Team Mafia: White Flag Mafia

[mith]

Amrun: It's the amount of waiting Equinox did. One vote away from losing, I don't see scum calmly pointing out "That's L-1", then sitting around for a few posts/several hours saying nothing against the lynch.

[DemonHybrid]

Well that is the reply that theory is worth, tbqh. I was trying to sell my soul to get mith lynched on day 2

But he wasn't even close, was he?

That's beside the point; did I not clearly say that your buddy, assuming you're scum, doesn't matter?

[Amrun]

I'm not - and in this game, buddies and possible pairings do matter.

[TheButtonmen]

D4VC1:

Amrun (2): Llamamarble, DH
DH (1): ChrisB
LlamaFluff (1): mith

Not Voting (3):Amrun, Equinox, LlamaFluff

With 7 alive it's 4 to lynch.

[Chris B]

Sorry for recent quietness. Busy stuff going on.

I'll look into amrun. I've not been suspicious of her, and it's the point in the game where I need to look more closely. I'm leaving my vote where it is right now though, not least because I'm not joining a wagon with Llamarble and DH on it.

Which is more likely? That both of them are town and amrun is scum, meaning the other scum doesn't want to hammer, or that Llamarble and DH are both scum? After all, if all three were town, scum would have probably finished that wagon by now and won the game.

So, at least one of those three are scum, by my reckoning.

[Chris B]

D'oh. Ignore my maths. That doesn't quite work.

[Llamarble]

Other game ate all my readtime tonight.

[DemonHybrid]

I'm not - and in this game, buddies and possible pairings do matter.

Yeah, with the FLIPPED scum. Not WIFOM-ey future pairings, especially when you only need one more mafioso dead.

[Equinox]

To Faraday: Parama would take it.

Okay. You live. Faraday says Parama would have been instantly lynched had he taken White Flag, but he thinks your hesitation in answering was genuine, so you're off the hook.

I think Fluff is town. If he's scum, he had no reason to try and derail a Sotty lynch in favour of a mith lynch.

Come to think of it, LlamaFluff was willing to lynch Sotty7 at one point during the game and could have easily jumped back to that reasoning. LlamaFluff lives, too.

I don't understand the Sottylynch at all.

Scum on Sotty7 wagon, Y/N?

I was trying to sell my soul to get mith lynched on day 2

Refresh my memory: How close was mith to getting lynched?

[Llamarble]

[quote="Equinox"

I don't understand the Sottylynch at all.

Scum on Sotty7 wagon, Y/N?
[/quote]
Yes. At least one.
I mean even if that wagon had not been bad the only possible pair to make that statement untrue is Fluff + Mith, which seems unlikely.

[Llamarble]

I don't understand the Sottylynch at all.

Scum on Sotty7 wagon, Y/N?

Yes. At least one.
I mean even if that wagon had not been bad the only possible pair to make that statement untrue is Fluff + Mith, which seems unlikely.[/quote]

[Llamarble]

Klazam and Amrun were BOTH stuck on DHtown & Flufftown the entire game.
I really really think it's one of those pairings.
I don't buy DH + Fluff due to Fluff's 'NEVAR LYNCH AMRUN LYNCH DH FIRST' (which also makes me lean toward Amrun + Fluff)
Amrun + DH is possible given DH's relatively safe Amrunvote but seems a lot less likely than Amrun + Fluff.
Non-likelihood of DH + Fluff means we should lynch Amrun over either of them.

Mithscum just has no partner. I can't see him with any of Fluff/Amrun/DH, which contains AT LEAST 1 scum.
And he's town anyway.

If Equi or Chris B is scum they've played AWESOMELY and we're just going to have to get lucky lynching their partner.

[mith]

Is that really what passes for "deepanalyze" these days?

Tell me how Amrun + Fluff makes sense in light of their day 2 play (mostly Amrun's day 2 play). Are you willing to vote Fluff? Why do you think Equinox is town?

How many fingers am I holding up?

Amrun, Equinox, Fluff: Why are you not voting?

