, it'd be hilarious if we had two different mafia fake claim JOAT in the same game. I'd also wonder why this slot didn't go nuts on boon's fake claim, but Sayaka literally wasn't around at the time, so I guess that explains that.Showhttp://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Mhsmith0
Conq: you, sir, are great at being town.
BATMAN: Only jugg was the only one we didn’t scum read at least not me
Quick: There is little to no chance this slot is Power-Wolfing.
SR: I want to give him a day
Life is simply unfair, don't you think?-
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mhsmith0 Balancing Act
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Actually... one other question (I know, I know, it's annoying). Is it standard procedure for a sub to be told the results of his slot's prior night actions? On MU (I play some there too) it's not, so I'd like confirmation of site norms here. If it's not standard operating procedure here, we may have caught our last mafia. If it is standard operating procedure, then never mind.Showhttp://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Mhsmith0
Conq: you, sir, are great at being town.
BATMAN: Only jugg was the only one we didn’t scum read at least not me
Quick: There is little to no chance this slot is Power-Wolfing.
SR: I want to give him a day
Life is simply unfair, don't you think?-
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mhsmith0 Balancing Act
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Figured as much. Worth a shot though.Showhttp://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Mhsmith0
Conq: you, sir, are great at being town.
BATMAN: Only jugg was the only one we didn’t scum read at least not me
Quick: There is little to no chance this slot is Power-Wolfing.
SR: I want to give him a day
Life is simply unfair, don't you think?-
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mhsmith0 Balancing Act
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Voting highlights:
1) Relying ONLY on flips
Spoiler: with flips only
2) From my perspective (with me as town, and presuming that alone's JOAT claim holds up):
Spoiler: with me and alone as town
Current thoughts:
Thoughts:
MHS / alone:
1) Alone is non-CC'd PR in a game which seems pretty likely to have at least three town PR's. He's also gotten a cop result on me of town, which makes me town unless I'm a godfather (which is no longer normal; that switched after game start, so it's not lock, but two mafia PR's strikes me as really weird unless we've got more town PR's who are slow-rolling). So I'm pretty cool assuming both me and alone are town barring something substantive arguing otherwise.
General thoughts:
1) It's REALLY weird that no one still alive was on both the boon and Garmr wagons. I was sort of on the boon wagon (helped drive it up then hopped off post PR claim), so I guess I'm the closest to that model of the last mafia? Good thing I've got that cop clear I guess
Lowell
1) Lowell and Boon being the ONLY two wolf votes on a Sakura wagon that was going NOWHERE is awfully odd if true. Possible explanation being that Lowell was gone towards EOD.
2) Post D1 Lowell wagons have tended to be awfully pure, and never QUITE got to the point where he was in serious danger of a hammer (though he was in danger on D1). That feels like a suspicion point to me.
3) Alone's "lowell stayed home on N3" result isn't clearing, but is a small plus point. I can see the "well the jig is up with Garmr getting JK caught so Garmr does all the kills" logic, so it's a minor point, but it's not totally zero.
Sakura/Riabi
1) VERY little pressure on that slot post Boon lynch. If that's bussing for town credit, it's worked beautifully.
2) Interestingly, that slot post D2 has been well away from the main wagons. Very plausible bus+coast strategy.
GLW/Dierfire
1) This slot has been voting confirmed town a LOT. On Madonna EOD1, on CT EOD2, on Exp EOD3, only vote on a mafia/unknown was Garmr on EOD4.
2) Didn't push the "statistical" case on Garmr so much as essentially sheeped it after I made it (spent quite a lot of time digging into the specifics of the numbers, as opposed to the fundamental issue of "it's about 50%, that's way higher than 25%"). I don't have a problem with him doing any of this (we got Garmr after all), but I don't consider it especially clearing. I got the "let's vote Garmr or Lowell" sense from him, and if he was the third, in a board with a decent number of people suspecting Garmr, it makes reasonable sense as a mafia to try and trade Garmr for Lowell and hope the created town credit holds up (or that town is out of ideas on MYLO).
3) The Texcat NK may point to him in an interesting manner. He'd explicitly town read texcat at 1591; in a board which was suspecting her, that might have been something he didn't really want to deal with going forward. That's a bit WIFOM-y though. Minor point more than anything.
Knight/Toast
1) Was on Lowell EOD1 along with Garmr. Worth digging into to see if it was an awkward voting pair, but it'd be a bit odd for buddies to stay bunched together like that on a wagon that was that far out of style.
2) First on boon D2, but 682 and 683 don't really have the feel of bussing.
3) Pushed back against Garmr lynch.
Overall conclusions:
1) I'm town, I've seen nothing like a CC (or "that role wouldn't be normal/balanced in this game" argument) against alone, so that makes him town.
2) I'm not 100% town reading toast, but right now I feel like he's the least likely mafia of those remaining, barring something notable pointing against knight on the D1 lowell vote, or anything else on toast on re-read.
3) PoE right now is: Dier, Lowell, Riabi, in some order. Not sure which order yet. Need to think on things a lot more.
Anyway, that's where I'm at and where my PoE is at. Alone likes the Riabi wagon. Lowell doesn't like the (currently nonexistent) Lowell wagon. Toast says PoE is alone, Lowell, Riabi. Where is everyone else at?Showhttp://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Mhsmith0
Conq: you, sir, are great at being town.
BATMAN: Only jugg was the only one we didn’t scum read at least not me
Quick: There is little to no chance this slot is Power-Wolfing.
SR: I want to give him a day
Life is simply unfair, don't you think?-
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mhsmith0 Balancing Act
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Lowell, Dier, Riabi, Toast, can you link your last couple town and mafia sided completed games? I won't get around to meta diving ASAP, but I may over the next few days and would rather not have to add "finding the right games" to my task list. (Lowell's user page http://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Lowell seems to either be out of date or not easily sorted).
PS @Lowell: you clearly COULD be the last wolf, but I'm not especially sold on any of the three in my PoE right now. So at least as far as I'm concerned, there's plenty of room for you to argue the point.Showhttp://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Mhsmith0
Conq: you, sir, are great at being town.
BATMAN: Only jugg was the only one we didn’t scum read at least not me
Quick: There is little to no chance this slot is Power-Wolfing.
SR: I want to give him a day
Life is simply unfair, don't you think?-
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mhsmith0 Balancing Act
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*eagerly awaiting wherever this may end up going*Showhttp://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Mhsmith0
Conq: you, sir, are great at being town.
BATMAN: Only jugg was the only one we didn’t scum read at least not me
Quick: There is little to no chance this slot is Power-Wolfing.
SR: I want to give him a day
Life is simply unfair, don't you think?-
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mhsmith0 Balancing Act
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Tex is dead. Are you paying attention at all Lowell?
Ps what's my obvscumminess?Showhttp://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Mhsmith0
Conq: you, sir, are great at being town.
BATMAN: Only jugg was the only one we didn’t scum read at least not me
Quick: There is little to no chance this slot is Power-Wolfing.
SR: I want to give him a day
Life is simply unfair, don't you think?-
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mhsmith0 Balancing Act
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In post 1666, Lowell wrote:oh, no, I guess not. Just went by the "alive" list on page 1. blame the mod, not me.
