BM's Mystery Mafia!! GAME OVER???

[Erg0]

/confirm?

Since I'm here,

Vote: SirWario

for having an evil name.

[Erg0]

/unconfirm

[Erg0]

Unvote, Vote: BobbyPlump

Random voting is helpful to get things started, especially in a game this size.

Plus, I find that "I don't like random voting" is often a scumtell.

[Erg0]

I took it to mean that he thought that Oman should "keep fishing". Contrast his 36 to JDodge's 33.

[Erg0]

I like early wagons in a game this size - they help to get things moving.

[Erg0]

I'll buy that it was a joke by GoW. The way he mimicked JDodge's post did look kind of facetious. The vote

was

kind of weird, though. IGMEOY.

I seriously doubt that Oman was really fishing - he'd have to be pretty unsophisticated to try and out a power role so early. It's not like the double voter was going to stand up and say "Yeah, you caught me."

JDodge's vote looks more cautionary than anything - he seemed to just literally want Oman to "stop fishing".

Wow, I'm reading way too much into all of this stuff. I'm going to hit the reset button.

Vote: BobbyPlump

Need some actual input from him.

[Erg0]

Wow, that was a fortuitous simulpost.

Unvote

for the moment.

[Erg0]

Wow, that was a fortuitous simulpost.

Unvote

for the moment.

To clarify, I'm referring to BobbyPlump here.

[Erg0]

Vote: ~N9V~

Obvscum.

[Erg0]

See? Obvscum! I don't know why people don't listen to me more often...

I'm just glad that we've finally managed to move past the 'I disagree with your day 1 strategy so you must be scum' portion of proceedings. That was seriously unhelpful.

[Erg0]

Sorry, I meant to include this in my previous post:

The amount of time that it's taken for this bandwagon to come around makes me think that there's a good chance that ~N9V~ actually is scum. The other thing that I find interesting is that a lot of people FoSed him for the post in question, but never really followed up on it until Nelly beat them over the head with it by posting a full case.

[Erg0]

I broke the code!!!

(By which I mean, I understand what you're saying)

[Erg0]

The other thing that I find interesting is that a lot of people FoSed him for the post in question, but never really followed up on it until Nelly beat them over the head with it by posting a full case.

That is often the case, which is why town player write their cases, because they often see something the others don't.

I was actually referring to the fact that a lot of people seemed to find ~N9V~ suspicious, but didn't seem to want to act on it. I would have expected a post like his to attract a few quick votes at this stage of the game, and the fact that it didn't leads me to think that perhaps a number of people had reason not to vote him (but still wanted to appear pro-town by FoSing him).

[Erg0]

I think he's scummy, which is why I'm voting for him. What I said in my second post is what I meant to imply in my first post - that people FoSed him but then let it slide until Nelly's post forced them to follow up.

Even now, only myself and GoW are voting him, even though at least four people said that they loved Nelly's case.

[Erg0]

Well the first one was on the last (?) post of a page and the second on the third or fourth IIRC.

Except for this, you mean?

[Erg0]

The other way to interpret what Skruffs said is that both JDodge and N9V may be townies. Of course, both theories are WIFOM because they require you to assume that N9V's play isn't going to change over time. The fact that Skruffs brought it up is probably more interesting (and useful) than the information itself.

[Erg0]

Neither at this stage - it's just one of those comments that made me think "that probably means something", but I haven't figured out what that is yet. I'll make that judgement once I have a little more context to apply to the situation.

[Erg0]

...and thus the circle closes.

I'll do a bit of a roundup post later on since there's been a fair bit of activity since my last post, but the thing that has really stuck out to me is that Oman is being really hoppy with his vote today. A quick count shows that's his fifth vote today (random vote for Albert, then Bobby, N9V, XDaamno, and back to Bobby). What was that about people hopping on the wagon du jour?

[Erg0]

Thoughts, eh?

I'd have to do a thorough reread to be sure, but I don't recall anyone specifically accusing Bobby of being defensive. Besides being essentially useless as a defence, this looks a bit like a strawman.

I do understand why he would say "even when I'm town", though. Normally people would associate defensiveness with scum, so he's putting forward the argument that he is also defensive when he is not scum. I don't really see this as an odd way to phrase it.

[Erg0]

I'd have to do a thorough reread to be sure, but I don't recall anyone specifically accusing Bobby of being defensive. Besides being essentially useless as a defence, this looks a bit like a strawman.

I've done the reread, and realised that Nelly called Bobby defensive in 276. This part of my above post is withdrawn.

Oman, voting a lot isn't necessarily that bad in a game this size but you just stand out to me as having moved your vote around the major wagons more than anyone else. You're hoppy in comparison to everyone else up til now (or at least compared to my impression of everyone else).

I noted your random vote as such, I wasn't trying to pass it off as something it wasn't.

[Erg0]

Tell me about it.

Ok, so what's your feeling now on N9V and Xdaamno? Did you change your mind on them or just decide that someone else was scummier? To my mind, some of these people are mutually exclusive as suspects.

[Erg0]

Criminy, I leave you people alone for a few hours and this is what happens?

I'm not voting for Albert, it's the easy wagon. I don't want to go into day 2 with no info, especially with the cop dead.

Unvote

, for now.

Incidentally, Albert being a dayvig is proof that God has a sense of humour.

[Erg0]

I only really said that because I wanted him to put it in his sig.

[Erg0]

That's what he

wanted

you to think.

It is slightly odd that Albert said "Kill JordanA24" and

Michael

Jordan died - but I have to assume that's a coincidence because he'd have to know Bobby's role name in advance to know who he'd actually killed.

[Erg0]

I don't think that was what he said.

[Erg0]

I suppose we've at least learned something from this based on people's attitudes towards Bobby. Funnily enough, this more or less solidifies the two biggest suspects that I had after my reread yesterday.

FoD: Xdaamno, Nelly632

If either or both of these two is scum then I like the odds of ~N9V~ being scum too.

[Erg0]

Erm... that should be FoS, obviously. FoD might be mistaken for finger of death, and I don't want to kill anyone else.