[DemonHybrid]

Is there any evidence against an Amrun+Llamarble pairing? I've been looking through and I haven't found anything damning against it.

[Llamarble]

I was in mid-write, but
HAHAHAHAHA
I don't really care what your reasons are so long as you obey me though.

[LlamaFluff]

Amrun, Equinox, Fluff: Why are you not voting?

Beacuse I havent had time to do anything.

I am swamped by the RMP department at work right now since they picked me up to try and make sure everything is tagged out correctly, and when you are dealing with a couple thousand valves and whatnot for the regional wastewater plant, that takes time. Also am doing some more freelance stuff afternoons/nights for the last few days, which im about to leave to pick up a final small shift for. That ends today though so I will have at least part of my evenings back.

Just about all my time recently has gone to modding games though. Expect me to get caught back up here tomorrow or thursday when I have more than five/ten minutes since I really need it as I think on actions DH/marble are town. On NK-WIFOM of last night Equinox is town unless its with Chris. Chris is town for whatever reason, but the remaining mith-amrun pair doesnt work well.

[Equinox]

Amrun, Equinox, Fluff: Why are you not voting?

Given yesterday's disaster of a wagon, I'd rather my vote be on someone I'm sold on being scum. I don't have that yet; in fact, literally everyone is a town read of varying degrees, and that means there's a major screw-up somewhere in the last 55 pages that I am going to find. Give me... 5 days? Start running me up if I stall for longer than that; I've been promising this crap for several days in Day 3.

[Llamarble]

Got distracted. Back now.
When I deepanalyze the reading to writing ratio is pretty slanted toward the reading end unless I'm in flat out I know what's going on campaigning mode.

Equinox is town for a lot of things. Every time I read her she comes up town. I can get specific I guess, but she's not in lynch-range at the moment.

Amrun + Fluff D2 hardcore defended each other on shaky grounds.
Bussing is popular enough that choosing not to bus and using "I'd bus if scum" as wifom is fully viable.

Fluff read several Klazam/DGB posts as unlikely to be buddyposts that gave me the exact OPPOSITE impression, and then gave Amruntown for a setup understanding error, and then for lack of non-DH buddies.

Amrun says fluffscum would have bussed DGB for sure. She says Fluff is town because he would have killed Equinox. She says Fluff is town because Mith is scum attacking him and for agreeing with her.

I think scum have learned to fake "X is town for agreeing with me" in the last couple of months.
Otherwise I'm unimpressed. Like these aren't OBV-HORRIFYING but they're not town.

Fluff was also very adamant that DGB was unquestionably bussed, whereas at this point it seems unlikely she was bussed at all.

I'll vote Fluff if I can't get Amrun lynched but I can get Fluff lynched, if that's what you mean.

All NKs and lynches since DGB have been on-wagon. I am leaning toward both scum being off wagon at this point.
Leaving room for themselves in large groups so they can lynch the other groupmembers seems right.

Also Amrun-Fluff makes the VCs (especially the important one where I am CW to DGB) look pretty and sensemaking.

[LlamaFluff]

You know what, we are doing this anyway.

Vote mith

DH is town, marble is town. Those two are definants.

Chris is next one out, I dont really think he can be scum without this being a complete crock of bastard modding where TBM changed the rules and gave scum QTs though, maybe but not going to vote there. If its Chris, almost for sure its with Equinox or someone Equinox is fairly sure is town.

Leaves Amrun, Equinox, mith, and a problem.

I really dont think its mith-Equinox, while it wouldnt be a complete shocker, I dont think thats happening. mith-Amrun? Again probably no, but this one is far more less out of the question then most people really consider it. I actually went back and checked something, interesting enough mith hasnt voted Amrun, which surprised me. Quite a few times he has posted in sequence something like "ooh that was interesting from Amrun, I need to reread amrun" and then "I dont think she is scum lets vote X instead"

Will get up more later, but at this point my list is looking something like

mith, amrun <gap> Equinox <little gap> chris <big big gap> DH, marble

Again, DH and marble town
If its chris its with mith/amrun/Equinox, with HEAVY prefrence to Equinox and a very low (but existant unlike DH/marble) chance of Amrun.

