Open 554 - omg, like, jungle republic!! + game over~~

[Thor665]

Greetings.

So, one or more of the people voting me (that would be Not_Mafia and Majiffy) should really present a brilliant case for why mneumonic was scum that *doesn't* have to do with lurking. Otherwise I'm going to call both the wagon and you derptastic failsacks.

What's the rest of the gamestate besides a pretty lolfail lurker wagon that's about to fall apart?

[Thor665]

Also, could someone give me a quick rundown on the NK speculation on the three dead players - that would also be helpful at this stage.

[Thor665]

POEing the Smurf out of this game. Plus I had other reasons to read him as scum that I can't remember from the outage.
[snip]
You could probably ISO mnem and find out why I have the read I do on your slot. Otherwise just make yourself look town, because you can do that, right? Being town and all? Mmkay.

Explain your PoE please? I'd especially love to learn who is confirmed town and why.

Also, the second comment is wussy and useless in equal degrees - just try to back up your case and position and try to look town yourself.

Haven't gotten to that yet. Although I

am

curious why I'm not dead yet, having led lynches on two scum back to back.

Well...either you're a wolf or the wolves are convinced you're town. That seems to cover it, right? Am I missing something? Which do you think it is?

Hi Thor!

Greetings.

My main reason for suspecting mnemonic, apart from POE

Please explain this PoE? I'd like to see your cleared town reads mostly, and reasoning therefor.

was the way he backtracked on Finglove. And I see my other remaining suspect, Justin, is now defending him against that.

Showcase the Finglove backtrack?

I don't think there has been any speculation on them yet, apart from Majiffy's comment about not being killed.

Why not? Clearly the Wolves at this stage are either hunting Mafia or they are not, and Wolves are likely to be arguing for lynches of people they suspect to be mafia, so anyone who had someone flip town after being after them for a while the day prior is already a decent wolf consideration at that stage. Also, any mafia team considerations where certain people have been ruled out can help spot potential wolves by which pairs the wolves have chosen to shoot at or not.

I'm actually concerned that Majiffy, who is expressing concern about being alive, *hasn't* done this yet...are you sure he hasn't? And if not, why is he bewildered that he is alive but not doing NK analysis? That makes no sense.

@Majiffy - Weigh in on that too, yeah?

Mine is mainly PoE, I just can't see Mnemonic town next to Majiffy and Kat

Okay...third verse same as the first (at least it's good to know there isn't a case on me) please explain your PoE.

Also, could all these PoE people tell me whether I'm a Wolf or Mafia? Clearly your PoE has figured that out too (I grok that Lia is going 'Mafia' which already makes me think she's likely town since she was making that comment right away and not taking the easy and lazy out, so I think she's actually thinking about stuff.) You other two I'm not so sure.

Nice one of the mafia goons bussed, but two mafia goons bussing on Day 1? Nope.

Okay...are you aware that mnemonic device never posted at any stage during the buildup of the wagon. In other words, he wasn't even around to either bus or not to bus because he wasn't even aware the wagon was happening.

How does this work into your theory?
Also, I'd love to see your response to Justin...I agree with him about your slip there. I think you're the wolf.

[Thor665]

mneumonic device hasn't done Smurf all game so he's not aware of anything ever. And that doesn't do anything to refute what I said.

Actually...yes, yes it does. You're saying I'm scum because both scum wouldn't have bussed - except that no concious choice was made by Mneumonic, meaning the tell is relatively meaningless as to his motivation for not voting a supposed buddy. If he failed to bus it had nothing to do with an actual fear of bussing, but was rather simply because he wasn't around to maybe bus. At that point, your case is simply one of random odds...and you've failed to show that the odds favor the direction you're claiming they do.

Do you believe that both mafiascum bussed Finglove Day 1? I think hell fucking no.

No - but that's because I'm in the unique position of knowing they both did. That said - if I showed you a game where this happened would you drop the case?

Oh yeah, you're at L-1 so you should claim.

I claim on hammer intent - not on scummy opportunist demand.

You haven't addressed your slip as requested. Could you do so now? I mean, I know it's freaking you out and you're trying to bully and advance my lynch in desperation now, but, honestly, if you'd like to claim wolf, it would be helpful in allowing me to puzzle out mafia easier.

[Thor665]

@Thor Majiffy is town because he lead wagons on both factions, I'm aware that bussing exists but neither felt like a bus to me, we know now that at least one of the mafia did bus but he's made himself too much of an NK target to be mafia. Kat is town because I found her tentativeness surrounding the Finglove wagon genuine so I don't think she's mafia and I don't think her early game interactions with Ninja come from scumpartners

Okay, so your theory is that me, Lia, and Justin are the scum.
You're advancing a Thor/Justin Mafia and Lia Werewolf - yes?

Also, I can see the Majiffy townread and understand it. That's fine.
Can you expand on this Kat one though? It isn't very clear to me, and if you're using it as PoE I'm sure you can describe it more fully. Specifically what was tentative, and why does that make her town, and also what is the Ninja interaction that clears her?

So are you calling Reinoe Mafia or Werewolf, because the 'slip' you've highlighted in 541

would indicate Werewolf to me but you're pushing this as a mafia lynch

.

When was it pushed as a Mafia lynch? I would love to see that as it would highly affect my reads.

[Thor665]

Also, NM - your opinion on Reinoe ducking the slip would also be good to hear. Because he's blatantly doing it.

[Thor665]

POEing the Smurf out of this game. Plus I had other reasons to read him as scum that I can't remember from the outage.
[snip]
You could probably ISO mnem and find out why I have the read I do on your slot. Otherwise just make yourself look town, because you can do that, right? Being town and all? Mmkay.

Explain your PoE please? I'd especially love to learn who is confirmed town and why.

Also, the second comment is wussy and useless in equal degrees - just try to back up your case and position and try to look town yourself.

No one is confirmed town, but if I have townreads it's easier to start outside them.

And I'm lazy, damnit.

This is not an explanation of your PoE.
This is not...anything, really. You basically may as well have not posted a reply, or posted a reply of 'Proddodge!!!' for how useful that was for me or anyone else to learn about your alignment.
Please try again.

While your at it, also reply to all my opinions below (as in, Kat and N_M), and also weigh in on Reinoe responding to the slip. He's wagoning with you, so I'd love to hear your thoughts on that.

JP calling Reinoe slot mafia specifically

The post you quoted is from before the slip...I find this either not wise on your part or intentionally deceitful on your part. I'm not sure why it should work as a point against JP. Can you clarify this any?

Reinoe should respond to the slip accusations yes. I'll talk about the slip more once he has responded.

@Reinoe ^^^

That's 3 people now...so unless you think we're *all* scum...y'know...