Given that it's been a topic of discussion today, I'm gonna have to go withderpclear denied(that may be my new favorite mafia phrase btw )
PS You may enjoy http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 9#p7885399. Well, presuming alone's claim holds up, I guess there's about a 25% chance you won't... But more seriously, how familiar are you with the rest of the field? Who here has a bad night game?Showhttp://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Mhsmith0
Conq: you, sir, are great at being town.
BATMAN: Only jugg was the only one we didn’t scum read at least not me
Quick: There is little to no chance this slot is Power-Wolfing.
SR: I want to give him a day
Life is simply unfair, don't you think?-
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mhsmith0 Balancing Act
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FWIW, right now I get the sense dier is going to in some manner counter-claim alone. I am 100% not voting ANYONE until that situation gets cleared up.
Frankly, a game where mafia has a PR (apparently it's generally "normal" for it to be night talk only barring a PR like we have, unless I'm misunderstanding site norms somehow) and town only has a JK and a backup seems strangely mafia-sided compared to site norms (based on my admittedly half-assed research). Whether what seems like a pretty mediocre JOAT (cop/tracker/commuter) makes up for it or not, or instead overpowers the town, that I don't know.
Other info: I am not counter-claiming alone at this time. I am making no claim at all with respect to my role at this time.
PS FWIW, I firmly believe that my sig (courtesy of the anti head of the KC hydra, from the only non-turbo game I've ever actually been on the winning side of) does not apply in this game. Hopefully we win and I can get a sig less embarrassing than this one.
PPS My sig points to my games. My off-site games shouldn't be hard to find given the info there (the wiki won't let me link directly off site for whatever reason).Showhttp://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Mhsmith0
Conq: you, sir, are great at being town.
BATMAN: Only jugg was the only one we didn’t scum read at least not me
Quick: There is little to no chance this slot is Power-Wolfing.
SR: I want to give him a day
Life is simply unfair, don't you think?-
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mhsmith0 Balancing Act
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In post 1673, heuristically_alone wrote:Mafia would have more motivation to answer this call, while a town would be like whatever I'm town and that's too much work so it won't matter, even though it seems towny to oblige to this request. So far, Dier is the only to respond.
not really. I mean I've basically implied that I was likely going to start meta diving people (and the fact that I DID meta dive boon suggests that I'll likely follow through), and that it'd be considerate to let me avoid some of the work involved in simply finding the games. Off the top of my head, I don't find it especially AI whether someone is considerate or not about this sort of request; why do you think it's mafia-indicative to oblige? I mean, I kind of think it'd be a dumb mafia strategy to stonewall on this since I'm clearly going to try to find the relevant games anyway, but then again, two of the three NK's we've seen this game seemed dumb to me, and the third wasn't a good kill so much as it was a super-obvious kill (Garmr bitching about the N1 kill decision suggests that one also might have been dumb, but that's WIFOM-y so I'm fine with ignoring that piece of evidence at this time).
PS Have you ever fake claimed as mafia before? Trust me, I'm going to look. Might as well answer it now so I don't have to waste my time looking.Showhttp://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Mhsmith0
Conq: you, sir, are great at being town.
BATMAN: Only jugg was the only one we didn’t scum read at least not me
Quick: There is little to no chance this slot is Power-Wolfing.
SR: I want to give him a day
Life is simply unfair, don't you think?-
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mhsmith0 Balancing Act
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So as long as we're trying to figure out if alone's claim is real or fake (and I 100% REFUSE TO VOTE FOR ANYONE until that discussion moves forward)...
1) For everyone who's been here since day 1 (others feel free to weigh in too if you want): if you were a JOAT (cop/tracker/commuter), would you have used your one shot N1? And if so, who would you have used it on? I feel like I was kind of a weird/random choice. Like, maybe a mafia role cop might have checked me out as being a likelier 1-shot cop use on my slot compared to a one-shot town alignment cop doing that. Lowell (the day 1 counter-wagon) seems like the super obvious alignment cop target, with chilledtea (the hammerer) also pretty reasonable.
2) Given the claim of an alignment check on me, why would Maestro get into an argument with me? It seems odd. Maybe a playstyle thing, or a drunk thing, those are possible but I dunno.
3) If you presume that a JK/backup is "not enough"... is a JOAT like alone claims enough? Too much? What are your thoughts on game balance?Showhttp://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Mhsmith0
Conq: you, sir, are great at being town.
BATMAN: Only jugg was the only one we didn’t scum read at least not me
Quick: There is little to no chance this slot is Power-Wolfing.
SR: I want to give him a day
Life is simply unfair, don't you think?-
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mhsmith0 Balancing Act
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@alone: are you claiming any more JOAT abilities? Notably, do you have a 1-shot vig on your list? If you want to demur for whatever other abilities you may or may not have, that's fine, but I need a yes or no on whether you have a vig shot. If you're town with a 1-shot vig, town essentially has three lynches. If you're not, then we're at two. You need to clarify this point. Also, if you DO have a 1-shot vig, you're taking it tonight. Period. If you claim vig tonight and don't shoot, you get lynched. If you claim you holstered it for whatever reason, you get power lynched. No song and dance tomorrow about how "town effectively has two lynches left if they don't lynch me".
In post 1676, Lowell wrote:Anyone who doesn't use one-shot abilities N1 is a dumbass.
That's kind of side-stepping the actual point I was getting at. I'll break it out further:
1) Why does it make sense to use the cop shot instead of tracker or commuter N1?
2) Why does it make sense to use the cop shot on me instead of you, CT, or anyone else? Would you have done the same in his position? Is that a reasonable choice for target of that power? Given a "generic player x" read of the board, I feel like Lowell would be a pretty likely alignment cop target (counter-wagon, under a lot of suspicion, unlikely NK).
Moreover, given the early day 2 positions that Sayaka represented to the board at 601 through 603 (especially the bit about CT's hammer being horrible), CT would be a alignment cop target consistent with where she was representing her positions (i.e. I'd think she would REALLY want to know if that was just a bad hammer from town or if it was a mafia tactic).
and while we're at it:
3) Lowell, what do you think of the N2 holster claim?
PS why anyone other than alone would want to lynch Dier or anyone else without alone's claim being scrutinized and evaluated and is beyond me. The simple possibility that alone could fake claim and coast from his gambit to a come from behind him should be scary as hell. I don't know why I'm not seeing more concern about this possibility.
/ninjad: fair enough. That kind of situation is never fun.Showhttp://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Mhsmith0
Conq: you, sir, are great at being town.
BATMAN: Only jugg was the only one we didn’t scum read at least not me
Quick: There is little to no chance this slot is Power-Wolfing.
SR: I want to give him a day
Life is simply unfair, don't you think?-
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mhsmith0 Balancing Act
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So at this point I'd say there are three potential lines of reasoning people could make to invalidate alone's claim:
1) "JK+JOAT+UB is unbalanced in this setup, while JK+UB is balanced"
Personally I tend to disagree with this take, given the games I'd looked at in comparison. But I've never modded a game here, and this is my first mini normal here, so I'm not speaking with any kind of expertise at all (I know, I know, the newbie excuse... deal with it )
2) "I'm a PR, my PR + JK+JOAT+UB is unbalanced in this setup while my PR + JK + UB is balanced"
It's probably super obvious at this point, but I'm VT. If I wasn't, I'd probably have already made this argument.