[Erg0]

Well I never really thought he was scum, if that makes you feel better about his playing abilities. I wouldn't have picked cop, but the case against him was way overinflated. I do love how everyone backpedalled so fast when he came up as a cop, though.

I need to do a little bit of a brain dump since I'll be away for a couple of days and y'all will probably generate 20 pages while I'm gone.

Oman: How do you feel about AlSleet now?

Nelly: Why were looking so hard for reasons to vote for Bobby?

Xdaamno: What's with all the jumpiness? Your opinions have changed a number of times today without intervening explanations. I take it that you're sticking with your opinion that either Albert or Bobby is scum?

Pulsewidth('s replacement): why are you scum?

Skruffs: How 'bout an actual opinion on one of the players?

SirWario: hmmm...

Think that's it for now. Nobody kill me 'til I get back.

[Erg0]

For Nelly:

F) This is a good sign in my eyes that Skruffs is townie, in my mind a MOB member would not bring up this option because he would not want anyone to second guess my thoughts on N9V. He would want everyone to jump on a bandwagon and get a townie lynched... So by pointing out to everyone that this is a option gives me a good sign that he is townie...

This from your next post after voting N9V. You seem to be basing your theory on Skruffs' towniness on N9V being town - but you're still voting him (N9V). This makes no sense to me.

Your arguments for disliking Bobby in 276 are kinda weak - the meta is bad and the rest of it is very thin (in my opinion). Your semantic argument in 283 ("even when I'm town") is just not a good read, and then you go with:

I would like some other peoples opinion on this first...

After writing a whole post theorising on scenarios where N9V is town and Bobby is scum, then finding what you think is a good tell, you're still waiting for town approval before you vote for him? Doesn't ring true to me.

And the piece de resistance:

Guess I am getting put on the scum list…

People who joke about being scum early on day 1 are statistically very likely to be scum.

[Erg0]

For Nelly:

F) This is a good sign in my eyes that Skruffs is townie, in my mind a MOB member would not bring up this option because he would not want anyone to second guess my thoughts on N9V. He would want everyone to jump on a bandwagon and get a townie lynched... So by pointing out to everyone that this is a option gives me a good sign that he is townie...

This from your next post after voting N9V. You seem to be basing your theory on Skruffs' towniness on N9V being town - but you're still voting him (N9V). This makes no sense to me.

Your arguments for disliking Bobby in 276 are kinda weak - the meta is bad and the rest of it is very thin (in my opinion). Your semantic argument in 283 ("even when I'm town") is just not a good read, and then you go with:

I would like some other peoples opinion on this first...

After writing a whole post theorising on scenarios where N9V is town and Bobby is scum, then finding what you think is a good tell, you're still looking for town approval before you vote for him? You never actually voted for him, but it looked to me like you really wanted to.

And the piece de resistance:

Guess I am getting put on the scum list…

People who joke about being scum early on day 1 are statistically very likely to be scum.

[Erg0]

Dang, sorry. Read the second one, it's slightly amended.

[Erg0]

Nelly (206) wrote:
F) This is a good sign in my eyes that Skruffs is townie, in my mind a MOB member would not bring up this option because he would not want anyone to second guess my thoughts on N9V. He would want everyone to jump on a bandwagon and get a townie lynched... So by pointing out to everyone that this is a option gives me a good sign that he is townie...


This from your next post after voting N9V. You seem to be basing your theory on Skruffs' towniness on N9V being town - but you're still voting him (N9V). This makes no sense to me.

What my comment above says is IF SKRUFFS was SCUM he would not want to contrdict what I say because in THIS SCENARIO SCRUFFS IS SCUM and N9V is TOWN... In more lamest terms imagine if SKRUFFS is SCUM and N9V is TOWN, Sckruffs sees a easy lynch so he doesnt want to rock the boat so he will not say anything bad about my comments because he doesnt want anyone doubting what I say... But the fact that he does doubt me makes me feel like he is TOWN and futhurs my opinion on N9V being scum... I do hope I explained that for you, in my head it make alot more sense but when I try to type it I cant word it properly...

My point is that your opening sentence is "This is a good sign that Skruffs is a townie". Not "If N9V is scum then I think Skruffs is a townie". You may have intended there to be a condition on your feeling that Skruffs was town, but you didn't

say

that. Also, you're failing to consider the possibility that they're both scum, which fits your observation equally well since Skruffs would want to divert the wagon in that case.

After writing a whole post theorising on scenarios where N9V is town and Bobby is scum, then finding what you think is a good tell, you're still looking for town approval before you vote for him? You never actually voted for him, but it looked to me like you really wanted to.

The problem I see is that you are not paying enough attention to this game, your above post claims I posted a an entire post claiming N9V to be TOWN and another post claiming Bobby to be SCUM... I honestly dont believe you even read my thread and I amsure now you will back track and say it was all a typo... I also believe I quoted above serveeral scenarios to explain Bobby acting the way he did... At no point was I ever looking for town approval to vote for Bobby read this again please...

No typos, I stand by what I said - which was that you spent a lot of time focusing on these scenarios. My impression was that you were laying the groundwork for a vote on Bobby, and trying to make sure that it wouldn't come back to bite you later.

I think the problem is more that you're thinking what you

mean

, and I'm reading what you

say

. I prefer to ask questions the way I'm doing it, because I see it as getting better results. YMMV.

[Erg0]

People who joke about being scum early on day 1 are statistically very likely to be scum.

This is the worst argument, and I hate it.

It always happens "Who's scum?" "ME" And everyone takes it seriously.

Sometimes people joke in games for no reason other then to joke in games.

Well then people should stop saying it.

I wouldn't apply this in every case, Nelly's remark was unprovoked and overly fatalistic in my opinion.

[Erg0]

In other news, I would like Nelly632 to tell us what he thinks about bobby, as I'm getting an instinctual feeling that they may be scumbuddies.

The question itself is significant here, as it is a bit prejudicial. I do wonder what the answer would have been if Albert had left out the second part, though.

Albert, are you able to expand on this instinctual feeling now that Nelly has responded? Obviously Bobby is not scum, but how do you feel about Nelly now?

