Of Gods And Men (GAME OVER!)

Iecerint · Thu Jul 01, 2010 3:52 pm

On that first note --

How many N1 Norse votes are unaccounted for?

Iecerint · Thu Jul 01, 2010 4:57 pm

Why do you have Faraday and DTM with 2 votes?

Iecerint · Thu Jul 01, 2010 6:12 pm

Really, Faraday rubs me more the wrong way, but he's apparently confirmed to have redirected Snowie to kill the GF, regardless of whether she always intended to do so.

I'm pretty sure Kinetic hews to the PROVABLE /=/ TOWN ideology, so, especially in cases where you can't really prove that your action was used in a pro-town fashion (ala what apparently happened with Faraday), the rhetoric doesn't do much for me.

Several other players have played the sheep card over the past 10 pages or so. Why aren't they on your scumlist?

Iecerint · Thu Jul 01, 2010 6:47 pm

^ If I'm not mistaken, you're missing that Faraday claimed to have gotten an item from Alba (D2, I think) that accounted for the redirect on SB. MO confirmed the redirect.

Iecerint · Thu Jul 01, 2010 6:54 pm

I know; it's heartbreaking. I wanted to kill him, too.

Iecerint · Thu Jul 01, 2010 7:16 pm

I assume you mean on ABR's census? Good point.

Unvote

.

Iecerint · Thu Jul 01, 2010 7:20 pm

(If he ever manages to produce it again, but ye know.)

Iecerint · Thu Jul 01, 2010 7:59 pm

One problem with it is that some player is invariably going to fail to get his worship in on time, either as an excuse for giving whomever else worship or just because of human failure. It would be simpler to minimize Egyptian and Norse worshipping to keep GOO above the 20% and Angels in the majority. The benefits of seeing whether scum would manipulate a marginal situation like that are negligible IMO, so....

But correct me if I'm wrong.

I think DS's cuckoo ability doesn't require GOO worship (?) ...

Also EBWOP @ ooba -- I forgot that mortals are the ones who get 2 votes, since I'm also a player who gets 2 votes; my silly mistake.

Edit: ABR won't be able to use his census ability tonight even if he's protected, if that's what you're thinking. And you've corrected my concern above, so.

Iecerint · Thu Jul 01, 2010 8:01 pm

(EBWOP: I originally had "marginal" where "negligible" is now and forgot about it, so that's why that sentence makes no sense.)

Iecerint · Fri Jul 02, 2010 9:47 am

I like MO's scumlist a lot.

I don't like VV's perception that Tar's analysis was good. I do think that Tar is likely town, but a few of the points -- namely the bit about more voting power for a faction indicates more scum there, which doesn't make sense both because scum ALREADY have an edge on directing worship due to knowing one another and because balance for ABR being set against us is a parsimonious explanation (granted that I only picked up on this because I'm Norse) -- were sort of not good IMO. I think Niki also pointed out that a Neighborizer already flipped scum (granted, again, that he probably only noticed it because he himself is a Neighborizer, etc).

So, given as much, it's sort of reasonable that a player not in either of those circumstances (e.g. VV) would miss them in a complex game, but using it as a building block of an argument when it appears incompletely evaluated makes me shake some.

I am biased to an extent by my difficulty interpreting Faraday as town (though he clearly appears to be so) and his link with him, though, so ye know.

@ MO, it looks like you're leaning ABR as CL rather than scum, right? Because it would be a kind of odd set-up if Loki and Odin are scum together who both "want" their faction's worship to swing opposite ways. And I doubt his claim is total BS unless Plum is scum, too, so....

Iecerint · Sat Jul 03, 2010 1:30 am

@ MO, it could be, for example, that he deliberately understated their danger by claiming no N1 recruit. This prevents him from being an autolynch when a cult flips (because he DID reveal a cult) while maximizing his apparent "usefulness" (because he claimed his ability) and driving things toward mafia-hunting per se (because the cult "didn't" recruit).

The cult and ABR's ability being totally imaginary is also a possibility, though I think Tar/DTM confirmed that ABR got the wording right with their being "modified" lynchers. If that's standard Kinetic vocabulary, it's a weaker point, but.