3) "I'm a PR, and I have a result that specifically counters alone's claim"
Again, I don't have this.
Right now I can't make arguments 1, 2, 3, or anything else that specifically counters alone's claim. I feel like people should go on record as signing off on alone's claim (or countering it) explicitly keeping these things in mind. I want EVERYONE to weigh in on the validity of the claim before we do anything else. I know this is annoying, but I think it's important. With no counter-claims (explicit PR claims, game balance commentary or otherwise), we can move forward on an actual lynch. But I can't help this feeling that the claim is probably fake. It just feels off given the game state. If no one counters, then I'm wrong. Won't be the first time, won't be the last time. But I'm not doing anything else until/unless it's resolved.Showhttp://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Mhsmith0
Conq: you, sir, are great at being town.
BATMAN: Only jugg was the only one we didn’t scum read at least not me
Quick: There is little to no chance this slot is Power-Wolfing.
SR: I want to give him a day
Life is simply unfair, don't you think?-
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mhsmith0 Balancing Act
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In post 1679, Dierfire wrote:I have no information that contradicts Alone's claim. The only thing that worries me is that he's reporting what appears to be a Tracker result (on Lowell N3) but calling it a Watcher result, which is the sort of thing that should be difficult to do if he actually has the PM in front of him.
If his claim does check out, I'll be looking at Lowell (I think that yesterday's wagons could easily have been cross-voting Mafia) or perhaps ToastyToast (who, having claimed VT, was apparently not communicating a clear result on me).
Dier, you've been in a bunch of games it looks like. Is it your opinion that, given the flips so far (mafia goon+daytalker), that town JK+UB is balanced, and JK+JOAT+UB is unbalanced? Can you point to any specific games you've been in where the roles are reasonable close to this flipped/claimed?Showhttp://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Mhsmith0
Conq: you, sir, are great at being town.
BATMAN: Only jugg was the only one we didn’t scum read at least not me
Quick: There is little to no chance this slot is Power-Wolfing.
SR: I want to give him a day
Life is simply unfair, don't you think?-
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mhsmith0 Balancing Act
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At any rate... last call if anyone wants to counter alone. Because I'm going to have a pretty hard time believing anyone who's going to claim they were just sitting on a PR claim going forward.Showhttp://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Mhsmith0
Conq: you, sir, are great at being town.
BATMAN: Only jugg was the only one we didn’t scum read at least not me
Quick: There is little to no chance this slot is Power-Wolfing.
SR: I want to give him a day
Life is simply unfair, don't you think?-
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mhsmith0 Balancing Act
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I think the norm is 3 PR's (with backup counting as one of them when it exists). I think sometimes you see 4 when you have roles that don't actually do anything active (like masons), but I'm kinda guessing there. Unfortunate about the vig, but I suppose that'd be too much to shoot for. Lynch/vig inside Dier/Lowell/Riabi -> pop bottles. Guess we actually have work for it instead thenShowhttp://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Mhsmith0
Conq: you, sir, are great at being town.
BATMAN: Only jugg was the only one we didn’t scum read at least not me
Quick: There is little to no chance this slot is Power-Wolfing.
SR: I want to give him a day
Life is simply unfair, don't you think?-
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mhsmith0 Balancing Act
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In post 1693, Lowell wrote:Finally this dierfire wagon is picking up steam. Took you guys forever to just sack up and vote.
"Alone might be fakeclaiming" was a super important point to consider. I have every right to grind the game state to a halt until that got resolved.
@Dier: who among the survivors is likeliest mafia if you flip green? Based on 1591 you think it's Lowell. Still there or anyone else? I'm leaning towards you as last mafia, but I'm not sold on it yet (I'd consider Lowell and Riabi both as plausible last mafia instead). In case the wagon is wrong, I'd like to hear your voice on things.Showhttp://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Mhsmith0
Conq: you, sir, are great at being town.
BATMAN: Only jugg was the only one we didn’t scum read at least not me
Quick: There is little to no chance this slot is Power-Wolfing.
SR: I want to give him a day
Life is simply unfair, don't you think?-
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mhsmith0 Balancing Act
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As far as this Dier wagon goes, I feel like the votes on it are all gross. I mean, he MIGHT be the last mafia, but some kind of convincing reasoning would be super helpful.
ninja'd: yeah, that's probably fair, at least wrt the NK. The whole "is this a fake claim" bit I did feel like needed to be thought about.
Actually, that said...
Alone, Riabi: You both said that the NK points to Dier, and that read seem to be the main basis of your votes. Why does the kill point to Dier? Since this seems to be the basis for your votes, I'm sure you can effectively explain the reasoning to us.Showhttp://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Mhsmith0
Conq: you, sir, are great at being town.
BATMAN: Only jugg was the only one we didn’t scum read at least not me
Quick: There is little to no chance this slot is Power-Wolfing.
SR: I want to give him a day
Life is simply unfair, don't you think?-
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mhsmith0 Balancing Act
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Actually, since alone is the non CC'd PR, I'd like Riabi to go first. Riabi, you put Dier at L-1 apparently due ONLY to a NK read. That's a pretty strong move without much support behind it. You really need to explain your thoughts here to the rest of the class.Showhttp://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Mhsmith0
Conq: you, sir, are great at being town.
BATMAN: Only jugg was the only one we didn’t scum read at least not me
Quick: There is little to no chance this slot is Power-Wolfing.
SR: I want to give him a day
Life is simply unfair, don't you think?-
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mhsmith0 Balancing Act
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VOTE: Lowell
I feel like this is the best option at this stage.
1) PoE: I'm not seeing Toast as mafia, I hate some of alone's posts but his claim is holding up... and I don't think the cases on Dier or Riabi are particularly compelling.
2) Proven mafia flips:
Boon's treatment of Lowell (the non hammer from a hammer-happy player) was weird, and Garmr's "boon almost outed the third" very well could have been this
But IMO Garmr's treatment sticks out more:In post 994, Boonskiies wrote:Lowell, I faught to save you yesterday. At least unvote me so I don't get quick hammered.
- day 1 strong wolf read, suddenly it went away on day 2, little interest day 3, suddenly back with a vengeance on day 4.
- mutual RVS targeting is, from what I can tell, a reasonably common wolf play.
- chainsaw defended lowell by attacking chilledtea for vote parking, see 711. Also,
makes a LOT of sense if Garmr and Lowell are mafia togetherIn post 727, Expedience wrote:...
I felt like Garmr was scum during n1 after Madonna was lynched from the way he was saying he would rather lynch Lowell based on not much, yet he still supported lynching Madonna (since it occured to me that both were probably town). And now like, I dunno, he sees an easier target (chilledtea) and suddenly drops his scumread on Lowell (who he had been tunneling all game)? To be completely fair I could see this coming from town, but it still makes me suspect him.
...
3) That day 2 vote...
Normally it's really weird for two mafia to be together on a wagon at EOD like this. But this was a weird vote, and "Lowell wasn't around" is actually a completely plausible explanation for why he didn't move away from the Sakura wagon after it became clear that it was going nowhere.In post 1036, Lowell wrote:VOTE: sakura
I won't be happy until I've voted everyone! I don't have a case here, other than I believe boon and have strong townvibes on exp. So sure let's make this happen.
