Mafia 60: Face-to-Face - Game over!

[Glork]

EBWODP:

He seems very eager to "remind" us that he "is pro-town," as indicated in his Burden of Proficiency argument, his comment on CTD's unvote,

and his comments before the analysis that it will "hopefully win the game for the town" (which I know isn't part of this analysis, but still fits the bill with the "Look, I am pro-town!" attitude that I find so scummy)

.

[Glork]

EBWOTP: To elaborate a bit on BM's terrible "analysis" of Nightfall's play... his comments on Nightfall's actions in his initial lengthy analysis are restricted to "doesn't make a lot of sense" (Re: Nightfall's "I thought Glork and Fritz are masons") and a "stupid comment" in response to Ether.

[Glork]

EBWOQP: By the way, the significance of BM's repeated "I am pro-town" comments are in the fact that he did the same thing as scum in another (currently-running) game before he was lynched as scum. I can't find the other game in which he was scum, but his self-declarations of being town and helping the town are consistent with what I saw in this other game in which BM was scum.

MGM:

Could you please explain exactly why you thought Battle Mage made "fine post by post analyses"? Obviously, I have come to a completely different conclusion. What upsides do you see to his lengthy analysis?

[MrBuddyLee]

OK, a few things about BM's posts.

There are a few comments in there that make it appear he's actually trying to decipher relationships. Two examples:

Glork seems confident about a CDB lynch. Doesn’t even question CDB being scum. I find this quite suspicious, as the only way he could be THAT confident is if he was the last protown power role (which he wasn’t). he strongly suggests that he has a power role, and I am therefore surprised that he wasn’t killed by the scum already.

This is how I felt.

Glorks analysis reveals that he is suspicious of CDB and Zindaras now. He claims Thesp is likely protown. Yet amazingly, he consciously keeps his vote on someone he considers less likely scum. His suspicion of CES which again goes without a vote, is suspicious.

Unless this is parrotted from someone else, it's a relatively sophisticated observation. Though I do get a bit of a "cooked case" on Glork feel from a readthrough of the PBP.

And then there's the sketchy:

Note that in contrast to the card, the rules state that all cops are sane, thus MgM is proven town.

for obvious reasons.

Fritzler seems certain that Thesp is town. Fritz is NKed the following night, thus it follows that Thesp was one of his confirmed innocents. If anything, this reflects badly on him and MgM, as 50% of the scum now come up protown to cops, and so there is a greater chance of 1 of them being scum than a player who hasn’t been investigated.

This is either bad math or an attempt to mislead badly.

And then there's the significantly bad, which I'll address roundabout with a question:

BM, who caught CDB?

[Glork]

Arg. MBL, I would appreciate it if you could hold any further thoughts on BM until MGM has responded to my question. I don't want you to give him his answer (whether intentionally or accidentally).

I do see where you are coming from about those two points, MBL, but I do have a response to each of them. I simply disagree with BM's assessment of the first one, BM actually commits two scumtells here. He states that "the only way" I could be so confident is if I were scum, which is a *VERY* black-and-white proposition. He also states that if I weren't scum, and I picked out CDB accurately, I would have been killed. Not only is this another WIFOM scenario, but it also fails to address the (very likely, IMHO) possibility that

the scums, whether I am in them or not, found Fritz out as the Cop.

Then again, you're not one to think in Technicolor yourself, MBL. I made it

VERY CLEAR

not only in my lengthy analysis posts, but also in subsequent posts, that I was keeping my vote on Ether as pressure into voting, and that I would move it (to CDB) once she had posted. I even stated in Post 625 that I wanted to pressure Ether and lynch CDB. I had no intention of lynching Ether, and it was entirely a posturing maneuver. I made this very apparent, so I don't see why BM finds my Ethervote "amazing." Nevertheless, if I were to count one point in BM's favor, it would be the observation that you just brought up.

I honsestly get the feeling that MBL is intentionally playing both sides of the BM-coin so that he can decide whether he needs to bus BM or whether he can slide suspicion away from him at some point.
Still, his question at the end of his most recent post feels like a loaded question, which would point to MBLscum if BM were *town* definitely, and is at best difficult to judge if BM is scum.


