Mafia 60: Face-to-Face - Game over!

[Thesp]

Vote: AndrewS.

Glork is clearly pro-town.

[Thesp]

Hmm. It looks like someone came in and changed all those votes for AndrewS into votes for me. I demand that we look into the possibility that AndrewS is a mafia hacker who has been given admin privledges and can go in and change other people's posts.

[Thesp]

I don't think his suggestion makes it more likely he's scum.

Interesting. The last time I made that suggestion about someone who had experience and was suggesting No Lynch, I was wrong. My vote's been justified.

[Thesp]

Alright, alright...Guess I'll explain. I voted no lynch and said that in order to get peoples' reactions. Many times, by doing or saying something unexpected, you can learn a lot from simple reactions...And while I haven't gotten anything concrete from it, I do believe that I have sort of a feel for who to watch for. Not enough for a vote, mind you, just sort of a feeling for it.

Good job with the persistent waffling after your scumalicious move, and for getting ChannelDelibird to out himself as your partner.

FOS: ChannelDelibird

.

[Thesp]

As for what information I gathered, I was hoping to see who was lynch-hungry.

Are you implying that this information was unavailable at the time? :rolleyes:

Thanks for the quote in your sig, though.

I'm still unsure as to what sort of benefit Andrew would be gaining by suggesting no lynch if he were scum. Can one of his attackers explain this to me please.

In my experience, scum tend to suggest "no lynch" more than town do, perhaps because it eliminates an early voting record (sometimes it's hard to go after a non-scum in a game where you're scum), or for who knows what reason. Regardless of justification, it tends to be somethings scum do more frequently (yes, town does it too, but not as often, I believe).

I've never ever seen scum suggest no lynch, especially a non-newbie scum.

Here's at least one example. See ambic, who is experienced, is scum, and suggests no lynch. He gets out of the lynch largely because few think scum would do that. We were wrong.

[Thesp]

As for the speed of the bandwagon, those were the reactions that I was looking to get. I wanted to see who was going to try to inconspicuously hop on, or push for an early "sure lynch".

This is pretty blatantly an attempt to discredit current and potential voters from voting you,

even if they have legitimate reasons

, and is scummy to the core. I am super happy with my vote. AndrewS should be lynched, ChannelDelibird should be vigged.

[Thesp]

Incidentally, if there is a vig in this game, he's pretty powerful and should kill every night (or at the very least, tonight).

[Thesp]

Thesp - considering that I know that I am town beyond the shadow of a doubt, is that not a logical suggestion for me to make?

Are you arguing that townspeople cannot have legitimate reasons for voting for someone else who is town? That would be fairly close to the pinnacle of an irrational argument.

[Thesp]

No, I am saying that from my viewpoint I believe many of the ones voting me to be scum because I find their logic and arguments spurious. Take CES, for example. He has justified his votes 4 times now by saying "Lynch X, it'll be fun!". These were not just in the random votes stage.

How is this any different than how CES always acts? You haven't provoked anything except justified voters.

If someone were to attack you (assuming you are town), you would find their arguments to be illogical as well.

This is also false. They may be justified/warranted in their arguments, even if they are incorrect. Suppose someone was "Townie A". On D2, they claimed Cop and fingered a player as guilty. On D3, they claimed they were actually only townie the whole time and lied on the prior day. Would "Townie B" be justified and logical in voting for them? According to your argument, they would not be. This is whole approach you've taken is what's known in, in technical terms, as a

crap post hoc justification

. You make a move more likely to be done by scum (with the simplest explanation being you are more likely to

be

scum), and try to justify it in whatever way you can after the fact. I cannot imagine my vote moving at this point.

[Thesp]

When I'm lynched and turn up town, you all might want to do some serious reconsideration of a few people.

= also something more frequently said by scum than town

[Thesp]

The initial attack on AndrewS was that a no-lynch would hurt the town. It's been pointed out that a no-lynch wouldn't actually happen.

I think you are missing the whole point of the argument, as this is entirely mis-stated.

The question is not, "Could this affect the lynch for the day?", it's "Why is he voting No Lynch?" His motivations are not necessarily equivalent with the expected outcome.

[Thesp]

Thesp: You have a problem in your logic: You assume that my intentions follow my vote, and that I intended for the town to go no lynch.

No. I am not assuming your intentions, I am making an excellent educated guess as to whatthey were based on your actions. I'm fairly explicit in stating that I do not care whether you intended the town to go no lynch, and believe its more likely you wouldn't think it would go no lynch whether you are town or scum. I think lynching you will be the only way to stop you fom continuing to spew crap.

Why aren't more people voting for AndrewS?

[Thesp]

If I was scum, and I knew that I wouldn't be able to convince town to go no lynch, what would I profit from suggesting it? If you accept the fact that I did not expect the town to go no lynch, you must logically assume that I had another reason for voting it. What do you suppose that reason was?

I suspect you might have thought it would allow you to look helpful, and turn the town into meaningless discussions about no-lynch D1 rather than scum-hunting. It's also perfectly logical and rational to claim that I don't know why scum perform

X

more often than town do, and still assert that my experience is that scum more often do

X

than town do. Once again, your attack fails a basic logic class.

There is no defensible way that you can say that you thought that I didn't believe the town would go no lynch yet am still mafia.

You say this, but still scum seem to do that. Perhaps you can tell me why this is after the game.

unvote, Vote: Ether for as mentioned a few posts above, she seems a little too attached to Andrew with an aparant view that he cant really do wrong.

This will definitely be worth looking at tomorrow. Why are you deflecting the AndrewS lynch? If you're scum, it would be very nice for you to follow ChannelDelibird's lead and bus your partner.

[Thesp]

I think for Ether to be scummy though, Andrew would need to be scum. Especially with her trying to shoot down the wagon and not seeing the wifom on his defense. Seriously.

Actually, I would think the opposite, as scum rarely defend their partners so openly. However, scum tend to have no problem vehemently defending a townie as innocent, particularly when they know they are correct.

[Thesp]

Awesome. MrBuddyLee is the final scum. If we have a vig, we can win by tomorrow.

[Thesp]

ChannelDelibird.

[Thesp]

He recommended Nightfall follow CDB's lead and bus AndrewS. To me that implies he thinks Nightfall is scum.

I wasn't sure who the third scum was. I did indeed suggest if Nigthfall was scum, he should follow CDB's lead. It turns out MBL is the third scum, though, not Nightfall. I have an alternate theory, but both involve AndrewS as scum.

[Thesp]

Zindaras: it's pretty easy to get a read on Thesp. Just follow him blindly. If the town's losing, he's probably scum. If you just won the game, well, then he's probably town.

This is probably the highest compliment I've been paid in a mafia game. I'm flattered!

[Thesp]

This day is going on waaaaaaay too long.

[Thesp]

Hmm. spectrumvoid has been defensive of AndrewS. Nope, still rather see AndrewS swing.

[Thesp]

AS: let me paraphrase that post for you.

- I think Glork could or could not be scummy, but I have no idea why.
- I think SV is scummy, but again I have no idea why.
- I think IH is scummy too, but less, and again I have no idea why.
- So let's all discuss and hopefully other people will give me reasons so I can lynch them.

This made me laugh so much kristocker made me tell her what I was laughing about. It didn't translate as well, but I appreciated it.

spectrumvoid, why are you just giving AndrewS advice on how not to look scummy and not voting to lynch him?

[Thesp]

MGM, nobody thought that Glork was serious. Nobody other than you. This shows that you weren't reading the game. That is why I was voting for you.

Why weren't you voting for someone you thought was scum?

[Thesp]

Thesp: As I explained when I made it, it was a prod to start reading the game. Since then, I've been holding my vote in case I needed to hammer in order to beat a deadline.

Which is awesome when several people do that. In fact, it makes it hard for someone to get to the point of hammertization when people hold back their votes. I'm adding this to the "list of crap spewed forth from the mouth of AndrewS this game" tally.

[Thesp]

Thesp: As I explained when I made it, it was a prod to start reading the game. Since then, I've been holding my vote in case I needed to hammer in order to beat a deadline.

Which is awesome when several people do that. In fact, it makes it hard for someone to get to the point of hammertization when people hold back their votes. I'm adding this to the "list of crap spewed forth from the mouth of AndrewS this game" tally.

Looking back, I think this post is unnecessarily harsh. I do not mean for this to be personal. I just don't think its a good idea at all.

[Thesp]

Thesp, what do you think of SV's paraphrases of some of Andrew's posts?

I find them very funny.

[Thesp]

Thesp, what do you think of SV's paraphrases of some of Andrew's posts?

I find them very funny.

Do you find them scummy?

In and of themselves, not particularly.

[Thesp]

In and of themselves, not particularly.

So you don't think that this:

Another Andrew paraphrase: I've been holding my vote because I want a chance to bus my scumbuddy and look innocent tomorrow.

looks the least bit propagandic or falsely incriminating?

Perhaps. It's still hysterical, and I did think the holding on to the vote was awesomeness.

Clearly, spectrumvoid will not make it to the endgame, and/or will be proven very shortly.

spectrumvoid is a terrible lynch at this point. Everyone should be moving off of him. Now.

I think he should vig ChannelDelibird, personally.

[Thesp]

In that case I see no reason for SV not to reveal his target.

If the scum get to see who spectrumvoid will NK, and know it's not one of their own, they could deliberately no-kill to try and force a mislynch of spectrumvoid. Without letting them know, they must operate in the dark, and almost certainly must kill tonight, allowing sv to be more provable.

[Thesp]

Thesp, why haven't you expressed an opinion on MGM? His play's noteworthy.

Sorry, I saw one thing and defaulted my thinking of him to being town, lemme check...

Hmm. I'm fairly uncertain on him, and I don't find him nearly as exciting a candidate as a number of other people. Confused players tend to be townies, and I only have slight caveat against this. I'm also still not convinced spectrumvoid ought to commit to her target now, as AndrewS's alignment makes a big difference on everyone's alignment, and I'd be fine if she changed her mind.

[Thesp]

If I'm reading the thread correctly, there are over two days left until the deadline. To call it anti-town because a vig announced that IH was her target next night is bull.

It's anti-town, because it can only lead to rushed decisions. Your vote is not in any way useful.

Agreed. You might as well vote for no one, which woud be just as unhelpful.

[Thesp]

Looks like I was wrong yesterday. Time to re-read.

[Thesp]

FoS: Thesp

Pro-town Thesp is

NEVER

wrong! >=[

I wish.

[Thesp]

Thesp, I want to hear from you soon. I want you to answer my previous question, and I'd like you to comment on a handful of players at the core of the discussion. I'd also like you to address MBL's theory head-on. It interests me, though it's not really why I've got you on my list.

Sorry, my missing days is starting to snowball on me. Presuming this is the question you are referring to:

EDIT: Actually, I just found something that I really don't like about Thesp. His "This day has gone on waaaaaaaaay too long" comment (Post 256) came a mere nine days after the start of Day One (Fri, Jan 26 to Sun, Feb 04). Thesp, would you mind explaining why you think slightly over a week makes a day that's "way too long"?

I think after a certain amount of time (usually better measured by posts than real time), most of the useful stuff gets buried by inanity. I think extremely long days tend to

hurt

the town rather than help it. As far as MBL's theory...

Voted Andrew, never moved it. Pushed it aggressively. Created a list of four and advocated a vig of the most "useless" one in this game. A lot of overt manipulation and leading of the town. Most notably, though he was pushy about his theories and his scumlist, he didn't try to derail the IH vig even though IH wasn't on his scumlist. Looks like scum happy with the bad vig decision, making a minimal alternate vig suggestion without really trying to make it happen. Aggressive when it suits, passive when it suits.