4) NK motive. Probably the strongest motivation here was Lowell's, since texcat was hard after him. It's easier to "change" your read (wolf!dier) or just sit back and let the ML happen (just about anyone) than it is to shake off someone who's hard on your case. If the NK made sense at all (and I still think it was a poor kill regardless), it made sense from Lowell's slot.
5) I hate making this a reason... but it's a potentially good lynch for information. Lowell has been under fire a LOT this game... if he was town, then we can look a lot harder on how everyone has treated his wagons day by day. Without knowing that he's town, I don't know how we can fairly evaluate his interactions.
Anyway, Lowell is where I'm at. If I'm wrong, we have one more shot at it. But I don't think I'm wrong.Showhttp://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Mhsmith0
Conq: you, sir, are great at being town.
BATMAN: Only jugg was the only one we didn’t scum read at least not me
Quick: There is little to no chance this slot is Power-Wolfing.
SR: I want to give him a day
Life is simply unfair, don't you think?-
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mhsmith0 Balancing Act
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1) This was the "nearly outing our buddy" quote, fwiwIn post 1603, Garmr wrote:Like when I was jailkeeped night one I didn't have a choose in making the kill I was strongly opposed only a idiot would have the person who the only person who was town read by the majority to make the kill in case of watcher or jailkeeper or some other role that could nab me. But we have this weird voting system that's like lynching aka majority rules gah. Hell I wanted to kill exp night one because I knew he would cast suspicion on me but boon managed to convince the other scum buddy to vote his way which is absolute bs. If I was left to take charge the scum team wouldn't be in such a horrible position but.no one listens to garmr
Don't even get me started on the fake jail keeper claim and nearly outing our other buddy by accident.
2) I listened to garmr... just (probably) not in the way he wanted!Showhttp://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Mhsmith0
Conq: you, sir, are great at being town.
BATMAN: Only jugg was the only one we didn’t scum read at least not me
Quick: There is little to no chance this slot is Power-Wolfing.
SR: I want to give him a day
Life is simply unfair, don't you think?-
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mhsmith0 Balancing Act
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Because ___? There's IMO a pretty decent amount of evidence against you, and I don't see the "Lowell is town" case beyond "town is too dumb to have had the right two wagons yesterday" and a bit of WIFOM stuff. If you think it's wrong, argue against it. "Oh it's wrong" isn't much of an argument though.In post 1719, Lowell wrote:smith, you can't be serious. your analysis is impossibly boring and wrong
Moreover, I don't see any kind of strong case against anyone else. If you want to sell the Dier case as being correct, go for it. So far the votes on him seem to be "he talked about associations" and "because night kill". Is there much more than that? Because if that's it, I'd much rather lynch you first and then re-evaluate him tomorrow.Showhttp://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Mhsmith0
Conq: you, sir, are great at being town.
BATMAN: Only jugg was the only one we didn’t scum read at least not me
Quick: There is little to no chance this slot is Power-Wolfing.
SR: I want to give him a day
Life is simply unfair, don't you think?-
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mhsmith0 Balancing Act
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If it was Lowell-Garmr, then they had to have been distancing D4, trying to create the idea that it's only one or the other (or they were just that pissed off at each other I guess). I also feel like wolf chat would be potentially amusing if that was the team. I mean, regardless of what the team was I now REALLY want to see what went down night 1In post 1721, ToastyToast wrote:Lowell has had a wagon on him every day but it has always swung at some point. The pattern is actually strikingly consistent.
-Garmr did rest his vote on Lowell on Day 1 when the wagon shifted to Madonna. Not sure if this is something inherently scummy but it does stick out to me given Garmr seemed to always go in the Lowell direction.
My question from that though is...why Lowell? Garmr kept going back to that read. With only one buddy left after boons died, would Garmr have reason to vote Lowell-scum?
Also this is more just an observation but Garmr self-lynched himself because of his scumbuddy (apparently boonskiis specifically) but I feel like Garmr would be even more annoyed if his other buddy was Lowell. Like, yikes, I can't wait to see the scum teams convos if that is the case
I just look at the game state and go, yeah, it COULD be Riabi with Sakura bussing Boon and then just resting on laurels after that, and yeah it COULD be Dier somehow, and yeah it COULD be alone fake-claiming... but Lowell just fits together better with Boon and Garmr than anyone else.
If Lowell was town, it's also just WEIRD that Garmr was super pushy on Lowell day 1 (while Boon basically bailed Lowell out), then basically ignored him wrt voting on day 2, then pushed on Exp day 3, and only then went back to Lowell day 4. But if Lowell was mafia... then it makes sense. If Lowell is mafia, the game state makes sense overall in a way that I'm struggling to see from anyone else. It's a more minor point (and WIFOM-y), but it ALSO explains why the third mafia would have listened to Boon on N1, given that Garmr was bussing and Boon was helping Lowell out. I'm trying to think of who would inherently be inclined to listen to Boon over Garmr, when Garmr seems to be generally more persuasive, and it's either someone who doesn't like Garmr out of game, or someone Boon was friends with out of game, or someone who in game had been buddied by Boon and/or angered by Garmr.
The only slot where I can really see Boon buddying up to in a meaningful way would be Lowell's slot. I mean, I raked in the Boonie points so that's something I guess, but IIRC I wasn't much interacting with Garmr early on, and I feel like that N1 chat result would have been someone having been pissed off by Garmr... and among the living players, that sure seems like Lowell disliking Garmr's distancing/bussing and/or being grateful for Boon going to bat for him on D1.
I mean, the more I think about it, the more it makes sense, and the less I'm able to see any kind of disqualifying evidence. If such evidence exists, great, lord knows I've been wrong before and will be again. But right now I just really struggle to see Lowell NOT being partner #3.Showhttp://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Mhsmith0
Conq: you, sir, are great at being town.
BATMAN: Only jugg was the only one we didn’t scum read at least not me
Quick: There is little to no chance this slot is Power-Wolfing.
SR: I want to give him a day
Life is simply unfair, don't you think?-
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mhsmith0 Balancing Act
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Chilled tea claimed jailkeeper. He's dead. Madonna is backup, and alone claimed joat. Everyone else VT.Showhttp://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Mhsmith0
Conq: you, sir, are great at being town.
BATMAN: Only jugg was the only one we didn’t scum read at least not me
Quick: There is little to no chance this slot is Power-Wolfing.
SR: I want to give him a day
Life is simply unfair, don't you think?-
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mhsmith0 Balancing Act
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In post 1730, Lowell wrote:What's say we just skip the last part and go right to lynching dier, the obvious final scum. smith, it seems strange that you of all people think associative tells are useless all of a sudden. be better.
What are the associative tells that point to Dier? IIRC your case was basically that he relied on them and that made him mafia. Are there strong tells that point to him? Given that you're very likely to be today's lynch (the case on you seems to be the strongest), if you want to build the case so that in case we're wrong, we can lynch him tomorrow, that'd be helpful to be honest. Right now I'm really not seeing much of a Dier case.Showhttp://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Mhsmith0
Conq: you, sir, are great at being town.
BATMAN: Only jugg was the only one we didn’t scum read at least not me
Quick: There is little to no chance this slot is Power-Wolfing.