Regarding Kat

Here is where I find her tentativeness around the wagon genuine and I find it a genuine concern over a mislynch rather than anything scum motivated

It reads equally well as partner not happy to hammer or alternate scum preferring to fish for town points than a quicklynch. Pretty neutral on it from my perspective - why does it feel so genuine to you? I'll agree she's saying words, but I'm not sure why it feels so honest and true.

And these are the interactions with NT that I don't see coming from scumpartners
[snip]
I could

maybe

see it as distancing, but I don't think so

No, I agree, that doesn't look like Wolf/Wolf interactions. I'll toss out agreement that I think neither she, nor you (for how you reacted to it) are likely wolves. I'm not sure what clears either of you from scum still at this point, but would love to have you sell me on that as far as Kat goes.

[Thor665]

That didn't really occur to me that the "slip" followed after these. If it hadn't, it would show inconsistency with case he's presenting and what he's saying in terms of what scumteam he's hunting, which would indicate he's one faction hunting the other.

Well...yes, that's why I asked you about it. Except your only example didn't gel with that concept. Now that you know the order was different...is he still scummy, or has the read there changed?

And about Kat, just tonally I found her posts sincere and born of genuine town concern, I think if it were her resisting a lynch on her partner it would have been at least somewhat evident, we're from the same homesite so I know she's only been scum twice and it looks like her townposting to me

How is her tone different when scum?
If you can't answer this - my next question will be 'then how do you believe you can spot her townposting enough to rule her out as scum and resort to PoE as a scumhunting tool?'

Also, now that Reinoe has responded to the slip, what is your take of his response?

Hence why I am being completely and totally honest and open. Werewolves have to work with town tonight to lynch a goon because an erroneous nightkill tonight leads to a mafia win.

If I'm correct they're reading this as you slipping up about your tactics as wolf

OK, so I did address this in 561.

If that's you addressing it then "I am vanilla town"
WHoop-dee-hiddle, now I just proved I'm not a wolf, is that legit in your mind?
Because it's not in mine.

Who do you think is the wolf if it's not you?
Who would you advise that person to shoot besides me?

@Majiffy - sweet, when you iso yourself to remind yourself of your reasoning, state it again so I can catch up without needing to iso you. When you get back, I'd like your opinion on the wagon on me now as well...considering I've asked people to back it up and the evidence supporting the wagon is...well...y'know, kind of self-apparent in my opinion for how valid of a wagon it is.

[Thor665]

If that's you addressing it then

[sarcasm]

"I am vanilla town"

[/sarcasm]

I think you're mafia scum. Prove by yours/mnemonic's posts that that slot is town. It's an uphill battle to be sure. Also why are you claiming now, when I asked you to claim earlier? Looks insincere to me.

Oh, my bad, I forgot to include the tags in my claim - I put them in for you.
I was trying to point out how silly your claim in your first post is as anything worth believing - I agree that you shouldn't believe it from me, but why do you think others should believe it by you. Functionally you're proving my point here - does this make sense now?

"If it's not you?" Confbias to the max.

Well, clearly I think it's you and clearly you don't.

And I wouldn't speculate on whom the werewolf should nightkill because as I mentioned earlier I have no idea who the final goon is.

So who are your town reads, if any?

What you're doing is trying to OMGUS the person who put you at L-1 and making accusations.

I don't think you understand what OMGUS is - if I'm making accusations then it's not just OMGUS.
Also, OMGUS isn't even scummy even if I was doing it.

Since you're a fan of confirmation bias, could you crumb a clue to us about whom the third mafia goon is? If there's a Scum QT or Private Topics can you give us some clues about your partner? I would really appreciate it.

Am I allowed to link mod communication? I'll do it if I am, you do it first and show me your role PM
But, seriously, you suspect Justin but don't see a reason to connect him and me like N_M has? I disagree with his conclusion but it has some reasonable basis at least as far as today goes - why don't you like N_M's case since it otherwise agrees with your reads?

[Thor665]

I have NotMafia, Jon and Kat as lean-town from their interactions with the Finglove wagon.

Can you expand on each individual one - I even already discussed Kat's interaction and found it lacking, maybe you should show what I missed, also expound on the other two.

Shattered and Ninja lean scum for their empty, wagon-jumping votes.

This coming from you and being told to me...
I know I don't actually consider unexplained votes scummy - do you now? What specifically made them bad?

Looks like the two slots that had the most to gain from an Enomis death were Ninja and mnemonic (particularly mnemonic).

Okay.
Why?

I say we split the difference and hit Ninja today, look at {Shattered, mnemonic} in the immediate future, work outside that set afterwards.

So your current suspects are Justin and I.
Are we wolves, mafia, or a mix, and who do you think is the third? By your list it sounds like Reinoe...and what alignment do you think he is? And if it isn't him, who is it?

[Thor665]

She's a lot more flaily as scum, so I don't think she'd have such a level headed and natural looking response to her partner being hard wagoned

That would sell me quite a bit.
Can you give me a link or two showing her flaily scum game?

[Thor665]

Here let me go pull another direct quote from my ISO again Thor...

Thank you - no need for the 'neutral' face, y'know. I'm being quite open that I expect you to do the work to present your own thoughts. I do believe that's a reasonable stance to ask someone to back up what they state to believe.

You and I both know I haven't read most of this game.

Scum doesn't say this.

There's Jon. I mentioned Kat and N_M elsewhere but frankly I'm really getting tired of your shenaniganry so I'm not doing any more legwork. Look for yourself.

Okay, two things;

1. I see * no distancing from FInglove at all here* I literally do not see it...nothing seems to even hint at it. What am I missing (this is a good reason I'm not doing the search myself, I'd have missed this entirely)

2. I have already discussed the Kat one (at least as much as N_M presented it) and have indicated why I disagree. If your reasons are the same as his, then please address my thoughts. If they're different - then maybe stating them again or quoting them would help him and I. I'll even accept a phrase of something I can Ctrl+F your ISO for - I'm ertainly willing to do that level of work.

Situational.

Okay.
What was the situation that made you consider them so?

Enomis was pushing them.

So you think scum is trying to kill people successfully chasing them...but you want to keep trying to lynch me, who you've been pushing on for multiple game days? WHy wouldn't scum kill you then if you were on the right track? This seems very shallow thinking on your part...how am I wrong here?

Jesus Smurf have you read

anything?

Only what I have been specifically linked to, and every post since I replaced in, and I don't intend to read the rest. This is what I always do, I'm sure you've seen it before. Are you actually confused or surprised by this?

Probably Reinoe, yeah. Recent posts have really bothered me.

I'm not alignment hunting. I'm just hitting scum.

....whoa, do you think that's a good strategy at this stage of the game?

The optimal lynch today is to accurately identify the Wolf and lynch him.
The secondary option is to correctly lynch Mafia though then we *need* to tag the Wolf tomorrow...so should be trying to find him regardless.
The third is to mislynch, but get the wolf to shoot Mafia, but that is still a situation of *needing* a Wolf lynch tomorrow.
We lose on a mislynch and a mis shot.