[Erg0]

I mean that Albert gives an indication of the answer that he's looking for in the question itself. By saying that he thinks that Nelly and Bobby are scumbuddies he's tipping Nelly to the fact that he may be better off distancing himself from Bobby - which is exactly what he does. I wasn't really looking at it in this light before, and it does diminish the significance of Nelly's case on Bobby to a certain extent (though not entirely).

This will be my last post for 2 days. I'd like to hear from the others I mentioned, and also from N9V obviously, since the votes only fell off him by default.

[Erg0]

How about N9V? I seem to recall you had him at #2 a while ago.

(PS ok I lied - maybe one more post)

[Erg0]

If you're responding to Oman, I think he meant put your entire argument into one post. If you're responding to me, it was post 229.

[Erg0]

(insert friendly welcome here)

Vote: Mastermind of Sin

[Erg0]

I guess I'm back.

I still don't like the Albert lynch. If that was a scum gambit then he just gave up a free daykill (which he could have used later in the game to kill, say, a

claimed

cop) to kill some random townie and distance himself from a player that nobody was linking him with?

Next theory, please.

Revenge is good and all, but there are one hundred drawbacks to this lynch:

1. He's probably town.
2 through 100.

We get no information from the wagon.

Seriously, Albert is the easiest lynch in the world right now, and the scum can just run him up without fear of reprisal. I don't like that idea.

I also find it really weird that nobody even noted my unreasoned vote on MoS. Monomaniacal much?

[Erg0]

I think Pulsewidth was scummy and I was going away for a bit so I thought I might as well do something with my vote. Perhaps I'm just starved for attention...

[Erg0]

Good to see gameshark bringing the content, I look forward to the conclusion of your analysis.

Since MoS isn't even really here I'm going to

Unvote

for now. I shall commence searching for a place where my vote will be of most use.

[Erg0]

I wonder how Erg0 can say that we will get no information from an Albert lynch, when apparently, at least three people (on this page anyways) have decided that Albert is a bad lynch, for NO apparent reason.

<snip>

Considering he daykilled a cop with no warning, I see no reason for him to be town, and I see no reason for scum, if he is town, to want to go after him. Like Erg0 said - he's an easy lynch. 'Why lynch someone scummy right now', I can picture scum thinking, 'if he's going to be an easy lynch later on, when one of us are in trouble'.

Anyways the point of this post is to discredit Ergo's 1/100 chance he's town vs 99/100 he's scum but it would be an infoless lynch. There's three people right there who think that what he did was townish, which I don't really see a town having any reason to do. It was NOT town to do what he did in the fashion he did it. People are saying it's too scummy to be scum, that's ridiculous.

Now, mind you, me and Albert are BOTH voting xdaamno, so...

I said Albert was a bad lynch

before

the other two spoke up, so I could hardly take that into account when stating that we got no information. To be clear, I absolutely think Albert is town, anything else I say on the subject is merely an attempt to persuade others who think he's scum not to vote for him.

As for having no apparent reason to think that Albert's a townie - my reason is in the post you quoted. I don't see what he did as a good scum gambit. It's not good play for a townie either, but it's a worse play for scum.

[Erg0]

I thought you were God?



Give me a good case on Albert and I'll vote him. I've already rebutted the existing argument, and nobody seems interested in debating it.

[Erg0]

I knew I unvoted that guy for a reason.

[Erg0]

I'm not making any "assumptions", I provided my reasons for this belief. Both you and Skruffs need to stop strawmanning me - I never said he was too scummy to be scum. I'll do a point-by-point response to Skruffs in a couple of hours.

[Erg0]

Everything that I was going to say has pretty much been covered by the posts after mine so I won't bore you with a recap.

I could see GoW as scum, he hasn't given me a strong town vibe and a lot of his posts consist of him more or less agreeing with other people. I'm sure he'll say that his recent posts were a joke, so I'll ignore them for now.

FoS: GodOfWine

[Erg0]

By royal decree, I force you to believe me!

GoW: Are you saying that this post wasn't a joke? Because it seems to have caused at least one person to vote for you...

[Erg0]

I take it you don't like the GoW wagon, Xdaamno?

[Erg0]

Obviously no one has actually been reading anything I say. JordanA24 and SirWario, you have both questioned me using logic that is based on the fact that I was dead sure ABR was scum. Not true. I thought his behavior was very scummy, but the main reason I put the vote on him was because of the erratic and reckless play that I thought would endanger the game down the road. Forcing someone to "claim or die" as ABR did is wild gameplay and killing bobby with no warning only increases his wildness. I thought his character (Hydrogen was it?) put everyone at risk without logic. And SirWario, get some balls and slap a vote on me, like everyone else.

And as a side note. People should pay more attention to the posts I make. Not to what I'm saying but the words that I say it with.

I'm curious as to what that last sentence means.

Reading back through, I can see that you are saying that Albert is reckless but you associate this with statements that he is scummy, leading people (myself included) to believe that you think he is scummy

because

he is reckless.

For example:

ABR recklessly killed the cop. What is townie about that?

Hes the best lynch, you know it and you're just struggling to keep the mentally insane member (ABR) of your evil mafia trio alive.

I apparently am the popular vote now because I decided to promote voting for the player who just killed our cop without wanrning or precaution. I'm sorry if I'm the only one who finds that scummy, and would like to rid the game of a player who will continue to act recklessly.

[Erg0]

I think MoS is saying that he thinks there may be more than one or two scum on the wagon.

[Erg0]

Anyway I'm going to claim, seeing that my future seems a bit uncertain here. When I mentioned reading my posts a little closer, I was talking about looking at the language that I had used because I was trying to surreptitiously claim. I was a little upset that my royal decree was ignored because I am

KING ARTHUR, vanilla townie

. All I've got on my side is valor and a sense for justice.

Breadcrumbing your role, eh?

It did seem that there was something to those really weird posts, this makes some kind of sense. Having said that, I don't think that the flavour in this game is really going to help us tell the difference between scum and town.

I'll take that for now and look around again. More discussion = better result.

[Erg0]

Hydrogen is highly flammable, isn't it?

[Erg0]

Your rather obvious breadcrumb is noted, too.