SR: I want to give him a day
Life is simply unfair, don't you think?-
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mhsmith0 Balancing Act
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I think you're going to actually have to spell out how it makes no sense, because I think it does make sense given Boon/Gamr's behavior, most notably:
1) Boon "going to bat" for you on day 1
2) Garmr seemingly strategically dropping his "suspicion" of you on days 2 and 3 before roaring back on day 4
Like I said, I could easily be wrong. It happens a lot. So if it doesn't make sense, explain to me how it doesn't make sense. IMO the evidence against you is pretty convincing, and the evidence against anyone else is pretty weak.Showhttp://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Mhsmith0
Conq: you, sir, are great at being town.
BATMAN: Only jugg was the only one we didn’t scum read at least not me
Quick: There is little to no chance this slot is Power-Wolfing.
SR: I want to give him a day
Life is simply unfair, don't you think?-
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mhsmith0 Balancing Act
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FWIW, I really think the overall story of the game was:
Day 1 - Garmr bussed Lowell for town credit. Madonna stepped in to save Lowell and got herself killed off instead. Or, as I heard in a different game "unsuccessful bussing is the best kind of bussing"
Night 1 - Garmr's bussing pissed Lowell off, and they had a fight about it, Boon sided with Lowell, and then Garmr was forced to make the kill (and got blocked by CT)
Day 2 - Garmr stopped bussing Lowell, which made his positions start to look awkward and arbitrary (and he got called out on this), and Boon accidentally outed himself by going nuts over Toast's "lurker" assignment.
Day 3 - "Hang Exp day"
Day 4 - Garmr and Lowell bussed each other. Whether because of unresolved anger between them or because they simply didn't have better options, I don't know.
Day 5 - Here we are.
I get that it's a narrative and all, but as a story of the game, it all holds together in a logical and sensible way. It's not the only possible explanation, but I just don't see how it DOESN'T hold together.Showhttp://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Mhsmith0
Conq: you, sir, are great at being town.
BATMAN: Only jugg was the only one we didn’t scum read at least not me
Quick: There is little to no chance this slot is Power-Wolfing.
SR: I want to give him a day
Life is simply unfair, don't you think?-
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mhsmith0 Balancing Act
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Since I really struggle imagine a world in which we don't lynch Lowell today, and really struggle to imagine that lynch not being the correct one, as notes for the future:
In post 1663, Lowell wrote:Offhand thoughts:
heuristically_alone: buying the claim, town
Riabi: looks scummy, but meh still think predecessor's argument w/ boon was real, town
mhsmith0: buying h_a's claim, town despite obvscumminess
texcat: totally forgettable player, tried to string me up instead of garmr, scummy
Dierfire: I don't remember what's happening here
ToastyToast: early townreads, town
VOTE: dier
If not, then tex. Either one is fine.
To me, this is a really gross vote. It's basically a "eh, screw it, let's just vote dier" sort of thing. I don't understand at all how I was "obvscum", and it was clear you didn't wnat to talk about it, which makes me think it was just fake. And the texcat read was sketchy; as if you were reading her mafia mainly because she was wrong, as opposed to specific mafia behaviors.
I also thought the underlying "I didn't realize texcat was dead" bit was non-credible. If you were aware of the thread state enough to realize that people had some interest in your lynch (though votes hadn't been made yet), you should have been aware enough to realize texcat was dead.
PS The fundamental problem with the texcat NK was that lowell really was the only person with kill motive there as mafia. Anyone else as the last mafia would/should have been happy to let texcat and lowell go at it, and more or less stand back and watch the last two mislynches go through. Even wolf!dier with his town read of texcat could have just turned that into a "sure, let's lynch lowell" on D5, and then D6 "changed his mind" and offed texcat, letting her take the blame for the D5 mislynch of lowell. I'm not really sure who each player (if the last mafia) would want dead, but any "last mafia" outside of tex-lowell would/should have shot anywhere else. For instance:
if I was last mafia: I'd shoot alone or toast. Shooting alone would mean I was scared that he might have another useful ability, and I wanted to lock in an "all VT" setup (especially true if I was godfather). OTOH, I could, and probably would, have just shot toast (a town read) as a "no one has special kill motive there" shot.
if alone was last mafia: possibly he should kill me to lock in his JOAT claim. The downside there is that he'd get "why are you still alive" questions on D6, so maybe he'd shoot toast or riabi or dier instead.
if toast/riabi/dier: lots of options. basically could reasonably shoot anyone outside of texcat/lowell and just ride out the wave. Probably would shoot alone, or me (due to alone's claim), or toast.
PPS That advice is probably a bit condescending, and I do apologize for that part. If it makes you feel any better, my wolf game is HORRIBLE. Like, to the point where I don't even get to think through night game because I keep getting lynched quickly. So basically I have understanding of strategy but am poor at operationalizing it and terrible at blending in with town. So you know, you can at least reasonably think to yourself that if MHS was mafia, the game would have been over before nowShowhttp://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Mhsmith0
Conq: you, sir, are great at being town.
BATMAN: Only jugg was the only one we didn’t scum read at least not me
Quick: There is little to no chance this slot is Power-Wolfing.
SR: I want to give him a day
Life is simply unfair, don't you think?-
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mhsmith0 Balancing Act
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No one seems to be in any kind of rush to end the day, so for kicks here's the voting history presuming Lowell is somehow actually town (and alone's claim continues to hold up):
Spoiler: with lowell as town
To me this game state doesn't really make much sense.
If the last mafia:
GLW/dier
D1: Off the Lowell wagon along with Boon, but hops right onto Madonna when she starts to look bad. Shows a clear preference for lynching Madonna there. Not sure why he'd do that as mafia, unless it was solely for the purpose of blending in.
D2: hesitant to vote (IIRC he was absentee), and then ends the day on CT. Odd but not impossible.
D3: hops on the Exp wagon right around when it makes sense to push it towards inevitability. Plausible.
D4: no hurry to vote Lowell. Sheeps my statistical case on Garmr. If Garmr hammered to protect a buddy on the wagon and it wasn't Lowell, it makes sense here.
N4: no idea why he'd kill texcat when texcat would be tunnelling Lowell pretty hard
D5: happy to get onto Lowell. If last mafia, is looking to extend things however possible while under pressure.
Conclusion: possible final mafia, but the case doesn't particularly jump out at me.
knight/toast
D1: voted Lowell right alongside Garmr, stayed there through day end. Bizarre voting pattern to have two mafia bunching votes there.
D2: no rush to vote at all, until the boon wagon. If he's the last mafia, then he and Garmr hard-core bussed Boon, for seemingly little reason (and in that case, Boon was faking anger at toast as part of theater). To me this makes no sense at all.
D3: Hops onto a different wagon than Garmr. Plausible distancing behavior here I guess.
D4: Not voting at all. Weird behavior if last mafia.
N4: no idea why he'd kill texcat when texcat would be tunnelling Lowell pretty hard
D5: Hesitant to vote, not in any kind of rush to just get through a mislynch. If last mafia, he's completely dedicated to maintaining thread position and "looking town".
Conclusion: I just can't see it at all. Like, if Toast is the last mafia then he has been amazing at looking town, barring my just totally missing the signs.
Sakura/Riabi
D1: On Lowell, then on Madonna. I need to look at how credible the wagon-switching was.