...

The sheer amount of unusual attention paid to a Thespwagon D1 leads me to believe it was part of a scum strategy discussed N0. Whether or not Thesp was a part of it, it looks like scum saw the benefit in it, and if they didn't plan it ahead of time, it looks like some followed each others' leads in making it a notable D1 event.

vote: Thesp, mafia godfather recklessly unafraid of investigation N1 and drawing attention away from his babes of doom.

It's an...unusual...theory, which seems to put the cart before the horse. Notably, in his post of thoughts on the game, it includes mutually contradictory theories, which are perfectly natural in and of themselves (who hasn't been conflicted about who's scum?), but a number of them expect me not to be scum. The idea that there was a "sheer amount of unusual attention paid to a Thespwagon D1" is intriguing, but I find unmoving, particularly since the most vocal pusher of the wagon I recall was CES, who doesn't receive an FOS. (I'm also not sure what benefit a deliberate D1 Thespwagon would achieve, as its defined randomness is hardly worth a cop investigation, which are more properly reserved for lurkers and the like.) I do agree I didn't fight hard enough against the IH vig, though I contest IH should not have been vigged, nor should spectrumvoid have revealed her target in the first place.

I still find ChannelDelibird disconcerting. I need to examine the voting patterns D1 still.

[Thesp]

So, just to be crystla clear: Nine days is "extremely long," in your opinion?

I thought I explicitly mentioned it's usually better understood by posts than real time, and here there was already plenty of substance. It seems to me that the prolonged day only served to out a power role before ending the day with the already-headed-towards AndrewS lynch, correct?

[Thesp]

Actually, I don't really think

any

of the current votees are more likely to be scum. I'm still very leery of ChannelDelibird, and if I had my druthers, he'd be the one to swing.

Vote: ChannelDelibird.

I don't understand where MrBuddyLee is in all this, and I don't have strong pro-townness from him. Zindaras gives me odd vibes, and I'm not fond of Nightfall. That leaves my top 3 suspects at ChannelDelibird, Zindaras and Nightfall (though I could substitute MBL in there, probably in Nightfall's spot), but even that setup is fairly tenuous. I will admit that some of this is based on the sense that most of the people vocally arguing are townies, and I suspect that scum are simply fueling that fire rather than getting in the way.

[Thesp]

EBWOP: Why am I scum, Thesp?

Reasons stated. It's not a lot, but I don't feel like there's a lot on

anyone

at this point. Your posts seem odd to me. I will ponder if there's a better way to express my senses later.

[Thesp]

Thesp, are you the type of player who asks people tough questions to learn their alignment, or do you more typically lay back and wait for them to incriminate themselves?

Cause I'm not seeing a whole lot of curiosity from you.

Depends. When I think the questions will be helpful, I ask them. When I think silence is better, I respond appropriately. I could give a deeper analysis of what I think my playstyle is, but I'm already sabotaged by my own presuppositions, and by the fact that I could just as easily be lying to you.

How about you?

[Thesp]

Thesp: why aren't you voting for Glrok?

I don't think he's more likely to be scum than the others I've mentioned are.

Why aren't you voting for ChannelDelibird?

[Thesp]

I just see Thesp as curiously passive today. Does no one else notice this?

I think it happens quite frequently when my foundations get shaken. I've gone from being pretty darn certain AndrewS was scum to being incredibly wrong.

Also, MrBuddyLee, why aren't you voting for ChannelDelibird?

[Thesp]

Thesp: why aren't you voting for Glrok?

I don't find the case against him that compelling. Also, I think scum would be less likely to parody the reason a townie is being run up on votes.

I seriously don't like the way Thesp's playing. I don't feel he's contributing to the game.

I agree. I feel like I've fallen dow on my duties.

I'm still most uncomfortable with ChannelDelibird, particular with his actions D1 (following a townie's bandwagon with support and little other contribution, and deliberately not reacting to something he knew was to elicit reaction). His D2 play is consistent with how I would expect scum to play had they been lurkish on D2 and trying to make up for it. I am trying to ascertain if it would be consistent with townie play, and I don't feel like it is.

This is probably the strangest set of interactive suspicions I have ever seen. It actually makes me wonder if maybe the Mafia is just sitting back and letting a bunch of townies rip each other apart.

I have definitely felt this way.

Thesp, you asked why I wasn't voting CDB, which is a bold, somewhat manipulative question for you to ask considering I'm currently voting for you.

It helps me figure out player interactions. It's a new tactic I've been using.

I still don't buy the case against MGM, either. I'm much happier seeing CDB run up today.

[Thesp]

You mean I should have gotten defensive and let you wagon me for overreacting?

Why would defensiveness be the only other reaction? I can imagine a number of other conceivable reactions which would all be valid. I'm intrigued by your need to avoid reaction entirely.

Then how exactly would you expect a townie to play if they had been lurkish on D1 and trying to make up for it on D2?

This is an excellent question, and one I am not certain I have the answer of. Your response didn't seem to fit that for me.

I still think your silence on D1 while a townie was being run up (which you'd put your vote on early, then did not detract from nor push for) is notable, and I'm surprised no one else is jumping on it.

Thesp's playing either really sucky or he's just plain scum. Pretty much everything he's said Day 1 was built on "AndrewS is scum". He hasn't really said anything Day 2.

I agree. I was really sure AndrewS was scum.

As for my reasons for suspecting MgM. The first paragraph you quoted from me was a fair summing up of my feeling on him day 1. I did say he had made some odd posts/not paid attention, but you're quite right, those are not very strong things, which is why I wasn't especially suspicious of him day 1.

Do you think a lack of attention paid to posts is more consistent with scum?

At any rate, I trust Mgm at this time.

I concur with this.

I'm also fairly uncomfortable with Patrick, but I'm happiest with a ChannelDelibird lynch.

[Thesp]

Do you think a lack of attention paid to posts is more consistent with scum?

Why not read what you actually quoted from me there? Then you'd see the answer.

It wasn't terribly clear. Unless you clarify, I'll suppose the ambiguity implies that you'd prefer to leave it as either nebulous or as a null tell (as in it doesn't indicate anything). Next question: Do you think a lack of attention paid to posts is more consistent with being town?

[Thesp]

I still think your silence on D1 while a townie was being run up (which you'd put your vote on early, then did not detract from nor push for) is notable, and I'm surprised no one else is jumping on it.

I doubt that CDB is the only one who was silent Day One.

That makes it right, then.

What I find disconcerting is that he jumped on a bandwagon of a townie, then contributed nothing to continue the bandwagon nor anything to dissuade it. He contributed practically nothing except his vote. I haven't seen that from anyone else, if you'd like to point it out on someone, I'd love to see it, as they'd be worth looking at, too.

[Thesp]

To be clear then, I'm not pushing a case against MgM based on weird day one posts/not paying attention. As I said before, that wasn't terribly suspicious in my eyes. Some ppl argue that scum are less likely to pay attention, but I'm not sure about that. If it's a scum tell, it's a weak one at best.

Who argues this? Do you?

[Thesp]

I've seen MBL argue it in certain games (he said something like scum are more likely to waltz through and miss nuances). I also remember IH doing a 'not paying attention' count for mgm and voting mgm so I suppose he argues it as well. I said my last post that I'm not sure about this argument.

So your tossing out suggestions that its suspicious, but but distancing yourself from saying it's suspicious?

FOS: Patrick.

I'd be happy to switch my vote to him if necessary.

For the record, I think confusion is far more likely to be exhibited by town.

[Thesp]

There's a certain type of "confusion" that's a hallmark of scum, and it's typically the product of a careless read. Those dirty little bastards don't need to read at all to figure out who scum are, and their skims leave telltale signs.

This is an interesting thought. I've not noticed this behavior before, but it seems very plausible.

The people he mentions are the ones arguing the "not paying attention" argument as you requested. He just answered the question you posed. First asking a question and then misinterpreting the answer to say something it doesn't, is pretty scummy in my book. FOS: Thesp

Ah, but that's the thing: I didn't ask him to explain the situation around his confusion, I aked Patrick if

he

thought confusion was more likely to be from scum or town. He

didn't

"just answer the question" I posed. Let's look at the questions posed:

Do you think a lack of attention paid to posts is more consistent with scum?

...

Next question: Do you think a lack of attention paid to posts is more consistent with being town?

Look at his response, which is more concerned with his response to Mgm rather than the question posed:

To be clear then, I'm not pushing a case against MgM based on weird day one posts/not paying attention. As I said before, that wasn't terribly suspicious in my eyes.

Some ppl argue that scum are less likely to pay attention, but I'm not sure about that.

If it's a scum tell, it's a weak one at best.

Without the struck-through quote, he's answered the question of whether or not he thinks it's a scum tell. I don't think the addition of the struck through sentence, "Some ppl argue that scum are less likely to pay attention, but I'm not sure about that", is accidental -

he's trying to add extra suspicion on Mgm

. Why bother adding that sentence? He's already made his point.

Don't think for a second that speech is accidental.

Do you care about finding scum? Not that I can see. You seem instead very eager on arguing with Pat here over precisely nothing.

I don't think it's nothing. And I do think I've found two scum: ChannelDelibird and Patrick.

[Thesp]

"Bad" players will be confused as both town and scum. Moderate scumtell.

If they do it as both, how's it a scumtell at all?

That extra sentence was just part of the answer. You asked me something which is really just general mafia theory, I said I think XXX but I've heard other ppl argue XXX.

No, it wasn't part of the answer, and it's not what I asked you. I asked, "Do you think a lack of attention paid to posts is more consistent with scum/town?" Instead of giving your thoughts, you brought in other perspectives which weren't otherwise relevant, and designed to throw suspicion onto Mgm. It's akin to this exchange:

Q: Do you think Professor Plum killed Mr. X?
A: Well, some people would say the bloody knife he was caught with would indicate he killed him, but I'm not sure if he killed Mr. X or not.

I'd happily lynch either ChannelDelibird or Patrick.

[Thesp]

Q: Do you think Professor Plum killed Mr. X?
A: Well, some people would say the bloody knife he was caught with would indicate he killed him, but I'm not sure if he killed Mr. X or not.

Seems perfectly reasonable to me.

Really? Hmm.

That's a really leading example; a bloody knife is bloody good evidence (reasonable man clause) the confusion much more quesitonable.

I agree that it's exaggerated to illustrate a point. What do you think of Patrick's consent to the validity of the exaggerated model?

[Thesp]

If Thesp is pro-town, Adele and MGM are

so

dying next.

Why? ChannelDelibird and Patrick are the scums.

[Thesp]

Thesp, can you please elaborate on your four "suspicions" for day one, how you arrived at them so easily, and why you picked just one to stick with so completely and drive home to lynch? Were your other suspicions genuine, and if so, why?

This is a fairly substantial project you're asking for. Let's provide an abstract to work from in its stead. I end to find suspicions easily on D1, because the bar for suspicion is much lower, and you have basic hunches & tells to work from and to use to elicit reactions to help judge how people act in relation to each other. My other suspicions (of ChannelDelibird and MrBuddyLee) were indeed genuine (and still held to varying extents). I pursued AndrewS doggedly because I was certain he was scum. I was clearly wrong.

If I had reacted to your continuous claims that I was scum, my reaction would have been along the lines of "WTF? You're accusing me for no reason". Your 'accusations' looked to me like scum trying to deliberately incite a defensive reaction, so I was pretty sure that if I did react, you'd have pounced on it.

Why would the only possible reaction be defensive, as you seem to imply here? What was it about my "accusations" that made them appear to be scum trying to incite reactions rather than town trying to get reactions?

Yeah, well, excuse me for dismissing this as vague unsubstantiated scumposting.

