Team Mafia: White Flag Mafia

[Llamarble]

Chris B speculation is interesting.
Him being scum would put a scum on the D1 CW on me, which would make life make a lot more sense.
Being wrong about a group townread would also explain the feel of this game, if that makes any sense.
I still think he's an AWESOME actor if he's scum though.

Consider:

However, I'm no longer convinced by IP, and that's one that has me concerned. The fact that Thor brought up the 'conform' rather than 'confirm' thing is some weak sauce. And frankly, I just don't trust Thor, so I'm not going to join in on the IP wagon. I'm still pretty convinced that Equi is scum, but I'm no longer convinced that IP was.

"I don't trust townie X and will not be joining the wagon they're pushing" just feels a bizarre thing for scum who knows the alignment of townie X to come up with.

And then:

I'm posting partially to explain why I'm not hammering you. I haven't had a chance to go through your posts, along with Sociopath's, since his insanity yesterday, as much as I would like. Whichever way your lynch goes, we're likely to get some information. That doesn't mean I 'don't care about the lynch', it means that I'm not convinced enough to put my vote onto you.

If you're town, stop thrashing about wildly, throwing shit in every direction and hoping it'll stick.

Thinking about the information gain from a scumbuddy's lynch is just not normal scum thought process. Scum already have the information, and they certainly don't want to use the information lynch concept to help push through a lynch on a buddy, and even if they did do this they would vote accordingly.

And of course:

Here's a thought, in the meantime, about Demonhybrid, and why I'm leaning towards thinking 'town'. You had that ridiculous, long-running exchange with llama, which was a complete misunderstanding. It was also a very obvious misunderstanding, and I suspect an on-the-ball scum team would have gone 'hey, you realise you look like an idiot there, right?'.

In addition to assuming daytalk, this logic is nuanced and townish.

Rest of his posting feels similarly honest and forthright and like he is thinking.
His town words speak a lot louder to me than his scummy actions.

[Llamarble]

Fluff, why is Amrun-DH impossible?

[Amrun]

Fuck it, llamarble is town.

[Chris B]

At this stage in the game, that's just convinced me as well. I'm honestly astonished.

As a result, that knocks my Llamarble/DH theory, which was my main reason to have issues with DH.

Unvote

Time to have a proper look at Amrun, Fluff and Mith.

[Chris B]

I find this interesting:

TOWN

DrippingGoofball
Equinox >>> first to post, jumps in. Townie all around.
InflatablePie >>> Suggests self-vote in #28??? Defensive. Self-vote? WHY - but early VCA is mega town tell and erases every other concern I may have had.

HYBRIDS

Llamarable >>> I keep mixing him up with the other Llama.
Klazam >>> Buddying to mith in #39, dumb questions in #52
LLamaFluff >>> #22 self-meta why he's town ??? Votes Equitownx? Aggressive jump on Klazam is good, though. I agree with #76

SCUM

Thor 665 >>> #23 self-meta why he's town ??? wants to hammer mith, not vote him.
SocioPath >>> by his own self-admission. Those are never jokes. And then again in #84
Chris B >>> first post #78 is a promise to lurk with IIoA nonsense.
DemonHybrid >>> meek, "I'm not denying that Equinox could be scum" = I no like. Asks loaded questions only.

LURKERZ

Sevei
Sotty7
mith

A trick I've seen, and done, before is to give 'suspicion' of someone, while actually clearing them more. Two negatives and two positives? Doesn't do that for anyone else that isn't town.

[Chris B]

Right, read through DGB's posts on mith and Llamafluff, and Fluff comes out as the leading candidate.

I've also read through Mith's posts, and if he's scum, he's doing a downright incredible job. I've also realised that my distrust of DemonHybrid led to me being more likely to see Fluff as town. My reads have just gone upside down. More reading to do, but that vote on Llamafluff is hovering.

[Chris B]

I'm finding Amrun REALLY difficult to read. Not least because there was no interaction with DGB, and reading along with Klazam is tough. Ugh.

[LlamaFluff]

Fluff, why is Amrun-DH impossible?

DH is turning an Amrun-town read around at the last minute, when most players in the game are already slightly suspicious of her, it really makes no sense for him to do such if they are partners because it could very easily trigger the lynch. Just keeping what he has been saying makes much more sense there if they were scum together.

Chris timing of intention to vote me is enough to make me more happy with my vote, and some of the marble points there fall flat, especially the second because its exactly what competent scum does in that situation if it can help them at all.

Anyways, here is what you do if you lynch me

1) Dont lynch DH or marble tomorrow
2) Dont lynch DH or marble tomorrow
3) Probably dont lynch Equinox tomorrow
4) Pay attention to past NKs
5) Lynch one of mith/amrun/chris
6) Im not sure who that probably should be, but I lean Amrun/Chris at this point actually given that unless its Equinox-mith or Equniox-marble (both unlikely but wouldnt be COMPLETELY shocking) you are looking at a 50-50 win chance.

[Chris B]

Fluff, why is Amrun-DH impossible?

Chris timing of intention to vote me is enough to make me more happy with my vote, and some of the marble points there fall flat, especially the second because its exactly what competent scum does in that situation if it can help them at all.

I only made one point - what was the second point, and what are you talking about?

[LlamaFluff]

I only made one point - what was the second point, and what are you talking about?

Marbles points, not yours.

Who am I scum with?

[mith]

Knew I'd be getting back late tonight, didn't know it'd be

this

late. About to crash, quick follow-up:

Fluff: 1393, Equinox, go.