Also voting mith for gut
Also for what dead players have said. Yes it is important, outside of IP they all wanted him dead. You know the "why thor instead of chris?" question? Three possible answers

1) Chris is scum
2) Thor was more active
3) Thor was more right (note he said mith/marble/amrun as his lynches)

I vote three

I vote mith

I probably wont have time to post again until tomorrow (working outside all day fries you, also working next to a 100 ton liquid chlorine tank tires you due to nerves)

[mith]

...yeah, don't see my vote going anywhere.

The pairing argument is basically "well he

could

be scum with Amrun, even though he's probably not". I have a really hard time believing that Fluff was even a little bit surprised that I haven't voted for Amrun, after we argued about my stance on Amrun yesterday (1146, 1175; after he made the erroneous claim that I "keep suggesting Amrun is scum"). I think I've been clear in my stance on Amrun - she's done some things which I find suspect (the biggest being the reaction to DH's hammer yesterday), yet the entrance into the game shouts "scum with DH, or town", and I haven't seen much reason to doubt that read.

(That said, I'm starting to think Fluff-Amrun is a little less out of the question from Fluff's behaviour. There's a similarity in the Amrun-DH argument from day 2 and the mith-Amrun argument above, basically ruling me out as scum with everyone else... but if he were to apply the same pairing logic here that he were using before, it would seem the logical conclusion would be an Amrun vote, suggesting he may be selectively applying that logic and avoiding the Amrun vote.)

The nightkill argument... not much I can say there other than "WIFOM". Fluff is being a

tad

hyperbolic with the "outside of IP they all wanted him dead" comment (there have only been two kills outside of IP... and of course it ignores that if I were scum the IP kill itself doesn't make much sense).

[Amrun]

Equinox: For most of day 2, mith sat around 3 votes. I tried hard to make it higher than that, even trying to trade votes with you, if you'll recall.

At this point, I feel like I can make town and scum cases for EVERYONE, literally everyone.

So I'm going to go with gut and fuck all the rest.

VOTE: LlamaFluff

[Llamarble]

Well that's just confusing.
Could be a tempbus or a 'you guessed my buddy wrong so I'll rule out the pair you think to get you to leave me alone' I guess but it does not make me happy.

[Llamarble]

Amrun-DH causes that vote and a lot of other stuff to make sense, actually.

[LlamaFluff]

I talked a little to my team.

Chris stole the #3 spot from Equniox.

Biggest paranoia here is that Equinox-Chris makes SO SO SO much sense this game, and they both end up below the top two area.

NK speculation is WIFOM, but there are big things attached

1) SP was pretty adament about mith scum. As much as his playstyle bugs me at times, when he is reading well he is reading well. There are also a few other people that could have got killed instead of him there if he was going to lead town way down wrong path (he seemed to have mith/Amrun).
2) IP a good kill from anyone. Its mafia 101, you do NOT NOT NOT want the unpredictable player who is viewed as town alive. Its a rouge person who people are going to give backing to the reads of. Terrifying player to deal with. I have had a game where I killed Furcolow over a confirmed mason going into lylo because I had no clue where he would go after a mason death.
3) Thor nightkill is huge. It (seriously) makes no sense from me to kill him over chris unless I am scum with chris. Thor had JUST said that he agrees with me on two of my top two reads. I mean, why would anyone if chris is town outside of mith/amrun/marble ever push for him to be killed? Again this *could* point to chris-equinox, because despite thor saying equinox was town, there would be no real kill apart from chris.

So I need to think about this more.

[DemonHybrid]

Equinox: For most of day 2, mith sat around 3 votes. I tried hard to make it higher than that, even trying to trade votes with you, if you'll recall.

At this point, I feel like I can make town and scum cases for EVERYONE, literally everyone.

So I'm going to go with gut and fuck all the rest.

VOTE: LlamaFluff

Gut? At this point in the game?

You are the most interesting scum in the world.

You don't always mislynch townies.

But when you do...

...you call it gut.

Llama is town and this wagon is awful.