Mini Normal 1775 END!

[FA_Q2]

Note: corrected the deadline. I had put one week instead of 2 in the countdown. It is now correct.

[Dierfire]

Lowell really was my best guess.
Among other things, this means that the interaction around the Knightmare and Sakura's vote (starting in 23) is Town/Mafia, and one of the interactions with Boonskiies (his vote on Knightmare in 35 and subsequent argument about whether it was RVS or his explanation to Sakura in 197) is fabricated. I thought that both of those interactions worked better from Town players, so now I have to dig around and try to find something that distinguishes them.
I've a lot of work to do, and as we've been given a generous deadline (and further as the lynch is not imperative), I'm probably going to take some time with this one.

[Dierfire]

I tried to interpret the early RVS and I failed to make anything meaningful out of it.

Spoiler: Early RVS

VOTE: Lowell

Don't lurk this time.

Last time I played with Expedience, I remember voting for that feather in his cap, and I'm tempted to do it again. But instead I'll vote for another piece of ridiculous head apparel.

VOTE: Boonskiies

VOTE: garmr

I'll do what I wanna lurk.

VOTE: chilledtea

Hot tea is better.

I suppose that it's possible that knightmare is avoiding wagons with or on Mafia players at this point...

Hmmm.. who do I know here? Lowell, texcat & chilled (and even they don't know me that well, so...)

VOTE: Almost

Yeah. That should grab some people's attention. :P

CONFORM

Clear scum tell

VOTE: Goodlordwill

CONFORM

Clear scum tell

VOTE: Goodlordwill

Shameless sheeping.

UNVOTE:

VOTE: Goodlordwill

VOTE: knightmare
Why RVS twice?

...the problem is that Sakura is the person to ask him the relevant question, which is easy for her to do as Mafia.

VOTE: Knight

Didn't feel like reading his last post. LOL

Alright, but actually. Way too defensive already. It's page 2. Hot damn.

Defensiveness isn't a scum tell.

Townies and scum don't want to get lynched either way. I'm gonna call out bad reasons regardless. This counts as one.

I didn't say it's why I voted you. I completely RVS'd. It's page 2, why would you get lynched...?

Boonskiies joins the wagon and subsequently claims that his vote is RVS. If he's voting for his partner, then why is he claiming RVS when he could be claiming a reason? If he wanted to be able to walk away from his vote then he could have simply not made it in the first place.

All these people sheeping me are giving me the chills however...

Why does Sakura pull back here as Mafia (further in 72)? Why does she later dispute those reading her as Town (64)?

After this things start picking up, including Sakura expressing suspicion of Boon (189), Boon walking away from the vote on knightmare (200), and knightmare following up on that (207, 242). Neither of them make it to a vote on Boon, and either way the whole thing is uncoordinated. Sakura keeps having those interactions with Boon (in 370 apparently referring to 353 about Almost50).
Anyway, I'm at the end of Page 15.

[mhsmith0]

I doubt I'll do much re-reading before the weekend, and as the cop clear who's already made a case on the Titus slot (prior game day), I'd like people to do the legwork to develop their reads on who is or isn't the last mafia. Also, if anyone has a particularly solid case for why they cannot reasonably be the last mafia, please let me know.

[Titus]

Lowell really was my best guess.
Among other things, this means that the interaction around the Knightmare and Sakura's vote (starting in 23) is Town/Mafia, and one of the interactions with Boonskiies (his vote on Knightmare in 35 and subsequent argument about whether it was RVS or his explanation to Sakura in 197) is fabricated. I thought that both of those interactions worked better from Town players, so now I have to dig around and try to find something that distinguishes them.
I've a lot of work to do, and as we've been given a generous deadline (and further as the lynch is not imperative), I'm probably going to take some time with this one.

True, the lynch is not imperative but if mr smith is conftown, then we should lynch today.

Assuming mr smith has a cop clear (who would lie about that?), then the only scenario that wouldn't make him town is godfather + shoot the BG and that seems far fetched to me.

[Titus]

Spoiler: Selected VCs for me

VoteCount 2.7

With 12 players alive, it takes

7

votes to lynch.