Iecerint · Sun Jul 04, 2010 11:51 am

@ ABR, why do you say that MO in particular should know you're town? Like, is it because he can see into your heart, or another reason?

Upon ooba's request,

Vote: raj

again.

Iecerint · Mon Jul 05, 2010 1:24 am

He wasn't Too Human?

It looks like Collateral Damage may have only applied while Blaze himself was holding the hammer.

Iecerint · Mon Jul 05, 2010 6:25 pm

@ Ooba -- raj's summary of Blaze's abilities left out the passive "Too Human" voting ability that all known Norse gods appear to share. Or, it's a Passive ability, if that's what you mean.

What ABR says makes sense, assuming his census works the way he thinks it does. The only way it could be wrong is if Plum/Pom is actually scum, and the real Survivor can't counterclaim her for some reason, and that's REALLY remote, and it probably implies we'd want to kill raj either way.

Iecerint · Mon Jul 05, 2010 7:05 pm

@ Niki -- Probably, but the lampshading is probably not necessary.

@ raj -- If you are faking it, you did it because you messed up a bit. If you are not, Blaze is randomly the only Norse god who is not Too Human. Also, the Worship tends to imply that he WAS Too Human if I'm not mistaken (ooba can correct me), so....

@ all -- It does appear that raj used SOME KIND of ability on Blaze, though -- that, or raj is scum AND scum can post their role PMs in their QT, and he's used that to derive stereotypical bits.

Iecerint · Tue Jul 06, 2010 11:08 am

@ Ooba, I don't get where you think I'm being defensive. Show?

@ MO, it's a Passive ability. There is no indication either in my role PM or in the Norse QT proper that the Norse Gods are based on the Too Human universe (though the pattern of other players' abilities and Percy's flip do imply that that was the case). When I saw my "Too Human" ability, I thought it was an allusion to the fact that Baldur eventually dies in Norse mythology and everyone was sad (e.g. he dies like a mortal, so he's Too Human).

I think I may have even mistyped the ability as "Too Mortal" at some point in the game, since that kind of ability name jives more with my interpretation, but I may have corrected it before posting it due to looking at my role PM.

Iecerint · Tue Jul 06, 2010 11:12 am

@ raj, I've indicated how it could be possible for you to have made that up -- scum with Percy, scum may post role PMs, use Percy's PM as a model, screw up the Too Human bit. It's a bit of a longshot, not unlike the possibility that Blaze simply wasn't Too Human (especially given that he flipped as such, which I'd missed).

MO's recent explanation that Blaze was not a double voter while still being from the Too Human universe would make everything jive nicely, though.

Iecerint · Wed Jul 07, 2010 6:44 pm

V/LA until Monday

. I may be able to get on once per day or so in the meantime.

I don't think anything has happened to affect my view that raj is a good lynch.

Iecerint · Sat Jul 10, 2010 4:56 pm

Hooray! Lots of scum flipped while I was away!

Now I will read the thread and make little notes for you even though I am sleepy and driving home tomorrow and would rather sleep.

Iecerint · Sat Jul 10, 2010 6:35 pm

Notes are chronological from my post. I'd already seen that manho and raj flipped scum, though.

1. This is just from memory -- the bit where Niki wanted to use ABR to confirm raj stands out.

2. VV tries to divert MO away from raj and to SB.

3. Parama full-speed destroys raj.

4. Don't know why Fate wants to lync Xite given rajscum, especially given 1 and 2 above.

5. And then he pulls his 2SCUM4SCUM garbage a moment later.

6. He's super-cute in 2430 where he lampshades it, though.

7. SB's 2435 reminds me that ABR championed Rajscum on the basis that Rajtown didn't jive with his ability. I noticed this cuz I think someone toward the end pushes for an ABR lynch D4. I suppose I'll find out why as I read ahead but I mean.

8. Just realized -- I didn't send in Worship before I left. So yeah. Hopefully the world didn't end.

9. MO's 2442 @ raj's inconsistent scumlists makes me giggle with glee.

10. Katy pulls WIFOM in 2443 in the same way (I think) she did about Raj earlier in D3. Before, it was "would Percy attack a scumfriend, or not?" Now it's "would raj set-up this bizarre business with CMAR, or not?" I notice it because I totally don't remember whatever it is she's talking about, which means she is either a better reader than me, she takes notes, or she has a connection to one or more to those players.

