Open 554 - omg, like, jungle republic!! + game over~~

[Lia]

Hi there!

[Lia]

I'm all caught up now and can't see any reason not to lynch NT, but I'd really like to hear more from mnemonic first because he's the only one I haven't been able to get an idea about apart from not liking the way he backtracked on Finglove. While waiting for that I'm going to vote Wolfy as he's my top suspicion.

First impressions give me Kat, NM and Majiffy as town, NT, Wolfy, TS, S & M, and possibly Justin as scum. I'll go into more detail in future posts.

Vote: Wolfy

[Lia]

I can sort of understand all your reads except the Justin one. Explain that one first please.

That was a gut read and was easily the weakest of my scumreads. I was uneasy with the way he was trying to distance himself from a NT lynch, saying it wouldn't give us much information. There is one other thing but I'm going to keep that under my hat for now.

You can't see any reason not to lynch NT yet you vote me... so you clearly do have a reason not to vote NT.
I'm looking forward to the detailed explanation on why you want NT lynched but you're voting me.

The reason I chose to vote you rather than NT was in my post. In fact you went on to quote part of it.

Are you thinking Tier and Justin are on different scum teams given the current conflict between them and Justin's vote on Tier?
Where does S&M fit in - is he aligned with Tier or Justin?

I haven't had time to get my head round the recent exchanges yet, or to guess at which teams my scumreads are on.

Fine. I'll hammer him after Tier decides that explaining himself would be a good idea.

I'd rather you waited till we've heard from mnemonic, and I've got the rest of my thoughts out. I didn't get the time to do it today.

[Lia]

Are you thinking Tier and Justin are on different scum teams given the current conflict between them and Justin's vote on Tier?
Where does S&M fit in - is he aligned with Tier or Justin?

I haven't had time to get my head round the recent exchanges yet, or to guess at which teams my scumreads are on.

I've read through the Tier and Justin thing now and I don't think either of them have a strong case there. It could be a town/town arguement but I'm inclined to think at least one, most probably Tier, is scum, if not both. There's even a possibility that they're scum partners doing a bit of distancing but I think that's less likely. Justin does have a point about Tier's reads but I'll wait until Tier gives the explanation promised in 439 to see if it's worth following up. As for S & M I'm not ruling them out being on either team yet.

[Lia]

Vote: Wolfy

Also looking at S & M, mnemonic and possibly Justin.

[Lia]

I like to get my vote down. looking scum to me. Pushing on town Tier, refusing to vote scum NT and now pushing on town me.

You are more concerned with looking town here than with being objective. Tell me how Justin could have known that Tier was town or could know your alignment?

Jiffy is probably town who is massively over confident (and many people will sheep confidence even when there is no substance - especially Lia who is probably town).

No. Not sheeping. My vote is based on

your

posts, not his.


Justin's post 466 bothered me a bit. He seemed to be over justifying his vote on Wolfy who according to his last read list would have now been his third highest suspect. If this wasn't multiball that might have made me reconsider my own vote but as it is it doesn't. It just tells me they're probably not partners.

[Lia]

Same here. But doing a reread while I'm waiting.

[Lia]

As long as it doesn't come as regularly as

that

.

[Lia]

Hi Thor!

My main reason for suspecting mnemonic, apart from POE, was the way he backtracked on Finglove. And I see my other remaining suspect, Justin, is now defending him against that. Which makes me think you two may be the mafia and one of my town reads is the remaining wolf.

Also, could someone give me a quick rundown on the NK speculation on the three dead players - that would also be helpful at this stage.

I don't think there has been any speculation on them yet, apart from Majiffy's comment about not being killed.

[Lia]

Sorry I haven't been able to get to this over the weekend. I should be able to catch up tomorrow.

[Lia]

@ reinoe:

When you wrote 358 and 539 were you just using the vote counts, or had you read the thread before that?

@ Justin:

540 I get your first point about Majiffy but I'm not sure about the second. I think that if he was going to bus he would've gone all the way from the start.

As far as mnemonic goes I was initially very suspicious of his intent to hammer/no he'd never hammer on Finglove, but looking at it now what I can't quite make work is how it adds up to scum specific play as opposed to bad null play. It his intent to hammer post was meant as some kind of phantom bussing of his scumbuddy his immediate retraction under the mildest pressure draws more attention to him (and the exchange) than doing nothing at all. If retracting his intent to hammer was meant to derail the wagon why didn't he follow it up with any sort of...anything that might have led town in a different direction?

