Team Mafia: White Flag Mafia

Llamarble · Post Post #9 (isolation #0) » Tue May 10, 2011 11:01 am

/confirm

Llamarble · Post Post #19 (isolation #1) » Sun May 15, 2011 11:25 am

THERE CAN BE ONLY ONE LLAMA
I PICK HIM
VOTE: LLAMARBLE BANDWAGON GO GO GO!

Llamarble · Post Post #22 (isolation #2) » Sun May 15, 2011 12:44 pm

Whoever is scum chose to be, so:
Why did each of you choose this game / why should I believe you're town?
Who are your teammates?

I picked this game because I like the "pulling tells off mafia lovers" concept and I'm not power-hungry.
I'm town because I like it significantly more than being scum; I'm a scientist and my enjoyment of mafia is the fun of reading people / solving a unique type of puzzle.
I like the 'convincing other people to lynch who you want them to' aspect as well, though I guess that applies to both alignments.

I'm with Conspiracy, SSBF, and Animorph.

FoS

:
Sotty, DGB, & Equinox for having strong scumgames. And Chris B for being possibly an alt to mask a strong scumgame.
Equinox utterly hosed a town I was part of and the other 2 have scummies for proficiency at evil.

Llamarble · Post Post #32 (isolation #3) » Sun May 15, 2011 3:27 pm

Wiki / meta corroborates Thor's story -> townpoints -> IT'S SHEEPIN' TIME.
VOTE: InflatablePie

Llamarble · Post Post #77 (isolation #4) » Sun May 15, 2011 7:21 pm

mith wrote:
Llmarble and Thor665: You claim to prefer being town - is there anything in your meta you can point to that confirms this in any way? (On a related and more general note, I think DGB is the only one in this game I have played with before, so I don't expect I will pay much attention to claims of meta unless they are backed up with linked evidence.)

On Thor: His wiki comments after his mafia win (mini 957) verified the being town at heart thing & his wiki was last edited in october.
For me the best verification I could find was here.
451 contains:

Llamarble wrote: Also VT happens to be my favorite normal role.

454 contains:

Llamarble wrote:VT is very "pure." I play because I like trying to read people and I like trying to get people to agree with me, which is all a VT does.
Also I like that if I draw the scumNK I have done a good thing.
I certainly enjoy other roles too though.

Which verifies my nonaversion to mountainousness.
I've probably mentioned my preference for being town elsewhere, but that was the easiest to find. Seems like that would be a silly thing to lie about anyway.

I shall analyze the evening's goings on with fresher eyes.

Llamarble · Post Post #91 (isolation #5) » Mon May 16, 2011 6:59 am

I haven't found the secretIPscumtell myself. I have some idea what sort of thing it could be though.
I was mainly getoutofrvs sheeping Thorprobtown after my attempt to wagon myself generated stunningly minimal interest.

I think Equinox is town; among other things "Town for being on the same wavelength as me" isn't logic I've seen scum use yet.
And by extension Thor is town for wavelength sharing with Equinox + his respectable townpref meta.
I'll be wary though since Equinox is like my worst false negative ever.

Klazam is scummy for "look at me I'm not sheeping" and lowhangingfruitlogic.
VOTE: Klazam L - 3 I think
Sociopath is my first guess for a Klazambuddy for voting him & voting him again while not doing much else, but we'll see how things shake out.

I like Llamafluff for town too. LLAMALLIANCE.

Llamarble · Post Post #92 (isolation #6) » Mon May 16, 2011 7:12 am

@Mith: Haven't gotten strong reads out of most of the answers themselves; there haven't been a lot of "I would nevar pick scum!!' answers and I'd need to know teammembers to compare with anyway. Teamclaiming is clearly pro-town since it helps people read your team, but I'm guessing the issue is some combo of worries about success-lynches and giving away scummembers.

Llamarble · Post Post #94 (isolation #7) » Mon May 16, 2011 7:33 am

BTW my access is going to be limited 17th-22nd, but I'll still come in and post now and then.

Llamarble · Post Post #121 (isolation #8) » Mon May 16, 2011 1:07 pm

Sotty7 wrote:
Why should I believe you are town is a a filler question if ever I saw one. Poor. Also passing on the last question.

It's not filler because people chose their own roles and making people talk about how they made their choice has potential to be revealing.

Llamarble, why did you post this “serious” vote and yet keep your RVS vote on yourself? I was under the impression you were a good player, what is your rationale for voting yourself and have you done it before?

I thought I'd wagon myself to spur discussion. I haven't done it before.
And why does this bother you now as opposed to right after I did it?
I simply didn't really contemplate moving my vote when I posted my meta-thoughts.

Pie and DH copying Soico's RVS was really bizarre. I don't like it much. Klazam's vote is probably the worst of the bunch though. He also completely ignores the “super secret scum tell wagon” on Pie.

You don't like Klazam & I think he's scum too. So why am I scum again? Your thought process feels incongruous.

Equi defending Chris B outta the gates is also ick. What was the harm of letting him speak for himself?

Equinox Post 34 wrote:People on the mith wagon: Do you disagree with me and Thor665? Who what when where and why?

What's to disagree with here? You guys didn't give a reason yet.
Damn Equi.... What's with the pole up your ass? I don't think I have ever seen you so up tight. This doesn't give me good vibes at all.

I get the feeling that the Pie wagon was built off BS by Equi in an attempt to start a relatively serious wagon early. If this is the case I want to see her reads of the people who joined her, the people who didn't and the people who out right ignored it. If it's
not
the case and there actually was a scum tell that Pie posted in the confirmation stage I want to hear it. I pretty much agreed with Llama in that I had no clue what you were doing and so just surmised there wasn't anything and it was all for REACTIONS. Either way the jig is up since you're not voting him anymore.

"I noticed a supersecretmetatell" is a weird BS thing to make up, but yeah if it was BS, it was townish BS (except she's stuck to it and Thor apparently also found it). Also you're complaining about Equinox complaining about the wagon you just finished complaining about. Again I am seeing 'this is something I can jab at' instead of coherenttownperspective.