11. Ooba scumhunting against Tar and DTM doesn't make sense to me. I really doubt they're scum, especially given manho's flip (e.g. they might approach the game differently if they would inherit Percy's scumgroup).

12. Mina's suggestion to restart the game doesn't make sense to me. If she has little time, she shouldn't spend it asking to restart the game. But I don't think she's scum so.

12. At D4 start. I guess we skipped N3 altogether given the mafia flip results.

13. Looks like worship ended the world, but it wasn't my fault.

14. I hadn't even noticed that ODIN failed to flip Godfather until Tar pointed out/lampshaded it. The analysis part of his post is probably fine; the point about protective roles is decent, especially given that there are also a gillion deathproof people.

15. MO's plan for dram is a good one.

16. Why does manhoscum make Nikitown? Can't remember. That may cancel out the Niki-raj thing a bit.

17. I think Fate is confusing Mina with Katy just after that? I don't remember Mina making connections to rajscum.

18. MO remains my boyfriend at the bottom of page 99.

19. PZ made me giggle with glee in 2477.

20. Mina is my girlfriend in 2488 with the plan for dram and ABR. She's trying to use claimed abilities in unconventional ways for maximal win, etc.

@ Mina, it looks like GF wasn't alignment-proof in spite of being the Godfather. This actually makes total sense, because Tar had an ability to find him IIRC.

(This is where I lampshade that most of this list is cheerleading. What can you do.)

21. Ooba posts about DS being cult look sound. If not DS, it's probably Fate given the same heuristics.

Killing cult earlier rather than later is wise if we are adequately certain of it.

22. @ Tar, could you describe the alternacults you've alluded to in 2491? You're implying that they're no big deal or something, but I'd like more information about why you think that.

23. Why is everyone suddenly obsessed with vote-testing?

24. Given that he's not just lying, ABR probably claimed 1-shot on HTS at the proper time, since Mina and others had been strategizing with it. It's also the best time as scum, though, since it keeps him from being caught unable to use it.

This reminds me to see if he has sent me any love letters. Doubt it but. I will look.

25. Alba's raj post find about ADB is a good one. But, do we know that ABR recruited Xite? I don't understand his point about "recruiting people" otherwise.

I also don't get why he thinks dram is the cult recruiter. I guess Mina and Plum will be the other Cult in such a universe?

(He's played with me? And I was scum? I can't figure out who....)

What on earth made you think that Xite's SLOT was town?

By failure to use protective roles well, I guess you mean TNM's claimed target and VV's targetfail?

26. Okay, well, the formatting fail lampshade might explain part of my confusion.

27. I don't think ABR is scum. ABR could be CL, but it's unlikely since DS, namely, is more likely. So the ABR wagoners (I'm looking at Xite, who has an innocent from Katy, but I mean like in general) are questionable.

28. I read DS's posts. Mostly because we talked D1 IIRC.

29. I don't understand DS's page 102 point where he argues that he can prove he is Dream because he flavor-dropped it. It was probably a mod-given fakeclaim if he was scum (or maybe Dream could be Cult Leader; I dunno the Sandman comics), so the flavor crumbing is irrelevant.

If you're implying that the Mod confirms your flavor or whatever, I doubt it, because my QTs with ooba and Niki didn't have that characteristic.

30. @ MO, ABR probably decided not to let the cat out of the bag as far as his ability D3 because he could already catch raj on having a different win condition. If he could get raj lynched, there was no need to come out with the facts regarding Hack the System.

Also, raj is unlikely to have missed his own scumfriend's fakeclaim as such. ABR may be cult, but is unlikely to be scum.

31. OK, I'm lost on this Items business as of ooba's 2530. Are everyone else's abilities based on Item Usage? Because my abilities aren't based on items at all. I thought it might be just Mortals or just a handful of abilities, but if JCA have items....

Also, is it EACH ITEM can be passed once per cycle, or AN ITEM can be passed once per cycle? I sense some inconsistency.