Amrun: I think I'm missing something here still. Your earlier post implied that you weren't scum because if you were you could blitz DH again if you wanted; but 1399 (the last bit, "plenty of bad ones") doesn't jive with the idea that you could fool him whenever you wanted. (And even if it did... you're basically saying if he thinks you're scum you can't be because you would fool him if you were scum... yeah, don't like that.)

[LlamaFluff]

Also

People who have agreed that voting marble/DH is claiming scum tomorrow after I flip: Amrun
People who still need to agree to it: Everyone else

If I am getting lynched today you are damn sure not allowed to lynch the people that only I am defending. Amrun should know this well from Cold War where I pull a wagon off town, then get killed and they immediately get lynched on the exact same case the next day, only difference is I wasnt there anymore to defend them. I am serious enough about this to policy vote anyone who wont agree today.

[LlamaFluff]

Fluff: 1393, Equinox, go.

DH and marble are town (although if there is a pairing there its marble-Equniox due to when and how Sotty wagon started). You and Equniox only read scum from you to him, while the other way around it feels a little too brash to actually be scum in a white flag game since he keeps inching you towards the leaning scum list in a game that continually turns on a dime. Its mostly that as Equinox reads scum by a bit to me, it is VERY hard to sell him with anyone but Chris here, which detracts from that lynch heavily.

Amrun while I have about the same pairing availability, I see as more likely scum individually. Ehhhh... I just am at a complete damn loss right now for what to do next, and am *this* close from just sheeping DH for the rest of the game with my vote while trying to make sure DH/marble dont get lynched with my action since that looks like its going to be a far better use of my time.

[DemonHybrid]

DH: I'm phone posting from work, so a case will have to wait. It is fairly safe to say that the best case on ChrisB involves his fencesitting on DGB and how he avoided the wagon. My point is that to make a case based on that ignores lots of other factors that point to ChrisB town, such as DGB's last-ditch attempt to wagon him, his new to MS status, and his daytalk slip. It's similar for most people, including you; for example, your Sotty hammer was terribad, but your reaction to your own "hammer" convinced me you are town.

When you get the time, give me some post evidence. And please, take your time.

[TheButtonmen]

D4VC3:

Amrun (2): Llamamarble, DH
LlamaFluff (2): mith, Amrun
Chris (1): LlamaFluff

Not Voting (2): Equinox, ChrisB

With 7 alive it's 4 to lynch.

[DemonHybrid]

V/LA 7/12 - 7/20. I will be posting during those dates; however, they will be on my phone, so there will be less posting. Sorry for the inconvenience.

[Amrun]

Mith: I have a much better record as scum, it is true, as Sotty referenced earlier in game. I have never really had a bad game as scum, even the one I lost (in LyLo). My point in talking about New Designers was that DH has direct experience that I don't drop such obvious scumtells as he was attacking me for (voting on gut, for example). That's not to say I can't be caught as scum, but not for such dumb things. That's self-meta, which some people don't like, but that's what I was trying to say.

[Llamarble]

When is the deadline?

Equi, your self-deadline is running down. Can we get a preferred lynch from you?

[Chris B]

I only made one point - what was the second point, and what are you talking about?

Marbles points, not yours.

Who am I scum with?

I don't know. I honestly can't get a read on Amrun, so she's the leading contender. Equi, I let myself be convinced by everyone else. However, we don't need to get both right now. We just need one. And I think you're floundering and pulling exactly the same shit as DGB did.

If you aren't, you've screwed up your town game enormously. But I don't believe you at this point.

[Chris B]

Vote: Llamafluff

[LlamaFluff]

@Chris - You didnt agree to not lynch DH and marble tomorrow. You still need to do that or provide concrete evidence why they are scum together today. Also you *just* said that the person who is trying to lynch me and I said that I would be perfectly fine lynching is my partner. Try again. If you are town, you are better then this. If you are scum, I expect about this much.

@DH/marble - If you are both alive tomorrow, together vote anyone who votes for one of you, it should win the game.

You lynch pool for tomorrow is mith/chris/amrun, dont lynch equinox unless you are specifically arguing him with marble

[mith]

Fluff: If you're town, I won't be voting for DH or Marble. I don't see any viable partners for either of them outside of you.

Not much else to say tonight. Still happy with my vote.

[LlamaFluff]

Fluff: If you're town, I won't be voting for DH or Marble. I don't see any viable partners for either of them outside of you.

Which is why im done defending myself and instead trying to line up dont lynches for tomorrow since its about all that I can do to make sure town wins the game at this point.

List of has agreed: Amrun, mith
List of wont agree/ignoring: Chris
List of needs to agree: Equinox

Remember, if Amrun or mith vote DH or marble tomorrow, lynch them immediately.

[Llamarble]

EQUI WHERE ARE YOUUUU
I'll reread Fluff, but I'm worried about lack of partners.

[Chris B]

I'm not willing to say 'I absolutely won't vote for someone'. Currently, I have no intentions of voting for either. However, I've been flip turned upside down too many times in this game already.

I think at this stage in the game, a good scum team is going to be playing bold, and throwing WIFOM in front of WIFOM. It's entirely possible that Llamarble has just played me. One thing going against you being town is that nobody's hammered yet. There's obvious opportunity here. This suggests that either you're scum and someone off the wagon is also scum, or you're town and two scum are already on the wagon.

Anyone got any issues with that read of the current wagon?