VOTE: Sotty7
Lots of painty stuff, lack of coherent gameperspective / reaching weird conclusions, minorlurk -> catchup gameentry.
Yeah OMGUS. Heh.

Llamarble · Post Post #163 (isolation #9) » Mon May 16, 2011 7:45 pm

On stuff pointed at me:
@Llamafluff: I'm not sure what points you're accusing me of ignoring;
She said my question "why should I believe you're town" was useless and asked why I didn't move my vote off myself when I talked meta.
I answered both those questions. My post was primarily concerned with her scumminess.

@Sotty 149: By 'why should I believe you're town' I was looking for people to give reasons they would choose a town role over a scum role.
Hence "Why did each of you choose this game / why should I believe you're town?"
Any team with 1-3 scum role PMs had members opt into being town/scum, so meta suggesting which you'd pick is useful.

@Mith: Some people have stronger meta-arguments for their towniness than others.
I substantially prefer town, but scumroles aren't anathema to me. Hence I couldn't point to meta saying "ZOMG I HATE BEING SCUM."
My research on Thor validated his claim about his 'townie at heart' meta and I reported as much.
So maybe he gets more townpoints than I do, but my point was to help identify alignments, not prove myself 100% town.

I'll give Sotty's longer 139 its own response post. And then bedtime.

Llamarble · Post Post #164 (isolation #10) » Mon May 16, 2011 9:21 pm

Response to Sotty 139:

Sotty7 wrote: Actually, talk me though everyone's answer and what impression it gave you of them.

Ugh, I'm too tired. Anyway, I mentioned here that most of the answers weren't ultrahelpful by themselves especially because people wouldn't teamclaim.

Everyone ignored you. What does that tell you? Also did you realize that I hadn't posted until just a minute ago? I was away most of Sunday night prepping for an interview I had today which is why I was delayed to the game after my RVS.

The fact that you made a serious post while keeping a ridiculous vote on yourself suggests to me a disconnect. You followed this up with your first serious vote being a sheep of the Equi/Thor push on Pie. Yeah, I wasn't impressed.

Uh, everyone ignoring me obviously tells me nothing of consequence.
You posted 10 minutes after my self vote without comment on it so I wanted to know why the fact that I self voted became interesting later.
As for 'a disconnect,' no significant thought went into considering a change of vote there.
I posted my meta thoughts and FoSed people I thought might have picked scum.
"WHY DIDN'T HE X" is easy scumpainting logic because it is readily wielded against townies and sounds logically sound.
In my and most other cases, the answer is "I didn't think about it at the time."

And yeah, my strongest read at that point was moderate town on Thor who requested a sheep.
WTF could I more usefully have done with my vote there? Put it on the toothless Mith wagon?

Walk me though this cause I'm not getting it.

Basically you thought I was scum who was voting for someone you found scummy (Klazam).

Llamarble Post 121 wrote:"I noticed a supersecretmetatell" is a weird BS thing to make up, but yeah if it was BS, it was townish BS (except she's stuck to it and Thor apparently also found it). Also you're complaining about Equinox complaining about the wagon you just finished complaining about. Again I am seeing 'this is something I can jab at' instead of coherenttownperspective.

This is a lot of empty words of nothing. Why is it townies BS? As for the complaining deal what are you talking about?

You said you disliked most of the votes on the Mith wagon.
Then you say you dislike Equinox for confronting people on the Mith wagon as to why they picked that wagon over IP's.
Confronting people on the Mith wagon is absolutely reasonable if you dislike the votes on it, so you calling Eq out for it feels jabby and nontownsensical.

And using BS to push an early RVS wagon seems pro-town to me; the point of that stage of the game is to get things moving for read-generation.
When I see somebody doing something I think is pro-town, I don't typically go 'deliver yo reads immediately.'

Llamarble · Post Post #179 (isolation #11) » Tue May 17, 2011 5:24 am

@Sotty:
Answers were nonuseless but not awesomeuseful and I'm already behind on deep game analysis so I'm spending my next gametime on that; there are a lot of players I haven't properly studied yet. Thor's reasoning for why he'd pick town was strongest. Uncritically? I went and checked it. It's not like I'm calling him confirmed town.
As for following up, the fact that you're well respected as scum does add to my belief that your team would want you as scum.
I felt self-voting could help get the game out of RVS.
Again, I didn't think about moving my vote. I put it down someplace I thought could produce discussion and started thinking about the game.
I found it reasonable Equinox might have some kind of nonrevealable tell on IP due to the mechanics of teammafia.
Thor and Equinox _both_ claiming to have found it made it seem much more likely even though I couldn't. (I have no idea IP's teammates)
Being in individualtellsmode does explain lack of coherenttownperspective. I'll think more about that.
Again, Equinox didn't like the parroting on the Mith wagon either, and was trying to interact with its members.
If I were Sottytown and didn't like the parroting, I'd have liked Equinox for wavelengthsharing on disliking the Mith wagon parroting.

Llamarble · Post Post #186 (isolation #12) » Tue May 17, 2011 7:12 am

A logic structure that's easy to use for fake scumhunting isn't automatically totally useless.
Also there's a difference between omitting a behavior and having the opposite of the selfconsistent impression of something.

Time to fly!

Llamarble · Post Post #187 (isolation #13) » Tue May 17, 2011 7:14 am

I'll do thorough reads on all these miniwagons next time I get access.

Llamarble · Post Post #217 (isolation #14) » Wed May 18, 2011 6:57 am

For one thing I am a pretty threshold labely person in general.
I wasn't sure how many votes Klazam had before I voted so I went and checked and the information is useful so I mentioned it.

I already reported what wiki/meta:

On Thor: His wiki comments after his mafia win (mini 957) verified the being town at heart thing & his wiki was last edited in october.

Marf what?