Maestro (0):

Almost50 (0):

Sakura Hana (2):

Boonskiies, Expedience

Lowell (1):

texcat

mhsmith0 (0):

texcat (1):

Maestro

Garmr (2):

Lowell, chilledtea

Boonskiies (3):

ToastyToast, Sakura Hana, Garmr

Dierfire (0):

ToastyToast (0):

chilledtea (0):

Expedience (0):

Not Voting (3):

Dierfire, mhsmith0, Almost50

The deadline is in

(expired on 2016-04-05 12:00:00)

NOTES:
Maestro replaces Sayaka Maizono immediately.

VoteCount 2.9

With 12 players alive, it takes

7

votes to lynch.

Maestro (0):

Almost50 (0):

Sakura Hana (3):

Boonskiies, Lowell, Expedience

Lowell (0):

mhsmith0 (0):

texcat (0):

Garmr (0):

Boonskiies (6):

ToastyToast, Garmr, chilledtea, texcat, Almost50, Sakura Hana

(L-1)

Dierfire (0):

ToastyToast (0):

chilledtea (1):

Dierfire

Expedience (0):

Not Voting (3):

Maestro, mhsmith0

The deadline is in

(expired on 2016-04-05 12:00:00)

NOTES:
None

We have a verdict. Boonskiies has been lynched.

Day 2 End

Boonskiies (6):

ToastyToast, Garmr, texcat, Almost50, Sakura Hana, chilledtea, Expedience

LYNCH!!

Sakura Hana (2):

Boonskiies, Lowell

chilledtea (1):

Dierfire

Maestro (0):

Almost50 (0):

Lowell (0):

mhsmith0 (0):

texcat (0):

Garmr (0):

Dierfire (0):

ToastyToast (0):

Expedience (0):

Not Voting (2):

Maestro, mhsmith0

Boonskiies Role PM

You are a treacherous

Mafia Encryptor

.

Abilities

You have your voice and your vote. Use them well to confuse town and distort truth.

You may communicate with your

{REDACTED}

each night here.

You are the Mafia Encryptor. You are skilled in hidden messages, secrete communications and encoded messages. As long as you live, you and your

{REDACTED}

will be able to communicate during the day as well as each night. Should you be killed the mafia thread will be closed each day phase.

Win Condition

You win when town has been eliminated or nothing can prevent this from happening.

Here is the game thread. Please confirm via PM with your role name and in thread by posting /confirm.[/area]

VoteCount 4.3

With 8 players alive, it takes

5

votes to lynch.

heuristically_alone (0):

Riabi (0):

Lowell (3):

texcat, heuristically_alone, Garmr

(L-2)

mhsmith0 (1):

Riabi

texcat (0):

Garmr (3):

Lowell, mhsmith0, Dierfire

(L-2)

Dierfire (0):

ToastyToast (0):

Not Voting (1):

ToastyToast

The deadline is in

(expired on 2016-05-03 17:00:00)

NOTES:
Prodding mhsmith0

Day 3 End

Garmr (3):

Lowell, mhsmith0, Dierfire, heuristically_alone, Garmr

LYNCH!!!

Lowell (1):

texcat

mhsmith0 (1):

Riabi

heuristically_alone (0):

Riabi (0):

texcat (0):

Dierfire (0):

ToastyToast (0):

Not Voting (1):

ToastyToast

The deadline is in

(expired on 2016-04-30 23:30:00)

NOTES:
None

Garmr's Role

You are a treacherous

Mafia Goon

.

Abilities

You have your voice and your vote. Use them well to confuse town and distort truth.

You may communicate with your

{REDACTED}

each night here.

Win Condition

You win when town has been eliminated or nothing can prevent this from happening.

Here is the game thread. Please confirm via PM with your role name and in thread by posting /confirm.

[Titus]

Yeah based on the VCs, I am leaning Dierfire.

1) Toasty makes less sense as scum during 2.7 unless it's a planned bus.
2) The only time Dierfire voted scum was on the Garmr wagon which Garmr self hammered. That suggests the buddy is on the wagon.
3) 1801 seems like pure posturing. With Mr. Smith pretty close to conftown, the only lynches open for him are me and Toasty. Suddenly he thinks the last two are having a t v s interaction but fails to take a side.