You should at least be Mafia hunting for the wolves, otherwise a mislynch and a mis shot means Mafia wins - do you understand why it's important to know the scum team you are connecting a person to now?

[Thor665]

@N_M - I actually don't think that looks particularly flaily unless you mean, by dropping some f-bombs. She stuck to her story, reiterated her stance, and it blew over in seconds and she got the lynch she wanted. Is it just the aggro level she went to? Because seems like she'd do that just based off the PR claim more than anything, yeah?

[Thor665]

@N_M - so...her not cussing during that period makes her town? I'm not sure I buy that...like, I'm actually sure I don't buy that. I feel like I'm missing something here, or you're trying to sell me a bent bill of cards.

@Reinoe - There are 6 players alive. 2 are mafia, 1 is werewolf. The werewolf has a kill effect, the mafia do not. The math is really quite simple, try to work it out and get back to me.

[Thor665]

Okay, I am not a fan of your PoE logic but understand your position as it stands on Kat.

You mention JP and Lia as possible considerations with me. You also appear to suspect Reinoe. What made me the best of the four to vote? It can't just be PoE or otherwise I could get you to vote Reinoe or something right now, so what's edging you towards me/Mneumonic. I wish to know so I can tell you how bad that logic is and get you to drop your vote.

[Thor665]

wow nice activity guys it's finally getting good

But of course - I'm here.

@N_M - the Thor/Justin case exists, though I'd note it's entirely from Justin's side of the equation. Roll that thought around in your head and see if wisdom comes.

I think Reinoe makes decent sense as a Wolf.
I think neither you nor Kat do.
I marginally lean Majiffy as scum, but am still working that angle.

Can you link me to your evidence of Justin not being a wolf and also maybe expand on why Lia makes sense as one? I have no sense of Lia.

Also, any Wolf who hasn't been trying to hit Mafia for at least a phase or two has a poor grasp of the rules.

[Thor665]

@Majiffy - I have a thought, but will admit I've been drinking today and would like to get it bounced off someone whose opinion I vaguely consider worth listening to when they aren't being a ponce.

I'll choose to phrase my seeking of an opinion to you this way - why has town not asked for the Seer to reveal?
Functionally, at this stage, a seer reveal gets a confirmed town, is happening the day before lylo, and, unless we lynch mafia today, the wolf is handing the game to mafia if he shoots the seer.
So, really, for wolf *and* town the optimal situation is to reveal the seer to rule out mislynch/mis shot for both.
Of course, after that the optimal town goal is to lynch wolf, while the optimal wolf goal is to get a Mafia lynch, but...at the end of the day a mafia lynch isn't bad for town.

Am I missing something?
I think I'm brilliant.
i just always think that because the tequila tells me it's true.

[Thor665]

And you and I both know that I hate repeating myself.

I can agree with that - but I like to force you to do it anyway because I think it forces you to be more pro-town if you're town. And I've never used it as a point against you as far as alignment goes, so you know my boggle with it is simply one of 'play the game, silly man-child' rather than 'this is a scum/town tell' anyways - so I don't know what your issue is besides being weird about explaining our thought process.

1. Well good, you're not supposed to see distancing from Finglove. This is a jontown case, not a jonscum case.

How does him making generic comments about not liking a town block that he isn't included in a town tell?

2. Maybe later.

The situation of the wagon. Two opposing scum teams, one bussing the other just voting because lolnotmyteam, etc.

So they were not on a given scum wagon and you take that as a towntell because you would expect bussing from partners and lynching from non-partners - do I have that right? Because if so, that would suggest I'm not scum. So I think I'm missing something in my understanding of what you're saying here.

You're wrong because it's late-game. That was the first kill, and I think we've gotten a wolf flip out of it already? So...?

No, that makes sense.

Plus you could always be kill-less mafia. This is a bad argument Thor and you know it.

This doesn't - what are you even accusing me of here?

Just thoroughly annoyed because if you're town you're not helping me

not

mislynch you.

I can't help it if you don't follow the OG flowchart.

Looks to me like we just need to hit scum, then hit scum again.

Which I'm pretty good at.

No - it's not. If we lynch Mafia twice in a row then Wolf wins. I want to smack you for sounding so dumb.
Sober up before assessing these things.

Seer hunts wolf. We get no cleared town, just "not wolf". And Wolf doesn't have to worry about hitting wolf.

I understand you think this is a rebuttal of my thought.
I do not understand the point you're making...I understand that Seer hunts wolf, I don't see how that changes things from my suggestion.

I'm feeling pretty effin' good about this Thor lynch. There are too many holes in Thor's theories, play, and general demeanor that just don't fit townThor.

If you honestly think there are holes in my theories it's because you think a scum lynch followed by a second scum lynch equates to a town win in this situation.
You do not appear to understand the setup at all - I'm almost praying it's deliberate but am worried you're just trying to e-peen measure with me instead of using your brain.

There are 6 players alive.
There are 3 scum alive.
We need to lynch Wolf asap.
This is not complicated.

Quite frankly, if a Mafia open claimed Mafia - I would be willing to sheep him and would defend him from lynch at this stage.
If you would do otherwise you are not qualified to lead this town out of a wet paper bag due to failure of understanding the game state.

Please tell me you grok this.

Thor, why aren't you voting for anyone?

Because I'm hunting for the wolf, and until I find the wolf with near certainty in my head I'm not voting.

[Thor665]

You're right.

Except no one has during this period really, because both of them are being lurksacks. You're also missing that I am asking *about* them, so if my goal was to not involve them because...of reasons...then I'm doing it in an awkward way.

[Thor665]

Just at a quick glance, it's been over 24 hours since either of them posted.

Since the point I joined the game Lia has made one post...saying she'll catch up. Yeah, how strange that I haven't interacted with her.
Johnny made 4 posts - half of them within 24 hours of me joining the game, during a period I think it is fair to say I was still asking people about their cases on me to understand that wagon - I didn't talk to him at that point because...I was doing other stuff. Another post he made was calling you out for the slip...which is a post I openly discussed and actually forced conversation about and made clear I agreed with him on. So it's not like I'm scared to associate myself with him.

Do you have any specific issues with my interactions with those two?
Other than generic mudslinging?

[Thor665]

How does him making generic comments about not liking a town block that he isn't included in a town tell?

I just don't see jonscum putting himself out like that early-game when he doesn't need to.

By generically opposing a town bloc that he wasn't in you think that made him a...target of the town bloc and thus was a risk a scum wouldn't take?

I don't really care enough to bother looking back or giving accurate answers, frankly. Deal with it.

Scum is scum, not wolf or mafia. I'm not discriminating at this point. If we get in the situation where I have to, then I will. Till then, IDGAF.

We are in that situation.

I don't see how your suggestion helps us at all.