I understad you dismissing my thoughts (though I disagree with you, obv), I do object to the characterization here.

They're not jumping on it because

you

were

pushing it, with gusto. That's scummier, IMO.

Why are scum more likely to be adamant and vocal? My experience has been the

opposite

, particularly because scum know the particular wagon-victim is town, want to push it along, but don't want to be associated too strongly with it. Your behavior D1 is consistent with this.

No, but it makes it weird that you're singling me out.

Who else was silent on Day 1? Please jumpstart my potentially-faulty memory and help us identify others who were doing as such, so we can question them as well. Otherwise, I would have presume this statement is taking an unsubstantiated cheap shot at me.

Thesp is suspicious, there's no better reason to join a wagon. My vote on you wasn't going anywhere, so I had to switch. Voting Ether would be kind of pointless. If he's away, he's not going to defend himself and I dislike lynching non-responsive people unless I'm very sure they're scum.

Voting Thesp was the only logical thing for me to do.

I respectfully disagree on all counts. Why didn't you ask for Ethere's prod/replacement, rather than just concede, "oh well, he's not going to respond anyway, I'm fine with no information", as it seems you've done?

Then were the votes that were made on Mgm because of his confusion seen as "scummy" to you?

I intended to answer this question, but it appears I have not. Inherently, no, as I can easily conceive of town as being misguided on that point. (Or conceivably correct on that point, and myself incorrect.)

Glrok, hop on the wagon! If, for some reason, he comes up town, you'll have lots of juicy info on Mgm and Adele. It's win-win.

This is a very suspect/dangerous attitude.

FOS: Cogtio Ergo Sum.

CES: You do realize your behavior today is identical to the D1 behavior of Thesp, the guy you're trying to get lynched.

I disagree with this assessment.

[Thesp]

CES: You do realize your behavior today is identical to the D1 behavior of Thesp, the guy you're trying to get lynched.

I disagree with this assessment.

Still got me on the brain

Whoops.

[Thesp]

Glrok, hop on the wagon! If, for some reason, he comes up town, you'll have lots of juicy info on Mgm and Adele. It's win-win.

This is a very suspect/dangerous attitude.

FOS: Cogtio Ergo Sum.

Although my comment wasn't really serious, I'll ask you to state the problem you have with that type of attitude. After all, hypothetically, if a mislynch were to give us two scums, then the lynch would certainly have been in the town's interest.

You're taking quite a leap to suggest such a mislynch would assure the correct lynch of two scums. The "dangerous attitude" is that it's okay to be wrong about a lynch of an innocent, as it would give some even better reward, all the while failing to demonstrate how said lynch would indeed obtain said reward. You're dangling a carrot that can't be gotten. That's bad.

[Thesp]

I recognize that it's more or less joking, but it sortof feels like you were hoping that I'd take the bait anyway. Even insinuating that we should lynch to try to set up two futrure lynches sets off my scumdar pretty hardcore. FoS: CES

I agree with the sentiment of this thought, though not on the "set up two future lynches" part.

This is from the post where I voted him. Prior to this I'd been reading and rereading, but this comment stood out as an example of someone looking to make trouble/have a discussion when I have real trouble believing he found anything genuinely suspicious/ discussionworthy in the orginal post (Pat's).
The analogy he presented to back up his case was a strawman. Just... "picking people out to try to undermine and then searching for something that can be twisted into problematic-y", rather than scum-huntery.

I could have sworn I'd acknowledged that the case was an exaggeration, and I'd explained how my FOS of him wasn't for "Explaning both sides of an argument" (which you had actually strawmanned

me

on), yet you're bringing it up again. That's odd. I also saw this which I've neglected to follow up on:

That's a really leading example; a bloody knife is bloody good evidence (reasonable man clause) the confusion much more quesitonable.

I agree that it's exaggerated to illustrate a point. What do you think of Patrick's consent to the validity of the exaggerated model?

I didn't interpret his response as agreement that your analogy was valid; I saw him consider the repsonse within the example valid, which is a different thing.

What did you think of his acceptance of the model I presented as a reasonable one? You interpreted his response as I did (though perhaps that didn't come across clearly enough in how I asked it of you), what do you think of it?

[Thesp]

Did we interpret it the same way? I'm not convinced; you still seem to think that he considered the "model" reasonable, I think he thought the action of one person within it reasonable.

That was how I understood it, that given the following exchange...

Q: Do you think Professor Plum killed Mr. X?
A: Well, some people would say the bloody knife he was caught with would indicate he killed him, but I'm not sure if he killed Mr. X or not.

...

A

's response is not scummy. Patrick, is that how you understand it?

Given that,

what do you think of Patrick's assessment? (I think it's patently absurd to think

A

's response is not scummy.)

Why the vitrol, Adele? You accused me of trying to make something of nothing, this sounds a whole lot like you're doing that with me.

[Thesp]

Hrm. This is all getting in the way of ChannelDelibird's scumminess.

[Thesp]

I feel a lot like I'm Nadering here, but I still fee like ChannelDelibird deserves more attention here, particularly since he's reverted to not posting again.

Yuck.

[Thesp]

I think Stoofs is telling us to lynch Thesp.

I sure hope you're kidding.

[Thesp]

anyone want to run up adele so thesp isn't lynched?

im looking at you thesp

I'd go for Adele over me.

CES and Thesp, you never REALLY answered my question, so I'll restate: how do you see Thesp D1 and CES D2 behavior differing?

Sorry, I missed it then. I gave reasons for my votes on Patrick. I would recommend you review CES's approach to my lynching. While they equate in fervor, they differ in substance.

Town should not be calling for someone to die so repeatedly and vehemently on such a lack of basis.

What do you think of Cogito Ergo Sum? A cursory scan of your posts shows no substantive pressure on him, yet his activity in the thread would epitomize the idea you're putting forth here to attack me.

Further FOS: ChannelDelibird.

Why are scum more likely to be adamant and vocal? My experience has been the opposite, particularly because scum know the particular wagon-victim is town, want to push it along, but don't want to be associated too strongly with it. Your behavior D1 is consistent with this.

"I wouldn't do that as scum" = WIFOM.

You need to be taken to task for this. You are unfairly using the brand WIFOM with little actual basis.

Let's examine the form of the argument here.

CDB: I think Thesp is more likely to be scum because he exhibits

A

.
Thesp: In my experience, scum are more likely to exhibit

~A

(Not-A), which I have seen

you

doing.
CDB: Thesp, you are using WIFOM, which is scummy.

I think this would be a fair characterization for your attack.

If this is the form for WIFOM

, WIFOM is useless to the point of absurdity. In the first, I am not using

A

as a defense, as I know fully well I could be deliberately countering known or perceived scum tendencies. (I've long thought defenses are largely overrated, much because of this possibility.) In the second, I am using it to attack you, as I believe you are exhibiting tendencies scum frequently exhibit. It is ludicrous to suggest that an attack on you so phrased is WIFOM. Consider the above example, substituting for A, the concept, "is named Thesp". (In my experience, I believe I have been scum less than statistically likely to be scum, so people who are not Thesp are more likely to be scum. Yes, it's a terrible argument, but look where I'm going:)

CDB: I think Thesp is more likely to be scum because he exhibits

being named Thesp

.
Thesp: In my experience, scum are more likely to exhibit

not being named Thesp

, which I have seen

you

doing.
CDB: Thesp, you are using WIFOM, which is scummy.

The form is clearly absurd. (Note that it doesn't terribly matter what

A

is, this is purely for examining whether or not WIFOM is used here.) What you are doing is taking a disagreement over what scum are more actually likely to do, and trying to pin it on me as WIFOM. You are looking for excuses to vote me rather than looking for who might be scum, and

that

is scummy.

I

so

wish I was a vig. Curse you, spectrumvoid, for wasting your shot on IH.

ChannelDelibird is exhibiting the classic characteristics of scum silently pushing terrible wagons, showing up only when called on. This must stop, and lynching him is the way to do it.

Fritzler only made 2 more posts than me on Day 1, and at least half of those were noncontent.

I have reviewed his posts, and agree that's a point against him. I still think he's town for other outweighing reasons that I don't care to divulge. Given that, it leaves you as the only other person I see who fits the description of "[jumping] on a bandwagon of a townie, then [contributing] nothing to continue the bandwagon nor anything to dissuade it". It's scummy to the core.

I understand the Ether and Adele hate, and would switch to either to save my own skin, but I continue to think ChannelDelibird is far and away the best lynch.

[Thesp]

Unvote: ChannelDelibird, Vote: Adele.

I would prefer to be voting for ChannelDelibird and would gladly switch to lynch him.

[Thesp]

Unvote: Adele, Vote: Ether.

CDB's stil the preferred lynch, blah blah blah.

[Thesp]

Guys, Thesp is a terrible lynch. Seriously.

So is Adele. (obv)

[Thesp]

I would have thought CES or Fritzler would make better investigatees, as it's tough to get reads on either. However, MGM wasn't a bad choice, per se.

If Thesp gets lynched and turns up town, I think it's fairly clear who gets run up tomorrow.

Really? I think it's far from clear. (Besides CDB, of course, who's quiet again.)

If he's scum, I think Zindy and Glork have some splainin to do.

Why in the world would you think that re: Glork? His last vote is all but putting the nail in my coffin.

Patrick and Zindaras better move their votes before the deadline. Fritz too.

[Thesp]

I'm not sure why you'd think that either. (Although I don't like Thesp's defending me... trying to link himself to me before he goes down? Possibly.)

I'd only be defending you if I were scum. How in the world are you making sense here?

I also think Glork has been particularly gentlemanly towards Ether despite her exhibiting the kind of play that he typically goes after aggressively.

Interesting.

The more I saw from Adele/MGM, the worse I thought they seemed. Consequently, as both of them were double-teaming Thesp, I began to wonder what was going on.

Why overlook the possibility that we're all town? Also, what do you think of CDB? You keep saying he's one of your suspects, but continue to give him no substantive pressure.

Hey MrBuddyLee, why don't you hammah Thesp?

It appears I'm to be lynched by deadline, why hammer?

[Thesp]

Also, to clear up any confusion, no majority at deadline means no lynch.

Thanks.

Also, CES, how about some real thoughts? What do you think about CDB?

[Thesp]

Really? What do you think of his exhibited tendency to fall in with a bad wagon and remain silent?

(For what it's worth, I'd pointed out to CDB he hadn't put substantive pressure on CES for doing things he accused me of doing, to which he's not yet responded. Stupid, stupid deadline.)

[Thesp]

Also note that ChannelDelibird has been

incredibly

active on the site other than this game.

[Thesp]

Also note that ChannelDelibird has been

incredibly

active on the site other than this game.

Nah, certainly not. I think he's been more active elsewhere, yes, but certainly not to that extent, crazy Thesp.

Look at his posts on the site recently.

[Thesp]

If I'm lynched before tomorrow morning, please kill ChannelDelibird. If I'm not, I'm coming for you tomorrow, CDB.

[Thesp]

Vote: ChannelDelibird

.

Hooray for some time and a bit of breathing room!

[Thesp]

Vote: Thesp Same reasons I had yesterday.

Welcome back. Care to elaborate a response to my last post directed at you? I'd particularly like a response to my accusation against you of your hypocrisy in ignoring CES while pressing me, and of your flippant, irresponsible use of WIFOM.

No vote from Fritz to start the day is uncharacteristic--looks like he's waiting to see where things move. Also not impressive that his vote was on Adele at the end of yesterday. Worse, Patrick's was on MGM, and Patrick checked in to discuss but chose not to move his vote. His attempt to coast past that error on his part without an apology makes him AND Thesp look a little suspect, and makes Zindy look a little less suspicious. I would expect the difficulty finishing off Thesp if there were two scum laying off his wagon end of day yesterday.

