Open 554 - omg, like, jungle republic!! + game over~~

[Majiffy]

For users of Chrome having issues logging in; clear your cache.

Press Ctrl+Shift+Del when in your browser to open up the prompt.

Should work after that.

[Marquis]

"AAAAAAAAAAAAH!!!"

Oh no! The sun disappeared! And everyone screamed like kids like to do when the lights go out!

(The sun returned in a week. Everything was back to normal, except

mnemonicdevice

was still missing. This is flavor so masterful it could have been cooked up by Paula Deen. Hearty, buttery goodness. Mmmmm. Yum.)

---

votecount 4.2!!

mnemonicdevice (2) ::

Not_Mafia, Majiffy (L-2)

not voting (4) ::

Justin Playfair, Katarina LeBlanc, Lia, mnemonicdevice

deadline has been near-reset (12 days from post) ::

(expired on 2014-06-09 16:00:00)

with 6 alive, it takes 4 votes to lynch!!

still searching for a replacement for mnemonicdevice..

and sending out prods/reminders to anyone who hasn't posted yet today

[Majiffy]

"AAAAAAAAAAAAH!!!"

Oh no! The sun disappeared! And everyone screamed like kids like to do when the lights go out!

(The sun returned in a week. Everything was back to normal, except

mnemonicdevice

was still missing. This is flavor so masterful it could have been cooked up by Paula Deen. Hearty, buttery goodness. Mmmmm. Yum.)

I know what happened to MS now.

[Marquis]

Thor665 replaces mnemonicdevice

[Justin Playfair]

@Majiffy...I hated Mnemonic's intent to hammer/no intent to hammer, but looking at his overall play at this point it seems as likely to have been the play of an uninvolved player as a scummy one. What makes you so sure he's the right lynch that you'd be willing to string him up in absentia?

And hi, Thor.

[Thor665]

Greetings.

So, one or more of the people voting me (that would be Not_Mafia and Majiffy) should really present a brilliant case for why mneumonic was scum that *doesn't* have to do with lurking. Otherwise I'm going to call both the wagon and you derptastic failsacks.

What's the rest of the gamestate besides a pretty lolfail lurker wagon that's about to fall apart?

[Thor665]

Also, could someone give me a quick rundown on the NK speculation on the three dead players - that would also be helpful at this stage.

[Majiffy]

What makes you so sure he's the right lynch that you'd be willing to string him up in absentia?

POEing the shit out of this game. Plus I had other reasons to read him as scum that I can't remember from the outage.

So, one or more of the people voting me (that would be Not_Mafia and Majiffy) should really present a brilliant case for why mneumonic was scum that *doesn't* have to do with lurking. Otherwise I'm going to call both the wagon and you derptastic failsacks.

You could probably ISO mnem and find out why I have the read I do on your slot. Otherwise just make yourself look town, because you can do that, right? Being town and all? Mmkay.

Also, could someone give me a quick rundown on the NK speculation on the three dead players - that would also be helpful at this stage.

Haven't gotten to that yet. Although I

am

curious why I'm not dead yet, having led lynches on two scum back to back.

[Lia]

Hi Thor!

My main reason for suspecting mnemonic, apart from POE, was the way he backtracked on Finglove. And I see my other remaining suspect, Justin, is now defending him against that. Which makes me think you two may be the mafia and one of my town reads is the remaining wolf.

Also, could someone give me a quick rundown on the NK speculation on the three dead players - that would also be helpful at this stage.

I don't think there has been any speculation on them yet, apart from Majiffy's comment about not being killed.

[Not_Mafia]

Mine is mainly PoE, I just can't see Mnemonic town next to Majiffy and Kat

[Marquis]

Katarina LeBlanc has not picked up her "prod" in 48 hours, and is being replaced..

[Marquis]

and reinoe replaces kat~

will be prodding Justin Playfair if he does not post by this deadline:

(expired on 2014-05-31 09:00:00)

[reinoe]

Yeah, hey peoples!

Lol at Day 4 22 pages.

I'm vanilla townie.

[reinoe]

Finglove (6) :: Majiffy, Not_Mafia, jon_h61, Shattered Viewpoint, Ninja Trigger, Katarina LeBlanc, enomis (L-0)
jon_h61 (1) :: S and Em (L-6)
Katarina LeBlanc (1) :: TierShift (L-6)
S and Em (1) :: Wolfy (L-6)
Shattered Viewpoint (1) :: Finglove (L-6)
Wolfy (1) :: mnemonicdevice (L-6)

not voting (0) ::

Mafia goon lynched day 1. Who's not on the wagon of mafia goon lynch?
mnemonic/thor 665, tiershift, s and em, wolfy, finglove.

Now who's still alive?
mnemonic/thor665.

Nice one of the mafia goons bussed, but two mafia goons bussing on Day 1? Nope.

Thor665 is scum.

VOTE: Thor665

[reinoe]

Ninja Trigger (6) :: TierShift, Majiffy, Katarina LeBlanc, Not_Mafia, Wolfy, S and Em (L-0)
Wolfy (2) :: Ninja Trigger, Lia (L-4)
TierShift (1) :: Justin Playfair (L-5)

not voting (1) :: mnemonicdevice

Werewolf lynched day 2.