Confirms a town the day before lylo.
Takes the lynch options for a town player from 3/5 to 3/4.
Increases chance of town win by chaining Wolf to obligatory efforts in case town whiffs lynch today (Wolf would have a 2/3 shot to save the game for town on a mislynch)

The negatives are...possible, but I think minor. What are your issues with the plan?

I grok but you're misconstruing my position.

Clarify it?

That's true, but it's also true that one of those slots didn't do anthing up until day 4

Irrelevant - also, yes, he did.

Here's the start of his push on Tier (the n2 kill) day 2, So I don't see the wolf railroading someone only to kill them, it wasn't as if Tier had Justin in a precarious position at the end of the day either.

I can see the logic there, my counter might be that Justin Wolf legit thought that Tier was Mafia, but I see the logic.

It's not a wolf specific read but a generic scum-read on her slot. I had a scum read on her predecessor

...okay, so, since I asked for the scm read on her, and the answer is "it was on her predecessor" I guess now I'm obligated, since you chose not to volunteer the info, to ask 'whats the scum case on the predecessor?' Thanks for allowing me to play 20 questions. You can answer this one now.

I assume that if the seer had a guilty or significant enough innocents at his point they'd have claimed of their own accord.

Agreed, but there are other benefits - do you think the Seer shouldn't claim?

I don't have any "cleared" town reads, if by cleared you mean confirmed, and at least one of those I thought were town (Kat/Majiffy/NM) must now be scum, so I'm reconsidering all of them. I'll dig out my original reasons for you when I've caught up.

The "PoE" on me by most people appears to not be PoE at all...because almost no one actually has solid town reads.

Showcase the Finglove backtrack?

It's in post 144. And see my note on it earlier in this post.

I looked at that, and while I'll agree it was sloppy play, I don't understand how it makes sense.
The only claim scum would be interested in would be a claim of Seer.

Mafia might care about that, but only as a Wolf hunting tool.
Wolves would care about it.

Functionally, by what happened, Mneumonic proved he wasn't a wolf, because he backed off of his ability to discover a Seer/push a mislynch.
He *might* be a a Mafia goon...except the lynch was *on* a Mafia Goon, so he had no reason to seek a claim in the first place, and no town credit to get from backing off of it.

If I squint really hard I can see your case, and it only works if you think I'm Mafia. Mostly I see evidence that I'm town. Now that I'm confirmed "not-Wolf" we should probably point out that we need to lynch a Wolf today for optimal town win.

That was from memory. I didn't check back to be certain.

I'll also point out that at a stage where Mafia's optimal goal is to not bus - Reinoe, Majiffy, Not_Mafia, and Lia are all okay with my lynch. That means I'm confirmed not Wolf and also confirmed not Mafia *except* with Justin.

The wagon on me can go away now.

I know you didn't ask me specifically, but it seems to me that your seer plan is flawed.

Oh noes!!!1!

So in short, revealing the seer eliminates the best possible town swing and empowers the werewolf, unless the were wolf is lynched today. In exchange it increases by perhaps as small as a 1 in 6 chance town's likelihood of catching scum.

I don't think you understand the best possible town swing.

The best town swing is to lynch the Wolf today.
Seer reveal focuses town to a 1/4 chance to nail Wolf.
Seer reveal focuses Mafia to a 1/3 chance.

The only thing better than a Seer reveal at this stage is a Mafia reveal, and then we sheep Mafia.

[Thor665]

He excluded any possibilities of being part of future townblocs and therefore a potentially game-losing liability to set up so early.

But for that to matter we'd need to know his honest take on town blocs. Do you? I know I went through a fairly lengthy period where I opposed town blocs as being anti-town. That was my honest belief, and I'd oppose them regardless of alignment. Even at this stage my opinion of town blocs is pretty...'meh'. I just try to think of them as forming a town reads list and treat them that way - because it's all they really are. Do you know that he normally likes/loves/et al town blocs? Because it's not like he went all that far out in opposing it, I read his opposition as reasonable and would call it a mild opinion, rather than a strong one.

No, we're not. We can still hit mafia and win.

Only if we hit the wolf tomorrow in lylo. We need to hit the wolf within two lynches to win, otherwise we lose. We can hit mafia via a lynch or a kill, but we can only hit the wolf via a lynch.

I don't see any of your positives really helping us. Unless the seer is being lynched, seer claiming doesn't put us in any different scenario; either way,

seer isn't being lynched today.

Unnecessary outting and really minimal positives vs the drawbacks of outting our potentially auto-winning PR.

You don't see a danger of seer cross claiming tomorrow? Because that is optimal wolf strategy at that stage.

You keep defining

my

Scum as

your

Mafia.

No, I keep trying to make you define your scum. I point out the danger of you lynching a scum who is mafia as opposed to wolf. That is not a misconception on my part - it is what you're saying, and if it's not you really need to clarify your stance some more.

Explain your confirmations. Slowly and with extreme prejudice.

I did in the post you quoted. Which ones do you not understand? If "all of it" what part am I losing you at? If "the beginning" then my question to you would start at "why would wolf Mnemonic back off on forcing a claim and mislynch on a Mafia/Town player?" Answer that and I'll walk you through the rest. Or clarify the point I'm losing you that isn't the begining and I'll start there.

Right on both scores. But if we miss the wolf, and if we hit mafia, we almost certainly lose the seer tonight. We lose what the seer might be able to report, in an ever dwindling pool of suspects.

Which is only more reason for a claim now, last I checked, if you think the Seer has actual info. Also, if the Seer has no info besides the investigation tonight, then the investigation tonight is relatively 'meh' regardless with a Wolf kill happening, and I don't see the problem in trading Seer for Mafia at this stage, and if Mafia wants to avoid that then they should have one of their members claim first, since that would actually help their wincon at this stage.

Would you like to claim Mafia?
I'll sheep you on your wolf suspect.

[Thor665]

I don't see how that's applicable; even if I had a negative opinion about something, if outting that opinion publicly would be anti-wincon, obviously I wouldn't do it.

Yes, but it only matters if he thinks it would be anti-wincon. That's the point.

Even if we hit wolf today we still have to hit both mafia subsequently properly. So your argument fails.

Except we're allowed to hit mafia by a wolf kill or as a 3rd lynch. We cannot do either of those with the wolf, which is my argument.

I see that as a massive benefit. CCs are fucking easy as Smurf to sort.

Okay then.

There is no danger hitting mafia today. The danger in hitting BOTH mafia TODAY

AND

TOMORROW.

Yes. I agree with this. Hence - why we should figure out who the wolf is.

this is some distraction from your wagon.

My wagon is already dead, in case you didn't notice. I killed it a few pages back.

So be a dear and start at the beginning, with nice short concise bullet points that I know you know is pro-town and able for you to do.

If "the beginning" then my question to you would start at "why would wolf Mnemonic back off on forcing a claim and mislynch on a Mafia/Town player?" Answer that and I'll walk you through the rest.