Also as I've said, I got a strong townread on Equinox that was totally wrong once, so I'm going to be wary.
I'm a substantially better player than I was then, but fool me twice, etc.
I addressed the 2 points Shotty made in that post. If you think I dodged / unsatisfactorily addressed something, point it out.
Yes, sometimes suspects suspect suspects. There aren't many "ONLY SCUM EVER DO THIS RAWR" moves.
I read Sotty as scum doing that rather than town.

My little birdies don't like Fluff post 73 for 'I'm still right but I'm not pursuing this anymore.'
Which makes my little birdies on the same wavelength as Equinox and furthers her town-ness.

@Equinox: I think when he said "IP + Eq are out as a team" he was ruling the pair out, not saying he thought that was the pairing.

I'll quickread DGB now and then be off for most of the day.

Llamarble · Post Post #219 (isolation #15) » Wed May 18, 2011 7:16 am

DGB makes a lot of sense to me overall. I like her readslist, her Sociopath case, and her Equinox townread.
Quickread is as town, but I'll deepanalyze later.

In fact, my reads are out of date enough that I'll

Unvote

Llamarble · Post Post #269 (isolation #16) » Thu May 19, 2011 7:10 am

The votes for me are badly reasoned.
Thor is scum though. Yeah he has townpref meta, but he's certainly not _bad_ at scum.
"I'll scum this game since I'm good at it, I haven't been scum in awhile, and I get bonus wifom" makes sense.
I noticed other stuff including excessive eagerness to lock in lynch wagons, lack of casemaking and terseness,
but I have to go so I'll properly make my case later.
VOTE: Thor

Llamarble · Post Post #274 (isolation #17) » Thu May 19, 2011 8:03 am

Thor's wagons:
Pie, Klazam, and DGB. The biggest wagons.
And he made efforts to help each go to lynch and then abandoned them for the next promising one.
And he is all pokes instead of deeply thought out insightful cases.

Specific (as opposed to the above holistic) scumtells & relational stuff when I have more than a couple minutes free.

Llamarble · Post Post #288 (isolation #18) » Thu May 19, 2011 9:48 pm

@Sevei:
I have limited access right now but I think I actually did address your L - 3 thing. I pointed it out because I checked before voting and thought the information would be useful. I point out lynch threshold often. Your other point was about me "trying to look like scumhunting anxiously," which I found beneath response. What looks like scumhunting is often scumhunting. I find my time far more usefully spent scumhunting than letting myself be locked down by answering every little nitpick with an explanation from first principles. People realize I'm town a lot faster when I'm helping find scum anyway. You said I hadn't mentioned DGB, which I think was true but I have since read her. I don't like this wagon and would appreciate no hammer at least until after I've gone home (evening 22nd) and really thoroughly evaluated the game.

Llamarble · Post Post #324 (isolation #19) » Sat May 21, 2011 7:49 am

@Eq: I posted you were looking town but I was going to consciously keep my guard higher than normal once, and then people talked about it so I ended up explaining several times. Hardly "constant paranoia." Also I saw that you didn't like DGB's townread on you, but I disagreed with your dislike. I think "I am not obvtown" is something very hard / weird for scum to say, so DGB's response after made plenty sense to me as well.

Example of me saying basically the same thing about Equinox in The Mafia with the Hydras:

Greymarble (GreyICE + me) wrote:
I think Balam (Equinox + Agar + Rayfrost) is town at this point, but I've had a strong townread on equinoxscum before.

Tomorrow night I'll be back and catching up!

Llamarble · Post Post #383 (isolation #20) » Thu May 26, 2011 1:45 pm

The reason I didn't get in before threadlock was that my flight got canceled and I was at the airport without internet overnight.
I ended up getting back Monday evening tired and sleeping pretty much immediately.
Anyway time for catchup!

Llamarble · Post Post #386 (isolation #21) » Thu May 26, 2011 3:12 pm

Thor665 wrote:@IP - you're certainly entitled to that opinion but considering the timing of the discussion...naaaah. I stand by that read.

I don't really like the Sotty or DH votes, can those wagons die please?

Putting DGB to L-1 yesterday would have been tech. Putting her on it today should at least get other people to comment on the wagon more, so it's at least partly tech.

Pushing scumwagon? Check. Making it difficult for himself to get onto potential counterwagons? Check.
DGB also pinned her counterwagoning / lynchavoidance hopes on the Thor wagon.
Thor is going back on my townlist.

Klazam was scummy early for "look at me I'm not sheeping the IPie wagon!" and lowhangingfruitlogic.
He followed with:
'Socio is scummy for voting me without much logic and not posting much content; everybody else is null-town based on oneliners.'
Then it's chainsaws wheee as he defends DGB and pushes on SocioPath, saying Socio is trying to paint DGB as scummy to discredit her attacks on him.

DGB puts him in the hybrid column and likes Llamafluff's aggressive jump on him, which reminds me EXACTLY of how Yos treated his Darlabuddy in Dilemma mafia.

As for IPie's observation:

TheButtonmen wrote:
D1VC2:

Klazam (3):, LlamaFluff, Socio, Llamarble
InflatablePie (2):, Thor, Klazam
Socio (2): DGB, Equinox
Equinow (1): ChrisB
Llamarble (1): Sotty
DH (1): IP
LlamaFluff (1): DH

Not Voting: mith, Sevei

With 13 alive it's 7 to lynch.

Shortly after this, Thor moved his vote to Klazam and called for a quickwagon. Klazam's Sociovote comes after that.
So at the time of Klazam's Sociovote Socio was the only player other than Klazam with more than one voter.
I don't find scum putting votes near each other unlikely in that situation.
And as it's starting to look like DGB is going down:

Klazam wrote:All right. The buzz in my hive(My teammates, if its not being obvious) is telling me to look @ DGB.

I'm looking and i'm finding DGB very unreadable.

Am i correct in assuming that the main case on DGB is mainly about how DGB cannot say Sociopath is town? What else? If you all could clarify this, it would be awesome.

