Open 554 - omg, like, jungle republic!! + game over~~

[Justin Playfair]

Hi all. Will post this evening!

[Justin Playfair]

Hi again. Okay, some early thoughts. I'm going to break these up into one to a few people a post so as not to create a too impenetrable wall of text.

Let's start with the wagon of the day (so far). Ninja Trigger. Ninja is either scum or playing an absolutely horrible game. If he is scum, he's also playing a pretty horrible game. He overplayed his early game argument with Katarina all the way to either being blinded to the intent of her post 43 or simply ignoring it in the misguided hope of pushing something against her. No one's mentioned it yet but I also sort of hated his post 105. He claims that he will likely move his vote to the wagon on Finglov depending on what Tiershift does. The problem with this is that by stating this he negates any effect this "strategy" could have. And this is the kind of if/then "no blood on my hands" posting that does smack more of scum than newbie. Finally there was the truly awful stuff around his post 233. Ninja Trigger did have a good read on Finglov and the game was slow, plus he was busy...the only thing missing was that his dog ate his read.

I've read and reread Ninja and my gut tells me he's a flailing townie but there's just too much dirt there to ignore. He's not my first choice for today's lynch because at this point he's not my scummiest and because neither a successful or unsuccessful Ninja lynch provides us with much information going into tomorrow.

Ninja: Please answer this: In post 105 what precisely was your motivation for being ready to move your vote to to the Fing wagon and just as importantly what was it that you were waiting for from Tiershift? What could he have done that would have kept you from joining the wagon? What could he have done that would have made you think joining it was a good idea?

Thank you for whatever answers you may provide.

[Justin Playfair]

Oh. I'm getting there, S and Em. I never said there wasn't much information on this topic. I was communicating my take and my reasons for it. And I had a couple of questions that haven't been answered to my satisfaction. I'll have more questions for other folks directly. Just getting settled in.

[Justin Playfair]

Oh, future information. Well, that's an entirely different thing.

Sure, I'll stand behind that statement.

The thing about a Ninja lynch is that if he flips town it's very hard to draw any conclusions about the folks on his wagon because he's been such a consistently suspicious figure. And it's hard to draw any conclusions about the folks who fought against it because the ways in which he's been so shady are mostly consistent with a flailing, inexperienced player. This is not to say that it provides us with no information. I just don't think it would provide us with much.

[Justin Playfair]

EBWOP: Should read And if he flips scum...it's hard to draw any conclusions about the folks who fought against it...

[Justin Playfair]

Mnemonicdevice:

Once again there would be little information to be gleaned from a Mnemonic lynch, but I'm extremely uncomfortable with him. Just 11 posts and six of those with no content whatsoever, but the few things he has done bother me. The vote on Wolfy comes without explanation and Mnemonic later casts it as an "early vote" but its placement would seem to indicate that it was in response to the kerfuffle between S and Em and Wolfy.

Mnemonic: Care to explain your reasons behind this vote?

In post 106 Mnemonic says he will be v/la until the 23rd but he returns on the 19th with this. And then executes an immediate 180 with this. In between those two posts Enomis challenged Mnemonic. And this wasn't just your typical 180, this was a economy sized. Mnemonic went from intent to hammer to Mnemonic saying he had no intent to hammer and there no need to quick lynch and that there was plenty of time in the day to get more information. Mnemonic never attempts to personally discover this information. He also never explains his intent post. He just says he didn't mean it.

We've gotten almost nothing from Mnemonic, but everything he's given us is bad.


Wolfy:

Wolfy's said a few things I agree with. But apart from the mess that was post 107 it is something in post 109 that I keep returning to when I read Wolfy. He says he didn’t know how to get into a three team game. But if you’re town the number of teams is really quite meaningless. There are always only two teams. The righteous and the evil.

Wolfy: Could you tell us what it was about the three team format that gave you so much trouble?

[Justin Playfair]

But if he flips scum, we've lynched scum, so I'm not sure what you're trying to say with that point.

Well sure. And if I was positive he was scum I would have already voted for him, regardless of what information it might provide as we go down the road.

[Justin Playfair]

Majiffy:

I don't like the speed at which Majiffy is pushing the Ninja lynch but I like/agree with almost everything he's posted. I agree with his townread of Jon and his suspicions of Tiershift. To this point I suppose my only concern is what seems like tunneling on Ninja here in day two.

Majiffy: With so much time left in the day why the seeming rush to put a necktie on Ninja?


jon_h61:

There's not a lot to go from but I liked a good bit of what there was. In 174 he scorns the notion of creating an artificial town block. In the same post I like his reaction to Tiershift's challenge of Wolfy over Wolfy's suspicions of S and Em. No real questions here but would sure like more activity from him (or his replacement).


Not_Mafia:

Made the best case against Fing. I don't find anything particularly suspicious about his evolution on Ninja, either. I am a little bothered by some of his earlier interactions with Ninja, though, those early ones when Ninja and Katarina were tussling.

Not_Mafia comes to Katarina's defense in two sequences. The second, defending her against S and Em on the topic of defensiveness/boisterousness seems a weak echo of the role he played in the earlier conflict between Katarina and Ninja. But depending on how you look at that earlier interaction it could just as easily play as Not_Mafia trying to coach and protect Ninja. Not_Mafia's first step in between Kat and Ninja was to vote for Ninja in post 45. But in the very next post Not_Mafia takes the curse off the vote by suggesting the problem might be that Ninja's a newbie and by post 49 Not_Mafia is pointing out that he did the very same thing when he was a youngster.

Not_Mafia, twice now you've stepped into the middle of discussions involving Katarina. Since doing that may have possibly short-circuited exchanges that could conceivably have provided useful information to the town what exactly were your motivations?

Katarina LaBlanc:

Very high noise to signal ratio. But at the end of day one, when the rubber was meeting the road, she refused to jump on the Fing wagon. She was wrong about that, because Fing was scum, but I think her reasons were good. Then she jumped on the Fing wagon when Enomis jumped off. Her reason was wrong, because Enomis wasn't scum, but I can understand why she made that choice.

What I have a harder time understanding is Katarina's evolving opinion on Jon. We go from this late on day one, even after she voted Fing to this early on day two. Now Jon made a pretty good post in between these two sentiments being expressed so maybe that's why, but...

...Katarina, if you could be so kind would you explain why your feelings have changed?

[Justin Playfair]

Oh yes. I read in context first and took notes. I've only been going back in ISO as I've posted.

[Justin Playfair]

Ack.

UNVOTE: Katarina Leblanc

That was Shattered's old vote.

[Justin Playfair]

Majiffy:

I don't like the speed at which Majiffy is pushing the Ninja lynch but I like/agree with almost everything he's posted. I agree with his townread of Jon and his suspicions of Tiershift. To this point I suppose my only concern is what seems like tunneling on Ninja here in day two.

Majiffy: With so much time left in the day why the seeming rush to put a necktie on Ninja?

Slow wagons have the ability to dissipate easier. I don't want the wagon to dissipate.
Fast wagons force scum to choose sides quickly without the ability to properly fabricate strong reasons for reads or plan bussing / counterwagons / etc.

Good enough?

Also it looks like you're going through everyone via ISO. Are you spending any time reading in context?

Of course the other side of that coin is that a fast wagon would allow clever and perhaps charismatic scum to rush a weak townie to the gallows before cooler heads could prevail. So the question is how much you trust not just the judgment but the motives of the folks driving the wagon.

[Justin Playfair]

And now S and Em:

I like so much of his early stuff, especially his early interactions with Wolfy. And though S and Em was involved in the early town block nonsense with Tier his attitude toward it takes the curse off. During the later stages of Day One some of his interactions with Wolfy started to strike me as slap fighty, most especially the exchange that culminated in this post but now that Wolfy's pounced on Ninja S and Em at least seems to be after him in earnest. I think he's probably wrong in his opinion of Jon but I don't see the path he traveled to get there as particularly scummy. I have to be careful here because I like S and Em's play style, like the way he digs the knife in just a little to see how his target jumps, but so far I'm just not seeing much that seems scummy.


Finally TierShift:

So by post 66 TierShift invites S and Em to do this townbloc thingy. In my opinion an early townblock is more helpful to scum than town.

But here's what really bothers me. Compare the logic in this post to what TierShift posts in this exchange. S and Em posts this and this is TierShift's response.

So when Jiffy points out that he is less suspicious of folks for what he considers the way they voted it could also mean they're on the other scum team. But when TierShift decides someone has cast a "natural vote" it means they are town.