We're getting to the business end of the day now, so I'm going to catch up on my notes and vote for the person I decide I want lynched. I'm tempted to go back to N9V now that he's reappeared, since we never really got the answers that we wanted out of that wagon. Let's see what the morning brings...

[Erg0]

He was the guy with Locke as his avatar.

[Erg0]

Yup, I agree with myself.

Vote: ~N9V~

[Erg0]

Still

waiting for a post from N9V. This is getting pretty ridiculous, but I'm not going to switch off him again without hearing from him.

[Erg0]

I like Skruffs' post, if only because I think it's the first substantial content on any specific player that he's posted all game. Having said that, I generally agree with his analysis, and it actually makes me more inclined to keep my vote on N9V since we will get some information from the lynch.

I notice that, despite Albert's profession of love, he did not respond to Skruffs' request for a full flavour claim. Having re-read the events surrounding Albert's kill on Bobby, I'm feeling slightly less positive about him than I was before, though I'd still rather lynch someone linked to him (e.g. N9V) and work back from there.

I doubt I'll move my vote before deadline unless N9V actually posts something.

[Erg0]

I had a lot of the same stuff about Xdaamno in my notes. Another one that I don't think you mentioned: his initial vote on Bobby (in 193) was pretty much based on Oman's quote of two of Bobby's posts in 192 (in which Oman also voted for Bobby). Xdaamno assumed that the posts Oman quoted were consecutive, which they weren't. When this was pointed out, he said he thought that their relative proximity was FoS-worthy anyway,

but he didn't unvote

. By the time the N9V wagon was up to 6 (in 227), he's convinced that Bobby's scum despite his original premise being incorrect, saying that N9V is his number 2 but Bobby is giving off "deeper scumtells".

The patterns are not in his favour. Given his attention on Bobby really seemed to have the purpose of taking heat off N9V, I'd rather lynch N9V today and go from there. This is almost entirely based on the fact that N9V has given us nothing useful for a very long time. If we're wrong I'd rather be wrong about him than Xdaamno, who is at least talking.

[Erg0]

I think that the reason for the no lynch was a general lack of urgency yesterday - except for Oman and Xdaamno, posting was generally down near the deadline, when it should have been up. The problem I had was that N9V was my most preferred target, but I wasn't comfortable pushing others to vote for him on relatively scant evidence. If we get another deadline in the future we need to be sure to not allow oursleves the same complacency.

Since we're starting a new day, I'll give N9V's replacement a little time to catch up before I decide whether to put my vote back where it was at the end of yesterday.

[Erg0]

Presumably Skruffs is referring to you pretending to daykill him. I'd say that's a pretty big connection.

[Erg0]

Agreed. That's a very poor meta right there.

FoS: Oman

[Erg0]

Sorry, but I just really really hate speculation on the NK this early in the game. Given that you're opening yourself up already by having a prominent fight with Xdaamno, you should be more careful about putting irrelevant stuff like that in the thread.

[Erg0]

I've got a little catching up to do on the last couple of pages, but just to address some stuff that jumped out at me:

Flay: bearing in mind that we discussed this at some length on Day 1, what is your reasoning for thinking that ABR is scum. Note that I won't accept "he killed the cop" as an answer (at least, not without further reasoning).

Fritz: don't be a troll.

zu_Faul: I look forward to you quantifying this "fail" of which you speak.

More later, including a look at Setael's post (since she's lucky enough to be replacing the guy I was voting yesterday).

[Erg0]

I like the fact that Setael is thinking at least, though I disagree with most of her argument. I also thought that Bobby was town, and had the same opinion of Xdaamno's voting that Yagami did, so that argument just isn't going to hold water with me. I'm going to give Setael a bit longer to sway me.

Since I'm not doing that any more, let's go to plan B.

Vote: Xdaamno

Oman is just screwing with my head right now, I had him as solidly town for the first half of day 1, and he's been going steadily downhill since then. I still like Xdaamno as scum due to his hippity-hoppiness on day 1,though.

[Erg0]

I didn't say

why

you were going downhill, don't assume it's for that. You've just been doing way too much fishing and speculation for my liking.

[Erg0]

So that "accidental" flavour claim wasn't fishing? Even if it was unintentional, that's still what it was.

[Erg0]

Hmm, I have a less strange role-name...which probably makes it strange. Just a broad question, my name is related to my powers in a well-flavoured way (thus my reluctance to join this fun little nameclaim), is anyone elses like mine?

I suppose King Arthur and his valiant vote is, I don't think names are going to get the scum here.

Just for reference.

[Erg0]

Simulpost.

Ok, since you like to speculate on this sort of thing - since that post appears to be you claiming a power role, why do you think you're still alive?

[Erg0]

That didn't exactly answer my question. If you're going to breadcrumb so obviously then you're going to have to come up with a better defence than "oops".

[Erg0]

You might wish to note that I FoSed Oman

before

the arrival of the three man lyncher team.

TCS: Let me get this straight - making generalised statements about scumhunting is pro-town, but actual scumhunting is scummy?

Oman: Stop trying to link us. I'm

this

close to voting you for trying to use me as a shield.

[Erg0]

Which part? Or do you mean the whole thing?

[Erg0]

No. Because the only thing he has provided is a definitive "This person is Town" or "This person is scum" without any kind of analysis or reason.

I just replaced in. If you expect detailed analysis after two pages of game, you're going to die sad and alone.

This man is quite obviously town.

[Erg0]

Minimal content?

OH NOES

This post is the very definition of irony.

[Erg0]

Gosh, with such strong evidence being presented against all of these people, I just don't know what to think any more!

[Erg0]

Which evidence would that be? I didn't even get the point of zu_Faul's post above until you responded, but if he's suggesting that you're paired with TCS then I don't see anything in his previous posts to support it.

[Erg0]

Yeah, there's a lot of that going around at the moment it seems (I know I'm guilty of it at times).

Obviously there's not much need for a case against TCS (in the sense that he's only been in the game for a short time), but I really think we need something more on Oman. Since nobody else seems to want to do it, I'll start having a look back now.

[Erg0]

but I really think we need something more on Oman.

are you saying the cases on me are lacking, or you think I'm scum and you are looking for evidence?