MBL, I have a few questions for you, but I would like to wait until MGM has answered my questions to him, first.



In other news, I am still very frustrated with the lack of posts/contribution from Thesp and Cogito Ergo Sum.
--CES, I don't care if you're not that good at reading so-and-so. I want you to at least make an effort.
--Thesp, I just don't know what to do with you. I am

severely

disappointed in your play since the CDB lynch, and it's actually starting to make me wonder if you're not pro-town afterall. I think that, regardless of what happens today, you *will* come up as a potential lynch candidate before this game is over. You're not doing yourself any favors by sitting on your ass doing nothing.

[MrBuddyLee]

Still, his question at the end of his most recent post feels like a loaded question, which would point to MBLscum if BM were *town* definitely, and is at best difficult to judge if BM is scum.

Riiight. If you were really trying to analyze BM's play you'd see what I saw and understand why it's an important question for him to answer. If you happen to be town, reread with that question in mind and see if you can spot the problem.

IGMEOY: Glork

[Glork]

You're jumping to conclusions. I'm not saying that I believe with any certainty that it is a loaded question. It just seems like one to me. And no, I'm not seeing what you're getting at. Surprise surprise. You're being cryptic again, and I have no idea what you're talking about again. And I have no idea if you're just spouting more crap like the whole "CDB did something naughty. You guys find it because you're lazier than I am" bit again.

[MrBuddyLee]

Sorry, can't post anything definitively til everyone answers your pop quizzes, wake me up at the bell for recess plz.

[CrashTextDummie]

Finished my read. The game got a lot more thick during the last 20 pages, which resulted in me basing my analysis more on general feel then particular posts:

Pages 41-63

Only one post of note from

ChannelDelibird

:

I don't see Mgmscum. I am still confident of Thespscum. Best guess for buddies are Ether and CES/Fritzler.

Which isn't worth much. Experience tells me that one of his buddies is probably in this list, but I'm not willing to venture down this path of WIFOM at this point.

Nightfall

- I actually started to waver a bit when it comes to him. Post 1111 sounds like legitimate confusion to me. I may be prejudiced when it comes to this particular tell for Nightfall, because I've wrongfully mistaken this kind of confusion as a scumtell for him before when he was actually town, though. In any case, it wasn't enough to sway me, and his defeatist attitude and general unwillingness to help the town on D4 is not the only reason.

At the start I really thought that Andrew was scummy, and when he turned up town I was truely surprised and I became a little doubtful of my abilities.

Why I am pro Ether lynch is because of a few things. At the very start of the game Ether seemed to defend Andrew to the point that it looked almost as if she "knew" he would turn out to be town.

This still doesn't ring true to me. It feels like he was playing both sides. I can't comprehend a townie having this mindset.

This, combined with his link to CDB and other points brought forward, makes it very likely in my mind that he is scum. I support his lynch.

Cogito Ergo Sum

- He got very talkative (borderline defensive) on D4 when under pressure, which is more of a scum-tell for him as far as I'm concerned. In my experience, he tends to care a lot less when he's vanilla. His reaction to CDB's fake claim was the one I liked the least. Reaction to Fritz's nightkill sounds phoney. Didn't like his behavior on D3 in general (particuarly his insistence to vote Thesp), really.

I'd have to do some more reading to figure out if he could be scum with Nightfall, but independently, I wouldn't mind him being lynched either.

Glork

- I've pretty much ruled him out as scum. I still find it highly unlikely that he was busing CDB. Sounded very genuine in his exchange with MBL. Voting behavior and scum hunting approach seems internally consistent to me. I'd lynch half the town before even considering him.

Mgm

- Continues to make no sense to me at all. His views and opinions seem to be diametrically opposed to those of most of the town (and certainly to mine), which became especially apparent during the CDB lynch. If he's scum, he's playing an incredibly bold game. The wildcard.