That smells. It smells worse because the player being discussed, Jon, was one of the same players TierShift staked out the opposite position on just before.

It smells even worse because this comes about as the result of a disagreement TierShift had with Majiffy which lead TierShift to do a reread that made TierShift go from this post 248 to this post 249 in about 36 minutes, including the writing of the post.

That must have been quite a reread.

S and Em, you asked me who I was most suspicious of. Here it is.

Tiershift, until you can make the sequence of events above make sense to me I have to:

Vote: TierShift

[Justin Playfair]

Hmmm...I am not seeing S and Em's play as being scummy. However, because I enjoy the style in which he plays I have a slight concern that it could color my perceptions.

And yes, I have no doubt that you have a good grasp on your judgment and motives. My response was merely intended to inform you how someone might feel who did not live inside your head. Would you support a galloping wagon you weren't driving for the reasons you gave?

[Justin Playfair]

And I hope you're right because at this point it's kind of hard to imagine Ninja not getting his neck stretched by sundown. And I'll give you that on the scum to clean scale he looks at least waist deep in the dirty. But there are two folks (Mnemonic and Tier) I see as a lot dirtier at the moment and I did just get here so I don't want to ride out of the day too fast.

[Justin Playfair]

Well...I suppose that settles that.

Any chance that in a half hour you'll come back and claim scum? Just 'cause...you know.

[Justin Playfair]

Thank you, Wolfy. I think I may have phrased my statement inelegantly. What I meant specifically was that a three team game should make no difference to the degree in which you hunt scum. There are certainly mechanical differences. But in spite of my poor wording you have answered the intent of my question.

Tier...I almost feel like a bully for pressing this after your "Nah, still town" but could you spare a few words in explanation of why you seem to have changed your mind in such a short space of time about not only who was suspicious but the very nature of what a seemingly solid vote is?

[Justin Playfair]

Oh Ninja.

Okay, if you'd be so kind would you tell me if the part about waiting to see what TierShift would do was also a lie and if not what you were waiting for.

Katarina, thank you for answering. I may have a little follow-up question for you but I'll wait until you answer S and Em's.

S and Em...would you call being a stream of consciousness player a...good thing?

And hi, Lia!

[Justin Playfair]

S and Em...brilliant? Incisive? Possessed of a nearly preternatural ability to root out scum? And why do I have the felling your answer is going to make me sad?

Ninja, are you planning to put up any defense at all?

[Justin Playfair]

Hi Katarina. Might you then explain why Not_Mafia also did not make your list of wagons you were not cool with? Not_Mafia was actually the second vote on the wagon (Jon was third) and Not_Mafia actually made a coherent case against Finglove whereas Jon stated repeatedly that he was just sheeping.

Also these last two posts you've gone back to referring to "the" wolf. There are two of them, I believe.

Anyway, thanks in advance for your response.

[Justin Playfair]

I don't really feel like I'm understanding your response. Hate to be dim but could you explain your answer in a little more detail?

[Justin Playfair]

Well sure. You started here. And in this post you seem very cognizant of the fact that in this game good solid "natural" votes might not mean town. Majiffy is talking about three players who voted for Finglove.

I have NotMafia, Jon and Kat as lean-town from their interactions with the Finglove wagon.

Are you sure you don't just mean 'not same team scum'?

But down below here you certainly seem to be contradicting yourself, not just about Jon's specific case but about the nature of what voting naturally means. This sort of inconsistency strikes me as awfully suspicious.

Voting naturally points to town, not to other team scum.

And yes, it does seem more suspicious yet that this comes shortly after your 36 minute Road to Jerusalem reread led you to sheeping Tajiffy' reads. To me it looks like your tried to buddy with S and Em early when it looked to you like together you could lead town and you shifted to Tajiffy once he seemed to be leading it.

I mean if you want more here's another exchange between you and S and Em from not long before.

People I want to vote:
Tier for bad vibes
Jiffy cause I don't trust him and weird finglove wagonstarting
SV for doing not really anything ever, like it but unhelpful srsly
Kat for overdefensiveness and weird finglove wagondislikingbutjoininganyway
Jon for every post, and sheeping jiffy on finglove even though meh reading him

Good list but where is wolfy?

You'd expressed suspicion of Jon and Kat throughout the game (to the extent you participated) and made your transition to sheeping Majiffy's reads at what seems like an awfully scum convenient time. You at least seemed to hold one view on what a natural vote meant and then the directly contradictory one, which seems to me a change of heart on more than just Jon but what an action means. Once again, at a convenient time.

I'm sorry Tiershift, because I really like your doggy, but I guess that's how I'd explain your behavior being scummy.

[Justin Playfair]

Sorry, just rereading your last post where you say "I wondered what Majiffy meant because the way NotMaf interacted with the wagon didn't make me think he was town, perhaps not same team scum."

And that strikes me as odd too, because you never mention anything about Not_Mafia.

I have NotMafia, Jon and Kat as lean-town from their interactions with the Finglove wagon.

Are you sure you don't just mean 'not same team scum'?

I mean Tajiffy did...

Not Mafia perhaps, kat and esp jon look strictly town.

But you never even agreed with him. Your next post is still full of suspicion of Jon:

Yeah NT's post was bad but I need a reread on the full game before really judging.

Why is jon getting townreads?

So maybe you were wondering about Not_Mafia. In your head. In thread it wasn't him you seem to have been talking about.

[Justin Playfair]

I need to look at the timeline of events there but I remember Tiershift mentioning a scumread on me at least twice, one of which I'm pretty sure was on d1.

Hi Not_Mafia. We were discussing this specific incident.

[Justin Playfair]

I need to look at the timeline of events there but I remember Tiershift mentioning a scumread on me at least twice, one of which I'm pretty sure was on d1.

Well he random voted you at the very start of the day and asked you and Katarina to explain your relationship in #129.

(By the way, Not_Mafia, when you have a chance I'd really appreciate an answer to my earlier question on that topic)

But no, until 249, really almost nothing. And even what's there looks kind of forced:

Hi I did a reread:

Town people:
Kat jon majiffy

Townish:
SV wolfy

Concerning peepz from least to most concerning:
Mnem-weak play overall, says he's gonna step it up but is not showing
Notmaf-dunno what to say don't like his questions, 202 for instance
BDSM-well his posting is really awkward actually, 31 is way too serious in tone, while 64 makes me think he is buddies with finglove for the pressure without voting
Chrono trigger guy-the way he responds to a little pressure is awkward like in 233 and his L-1 sheep was super awkward too. There is just a little part of me that says he might just be behaving like this due to being new but I want him gone still.



And it was after that question in 202 (and specifically your behavior that he reportedly found curious on Finglove's wagon) that he cast this vote:

VOTE: jon
I think I wanted that dead too yesterday.

V/LA till next sunday

On a holiday, definitely time to play but not sure if I'll have internet access.

There just doesn't seem to me to be a way Tiershift could have believed the things he said he believed at the times he said they believed them that corresponds to the real world timeline.

Tiershift, if it was Not_Mafia's motivations you suspected coming out of the vote on Finglove and not Jon's or Kat's why did you slam a vote down on Jon as soon as day two started? Because if it was Not_Mafia's motivations you doubted, as you just claimed, then it follows that you didn't believe Jon was a werewolf. And you didn't seem to think Jon was some very clever Mafia. So why the resounding vote there?

[Justin Playfair]

I've reread your post at the top of this page a few times now and I don't understand it, are you trying to say he's been inconsistent? He readflipped on Jon and Kat but he was consistent with his read on me, he hadn't talked about me as much as he had Jon and Kat however he mentioned a scumread of me d1 and you've quoted him talking about me in a group with Kat and Jon.

Nope, no day one scumread unless you're counting his very first post in the rvs. Asks a question about you and Kat's relationship once.

I mean if I'm missing it, Not_Mafia, please post it. Always possible I could have missed it. Really don't think so, though.

[Justin Playfair]

Finglove/Jon/Wolfy/?/?

/kat/notmaf?

Really I want you two to come in here and talk about recent happenings.

A passive mention but a mention nonetheless

So you didn't find anything other than the thing I've mentioned repeatedly. Which was a question regarding your and Kat's relationship. Now please just follow this timeline:

You, Kat and Jon all vote for Finglove. And Finglove is hung. And Finglove is scum.

Tiershift then slams a vote down on JOHN as soon as the next day starts.

Now just slightly later Tiershift objects to Majiffy's characterization of you, Kat and Jon as appearing townish because of the way you voted Finglove. He suggests you may just as well be on the other scum team.