[Thor665]

So you want to hit the wolf today instead of mafia, taking away our potential of getting an autowin in favor of having to lynch at 3 proper lylos back to back

Which is somehow vastly inferior to your plan of lylos that also counts on a scum player to solo help town?

I think trying to nitpick over what they're going to flip is moot at best and a waste of time and energy at worst.

And I think that just shows how bad your PoE is - if you have PoEd me as scum, but can't say what type of scum I am.

And no other alternatives have popped up.

No, actually I could get Reino lynched right now if I was so inclined, but I'm actually not that confident on his wolf status anymore.

How about you give me a logical proof that concludes with "Thor is confirmed town". Because that's what you're positing. Stop beating around the bush and deliver.

As I have said - answer my question and I'll do so. If you can't come up with an answer then I think that at least proves I'm not a wolf...do you agree with that? If you don't, why not? What was my other wolfy goal? (hint: showing I had no wolf motivation is part of proving I'm confirmed town...derp)

I think it's actually more likely he's wolf. Note his call for seer to out, asking for Mafia to claim so he can sheep, etc.

You are so bad at this right now. If you are town you really need to tone down the pride and pay attention to stuff. If you are scum...well, you should probably fake doing so.

[Thor665]

Actually, y'know, i'm honestly sick and tired of dealing with idiot Majiffy already, and I don't much like the rest of you so;

Claim: Seer

Now all of you SHUT UP AND JUST ANSWER MY QUESTIONS.

This means you Majiffy.

[Thor665]

This is sub-optimal play from me.
I don't care anymore.

[Thor665]

Yeah, any CCs" Where oh where are the CCs?

And just skimming over that post it pains me. Really? You're lynching me, and demanding I answer questions, while proudly proclaiming that you're not reading things I'm typing?

You are a ponce.

[Thor665]

VOTE: Justin Playfair

You are even more of a ponce.

[Thor665]

"I'mma gonna post a lot of e-peen proclamations...but then just quietly vote some other guy, because clearly even though my shoddy PoE has just been PROVEN as shoddy...th erest is still good and I don't need to re-analyze at all, sheep me, I'm Majiffy!"

My slot had lurky play. You translated that as a scum tell. I'll agree he played poorly, I don't excuse you from the poor play once this slot became anything but lurky, nor for how you chose to field questions.

You remain a ponce.

[Thor665]

"There is now a confirmed town player, I better not answer or respond to their questions or thoughts, this is brilliant play!"

What scum alignment do you think Justin is?

[Thor665]

"Someone is setting up that they are not the Seer, openly, while trying to get Mafia to out...they must be the WOLF and not the seer! Brilliant and only possible conclusion!"

Is there a scum case on him outside your now already proven flawed PoE? I'm hoping so.

[Thor665]

Okay, so what are Mnem's results first of all?

If I wanted to share them, I would have.

do you have access to previous results?

Yes, as with all replacement situations I've ever seen I was given all the information by the mod that the mod gave to the previous holder(s). I have all of Mnemonic's investigation results.

You played poorly as well. I've enumerated this many times since we began our back-and-forth.

Other than you disagreeing with me about the proper play today (and it *is* to tag the wolf) and you declaring that I was bogging down the thread by not cooperating with my own lynch...no, you haven't.

Same answer I've been giving you: Irrelevant. Scum.

Do you think he makes sense as a scum buddy with any of the flipped scum or any of the unflipped 3 scum suspects you have...and who is the new third one now that it isn't me? Ponce.

Pretty Smurf play trying to get someone to CC you like that. Especially since your "plan" for why Seer-outting was optimal was poor.

My play was actually to convince the wolf that I wasn't the Seer, and also to maybe get a Mafia to claim. I then apparently did it in a way to...look like confirmed wolf to you...because...?

So what is your case on Justin? I even agree that he might be scum, so talk to me ponce boy. Use your words.

[Thor665]

Whatever you say, Norse God.

In other words 'yes'. Got it.

Haven't bothered looking for associatives.

Not even from the flipped scum?

If you go uncc'ed, I'm seeing Reinoe/Justin/Lia. But I really doubt you're going uncc'ed because (in child-like voice) yousa scummy mc scummah!

Then why did you unvote me?

Your play made more sense as wolf than scum.

SV's slot. Take a browse through SV's ISO, also note the vote on Finglove. The whole thing reeks of scum.

Okay...

[Thor665]

I like SV's iso as a scum iso.

Is Justin unreadable to you?

[Thor665]

You didn't find his vote on me to try to reinvigorate the wagon interesting?

[Thor665]

Of course you apparently thought I was looking like busted Wolf too, so maybe you wouldn't. Never mind.

[Thor665]

Thor, if it makes any difference I thought you were caught mafia, not caught wolf. Mnemonic's weird voting was around the Finglove lynch and Finglove flipped mafia. You were under suspicion of being mafia and then as part of your plan you sweep out this strange mafia come forward and I will sheep you bit. It seemed like you wanted town to think you could only be the wolf, which would undercut the suspicion that was on you.

If you are town you need to deeply examine how you spot scumtells.

@Majiffy - I asked before, I'll ask again (and call you a ponce again, because what the frell) since your PoE has changed - what happened to bounce Lia into scum territory where before she was PoE worthy? This is why your PoE is so worrisome, you're not willing to discuss it. I am actually at the point where I find your play so suspect I'm wanting to go back and look at the two lynches and declare one of them a bus from you, that's where I'm mentally at with how you're playing. Stop it.

if we don't lynch wolf today you're dead tonight.

This is not true, if we derp and lynch town than the wolf can't afford to shoot me and has to try to shoot mafia to save himself and derp town. According to Majiffy this is an optimal and wonderful pro-town situation, don't'cha'know.

Who do you think the wolf is and why?

[Thor665]

Useful? You won't even elaborate on the reasons for your town reads

for a player you town read.

Meh.
Neither looks like a bus.

I did find this quote pretty comical considering your play today though.

[Thor665]

@Justin
@Lia
@Reinoe

Greetings,

Currently the three of you are my scumspect pool. I think neither Reinoe nor Justin make much sense as Wolves, that said I think Reinoe and Justin do not make much sense as partners (this will blow Majiffy's mind because I'm using alignments to scumhunt - it's feth-amazing and must be poor play on my part). SO I'm willing to accept that I could be wrong on one of you and N_M is, in fact, scum of some stripe.

I would love to see each of you present any reasoning you can to show that you are either not wolf or not mafia (Lia...showing anything to suggest you are not wolf would be a *very* good thing to do at this stage)
I would also like to see each of you offer up your best thoughts on who wolf is.
If any of you would like to claim Mafia (a not bad strategy at this stage, and I can show you a Jungle republic game where I did it for an eventual Mafia win) I will put immense extra strength onto your thoughts.