I'm saying that I don't know and I need more information in order to make up my mind.

[Erg0]

I guess Xdaamno isn't going to happen today, and we really don't need another no lynch.

Unvote

Case pending in a day or so.

[Erg0]

What happened to your promise to vote TCS?

[Erg0]

Dammit TCS, you stole my thunder! Ah well, I'd already written this so I might as well post it.

Right, finally I've done my re-read on Oman. Let's see what we found:

Note that the post numbers for Oman are based on filtering down to only his posts. Numbers for other people are the actual post numbers in the thread.

0: random vote

1-8: The "double voter" saga - I don't really attach much significance to this on its own, but it does contribute to the pattern we'll see later.

9-11: HoS on N9V for saying the same thing twice in post 107 (which was pretty bad)

12: Borderline sucking up to Nelly for writing a case on N9V (there was a lot of this going on at the time). No vote at this point, though (only GoW and me were voting N9V at this point I think).

13-18: Fairly wide-ranging post to start, mainly targeting flea and bobby, who he says "would be mutually exclusive scum to me at this point". Asks N9V a couple of questions, then says N9V and flea already have enough pressure on them and immediately votes bobby (1st vote on him). Seems to accept flea's defence in 15, resists voting N9V in 17. In 13, I find it interesting that he excluded this sentence from his quote of my previous post: "The amount of time that it's taken for this bandwagon to come around makes me think that there's a good chance that ~N9V~ actually is scum."

19-22: Unvotes bobby, votes N9V, noting he's not that close to a lynch (6th vote). Later tells him not to claim and speculates a little on who might look bad day 2.

23-27: Unvotes N9V, votes Xdaamno. Kind of out of nowhere. Says he's still looking at N9V, but doesn't like Xdaamno's vote staying on bobby. Some dialogue with Xdaamno regarding scumtells. Xdaamno explains his vote, Oman says he still doesn't like him.

28-31: Unvotes Xdaamno, votes bobby. Only mention of Xdaamno in this post is to ask him whether he thinks bobby is scum or town. I call him hoppy after this, and he says he's had reasons for each vote. As of 31, his scumlist is bobby, Xdaamno, N9V, but also says he thnks Xdaamno is probably town(?).

*About here is where Albert kills bobby.

32-35: Asks Albert for deatils, says he doesn't think he's scum, then FoSes him(?). Still chasing Xdaamno and N9V. A bit of banter after that.

36: Thinks I'm reaching by saying that a question by Albert to Nelly was prejudicial. Keep this in mind.

37-41: Wants Xdaamno to summarise his opinion on Albert in one post. Thinks it's a scumtell when he won't. Mentions he thinks Pulsewidth/MoS is town.

42: After Albert and Yagami comment on the question I called prejudicial, Oman agrees with Yagami that Nelly's answer is void. Direct contradiction of what he said in 36.

43-47: General speculation on the Albert kill and on flavour. Little bit of fishing on rolenames. Small run-in with GoW.

48-49: First time he directly states that he opposes the Albert wagon (which is at 5 votes). This comes immediately after my 435, in which I return from a break and give a case against the lynch (though Xdaamno did ask him directly whether he supported the lynch just before that).

50-54: Again speculating about names and flavour. Continues to disagree with the Albert wagon.

55-57: Minor run-in with GoW, FoSes him for reaching.

58: More defence on Albert.

59-68: Goes back to GoW, who now has a wagon building on him. Votes GoW (4th vote).

69-70: Doesn't buy GoW's vanilla townie claim, then switches and unvotes in the his post after Nelly says he doesn't like his non-acceptance. Decides to look at Xdaamno again.

71-75: More speculation on names. After all his speculation, he asks GoW why he nameclaimed so early. Breadcrumbs a power role by saying "my name is related to my powers in a well-flavoured way (thus my reluctance to join this fun little nameclaim), is anyone elses like mine?". Then says that he doesn't think names are the way to find scum(!). Retracts the question in 73 when Yagami points out the obvious flaw.

76-78: Votes Xdaamno without reasoning (3rd vote). Says in 77 that it was for protecting GoW, and also for approving of GoW wagon (which Oman was on). Weird. In 78, asks MoS for more to back up his vote, when he votes without reasoning the same way that Oman did.

79: Says that N9V looks bad if Albert is scum. Huge FoS on both.

80-93: Staying on Xdaamno, some good reasoning and some not as good. Links Xdaamno to N9V. I really can't be bothered reading the whole thing again, but basically they want to lynch each other, it seems.

94-95: Wants a prod or replace on N9V. Another big post re: Xdaamno.

*End of Day 1.

Day 2 should be fresh enough that I don't have to do the same summary for that stuff.

Conclusions:

The general level of fishing and speculation was very high, especially considering he says at one point that he doesn't think names are indicative of scum.

He had a strong tendency towards voting for players whom others had expressed suspicion towards. He was on almost every wagon day 1, barring Albert's, and tended to FoS players, but not vote them until someone else started a wagon. There are a couple of other occasions where he seemingly turns on a dime when he realises the town doesn't support one of his ideas (e.g. post 70). He also spends a lot of time asking for other peoples' opinions on particular players.

There are some contradictions evident in 31, 32, 42 and 71.

Despite suspecting N9V all day, and even linking Xdaamno with him at the end of the day, his vote was on Xdaamno at the end of the day while N9V needed only 3 more votes for a lynch. The Xdaamno wagon clearly had no momentum - I even explicitly stated that I'd rather lynch N9V despite Xdaamno looking scummy.

I'll look through Oman's Day 2 posts before I decide for sure, but I'm tending to agree with TCS right now.

In response to Oman's post above: it wasn't your fault that N9V wasn't lynched, but you didn't help. Skruffs and zu Faul were neither as suspicious of N9V as you, nor as active as you near the deadline.

[Erg0]

Way to pick one point out of four to argue with. I never did like your predecessor.

[Erg0]

This:

Despite suspecting N9V all day, and even linking Xdaamno with him at the end of the day, his vote was on Xdaamno at the end of the day while N9V needed only 3 more votes for a lynch. The Xdaamno wagon clearly had no momentum - I even explicitly stated that I'd rather lynch N9V despite Xdaamno looking scummy.

and this:

In response to Oman's post above: it wasn't your fault that N9V wasn't lynched, but you didn't help. Skruffs and zu Faul were neither as suspicious of N9V as you, nor as active as you near the deadline.