Majiffy says maybe Not_Mafia's on the other team but not Jon and Katarina.

Tiershift does not make any statement regarding Not_Mafia or agreeing with Majiffy but goes on to voice more suspicion of Jon. All the way up to #249 when he forsakes all of his opinions and swallows Majiffy's opinions pretty much whole.

He now tells us he said what he did because he suspected YOUR vote might be shady. If this is true why didn't he vote for you, Not_Mafia? Why didn't he agree with Majiffy at the time Majiffy raised this point? And why, if it was his read on you, Not_Mafia, that was troubling him, did he vote Jon as soon as day two started?

Do you understand better now?

[Justin Playfair]

And in this post you seem very cognizant of the fact that in this game good solid "natural" votes might not mean town.

Ftr I never said this

All right, let's dispense with this first. What else would this exchange mean?

Jiffy cause I don't trust him and weird finglove wagonstarting

You should probably just stop speaking before you look any dumber.

I have NotMafia, Jon and Kat as lean-town from their interactions with the Finglove wagon.


If that is not expressing the opinion that what seems like a natural town vote for suspected scum could mean that the player casting it is on the other scum team, what exactly does it mean?

Shattered and Ninja lean scum for their empty, wagon-jumping votes.

Looks like the two slots that had the most to gain from an Enomis death were Ninja and mnemonic (particularly mnemonic).

I say we split the difference and hit Ninja today, look at {Shattered, mnemonic} in the immediate future, work outside that set afterwards.

Followed by...

I have NotMafia, Jon and Kat as lean-town from their interactions with the Finglove wagon.

Are you sure you don't just mean 'not same team scum'?

Majiffy expressed the opinion that the nature of their votes leads him to believe they are town. You counter by saying that it could mean they are on the other scum team. So, we've taken care of that point.

[Justin Playfair]

The main problem I'm having with justin is that he's portraying immense amounts of IIoA, while being extremely indecisive. Not in a paranoia way, but in a 'I see this behaviour but I don't wanna attach a value judgement' way. A manner in which he can swing both ways if necessary. The questions he asks people, are mostly answered and will definitely not help him towards forming a read.

Tiershift, there's this thing called projection. I would suggest the vote I've placed and the conversation we're having would argue against my indecision. Whereas your spiel of my vote's on Ninja but I could vote a couple other people plus I hecka voted jon first thing on day two even though my secret identical to Majiffy read was that it was Not_Mafia's vote on Finglove that was really questionable strikes me as...you know, either indecisive or a scum who's willing to point the finger just about anywhere as long as it keeps a finger from pointing at him.

Because you see I've attached a value judgment to almost everyone here at this point. And about those questions, one of which led to Ninja admitting he'd lied about having a read, another of which led to you telling town that you'd had a suspicious reaction to Not_Mafia's vote on Finglove, but not on Jon's who you immediately voted for on day two. And yeah, my questions have helped me solidify my read on you, somewhat reduced my suspicions of Wolfy, somewhat increased my suspicions of Katarina and made me think even more that if we lynch Ninja today we'll be lynching the village idiot. These are what are commonly called value judgments and they have evolved from reads the answers to my questions have helped create.

I've read and reread Ninja and my gut tells me he's a flailing townie but there's just too much dirt there to ignore. He's not my first choice for today's lynch because at this point he's not my scummiest and because neither a successful or unsuccessful Ninja lynch provides us with much information going into tomorrow.

First of all here's a poop reason not to vote NT. The rest of his post seems to imply NT is scum but somehow he wants to uphold the idea that NT is town. Tries to dissuade us from lynching NT by calling his lynch non-informative, a hollow and meaningless word.

We've gotten almost nothing from Mnemonic, but everything he's given us is bad.

An example of setting himself up to call him either town or scum later on.

I don't like the speed at which Majiffy is pushing the Ninja lynch but I like/agree with almost everything he's posted. I agree with his townread of Jon and his suspicions of Tiershift. To this point I suppose my only concern is what seems like tunneling on Ninja here in day two.

Jiffy he wants the D

I get the feeling he's not really looking for scum but just setting up a position from which he can go in whatever direction he pleases.

Hmmm...maybe I do want the D. Majiffy's avatar is certainly appealing. But I'm not the player who reread the thread in a half hour and swallowed every last one of Majiffy's reads. That would be you. Don't worry. You get the first dance.

Now as for this setting up a position from which he can go in whatever direction he pleases?

Ummm...my name's Tiershift and I'm voting for Ninja but I'd be happy to vote for Justin or S and Em and I had a bad read on Not_Mafia's vote and so I voted for Jon and I want Katarina and Jon outside my townblock and I really wanted It (jon) dead yesterday or maybe he's solid town. I mean I did a 30 minute reread and changed all my reads but I never gave reasons for what I found that made me do it.

Let's see, my name's Justin and from reading the thread I found Tiershift the most likely scum and I made a case against him and I'm prosecuting it. Damn, I'm all over the place.

Really, Tiershift, if you were going to launch an OMGUS attack on me it probably would have been better to try to accuse me of tunneling. Because pretty much everything you've said about me...well, you're doing it.

Justin, I want you to make a reads list in which you categorize people.
How do you feel about SM and his interaction around the finglove wagon?

I am so tempted to ask you to change your avatar. Instead I'll ask you to list what it was in your reread that made you change your reads on Jon and Katarina. Commit yourself to something at last. Own your opinion on just these two changes.

Oh, and own this, too. If it really was Not_Mafia's vote that you thought indicated scum in the Finglove thread, if you thought that Jon's did not, why did you vote Jon as soon as the second day dawned? And so vehemently?

You see, it's been awhile since I played Mafia, but I'm pretty sure that it's still a scumtell when someone's words don't match their actions. And by the way, that's the crux of my case, even more than your opportunistic sheeping.

[Justin Playfair]

I have NotMafia, Jon and Kat as lean-town from their interactions with the Finglove wagon.

Are you sure you don't just mean 'not same team scum'?

Majiffy expressed the opinion that the nature of their votes leads him to believe they are town. You counter by saying that it could mean they are on the other scum team. So, we've taken care of that point.

Yeah, because I didn't see Not_maf as town from his voting pattern. That's why I asked. Perhaps jif and I don't have the same definition of natural voting.

All right, this time one at a time and put as simply as I can.

If the above it true then...

Why didn't you mention Not_Mafia at the time?

Why, if it was Not_Mafia's vote you were suspicious of in the voting thread did you open your day two activities with this post...

VOTE: jon
I think I wanted that dead too yesterday.

V/LA till next sunday

On a holiday, definitely time to play but not sure if I'll have internet access.

where you definitively vote someone who apparently you just had a good read on, regarding their vote on Finglove?

[Justin Playfair]

Ummm...my name's Tiershift and I'm voting for Ninja but I'd be happy to vote for Justin or S and Em and I had a bad read on Not_Mafia's vote and so I voted for Jon and I want Katarina and Jon outside my townblock and I really wanted It (jon) dead yesterday or maybe he's solid town. I mean I did a 30 minute reread and changed all my reads but I never gave reasons for what I found that made me do it.

Yeah, because that's what scum do, right? If you want me to respond to this, you might want to stop the passive aggressiveness.

Let's see, my name's Justin and from reading the thread I found Tiershift the most likely scum and I made a case against him and I'm prosecuting it. Damn, I'm all over the place.

Really, Tiershift, if you were going to launch an OMGUS attack on me it probably would have been better to try to accuse me of tunneling. Because pretty much everything you've said about me...well, you're doing it.

Is this your defense? The fact that you haven't attacked more than one person and that my attack is OMGUS? Bravo.

First? I don't think you know what the word passive means.

Second, you can't even quote honestly from a post directly above your own. Let's put this in context:

I get the feeling he's not really looking for scum but just setting up a position from which he can go in whatever direction he pleases.

Hmmm...maybe I do want the D. Majiffy's avatar is certainly appealing. But I'm not the player who reread the thread in a half hour and swallowed every last one of Majiffy's reads. That would be you. Don't worry. You get the first dance.

Now as for this setting up a position from which he can go in whatever direction he pleases?

Ummm...my name's Tiershift and I'm voting for Ninja but I'd be happy to vote for Justin or S and Em and I had a bad read on Not_Mafia's vote and so I voted for Jon and I want Katarina and Jon outside my townblock and I really wanted It (jon) dead yesterday or maybe he's solid town. I mean I did a 30 minute reread and changed all my reads but I never gave reasons for what I found that made me do it.

Let's see, my name's Justin and from reading the thread I found Tiershift the most likely scum and I made a case against him and I'm prosecuting it. Damn, I'm all over the place.

