Team Mafia: White Flag Mafia

[LlamaFluff]

I'm not willing to say 'I absolutely won't vote for someone'. Currently, I have no intentions of voting for either. However, I've been flip turned upside down too many times in this game already.

*sigh*

You KNOW what flip coming im talking about. Mine. Town. No surprise on who flips. Lets say scum no kills. Agree or disagree with not voting them?

I think at this stage in the game, a good scum team is going to be playing bold, and throwing WIFOM in front of WIFOM. It's entirely possible that Llamarble has just played me. One thing going against you being town is that nobody's hammered yet. There's obvious opportunity here. This suggests that either you're scum and someone off the wagon is also scum, or you're town and two scum are already on the wagon.

Lol. You are cute scum.

First, you are ignoring the fact that no one who isnt voting me has actually posted, your arguement falls apart immediately there. Also im not overly confident that both scum are on my wagon, but at least one is (unless its Equniox-marble again). This statement sure makes it sound like you are willing to say you wont lynch DH-marble though, so why wont you commit to it actually?

Again, next post give me good reason as to why DH-marble are scum together or just claim scum. Im not making you remove them from the equation at all actually, im just reducing the pool of mislynches as much as possible by making you not be able to lynch them directly. You think its Equinox-marble? You vote Equinox tomorrow because he works with others. You do NOT. Under ANY circumstance vote marble. Capiche? Prove me wrong or agree, your options are one or the other, not "oh Im not sure".

[Equinox]

I really dont think its mith-Equinox, while it wouldnt be a complete shocker, I dont think thats happening.

I have not laid a finger on mith since the start of the game nor have I presented a case why beyond some minor points or gut. Similarly, mith hasn't leveled any suspicions against me that I can recall, so why does this pair seem unlikely to you?

Equinox: For most of day 2, mith sat around 3 votes. I tried hard to make it higher than that, even trying to trade votes with you, if you'll recall.

With 11 alive, it's 6 to lynch. Three isn't an impressive number. Though if you were pushing this hard, then I guess ruling out Amrun-mith as a pair would be reasonable. I'll run back and check at some point.

Equi, your self-deadline is running down. Can we get a preferred lynch from you?

So it is. I think the deadline is supposed to be today if we take my V/LA into account. Let me get back to you on the second question.

List of needs to agree: Equinox

Okay.

---

I see that LlamaFluff is at L-1. I'll let that sit for a bit while I soak up some wine. Though my thinking right now is that LlamaFluff would only work with DemonHybrid at this point given Llamarble's behavior and how much I've switched back and forth on LlamaFluff.

And if I don't come back tonight, you can stab me with my party hat.

[TheButtonmen]

D4VC4:

LlamaFluff (3): mith, Amrun, ChrisB
Amrun (2): Llamamarble, DH
Chris (1): LlamaFluff

Not Voting (2): Equinox,

With 7 alive it's 4 to lynch.

Deadline is July 20th

[mith]

Equinox: What about Llamarble's behaviour makes him an unlikely Fluff-buddy?

(For that matter, why did you feel the need to argue that you aren't Fluff's scumbuddy? If you're town, you should

know

you're not Fluff's buddy - why would you switching on Fluff affect

your

thinking?)

Here's where I'm at right now: I think it's Fluff-Equinox. Fluff's attitude toward being lynched has been giving me pause, because if it's a bluff it's a pretty damn good one... but if he's scum with Equinox, then the heavy defense of DH and Marble makes sense - if they don't vote for him, he is unlynchable. I can't completely rule out the possibility that he's scum with someone else (DH or Marble) and trying a gambit to look town so Equinox won't vote him, but I think Fluff-Equinox is the most probable pairing by far at this point.

(What I don't understand, regardless of Fluff's alignment, is why he's still voting Chris B. The resignation to being lynched to the point of not switching to the counter-wagon, who he says is in the lynch pool, does not strike me as pro-town... but it doesn't make sense as scum either unless there's some longer-term advantage I'm missing.)

[Equinox]

Equinox: What about Llamarble's behaviour makes him an unlikely Fluff-buddy?

(For that matter, why did you feel the need to argue that you aren't Fluff's scumbuddy? If you're town, you should know you're not Fluff's buddy - why would you switching on Fluff affect your thinking?)

The latter statement isn't the argument I was making. Llamarble stated a willingness to lynch LlamaFluff over Amrun if the Amrun lynch wasn't going to happen. If Llamarble was LlamaFluff's buddy, he'd be more nervous given that I've been somewhat unpredictable towards LlamaFluff, and I'm holding the hammer.