I don't see that as phantom bussing. More like he saw the wagon form, thought he needed to bus, and then realised there might be a chance for the wagon to fizzle out as it was still quite early. He left his vote on Wolfy despite saying it should probably be gotten rid of, leaving a foundation for another wagon while not taking responsibility for it, and avoiding being seen to push a mislynch on someone else.

Yes, it is easy to lynch the low content, lurker slot. But it's not a great way to hunt scum.

But is anyone doing this? This strikes me as a strawman.

As for your point about Katarina/Reinoe; that was one of my reasons for my original town read on her.

4)You're saying there's a slim chance that Thor and I are a scum team? Let me dissuade you of all thoughts on that. Thor needs to be lynched today.

You say "Let me dissuade you", yet you don't then say anything to dissuade us.

Please explain this PoE? I'd like to see your cleared town reads mostly, and reasoning therefor.

I don't have any "cleared" town reads, if by cleared you mean confirmed, and at least one of those I thought were town (Kat/Majiffy/NM) must now be scum, so I'm reconsidering all of them. I'll dig out my original reasons for you when I've caught up.

Showcase the Finglove backtrack?

It's in post 144. And see my note on it earlier in this post.

I'm actually concerned that Majiffy, who is expressing concern about being alive, *hasn't* done this yet...are you sure he hasn't? And if not, why is he bewildered that he is alive but not doing NK analysis? That makes no sense.

That was from memory. I didn't check back to be certain.

[Lia]

I'm finally caught up now and I'm looking at Reinoe and Justin as scum. As Thor hasn't been cc'd the last one must be between NM and Majiffy, but I need to recheck the previous Days for that. I think too much dust is being thrown around toDay to get a good reading there. My gut says NM is town but I'm not relying on that.

I'm most sure about Reinoe, particularly for 538 and 539 where his vote and suspicions were based on stuff taken out of context. The main reason for my original town read on Kat went out of the window when Thor claimed seer because I thought Kat had breadcrumbed seer in 220.

@LIA, what is your opinion of post 541?

Which part in particular did you want me to comment on? I did say something about it in my last post which I don't think you've responded to. Also I didn't see a reply to Thor's point that you expected your VT claim to be believed but wouldn't believe others.

I would love to see each of you present any reasoning you can to show that you are either not wolf or not mafia (Lia...showing anything to suggest you are not wolf would be a *very* good thing to do at this stage)

I can't prove I'm not mafia but if I were wolf Kat would have died N2 as I thought she had breadcrumbed seer.

Full disclosure, I thought it was the slot most likely to be the seer

I'm curious as to why?

Maybe Lia has something more concrete. She's been hinting she was suspicious of me since she entered the game.

Apart from what I said in earlier posts there were a couple of places where I thought you were rolefishing but I wasn't sure about it at the time.

[Lia]

I thought Kat had breadcrumbed seer in 220.

[Lia]

Breadcrumb, not softclaim. It's a bit tenuous but I googled the phrase "Lulu cannot carry" and it links to the wiki page for a tv programme where Lulu is the partner of an undercover cop. I couldn't think of any other reason that that was in the post.


I forgot to do this earlier:

Vote: reinoe

[Lia]

or she can just vote for Thor.

Thor sees the writing on the wall because Lia would probably hammer when she logs on.

The fact that Lia was not even able to see the "slip" proves that it was nonsense, but then she conjours up more nonsense in it's place. Like she knew there was a "slip" somewhere in there but couldn't find it (I couldn't either).

I'm not sure whether to be amused or insulted by your suggestions firstly that I would vote without thinking, secondly that I would hammer without a claim, and thirdly that I can't read. Because that's what these quotes amount to. The so-called slip was a null tell to me so, as it had already been discussed in depth, I didn't see any need to add any more to that. For you to claim that I was unable to see it, or couldn't find it, was quite wrong. If you wanted to know what I thought about it you should have just asked me, instead of a general question about the whole post. Or at least clarified it when I asked you which part in particular you wanted me to comment on.

When you said "Let me dissuade you", I would have expected you to follow that up with reasons why you couldn't be scum but you didn't, which is why I raised that one.

but then she conjours up more nonsense in it's place.

What "nonsense" are you referring to here?

What exactly is your case on me? Because as far as I can see it seems to be based on the fact that I didn't want to hammer NT after replacing in until I'd heard from the missing player, mnemonic, so wasn't on the lynch when S and Em hammered him. Is that correct?

[Lia]

@Lia - if you are Mafia this is an optimal time to claim that, I'm not going to lynch you if you're Mafia, and anyone who isn't a Wolf would be playing bad if they kept voting you after a Mafia claim.