[Erg0]

Those people didn't post 24 hours before deadline asking for the leading vote-getter to be prodded. My point is that Oman clearly had the opportunity to switch, and he chose not to take it. As I said above, this is only one pillar of the argument, the entire case doesn't collapse just because you don't agree with that one point.

Anyway, nobody said the people not voting weren't scummy - this is not a mutually exclusive scenario. But we're not talking about them, we're talking about Oman. If you want to make a case on one of them then you can include that as one of the reasons they're scum, and I'll agree with you that it's scummy behaviour. It'll take more than that to get me to vote for them, though.

[Erg0]

What?

Did you actually read any of what I just posted?

[Erg0]

Like I said, that's only one of four points. In fact, it's the fourth of four points and probably the least significant. There's a whole massive post up there that you've ignored in order to attack one piece of evidence - the only reason the deadline vote is under discussion is because MoS questioned TCS on it.

And implying that I'm saying that everyone else who didn't switch to N9V is obv town is just completely false.

[Erg0]

"Once or twice" is a bit of an understatement. I saw at least four different posts on day 1 speculating heavily on rolenames and powers, plus the double voter speculation, plus more than one mention that you think this is a "power-heavy game". The talk about the NK at the start of today is another example. I don't necessarily think that speculating is scummy in and of itself, but I suspect you've fallen back on it in place of genuine analysis when you can't think of something townie to say.

You were only on Xdaamno the first time for a day or so, and unvoted him without any real comment. Your interactions with him were more like a conversation than an interrogation. If you mean the second Xdaamno wagon, that was late in the day and possibly designed as a distraction from the N9V wagon.

Given the choice between lynching a scummy lurker and lynching nobody, the lurker wins every time.

I've seen you as town, and this isn't that. You've been overly careful and too reliant on others' opinions. You're not a noob, you're just noobscum.

Vote: Oman

[Erg0]

This Oman wagon seems to be pretty much based on the fact that Oman didn't vote N9V yesterday.

I can't speak for everyone else, but that's only a very minor part of the reason that I'm voting for him. I've already explained this once and it seems that you're either ignoring me or wilfully misrepresenting me.

Am I the only one that thinks that 866 is Oman giving up?

I find it really odd that a number of people were clamouring for a case on Oman, and now that I've given one as promised we see a switch back to TCS. Oman may be an easy wagon, but I think I've shown ample reason why he's the right lynch.

I've got my eye on all of the people that are trying to turn this into an argument about Oman's vote at deadline. There's a helluva lot more to it than that.

[Erg0]

Guys, I was reading dinosaur comics mafia and freaktown, and someone wanted to lynch bm within the alst few posts of each game.

I thought, BM might think he was clever by making the mod scum, even though its stupid and unoriginal, and we should probably lynch him.

Let's talk about this tomorrow, we don't need the distraction at deadline.

[Erg0]

Skruffs, who are you responding to with the first part of that post?

[Erg0]

heatherlou: do you agree that there's a potential link between Oman and Setael?

[Erg0]

heatherlou: do you agree that there's a potential link between Oman and Setael?

I find it interesting that because someone defended me by saying that N9V was town and I shouldn't get lynched for not voting him, we suddenly have a potential link. Wow, erg0 are you just going to link everyone who doesn't help you lynch me to myself? Its gonna be hilarity when I come up town and your pressious links fail.

heatherlou is voting for N9V's replacement. If heatherlou believes N9V is scum then it's relevant whether she sees a link between the two of you, because she apparently doesn't think you're scummy in your own right.

This isn't a sudden link, it's been mentioned several times before. I'm not sure who you're saying defended you by saying N9V is town. Are you talking about Skruffs' post? I'm not sure who he's referring to there, but if he means you then he's missed the point by a fair distance because I don't think it could be argued that you didn't think N9V was scummy. I actually thought he might be talking about MoS being criticised for not voting for you.

[Erg0]

Unless, of course, you're both scum and she knows that she's dead when you get lynched.

[Erg0]

That may have been what you were referring to, but here's what you actually said:

This Oman wagon seems to be pretty much based on the fact that Oman didn't vote N9V yesterday.

That is patently untrue, only one person on the wagon (TCS) cited that as their base reason, and I had already explained that it was only a minor part of my argument. You can't pick and choose which points to respond to while ignoring the rest of the case. There was a substantial amount of other evidence against Oman, so dismissing one argument from TCS doesn't make Oman a townie. This kind of selective response is the same thing that Oman's been doing for the last two pages, and it's scummy as hell.

On post 804: How is me saying I'll do a case on Oman a distraction? He had a number of votes on him already and nobody else seemed like they were going to do a serious case, so I did it myself to help me make an informed decision on whether or not to support the wagon. I even clarified that in post 807. Kison's 810 is mildly irrelevant, but I wouldn't say it qualifies as a distraction.

In case anyone was wondering, I believe that the reason the TCS wagon fell away is that people were being reactionary when they jumped on, and realised as their initial annoyance with him faded that he wasn't a good lynch. Read his posts in isolation - yes, he's brash and opinionated, and that ticks people off, but there's not enough there to call him scum in my opinion. I'm not saying he's the towniest of townies either, but he's not on my "to lynch" list for today.

Incidentally, that list is extremely short.

[Erg0]

Ok, I have a plan.

We need a secondary vote on who is the second scummiest player, and that person should hammer Oman. That will effectively give us two shots at killing scum today, because if Oman is lying scum he dies and if he's telling the truth then the scummy player dropping the hammer dies. If the scummy player refuses to do it we can lynch them instead.

Two birds, one stone.

My preference is that Setael drops the hammer.

[Erg0]

This going well so far...

[Erg0]

Setael, the point is not whether or not you

want

to hammer Oman. We can choose the hammer voter independently of their suspicions of Oman - the only consideration is whether we find them (the voter) scummy or not. Obviously their position on Oman will be influential because he's the hot topic of conversation right now, but that's not the central issue. What I'm doing is trying to give us a way to test Oman's claim with minimal potential loss to the town. If the town reaches consensus then that person can either hammer and take the chance, or die in his place.