[LlamaFluff]

(What I don't understand, regardless of Fluff's alignment, is why he's still voting Chris B. The resignation to being lynched to the point of not switching to the counter-wagon, who he says is in the lynch pool, does not strike me as pro-town... but it doesn't make sense as scum either unless there's some longer-term advantage I'm missing.)

Because if I dont lynch scum today im going to probably get mislynched for the loss tomorrow. Im nowhere near confident enough in Amrun-scum to lynch her over Chris, so im not going to vote Amrun here, nearly tempted to say even to save myself.

@Chris - You are the only one left to agree, lets go.

[Chris B]

No, sorry. I'm not putting myself in a position where I may end up deciding otherwise. If you end up being town, it doesn't magically make you right.

My case on DH was based on a partnership with Llamarble. Llamarble threw me a curveball when he defended me. If something turns up that convinces me one/both of them is scum, I'm not going to piss around arguing about the fact that I promised not to.

At the moment, I have no intention of voting for either of them. I can't currently see any reason why that would change tomorrow. I'm not going to lie and give you a definite assurance just to make you feel better.

At this point yesterday, I really didn't think I'd end up voting for you. Things can change. Bear in mind how fucking easy it would be for me to say 'alrighty, I definitely won't do this'. They, and mith, are currently my most likely town reads. I have no reason to lynch them as things stand. That's the strongest assurance I can give, because I don't know for definite who's scum and who's not.

[Amrun]

UGH why does Fluff have to be so cavalier about this? My confidence level is dropping.

Equinox, if you were fluff's partner, why would he be MORE nervous? that makes no sense.

[Equinox]

Equinox, if you were fluff's partner, why would he be MORE nervous? that makes no sense.

Was I that incoherent?

No, I'm talking about LlamaFluff-Llamarble to decide whether or not I should lynch LlamaFluff.

[Amrun]

No, I just can't read.

[Equinox]

Amrun, Faraday wants to let you know that your posts sound rather fake and wonders what's up.

[Amrun]

Everyone forgot that my dad had a heart attack and I have to take responsibility for the family business. That's what's up. I posted it in all my games for a reason and right now I'm just riding it out until my games decrease. That is all I can do.

[Equinox]

Everyone forgot that my dad had a heart attack and I have to take responsibility for the family business. That's what's up. I posted it in all my games for a reason and right now I'm just riding it out until my games decrease. That is all I can do.

Fair enough for your Day 4 posting, I suppose, since that would affect your tone. His concern is with your reaction to DemonHybrid's hammering of Sotty7.

---

Presently contemplating LlamaFluff and Amrun chain lynching. Paranoid about the possibility of Chris B-mith being a pair, so I'm going to go investigate that since voting patterns haven't ruled it out.

[Amrun]

Still stuck on that, is he?

It wasn't fake. He'll just say "but I think it was" until the cows come home.

What is the logic behind this proposed chain lynch?

[Equinox]

It wasn't fake. He'll just say "but I think it was" until the cows come home.

Heh.

What is the logic behind this proposed chain lynch?

I'm ruling out DemonHybrid and Llamarble because I will be damned if they're scum. That leaves you, Chris B, LlamaFluff, and mith. Admittedly, I'd be lynching LlamaFluff mostly on the word of my team. While I think LlamaFluff's posturing for people's lynches after his own looks town, I'm a little paranoid that he's doing it because it's gotten success in the past; namely, I've pushed LlamaFluff wagons only to stop them when he drops a post or other that makes me do a double-take. Still, I'd rather take a look at his play myself first before I commit to anything, and I haven't gotten the chance to do that yet.

Say we take LlamaFluff out of the picture. Chris B is probably town, and his day talk slip points in that direction. Can it be faked? Yeah, probably, but I doubt that reaction from him was faked; it looked quite natural when it happened. That pretty much leaves you.

Though, like I said, I'm still paranoid about the possibility of {Chris B, mith} which this chain lynching would completely overlook.

Oh, look, I'm running myself in circles.

[LlamaFluff]

@mod

- Given that this is an open game, can we have the mafia role posted in the OP as well?

Mod edit: Sure

[Llamarble]

The PM itself doesn't mention the whiteflag loverizing mechanic?
Less worried by 'Amrun talked about a player's scumflip implicating another' issue.

[Amrun]

It doesn't leave me; it leaves mith.