D2: Gets in fight with Exp, then (IIRC) bounces around a while, then goes nuts on Boon. Given the long-standing preference for lynching Exp (especially given Garmr's discussed fear of Exp), it's possible she pushed that, saw it wouldn't work, and then made it up by hard-core bussing Boon when things started to look bad for Boon.
D3: Well off of the Exp wagon. Plausible coasting on town credit. Need to re-look at the Dier voting to see if it was legit or not.
D4: well off of the Garmr lynch. It's a bit odd that Garmr would self-hammer with his buddy not on board, but that's what WIFOM is for. IIRC Riabi was kind of vote parking on my slot that day, with a
N4: no idea why he'd kill texcat when texcat would be tunnelling Lowell pretty hard
D5: happy to jump on the Dier wagon for "kill motive" (and he STILL hasn't bothered to explain his reasoning)
Conclusion: plausible final mafia, likelier than Dier off the cuff. The narrative of "bussing for town credit, then just coasting the rest of the way" reasonably fits IMO.
Overall, I still think we should lynch Lowell as likeliest mafia, then tomorrow (if we're wrong) probably lynch Riabi, with reasonable consideration given to lynching Dier instead. If someone wants to hard-sell lynching Riabi first I'll listen, and if someone wants to hard-sell lynching Dier instead of Lowell/Riabi I'll listen. But I feel like Lowell and then (on the off chance we're wrong) Riabi really should get us the win.
PS If someone has an explicit "Lowell is town because ___" case I'll listen. So far I haven't actually seen anything remotely convincing. If I'm just tunneling, I want to see the counter-argument.Showhttp://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Mhsmith0
Conq: you, sir, are great at being town.
BATMAN: Only jugg was the only one we didn’t scum read at least not me
Quick: There is little to no chance this slot is Power-Wolfing.
SR: I want to give him a day
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mhsmith0 Balancing Act
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edit to above: alone currently is on Lowell, not Dier. Missed that one when just copying over FAQ2's counts.Showhttp://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Mhsmith0
Conq: you, sir, are great at being town.
BATMAN: Only jugg was the only one we didn’t scum read at least not me
Quick: There is little to no chance this slot is Power-Wolfing.
SR: I want to give him a day
Life is simply unfair, don't you think?-
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mhsmith0 Balancing Act
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@toast: see
http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=65746
Spoiler: alive
Spoiler: dead
For role flips. JK/UB are proven dead. Mafia has at least one PR (one is dead, and who knows what the final mafia role is). As far as I know, town never has just 2 PR's in this kind of setup (13 person normal, no SK), especially when mafia has 1+ PR, and especially when the second PR is a backup. So alone, by way of being the ONLY PR claim alive, has to be clear regardless of what I may think of his posting. That was the whole point of my discussion earlier today; I thought he might reasonably be fake-claiming, but everyone else has claimed VT, so he can't be fake claiming, and he definitely can't be a mafia JOAT given the town powers on the board if all others are VT.
PS the absolute final deadline for any kind of CC to alone is today's hammer. Anyone who claims after that hammer (whether today twilight or tomorrow) WILL be considered fake-claiming by me.Showhttp://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Mhsmith0
Conq: you, sir, are great at being town.
BATMAN: Only jugg was the only one we didn’t scum read at least not me
Quick: There is little to no chance this slot is Power-Wolfing.
SR: I want to give him a day
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@Lowell: I really don't think you can survive today. So either come up with a really compelling explanation of why you simply don't make sense as the last mafia, or give us a really compelling explanation for why it has to be Dier. Right now I'm thinking Dier is the least likely among Dier/Riabi/Lowell, so make a serious attempt to change my mind on this. You say he's "the obvious final scum", so you really should be able to build a pretty compelling case if that's truly what you think.Showhttp://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Mhsmith0
Conq: you, sir, are great at being town.
BATMAN: Only jugg was the only one we didn’t scum read at least not me
Quick: There is little to no chance this slot is Power-Wolfing.
SR: I want to give him a day
Life is simply unfair, don't you think?-
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mhsmith0 Balancing Act
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Re reading day 4...
1) garmr and Lowell were basically "oh I guess I might as well vote for you". Quick voted each other but no strong drive to each other's wagons. Alone called it coordinated... and it looks that way to me. Like both were distancing but really hoping that some other wagon would pick up steam instead. Seriously, double iso them, from post 1500 on, and convince yourself that EITHER of them were particularly interested in the others lynch.
1503, 1509, 1514, 1521, 1523, 1560... Compare those to 1381 (garmr on dier), 1296-7 (Lowell on me), those seem a lot more invested than garmr and Lowell on each other.
2) That garmr lynch was bizarrely easy. No meaningful resistance to it once it got going. Where was garmr's buddy trying to save him? If Lowell was town, with substantial board interest in his mislynch, why abandon a plausible mislynch on Lowell?
If it was riabi, he was screwing around with voting me and being a non factor, even as garmr was in danger. 1568 would be an incredibly half hearted attempt to save his buddy, at a time when a stronger push might have done it.
If it was dier, he made an attempt to go for Lowell, and just more or less gave up. Ditto alone.
If it was toast, he just wasn't around enough to really impact things, but he's another who made no real effort to save garmr (though he was sniffing around other potential possibilities, so not impossible I guess).
If Lowell was garmr's buddy, though, he basically couldn't have acted to save garmr given that he was counter wagon, and again it makes sense, more sense than the other possibilities.
Frankly, I'm satisfied. It's not 100%, but I'm thinking something like 75% odds Lowell is the last one. And if we're wrong, we can deal with the remaining options tomorrow. Someone please either hammer or make a convincing argument that I'm wrong. This game state is dull, it feels like people are just sitting around for no good reason. Hammer Lowell or push hard for something else.Showhttp://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Mhsmith0
Conq: you, sir, are great at being town.
BATMAN: Only jugg was the only one we didn’t scum read at least not me
Quick: There is little to no chance this slot is Power-Wolfing.
SR: I want to give him a day
Life is simply unfair, don't you think?-
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mhsmith0 Balancing Act
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Lowell, if you're town, please make a serious case for someone else as the final mafia. Given that I'm leaning Riabi if it's not you (and I think toast is too), if you really think it's Dier, it's incumbent on you to make an actual case. OTOH, if you're mafia, you're almost certainly not going to escape getting lynched today, much less today AND tomorrow, so I'd say just self-hammer at this point and move on to the post game.Showhttp://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Mhsmith0
Conq: you, sir, are great at being town.
BATMAN: Only jugg was the only one we didn’t scum read at least not me
Quick: There is little to no chance this slot is Power-Wolfing.
SR: I want to give him a day
Life is simply unfair, don't you think?-
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mhsmith0 Balancing Act
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SO bored with this game right now. I know what it needs: more charts!