[Erg0]

You mean after Bobby (whose role was Michael Jordan) died. Jordan himself died last night. I know it's confusing.

[Erg0]

Well I'm expecting Oman's self vote any time now, since the person he's voting for just offered to kill himself.

[Erg0]

EBWOP: oops, just realised Oman's voting for flea. Ignore the above.

[Erg0]

TCS already said he would hammer, so you're addressing a problem that doesn't exist. Hypothetically, anyone that refused to hammer should be lynched in his place, though in practice we probably don't have time.

[Erg0]

You'd have more credibility if you voted me the first time I said it.

[Erg0]

Well then how are we supposed to implement the plan? The person that we vote to lynch doesn't get to say "but I don't want to be lynched". Assuming that we had reached a consensus on who should hammer, why should this be any different?

Like I said, nobody raised this as an issue when I proposed the idea in 925, and now we're being distracted by an argument about a completely moot point. This is highly counter-productive, especially given that Oman is no longer at lynch -1 and deadline is getting dangerously close. A token vote on principle is

entirely

pointless when it puts us in danger of a second no lynch in a row. How are we ever going to win this game if we can't even lynch someone?

[Erg0]

Then why don't you put him at -1 so TCS can hammer, then? He was on the wagon and has only unvoted because he volunteered to hammer. I'm fine with that because it's probably the closest we can get to satisfying both camps at this point in time.

[Erg0]

That's funny, I don't remember you mentioning Albert as possible scum before this. In fact, you haven't talked about hi mat all on Day 2.

[Erg0]

Gah, my search fu is weak. You've mentioned him once, but only in passing.

[Erg0]

Anything more to it than that one point of theory that we disagree on? I'll argue that with you if you want, but I strongly believe that it would be a waste of time. If there's something else to the case then feel free to let me know.

Vote: Setael

, incidentally.

[Erg0]

So you can't make a case against me because you think I'm scum? That's the most brilliant non-answer I've heard in a while.

[Erg0]

Ugh. Yay for disregarding 41 pages of content and voting based on one hypothetical point.

I seriously don't want to drag this out, but I can prove you wrong if you really need me to.

[Erg0]

Ok then:

The plan, as proposed, was that we should vote on the next scummiest player and require that player to hammer Oman. The idea is that we essentially get a second lynch option for the day if Oman is telling the truth about his role, because the person we select to hammer will die. The point of the exercise is to choose the person that we would lynch of we were not going to lynch Oman. The selected individual's opinions on Oman are irrelevant to the exercise, the point is that the will of the town states that they are scummiest and should be the one to potentially die.

This is why I say that we should lynch any player that refuses to comply. If this were a real lynch vote rather than a simulation, the individual does not have an option on whether to be lynched - once the town decides, that's it. My statement was intended to convey the the concept that the same would apply if we were to vote on the chosen hammerer. As with a normal lynch, if the person chose to claim before they reached a majority then that would be taken into account in the voting as each individual saw fit, but it doesn't get them an auto-out. The person who receives the majority of votes hammers or gets lynched - the town has spoken. If we didn't apply this rule then the entire exercise would be completely pointless.

Point is, we

didn't

fully adopt the plan, and therefore this isn't relevant to anything. At all.

[Erg0]

Point is, we

didn't

fully adopt the plan, and therefore this isn't relevant to anything. At all.

So if I say we should lynch the claimed cop, and it doesn't happen, we just disregard that attempt?

No, we shouldn't - but I didn't say that, or anything like it. I said we should force the person with the most votes to hammer, regardless of other factors. If somebody claims cop and a bunch of people still vote for them, then on their heads be it.

You're either not reading carefully or deliberately strawmanning me.

The plan I proposed is functionally identical to the normal lynching process.

Feel free to take the idea into account in your assessment of my play, but at least try to understand what I'm saying first.

[Erg0]

vote: Erg0

Post 1036 is absolutely incoherent babble.

And

this

is why I didn't want to get into this. We'll waste a bunch of time arguing over it until you realise I'm right, and then we'll be a day from deadline with nobody to lynch.

[Erg0]

I'd like you to tell me why you think that.

[Erg0]

That was to GoW, obv.

[Erg0]

I'm not suggesting that we do this now - this is in relation to the plan that I proposed in post 925 (for the first Oman lynch), which MoS and Kison apparently now have an issue with.

[Erg0]

I don't think that I'll win all arguments, I just know that I'll win this one because MoS, Kison and GoW are all arguing from a faulty premise - in reading their posts, I can clearly see that they don't understand what I'm saying. Having said that , I'm not going to discuss this particular subject any further unless and until a larger number of people show that they care about it.

As for the attitude, I'm annoyed with some people for wasting the town's time with pointless votes this close to deadline. We've had a hard enough time gaining a full majority in this game as it is without this kind of grandstanding distracting the town. We've got 42 pages' worth of posts to use as evidence, yet they're focusing on one quote from two pages ago that they don't even grasp the meaning of. It frustrates me.

I agree with you that Skruffs' idea to get ABR to hammer you seems odd and out of place. There's no reason to do anything other than vote to lynch at this point, we just don't have time for anything else. I'm going with Setael because I still have my suspicions of N9V from yesterday, and Setael has done nothing to change those feelings. I think that basing our second lynch entirely on how people reacted to Oman's claim is extremely risky.

[Erg0]

Setael: We simulposted, my reasons are above. Add shameless wagoning with flimsy reasoning to the list.

[Erg0]

Setael: The reason that I pushed hard for someone to hammer was that if Oman's claim was truthful then he wasn't going to die. If we had a scummy player hammer him then it was a no-lose situation for the town - if Oman's scum, he dies, if Oman's town, the scummy player dies. TCS wasn't my ideal candidate (you were), but he seemed a reasonable compromise since his was the second biggest wagon today. Would you have preferred that we all back off and not test the claim? I'd rather find out now if he's telling the truth than have to risk losing a player at a crucial point in the game.