Your teammates told you to look at DGB? They had no observations, just wanted you to look?
And you "find her very unreadable" but are defending her / requesting case clarification / attacking her attacker as twisting her words??
Nonono.
VOTE: Klazam

I suppose I'll dump this and keep analyzing.

Llamarble · Post Post #388 (isolation #22) » Thu May 26, 2011 4:36 pm

Equinox is even more town.
She was an important/pivotal vote in helping lynch DGB and IPie's logic about scum not votepiling applies well to her.
Also she didn't know how many votes it took to hammer, which is a weird thing for scum to invent & a much more likely error for town than for scum.
She used the "X shares my wavelength" logic that has been a favorite towntell of mine lately.
The "secretmetatell" business is weird/clever misdirection if she's scum.
And she's trying to figure out the game / scumhunting / all the usual nice towntelly things.

@DH: It seems very likely to me at least one scum was not on the wagon. Still loading game into brain though.

Socio makes an interesting case against Mith so he's up next.

Llamarble · Post Post #390 (isolation #23) » Thu May 26, 2011 5:06 pm

I had limited access the whole time I was in California and I got home late due to flight issues so I never got to deepananalyze before the hammer.
I was expecting D1 to last closer to 2 weeks than 1 so my limited availability 17-22 would be a non-issue, but then it didn't and TORNADOES.

A thought:
The lover mechanic means we have to hit only one of the 2 scum, so drawing a network with edges representing buddypairs and nodes representing individuals and erasing lines between unlikely scumbuddies may generate a strategy whereby we can reduce things down to a very small number of viable scumteams with a couple of lynches. I'll look into this more once I'm done catching up.

Llamarble · Post Post #396 (isolation #24) » Thu May 26, 2011 6:05 pm

Uh, for one thing helping lynch scum is like one of the least ambiguous towntells, so yeah that matters.
The Equinox snowshadow thing didn't stop me from correctly townreading you in The Mafia With the Hydras and it hasn't stopped me from thinking you're town here.
It's more a pridewound that I remember when I play with you.
And I think I am significantly better than I was then at grasping which of "all the usual nice towntelly things" are genuine anyway.

I talked about you because I'm catching up and reading everybody (people I thought most about yesterday first and now Mith because I wondered why you didn't die after reading you and then read SocioPath and understood his dying made sense and I'm now studying his case against Mith because we should respect the dead's reads more than we do), not because you voted me.

Llamarble · Post Post #397 (isolation #25) » Thu May 26, 2011 6:11 pm

Also that whole "I'm not obvtown rawr" thing is NOT a scumreaction. Scum WANT to be part of a townalliance.
I feel ridiculous arguing with you that reading you as town is legitimate.
It's like scum who argue that you're finding them scummy for the wrong reasons, except backwards.

Llamarble · Post Post #398 (isolation #26) » Thu May 26, 2011 7:10 pm

Ooh I like Mith for insightfulness and game-figuring-out efforts. Serious sense being made there. Example:
He dislikes people who do the "You like A & B for scum so why vote for A not B" thing and then catches DGB at it and it contributes to his scumread of her.
That Socio case against him is really pretty toothless on close examination; his rebuttal is good.
His DGB vote is late on the wagon but it seems genuine.

Llamarble · Post Post #413 (isolation #27) » Fri May 27, 2011 7:03 pm

Chris B is like Equinox is lying scum rawrawrawr!!
And then votes me while apparently still "wanting Equinox to hang."
And says he's suspicious of DGB but won't hammer and asks everyone voting DGB to clarify cases.
Scum request case clarification to set things up for buddies to defend and to get townies to defend their buddy / make cases against townies.
But there was townish (weird logic but looked like he believed it and hard for scum to asspull) "okay Equinox + IPie" "No wait Equinox but not IPie" train of thought and "DGBlynch will provide information" doesn't feel like how scum talk about buddies. Also some generally towntoney stuff.
Weak townread. I think his future posting will clarify whether he could have faked that stuff.

@IPie: I'm planning to draw a network diagram once I finish reading everyone in ISO.

Llamarble · Post Post #414 (isolation #28) » Fri May 27, 2011 8:20 pm

I wonder if Sevei hammered before I got back from CA intending to lock me in as DGBprotector and use her DGBMarble scumcomboz theorem to lynch me today.
Meh scum never actually plan that elaborately, but Sevei is still scum.

Yeah she was on DGB's wagon, but she was hammer and there wasn't a significant challenger-wagon, which has me leaning toward 1 on 1 off. The only thing she had said about DGB before hammering was that she looked like my buddy because we hadn't said much about each other and she didn't buy the llamamixup thing. The rest of her posting is a weak case against me which is all very 'things I can attack town for' oriented. Her professed strength of read doesn't make townsense considering how barebones / flimsy her logic was. I was scum for ... discussing meta and labeling an L - 3 vote. She harps on DGB and I not talking about each other when I've :barely talked about half the people in the thread: because of my limited access after the first 2 days of D1. Picking DGB as llamabuddy and sticking hard enough to the idea to hammer early off primarily associative tells D1 makes me think "FoS buddy by association to townie who I will call scum, then when townie flips town I'm not tied to that read whee!" mode. Which is a mildly complex plan but I recall having seen (done?) similar before. Then her buddy was the only viable wagon and she was like "I guess she's on my scumlist so I'll look bad if I don't hammer."

VOTE: Sevei
Klazam + Sevei is my best guess atm; they hardly mention each other and DGB has one as hybrid and one as scummylurky and they're 1on1off her wagon.

Onto DH next.

Llamarble · Post Post #426 (isolation #29) » Sat May 28, 2011 10:26 am

When I read DGB (partially because you mentioned I hadn't and partially because she was a topic of interest), I said:

Llamarble wrote:DGB makes a lot of sense to me overall. I like her readslist, her Sociopath case, and her Equinox townread.
Quickread is as town, but I'll deepanalyze later.