Spoiler: with Sakura/riabi as last mafia
FWIW, I can actually live with this as a case for Riabi being the last mafia. The Lowell case looks stronger to me, but the voting patterns are almost classic mafia team voting patterns (presuming Lowell is somehow town):
Day 1 - avoiding bunching, and Sakura is happy to lynch either townie wagon for scummy-looking behavior
Day 2 - Sakura prominently tries to get Expedience lynched (which plausibly makes sense if she's spooked about him going after Garmr), and then VERY prominently puts herself on the Boon wagon. Per https://docs.google.com/document/d/1-0x ... ef=2&pli=1
Day 3 - non-factor. Throwaway vote on Dier. Doubtcasts the Exp wagon, but not so heavily as to actually derail it. Also makes sure that we know the vengeful claim was false; if Garmr was doomed sooner or later, then as mafia would REALLY want us to know that we shouldn't lynch her just for the claimAs a related point, you can say that if a scum is lynched relatively early in the game then it is pretty likely that at least one of his team mates was on that lynch for the credibility boost and for the tactical option (not taken) of jumping off if to help save his buddy if that play seemed viable.
...
If a scum is being lynched in a near landslide then his buddy or buddies are very likely to be on the lynch and perhaps prominently so…
Day 4 - Riabi vote parks on my slot. If a gambit was involved from A50 in drawing the NK for no good reason, he bit on that one hard.
Day 5 - Happily hops on the Dier wagon without ever bothering to justify himself in any kind of remote sense.
Spoiler: with GLW/Dier as last mafia
I just can't see this. If this slot is last mafia:
Day 1 - Boon and GLW bunch on Madonna in a town vs town situation. Why would they try THAT hard on town vs town?
Day 2 - Dier lets himself park a vote on someone he knows is for real claiming. Basically just a WIFOM sort of thing, i.e. "oh mafia wouldn't have done that"?
Day 3 - Both mafia are actively on a wagon that had tremendous momentum anyway. It only makes sense if they're playing "oh mafia wouldn't have acted like this"
Day 4 - Dier preferred to be on Lowell, but found himself unable to figure out how to push Lowell to L-1 for whatever reason. Or maybe he wanted to hammer but the momentum never got there. Either way, it's kinda weird for buddies to behave like this.
Day 5 - Dier is early leader for seemingly no reason at all. It's WEIRD for three townies to jump that quickly on someone for basically no actual case.
Overall conclusion: if it's not Lowell, it's Riabi. If it's not Lowell OR Riabi, then I simply give up because my reading abilities are crap. As far as I can tell, the Dier case is weak as hell, Toast is town, and alone's claim holds up. OTOH, the Lowell case is strong, and the Riabi case is pretty decent too. So PoE says Lowell or Riabi, and probably Lowell. As far as I'm concerned, this game is solved.
PS I think the final mafia outed themselves on that D5 Dier wagon. Can't tell if Lowell or Riabi. But that wagon was just gross. SO gross.
PPS Lynch Lowell then Riabi or Riabi then Lowell. I'd prefer Lowell then Riabi, because I think the Lowell case is stronger. But unless there's legitimate reason to doubt the other four slots as town, or legitimate reason to doubt Lowell or Riabi as mafia, this game is over.Showhttp://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Mhsmith0
Conq: you, sir, are great at being town.
BATMAN: Only jugg was the only one we didn’t scum read at least not me
Quick: There is little to no chance this slot is Power-Wolfing.
SR: I want to give him a day
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mhsmith0 Balancing Act
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edit: Riabi did say he voted Dier for NK motive. But what that motive was, I don't think he ever said. Regardless, it was a gross vote.Showhttp://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Mhsmith0
Conq: you, sir, are great at being town.
BATMAN: Only jugg was the only one we didn’t scum read at least not me
Quick: There is little to no chance this slot is Power-Wolfing.
SR: I want to give him a day
Life is simply unfair, don't you think?-
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mhsmith0 Balancing Act
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Lowell, give us the Dier case. You're representing you're sure about Dier, so give us the case. Not "it's PoE", but an actual case. So give us the case for Dier as mafia and for you as town. If there's something important we're missing, just tell us what it is. If it's obvious to you, at the least it's not obvious to me.Showhttp://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Mhsmith0
Conq: you, sir, are great at being town.
BATMAN: Only jugg was the only one we didn’t scum read at least not me
Quick: There is little to no chance this slot is Power-Wolfing.
SR: I want to give him a day
Life is simply unfair, don't you think?-
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mhsmith0 Balancing Act
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Very bad form. If Lowell was mafia with teammates left, self-hammering like Garmr did might make sense. If he's the last one, then he simply won't. People have to play to their win con, even when they're the underdog.
PS If Lowell is town then he DEFINITELY shouldn't self-hammer. Especially if he doens't think Riabi makes sense as the last mafia. If he's town, he should convince us that he's town, that Riabi is town, and that Dier is the last mafia. I feel like this is a hard sell... but I certainly could be wrong.Showhttp://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Mhsmith0
Conq: you, sir, are great at being town.
BATMAN: Only jugg was the only one we didn’t scum read at least not me
Quick: There is little to no chance this slot is Power-Wolfing.
SR: I want to give him a day
Life is simply unfair, don't you think?-
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mhsmith0 Balancing Act
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In post 997, Boonskiies wrote:Toasty/Sakura/Almost/Garmr/Lowell were on my wagon. I'll bet all 3 scum were there. That was the most opportunistic wagon I have ever seen. Abused my freak out as nonsensical, which maybe it was, but opportunistic nonetheless.
Soon after, CT moves to Garmr, Lowell moves to Garmr, A50 unvotes, Dier pushes against Garmr in 1020.In post 998, Boonskiies wrote:I actually believe Garmr's vote was the most opportunistic, so I want to say scum is
Sakura/Garmr/Toasty.
I can see Almost being frustrating town, and I've been town reading Lowell. This makes sense to me.
and on the flip side, Sakura re-ups the pressure, and Garmr is pressuring too. and texcat is doubting the claim. and TT doubtcasts Boon's claim.
Boon then signals being OK with it without voting, A50 unvotes, Lowell votes Garmr, and then, with the momentum shifting to Garmr...
In post 1009, Boonskiies wrote:Yeah, I'm okay with that.
@Sakura - what exactly are your thoughts on Garmr?In post 1011, Lowell wrote:UNVOTE:
VOTE: garmr
It is true that I'm shamelessly sheeping here. But I want a lynch and am bored, and I never miss a chance too look scummy for some reason. Come to think of it I remember playing a game with garmr recently in which he was pretty helpful and good... in this game I've forgotten he's here entirely. So that's a bad sign.In post 1012, Sakura Hana wrote:Boon is lying thoIn post 1020, Dierfire wrote:I'm on page 32, and I think that I'll finish tomorrow. A few things:
I haven't seen anything that I disliked from Expedience but I told Sakura that I'd give an opinion so I'll do a read in ISO when I'm finished to get something more solid.
I'm having a difficult time reading the interactions between chilledtea and Garmr but they did not seem to be Town/Town interactions to me. If anything, I was suspecting Mafia/Mafia. If Boon's claim is being countered then probably this needs to sit for a bit and be examined later.
My read on Almost50 wavered a bit when I read 764 and 765 (the tone felt weird to me).
Anyway, I'll be more coherent tomorrow when I finish.
and the thing is, it's only AFTER this point that Sakura really goes crazy nuts on Boon. ISO Sakura, and before 1012, Sakura is WAY more interested in lynching Expedience than Garmr. But from this point on (and at this point, remember that Garmr was in plausible danger), there's a HUGE back and forth that overwhelms the rest of the day. Was that "real"? Or was that "distract the board from lynching Garmr since Boon is already dead sooner or later as outed fake PR"? It could be the latter. It REALLY could be the latter.In post 1021, Expedience wrote:
Nah, he's town.In post 986, Sakura Hana wrote:That is L-1, inb4 Expedience goes "OMG LOWELL IS SCUM FOR PUTTING BOONS AT L-1"
VOTE: Garmr
Other fun stuff:
1)
"Don't vote Garmr, vote Exp"In post 1433, Sakura Hana wrote:
What.In post 1431, Expedience wrote:
???In post 1430, Lowell wrote:Oh, damn. Garmr is bussing.