Thesp, what do you think of Fritz, Ether and Patrick, Glork, CES and their end-of-day behavior yesterday? If you are town, you must have a unique perspective on behavior surrounding your wagon yesterday.

I find it intriguing. I don't think Fritzler is scum (in particular, in your initial paragraph for both of us to be scum would require unusual interaction in thread). I also think "difficulty finishing me off" yesterday may be attribued to townies having genuine concerns about not lynching me, timing, or a combination thereof. Also note while you argue there might be "difficulty finishing off Thesp if there were two scum laying off his wagon end of day yesterday", inversely it would have been easier for scum to have finished me off

if they weren't already on it

. (I doubt scum would have gotten much serious attention yesterday if they'd placed the final vote on me, using the need fir

some

lynch as an excuse.) Notably, that notches down a bit of suspicion of Ether for not voting me.

I'm finding CES scummier and scummier. I don't know if that's reactive or intuitive. I can easily conceive of him being scum with ChannelDelibird.

I'm unsure on Glork. I look forward to his re-read.

[Thesp]

Tonight, I'm a bit preoccupied with other stuff, but I'll take this moment to

FOS

everyone who had a chance to hammer Thesp and didn't do it.

You might not think he's scummy, but a no-lynch is more harmful than any lynch could be. Especially when the chance he's got a power role is very very small.

I'm not sure this is accurate, particularly given that we had an even number yesterday.

[Thesp]

A lynch would've given us useful information whereas the murder of Adele tells us nothing we didn't know already. A lynch would've given us the chance to analyse the wagon.

It looks like we've got plenty to analyze from yesterday.

Would you be referring to this interaction:
Thesp wrote:
I still think he's town for other outweighing reasons that I don't care to divulge.

or one of the interactions where Fritz says you're a terrible lynch? Please clarify, Thesp, cause your comment looks like the kind of flippant thing a partner of Fritz would say to brush past his blatant protection of you if you're both scum. I see no unusual interaction between the two of you that indicates there's no way you're aligned.

No, I'm using my own analysis of how I usually see scum interact, which in retrospect is not useful to everyone else, since I could deliberately counter it and use as a defense.

OK wait. So the most reasonable explanation is that you're town and all three scum were already on your wagon, and the remaining five or six townies all had genuine doubts about your guilt to the point of foregoing a lynch altogether? (Making them look FOSable in the process)

It could also conceivably be only two, with a third not online at the time to finish the vote, but yes, I think it more likely that scum were already on the wagon, rather than scum delaying in finishing the vote. Your theory (that 2 fellow scum of the 5(?) non-votees would be protecting me by not voting) would also require that 0 scum were already on the wagon, which would be exceedingly rare by any standard.

I don't see Thesp avoid getting lynched much longer.

Why?

I am loving a Zindie+CDB pairing.

QFT. Definitely.

Did you miss where Thesp said a hammer wasn't necessary because he was going to be deadline lynched? He deliberately propagated a falsehood with the intent of surviving the day.

I'm amazed at your psychic powers in being able to divine my intent at the time of that post. :rolleyes: Let's look at this:

Of course I didn't really want a page 4 lynch or anything, but

this town is responsible to the extent that I can just do whatever I want anyhow

.

This has got to stop.

I strongly suggest no one take anything CES does or says seriously until he puts some actual content out here.

He's starting to do a little bit of it, but he's got to do more at this point. He's saying it's our fault he's acting like this, so let's fix it.

I'm leaning more and more towards Patrick as town. Also, I <3 Glork.

If I were forced to at this point, I'd probably peg a ChannelDelibird, Zindaras, Cogtio Ergo Sum group as mafia.

[Thesp]

Don't be silly, Thesp. I'm saying this town is a responsible one. I don't have to worry about bandwagons spiralling out of control and page 4 lynches, that sort of thing. I can vote the way I like. I don't need to show restraint. That's what I meant. Obviously.

It apparently wasn't clear. Looking back, I can see how that might have been what you tried to convey, but it wasn't the impression I got.

And your remark served no real purpose, if you were town. And why assume that one is going to be deadline-lynched rather than simply giving the rules a quick read? The remark is simply far consistent with you being scum.

I'm uncertain how trying to force someone to reveal their justifications "served no real purpose, if

town". As to the assumption, I could have sworn we were under a plurality rule, and I was already typing my post (and unfortunately the preview pane didn't make it back to the first post), and I was too lazy to copy my post to Notepad at the time and go back in the browser, go to the first page, then reurn to my post. I'm uncertain of your argument that townies are typically not lazy, which seems to be what you have to assert for your argument to work.

No, seriously. You explicitly said here that Thesp was out of character, but your later statements have contradicted this. Please explain.

Yeah it was. His suspicions on day 2 seemed unusually feeble, and felt like little more than going after non contributors. That is out of character. At first I felt the attack on me was an attempt to appear useful or constructive too, but I changed my mind as it continued (not that I liked it). His play on day 1 was pretty usual for him.

This is consistent with how I've read you. I don't think this is an inconsistency in Patrick's play (my play did change substantively from early D2 to late D2).

But the point remains, no lynch gives ALL the control of who dies to the scum. That's why I'm so opposed to it. Yes, we do have a lot to analyse, but it all lacks the amount of certainty we would've had if we could connect that information to a dead player. We can analyse your wagon to death, but unless we know if you're scum or not, we're not going to get much out of it.

I think the people who

didn't

lynch me are pretty telling. Also, I agree that

all

the control of whomever dies is ceded to the scum, but we would want to do that at some point. I agree that yesterday may not have been ideal, at the same time, I would have liked a longer deadline to figure things out. I am unsure if a bad lynch is superior to a no lynch in our situation (clearly a

good

lynch is superior to both), in my position I'm inclined to think no lynch wasn't too bad.[/merits of lynch vs.no lynch]

[Thesp]

Firstly, ctrl-c, ctrl-v. Notepad is unnecessary. Ctrl-c it, go back to the browser, first page, check rules, ctrl-v, post. That's nothing. Secondly, we're not talking about townies, we're talking about you. Would you describe yourself as generally lazy?

Yeah, but I've lost too many posts to forgetting that I had something copied I was going to save, when I saw something else worth copying and commenting on. As far as myself, on my own time, yeah, I'm lazy.

[Thesp]

Also, I think the cat's out of the bag on this one so I can spread the love on this bit of advice.

A godfather might shoot for high visibility on D1 depending on their normal playstyle. D2 however they'd almost certainly shoot for high profile in order to possibly pull investigations away from any of their scumpartners who might be in trouble. That behavior would be expected to possibly reverse or at least cease to be a priority when Adele claimed.

I think you are overthinking/exaggerating the likelihood of Godfather tendencies.

Taking the hypothesis that either Ether and/or Thesp is scum, which I believe is significantly likely to be true, that would mean that their scumpartners would be feverishly working on alternate wagons. Does that mean everyone on alternate wagons is scum? No, duh, cause it takes as many townies as scum to lynch a townie at this point. But if people are softpedaling Ether and Thesp and shuffling feet towards CDB I'm watching them.

You have an awful lot of scum going around in this suggestion, it seems to me.

The CDB wagon looks to me like people ignoring the elephants in the room to swat a bee.

That's funny, I was thinking the opposite - why had there been so few to pick up and pressure CDB when it looks incredibly likely that he's scum? I have a thought on why that is - the more I look like scum, the more my attacks on CDB seem crazy. Now that people are going back and looking at CDB after getting some breathing room (no deadline pressure), there's legitimate suspicion there. I find it interesting that your defense of CDB seems to revolve around his wagon being an alternative to mine (and Ether's, to a lesser extent), and skirts how flaimingly scummy ChannelDelibird actually is.

[Thesp]

Hence the use of the word 'if'. I don't remember anyone posting a reason and that's the very reason I don't like the CDB wagon. If someone posted a reason that had merit I would've remembered it.

Let me post a recap of reasons I have given for suspicion of ChannelDelbird.

I'm still most uncomfortable with ChannelDelibird, particular with his actions D1 (following a townie's bandwagon with support and little other contribution, and deliberately not reacting to something he knew was to elicit reaction).

I still think your silence on D1 while a townie was being run up (which you'd put your vote on early, then did not detract from nor push for) is notable, and I'm surprised no one else is jumping on it.

What I find disconcerting is that he jumped on a bandwagon of a townie, then contributed nothing to continue the bandwagon nor anything to dissuade it. He contributed practically nothing except his vote. I haven't seen that from anyone else, if you'd like to point it out on someone, I'd love to see it, as they'd be worth looking at, too.

If I had reacted to your continuous claims that I was scum, my reaction would have been along the lines of "WTF? You're accusing me for no reason". Your 'accusations' looked to me like scum trying to deliberately incite a defensive reaction, so I was pretty sure that if I did react, you'd have pounced on it.

Why would the only possible reaction be defensive, as you seem to imply here? What was it about my "accusations" that made them appear to be scum trying to incite reactions rather than town trying to get reactions?

Town should not be calling for someone to die so repeatedly and vehemently on such a lack of basis.

What do you think of Cogito Ergo Sum? A cursory scan of your posts shows no substantive pressure on him, yet his activity in the thread would epitomize the idea you're putting forth here to attack me.

Further FOS: ChannelDelibird.

Why are scum more likely to be adamant and vocal? My experience has been the opposite, particularly because scum know the particular wagon-victim is town, want to push it along, but don't want to be associated too strongly with it. Your behavior D1 is consistent with this.

"I wouldn't do that as scum" = WIFOM.

You need to be taken to task for this. You are unfairly using the brand WIFOM with little actual basis.

Let's examine the form of the argument here.

CDB: I think Thesp is more likely to be scum because he exhibits A.
Thesp: In my experience, scum are more likely to exhibit

~A

(Not-A), which I have seen

you

doing.
CDB: Thesp, you are using WIFOM, which is scummy.

I think this would be a fair characterization for your attack.

If this is the form for WIFOM

, WIFOM is useless to the point of absurdity. In the first, I am not using A as a defense, as I know fully well I could be deliberately countering known or perceived scum tendencies. (I've long thought defenses are largely overrated, much because of this possibility.) In the second, I am using it to attack you, as I believe you are exhibiting tendencies scum frequently exhibit. It is ludicrous to suggest that an attack on you so phrased is WIFOM. Consider the above example, substituting for A, the concept, "is named Thesp". (In my experience, I believe I have been scum less than statistically likely to be scum, so people who are not Thesp are more likely to be scum. Yes, it's a terrible argument, but look where I'm going:)

CDB: I think Thesp is more likely to be scum because he exhibits

being named Thesp

.
Thesp: In my experience, scum are more likely to exhibit

not being named Thesp

, which I have seen

you

doing.
CDB: Thesp, you are using WIFOM, which is scummy.

The form is clearly absurd. (Note that it doesn't terribly matter what A is, this is purely for examining whether or not WIFOM is used here.) What you are doing is taking a disagreement over what scum are more actually likely to do, and trying to pin it on me as WIFOM. You are looking for excuses to vote me rather than looking for who might be scum, and

that

is scummy.

...

ChannelDelibird is exhibiting the classic characteristics of scum silently pushing terrible wagons, showing up only when called on. This must stop, and lynching him is the way to do it.

Also note that ChannelDelibird has been

incredibly

active on the site other than this game.

Vote: Thesp Same reasons I had yesterday.

Welcome back. Care to elaborate a response to my last post directed at you? I'd particularly like a response to my accusation against you of your hypocrisy in ignoring CES while pressing me, and of your flippant, irresponsible use of WIFOM.