When somebody asks you for a read on somebody else, they're typically expecting or at least will welcome some reasoning to go with it.
And noting the reasons for my thoughts was partially for my own benefit anyway so I'd recall them later come catchuptime.
HOW is this a "long ISO/case??"

And DGB's discussion of me was requested by Sotty.

YOU'RE ARGUING THAT WHEN ASKED ABOUT SOMEBODY RESPONDING WITH A READ AND AN EXPLANATION IS A SCUMBUDDYTELL.

DGB didn't read me as town. She said I did scummy things and townie things, which from scum usually means "I'll mislynch you later."

DH is next on my analist.

Llamarble · Post Post #427 (isolation #30) » Sat May 28, 2011 10:27 am

Ah, pagesplit makes that look weird. ^^ You is Sevei.

Llamarble · Post Post #430 (isolation #31) » Sat May 28, 2011 1:24 pm

DH seems pretty noncommital and gives tepid reads / doesn't seem to care deeply who gets lynched; the post with the +1s & -1s is an example.
Doesn't interact much with the DGB wagon, which is the main thing going. DGB is on but not on top of his scumlist most of the day.
Mith makes some good points.
Not as scummy as Klazam / Sevei though.

I like Fluff ISO 20; echoes my feelings on Sevei. Other stuff is also pretty good.
IPie is a strong townread.
Sotty gets some points for her role in the DGBlynch but doubts linger.

TOWN:
Llamarble
Equinox
InflatablePie
Mith
Thor
Fluff
ChrisB

Sotty

DH

Klazam
Sevei
:SCUM

Llamarble · Post Post #433 (isolation #32) » Sat May 28, 2011 6:02 pm

Sevei wrote:
I understand responding to someone who asks you your opinion on another player. HOWEVER, I don't understand why, if you think someone is town, that response requires a comment about looking up their ISO, discussing their ISO/play, and then concluding that "Yep, she's town" RATHER than just saying "Because I think she's town." Going to that much trouble to justify a town read? That's pretty scummy.

I had limited access from 2 days after the start of D1 until its completion. Consequently, I had hardly looked at DGB's (or most other players', for that matter) posting before your comment. I find you scummy because you link me to DGB for having barely discussed her when there are 7-8 other players to whom that logic applies equally. And I didn't have a read already in my head that I could just dump into the thread, so I read her, mentioning things of note.

DGB's response to Sotty about you was loaded with fence-sitting about you, which you yourself just pointed out. She hadn't had problems pointing out anything she saw that was scummy about other people WITHOUT BEING ASKED, so why did she have to be asked about you before seeing not one but several scummy things about your play? She only commented on you because she was forced to do so in the first place, and somehow despite seeing several scummy things about you was still only able to come to a very inconclusive thesis about your alignment, and despite pointing out how you were pretty scummy, tried to redirect the conversation to another player in the SAME POST. Ergo, you're her scumbuddy.

This is all can-wield-against-almost-anyone scumlogic. DGB made points for and against the towniness of Me, Llamafluff, IPie, and Sotty. Probably she just hadn't looked deeply at me yet (consistent with llama-confusion, which seems an odd thing to fake) and after being asked to was doing so, laying down a temporary pseudotownread and poking what she could. And calling "I'm going to continue attacking the person I've been attacking" redirection is :asspulling:

Llamarble · Post Post #434 (isolation #33) » Sat May 28, 2011 8:22 pm

Okay, if people want to start listing unlikely scumteams with good reasons I think that will be helpful.
Groundrule is nobody can rule out a team that includes themselves.
We will probably have to get rid of a fairly significant number to start seeing real benefits like having to ponder a small number of teampossibilities,
but agreeing on a few players as highprobtown and simply not considering scumteams that include them will speed things along.
If the game continues for more days the method will be more powerful. If it seems useful I'll post the list near the end of each day in case I get NKed.
Nothing will be irreversible and disagreement on a pairing being unlikely will result in the edge being restored to the graph.
Or if we can't agree on enough to make it useful I may just do the whole business myself.
Here's the graph with no edges removed 'cause it's pretty!

Llamarble · Post Post #476 (isolation #34) » Tue May 31, 2011 4:06 pm

I suppose trying to use the groupbrain for scumhunting isn't so productive of an idea.
I was thinking there were so many possibilities I didn't want to deal with all of them myself, but meh.

LlamaFluff wrote:
Klazam is town due to DGB trying to egg me on when I was pushing him and not getting support (iso 6) without actually putting backing to the wagon at all. **aside** big point to Sotty-scum in this post where DGB brings up marble talking about tells from sotty that make her scum, and then brushing that off as soon as pressed on the issue by Klazam. Again encouraging Klazam votes over SP (iso 27). So yeah, due to DGB we have Klazam-town.

I disagree; a big reason I think Klazam is scum is that DGB's "I like Fluff's aggressive push on Klazam" came without a Klazam scumread.
Yos said almost exactly the same "I like how you guys are thinking but don't have a scumread on her" thing of his Darlabuddy mid day 1 in Dilemma mafia.
And her 26 said "why not vote SP over Klazam" not the reverse. That statement "you think A & B are both scum so why vote A over B" is also BS.

Llamarble · Post Post #480 (isolation #35) » Tue May 31, 2011 4:26 pm

Sevei wrote:
So basically I see a connection there, but would prefer lynching Marble because a lot of what I see with DGB is based on a perceived connection.

Sevei had DGB scum from early on, but -by association- with me, making it :instadroppable: upon my lynch / NK.
Then DGB got to lynchville so it was basically hammer and attack me D2 or stall moar and hope one of the 2 vote CWs on me / Thor somehow took off.

And now she's (to steal a GreyICE adage) running away from the thread like it's on fire.

Also DGB made a completely forgettable "oh hey an I'll catch up later" FoS on Sevei.