Really, Tiershift, if you were going to launch an OMGUS attack on me it probably would have been better to try to accuse me of tunneling. Because pretty much everything you've said about me...well, you're doing it.

I don't know that it deserves a bravo but yes, going in a specific direction is a good defense against being accused of setting yourself up to go in any direction.

Speaking is a good defense of an accusation of being mute. Running is a good defense against an accusation of being legless.

You, on the other hand, have throughout the game set yourself up so that you could go in just about any direction you pleased. As illustrated by my in no way passive list above.

So let's keep score here. You accused me of setting myself up to go in any direction I wanted. You then say that your setting yourself up to go in any direction you wanted is not a scum tell. And you say that my committing myself to a course of action is no defense against your accusation of setting myself up to do in any direction I wanted.

Please. Continue.

[Justin Playfair]

No. I'm not setting myself up to go in any direction, sorry.

I asked you for a readslist with all the players neatly categorized, why are you unable to provide this?

Ahhh...so you've reached this stage. Let's see. Yes, you are setting yourself up to go in any direction. You have been since the start of day one. Your actions indicate this behavior. You suggested that this is what I was doing. My actions do not indicate this behavior. This has been illustrated with examples. Sorry?

And really why should anyone provide you with what you ask for when you haven't provided anyone with anything you've been asked for since the beginning of the game? You can't even provide what changed your mind about Katarina and Jon during your thirty minute conversion. You haven't even answered why, if it was your read on Not_Mafia's vote on Finglove that indicated dirt, as you now claim, that at the time you jumped so hard in voting on Jon, whose voting activity regarding Finglove you thought was just fine.

You answer literally nothing that is asked of you. Ever.

Then again, I am not you. So I'll do even more than you asked. I will list everyone in town in order from worst to first. This is my current read:


TierShift
MnemonicDevice
Katarina
Ninja_Trigger
Wolfy
S and Em
Not_Mafia
Majiffy
Jon/Lia

And I'll give you extra. Here was the order when I first entered the game, before the interactions that have taken place since:

Tiershift
MnemonicDevice
Ninja_Trigger
Wolfy
Katarina
Not_Mafia
Majiffy
Jon/Lia
S and Em

I think it goes without saying that I will not be answering anymore of your questions until you give real answers to those above. Anyone else who would like to ask me questions about the changes on the list...or anything really, are certainly welcome to.

[Justin Playfair]

Hi Lia. I am distancing myself from this lynch. I'm uncomfortable with it, and I've just grown more uncomfortable with it since Ninja's graceless admission that he was lying. I don't imagine we'll see Ninja again before he's swinging from the end of a rope. The more I think about it and the more I've seen the more Ninja seems to me like just really bad, discombobulated town. I think we're making a bad lynch here. Hope I'm wrong, but I've made my best case for more certain scum and I don't see any votes moving.

[Justin Playfair]

Been rereading the thread over and over again, for the obvious reasons. Anyway, Mnemonic was the number two guy on my scumread, but then the number one guy on my scumread got killed as town last night. And I was feeling better about Wolfy, mostly because of the way he answered my question to him. But these three posts seem to tell a story all by themselves.

You gotta remember that my vote did lead to a mafia death, and

I did have a good read on finglove

so I acted on it with my vote.

Sorry for my empty reasoning or lack of an explanation I was super busy

those few days and could really only make dodge pod posts. He also just happened to have the larger wagon at the time, and the game was moving at a snails pace, so most of the other people only jumped on to see some action. I say we keep looking and see what happens

And the good read was? I din't see and still haven't seen any explanation of the finglove vote.
if you're not super busy at the moment maybe you could give us the reasoning/explanation now?

Who do you think is scum NT and why?
24 hours ago I had you down for town - now I'm leaning scum.
What can you tell me to push me back to a town read.

Wow

wow

that post has almost made me change my mind just by itself

wolfy whyyyy

Wow

wow

that post has almost made me change my mind just by itself

wolfy whyyyy

Why what? Why did I question NT when I had previously said I thought he was newbietown?
Answered in the two posts - 293 was the trigger, it didn't look newbietown. I went back and looked and 233 prompted questions.

Wolfy might be NT's buddy?

only if he's town...

I you guys are reading this as scum alignment then your reading skills are not as good as you'd like to think they are.

I'd rather have answers as to why the unexplained vote on finglove even though he knows he hasn't explained...
VOTE: ninja trigger

I mean it's all sort of right there, right down to the vote. Not sure how I didn't see it earlier, except maybe wanting to hang Tiershift so much. Still do, kind of. But since I can't...

Vote: Wolfy

[Justin Playfair]

Hi Wolfy. Why did you ask NT all these questions without voting him in

And the good read was? I din't see and still haven't seen any explanation of the finglove vote.
if you're not super busy at the moment maybe you could give us the reasoning/explanation now?

Who do you think is scum NT and why?
24 hours ago I had you down for town - now I'm leaning scum.
What can you tell me to push me back to a town read.

and then vote him right away here

I'd rather have answers as to why the unexplained vote on finglove even though he knows he hasn't explained...
VOTE: ninja trigger

With just an hour and a half and two posts, neither from NT, between?

What changed in between the two posts, the first in which you asked questions without voting and the second where you voted? Was it this?

wow

that post has almost made me change my mind just by itself

wolfy whyyyy

If it was something else could you tell us what it was?

[Justin Playfair]

@Lia. Wolfy had fallen on my list yesterday, though, and my number two was consistently Mnemonic. Mostly though it was kicking myself for reading the words in the exchange I quoted and not seeing the significance of the vote.

Plus, in spite of what Wolfy said about me carrying on as if nothing had happened I was...let's be polite and say nonplussed...about what happened yesterday and last night. The more NT flailed the more certain I was we were lynching the wrong person, and by the time he admitted he lied and had no read at all I was nearly certain. It was like he just curled up and decided to die and to me that's more usually the behavior of bad town than bad scum. Then the guy I was certain was scum not only gets killed in the night, he flips town. Takes a while to walk that off.

[Justin Playfair]

Bit of a prod dodge but I would like to wait until mnemonic's replacement arrives before we go any farther.

[Justin Playfair]

@Majiffy...I hated Mnemonic's intent to hammer/no intent to hammer, but looking at his overall play at this point it seems as likely to have been the play of an uninvolved player as a scummy one. What makes you so sure he's the right lynch that you'd be willing to string him up in absentia?

And hi, Thor.

[Justin Playfair]

My main reason for suspecting mnemonic, apart from POE, was the way he backtracked on Finglove. And I see my other remaining suspect, Justin, is now defending him against that. Which makes me think you two may be the mafia and one of my town reads is the remaining wolf.

Hi Lia.

I'm not defending Thor/Mnemonic so much as becoming increasingly uncomfortable with Majiffy. I feel pretty sure at this point that Majiffy is our last wolf, and not just because he's taken such pains to express relief that werewolves didn't kill him. There's also the fact that though Majiffy called out Ninjatrigger's scummy behavior on day two he didn't vote him immediately. Contrast that with Majiffy's voting behavior on days three and four. So Majiffy's slams down votes on Wolfy and mnemonic/thor with his first posts on days three and four without any explanation...

...but on day two he calls out Ninjatrigger but waits until Tiershift casts the first vote before putting his there. And oddly enough the only morning Majiffy doesn't express his relief to be alive is the morning after a werewolf was lynched.

As far as mnemonic goes I was initially very suspicious of his intent to hammer/no he'd never hammer on Finglove, but looking at it now what I can't quite make work is how it adds up to scum specific play as opposed to bad null play. It his intent to hammer post was meant as some kind of phantom bussing of his scumbuddy his immediate retraction under the mildest pressure draws more attention to him (and the exchange) than doing nothing at all. If retracting his intent to hammer was meant to derail the wagon why didn't he follow it up with any sort of...anything that might have led town in a different direction?

Beyond that the closest we have to a real tell on mnemonic/Thor was the fact that he never did vote for Finglove.

Yes, it is easy to lynch the low content, lurker slot. But it's not a great way to hunt scum.

At this point I think the most likely mafia is Katarina/Reinoe. And maybe it works in concert with a Katarina and mnemonic scum team, but I just don't think so. Katarina slips onto the Finglove wagon with the next to last vote. She does this after several posts in which she pointed out that she didn't suspect Finglove. The reason she gives for voting Finglove is because Enomis stopped voting Finglove. And even after she settles her vote on the wagon she posts this:

I could flash wagon on jon, we can probably do that too.

and even throws the chaff into the air that is post 187.