Perhaps you overlooked some of this, and a re-read may provide insight. Otherwise, I'd like to hear your thoughts on the lack-of-merit of the presented case.

[Thesp]

Okay, nobody should counterclaim yet.

...

(I'm wary of the claim, as a roleblockerclaim does not require results and it makes so much sense for Channelscum to claim it to get the final power role out that I'm quite willing to lynch him without a counterclaim if there's good reason to believe he's scum.)

QFT. Majorly. Of course, the other possibility is we leave CDB around for a couple of days, and lynch him later when it's opportune for our final power role to reveal, or when the final power role dies (presuming CDB is lying). This may be a better alternative. There is no way CDB makes it to the endgame.

CDB, what were your choices?

[Thesp]

I encourage counterclaims. Once you bloodthirsty buffoons finish lynching me it would be nice to finally find a way to get on to lynching scum.

Of course you would.

[Thesp]

I encourage counterclaims. Once you bloodthirsty buffoons finish lynching me it would be nice to finally find a way to get on to lynching scum.

Of course you would.

Yes, of course I would. That's no more a scum perspective than it is a town perspective.

No, that's crap. I don't think I've seen a single person except you suggest a counterclaim would be a good thing for the town. It's far more likely to be a scum perspective (

especially

after several people warned how bad a counterclaim would be).

[Thesp]

This is the second time you've attempted to discredit a valid point by ignoring specific context. (It makes sense for

him

to ask for counterclaims, much in the same way I didn't think

you

were typically lazy.)

I could have sworn I'd presented a much more reasonable alternative to counterclaiming that didn't involve ChannelDelibird getting lynched. Hmm...

Of course, the other possibility is we leave CDB around for a couple of days, and lynch him later when it's opportune for our final power role to reveal, or when the final power role dies (presuming CDB is lying). This may be a better alternative.

Oh, there it is. That would have made a lot of sense for townie ChannelDelibird to go along with. Instead, he tries to incite a counterclaim. That's interesting to me.

Also, I echo MrBuddyLee's request for ChannelDelibird's input on various people.

[Thesp]

As I said in the post, Thesp was sucky or scum (something he himself agreed with). As I said in Post 632, I wanted to reread for Adele (the alternative) before voting Thesp (and later Ether, another raised alternative). After I reread their posts, I cast my vote for Thesp. I felt he was narrow-minded in his attacks on AndrewS and CDB.

Now that there seems to be a general consensus that ChannelDelibird is scum (please correct me if I am incorrect in this perception), would you characterize my focus on CDB the same?

...actually, just went back and re-read your latest posts. You've

ignored

the ChannelDelibird hullabaloo, including counter-claim discussion.

FOS: Zindaras.

[Thesp]

The former, although my suspicions are mostly based on individual behaviour. Thesp's oft-repeated words "I want to lynch CDB, but I'll vote XXXX" do suggest a link.

Do you interpret CDB's behavior similarly? Also, am I correct to ascertain that you believe my behavior towards ChannelDelibird is more likely to be insincere?

[Thesp]

Thesp was the lynch yesterday. There is no reason to postpone it any longer.
He's scum and we should lynch him today.

Why? I was a sub-optimal lynch yesterday, and ChannelDelibird is a much better lynch and far more likely to be scum (as most people seem to indicate). I was essentially a compromise lynch to try and lynch

someone

in light of a deadline (as far as I see). Why do you think I'm scum?

[Thesp]

Do you interpret CDB's behavior similarly?

No, it's not his behaviour that really bugs me, although it is slightly scummy. It's the claim.

Also, am I correct to ascertain that you believe my behavior towards ChannelDelibird is more likely to be insincere?

That follows logically from my belief that you are scum, does it not?

Just checking. I was wondering what you'd thought of CDB's behavior towards me as well.

[Thesp]

The same reasons I did yesterday, plus the fact several people sabotaged the lynch, plus the fact I don't want to help the scum lynch another potential power role.

I think the deadline sabotaged the lynch.

[Thesp]

(At this point, Channel looks screwed. I don't really expect a godfather to go this far on a limb to save a goon, as Mgm's arguments and sunken cost fallacy counterwagon would imply. I find those incomprehensible from either side, really; remind me to read something with Mgmscum.)

This feels very, very odd. Noted for future reference.

CDB is doing what I would expect from scum to be honest. I think a pro town powerole would put up more of a fight than this. He hasn't been willing to do as people asked him and give detailed opinions on other players, maybe for fear of incriminating scumbuddies.

Quoted for massive, massive amounts of truthery.

If you believe the real roleblocker would counterclaim to ensure a scum lynch this chance increases to 100% (provided we do have a roleblocker as final power role)

I think it is far, far more likely (and far better) for our final power role to remain silent rather than counterclaim,

especially

if they are a backup cop. Note that it's also irrelevant as to whether or not our final power role is a roleblocker or something else, that person already knows CDB to be lying.

[Thesp]

A roleblocker is way more expendable, though, especially after that no-lynch.

I'm not sure I agree with this argument, as a successful block would be a cop-like investigation. Of course, a roleblocker would be best to block people less-suspected to be scum (as almost certainly the mafia are sending out their least-suspected members to do the killings), which is another reason I doubt CDB's claim.

[Thesp]

Compared to a cop and a deputy, the roleblocker is weak, even if he's useful an sich.

Agreed.

[Thesp]

Mod: Is there any way we can make the deadline somehow contingent upon ChannelDelibird's posting?

It seems clear a number of people are waiting for responses from him, and I don't want us punished by his deliberate lurking. Thanks.

[Thesp]

We could just lynch him, you know? That'd work too.

I'm think that'd be awesome, but there seems enough waffling amongst the haven't-voted-yets that I'm trying to eliminate any excuses from them.

[Thesp]

CES, I'd love to see your vote actually on ChannelDelibird, hammer be danged.

[Thesp]

Why?

I have a couple of reasons, but...

Why not?

[Thesp]

I suspect there may be a couple of people waiting on the final vote for this very reason, and I'm afraid we won't lynch if everyone waits for the hammer. I like to hammer too, but I'm not unvoting just so I can do it. I also don't trust you, and I have a lingering fear that you won't actually vote for CDB.

You said "for one", do you have other reasons?

[Thesp]

You said "for one", do you have other reasons?

[Thesp]

Oh, and thanks, Patrick.

[Thesp]

His Night 1 investigation is fairly obvious. An innocent on Thesp. So he's the Godfather. This is good to know. He doesn't really hint at a Night 2 investigation, although a guilty on Channel seems the most likely possibility.

Vote: Thesp

I cannot fathom that you actually think this is a likely possibility. I would love to hear other thoughts on who you think are scum.

FOS: Cogito Ergo Sum.

Unfortunately, I'm developing a nagging feeling that CDB might be scum and that someone's going to try to accuse me of being the GF and lynch me tomorrow if I fail to participate in his lynch. That doesn't do my paranoia or my heart any good. MBL and Glork seem to be all set to go for my jugular if I make a wrong decision today.

It just feels wrong. And after all that time defending CDB he looks like laying the groundwork for a 180 turn if he sees that CDB is going to be lynched. Possibly because he knows CDB will turn up scum so he wants to make sure he is seen to be part of the crowd that wanted him dead.

Agreed, though I don't think Mgm is worth lynching anytime soon.

He expressed suspicion of Channel often without providing much reasoning and he had little problem with voting for other people.

I think you're going to have a hard time arguing this when you look at the facts.

Here is the funny thing about Ether though, which I think points towards her being town. (This assumes Thesp is town which I believe he is).

In her 14th post she says that she will likely hammer Thesp before deadline, not because she finds him especially scummy but because of the deadline. Fairly standard stuff, and I could see scum saying that to ease their way onto a Thesp hammer using an obvious excuse. Except... she never follows up on this. Why not if she is scum? She could get rid of a townie, and probably wouldn't pick up alot of flak for it. She did however pick up a fair amount of flak for not hammering. So basically I would have expected her to kill him at that point if she is scum (I would also expect the same if she happened to be scum with Thesp as I explained earlier, but I see that as very unlikely).

QFT.

I reread Ether's posts surrounding the failure to Thesp-lynch and don't think her dithering looks guaranteed genuine. Your logic that she's not scum because she didn't hammer in a hammerable situation would imply that MBL, Nightfall, Thesp, Patrick, Ether are protown and the remaining scum are in {CES, MGM, Glork, Zindy}. I see Glork and MgM as significantly townish, which would narrow that list to {CES, Zindy} in my eyes.

There are timing issues that could have prevented someone else from doing a deadline hammer - Ether seemed to imply she would certainly be online. I do however think that people who had the opportunity to hammer and declined are more likely to be town. I also don't have a problem with your proposed scum list, for what it's worth.

In response to MgM:

I think the people who didn't lynch me are pretty telling.

Thesp, can you please elaborate upon this statement?

Similar to Patrick's theory on Ether, I think if scum had the opportunity to hammer me, they could have without taking much (if any) flak. I can conceive of townies having serious doubts about my lynch, and not contributing the hammer. I doubt much less that scum woul have passed on the opportunity under the guise of "We've gotta lynch somebody" (which was clearly rampant, see Mgm).

CES, how does lynching a likely investigated innocent work out as the mathematical best choice today? Please enlighten us.

QFT. (CES's answer noted as "unresponsive".)

[Thesp]

Vote: Cogito Ergo Sum.

I was hesitant to throw the vote on earlier (as it's 4 to lynch), but I'm okay with it at the moment.

[Thesp]

GAME STATUS: Day 4 - 9 alive means 5 to lynch!

I'm clearly not paying attention.

[Thesp]

Dude, we have 2 scum left. Obviously the investigation result reduces the chance he's scum, but not to the extent that I now think he's town. He also didn't shy away from attention like a Goon would, so I kinda thought he was more likely to be the Godfather anyhow.

I'm strongly thinking people are overemphasizing general tendencies of how players play when they are Godfather as opposed to Goons.

And I was thinking about the Fritzkill. I'd say that Thesp was in an excellent position to notice Fritz had an innocent on him.

I did indeed think Fritzler was a cop. It seems like scum picked up on the same observation. Interesting you bring that up, given you've been focused (seemingly) solely on me since the beginning of Day 2, and I may have indicated my thoughts on his copness on D2. (You also indicate you recognize Fritzler's obvious copness early today, though it is impossible to ascertain whether this is before or after the fact has been revealed.) I've also reviewed your posts, and noted your contribution to the terribly-advised spectrumvoid wagon that outed another power role. I've also noted your defense/feigned disinterest of CDB when you refer to him:

Well, you've expressed suspicion of CDB quite often and it doesn't feel like distancing to me, so I consider him slightly pro-townish looking. Other than that though, CDB's been lurking, a slight scum tell in his case I'd say, but there's nothing in his posts that makes alarm bells go off.

Also note that ChannelDelibird has been incredibly active on the site other than this game.

Nah, certainly not. I think he's been more active elsewhere, yes, but certainly not to that extent, crazy Thesp.

MrBuddyLee, why don't you share what you "found" in his posts? If it is damning as you make it out to be, then I see no reason to out the real last power role.

If he's town, he obviously thinks that asking for a counterclaim rather than just getting lynched is a good idea.

This is the second time you've attempted to discredit a valid point by ignoring specific context. (It makes sense for him to ask for counterclaims, much in the same way I didn't think you were typically lazy.)

Also noted: your suspicion of ChannelDelibird grows severely stronger when it's evident CDB will be the day's lynch.

Cogito Ergo Sum, you continue to stall in giving answers to who else you think is scum. If I recall correctly, ChannelDelibird did the same thing when pressed. I'm noticing a pattern.

Happy, happy, happy with my vote.