Not on the lynch: NinjaTrigger, Lia, Justin Playfair, mnemonicdevice/Thor665

Who's still alive.
Lia, Justin Playfair, mnemonicdevice/Thor665

Lia

<---

One Of These Two is werewolf

--->

Justin Fairplay,

mnemonicdevice

<---This guy is mafia goon.

[Justin Playfair]

My main reason for suspecting mnemonic, apart from POE, was the way he backtracked on Finglove. And I see my other remaining suspect, Justin, is now defending him against that. Which makes me think you two may be the mafia and one of my town reads is the remaining wolf.

Hi Lia.

I'm not defending Thor/Mnemonic so much as becoming increasingly uncomfortable with Majiffy. I feel pretty sure at this point that Majiffy is our last wolf, and not just because he's taken such pains to express relief that werewolves didn't kill him. There's also the fact that though Majiffy called out Ninjatrigger's scummy behavior on day two he didn't vote him immediately. Contrast that with Majiffy's voting behavior on days three and four. So Majiffy's slams down votes on Wolfy and mnemonic/thor with his first posts on days three and four without any explanation...

...but on day two he calls out Ninjatrigger but waits until Tiershift casts the first vote before putting his there. And oddly enough the only morning Majiffy doesn't express his relief to be alive is the morning after a werewolf was lynched.

As far as mnemonic goes I was initially very suspicious of his intent to hammer/no he'd never hammer on Finglove, but looking at it now what I can't quite make work is how it adds up to scum specific play as opposed to bad null play. It his intent to hammer post was meant as some kind of phantom bussing of his scumbuddy his immediate retraction under the mildest pressure draws more attention to him (and the exchange) than doing nothing at all. If retracting his intent to hammer was meant to derail the wagon why didn't he follow it up with any sort of...anything that might have led town in a different direction?

Beyond that the closest we have to a real tell on mnemonic/Thor was the fact that he never did vote for Finglove.

Yes, it is easy to lynch the low content, lurker slot. But it's not a great way to hunt scum.

At this point I think the most likely mafia is Katarina/Reinoe. And maybe it works in concert with a Katarina and mnemonic scum team, but I just don't think so. Katarina slips onto the Finglove wagon with the next to last vote. She does this after several posts in which she pointed out that she didn't suspect Finglove. The reason she gives for voting Finglove is because Enomis stopped voting Finglove. And even after she settles her vote on the wagon she posts this:

I could flash wagon on jon, we can probably do that too.

and even throws the chaff into the air that is post 187.


Anyway, by my way of thinking we are probably in the same place tomorrow morning whether we lynch mafia or wolf today. If we lynch wolf we're at three to two and if we lynch mafia the wolf has no reason not to kill tonight, and we probably wake up to two-one-one. There's a one in four shot, though, that wolf hits Mafia, which would leave us at three to one, and so I'm going to:

Vote: Reinoe

By the way, Reinoe, Lia wasn't just not voting Ninja, she was actually voting with him, as, at the time of Ninja's lynch, one of only two votes on Wolfy. Lia is the least likely wolf in town.

[reinoe]

If 540 is the type of drivel that passes as analysis then no wonder town is in such bad shape this game.

1)I love how you always have this super suspicious read of mnemonic but someone else is always just a little bit scummier Justin.

2)Lia voting in concert with NinjaTrigger doesnt' mean shit.

3)You analysis doesn't even consider the prospect of lynching town. Yeah, becuase it's a very strong chance it's game over tomorrow if town gets lynched and then werewolves kill town tonight. Hence why I am being completely and totally honest and open. Werewolves have to work with town tonight to lynch a goon because an erroneous nightkill tonight leads to a mafia win. Somehow you didn't facter these facts into that shitstorm you think looks like "analysis".

4)You're saying there's a slim chance that Thor and I are a scum team? Let me dissuade you of all thoughts on that. Thor needs to be lynched today. I will continue pushing his lynch today. Unless a seer pops up and claims they've found the werewolf I don't see how I will possibly be convinced that Thor is not mafia goon. I don't really know how to make this any clearer to you: I'm pretty sure thor is not town and is thus not on my team.

[Justin Playfair]

3)You analysis doesn't even consider the prospect of lynching town. Yeah, becuase it's a very strong chance it's game over tomorrow if town gets lynched and then werewolves kill town tonight. Hence why I am being completely and totally honest and open. Werewolves have to work with town tonight to lynch a goon because an erroneous nightkill tonight leads to a mafia win. Somehow you didn't facter these facts into that shitstorm you think looks like "analysis".

First, there was no reason to discuss what the consequences were should town mislynch today. Not_Mafia and Majiffy already did that. My consideration was whether to vote for someone I believe to be mafia or someone I believe to be a wolf, and I chose to vote for the person I think is most likely mafia for that reason.

Second, the wolf has to work with town today to lynch a goon. Not tonight.

Third...