Anyway, by my way of thinking we are probably in the same place tomorrow morning whether we lynch mafia or wolf today. If we lynch wolf we're at three to two and if we lynch mafia the wolf has no reason not to kill tonight, and we probably wake up to two-one-one. There's a one in four shot, though, that wolf hits Mafia, which would leave us at three to one, and so I'm going to:

Vote: Reinoe

By the way, Reinoe, Lia wasn't just not voting Ninja, she was actually voting with him, as, at the time of Ninja's lynch, one of only two votes on Wolfy. Lia is the least likely wolf in town.

[Justin Playfair]

3)You analysis doesn't even consider the prospect of lynching town. Yeah, becuase it's a very strong chance it's game over tomorrow if town gets lynched and then werewolves kill town tonight. Hence why I am being completely and totally honest and open. Werewolves have to work with town tonight to lynch a goon because an erroneous nightkill tonight leads to a mafia win. Somehow you didn't facter these facts into that shitstorm you think looks like "analysis".

First, there was no reason to discuss what the consequences were should town mislynch today. Not_Mafia and Majiffy already did that. My consideration was whether to vote for someone I believe to be mafia or someone I believe to be a wolf, and I chose to vote for the person I think is most likely mafia for that reason.

Second, the wolf has to work with town today to lynch a goon. Not tonight.

Third...

Hence why I am being completely and totally honest and open. Werewolves have to work with town tonight to lynch a goon because an erroneous nightkill tonight leads to a mafia win.

So this situation, in which the wolf and town have to work together, is why you are being completely and totally honest and open? Because otherwise you'd be dishonest and concealing...town?

You know, I might owe Majiffy an apology come tomorrow. But I really like my vote right now.

[Justin Playfair]

@Thor Majiffy is town because he lead wagons on both factions, I'm aware that bussing exists but neither felt like a bus to me, we know now that at least one of the mafia did bus but he's made himself too much of an NK target to be mafia. Kat is town because I found her tentativeness surrounding the Finglove wagon genuine so I don't think she's mafia and I don't think her early game interactions with Ninja come from scumpartners

Not_Mafia, could you then explain your reasons for thinking lia and I are scum? Because there's just three of us left who are town, and if you're presenting yourself as town and clearing Majiffy and Kat/reinoe, then you've decided who scum is. I'd love to hear some reasons.

Also, you've been hanging on to that tentative reaction to the finglove wagon as your reason to townread Katarina for a really long time, along the way jumping in to defend her whenever she was too "boisterous" or "over-defensive". So is that read still paramount to you after...

Hence why I am being completely and totally honest and open. Werewolves have to work with town tonight to lynch a goon because an erroneous nightkill tonight leads to a mafia win.

and

@MOD

If we get into a situation of 2 mafia goons, 1 townie, one werewolf, do the mafia win?

Because so far as I can see reinoe isn't interested in the town's win conditions at all.

[Justin Playfair]

You know, I might owe Majiffy an apology come tomorrow. But I really like my vote right now.

@Not_Mafia. This would have been part of the post where I pointed out Reinoe's slip. I know you're sweet on the Katarina slot, and you've put a lot of effort into protecting it, but it really is scum.

[Justin Playfair]

Hi Thor.

I know you didn't ask me specifically, but it seems to me that your seer plan is flawed.

If the seer claimed then these are our possible scenarios:

1. wolf is lynched. tomorrow dawns three town and two scum
2. mafia is lynched. werewolf kills seer. tomorrow dawns two town, one wolf, one mafia, and town loses the benefit of seer
3. town is lynched. werewolf chooses not to kill. tomorrow dawns two town, two mafia, and one wolf
4. town is lynched. knowing who the seer is the wolf chooses to make a kill (with two to one odds in its favor, even without whatever reads it has) and kills mafia. tomorrow dawns one wolf, one mafia, two town (one confirmed).
5. town is lynched. werewolf kills and misses mafia. mafia wins.

If the seer does not claim these are our possible scenarios:

1. same as above. seer can then claim and scum will be forced to either counterclaim or one town will be confirmed.
2. mafia is lynched. werewolf kills, with a one in four chance of hitting either the seer or the remaining mafia. if the mafia is hit morning dawns with three town, including the seer, and one wolf.
3. mafia is lynched. werewolf kills town. morning rises with two town (with a two in three chance of the seer surviving), one wolf and one mafia.
4. town is lynched. wolf chooses to make a kill (without benefit of knowing who the seer is) and either morning comes with two town, one wolf, and one mafia or mafia wins.

Basically the possibilities break down like this:

If we lynch mafia today the wolf will almost certainly kill the seer tonight, if the seer reveals. It deprives town of tonight's seer reading. However, if the seer does not reveal there is the possibility of the best case scenario for town, which is that mafia is lynched and mafia is killed by wolf. That would mean a three one split with the seer having at least one and possibly two night readings in an increasingly shrinking pool.

If we hit wolf the outcomes are identical whether seer reveals or not. the seer revealing does give town a better chance of catching scum, but beyond removing one from a group of six we have no way of knowing how much better a chance it gives us in catching the werewolf specifically. The one in six improvement doesn't really help town if we end up catching mafia, because it means the seer will almost certainly be killed during the night.

If we hit town the seer revealing itself could help narrow the wolf's options during the night and might help guide it to mafia, if it chooses to kill. But that seems mighty cold comfort, because it puts the fate of town into the claws of the wolf.

So in short, revealing the seer eliminates the best possible town swing and empowers the werewolf, unless the were wolf is lynched today. In exchange it increases by perhaps as small as a 1 in 6 chance town's likelihood of catching scum.

[Justin Playfair]

I don't see that as phantom bussing. More like he saw the wagon form, thought he needed to bus, and then realised there might be a chance for the wagon to fizzle out as it was still quite early. He left his vote on Wolfy despite saying it should probably be gotten rid of, leaving a foundation for another wagon while not taking responsibility for it, and avoiding being seen to push a mislynch on someone else.

Hi Lia. I can buy that, I guess, but it seems such terrible, attention attracting play. I tend to have a blind spot for poorly playing scum because it's so hard to tell them from poorly playing town. I guess it was that added on to mnemonic's subsequent dwindling to the point of replacing out guided my opinion here.

In post 540, Justin Playfair wrote:Yes, it is easy to lynch the low content, lurker slot. But it's not a great way to hunt scum.


But is anyone doing this? This strikes me as a strawman.

How else would you describe mnemonic? 15 posts, including the one that said "hmmmm", the one that said "Now we know S&M is experienced", the two posts promising to do better, the two posts apologizing for not doing better, the post noting that the game was moving slowly, his random vote, the post telling Marquis she's missed his random vote, the post defending his hard to type name and his post asking to be replaced.

I mean, outside of that two post turnaround there isn't really anything to judge him on. Menmonic was the very definition of a low content, lurker slot, it is easy to lynch those, and I don't think it's a great way to hunt scum, especially in this situation. Now you can like Mafia and Majiffy voting Mnemonic first thing today. That's fine. But there's no way to deny that Mnemonic was a low content, lurker slot.

Thor, on the other hand, has not been. And one of those early morning votes has already crept away. Do you really think it would have been taken off if mnemonic were still here and barely speaking?

[Justin Playfair]

The best town swing is to lynch the Wolf today.
Seer reveal focuses town to a 1/4 chance to nail Wolf.
Seer reveal focuses Mafia to a 1/3 chance.

Right on both scores. But if we miss the wolf, and if we hit mafia, we almost certainly lose the seer tonight. We lose what the seer might be able to report, in an ever dwindling pool of suspects.

If we hit mafia without outing the seer there is a one in four chance that the wolf will do half of the rest of town's work tonight and we'll wake up tomorrow with three town, one wolf and a functioning and living seer.

Unless town lynches town today you're betting the seer for a 1 in 5 instead of a 1 in 6 chance of hitting the wolf. That's what it really comes down to.

I think that's a bad bet, and one that has more of a chance of benefiting the wolf than it does town. The danger doesn't increase much for the wolf (though theoretically it could increase more if the seer has reads on the still living), and if it gets a mafia lynch today we've served up our seer for a midnight snack.

[Justin Playfair]

I don't see the problem in trading Seer for Mafia at this stage, and if Mafia wants to avoid that then they should have one of their members claim first, since that would actually help their wincon at this stage.