[Thesp]

Also noted: your suspicion of ChannelDelibird grows severely stronger when it's evident CDB will be the day's lynch.

This one. It completely fails to mention Channel's claim, the cause of my change in opinion. And if there's one pro-town thing that I'm proud of, it's that I'm not blinded by claims and that I can recognize that in many setups claiming a power role actually makes someone more likely to be scum. (In a 3 scum, 1 power role situation with plenty of incentive to try and draw out a counterclaim, this is especially true.)

You'll have to pardon me if I didn't take you at your word when you say that's when your change of heart was. Your strongest indication of this change of heart at the counterclaim was this statement:

(I'm wary of the claim, as a roleblockerclaim does not require results and it makes so much sense for Channelscum to claim it to get the final power role out that I'm quite willing to lynch him without a counterclaim if there's good reason to believe he's scum.)

...which was tempered by these other statements in the same timeframe...

Why aren't you willing to reveal what you have found, MBL?

If he's town, he obviously thinks that asking for a counterclaim rather than just getting lynched is a good idea.

This is the second time you've attempted to discredit a valid point by ignoring specific context. (It makes sense for him to ask for counterclaims, much in the same way I didn't think you were typically lazy.)

(note referring to CDB's point as "valid")

It didn't seem as clear-cut to me that you were strongly in favor of CDB's lynch when your strongest words on his lynch for a considerable time period are "I'm wary of the claim" and "I'm quite willing to lynch him without a counterclaim if there's good reason to believe he's scum", while making probative attacks at people who are driving the CDB lynchwagon. Forgive me if I have trouble in ascertaining exactly how much you wanted to lynch CDB, when your strongest words for him don't carry anywhere near the same amount of fervor as the words you've reserved for the desire to lynch me. It appears instead to me that you were deliberately vague in regards to him earlier so that you could come back at a later time and claim you were in favor of lynching him all along, whilst at that time not actually pusing his wagon (in fact, making minor moves to

stymie

it).

I would be fine lynching Zindaras, but I can't see what's pro-town about CES.

[Thesp]

I wouldn't call that a blatant misrepresentation, CES. I actually got the same feeling, because I don't think you made it very clear that it was the roleclaim which changed your mind. Explaining it after the fact does not exempt you, so I see where Thesp was coming from.

Misrepresentation may be the wrong word, but not mentioning the context is still manipulative.

I get the feeling you are making things up. Please show me how context changes this. I thought I'd just gone over that in the post 3 before yours.

I have to point out, again, that that final quote was an attack on you far more than it was in any way a defense of Channel.

I agree it was an attack on me. I don't think you can easily separate it from the case against CDB (which I was at the time strongly presenting), as you seem to be trying to do.

Thesp, weren't you the slightest bit interested in what MBL had found?

Actually I wasn't, because I thought it would be role-related somehow. There were a number of scenarios I had conceived where MrBuddyLee was town wanting to get CDB lynched without letting out too much information, and I thought prying it from him would be detrimental.

[Thesp]

Both myself and CES have covered this already. That posted was intended to make CES look bad, but if it was put into context with the claim he'd look a lot better.

I strongly, strongly disagree with you here. If CES actually was fully swayed by the claim, and his posts suggested that as well, I think you'd have a point. However,

if you look at what CES posted

, it's not anywhere as clear as he claims that the claim actually did change his mind as strongly as he intones it did. You haven't really commented on the substance of my prior post, you've merely repeated the (false?*) assertion that CES was actually ready to string up CDB and helped push the CDB wagon when CES insists he did after the fact. I don't think his posts support him. I'm just trying to pin you down now on the claim that you think his posts

do

support him.

* - in my humble and accurate opinion

Almost didn't notice this -

CDB was already a lost cause. If any scum associated themselves with him, I'd be very surprised. I'm convinced scum was early on the wagon to look innocent.

Aren't you trying to insist CES was actually on the CDB wagon early? I'm surprised by your seeming double-mind on this.

[Thesp]

Crud. Back, and it looks like a number of my longer posts are missing.

[Thesp]

Pretty sure I remember saying "HAY ZINDIE, POST OR DIE" and "I like Ether's attack on Nightfall."

I'd be cool lynching either right now.

Yeah, that sounds right. CES also took meaningless potshots at me for unknown reasons, if I recall correctly.

[Thesp]

Thesp, of MBL, Glork and Patrick, who do you find most scummy?

Good question. I'm sold on Glork being town, and while I had lingering doubts on Patrick's townness, they've largely subsided. I have strong concerns about MrBuddyLee after a brief re-read, but CES and Zindaras are still ahead of all of that list combined. I could go along with the Nightfall lynch as well, it seems well founded. Still happiest with a CES lynch, would settle for a Zindaras or Nightfall, I suppose.

[Thesp]

What do you think about Nightfall?

[Thesp]

I'm uncomfortable with CES's sudden move to Nightfall.

Unvote: Cogito Ergo Sum, Vote: Zindaras.

I'm still happiest with a CES lynch.

[Thesp]

What makes you uncomfortable about the move, Thesp?

That you voted him without explanation, and I still think you're the scummiest one out there. I have a suspicion that most people are thinking, "Oh that's just CES, he always plays crazy" and aren't analyzing your play.

I would like to bring this up again, though, because it's horribly scummy and it was mostly ignored the first time around:

Cogito Ergo Sum, you continue to stall in giving answers to who else you think is scum. If I recall correctly, ChannelDelibird did the same thing when pressed. I'm noticing a pattern.

Like I said then, it's either a scum tell in general or not at all. Channel doing the same thing can't possibly be relevant.

I agree, it's either in general or not at all. I suspect it is a tell in general - this is an instance of such a tell happening, and a bit of evidence that it might be a tell. (I recognize that in and of itself it's not a proof of any sort, just a poential indication.)

[Thesp]

One incidence is not statistically significant as I'm sure there have been lots of people who have done this.

I agree it in and of itself is not statistically significant, but it's something I noticed. I don't feel like parsing through lots of old games looking for concrete examples, it

feels

like something I've seen scum do more than town, and it feels like something I would expect to see more from scum than town (i.e. I find it significantly less likely to be something town would do than scum from a behavioral standpoint).

Pointing out Channel did it does not support the hypothesis that it is a scum tell, but what does it do is link me to Channel in the mind of the reader.

It

does

support it, albeit weakly. Also, since I'm perceiving a behavioral similarity to how scum have behaved, I'm not terribly concerned if you feel it links you to CDB (who happened to be scum exhibiting similar behavior).

Also, my playstyle is wholly unlike Channel's. Even if Channel's actions were significant, blindly applying that to me is still wrong, painfully wrong.

Yes, your playstyle is different, but that doesn't mean you can't exhibit

some

similarities (especially scumtells, which are by definition not deliberate). I'm not blindly applying CDB to you, I'm applying something I think is more likely to be done by scum than town, which CDB happened to exhibit as well. It's this particular argument, that you always play bizarre and different, that makes me feel you're skating by without anyone giving you serious attention. I'd love for you to give some substantive reasoning for your votes and suspicions, even if sketchy. I'm

very

disturbed by how you seem to be waiting to see how the direction of the town points, then you follow it with little contribution.

I will most likely move my vote at deadline to prevent a no-lynch, especially if it's to CES.

[Thesp]

Thesp, are you Nightfall's godfather?

Nightfall's recent posts feel very genuine to me.

I don't think you need to include an example at all. You can just explain why scum do it more often than town. Or you can say something like "in my experience".

Apparently, I thought it would be worthwhile. You'll have to forgive me for not posting as you'd like.

It's not the nature of my playstyle that matters here, but rather merely the fact that it differs from Channel's. What is a scum tell for one, might be a town tell for another. Do you think I would be more likely to do it as scum or as town? Again, Channel doesn't enter into the equation.

I'm not sure I need to independently assess each and every single player to the extent you are demanding here. Each player requires their individual assessment

as well as

an assessment based upon how players

generally

interact while playing. Again, I have serious problems with this argument (whether voiced, as here, or implicit) that you should be treated different because you're CRAAAAAAAAAAZYYYYYYYYY!!!!

Also, why are you voting for Nightfall? I missed that part. You've glossed over this while showing "activity" by attacking me. This reminds me of an instance where another player, who was scum...nevermind, you don't want to hear it.

Nightfall's post 1330 seems to be adressing CES as though he thinks or knows that CES is town, whereas two posts before he said that CES was a grave concern of his.

I'm not seeing this at all.

(Yes, I'm probably action illogical, you would too if the only viable bandwagons were on people you had on the innocent or probably innocent list.)

Been there, buddy.

For filler, I'll state that one way I approach scumhunting is to look for posts that I don't think scum could make. They're pretty rare, but once in a while I spot a post that simply reeks of genuine.

Patrick, Nightfall, Ether and MgM have made such posts in this game. I haven't gone back to pick out the specific posts and don't really care to, but I made mental notes as such at the time. I just wanted to state for the record that if any one of them is scum, they had a moment of genius at one point and completely and utterly bamboozled me.

Thesp, Glork, CES, and especially Zindaras, no such vibes from any of their posts. Glork came close once or twice but he's a good enough player that I hold him to a higher standard when looking for sincerity in his words.

disclaimer: this technique isn't by any means 100% successful but it's worked more often than not.

For the record, I'm a big believer in this technique. I find it interesting that after eliminating myself and Glork from your "a-townie" list, we are left with what I see as a very viable scumpair, CES/Zindaras. It is not lost upon me that you yourself are one of the people I've pondered as scum.

[Thesp]

Scum tells are only useful if you know how to apply them. It's about understanding and insight, not about rules.

I think I do have a better-than-average understanding and insight of scum tells and application thereof. I recognize I may be wrong in this.

Unvote: Zindaras, Vote: Cogito Ergo Sum.

Two candidates at 3 votes.

[Thesp]

Zindaras should be lynched.

Discuss.

Can we lynch him and CES?

[Thesp]

Why?

Largely his reactions to me and especially to ChannelDelibird. He practically ignores the discussion surrounding ChannelDelibird when it's at the most volatile. I'm also compelled by the proposed scum argument on the Thesp-lynch failure:

I reread Ether's posts surrounding the failure to Thesp-lynch and don't think her dithering looks guaranteed genuine. Your logic that she's not scum because she didn't hammer in a hammerable situation would imply that MBL, Nightfall, Thesp, Patrick, Ether are protown and the remaining scum are in {CES, MGM, Glork, Zindy}. I see Glork and MgM as significantly townish, which would narrow that list to {CES, Zindy} in my eyes.

I also think his failure to show up is potentially induced by the fact he's in a difficult (perhaps even paralyzing) situation as scum.

[Thesp]

Still here, and still most comfortable with my vote on CES, though I was sad to see Zindaras come up town.

[Thesp]

I will send a request, but haven't done so yet.

I just don't see Ether as scum. I'm waffling on Nightfall, his latest posts reek of the "doth protest too much" when referring to himself as a "townie". I could go with a MrBuddyLee lynch. Pretty easily, the more I read. I still think Glork is very town. I still don't see why so many people are convinced of CES's innocence. At all.

[Thesp]

Ether was prodded more than a week ago in another game I'm in with her, and she was replaced in that one. I think she needs replaceage/modkill, which is a shame since I think she's more likely to be town.

[Thesp]

Still here, still flabergasted by the lack of CES lynchitude.

[Thesp]

Hi, please get off of your high horse and lynch Nightfall's replacement.

Or maybe you really

are

his Godfather.

I'm so-so on Nightfall, and understand the case for him, and probably would have voted for him, but how easily CES moved his vote to Nightfall without a word really, really set me at unease about his lynch. I'll lynch his replacment rather than a deadline no-lynch, but I'm not ready to vote him now.