Llamarble · Post Post #521 (isolation #36) » Wed Jun 01, 2011 9:53 am

Man, the company on the seveiwagon is excellent. Even if she's town I think her whole wagon also is.
Going after 3 essentially unlynchable players shows some balls though.
I'm also getting some mild townthoughtprocess vibes from her recent posting.

VOTE: Klazam

As for the fleeing the thread like its on fire thing, I think scum are probably pretty demoralized by the whole D1 scumlynch ->
They're lovers and have a 73% chance of losing if town lynches randomly situation.
I expect demoralized scum post less.

Fluff's recent posting has been Eww.

Llamarble · Post Post #535 (isolation #37) » Thu Jun 02, 2011 5:20 am

Top 5:
Klazam
Sevei
DH
Fluff
Sotty

Llamarble · Post Post #575 (isolation #38) » Thu Jun 02, 2011 1:24 pm

Amrun wrote: The wagon on Sevei is absolute shit.

*cackles*

I've read but don't really have posting time tonight.

Llamarble · Post Post #709 (isolation #39) » Sun Jun 05, 2011 12:38 pm

At first I thought that was a hammer, but it's not so whee catchup time!

Llamarble · Post Post #716 (isolation #40) » Sun Jun 05, 2011 5:37 pm

Ugh 873 competing wagons makes D2 VCs not super awesome.
I'd say the vote 3/4s on each wagon are unlikely buddies with the wagonees though. *updates network*
And I should have looked at this one from D1 before:

TheButtonmen wrote:
D1VC7:

DGB (6): Socio, Thor, IP, Equinox, Sotty, mith
Llamarble (3): LlamaFluff, Sevei, ChrisB
Socio (1): DGB,
Thor (1): Llamarble

Not Voting: DH, Klazam

With 13 alive it's 7 to lynch.
DGB is V/LA from May 19-24.

Yay wagon vs counterwagon!
Sotty & Mith get townpoints for voting DGB over me considering both had me as suspicious and both were in position to give my wagon the chance to beat DGB's.
DGB didn't vote for me here but voted for Thor instead. Ending up in a 1v1 with me is suicide though as my vote would already make 7.
The scum urge to counterwagon says 1 of the 3 on my wagon here is scum.
A bit after this VC Fluff gets off, and he puts his vote onto Sevei while defending DGB loudly.
I don't see a lot of scummotive for that; if he's going to outright defend DGBuddy he may as well do it from the wagon with the best chance of beating hers.
After Fluff is off, there's relatively little chance of a lynch that isn't DGB and Sevei hammers.

I don't like the Mith or Sotty wagons.
I'll be sure to look more deeply at DH tomorrow.

Llamarble · Post Post #773 (isolation #41) » Mon Jun 06, 2011 9:32 pm

Sorry I've been busy recently. But things are more under control now and the scum can die. What was I supposed to answer?
Ah found it. I think you're just wrong that I cleared Mith as group-agreed obvtown. I do think he's town though.

As for complaints about my RVS play, I self voted for the reads. I FoSed people because I found them a bit more likely scum off meta.
Everyone totally ignored my selfvote and then awhile later Sotty was like yo llama is scum for this thing nobody found interesting and then Sevei is like OHMANIAGREEZSHEEPZTIME and now Amrun is like OHMANIAGREEZSEVEIOBVTOWN. Sevei's argument Amrun now claims to have loved so much was half false and half retarded. The false part was that I didn't respond to any of Sevei's arguments in 217 and the retarded part was essentially "Llama is scum for not mentioning Sevei's 'youhaven'ttalkedDGB' influenced him to read DGB at that point." I respond to things without naming who prompted my response often. I DID SO IN THAT SAME POST. HOW DO YOU AGREE WITH SOMETHING THAT MAKES NO SENSE BEFORE IT HAS BEEN WRITTEN? NO. DIE.

And if you had all this stuff in QT yesterday and I was your top scumread then why did Klazam say NOTHING about me and bumble something horriscummy about buzz in his hive telling him to look at DGB? MOAR AMRUN VOTES.

This is giving me :happythoughts: that Amrun is scum with one of the three on my wagon there (especifically Sevei), as she has defended all three of them.
And yeah 'Guarantee scum on my wagon' is cheek but it's beneficial to Seveiscum as an excuse to attack a townie lineup.

Mith wagon & Sevei wagon aren't good; if they're DGBuddies they were highly incentivized to vote me. And both of them were suspicious of me so it's not like they'd have come under attack for wagoning me. Mith even explicitly said he preferred my wagon over DGB's at one point. And Sotty was voting me before she voted DGB.

I am going to read DH now.

Llamarble · Post Post #774 (isolation #42) » Mon Jun 06, 2011 10:48 pm

Dammit it's dawn and my eyes are glazing over. I am looking at DH's ISO and picturing a ship. The captain is calling "repel boarders!"
(I am the boarder and the ISO is resisting me reading it)
There are so many nulltastic semantic explanations...
And a lot of just logic that doesn't have the power of scumhunting conviction.
So many logicpokes.
No wait I am starting to feel the indignance starting around where he votes Chris B.
He cares about this Chris B matter, I think.
Yeah, I like Amrunlynch or Seveilynch WAY better than all other lynches right now.
My brain is boiling from sleepkittens though so I'll read DH properly when I regain structural integrity.
I promised myself not to listen to tired-llama after mafia.exe
My previous post wasn't sleepemu though.

Llamarble · Post Post #781 (isolation #43) » Tue Jun 07, 2011 7:33 am

Amrun wrote:LLamarble, get a hold of yourself. I never said I agreed with all of Sevei's arguments. I said I think Sevei is town. I do not understand this leap of logic.

You specifically said your townread was in large part based on you agreeing with Sevei's post BEFORE she made it:

Amrun wrote:
Sevei wrote:
Sevei 209 wrote:(Marble doesn't talk about [DGB], either--but I bet he will now.)

Sevei

Llamarble 217 wrote:I'll quickread DGB now and then be off for most of the day.