Mafia would probably like it if the seer revealed. It means that the only possible situations for them coming out of tonight would be 2-1-1 or 3-2.
Wolf would probably love it if the seer revealed. For the wolf the best tomorrow gets is 3-1 no matter what, but a revealed seer plus a mafia lynch would equal not having to worry about being outed by the seer.
Town, with the seer unrevealed, has a possibility of a 3-1 edge tomorrow. That possibility doesn't exist for us any other way.

No, I keep trying to make you define your scum. I point out the danger of you lynching a scum who is mafia as opposed to wolf. That is not a misconception on my part - it is what you're saying, and if it's not you really need to clarify your stance some more.

Only if we hit the wolf tomorrow in lylo. We need to hit the wolf within two lynches to win, otherwise we lose. We can hit mafia via a lynch or a kill, but we can only hit the wolf via a lynch.

Well, no, if we lynch the wolf today we can only kill mafia by lynch, too.

So it's important to lynch the wolf today because we can kill the mafia by lynch or nightkill? By throwing a dead wolf at them?

And since it's so important to get the wolf let's out our seer so that just in case we don't get it today we can lose our best tool with which to find it.

Plus, you're so towny you're making an open offer to mafia to sheep them in their hunt for the werewolf if they just identify themselves to you. But what if mafia sucks at finding scum? What if they pick someone you're sure is town? So you'd be willing to lynch town today, on the say of mafia, just so you could go to night 2-2-1 and maybe go into tomorrow 2-1-1 where a lynch of mafia means a certain wolf win and a lynch of town means a certain mafia win? You'd trade away town's best possible outcome of today, two dead mafia, three live town one of whom is the seer, and one live wolf, just out of hand?

No, Thor, your wagon still has wheels.

Unvote: reinoe

Vote: Thor

[Justin Playfair]

Unvote Thor

Doubt Thor's going to give away his reads right now. They're his prime scumhunting tool.

If you've got any questions for me, ask them.

[Justin Playfair]

Thor, if it makes any difference I thought you were caught mafia, not caught wolf. Mnemonic's weird voting was around the Finglove lynch and Finglove flipped mafia. You were under suspicion of being mafia and then as part of your plan you sweep out this strange mafia come forward and I will sheep you bit. It seemed like you wanted town to think you could only be the wolf, which would undercut the suspicion that was on you.

I like nothing about the votes on Lia. Especially yours, Majiffy. You seemed awfully certain Jon/Lia was town for a very long time and you haven't posted anything since to indicate you'd changed your mind. Why Lia?

[Justin Playfair]

VOTE: Lia

Majiffy stays as my townread. Lia I find the most likely to be wolf, I think Justin is mafia, and that he and Lia are unlikely partners, which leaves me with Reinoe+JP and Lia

Not_Mafia? I only joined the mafia when I started defending the mnemonic/thor slot, because I always found someone to be more suspicious of than mnemonic and clearly I was trying to chainsaw to defend him. So then...

...I not only stay mafia when the guy I was defending, the guy who defined me as mafia, turned out not to be, but my new partner is Reinoe, who I was "chainsawing" to try to save my old mafia partner mnemonic/thor. The same Reinoe/Katarina who you've spent the whole game defending.

Majiffy sees you as obvtown. Do you see him the same way? Because it surely has seemed for an awfully long time that it was Katarina/Reinoe who held that spot for you. Why doesn't it anymore?

Also, though Lia has expressed suspicion of me throughout the game I've been reading her slot as town since I first entered the game. Full disclosure, I thought it was the slot most likely to be the seer, so what do I know, but based on the "case" on me being mafia, which was that I expressed doubt about lynching the slot that now seems to have flipped seer, Lia would seem a more likely partner, since the situation is almost identical.

I mean now that Thor has replaced into the mnemonic slot, and especially now that he's claimed seer, we see votes flowing like water to the next most seemingly defenseless player without any sort of case being made, and me not liking it.

And just out of curiosity, since you seem to have settled on me and Reinoe as your mafia team, which one of us would you vote to lynch first?

[Justin Playfair]

Hi Thor.

Nope. I'd be happy to answer any direct questions you have. I'd be happy to explain my reasoning for any choice or scumread I've made. Actually, pretty much all my thoughts are in my posts, so there probably won't be a lot for me to add, but I'll be happy to do what I can. But write an essay on why I'm not the scum you're looking for? Sorry. Think I'll leave that for the scum.

As far as who the three scum are my money would be on Majiffy, Not_Mafia, and Reinoe. And I still like Majiffy best for the werewolf, both for the reasons in my earlier post and because of Not_Mafia's behavior when he dropped his vote on Lia and moved Katarina/Reinoe from his towniest town ever slot to his mafia with me slot.

I'll accept that Not_Mafia might think Lia is the wolf. I think it's irrelevant, though. He's going for the easy lynch again. But he ducks from keeping Katarina/Reinoe in his towny-town slot at last, because at this point that would make Majiffy one of his three scums and put him on Majiffy's radar, and Majiffy as town or wolf would draw more attention to Not_Mafia than Not_Mafia seems comfortable with. So instead he slips Katarina/Reinoe into his second mafia slot. He's not going to get pushback there, because after Lia gets lynched tonight (and it wouldn't matter which way she flipped) I could be put in the number one mafia noose. After all, I must be the number one mafia, look at the number of partners I've had.

[Justin Playfair]

I'll choose to take that as "there is no evidence to suggest I'm not scum".

Well, you take it as you feel you have to. I think pretty much everything I've done would indicate I'm town. I suppose I could point out that Majiffy had to go all the way to some unnamed tomfoolery from Shattered to label me as some sort of generic scum, Reinoe identified me as a possible wolf by the intensely accurate method of deciding the remaining wolf hadn't voted for Ninja, and pretty much all the remaining suspicion of me came from my defense of you. So yes, I guess I'd say everything I've done so far, based on the list above. Maybe Lia has something more concrete. She's been hinting she was suspicious of me since she entered the game.

How do you take Majiffy as a bus on Ninja? Because that was a pretty intense bus.

Ninja was flailing out of the gate. And not just regular flailing. Extra special horrible flailing. He admitted that he was lying about having a read on someone in response to the first question I asked him. He was so artlessly terrible that if I'd been scum, and he'd been my scum partner, I would have calculated my chances of winning at being infinitely greater with him gone from the town as quickly as possible, because at best he was not long for this world, and given enough time he would have probably gotten me caught too. Ninja's only real value was as a judas goat, and if you're going to have to run one out there you might as well run them as hard as you can. You seem to have a pretty high regard for Majiffy as a player, and Majiffy certainly has a high regard for himself. So ask yourself this:

If Majiffy is the wolf, how do you think he would have dealt with Ninja?

I could potentially accept Not_Mafia/Reinoe as a mafia pair, certainly their interactions with each other work with that. Do you think their interactions with Finglove work with them as a mafia team?

Well, I already posted my thoughts about Katarina/Reinoe and the Finglove wagon. Here they are again:

At this point I think the most likely mafia is Katarina/Reinoe. And maybe it works in concert with a Katarina and mnemonic scum team, but I just don't think so. Katarina slips onto the Finglove wagon with the next to last vote. She does this after several posts in which she pointed out that she didn't suspect Finglove. The reason she gives for voting Finglove is because Enomis stopped voting Finglove. And even after she settles her vote on the wagon she posts this:

In post 184, Katarina LeBlanc wrote:I could flash wagon on jon, we can probably do that too.

Both Kat/Reinoe and Mafia expressed a lot of suspicion of jon/lia near the end of the Finglove wagon, and they did it in a sort of see-saw way. Not_mafia's very last post before enomis lowers the hammer on finglove is accusing jon of being scum.

And there is Katarina asking for a case and Not_mafia providing it fifteen minutes later. It seems an odd little ballet, especially considering Katarina had already stuck her vote on Finglove, would pine for a flash wagon on jon after she got it, and the timing of the whole thing seems odd.

On the other hand when I was reading the thread initially, and even reading it now I really did think it was the best stating of the case anyone made against Finglove.

[Justin Playfair]

Hi Thor. Here's what I just posted:

Well, I already posted my thoughts about Katarina/Reinoe and the Finglove wagon. Here they are again:

In post 540, Justin Playfair wrote:At this point I think the most likely mafia is Katarina/Reinoe. And maybe it works in concert with a Katarina and mnemonic scum team, but I just don't think so. Katarina slips onto the Finglove wagon with the next to last vote. She does this after several posts in which she pointed out that she didn't suspect Finglove. The reason she gives for voting Finglove is because Enomis stopped voting Finglove. And even after she settles her vote on the wagon she posts this:

In post 184, Katarina LeBlanc wrote:I could flash wagon on jon, we can probably do that too.