Still here, still flabergasted by the lack of CES lynchitude.

And still not contributing.

[Thesp]

Unvote: CES, Vote: Battle Mage.

I can't believe I missed the big red letters re: Post 595. Flamingly scummy.

[Thesp]

Sorry for my absence lately, the end of the month is killer in the title/escrow business.

could you please comment on my analysis, seeing as not only did it take along time to write

That doesn't mean it's worth commenting on.

I don't really understand Thesp's accompanying reason for his vote on Battle Mage. Are you saying everything written in red by Nightfall is scummy?

No, I'd missed this:

On the topic of Fritz I must ask, why of all the talk about how I am “lurking” or “not bothering to post” and of how CDB is “attempting to make it look like he is contributing” why isn’t more attention being given to the fact that Fritz too has contributed very little?

This is

textbook

deflection,

especially

since it's been shown that CDB was scum and Fritzler wasn't.

Happy with my vote, ready for a lynch.

[Thesp]

Thesp bases his current vote entirely on Nightfall's words and has given us no substantial analysis of BM's.

Why should I, when I see little worthwhile in BM's posts, but find something incredibly condemning in his predecessor's? PBPA's are highly overrated, and often more self-congratulatory than actually useful.

[Thesp]

CES, CTD, any further comment on BM's posts? CES, why so defensive in your analysis? CTD, why'd you ignore BM's comments entirely?

Because it's nigh impossible for me to see them as anything but scum trying to weasel out of being lynched (post 1564 stands out in particular).

I agree that he is giving us valuable information, but I don't think it's worth analysing in detail until we know his alignment.

I'll drop the hammer sometimes later if no one else is willing to.

DON'T PULL AN ETHER! NOT THIS TIME!

Do a CES.

[Thesp]

Really, I think that we all should take some time in the next week or so and have each and every one of us read the

entire thread

. In my experience, endgames are seriously won or lost because of people's willingness to go back and reassess their opinions over the course of the game. Even as I tell CES and Thesp to do more, I have a feeling that Thesp is going to go "well damn, back to my vote on CES from yesterday," and he'll still provide minimul contribution/discussion. This concerns me.

I will try to re-read, but I'm not certain when I have the time. I remember replacing into Kingmaker, and the 80-page behemoth was daunting to get through.

I feel somewhat patronized by your assessment of me on CES. I am really flabbergasted that little serious attention has been paid to him, as he's led terrible, terrible wagons with little contribution (even when pressed), seems only defensive, never contributed justification for his vote yesterday (but was more than happy to help the lynch along), and has had all-around suspect play. Yet people seem to stick up for him/ignore him like there's no tomorrow. He is by far the best play for the day, as I sit right now. I will try to go back and re-look, but I think he warrants serious attention.

Mod: Please do not impose a deadline today, or for the rest of the game. We'll finish it, I promise, but I think we may need some time on this one.

Prods are welcome if we slack off, I know it may happen with me. Thanks!

[Thesp]

Sorry I haven't posted in about a week, most of my games have been suffering my lack of time. Let's fix that now.

Thesp, your playstyle has finally gotten under my nerves. I know you do this "I'm going to call X scum and stick with it" thing..... but I'm having a hard time figuring out any of your thoughts from D1. Please look over your own D1 posts, look over the posts and interactions of the people whom you suspected, and explain your train of thought throughout the day.

I must confess the "call someone scum and stick with it" ruse is less ruse and more stubbornness than I'd like to admit. I tend to think I'm right on things, even when I know I might be wrong. But let's go over D1 suspicions - though I wish I'd taken notes, I think I can reconstruct most of my thoughts here...

I thought AndrewS was scum, scum, scum. I was singing it at home to kristocker, proud of how I'd found a scum D1 already in this game (the vote to no-lynch and his general arguments of "I was doing something scummy to see what reactions I'd get reeked). I was flat-out wrong.

I did have other suspicions as well, which I alluded to:

ChannelDelibird

:

I'm not convinced by that explanation. I also feel that if you feel you learned something from it, telling the town who you feel made a scummy reaction to your post would help your position (if it's justified, of course). FoS: AndrewS

This quote felt very deflection-y, and sounded like in-thread scum-to-scum communication, and led to my proclamation (and repeated insistence) that ChannelDelibird was AndrewS's partner (and later that he should be vigged).

MrBuddyLee

: This post was a quick-summary post on each player, which say very little of actual substance, and left the door open for suspicion on almost every player. I tend to think such posts come from scum.


I hope this helps. I'm nowhere near a full re-read, but I will confess CES's latest approach reeks to me of the "I'm CES and I'm CRAAAAAAAAAAAAAAZY! You can't lynch me for being CRAAAAAAAAAAAAAAZY!"

ps. I have a good idea who CDB's partners are. There are like 4 of you.

Who were those 4 people? Also, what do you think of CES's attitude towards CDB, especially CES's assertion that he was very clear that he was severely more suspicious of CDB after CDB's claim?

Looking over everyone's posts in isolation, I'm not really wild about Patrick's posts today. I am curious, though, why do you think CTD was killed? I'm fine with purely speculative thought.

[Thesp]

Thinking about what's going on today, Patrick and Thesp seem to be impossible to get lynched. Mgm and Glrok are town. That leaves MBL.

I can't see the town winning this any other way, so Vote: MBL.

What about tomorrow? Who's the other scum?

[Thesp]

I believe he still claims that you are the Godfather, Thesp.

Also, note the lack of vote.

Well yes, I just want to hear it from him.

[Thesp]

I like posting.

[Thesp]

I was just posting there.

[Thesp]

I don't do hardcore analysis at this hour (2:45 am). I don't think we spammed that much that it needs complaining about. And my question to CES was serious.

My question to CES was serious, too, and I want to hear an answer (though I suspect I know where my vote will go). Glork is a harsh master!

[Thesp]

It seems unlikely that both are town, to say the least.

[Thesp]

Thesp, you're the GF. I have made that abundantly clear.

Waves hi again btw. You know CES, if you are protown and you were only seriously considering a Thesp/Patrick pairing or a Thesp/MBL pairing, then your vote was reckless. You didn't even wait for Glork's opinion which you seemed to value so highly in helping you decide. Why the sudden lunge?

Originally I was just focussed on finding out who the goon was. I just realized that it didn't even matter, because, as I stated, you were impossible to lynch. I realized that if you were the goon, the town would never win. I had to go with the other option.

I wonder something else. If you consider those two pairings, why aren't you doing the obvious and vote to lynch Thesp, that would in your mind guarantee a dead scum while you could be 50% wrong the way you're voting now? I'm happy to see you on the wagon, but I'm not sure you did it for the right reasons.

Voting for Thesp today would pretty much be suicide. Also, it's not 50-50. And even if we did lynch Thesp today, we'd still have to make the decision tomorrow.

You seem way more concerned with your own survival than with good play. You've failed to present why you think MBL and I would be scum together, despite being offered multiple opportunities to do so. You continue to present votes and refuse to come close to justifying them.

Vote: Cogito Ergo Sum.

Die scum die.

[Thesp]

Because I don't have a concrete case, Mgm, I have a read. I'm not an awesome scumhunter who finds scum, convinces the town and leads them to a victory.

Does anyone else read this as, "I'm not a good player who can justify my thoughts, so don't hold me to that standard"?

Because that's how it comes across to me, and I know that's a load of malarkey.

[Thesp]

If that's a load of malarkey, then please show us a game in which I did give convincing reasons. I can point to Two-headed Mafia's endgame. I was absolutely certain about Djelibeybi but could not for the life of me convince Lowell to vote for him.

I know you're a better player than that. You're refusing to give

any

reasons, even if they're just shots in the dark. That's troubling.

[Thesp]

Another two quotes from "Thesp and CDB's Classics", brought to you by,

The CES Lynchwagon. The CES Lynchwagon - it's where you need to be!

Town should not be calling for someone to die so repeatedly and vehemently on such a lack of basis.

What do you think of Cogito Ergo Sum? A cursory scan of your posts shows no substantive pressure on him, yet his activity in the thread would epitomize the idea you're putting forth here to attack me.

Further FOS: ChannelDelibird

.

(For what it's worth, I'd pointed out to CDB he hadn't put substantive pressure on CES for doing things he accused me of doing, to which he's not yet responded. Stupid, stupid deadline.)

Question for everybody: Why do you think that Fritzler was killed on Night Three?

I'd thought he was cop for a while, as I'd alluded to on D2:

Fritzler only made 2 more posts than me on Day 1, and at least half of those were noncontent.

I have reviewed his posts, and agree that's a point against him. I still think he's town for other outweighing reasons that I don't care to divulge.

I figure the scum noticed his blatant defense of me as well.

I'll try to look at the question re: Patrick later.

[Thesp]

Drops the Thesplove.

Seeing statements like this makes me sad.

Like I said earlier today, basic statistics. Both Channelscum and Channelblocker would make that claim. 3 scum left, 1/3rd of a Blocker => 90% of the time he's scum.

If it's only simple statistics, why add the bolded part of this quote?

(I'm wary of the claim, as a roleblockerclaim does not require results and it makes so much sense for Channelscum to claim it to get the final power role out that I'm quite willing to lynch him without a counterclaim

if there's good reason to believe he's scum

.)

It appears there's more than simple statistics going on, because you're clearly

not

willing to lynch him based solely on the numbers.

Actually, much worse than odd, because we now know that at least one of CES/Mgm HAS to be scum.

While you can assert that, everyone else can only say with certainty that at least one scum must be found in {Cogito Ergo Sum, Mgm, MrBuddyLee}.

Everyone: Who are you least willing to lynch right now?

I really, really don't like this question and don't think anyone should answer it. Flaming FOS of botherment: Mgm.

(I'm sad to see some people have answered it already.)

Mgm, what do you think of Cogito Ergo Sum?

[Thesp]

I am not disagreeing with you for the sake of it. I think I have an idea what Thesp's complaint is. I also thought FoSing him right back seemed suprising. Feel free to go ahead and enlighten me, I'm listening.

QFT. Big time. I want to see why

you

think this question is so important. Your attempt to get others to answer your problems is noted.

[Thesp]

So other people who aren't called Thesp can still answer it before I explain.

This is a very, very bad idea. No one should answer whom they are least likely to lynch until Mgm comes up with some awesome reason why we should. I can think of at least one compelling reason we

shouldn't

.

I'm really, really disturbed by Mgm's approach here. I want to hear from him - I don't want anyone bailing him out.

[Thesp]

That is a very, very bad idea. No one should listen to Thesp until he can come up with some awesome reason why we should. I can think of at least one compelling reason we shouldn't.

I want to hear some other people weigh in here. (Also, "no one should listen to Thesp"? Wha?)

[Thesp]

Well, I'm trying to make scum commit to something for one thing. If they say "I want Stoofer lynched" they're not getting away with not following through on what they said when the opportunity arises. The same goes for least suspicious.

There are far better things to get people to commit to. Glork alluded to this, but essentially, your question gives scum the best informtion about whom is best to leave alive the next day,

especially

if we are intent to hold people to what they say now. Assume, for a moment, that Player

A

is scum, and Players

B, C

, and

D

are town. The players are asked this question, and Player

B

says he's least likely to lynch

A.

Note that if we hold him to his answer,

A

can not only have someone on the last day who will be unlikely to lynch him (creating a stalemate at worst), but can also use his answer as leverage against him, should he reconsider (which you've already asserted you intend to do). It's dangerous play, and I'm really concerned that you asked it. I want to hear your reason for asking it that you're keeping hidden, because I'm certainly not going to provide the answer to your question, whether you give your reason or not (and I hope no one else does, either).