@Majiffy - when you stop being drunk with trying to prove the size of your e-peen let me know, I'd like to discuss scumspects and *teams* with you. Tell me when you're ready for that immense anti-town action.

[Thor665]

But write an essay on why I'm not the scum you're looking for? Sorry. Think I'll leave that for the scum.

I'll choose to take that as "there is no evidence to suggest I'm not scum".

As far as who the three scum are my money would be on Majiffy, Not_Mafia, and Reinoe. And I still like Majiffy best for the werewolf, both for the reasons in my earlier post and because of Not_Mafia's behavior when he dropped his vote on Lia and moved Katarina/Reinoe from his towniest town ever slot to his mafia with me slot.

How do you take Majiffy as a bus on Ninja? Because that was a pretty intense bus.

I could potentially accept Not_Mafia/Reinoe as a mafia pair, certainly their interactions with each other work with that. Do you think their interactions with Finglove work with them as a mafia team?

[Thor665]

@Majiffy - your e-peen is so impressive, it boggles my mind to even try to see it all at once. Your PoE included me...yes, I do not understand your PoE. Shock.

@Justin - how does Not_Mafia play into your Mafia team of Reinoe/Lia/Finglove. You include him as part of the see-saw that bugged you but do not consider him Mafia, so I'm not sure what I'm supposed to take away from that.

[Thor665]

I think Enomis was killed exactly because the wolves found his hop awkward.

[Thor665]

Both. I could easily see thinking he was a Mafia buddy and going for the kill for that reason.

It's mildly sad to me that majiffy didn't consider that at all...though his Mnemonic/Ninja theory did tag a wolf regardless, albeit also tunneling him on town at the same time...and that he got one wolf out of it and then presumed the second one too is sloppy as well, but, meh. But, yes, Enomis' interactions with Finglove could easily be taken as Mafia/Mafia at the time methinks.


Is your working theory with N_M and Reinow that they decided to bus, wanted to not bus, tried to coordinate not bussing, and then...just didn't? I'm still not following the issue with the see-saw thing.

[Thor665]

But I can offer some evidence that I'm not mafia because I called the mneumonic slot mafia and I pushed for that lynch as hard as I could muster. But that wagon wasn't moving even though you were at L-1. If I had a chance to hammer the slot I definitely would have without hesitation.

All I can say is that I openly claimed vanilla townie because I know that wolf cannot afford to hit townie tonight.

Both of these work really well as a Mafia plan.

Majiffy is mafia goon. He bussed Finglove because he was the weakest on the team but I wouldn't be surprised if that was actually planned ahead of time so that Majiffy could get major townie points at the expense of a newb. They lynch wasn't planned but the bussing certainly was. It's something special to actually LEAD A WAGON on scum afterall. Looking at that wagon, that wagon is derp. I wholeheartedly confess I would not have been able to put myself on that wagon. His lynch of the werewolf was simply luck but it gave him more townie cred. Afterwards Majiffy's reads have been spectacularly inaccurate but he's been coasting on his townie cred since. Majiffy's bravado is not justified so his not answering questions looks scummy instead of cheeky. Majiffy knew that Thor was not goon so it didn't matter to him if that slot got killed.

This might justify his repeated choice to set himself up as not caring about alignment and getting excited when he thought I was the Wolf, I'm just not sure I buy it as overall Mafia play outside of that.

Thor drop some mjolnir.

Are you totally a ponce? Hammer should, hopefully, go to a Mafia player. Especially if your working theory is that you and N_M are town. If you are right, on all things, than Justin should manage to worm his way onto that lynch to help his wincon.

If he doesn't, than that suggests you are wrong about stuff, and we should re-examine.

[Thor665]

And yes, attention Mafia players - I am not making this easy and helping with the lynch, so you guys better help along with getting a lynch on Wolf.

Thanks!

[Thor665]

@Majiffy - see? You're wrong about something. Well... ...something *else*.

Lia (3) :: Not_Mafia, Majiffy, reinoe (L-1)
reinoe (1) :: Lia, Justin Playfair (L-2)

I'm still not going to hammer jack, and Justin is as derpy as Majiffy if he thinks I will.

So, I'm mildly leaning Lia/Justin now. I think that's probably the Mafia.

@Lia
@Justin

Hey, if you guys aren't the Mafia, and *one* of you is Mafia, this would be an EXCELLENT time to claim Mafia and help steer this lynch somewhat. We really do want to nail the Wolf, and if you claim Mafia you could leave everyone thinking that town fool is Mafia with you and maybe win in the final lylo. But you really do want us to nail the wolf now - the wolf, knowing I'm the seer, is going to have a *pretty darn accurate* shot tonight to shoot Mafia, and you really don't want that adventure going on.

So, seriously, would one of you like to claim and verify your desire to lynch the wolf with your current vote?

[Thor665]

Also, if any Mafia is dumb enough to be bussing right now, they need to get their head examined.

[Thor665]

It works out the same for the conclusion. You do not want to lynch Lia - that suggests either you are town or Mafia.
With two Mafia, a wolf, and myself alive the only way I'm wrong on one of you being Mafia is if, magically, Majiffy and Not_Mafia are both scum of some stripe.
I do not believe that to be the case.

Therefore, one of you is likely Mafia.

I take it you're choosing not to claim Mafia to get me to sheep you onto Majiffy?
Very well then.
Let's see if Lia is a better player for your Mafia team than you are.

[Thor665]

I will agree you are confirmed 'not Wolf' with that play, if it makes you feel any better.

[Thor665]

So, like, as far as today goes, I would not want to lynch Justin.
But you still stand a decent chance to b Mafia for a lynch tomorrow, or for a Wolf shot tonight.

[Thor665]

That's odd. Given the way you've behaved since entering I just assumed you already had an investigative flip on me.

Why would you assume that?

[Thor665]

So why would it be odd to have me make the comment that I don't think you're a wolf?

[Thor665]

You had just done what I was commenting about.

[Thor665]

@Mod - pre-emptive prod request on Lia. COnsidering he current votes and gamestate we're functionally just wasting time until she shows up...frankly, wouldn't mind one on Reinoe either, if you're feeling generous, as he's exactly the other one we're waiting on, and both are currently at 24+ hours at this stage, which means with the time left in the day they could potentially via your rules suck us into deadline with only one post each, which is frustrating)

@Justin - I'll go ahead and toss out a 'hey, sure, respond to N_M's 'not wolf' case on Majiffy.

@Majiffy - your opinion on Justin not being a wolf - go!

@Lia - if you are Mafia this is an optimal time to claim that, I'm not going to lynch you if you're Mafia, and anyone who isn't a Wolf would be playing bad if they kept voting you after a Mafia claim.

@Reinoe - if Lia claims Mafia who would you vote?

@N_M - same question as Majiffy, why the hell not?