Both Kat/Reinoe and Mafia expressed a lot of suspicion of jon/lia near the end of the Finglove wagon, and they did it in a sort of see-saw way. Not_mafia's very last post before enomis lowers the hammer on finglove is accusing jon of being scum.

And there is Katarina asking for a case and Not_mafia providing it fifteen minutes later. It seems an odd little ballet, especially considering Katarina had already stuck her vote on Finglove, would pine for a flash wagon on jon after she got it, and the timing of the whole thing seems odd.

On the other hand when I was reading the thread initially, and even reading it now I really did think it was the best stating of the case anyone made against Finglove.

There's no jon/lia in my mafia team. Just Not_Mafia and Katarina/Reinoe, and their interactions in regard to the jon/lia slot as finglove was being lynched are part of what I find suspicious.

Maybe the confusion is that I did point out that the case Not_Mafia made on Finglove was pretty good. But it was also provided to Katerina/Reinoe after she had voted for finglove, it was put up in fifteen minutes time, and was never commented on by either one of them again.

[Justin Playfair]

I think Enomis was killed exactly because the wolves found his hop awkward.

Which hop, the one off Finglove or his hammer?

[Justin Playfair]

That's because today is when the alignment hunting started

Well, you've misinterpreted what I wrote here, whether unintentionally or not. What is the evidence that I was mafia, or scum of any sort for that matter, that exists from before my "association" with "certain mafia" "mnemonic/thor"?

He is and was my biggest townread. Again, you're overstating my defense of Kat/Reinoe.

Posts in which you defended Katarina (not including those where you joined to press a case on jon/lia cming in to today: 12. You made 47 other posts in total, including 12 no content posts. So 12 just over one quarter of your posts with content. I lefy out today because it might be fair to argue that in part you were arguing over your defense of the Katarina slot today, but the number today is 14-8. I just don't think I'm overstating this, Not_Mafia. I don't think it would be possible to overstate it.

Assuming we don't hit mafia today Thor is the one who will be driving that ship tomorrow. If this is your roundabout way as asking me which read I'm more confident in. It's you.

Oh I don't know about that, Not_Mafia. I mean if we foolishly end up lynching Lia today I can see tomorrow breaking with you making the argument that maybe Justin's mafia with Reinoe, or maybe Justin's mafia with Majiffy, but since Justin's surely mafia let's lynch him (so Reinoe and I can win). I notice that Reinoe's already floating me and Majiffy as scum buddies (which is...insane) so the seed's already in the ground. And it's disingenuous to say Thor would be driving the ship. Thor and your mafia partner would hold two of the three votes necessary to power a lynch.


Oh, and about Majiffy and the Ninja lynch. There was soft pushback, and even that pushback didn't last long, except from me and S and Em. But thank you for making me look back through that, because if I hadn't I wouldn't have noticed this:

VOTE: ninja trigger

being right next to this:

VOTE: ninja trigger

#293 was a bridge too far for newbtown

You and Katarina have just been going everywhere together, haven't you? At least you gave a reason.

Funniest thing about that. I was looking at competing day two wagons and the only other real one was on S & Em. It fell apart when two of it's three votes left at the same time. Let's see, those votes were from...huh...Katarina and you.

[Justin Playfair]

If you are right, on all things, than Justin should manage to worm his way onto that lynch to help his wincon.

You know, at this point I'd be tempted to do that if I thought Lia was mafia, so Majiffy could kill you tonight in the dark embrace of the eventide where the two of you could finally consummate the natural climax you both so clearly crave. But I think Lia's town, and I'd rather win.

[Justin Playfair]

I mean if we

foolishly

end up lynching Lia toda

Explain.

If we foolishly end up lynching Lia, who is town, today.


And Thor, in the post where you hammer Lia, if you choose to do so, please do list your investigative results. I don't want people calling me mafia and wolf tomorrow.

I'm left with joining Lia in voting Reinoe, who is the wrong kind of scum or casting a vote on Majiffy, who is the wolf.

Vote Majiffy

You kill yourself, Thor. Even if I'm wrong about Majiffy, which I really don't think I am, the second most likely wolf is Reinoe, not Lia. I'd missed it until Lia brought it up but the Lulu cannot carry makes no sense as anything other than a seer breadcrumb. One of Lulu's biggest story lines involves her awaking from a cryogenic sleep only to experience a series of visions that allow her to identify the man named Stavros who murdered her beloved Nikolas and locked her into the cryogenic chamber. And damn you Lia, for making me read a General Hospital wiki.

That's a certain sign of skummy behavior of some sort. The only question is what kind. I suspect scum of any stripe would have a decent enough reason to drop a breadcrumb that obscure. Never know when it might come in handy.

[Justin Playfair]

Thor, you're not even reading my posts carefully enough to get the bolded parts right.

[Justin Playfair]

I will agree you are confirmed 'not Wolf' with that play, if it makes you feel any better.

That's odd. Given the way you've behaved since entering I just assumed you already had an investigative flip on me.

Anyway, regardless of what you think I am I want to make this as clear as possible. I would like most of all to lynch Majiffy today, because I think he is the werewolf.

Only under the pressure of deadline would I consider moving to Reinoe, because he would be my second pick for wolf if Majiffy were somehow cleared and at any rate I am sure he is scum. I'd rather today be 1 dead town and 1 dead scum than just 1 dead town.

[Justin Playfair]

That's odd. Given the way you've behaved since entering I just assumed you already had an investigative flip on me.

Why would you assume that?

Because you've never really looked at me for the wolf and you've told me I was mafia about a dozen times. Until you settled on Lia as my partner I was actually afraid you still thought I was your partner, since that was the first time I heard about me being mafia. Before that Reinoe was trying to sell me as wolf for fighting against the Ninja lynch.

[Justin Playfair]

So why would it be odd to have me make the comment that I don't think you're a wolf?

The way you phrased it made it sound like it was something I had just done.

[Justin Playfair]

You had just done what I was commenting about.

So it seemed. Which is why I posted what I did.

[Justin Playfair]

So, really, Justin, if Mafia, should claim, or some other Mafia should claim, because then we can bag wolf pretty easy, and then it's just down to the non-Justin/non-claimed-Mafia to sort the business in a lylo like a man. But, seriously, no one wants that little stinky wolf to win, he's stinky and has been trying to kill us all, and I've never allowed a wolf to win a Jungle Republic I was in yet, and I know we don't want to start now.

First things first. Thor, have you ever played this set-up in a situation where at this point in the game there was a confirmed town? If not please think about how that might make mafia's calculus different from yours, especially if one of them felt he was fairly outed as scummy and that the other was in a far stronger position.

You might also think about Reinoe's Moon logic theory and consider the implications of his presenting one of those.

I also distrust anyone who is still just interested in hitting any old scum today. Hitting any old scum today will almost certainly cost us town's most valuable resource tonight. You know, a confirmed town to carry into the endgame.

@Not_Mafia: Do me a favor. If the wolf was Majiffy and he was interested in clearing town of the people he thought most capable of keeping him from driving town's lynches, who do you think he would kill?

[Justin Playfair]

@Justin - an additional theoretical. You think Majiffy is the wolf. You think that Lia is town. That means both Mafia (N_M and Reinoe) are voting for Lia. Why do you think they're making such a poor move and if one of them claimed would you sheep them onto Lia?

Poor move? I'd think it's their optimal one. If Lia did turn out to be the wolf they would figure they could either push through a lynch of me tomorrow, which would win them the game, or that a wolf Majiffy, if he decided to risk it and go for mafia tonight, would kill me, which would mean they'd win without having to touch their keyboards again. Everything in thread would point them toward thinking that was true.

[Justin Playfair]

Hi Thor.

Here are my thoughts. I didn't want to share them clearly yesterday because I was still hoping you might get a mafia claim, but we're backing up to deadline. Feel free to call them dumb when I'm finished, but I surely do not think they are.

I think you're wrong about what the mafia's doing. The calculation is fundamentally different because you are confirmed town. If they followed your suggestion they wouldn't be fighting it out in a three person finale. There would only be two possible scum there.

If mafia claims and werewolf is lynched they enter tomorrow effectively down three to one, because the mafia who claimed will be lynched. And they just don't face a three to one disadvantage, they do so with a confirmed town in the mix who will certainly live to endgame.

If mafia claims and town is lynched the werewolf will kill the claimed mafia. Mafia enters tomorrow down one to two to one, with one confirmed town. Even if the werewolf is successfully lynched mafia still finds itself in an endgame with one confirmed town. If town is lynched mafia loses, killed unerringly by the wolf during the night because the remaining town is confirmed.