MrBuddyLee

- Probably scum. His behavior on the CDB wagon (hinting at a case, yet challenging others to actually make it) felt highly manipulative to me, not to mention like an effective way of bussing. There's a lot of spin to some of his posts, in the sense that he seems to bend his interpretations of the mafia's behavior to suit his purposes (Post 1404 is a good example, but he started doing it a lot earlier in posts I'm too lazy to dig up at this point). His case against Glork didn't convince me (MBL-scum deliberately challenging Glork wouldn't surprise me at all, by the way, considering their past history).

If Nightfall isn't lynched today, it has to be him.

Patrick

- I don't have much to say about him. It's pretty clear that he's town.

Thesp

- The driving force behind the CDB lynch in my mind. I still haven't completely ruled out the chance that he was busing, but it's a very small chance. I also find myself in agreement with his suspicions today. Probably pro-town.

That's it. If there are any questions, I'll be happy to answer them.

Are we in any particular hurry to lynch Battle Mage? Cause if we're not, I'd rather poke at MBL for a start.

Vote: MBL

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Fine, Glork, I'll give you some content. I'll poke some (of the more obvious) holes in BM's analysis.

CES is reluctant to concede that CDB could be scum on Page 7.

Factually incorrect. I can't find anything on page 7 and I can't find anything in my first 40 posts.

Claims that it can be proven, when CES is experienced enough to realise that this is not necessarily the case.

Wrong. Her role could be proven and it was.

MGM notices that CES shows a strong reluctance to vote for Glork. Page 26.

He ignores my excellent rebuttal.

CES criticises those pushing the Thesp wagon-however Glorks name is suspiciously exempt from this criticism.

I don't have a clue where he got this from.

CES tries hard to dissuade Zindaras from voting MgM, then when questioned, backtracks.

Claiming to be 90% sure is not backtracking in my book.

Glork reacts violently, even offering to die today instead of CES.

Not true.

BM is actively lying and deceiving to paint me as scum (with Glrok as partner).

[Mgm]

MGM:

Could you please explain exactly why you thought Battle Mage made "fine post by post analyses"? Obviously, I have come to a completely different conclusion. What upsides do you see to his lengthy analysis?

No, I was talking about Nightfall's posts, not BM's.

[Battle Mage]

hmm, let me put it another way. perhaps you are right, that Nightfall felt no pressure to distance from CDB. However, would he really buddy up to him that much? the answer is obviously no, unless you think that Nightfall is the worst anti-town player in the world, who has no idea of how to play the game.

I think your analysis is the wrong way around. if Nightfall wanted to protect CDB, he'd be as likely (if not more so) to protect him within his LoS (as that is what most players concentrate on).

95% sure? on what? rofl. the fact that Nightfall

may or may not

have been supporting CDB, which was

possibly

a genuine attempt to protect a scumbuddy.
Im going to laugh so hard if you come up town.

In response to your criticisms of my analysis, ill reiterate that it was literally, my thoughts as i read through the thread. inevitably some of it is wrong, and yet its good as it allows the town to track my thoughts as i read through. it also makes it easy to see why CES is the play for today.
Until someone points out what Nightfall has actually done, its hard for me to respond to suspicions, as it seems that most of the posts about him were lost in the crash.

its posts like these that make me so sure that you and CES are scumbuddies. not only have you appeared to be joined at the hip for this game, but you have also neglected to try and lynch him, even though

he has spent the majority of the duration of the game at the top of your suspects list.

HoS: Glork

BM

<<quote [1549] deleted>>

[Thesp]

Sorry for my absence lately, the end of the month is killer in the title/escrow business.

could you please comment on my analysis, seeing as not only did it take along time to write

That doesn't mean it's worth commenting on.

I don't really understand Thesp's accompanying reason for his vote on Battle Mage. Are you saying everything written in red by Nightfall is scummy?

No, I'd missed this:

On the topic of Fritz I must ask, why of all the talk about how I am “lurking” or “not bothering to post” and of how CDB is “attempting to make it look like he is contributing” why isn’t more attention being given to the fact that Fritz too has contributed very little?

This is

textbook

deflection,

especially

since it's been shown that CDB was scum and Fritzler wasn't.

Happy with my vote, ready for a lynch.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

I just noticed this.

Lots of communication between Glork and CES. Im not sure what that means, as I doubt those 2 as scum would be so openly like scumbuddies. Could suggest that Glork is protown.