Llamarble 219 wrote:DGB makes a lot of sense to me overall. I like her readslist, her Sociopath case, and her Equinox townread.
Quickread is as town, but I'll deepanalyze later.

Marble, you make no mention of anything I said about you or DGB in 217, yet you feel the need to announce you are now going to look at DGB out of the blue? Why DGB at that point specifically? Because aside from my comments, there doesn't seem to be any reason for you to have done that at that particular point in time.

This post of Sevei gave Sevei MAJOR townpoints for me, since this is something I had noticed and given Llamarble scumpoints for before Sevei actually posted it.

His analysis of the wagon on him today also keeps me at a fairly solid town read on him. The wagon on Sevei is absolute shit.

This means you agreed with some of 'You didn't defend my points from 217' (false) or 'you're scum for reading DGB after I pointed out you hadn't read her enough without specifically mentioning my post' (retarded). Before Sevei's post was made. Buying an insensible argument is meh. Claiming you had the same bizarre illogical thought before she did to assign her townpoints is not something I buy from town.

I also have no control over Klazam. He was kind of flaking, obviously, and selectively posted some things I screamed the loudest about. I guess he didn't agree about my read on you.

If I was your top scumread as your list suggests, I don't see how the only thing Klazam says about me is 'seems meta focused; null.'

@Mith: Reading has been higher priority than working on the network, but I'll be getting back to that before day ends.
I think Amrun is most likely to be scum with one of Sevei, Chris B or Fluff considering those three were the counterwagon on me during the DGB wagon. I would not be stunned by Amrun + DH, or really most pairings containing Amrun other than Amrun + Mith.
If it's DH vs Mith vs Sotty my vote is going to end up on DH, but I don't want it to be that.
I mixed up Sotty's name with Sevei. Woo.

Llamarble · Post Post #783 (isolation #44) » Tue Jun 07, 2011 7:54 am

I don't disagree with "I had same thought as X before X posted it -> townread on X;" This is logic I use all the time.
I am saying given Sevei's argument making no sense, I do not see town coming to the same conclusion before she did.
I have "say I agreed with something my scumbuddy said before they said it and give them a townread" in my scumbagotricks, so I think you did this but failed to evaluate whether it was actually possible for you to have had that thought before Sevei did.

Llamarble · Post Post #826 (isolation #45) » Wed Jun 08, 2011 6:48 pm

I looked more at DH. I do not think his wagon is awesome.
I do like PLAN FLASHWAGON. Fluff isn't scum though.
VOTE: SEVEI

Llamarble · Post Post #828 (isolation #46) » Wed Jun 08, 2011 6:53 pm

Do you mean the Gummy wagon from Hydramafia? Yeah that wasn't so good.
But we missed last time so this time we have to hit scum, yes?

Llamarble · Post Post #862 (isolation #47) » Thu Jun 09, 2011 8:42 am

Blorg, no flashwagon.
I hate wagons where several members have townreads on the wagonee.
Can I get a poll on who would prefer Seveiwagon over DHwagon?

Thor665 wrote:I'd do Sotty, I'd probably do Llamarble over DH, but I'm not as excited as I would be for Sotty.

Hot. Yay beardbuddies.

Llamarble · Post Post #878 (isolation #48) » Thu Jun 09, 2011 6:34 pm

Thor + Ipie + me + Equinox(?) + DH (alternative is self-lynch & he named Sevei as a suspect) + Fluff.
Let's do this.

Llamarble · Post Post #896 (isolation #49) » Fri Jun 10, 2011 4:42 am

:awesome:

As for network:
I'm actually being pretty stringent about what teams I rule out since ruling-out-scumteams can $^%# us if we rule out the actual scumteam.
But flashwagons / wagons that truly threaten to lynch are great for the purpose, and having more than 1 in a day helps a lot.

Llamarble · Post Post #913 (isolation #50) » Sun Jun 12, 2011 6:56 am

We're getting fairly close to deadline.

I'll post actual content tonight.

Llamarble · Post Post #1038 (isolation #51) » Mon Jun 13, 2011 8:05 pm

<3

Singer's contributions:
'my top scumread is the main alternative to my own lynch'
'DH is scum because he doesn't want to die'
(whee using accusations of self preservation to justify her own self preservative vote)
Uses Sevei's "scumread of DH" as part of her case against DH, but there is:

No mention of me even though I was Sevei's top scumread the whole game.

I have a lot of old reads but I'm not going to bother deepreading unless we don't win.

Sotty is town because she got off my wagon D1 to lynch DGB instead when she could easily have justified continuing to attack me based on her previous posting and possibly stopped a DGBlynch.

Also the 'crazy flashwagons' phase is going to do some awesome for sparsing-out the possible pairings network.

P.edit

@Equinox: Amrun and Sevei have been my longshot top scumreads most of day 2. I have gotten townvibes from basically everybody else, so I was not interested in any of those other wagons over Sevei. If I were scum I'd be trying to rule out as many pairings including me as possible anyway.

Llamarble · Tue Jun 14, 2011 11:43 am

... If you were town why didn't you ever mention me?

Llamarble · Post Post #1083 (isolation #53) » Sun Jun 19, 2011 6:44 am

Is where I'm at right now.
I need to do some rereads.

VOTE: Amrun

Llamarble · Post Post #1094 (isolation #54) » Sun Jun 19, 2011 3:08 pm

The ruleouts are based on votes showing intent to lynch.
Hence a lot of possibilities for unwagoned folks.

Did a lot of rereading.
Leaning toward 2 of Amrun + Fluff + DH. Fluff + Amrun especially makes a lot of sense.
I don't really see Mith + Sotty as viable because of the DGBwagon vs my wagon scenario.
Explanations soon.

Llamarble · Post Post #1095 (isolation #55) » Mon Jun 20, 2011 5:57 am

Mreh Fluff is feeling more wrong than scummy to me actually.
DGB's "I like Fluff's aggressive jump on Klazam" is distancing.
When he says DGB was encouraging Klazam votes over SP, that is actually the exact opposite of what she said.
She actually said 'yo llama you're suspicious of both SP and Klazam so why not vote SP and leave Klazam alone!'