Nope, I'm VT. I've been going back and forth on who I think is most likely to be wolf and I keep coming back to reinoe. Why would mafia set up a seer fake claim knowing the wolf would kill them if they claimed it? But a wolf would have the motive of using it to counterclaim a guilty on them.

I'm still waiting for replies from reinoe.

[Lia]

@Lia - what's your read on Justin then, since he refused to hammer you?

Possibly wolf due to 339 plus a couple of places where he seemed to be distancing himself from the kill on Tier.
I don't see him as being mafia now due to the lack of hammer unless he's playing a waiting game. He also doesn't fit with Majiffy as mafia so if both are scum one would have to be wolf, and I think Majiffy is more likely to be wolf than mafia.

If reinoe is wolf I think mafia must be Majiffy/Justin and NM
If Justin is wolf then mafia is reinoe and Majiffy/NM
If Majiffy is wolf then mafia is reinoe and Justin/NM

Reinoe is the only one I'm sure is scum. Most likely wolf but could well be mafia and NM's 715 is another pointer to that.

I don't see the Tiershift and S and Em kills coming from JP, he was in a 1v1 with Tier at the end of day 2 that Tier was barely trying to win and S and Em was whiteknighting him pretty hard

Maybe he the whiteknighting meant they were mafia?

I don't think that's necessarily a crumb though

Why do you think she posted it if it wasn't a crumb?

JP mentioning offhand with no real explanation that he thought Kat was Seer could maybe be a slip

I think it was me that Justin said he thought was a seer. And I don't think he's replied to my question about that yet.

[Lia]

EBWOP: *Maybe he thought the whiteknighting meant they were mafia?

[Lia]

She posts weird stuff like that a fair bit so I don't think that was definitely a crumb,

Can you link me to some examples of this please?

@Lia - why would Justin Werewolf hold off on lynching you to chase Majiffy? I know he, as Mafia, would only hold off on you because either you're his partner or he's playing really poorly - and so you can't really back either of those, natch. But I'm not sure why Wolf him would hold off of finding you worthy of lynch, Wolf prefers a Mafia lynch, natch, but with my claim and a kill, he actually is in a decent position to nail whomever, so I don't really see why a Wolf wouldn't want to hammer you. Instead he defends you. Want to walk me through this?

All I can suggest is that he thinks I'm town and wants to lynch mafia today so that he is free to kill town you tonight. Although his assumption that you had already checked him doesn't fit into that (unless he's faking it but I don't get that feeling). I'm more inclined to think he's mafia out of the two, doesn't think I'm the wolf, and wants to lynch the wolf rather than town. Either that, or he's town and NM is the third scum.

I still like reinoe as wolf but NM's continued defence of him is puzzling me so I'm coming round to the idea that they are partners and that Majiffy is the wolf. But I'm still surest of Reinoe as scum overall.

[Lia]

Why do you need to create strange situations to justify what's going on instead of thinking maybe you are wrong (or lying) about some of your proofs?

Huh? You asked me to walk you through my thoughts on Justin so that's what I did. I think I argued myself out of thinking he was either wolf or mafia in the end. What situations did you think I was creating?


Still waiting for replies from Justin, reinoe an NM.

[Lia]

She was the announcer in this game.

I had a quick look at that but couldn't see what you were referring to. Was that the only link you had?

Your current vote is less than useless at this stage, why are you still voting Reinoe?

Because I'm still second guessing myself over whether reinoe or Majiffy is the wolf. If no one else thinks it's reinoe I'll switch to Majiffy tomorrow.

[Lia]

I'd really rather not. I'm sticking with reinoe and hoping Justin or Thor will vote there.

[Lia]

Well played, Good job Not_Mafia and Justin! You made a good team!

Thanks for the game, Marquis.

I guessed that Thor didn't have any results on live players.

Can't believe Lia didn't believe my Vanilla Townie Claim at the end. Although once I claimed there was no way for her to win, only last a little bit longer.

There was no reason for me to believe your VT claim. I just assumed you made it to avoid being killed.

Wolf kills a mafia goon tonight(because I figured I'd be obvtown) making it 2-1-1.

I make a truce with the wolf and no lynch. The wolf kills the other mafia goon making it 2-1

I go back on my word for an easy town win.

Like I said, there was no way for Lia to win once I claimed.

If I had believed your claim I could well have won as I would have hit mafia and would only have to have avoided a no lynch or being lynched myself, to win. It wouldn't have mattered whether we lynched town or mafia.