If mafia doesn't claim and the werewolf is lynched they are both free to push a mislynch tomorrow, with two unconfirmed targets to choose from and two of the three votes needed to lynch to get it. If they get it they win.

If mafia doesn't claim and town is lynched the werewolf might or might not chance a night kill. The wolf would have a two in three shot of getting mafia. If the wolf misses mafia wins. If the wolf hits the mafia are in no worse shape than they would be in the second of the two claiming scenarios.

Now all of the above is undeniable. It is simply the numbers of the situation we find ourselves in. Of the above the optimal play for mafia is to lynch the werewolf without claiming. Confirmed town makes the difference here, and the reduced chance of a werewolf who survived today missing mafia is still better than that werewolf having a confirmed target. Even if the werewolf did hit an unclaimed mafia tonight, and avoided being lynched tomorrow, tomorrow night would still present the wolf with a dilemma as to who it should kill and a wrong choice would hand mafia the win.

But there is a third scenario here. Mafia does not claim and mafia gets lynched today. If this happens wolf will kill confirmed town tonight. The situation is then one two one tomorrow without a confirmed town. Wolf will try to trick town into lynching mafia. Mafia will try to work with town to find the wolf. If the wolf is lynched mafia will go into the last day with a true three way lylo. If town is lynched wolf will have a shot at killing mafia but without a confirmed town and so with a chance of missing. If mafia is lynched, of course, the wolf would win.

I feel certain as I can that Reinoe and Not_Mafia are the mafia. I think they both voted Lia with the thought that if she was the wolf they could push through a lynch on me tomorrow. Either Lia would flip town and they'd have either a fair chance of Mjaiffy killing me, or if Majiffy decided to stay in, tomorrow they could make me Majiffy's partner or maybe Reinoe's partner (but, Not_mafia would say bravely, I'm more sure about Justin, so I'm going to vote him)...or Lia would flip wolf and I could still get a new partner. Probably not Not_Mafia's though. He's the cleaner, slicker one.

But I think their second option would be to get the dirtier of their pair lynched today. It would assure the removal from town of the Seer, and leave them with a chance to aid in the lynch of the werewolf tomorrow, with a clean lylo ahead, or at worst putting themselves into the hands of the wolf with no confirmed town for the wolf to avoid.

Reinoe's dirty as can be. He is scum, so the only question left is whether he's wolf or mafia. The Lulu Can't Carry was obviously a fake breadcrumb. One of Lulu's big storylines (I read her whole wiki entry on the General Hospital wiki) involved her awaking from a cryogenic sleep and having a series of visions in which her memory returned which led her to identify the killer of her boyfriend and the person who put her in the cryogenic sleep. It makes no sense in any other context.

I know, Not_Mafia, sometimes Katarina suffered bouts of delirium during which she would post bits of soap opera trivia.

But here's the thing. Reinoe has posted moon logic a good four times now. He's drawn attention to the phrase in every way he can, and even though he called it moonlogic he then posted majiffy and I as mafia in his actual read. I mean, if you're going to identify Reinoe as scum, and I most certainly do, that would be some pretty brazen wording for a werewolf. But it makes a certain sense as a mafia play. Reinoe knows he looks dirty. But if we go in to tomorrow with the wolf still loose we have to lynch mafia. That's not likely to be not_mafia, though I think he's Reinoe's partner. But it could certainly be Reinoe. And what better way for a player who seems pretty scummy to make sure he doesn't get lynched as mafia than to be identified as the wolf?

And you know, Reinoe's posting has been pretty cool today. He's controlled his tone pretty well. But not here:

You might also think about Reinoe's Moon logic theory and consider the implications of his presenting one of those.

Really? That's quite a smug insinuation to make. If your theories and arguments are so sound then why haven't you solved this game?

I've still got nothing I'd like to share yet.

I have some insane moonlogic for who I think the two mafia are, but since it's moonlogic I'm putting it in spoilers. This theory was so wonky I said I wasn't willing to share it but this game is starting to enter bizarro world so maybe moonlogic will help solve it...

Also why don't you stop spreading paranoia and go out and say what you really want to say? At least I had the decency to admit I was using moonlogic, instead of spouting off garbage and trying to pass it off as credible.

You know, it almost reads like he knew what I was going to post.

Anyway, my vote's on Majiffy because I think he's the wolf. I think the night kills make more sense for a Majiffy wolf than anyone else and that wagoning a player like Ninja was a far more useful in guaranteeing a wolf win than keeping him around.

[Justin Playfair]

Not voting lia means I want to catch scum today, and voting you means I want to catch the wolf most of all.

[Justin Playfair]

I want Majiffy because I think Majiffy's the wolf. I will vote Reinoe only as a last resort and only because I believe lynching mafia is better than lynching no scum at all.

[Justin Playfair]

Either way, I guess, Thor dies tonight. Still time today to lynch the actual wolf, though. The first night kills only really make sense for Majiffy-wolf. Not_mafia is overplaying the resistance to the Ninja lynch, which would be pretty obvious to anyone reading the day in thread, and disregards the very simple calculus of how Ninja could best serve the wolf cause. And the answer to that would have been by dying. That would have been as true to me as it was to Majiffy.

Yeah, Not_Mafia, I've thought a lot about the wolf's motivations and strategy to victory, too. Thor, if you want to be alive tomorrow vote Majiffy. Not_Mafia, really, it's okay. You're not going to give yourself away by putting your vote on the wolf.

[Justin Playfair]

Okay. I'll be away from my computer for a few minutes but I'll be back before deadline. But since this is what Thor wanted I'll wait until as close to deadline as possible before hammering, if my hammering is called for.

[Justin Playfair]

Not_Mafia.

If Reinoe is wolf he has just lost the game.

If Majiffy should flip mafia we will know Reinoe lied and lynch him tomorrow.
If Majiffy should flip town and the wolf does not kill Reinoe tonight then Reinoe is the wolf.
We couold ask Thor to investigate Reinoe tonight as well, if he so wished, and you think there is any other room for error.

[Justin Playfair]

Not if Majiffy is the wolf. And not if Majiffy is town. And if Majiffy is mafia then Reinoe will most certainly die in the morning.

[Justin Playfair]

These are the ONLY possibilities. There is no other. What are you even doing here?

[Justin Playfair]

I'll hammer rather than let us no-lynch, but this is not what we should be doing. It's better than not getting scum at all, but it doesn't make sense.

[Justin Playfair]

Ummm...your 777 is the opposite of everything Thor has set up. And though it agrees with something I posted earlier, at that time Thor said it was stupid and I don't recall anyone agreeing with me.

[Justin Playfair]

I love you, Not_Mafia.

It's always the right time to tell someone you love them. Well...almost.

[Justin Playfair]

Man, all the work I did to get the seer to investigate me and mnemonic didn't even do it?

[Justin Playfair]

Hey, that was ballsy as could be. And if the move had been on Lia instead of Majiffy you might even have pulled it off.

[Justin Playfair]

As should be clear in the mafia qt I was absolutely convinced you were the wolf. Had been for awhile.

[Justin Playfair]

And Lia, let me apologize profusely for saying you couldn't pull cases out of your behind. That Lulu thing you did was just incredible. Before then I didn't care if you were the wolf or not, I was just defending you because I wanted to either lynch Majiffy or no-lynch and get Thor killed during the night, but after that I also really believed you were town.

And hey, you would have been crazy not to go for the Reinoe kill. I would have, if I'd been you.

[Justin Playfair]

That's winner JustinMafia to you, Majiffy.

Nah, seriously I thought Not_Mafia would be the one going to endgame and I didn't want you and Thor both there. I knew if we could lynch you Thor could tell us who the wolf was. I did think it was Reinoe at the time, but I didn't want to lynch him either. I wanted to lynch you, because then you would be dead, leaving Not_Mafia as the towniest townie in townieville for Thor to take with him.

Whether Reinoe flipped town or wolf didn't matter, because it would reveal the truth to me and Not_Mafia. Even if Lia had gotten lucky and killed one of us (which admittedly Reinoe made all but impossible), it should have been possible for either me or Not_Mafia to get her lynched the next day and after that Reinoe looked too scummy not to be the last mafia.

No, for us winning depended on either lynching you, which was by far the more preferable outcome, or forcing a no-lynch and letting the wolf take Thor. Would have been far too long a shot for either of us to win in lylo with both of you there and Thor confirmed town.

We weren't playing for second place.