Besides which, there was no way we were going to get another wagon up before deadline and I really didn't want a second consecutive no lynch.

I gave plenty of reasons to vote N9V on day 1, and they just haven't changed all that much. With the limited time available, that seems like a good loose end to pursue.

MoS: Actually,

this

is how I put it the first time:

We need a secondary vote on who is the second scummiest player, and that person should hammer Oman. That will effectively give us two shots at killing scum today, because if Oman is lying scum he dies and if he's telling the truth then the scummy player dropping the hammer dies. If the scummy player refuses to do it we can lynch them instead.

The quote that was being bandied about was an offhand reference to a single aspect of this plan, which I made with the assumption that people had actually read the original post. I referred back to post 925 in 981, which came almost immediately after you first voted me for this. Perhaps now you can see the source of my annoyance.

[Erg0]

The only way that it's not obvious what I was referring to is if you read that post and that post only. A quick glance through my last ten or so posts would have revealed that I'd already discussed the same point twice. Even if you didn't look back, after you voted me for it in 978 I told you directly in posts 979 and 981 that it wasn't the first time I'd said it, and referred you back to 925. Despite this, you left your vote in place and re-voted me for the same thing in 1027, and it wasn't until I explained it

again

that you unvoted. Either you didn't read all of my posts, or you're looking way too hard for someone to wagon. Possibly both.

I'm liking Kison and GoW even less for just following you on without looking beyond the information that you presented. GoW doesn't even seem to have been aware of the fact that I was talking about a past event rather than a current idea.

[Erg0]

Yeah, ok. It's

my

fault that you didn't read the post that I directed you to in my defence. If you were paying proper attention then I wouldn't have had to point it out in the first place, and I wouldn't have had to explain the same thing three times before it sank in. Try to be a little more sure of your facts the next time you feel like posting something like this:

I voted Erg0 as an expression of my belief that he should be the one to die. Not Oman, not TCS. Erg0-scum is the one we need dead.

[Erg0]

Para I see what you're saying. But lets remember 90% of that list is ABR as a player.

Has anyone else here (besides me) played with ABRscum before?

[Erg0]

I'd think that the role name would be the least likely thing for Oman to lie about. If anything, the death miller aspect seems like an attempt to mitigate the impact of his death on his buddies (if he is indeed scum). If he lied about his rolename then we'd find out when he died, rendering the death miller gambit useless since we wouldn't believe that either.

Having said that, it could just be that he got carried away with the fakeclaim and tacked on one more aspect than he should have.

I played with ABRscum in a newbie game not that long ago, and his playstyle in that game was quite obviously off - he was relatively quiet and cautious, to the point that I (as the cop) investigated him night 1 because he just didn't seem like himself. His playstyle in this game just doesn't seem to fit with what I've seen, though he may have been experimenting or he may just have fixed the flaw in his scum play after I pointed it out to him. I'm curious whether others have had similar experiences with him as scum.

[Erg0]

For three days I'm down as a different role name and as a different allignment (The flavour idea is that Jesus wasn't revealed as Jesus until the third day). Its incredibly bastard mod, but it does go away.

Ah ok, didn't realise you were saying that the flavour was different as well. That invalidates my previous statement about you being more likely to fake the role than the flavour.

So, revealed roles so far are:

Cop
Townie
SK
Jack of all Trades
Dayvig (if you believe Albert)

I don't really see how "supersaint three night death miller" fits into that list. If true, that would be incredibly bastardly. I'm starting to feel that it's more likely not to be true, though.

FoS: Oman

[Erg0]

If anything, it looks like we've shown that Albert is always like this as a townie. I'm more interested in whether others have had a similar experience to mine in playing with him as scum.

[Erg0]

I'm invoking Occam. In my view, an overly complex role like Oman is claiming just doesn't fit into what we've seen of the rest of the setup. Chances are that if it says scum on the tin then it's scum inside.

Unvote, Vote: Oman

From a practical perspective, we need to find a lynch we can agree on quickly if we're going to get the needed votes before deadline. I believe that Oman and Albert/CES look like our best chances of doing that, and I prefer this wagon to the other one.

[Erg0]

Occam's'razor could be used in different ways. It seems to me the simplest answer would be that oman is telling the truth. The cop, if any, waits until night 3 and inspects him. Course, we've lost one inspection role Per Day, which isn't looking too good.

According to Oman, his true alignment isn't revealed until three days after he dies, not on day 3 of the game. He's effectively unconfirmable until he dies, and even then not immediately. This is part of the reason that I think we're better off lynching him now - at least that way we have some chance of knowing if he's telling the truth before the game is over.

[Erg0]

I apologise if this has been raised already, but I just noticed that on page 1 it says that TCS was "suffocated". That doesn't sound very Jesus-like to me.

[Erg0]

I understand that, but there's at least a tenuous link between Albert's claim and his powers. Instinctively, I feel that this belongs in the 'may' category more than the 'may not' category, but it's entirely possible I'm wrong. I did think it was worth pointing out, however, since nobody seems to have noticed this previously.

I don't suppose The Shroud is from Turin?

[Erg0]

So you did, my apologies. I thought you were referring to the death scene itself rather than the status on the front page, but I missed the specific mention of suffocation.

[Erg0]

Things are pretty fractured right now, I just can't see anywhere to put a vote that will actually do any good.

Unvote, Vote: Cogito Ergo Sum

I guess. I'd rather lynch him than no lynch, but I doubt he'll get the votes.

[Erg0]

I should point out that of the four votes on me:

• Kison's
  should
  have been retracted when he accepted my explanation in post 1060.
  
• CES's was self-admitted random bandwagoning
  
• Fritzler's was made without giving any kind of reasoning.

Only GoW's vote has any kind of substance to it (though I disagree with his reasoning), so I think the 4 vote total is misleading.

[Erg0]

Well that was a day late.

[Erg0]

You missed one:

I notice that, despite Albert's profession of love, he did not respond to Skruffs' request for a full flavour claim. Having re-read the events surrounding Albert's kill on Bobby, I'm feeling slightly less positive about him than I was before, though I'd still rather lynch someone linked to him (e.g. N9V) and work back from there.