Hence why I am being completely and totally honest and open. Werewolves have to work with town tonight to lynch a goon because an erroneous nightkill tonight leads to a mafia win.

So this situation, in which the wolf and town have to work together, is why you are being completely and totally honest and open? Because otherwise you'd be dishonest and concealing...town?

You know, I might owe Majiffy an apology come tomorrow. But I really like my vote right now.

[Marquis]

the rare mid-page votecount

---

votecount 4.3!!

Thor665 (3) ::

Not_Mafia, Majiffy, reinoe (L-1)

reinoe (1) ::

Justin Playfair (L-3)

not voting (2) ::

Lia, Thor665

deadline is 9 days from this post ::

(expired on 2014-06-09 16:00:00)

with 6 alive, it takes 4 votes to lynch!!

Thor665 and Majiffy have both hit the over-48-hours-without-posting mark, but they have this much time until i get back online to prod ::

(expired on 2014-06-01 00:00:00)

[Majiffy]

540 is lol.

[Thor665]

POEing the Smurf out of this game. Plus I had other reasons to read him as scum that I can't remember from the outage.
[snip]
You could probably ISO mnem and find out why I have the read I do on your slot. Otherwise just make yourself look town, because you can do that, right? Being town and all? Mmkay.

Explain your PoE please? I'd especially love to learn who is confirmed town and why.

Also, the second comment is wussy and useless in equal degrees - just try to back up your case and position and try to look town yourself.

Haven't gotten to that yet. Although I

am

curious why I'm not dead yet, having led lynches on two scum back to back.

Well...either you're a wolf or the wolves are convinced you're town. That seems to cover it, right? Am I missing something? Which do you think it is?

Hi Thor!

Greetings.

My main reason for suspecting mnemonic, apart from POE

Please explain this PoE? I'd like to see your cleared town reads mostly, and reasoning therefor.

was the way he backtracked on Finglove. And I see my other remaining suspect, Justin, is now defending him against that.

Showcase the Finglove backtrack?

I don't think there has been any speculation on them yet, apart from Majiffy's comment about not being killed.

Why not? Clearly the Wolves at this stage are either hunting Mafia or they are not, and Wolves are likely to be arguing for lynches of people they suspect to be mafia, so anyone who had someone flip town after being after them for a while the day prior is already a decent wolf consideration at that stage. Also, any mafia team considerations where certain people have been ruled out can help spot potential wolves by which pairs the wolves have chosen to shoot at or not.

I'm actually concerned that Majiffy, who is expressing concern about being alive, *hasn't* done this yet...are you sure he hasn't? And if not, why is he bewildered that he is alive but not doing NK analysis? That makes no sense.

@Majiffy - Weigh in on that too, yeah?

Mine is mainly PoE, I just can't see Mnemonic town next to Majiffy and Kat

Okay...third verse same as the first (at least it's good to know there isn't a case on me) please explain your PoE.

Also, could all these PoE people tell me whether I'm a Wolf or Mafia? Clearly your PoE has figured that out too (I grok that Lia is going 'Mafia' which already makes me think she's likely town since she was making that comment right away and not taking the easy and lazy out, so I think she's actually thinking about stuff.) You other two I'm not so sure.

Nice one of the mafia goons bussed, but two mafia goons bussing on Day 1? Nope.

Okay...are you aware that mnemonic device never posted at any stage during the buildup of the wagon. In other words, he wasn't even around to either bus or not to bus because he wasn't even aware the wagon was happening.

How does this work into your theory?
Also, I'd love to see your response to Justin...I agree with him about your slip there. I think you're the wolf.

[reinoe]

mneumonic device hasn't done shit all game so he's not aware of anything ever. And that doesn't do anything to refute what I said. Do you believe that both mafiascum bussed Finglove Day 1? I think hell fucking no.

Remember...

VOTE: Thor665

[reinoe]

Oh yeah, you're at L-1 so you should claim.

[Thor665]

mneumonic device hasn't done Smurf all game so he's not aware of anything ever. And that doesn't do anything to refute what I said.

Actually...yes, yes it does. You're saying I'm scum because both scum wouldn't have bussed - except that no concious choice was made by Mneumonic, meaning the tell is relatively meaningless as to his motivation for not voting a supposed buddy. If he failed to bus it had nothing to do with an actual fear of bussing, but was rather simply because he wasn't around to maybe bus. At that point, your case is simply one of random odds...and you've failed to show that the odds favor the direction you're claiming they do.

Do you believe that both mafiascum bussed Finglove Day 1? I think hell fucking no.

No - but that's because I'm in the unique position of knowing they both did. That said - if I showed you a game where this happened would you drop the case?

Oh yeah, you're at L-1 so you should claim.

I claim on hammer intent - not on scummy opportunist demand.

You haven't addressed your slip as requested. Could you do so now? I mean, I know it's freaking you out and you're trying to bully and advance my lynch in desperation now, but, honestly, if you'd like to claim wolf, it would be helpful in allowing me to puzzle out mafia easier.

[reinoe]

@MOD

If we get into a situation of 2 mafia goons, 1 townie, one werewolf, do the mafia win?