Vote Garmr then.
Wouldn't the logical course of action if you think X is busing Y would be to vote the person with the largest wagon?
2) Triple ISO Garmr, Sakura, Riabi. They basically never talk to or about each other directly.
3) mutual discrediting of Exp who's pushing them bothIn post 807, Sakura Hana wrote:In post 804, FA_Q2 wrote:Garmr (1): Expedience
Uh what.In post 806, Almost50 wrote:Here are the lists provided by others. Everyone has their own suspects:
<snip>
Sakura, Sakaya, texcat (Expedience)
<snip>
Garmr is nowhere in this list yet Exp is voting him?In post 1146, Garmr wrote:If boon is scum I could see expedience being boons partner with the way he is pushing for sakura's lynch.
So, yeah, it could be Riabi. Lowell then Riabi, or Riabi then Lowell. I'm no longer in the "it must be Lowell" camp. It totally could be Sakura/Riabi. If someone wants to sell me on anything else, I'll listen, but it's going to take a LOT of work to get me off of those two.Showhttp://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Mhsmith0
Conq: you, sir, are great at being town.
BATMAN: Only jugg was the only one we didn’t scum read at least not me
Quick: There is little to no chance this slot is Power-Wolfing.
SR: I want to give him a day
Life is simply unfair, don't you think?-
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mhsmith0 Balancing Act
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@alone: with six players left, we have two lynches remaining, unless you've got a protect in you (which if true we DO NOT need to know). Also if you have a vig shot then we essentially have three lynches (and if you do, please just shoot whoever between lowell/riabi we don't lynch today).
PS if you have a jailkeep/roleblock shot, I'd suggest announcing it in advance of the night, so that your target is (presumably) cleared (I guess target could be a strongman, but that seems a bit OP for mafia given town PR's). If you have a doc shot or are BP, we simply don't need to know.Showhttp://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Mhsmith0
Conq: you, sir, are great at being town.
BATMAN: Only jugg was the only one we didn’t scum read at least not me
Quick: There is little to no chance this slot is Power-Wolfing.
SR: I want to give him a day
Life is simply unfair, don't you think?-
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mhsmith0 Balancing Act
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At this point I am officially bored of this game and not much interested in re-reading or doing more analysis. If someone wants to make a case that I'm wrong about something, have at it. Otherwise, I can live with either a Lowell or Riabi lynch today, then lynching the other one tomorrow.
You're welcomeIn post 1755, Lowell wrote:Thanks, coach.
Thanks, coachIn post 1756, Lowell wrote:also, heur is very town. heur, smith, stick together.Showhttp://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Mhsmith0
Conq: you, sir, are great at being town.
BATMAN: Only jugg was the only one we didn’t scum read at least not me
Quick: There is little to no chance this slot is Power-Wolfing.
SR: I want to give him a day
Life is simply unfair, don't you think?-
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mhsmith0 Balancing Act
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FWIW, that vote by Lowell on Garmr at 1011 may be the most legitimate argument against Lowell being mafia that I can think of. Why would Lowell put his second buddy in danger when buddy #1 was already a dead man walking, and in a way that isn't going to give him much of any town credit? It's odd play for sure if they were buddies.Showhttp://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Mhsmith0
Conq: you, sir, are great at being town.
BATMAN: Only jugg was the only one we didn’t scum read at least not me
Quick: There is little to no chance this slot is Power-Wolfing.
SR: I want to give him a day
Life is simply unfair, don't you think?-
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mhsmith0 Balancing Act
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@alone: Presuming it's Lowell or Riabi and we win, CT and Exp deserve a lot of credit for their work to nail Garmr, which was basically where things went to pieces for the wolves. A decent chunk of my Garmr case was just sheeping CT (and I was prepared to go back and mine Exp's work if needed as well). IMO town has worked reasonably well together, with only the Exp lynch sticking out as a big "whoops" moment.
Of course, if it's NOT Lowell or Riabi and we blow it, I guess I deserve a lot of the blame. *shrugs*Showhttp://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Mhsmith0
Conq: you, sir, are great at being town.
BATMAN: Only jugg was the only one we didn’t scum read at least not me
Quick: There is little to no chance this slot is Power-Wolfing.
SR: I want to give him a day
Life is simply unfair, don't you think?-
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mhsmith0 Balancing Act
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UNVOTE:
The more I think on it, the sketchier the Sakura/Riabi slot looks. Plus I want the rest of the board to bother weighing in; it feels like I'm just talking to myself at this point.
Other notes
Day 3: Sakura soft-pushes Exp without bothering to be on the wagon, 1433
Day 4: Riabi soft-pushes the Lowell wagon over the Garmr without bothering to be on either, 1526, 1568 (not to mention role fishing at 1529).
Day 5: Riabi pushes Dier to L-1 for basically nothing, 1691
What's the town case on this slot again? Other than Sakura's hyper-aggressive push on Boon AFTER he fake-claimed and AFTER Garmr was in danger? Anyone? Bueller? Bueller?Showhttp://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Mhsmith0
Conq: you, sir, are great at being town.
BATMAN: Only jugg was the only one we didn’t scum read at least not me
Quick: There is little to no chance this slot is Power-Wolfing.
SR: I want to give him a day
Life is simply unfair, don't you think?-
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mhsmith0 Balancing Act
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Yep. I kinda want to get it right today though. I'd also kinda like to see where people are with the riabi case before anyone comes in and hammers Lowell. I've put out pretty decent cases on both lowell and riabi, and I'd like to see where people truly are on the issues before I put up any kind of vote. Dier, toast, alone, what are your thoughts? Preferences for Lowell or riabi lynch? "Just lynch both and we win"?Showhttp://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Mhsmith0
Conq: you, sir, are great at being town.
BATMAN: Only jugg was the only one we didn’t scum read at least not me
Quick: There is little to no chance this slot is Power-Wolfing.
SR: I want to give him a day
Life is simply unfair, don't you think?-
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mhsmith0 Balancing Act
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As of 1021, garmr was tied with boon and his wagon was gathering serious momentum, then ct went back to boon and Sakura and boon went hard at each other. Re-reading, it looks like very plausible scum theater, whereby Sakura and boon make sure that they can't be considered teammates while boon goes down, and everyone forgets about the garmr case.
Throw in Sakura and riabi basically doing NOTHING from their widespread town read position... Yeah, it really does look like a "bus then coast" model of behavior. I'm simply not willing to let riabi survive our two lynch shots. And I'm fine with lynching riabi first.Showhttp://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Mhsmith0
Conq: you, sir, are great at being town.
BATMAN: Only jugg was the only one we didn’t scum read at least not me
Quick: There is little to no chance this slot is Power-Wolfing.
SR: I want to give him a day
Life is simply unfair, don't you think?-
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mhsmith0 Balancing Act
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