I have another motive for asking, but revealing that would make any answers that come after it useless, hence me not telling.

That's what I'm afraid of - I think you have ulterior motives here.

What do you think of CES?

[Thesp]

If my questions are so bad, then telling you might thoughts on CES is just as bad.
Double standards, people.

This is absurd. I am asserting that

some

questions are worthwhile, and some are detrimental. Suppose it is Day 1 of a game, and you ask, "Everyone, tell whether you are the doctor." While you are forcing the scum to commit to being the doctor or not, answering this question is clearly more detrimental to the town than helpful. Not every question is detrimental like this, however, and certainly some are useful. I strongly assert that people telling who they are least likely to lynch is not helpful, and worse, is

harmful

to the town. There are plenty of other questions I'll be happy to answer, but not that one. I still want to hear the awesome reason you have for asking it.

I think CES has climbed the ladder of suspiciousness

Can you be more specific? When did he climb it? How high has he climbed it? What did he do? This could mean almost anything.

*reads a bit more*

Your stance is still pretty vague. Can you bring some clarity here?

[Thesp]

I'm okay with with someone asking, just not the person who refuses to answer me. He first refuses to answer me and now suddenly his own questions enter the realm that just moments ago were scummy to him. I don't see how telling if CES is 2nd, 3rd, 4th or 5th on the list is gonna help anything.

What. The. Frick.

I'm perfectly willing to answer you on most questions. I refuse to answer you on a question which I strongly feel helps

only

scum. (Or, at best, most strongly helps scum and has dubious benefit to town.) I'm not looking for you to rank CES among your suspects, I'm looking for what you think of him in specific terms. You're using weasel phrases to describe your suspicion of him and I don't like it. I strongly, strongly think CES is scum, and the fact that you've been vague about him the whole game (and

especially

today) does not sit well with me. I think you'd be best to pay heed, because it appears I'm not the only one who's noticed. You'd better come up with some darn good reason why

you're

not answering questions about CES, rather than spouting out this contrived nonsense about "Thesp isn't answering questions".

Also, I'm confused as to how asking everyone about their top lynchee and bottom lynchee is qualified as "questions restricted to the basic neccesitities", while me asking you intently about one player is "working to a complete suspect list".

[Thesp]

Well, telling you that would pretty much reveal my entire suspect list and I believe that would help the scum a bit too much. But since you haven't been called on that, it appears no one agrees with me.

CES is in shared second place behind MBL together with you.

How did he get there? Why is he so suspicious to you?

[Thesp]

Well, telling you that would pretty much reveal my entire suspect list and I believe that would help the scum a bit too much. But since you haven't been called on that, it appears no one agrees with me.

CES is in shared second place behind MBL together with you.

How did he get there? Why is he so suspicious to you?

He's done all sorts of odd stuff since I protected him early in the game. On their own, they're not much, but together they are becoming too much to ignore. I still don't know why he suspects Thesp. And I have a slight feeling he is connecting himself (which would help his body lynch me and win should CES ever get the chop).

What sorts of odd things? This is still very vague.

[Thesp]

I'm ready to lynch.

[Thesp]

I have to assume MBL was just trying to confuse us then.

This looks a whole lot like trying to make the facts fit the theory, rather than make the theory fit the facts.

I though the vote without explanation was unusual, but reasonable enough. I did notice the thread and pondered unvoting, but I thought MBL's vote would still be a reasonable move by town, would involve an MBL/Patrick or MBL/Mgm pairing (in which case we're probably screwed anyway), and I didn't want to continue prolonging this game. I'm still ready to move, and I still think CES is scum.

[Thesp]

I have to assume MBL was just trying to confuse us then.

This looks a whole lot like trying to make the facts fit the theory, rather than make the theory fit the facts.

Do you have another explanation?

I have my thoughts, but I'm not speaking for MBL. I can speak them later.

I though the vote without explanation was unusual, but reasonable enough.

Votes without an explanation are never reasonable. That comment was particularly badly placed after CES accused you of being linked to MBL. Are you trying to give him more reasons than just gut feeling or something?

This feels really, really

weird

. Why would I "place" comments? Why would I try to give someone reasons to vote for me? I don't get this at all.

[Thesp]

The thing is, if you are not trying to get people to vote you then why did you say this.

Huh? I'm confused here. This isn't making any sense to me.

Here is the accusation of the link I mentioned:

MBL must've been waiting for Thesp to come on. If Thesp had checked the thread, the game would've been over.

He's been saying this for some time. Why is it new now?

Why did you call MBL's unexplained vote reasonable, while any other unexplained comment from a player usually draws votes in mafia?

I respectfully disagree that voting without giving justification is always unreasonable. You can continue to argue your position in light of at least one counterfactual of a townie voting in a similar (albeit not exactly the same) way, or you can argue that I was unreasonable in Newbie 360 (linked above) in voting (actually lynching!) without explanation, or you can argue that perhaps it's not unreasonable always, but how MBL did it was unreasonable. To strengthen your argument so it's tenable, you also need to assert that scum are more likely to act in the manner which MBL did. I'm not certain you're anywhere near this, and this looks an awful lot like screaming "Boo, boo!" rather than being helpful.

[Thesp]

Thesp, could you refresh my memory and give (or repost) your thoughts on everyone who is not Cogito Ergo Sum?

Sure, I'll let you know where I'm at. I find Mgm very disturbing lately, I'm reasonably comfortable with you and Patrick, and uncertain about MBL (though I find his effort put in today to be very pro-town). I'm as certain as I could be that CES is scum, and I think much will be re-evaluated tomorrow. (Or, if there's no tomorrow, we're screwed and oh well.) Let me know if you need more.

Thesp, do you honestly expect me to compare possible game-deciding votes to random day one bandwagoning?

I'm not sure you read the game I linked to. It wasn't random D1 bandwagonning (I quicklynched with my vote, and none of the votes on the wagon were random), and it very well could have been game-deciding had I been wrong.

I voted the way I did to test the firmness of your vote.

This feels...

weird

.

Thesp and Patrick aren't really trying very hard, probably because if they're town they're lazy and if they're scum they don't want to do anything to jeopardize this "safe status" conferred upon them by our collective lack of suspicion.

I think I need to say something to this, because it's been brought up a lot. I feel like I have tried quite a lot in this game, though there are certainly others that have exceeded the amount of participation/effort I've been able to provide. Lately there have been a lot of mafia commitments eating up my time, and between taking over Open Game mod responsibilities and not getting night-killed in enough games recently, I haven't had the time I'd like to put into some games. Nonetheless, I've been calling out things when they catch my eye, though certainly not everythign that should catch my eye actually does. I'm sorry for not posting like I'd like to lately, and periodically in the thread. I'm trying as hard as I can with what I can. And I do feel I've caught scum in CES. (Granted, I'm pondering one other possibility, but I think it's most likely by a lot that CES is scum.)

[Thesp]

Maybe that reflects just different playstyle between me and CES rather than a possible different alignment, but it feels like he's acting in the same that ChannelDelibird was acting when we had nailed him.

I felt this

exact

way, I just knew how CES reacted the last time I compared him to CDB on something.

[Thesp]

Great! I don't know how I managed to do it, but I lost the spreadsheet file.
I'll go hunt for it, but I'm pretty sure it's not gonna get posted today.
My apologies. I hope I'll have it tracked down by monday.

You could save yourself the effort and vote CES instead right now. You'd have all night to reconstruct your spreadsheet.

[Thesp]

Or I could end the game and lose it for the town.
I do note that CES' lack of rebuttals is suspicious, but I'd rather take some more time to go over things again than to make the wrong decision.

OH MY HOLY GOODNESS HOW MUCH MORE TIME COULD YOU NEED.

I think you're stalling. What did you think of his attacks on me when I was pursuing CDB re: claim?

[Thesp]

Do you fear an MBL/Glork pairing?

Not particularly, but it can't hurt to be careful and consider it anyway.

I read this as, "Please second-guess yourself about suspicions of CES." Did anyone else?

[Thesp]

I realize I'm echoing some of what Patrick said, but...

Thesp, Glork and Patrick also show interest in lynching CES. It's a foolish to kill a scumbuddy if not doing so can win you the game instantly. (A good scum can find some other option).

What about delayed reults? What if lynching a partner would result in winning the game at the end? (After all, it doesn't matter

when

you win, as long as you win, right?) I'm just not seeing how showing interest in lynching someone (who would later turn out to be scum) would be such a bad, bad thing for scum to do to the point that they would be unlikely to do so, particularly when those who wouldn't show such interest would be seen as super-likely to be their partner by some (like yourself). Don't scum routinely attempt to show distrust of fellow scum for that reason? (The trick is weeding out what's genuine and what's not.)

CES could be voting MBL out of self-preservation, but I'm not sure he'd do that if they were buddies (it also goes the other way around, MBL voted CES with no particularly stringent reason). One of them evening out the votes almost ensures one of them gets the chop, when voting a third player into the pile of top suspects could get different results.

I've seen him ruthlessly bus a partner as scum (and his partner do the same to him) in an end-game situation. It worked - no one thought they were scum together.

[Thesp]

You should have heard the names that Glork and Patrick were calling you on AIM, thinking that you were going to vote Patrick today. They couldn't believe that you would think that Patrick would have killed Glork; and neither could I.

Turns out you didn't think that at all.

I kept checking the thread title, just assuming that anytime it'd say, "Game Over, Mafia Wins". I also thought it was amusing that the scum killed Glork over a

confirmed innocent

because he thought he'd have a better chance that way (and was probably right). Wow. (I was also saying some of those things to myself and kristocker. I was planning on saying

Vote: Mgm as The Mole

afterwards, and the like! I'd almost thought the

worst

thing for us was that Mgm was confirmed innocent!) I'm glad you made the right decision in the end.

Wow. Just wow. Well done, scum, to elude us for so long.

Also, awesome job, Glork, and many thanks for your mid-game re-read (and PBPA) that got you thinking CDB was probably scum. (I still think PBPA's are overrated, but maybe a little less so now. ) Nicely done as well, Patrick, particularly on D5, where because of how you played I began to feel much more comfortable about you (as did almost everyone), which helped us towards the win. (On that note, MrBuddyLee did indeed make it very difficult for us that day as well, with his excellent effort/play, then his erratic vote on CES which might have steered it all towards himself, which would have made things much more difficult for us!)

I'd be curious to hear from the scum on two things, if you're so inclined: 1) why did you choose each of the people for the nightkills? and 2) what did you think about the balance in this game? (I've heard it suggested that the town is very overpowered in this game, do you think that to be the case?)

On top of it all, a big thanks to Mr Stoofer for running one of the most enjoyable online games I've ever played in. Your effort is much appreciated.

See? That no lynch wasn't so bad after all...

I thought it was fairly evident (as apparently everyone else did as well) that MBL was the last scum, regardless of the no-lynch.

[Thesp]

Fritzler was a Cop

N1: Investigated Thesp - Innocent. His original choice was "Protect MBL", until I suggested he re-read his role PM.
N2: Investigated Adele - Dead.
N3: Investigated Ether - Innocent. But he died that night.

On reflection the choice to investigate the claimed cop on night 2 seems odd.

No kidding. Cops rarely (if ever) survive to the endgame - no need for the cop investigation there.

[Thesp]

I love the essence of this "metagame"--it distills to: "If MBL is accurately hunting scum, he's scum. If he's mislynching like a banshee, he's town."

Actually that's a decent way to catch lots of people, me included. I got lynched in Open 6: Nightless for it.

I apparently have the

opposite

meta. =P

[Thesp]

MrBuddyLee, why didn't you vote me to avoid the no-lynch D2?