[Thor665]

Yeah, a wolf basically wouldn't care, and a Mafia wouldn't really care either as long as the wagon wasn't on his partner and he mildly thought there was a wolf chance...since he's not exactly shaking down the walls with his alternate wolf suspect of you it really reads to me as he's probably Mafia or Town.

The thing is, if you buy that, do you still think Lia is a good lynch and why?

[Thor665]

@Reinoe - The thread is not a wifom storm. I'll go ahead and encourage you to also respond to Lia.

@Lia - what's your read on Justin then, since he refused to hammer you?

[Thor665]

Theoretically true if everything in your proof is correct - being able to assign alignments to them so you understand what you're choosing and what theoretical relationships need to exist though makes for a better move overall.

@Justin - an additional theoretical. You think Majiffy is the wolf. You think that Lia is town. That means both Mafia (N_M and Reinoe) are voting for Lia. Why do you think they're making such a poor move and if one of them claimed would you sheep them onto Lia?

[Thor665]

@Lia - why would Justin Werewolf hold off on lynching you to chase Majiffy? I know he, as Mafia, would only hold off on you because either you're his partner or he's playing really poorly - and so you can't really back either of those, natch. But I'm not sure why Wolf him would hold off of finding you worthy of lynch, Wolf prefers a Mafia lynch, natch, but with my claim and a kill, he actually is in a decent position to nail whomever, so I don't really see why a Wolf wouldn't want to hammer you. Instead he defends you. Want to walk me through this?

@Reinoe - Okay, so what's your less moonlogic case? I presume you agree with me that Justin isn't the Wolf. I am not the Wolf. You will claim to not be the Wolf. That leaves you Lia, N_M, Majiffy (with possibility of Justin = Mafia with Lia) I'll also admit that I don't think N_M nor you make a lot of sense as the wolf. That leaves Majiffy as obnoxious wolf busser, or Lia as Wolf. My current boggle is if Lia is the Wolf, it means Justin is town, and if Justin is town than my desire for Majiffy and N_M to both be town is wrong.

@Mafia - could still really do with a Mafia claim. I don't think I like town's odds shooting in the dark here.

[Thor665]

Honestly, Mafia, with Justin a likely 'not wolf' and me - your accuracy should be *reallly* good at spotting the wolf. Unless Justin is yours.

So, really, Justin, if Mafia, should claim, or some other Mafia should claim, because then we can bag wolf pretty easy, and then it's just down to the non-Justin/non-claimed-Mafia to sort the business in a lylo like a man. But, seriously, no one wants that little stinky wolf to win, he's stinky and has been trying to kill us all, and I've never allowed a wolf to win a Jungle Republic I was in yet, and I know we don't want to start now.

Frankly, if Justin *is* Mafia, the other partner might want to claim instead of him, it would be super tricky and would actually make Justin look more likely town and potentially gak with us in lylo trying to sort him.

I'm literally handing you brilliant play here.

[Thor665]

*Note "allowed" - I got ThorTown lynched as wolf last time we played this setup, so he had no say in my eventual win.

This matters to what I'm doing...how?

Because I'm almost agreeing with Reinoe here.
And that's scary.

[Thor665]

All I can suggest is that he thinks I'm town and wants to lynch mafia today so that he is free to kill town you tonight. Although his assumption that you had already checked him doesn't fit into that (unless he's faking it but I don't get that feeling). I'm more inclined to think he's mafia out of the two, doesn't think I'm the wolf, and wants to lynch the wolf rather than town. Either that, or he's town and NM is the third scum.

Why do you need to create strange situations to justify what's going on instead of thinking maybe you are wrong (or lying) about some of your proofs?

[Thor665]

I still think the best situation is for Mafia to claim and lead a lynch.

That would give us a 1/3 chance to hit the wolf.
If we failed then Wolf would *have* to kill claimed Mafia to even have a chance (or hand Mafia the win by killing anyone else).
I would investigate another suspect, and at that point, with Justin + claimed Mafia + myself + at least one clear from me we would have assured dead wolf situation tomorrow.
Then it's lylo, trying to figure a 50/50 flip between a town and a mafia.

So, that is either a town win or a Mafia win, favoring Mafia of the two.
Unlike Majiffy, i do not think town has been doing well this game, and fully understand our narrow chances of winning, so I'm quite willing to back a plan like this, because frankly town needs Mafia to even be in this, and Mafia deserves a win more than Wolf because Wolf has been playing too poorly to do anything about the Mafia.

C'mon, Mafia, this really is your best chance, because the Wolf is a bigger threat to you right now than the town by a long shot, and you need me alive to help you get the Wolf tomorrow if you can't get him now. Because otherwise your only plan is 'hope to lynch Wolf/Town' today and 'hope Wolf kills town tonight if he isn't lynched'

Statistically my plan is much superior for your win chances, even if it does tend to assure the death of one of you.

[Thor665]

First things first. Thor, have you ever played this set-up in a situation where at this point in the game there was a confirmed town? If not please think about how that might make mafia's calculus different from yours, especially if one of them felt he was fairly outed as scummy and that the other was in a far stronger position.

That just increases the functionality of the scummy one claiming and leading a lynch. In...like every way.
Mafia don't care that I'm confirmed town, they care that I'm confirmed not wolf. If Mafia is sweating town at this point than Mafia is dumb.

You might also think about Reinoe's Moon logic theory and consider the implications of his presenting one of those.

Like what? I'm pretty dense, so you should just state what you're saying and not just hint things to me.

And if you seriously think I'm wolf, then you're seriously retarded.

Sorry, it's a bad habit of mine to conflate 'anti-town' with 'scum'. And you seem to really not want to help town at this particular junction, you're even voting for someone you have called Mafia at this stage. It's wonky.

Huh? You asked me to walk you through my thoughts on Justin so that's what I did. I think I argued myself out of thinking he was either wolf or mafia in the end. What situations did you think I was creating?

Exactly the one you did - and, yes, I asked for your thoughts and then reacted to them, I'm not sure what is unexpected in that exchange.

Your current vote is less than useless at this stage, why are you still voting Reinoe?

Still waiting for replies from Justin, reinoe an NM.

Restate the questions then, and be proactive. You have been saying this for a while and getting nothing, and I'm pretty sure it's just a ploy to waste time, and I'm no longer amused by it.

We are down to basically 24 hours to figure a lynch.
Mafia is playing poorly.
Wolf is playing well.
Town is playing meh.

So, pretty much, at this stage we're going for a wolf win.
Huzzah.

[Thor665]

@Justin - here's where your basic issue breaks down, and I'll openly admit I stopped reading at the point you were like 'd'awww, Mafia versus town with a confirmed town and down one man'

That situation? It's a 50% Mafia win rate.