DGB with her constant passive attacks on Klazam are not something that really are indicative of scum partners.

I utterly disagree that passive attacks are a sign two people aren't buddies. FoS scumbuddy vote townie.

Llamarble · Post Post #1096 (isolation #56) » Mon Jun 20, 2011 5:58 am

Darn it unintentionally clicked submit in the middle of writing.

Llamarble · Post Post #1102 (isolation #57) » Mon Jun 20, 2011 8:31 pm

I was in the middle of writing down what I thought of Fluff's reasoning for Amrun-town.
In addition to what I had finished so far Fluff mentioned Amrun's setup confusion and defense of him.
Setup confusion is minor bayesian townpoints, but I did not the manner of her Fluffdefense town.
After I misclicked submit I got distracted.
Then Sotty asked what Fluff found Amrun town for right after I was discussing those reasons.

I'm not sure what happened with removing Thor-Fluff.
What my notes say is:
G.remove_edge("Sotty7", "LlamaFluff") #Fluffwagon
G.remove_edge("Thor", "LlamaFluff") #Fluffwagon
G.remove_edge("Equinox", "LlamaFluff") #Fluffwagon
Except Thor wasn't actually on that wagon. I think it may have been this post:

Thor665 wrote:I could be fine with a Fluff lynch if that means we get a Sotty lynch next. Chain the lynches, chain them I say!

I was also looking at Equinox's list of ruled out pairings when I made mine.
Anyway, I don't think Thor-Fluff is the scumteam regardless.
And my vote isn't based on the network I drew.
As scum I'd try hard to ensure my pair missing the list of plausible ones, so I'm using this as a guide for things to look into as opposed to a device worthy of forming a lynchplan based on.

I'll collect my Amrun case together when I'm less tired.

Llamarble · Post Post #1107 (isolation #58) » Tue Jun 21, 2011 7:55 am

Llamarble wrote: I'm using this as a guide for things to look into

As in I am not going to place 100% faith in it since I may have ruled out the actual scumpair at some point.
I'm experimenting with new scumhunting science but puzzling through and figuring out what makes the game make most sense remains my primary weapon.

Llamarble · Post Post #1169 (isolation #59) » Fri Jun 24, 2011 3:02 pm

General nothingness will be rectified this weekend! Hooray!

Llamarble · Post Post #1203 (isolation #60) » Sun Jun 26, 2011 8:37 am

I'm at

L - 1

NOBODY HAMMER.
TONIGHT I WILL CATCH UP.

I'm concerned because as IPie pointed out, Amrun & DH were the two nonvoters at the end of D1, which is yucky.
I'm wrong about something and I'm going to figure out what it is tonight.

@Equinox on Thor:
Participation in the DGB lynch and DGB wagoning him late in the day and his assertive play all bode town.
Looking him over now though, I don't see much puzzle-solving or caring deeply who gets lynched. And he defends Amrun.

Thor665 wrote:Let's do this.

Unvote: Kalzam
Vote: DGB

I usually get slight town tells off of whoever attacks DGB first in a game. Also I'm much more interested in playing the DGB/Socio game than anything else currently.

So maybe he was scum on DGB who voted early for cred expecting it to go away and got stuck there because an unvote would look awful.
But then there's that 'DGB would be more derpy as town and would pick a scum role let's lynch her' post that doesn't feel bussy.
I will look more tonight.

Llamarble · Sun Jun 26, 2011 11:04 pm

Thor is town. There are just too many 'this is a masterpiece if he's scum' posts.
Embarassingly, I have actually been giving this game MORE attention than my others recently.
I am a lot more caught up now than I was.
Amrun is scum.

Llamarble · Post Post #1331 (isolation #62) » Sat Jul 02, 2011 7:55 am

DAMMIT LONGPOSTEATEN on first attempt.
I don't understand the Sottylynch at all.
VOTE: Amrun

D1 DGB 'liked Fluff's aggressive jump on Klazam' while showing minimal interest in a Klazam lynch herself / voting SP.
FoS scumbuddy vote townie is one of the less dodgeable tells.
Then later she posted

DrippingGoofball wrote:
"Sociopath is my first guess for a Klazambuddy for voting him & voting him again while not doing much else, but we'll see how things shake out." Then why not vote Sociopath instead of Klazam? Klazam hangs a bit lower than Sociopath on the fruit tree.

Reason for her to care which of them I lynch is Klazambuddy.

Klazam for his part had DGB as null and was all for the Sociopath counterwagon, then as DGB becomes clearly the lynch he posts the equivalent of "My teammates are telling me I shouldn't be ignoring DGB at this juncture."

Amrun replaced in and did catchuppy stuff and then her posting content tapered off noticeably.
She whiteknighted Seveitown on grounds of agreeing with a post that DIDN'T MAKE SENSE before it was posted.

Amrun wrote:What the fuck? That hammer was awful. I was counting on Llamarble's reaction to Sotty L-1.

Here's to hoping game over.

P-edit: fucking damnit. DH!!!!!!! Why!!!!

Does not townsense with a hammer by somebody you think is town on somebody you think is "9/10 scum."

I'm not sure who her buddy is, but they're playing well.
There are a lot of possibilities that make some sense, but all of them have done things that make me cringe a little.
I'll deepanalyze her buddy possibilities tomorrow. And I'll look into possibilities not including her too in case she is continuing in the tradition of Mute and Bub Bidderskins (town I lynched who megatunneled me) instead of the tradition of Zdenek (scum I lynched who tunneled me).

Continuous on-wagon kills are starting to make me lean towards double-offwagon.
2 of Amrun + DH + Fluff are the pairings that make most sense to me right now.

Llamarble · Post Post #1356 (isolation #63) » Mon Jul 04, 2011 9:52 pm