[ToastyToast]

Why does the lynch make it nearly certain that he's town?

Alone claimed a cop check on me, and he flipped that he actually had a cop check. So mechanically either I'm godfather or I'm an investigative immune SK or I'm town.

Ah gotcha. I suppose godfather is a possibility still. But I also don't think scum would be so proactive.

So that leaves Dierfire and Titus. I've had a town read on dier for most of the game so I'll have to reinvesting ate him. Titus's slot has been so quiet that I hope they are able to provide some insight (finally). Especially with regards to day 5, where riabi was completely absent

[Titus]

Hey, Toasty, I'm leaning town on you. You said you want my insight... yet ignore my post about 1801 seeming like posturing. Like the whole thing about Dierfire reads like he's trying to set up 3p lylo.

[Dierfire]

We're essentially already in 3p LYLO, except that we need mhsmith0 to certify the result or send it back to us for reconsideration.

[Titus]

We're essentially already in 3p LYLO, except that we need mhsmith0 to certify the result or send it back to us for reconsideration.

Yeah, no.

There's a big difference in 3p lylo versus 4p. In 3p, conftown is dead and you can make wifom style based arguments that you cannot make in 4p. Conftown can give the opinions and check for validity without it being suspect. This is why you don't no lynch with conftown alive.

Second, if you were so sure on no lynch being the right play, you would have voted for it rather than seeking permission, since a no lynch doesn't likely lose the game.

[Dierfire]

You are correct that I don't believe that no lynch is the correct play. I'm not understanding the rest of this.

[ToastyToast]

Hey, Toasty, I'm leaning town on you. You said you want my insight... yet ignore my post about 1801 seeming like posturing. Like the whole thing about Dierfire reads like he's trying to set up 3p lylo.

You'll have to clarify what you mean by posturing. I don't particularly like 1801, if only because a) it was clear from yesterday that Lowell wasn't the only option and b) I think everyone has pointed to that interaction between Boonskiies, myself, and Sakura (Titus). Dier would have to say one of me/titus is scum regardless of their alignment; just as I have to decide between Titus/Dier and you have to decide between Dier/myself. I hardly think stating this is an attempt to set up a 3p lylo.

[mhsmith0]

I'll be somewhat unavailable this weekend. Still leaning Titus as the last mafia, but I'm very much interested in what everyone has to say about the game state. Especially interested if anyone has a solid "I can't be the final one because ___" case.

[Dierfire]

I'm here and reading now.

[Dierfire]

I've finished reading through the entire thread again. I didn't find anything that makes my decision for me.

I did find (again) that Boonskiies claimed his Jailkeeper action on ToastyToast. I need to think more about what that means and how it compares to the interaction with Sakura Hana. I'd like to try to decide what he wanted from the PR claim (whether he was trying to draw out a real PR or trying to save himself from the lynch), because that will inform my interpretation of potential associations (although it doesn't help that ToastyToast was largely absent during that time).

[Titus]

Hey, Toasty, I'm leaning town on you. You said you want my insight... yet ignore my post about 1801 seeming like posturing. Like the whole thing about Dierfire reads like he's trying to set up 3p lylo.

You'll have to clarify what you mean by posturing. I don't particularly like 1801, if only because a) it was clear from yesterday that Lowell wasn't the only option and b) I think everyone has pointed to that interaction between Boonskiies, myself, and Sakura (Titus). Dier would have to say one of me/titus is scum regardless of their alignment; just as I have to decide between Titus/Dier and you have to decide between Dier/myself. I hardly think stating this is an attempt to set up a 3p lylo.

I think we're getting towards the same wavelength. Dierfire has to say it's one of us. So picking an interaction in the game and stating it must be scum/town is posturing. He wants people to see things that way when it's not true if scum. It's one thing to say scum must be in us. It's another thing to say scum is in a pile, go find which one. It sets him up.

Second, why bother stating the lynch isn't mandatory unless positioning for 3p lylo. It's much easier to fool one person than two. And with conftown dead, the job is easier.