Do you see me and ChrisB as a possibility? How much of one?

I need to do some re-reading myself.

[mith]

Equinox: Ah, ok, I understand what you were trying to say now. (Don't really agree, though... not sure what else Marble would be doing other than pushing Amrun + 1423; it's Fluff's own behaviour - the defense of DH/Marble in lieu of voting for Amrun and protecting himself - that has me questioning that pairing more, and leaning toward you being the scumbuddy.)

Fluff: Can you summarize your case on Chris B? I see pairings (and while I follow to the point of most of his pairings not having been ruled out, I don't see why that makes his pairings most likely), and nightkill speculation (which I'm meh about, and which initially you had pointing to me), and a comment about Chris's vote later on... but I'm having a hard time seeing how you went from "Chris is next one out, I dont really think he can be scum without this being a complete crock of bastard modding..." to such confidence in Chris-scum that you are sticking to it by yourself while you sit at L-1.

[LlamaFluff]

@mith - I DONT KNOW. That is my problem with this game right now, usually I can lob up a really easy case on anyone at anytime in the game which is why I have a rediculously high win rate as scum. They are easy to fabricate as scum to me, and they are just as easy to create as town when the game needs to move in a specific direction regardless of my reads on players. Now this may be the first game, ever, where I cant make a case to save my life, litereally. Its always a paranoia of me maybe being wrong on this scum read over the other one, not having no real basis to lynch anyone, which is just causing me to revert more to my defend others playstyle which usually is indicative of me being lost. I havent found my way out though, and am just digging deeping into utter confusion.

I mean... shit.

Chris has the daytalk thing
Equinox has the infodump thing
You have the posts from teammates
DH is town by default here
Marble is basically at the same thing...
Amrun I just am confused on but get the gut town read

I just have NO clue whats going on at this point. I mean, I almost keep looping back to Equniox-Marble but that goes against other reads then I think that mith/amrun are the right lynches although Chris really solves so much. I really dont know. I mean, my choice basically is changing constantly and the only thing I can really say with some form of certainty is that its not a few specific pairing and I wont vote marble/DH (although I still can see Equinox-Marble due to the end of marble/start of sotty transition).

Then again I want to just say "kill Equniox/Amrun" since otherwise the L-2 wagon on IP-town day one was all town.

[Chris B]

In fairness, I've been down for lynching Equinox since day 1.

[Equinox]

Okay. I have

finally

done the reading. At the risk of rehashing everything I have already been spewing in this thread, here's where I stand:

• I read DemonHybrid's posting on Day 2 while he was at L-1 and when he mistakenly thought he'd been hammered, and I agree that there's no way that's coming from scum. If it is, I shall carry him over to the Scummies 2011 Nomination thread myself.
• Chris B's day talk slip in post 462 is at the same level as DemonHybrid's posting stream. I read it over again, and I don't see it as forced; if he's scum, he's a damn good actor.
• Post 219 from Llamarble still gave me the twitches, but then I realized that I need not worry about Llamarble. The only two people who could be partnered with Llamarble, given hard data, are DemonHybrid and LlamaFluff; DemonHybrid is most likely town, and I'm about to lynch LlamaFluff. There's no reason for me to put Llamarble in lynching range.
• The general vibe I got from mith is town, but to be completely honest I have nothing to back that up. I'm borrowing hitogoroshi's read here, as well, and whatever he's said on this front, I've already mentioned it in the thread. I probably should take a closer look at mith's posting, though, so I'll go take care of that from now until morning.

After going through that list, I'm left with {Amrun, LlamaFluff, mith}. I will find scum in here because I am not going to find scum in {Chris B, DemonHybrid} and Llamarble can simply surrender if he's scum.

I can answer this now:

Equi, your self-deadline is running down. Can we get a preferred lynch from you?

In order: LlamaFluff > Amrun > mith >>> everyone else

I'm not going to hammer LlamaFluff just yet because I'd like to get some reading done of mith before I do that; let's see how far I get with mith's iso before I crash and burn for the night. The hammer is going to drop within 24 hours, however. (I'm not pulling a gambit this time.)

[Llamarble]

Fluff is really out of partners aside from DH unless somebody is counting on Equinox being a fickle pickle.
With Amrun not a likely partner for him I'd rather lynch somebody else. Ideally Amrun.

ACTUALLY FLUFF + DH.

[Llamarble]

VOTE: Llamafluff

[Llamarble]

Now comes waiting.

Nope!