Compare with a *not* Wolf lynch.
First off, with a Mafia lynch, Wolf kills me, town has a 50% chance to lynch scum, Mafia needs town to pick Wolf or Wolf will win, Wolf needs any lynch other than him to win, Town needs to get Wolf, Mafia can no longer afford to claim to help get Wolf. That makes that day a 50% Mafia loss *presuming town picks right!* So, that is already worse odds.
If we lynch town today than wolf shoots with me as confirmed town, and has a 2/3 chance of hitting Mafia...and if he does then it's the situation above. And this is Mafia's third best go...which is a 33% win chance *otherwise it is significantly worse.

Mafia's MAGICAL WONDERLAND DREAM SITUATION WHICH YOU THINK THEY ARE GOING FOR is to get a Wolf lynch today...with the confirmed town on record that he won't help get any lynch.
On the off chance they manage this than they have a situation where tomorrow they face a...wait for it...50/50 chance for town to lynch correctly, and then have a second 50/50 shot.

So, basically, Mafia, if they are doing what you seem to think they are doing, are risking a 33% win chance because they're scared to deal with a 50% win chance in the hope of getting a 66% win chance.
The risk of the 33% should outweigh the gain of the 66% quite equally, and the 50% is actually pretty amazingly good right there.
By being confirmed town I'm actually helping their wincon right now - but apparently they're too dim to see it and grab for the gold.

Even look at the current votes;

Lia (2) :: Not_Mafia, Majiffy (L-2)
Majiffy (2) :: Justin Playfair, reinoe (L-2)
reinoe (1) :: Lia (L-3)

The only way this vote setup makes sense is if both town are disagreeing with both Mafia and Lia is the wolf.
Because if that's *not* what is going on, than Mafia is playing even worse than I thought.
It's also a pretty screaming example of why Mafia needs to get town on their side asap - because clearly they are at a loss for finding the wolf *or* in convincing town to vote the wolf, and failure to lynch the wolf now...that takes them to their 33% situation. So, at that point, my offer of a 50% situation - is pretty much pure win for the Mafia.

Right now?
I'm Mafia MVP at this point of the game.

I'm just praying they figure it out.
Because Wolf is doing a brilliant job right now.

[Thor665]

Right now?
I'm Mafia MVP at this point of the game.

This should be exploited out of context.

But it remains true - I am the Mafia MVP right now, because I'm trying to save their wincon.

Hellooooo! Earth to Mafia! A wolf is going to eat you!

[Thor665]

Lia (1) :: Not_Mafia, (L-1)
Majiffy (2) :: Justin Playfair, reinoe (L-2)
reinoe (2) :: Lia, Majiffy (L-2)

So now we're here.

Mafia is still playing poorly because, once again, unless both Mafia are voting the same person (and N_M is the wolf...and no one's voting him) than this is not a good VC for the Mafia team to see.
I suppose it's a decent one to see if N_M and Majiffy are the Mafia and Reinoe is the Wolf - that would make it a decent vote count as long as they figured N_M would sheep. But I'll admit evidence doesn't particularly support a Reinoe=wolf situation.

[Thor665]

I suppose the above VC could have N_M as town as long as wolf was voting with town. So a Majiffy or Reinoe Wolf vs. Justin/Reinoe Mafia or Lia/Majiffy Mafia would be at least not embarrassing for Mafia - though if I were them I'd note that it was a lot of gamble on where town N_M would flop.

[Thor665]

Mafia seems really excited to roll the dice on a 66% - which wwill likely be a 33% because they're too derp to take an assured 50% for...some reason.

[Thor665]

I guess math tells them a risky 13% gain is worth pursuing at the risk of a likely 17% loss.
Oh, math, why don't they pay attention to what you're telling them?

[Thor665]

Oh, and just to re-state. I'm not voting without a claimed Mafia to sheep.

So Mafia needs to sell a town player, or get the Wolf to back their play...good luck with your odds on a safe lynch with that strategy, Mafia. Your play is *brilliant*.

Please claim, I'm trying to help you.

[Thor665]

It's a good strategy for both Town and the Mafia. So I understand your frustration if you're the Wolf.

[Thor665]

Worst case for town at this point is that we no lynch. And that doesn't actually affect town's win percentages.
The other worst case is town lynch and Wolf kills town for a Mafia win...but there's not much we can do about that, as it's a risk we take in going for our best win chance also - plus, the odds of Wolf hitting town on his shot are pretty minimal.

[Thor665]

It's a good strategy for both Town and the Mafia. So I understand your frustration if you're the Wolf.

I was ing your flat refusal to vote which is incredibly dumb.

It really isn't, unless your argument is still that any scum lynch is as good to town as any other...and even then I'm not sure how I'm particularly affecting that chance regardless.

[Thor665]

So with the current Reinoe wagon. N_M and Majiffy are pretty obv. not Mafia with Lia. SO they Might be Mafia together, and the only way that wagon is a good one is if Lia is town.
So, pretty much Majiffy has to be thinking Reinoe is not Wolf...unless he's given up on his Lia/Justin theory.

@Not_Mafia - you were arguing with me earlier that Reinoe wasn't a likely wolf, what changed?

[Thor665]

Vote: Majiffy

[Thor665]

@N_M - barring a Mafia counterclaim on Reinoe, I'm just going to go with 'Reinoe is Mafia' y'know?

[Thor665]

Also, town is welcome.

[Thor665]

We've had both you and Justin post since then - so if he's Wolf than Mafia is Majiffy/Lia - in which case we're still doing okay.

So where's the fire, specifically?

[Thor665]

I mean, if we lynch Majiffy, and Majiffy flips Mafia, well, I'll die tonight, then lynch Reinoe tomorrow and then probably Lia on the third day - and huzzah, right?

[Thor665]

This is why town doesn't fakeclaim scum.

This is also why town doesn't lynch the person that hit two scum back to back from different factions at the start of the game.

This is also why Thor is a dummy mc dummyhead.

Agreed.

Well...yes, but it feeds into #1 - I'll admit it never occurred to me that town would do that. And, frankly, even if it had I would have had to have gone with it because it still would have been a decent play. I'm mildly surprised Mafia didn't counterclaim him, as they should have recognized him as the Wolf and were basically waving their hands at him if that was the case, but it worked out for Mafia anyway, so no worries there I suppose.

I may indeed be a dummy, you were a lazy mclazyface with your cases though

[Thor665]

Also, I will agree Mnemonic did not do the town any favors. I consider this at least 50% his loss and 50% mine.

[Thor665]

I may indeed be a dummy, you were a lazy mclazyface with your cases though

Pfft, I lynched two scum by D2, I had laurels to rest on. The rest of ya'll shoulda happily picked up my slack!

Your "slack" was hard pushing me and refusing to talk...and then when I became confirmed it was basically refusing to talk.

[Thor665]

Exactly

[Thor665]

You are so bad at this right now. If you are town you really need to tone down the pride and pay attention to stuff. If you are scum...well, you should probably fake doing so.

Oh Thor, why do you do all this anti-town attacking of people - clearly it is your scum play. I, Reinoe, know this!

[Thor665]

Eek - my bad!