That's what I mean by posturing.

[Dierfire]

I'm trying to make sense of the situation around the claim from Boonskiies.

Spoiler: Long Form Data

Expedience had a vote on Sakura Hana from 638.
ToastyToast votes for Boonskiies in 683 ("for now").
Garmr casts his vote for chilledtea in 701 after chilledtea votes for texcat.
Expedience moves to Garmr in 727.
Boonskiies votes for texcat in 737 (there are three Town players on this wagon).
Sakura votes for Expedience in 811. Garmr moves to Expedience in 837.
Boonskiies votes for ToastyToast in 904, then Sakura Hana in 927, before returning to ToastyToast in 929. At this point, Boonskiies still only has one vote (from ToastyToast).
Sakura Hana votes for Boonskiies in 930, making two votes on his wagon, at which point Boonskiies reciprocates in 932 (the only vote on her wagon).
Now mhsmith0 adds a vote for Boonskiies in 959. As chilledtea had removed his vote for texcat in 954, Boonskiies is now the leading wagon with three votes.
Expedience returns to Sakura Hana in 980, the second vote on her wagon.
Boonskiies picks up three quick votes from Almost50, Garmr, and Lowell (983, 984, 985) and texcat states hammer intent (988). At this point both Mafia players are on his wagon. Sakura Hana has two votes and Garmr has none.
Boonskiies claims a role and an action in 992, causing mhsmith0 to remove his vote (993).
In 1008 chilledtea votes for Garmr.
Almost50 removes his vote in 1010 ("for now") and is followed by Lowell, who moves his vote to Garmr in 1011. At this point, we have the same vote distribution as in the VC at 1019. This is the moment at which Sakura says that Boonskiies is lying (1012).
Expedience returns to Garmr in 1021, but chilledtea moves from Garmr to Boonskiies in 1029. This leaves Garmr with two, Sakura Hana with one, and Boonskiies with four.
Lowell leaves Garmr for Sakura Hana in 1036, and Sakura Hana votes for herself (after claiming a role) in 1072. This leaves her with three, Garmr with one, and Boonskiies with three.
At this point, texcat returns and votes for Boonskiies (1081). This is the fourth vote on his wagon.
Expedience now votes for Sakura Hana in 1095, and mhsmith0 follows in 1099. This is the fifth vote on that wagon. He removes the vote in 1109. Garmr has no votes, and Boonskiies has four.
Almost50 votes for Boonskiies in 1114, and Sakura Hana follows in 1140. Now she has three votes and he has six.
In 1215, chilledtea removes his vote, but returns it in 1244, allowing Expedience to drop the hammer in 1245.

Spoiler: Short Form Data

Boonskiies Claims Here

Boonskiies (6): ToastyToast, Sakura Hana, mhsmith0, Almost50, Garmr, Lowell
Sakura Hana (2): Boonskiies, Expedience
Garmr (0):
texcat (1): Maestro
Lowell (1): texcat

No Vote (2): Dierfire, chilledtea

Sakura Hana Challenges Here

Boonskiies (3): ToastyToast, Sakura Hana, Garmr
Sakura Hana (2): Boonskiies, Expedience
Garmr (2): chilledtea, Lowell
texcat (1): Maestro
Lowell (1): texcat

No Vote (2): Dierfire, mhsmith0, Almost50

Sakura Hana Claims Here

Boonskiies (4): ToastyToast, Sakura Hana, Garmr, chilledtea
Sakura Hana (2): Boonskiies, Lowell
Garmr (1): Expedience
texcat (1): Maestro
Lowell (1): texcat

No Vote (3): Dierfire, mhsmith0, Almost50

(With the claim she moves her vote to herself)

Given the persistence with which Mafia players remained on his wagon, and especially the way that Garmr ignored the claim by Boonskiies, I assume that the goal of the claim was not to save Boonskiies, but rather to draw out a counter.

If Sakura Hana is Mafia, then her claim does not help draw a counter (if she appears to counter his claim then no other Town PR need do so), especially before she made her claim more specific. The plan also couldn't have been for her to die and hope that her flip cleared Boonskiies, because she backed out when it looked like she might actually be lynched (see quotes below).