He's already decided I'm scum 6 lines into his analysis. This is typical scum going after a target (as opposed to town looking for scum). I even make sense as a target(I'm probably the easiest lynch here(apart from BM), ceteris paribus.

[Battle Mage]

I just noticed this.

Lots of communication between Glork and CES. Im not sure what that means, as I doubt those 2 as scum would be so openly like scumbuddies. Could suggest that Glork is protown.

He's already decided I'm scum 6 lines into his analysis. This is typical scum going after a target (as opposed to town looking for scum). I even make sense as a target(I'm probably the easiest lynch here(apart from BM), ceteris paribus.

dont be ridiculous. do you see anyone here other than me who wants to lynch you? i sure as hell dont. stop playing for the sympathy vote.
as for me asserting you could be scum, its called testing a hypothesis. ive got nothing to gain by getting you lynched as town. my analysis was to whether you were scum, or whether there was a better lynch.

<<quote moved>>

[Patrick]

Other than you, I can see Thesp who has expressed a strong desire to see CES dead, MBL who has been suspicious of him for a while now, CTD who has him moderately high on his LoS. And nobody strongly thinks he's town. So yes I would agree with the point CES made there actually.

Happy to

Vote: Battle Mage

which is lynch -1. You should claim.

[Glork]

Sweet. Now we just need CTD to drop the hammer or MBL to finish off his scumbuddy.

[MrBuddyLee]

OK, my question didn't get answered.

BM's PBP demonstrated that his top scum candidates were the first three or four people on the CDB-wagon. Surely one or two of us demonstrated proper motives in going after the guy?

Finding the CDB wagon just about entirely scummy is likely a sign of someone who needs to keep their options open re: who they could conceivably vote for. This suggests to me that BM is scum and his partner is one of the people he doesn't suspect, who didn't vote for CDB.

[Mgm]

Finding the CDB wagon just about entirely scummy is likely a sign of someone who needs to keep their options open re: who they could conceivably vote for. This suggests to me that BM is scum and his partner is one of the people he doesn't suspect, who didn't vote for CDB.

If someone who keeps their options open is scummy, you are a textbook example. You've got plenty of suspicions, but still no vote.

Just commit to something already.

[MrBuddyLee]

Mgm, nice misdirect. Do you think it's reasonable for BM to find the entire CDB-wagon scummy?

[Mr Stoofer]

Vote Count

Battle Mage: 4 (CES Glork Thesp Patrick)
MrBuddyLee: 2 (Mgm CrashTextDummie )
Cogito Ergo Sum: 1 (Battle Mage)


Not voting: MBL

Looking for

5

votes for a lynch!

[Battle Mage]

What is there to claim?
there is only townies and scum left as far as im aware.
and yep, you guessed it. im a genuine townie.

[Battle Mage]

it should also be noted my suspicions have changed slightly now. its sort of good that im dying, as there are so many scummy looking people, tomorrow is gonna be damn hard for the town.
still, at least ive made some contribution to the game.
BM

[Mgm]

Mgm, nice misdirect. Do you think it's reasonable for BM to find the entire CDB-wagon scummy?

(Correction: the first 3 or 4, as you stated earlier, is not the entire wagon.) Of course not. I have no doubt that at least one of his buddies joined the wagon to come across as innocent, but in general, joining the wagon on a confirmed scum makes someone less of a suspect.

That still doesn't mean you can post this, say "nice misdirect" and avoid addressing my post, though. Stop keeping your options open.

[Patrick]

MBL, he hasn't really found the entire CDB wagon scummy. He's expressed suspicion of Thesp, Glork, CES. He says he thinks I'm town, he's stated that you are the most protown looking player here, and obviously Fritz was town. It would be fair to say that you've also been attacking CES and Glork pretty heavily, and you haven't dismissed Thesp as a possibility for later.

If Battle Mage is scum with someone off the CDB wagon as you think, then the only options are CTD and MgM. I can't easily imagine Ether's attacks on Nightfall are bussing, though having just screwed up in lights out to scum who threw their entire scumteam under the bus, I'm feeling pretty paranoid. So I take it you think BM and MgM are the scumteam.