Spoiler: Quotes

If someone wants to counter claim they are the non normal role come at me then.
While i would love to see boon eat his pants in hot sauce, the one thing bothering me is dier's stance in all of it.
He says i should be lynched because im vengeful so that i can shoot Boon, but wouldn't the townie mindset be to let the scum waste a NK on me instead.

Vengeful would be the 1 possible role added.

This is a really weird position to take for someone who wasn't believing me in their previous post.

Oh and not to mention that dier's reason is "because numbers" lol.

I haven't read Dier's case on Chilled because I just got back, but i would really prefer him to take a strong stance on both me and Boon, because with the way things are going there's no way the lynch can be shifted elsewhere.
Also.
VOTE: Boon

So the only reason that I could see for things to proceed in that manner if Sakura Hana were Mafia is if drawing a claim was a secondary objective, and the primary objective was to create distance between Boonskiies and the other Mafia players.

If ToastyToast is Mafia, then the claim from Boonskiies puts his lynch on the table when he was previously not in danger. Again, lynching Boonskiies is preferable to lynching ToastyToast there if they are both Mafia, so the only utility in claiming ToastyToast as a target (as opposed to some other player) is to create distance.

[ToastyToast]

So basically....you think the Boonskiies lynch was orchestrated all to get a claim when the scum team could have continued another day without any scum flips if not for the Boons blow up.....

-Boons could just as easily have claimed to jailkeep me (I could have been a night kill target) to protect me that night and get himself towncred
-You're assuming Boons operates on logical, utility driven moves (did you see him in the game?)
-Or he was just building his fake claim, which he'd have reason to do given his power.
-

[mhsmith0]

If Sakura was mafia, then the plan was to give her town credit and/or to draw attention away from the building Garmr wagon. Drawing out a claim would at most have been a secondary benefit to the mafia.

PS Optimal town outcome on D2 would have been a garmr lynch, with mafia forced to choose between letting chilledtea live even longer (super dangerous for them) or killing him and making boonie the D3 lynch. Sakura's actions prevented this outcome. The question is whether this was inadvertent (i.e. she was town) or intentional.

[Dierfire]

So basically....you think the Boonskiies lynch was orchestrated all to get a claim when the scum team could have continued another day without any scum flips if not for the Boons blow up.....

No, I'm saying that the intent behind Boonskiies making that claim was more to draw a counter than to save Boonskiies from the lynch. Obviously neither would have been necessary had he not reached L-1 in the first place (although his wagon did have help in reaching L-1).

If Sakura was mafia, then the plan was to give her town credit and/or to draw attention away from the building Garmr wagon. Drawing out a claim would at most have been a secondary benefit to the mafia.

I remain skeptical that Sakura Hana needs to make that action there to distract from a Garmr wagon when Garmr is potentially compromised by the night action.

[mhsmith0]

I'd really like your guys thoughts on the slots still alive. Town read, wolf read, null read, whatever.

I'll probably play around with an updated VCA when I get the time.

[mhsmith0]

Also, I THINK it's optimal play to no lynch today so that we can eliminate a possibility (even though presumably that possibility to be eliminated is me). That said, I think 4 heads is better than 3, so I'd like us to at least try and game solve while we are all here.

[Dierfire]

That would be optimal play if there were sufficient uncertainty that we'd entertain the notion of lynching you under some scenarios, but that's not the case here. I don't think that the flipped roles favor the presence of a Godfather, and even if I knew for certain that there were a Godfather I don't have any specific reason to believe that it would be you rather than any other player.
The only way that we will fail to lynch today is if we are unable to agree upon a lynch. That would not be disastrous, but neither would it be optimal.

I'm still working through the game (in answer to your earlier question, the essence is that I have reasons to read both ToastyToast and Titus as Town and few reasons to read either as Mafia), but I think that I will be able to reach a best guess before the deadline. I'll commit to a vote within ((expired on 2016-05-29 12:00:00)).

[Titus]

Mhsmith, Can you color in the VCs and post them? I did a rudimentary VCA but I want to check my work.