32. So, to clarify what som

33. The Mod confirmed ability resolution for VV? Really? He wouldn't even tell me whether I'd be told if I used my one-shot conditional deathproof. <_<

Vote: Darkstalker

BUT. SOMETHING I JUST THOUGHT OF RE: ABR.

ABR claimed that his abilities don't work if Norse gets Worship twice in a row. But his ability only works once! So it seems like a REALLY wasted mechanic, innit? I guess the functional doublevote gets important at endgame for town, but I mean.

Iecerint · Sat Jul 10, 2010 6:39 pm

Also, I'm still V/LA til Monday. I just managed to grab a computer tonight. Just sayin.

Iecerint · Sun Jul 11, 2010 1:16 pm

@ ABD, the player who Neighborizes that way has confirmed the targets, I think.

Iecerint · Sun Jul 11, 2010 3:03 pm

Cthulhu is the most famous of the Lovecraftian Great Old Ones. That's why everyone thought that GOO was a priori scummy before SX came out as Endless.

Iecerint · Sun Jul 11, 2010 5:21 pm

I think the "prove not Cthulhu" bit, so far as he stated, was just like "I crumbed a different role in QT and someone non-scum (Plum) guessed my role." This is an awful argument that he's "not Cthulhu," (let alone "actually Dream," or whoever it was) because scum probably have fakeclaims.

If something is totally over my head here, please teach me.

Iecerint · Mon Jul 12, 2010 6:23 am

From Paul Atreides, too. And Set.

Iecerint · Mon Jul 12, 2010 7:29 am

So, did TNM start with his Dr. Item, or did he get it from someone?

Iecerint · Mon Jul 12, 2010 7:42 am

Then ye innit AFAIK @ 2566.

Iecerint · Tue Jul 13, 2010 6:09 am

V/LA until Friday

. Summer retreat with an academic group.

I'll be well-behaved after this one.

Iecerint · Thu Jul 15, 2010 1:36 pm

I'm back a little early.

Have caught up. No new comments. I'm pretty much gonna keep aping MO, since it's felt good so far.

Iecerint · Fri Jul 16, 2010 6:11 am

Are we sending in our worship votes now, then? I've yet to make mine official, but I'm fine with giving GOO the tier for Niki and giving JCA worship.

Iecerint · Fri Jul 16, 2010 8:33 am

Vote: DS

That's L-1.

Iecerint · Wed Jul 21, 2010 9:56 am

I worshipped JCA.

Iecerint · Wed Jul 21, 2010 10:12 am

Nope.

My only other "night action" was some exchanges in Niki's Niki/Iec QT. I'm assuming that doesn't involve formal targeting.

Niki, why did you specify to ooba that you could read his QT with me?

Iecerint · Wed Jul 21, 2010 2:34 pm

It is somewhat odd to me that LMPtown would think that Katy was scum. I'd like for him to elaborate about that.

Who did VV used to be in the 1/1 with? I forgot. MO will know.

Iecerint · Wed Jul 21, 2010 4:17 pm

Do we know that LMP (who is apparently a zombie? wat?) is mafiascum rather than nontown scum? Cuz a zombie cult fits flavor.

If LMP is confirmed non-town, he probably called himself a "benevolent spirit" because that's what Katy called him. This implies a connection to Katy, since the probability that he'd pick up on that otherwise is low.

Iecerint · Wed Jul 21, 2010 5:55 pm

1. Everyone called Orto scummy D1.
2. You could just as easily have pushed for his lynch knowing his lynch wouldn't go.

Iecerint · Wed Jul 21, 2010 6:07 pm

Hey, MO, remind me what that 1-1 was with VV, who the other half of it was, and why it no longer applies?

Iecerint · Wed Jul 21, 2010 6:56 pm

Nope, that sounds pretty familiar. I guess someone overstated the degree to which it was a 1/1 in the past few days.

Iecerint · Thu Jul 22, 2010 1:58 am

1/1 means that exactly one player out of two is scum. It occurs when two players make claims that only make sense when exactly one of them is lying.

Iecerint · Thu Jul 22, 2010 5:48 am

I can think of one excellent explanation for uncommon brilliance with regard to such matters.

Iecerint · Thu Jul 22, 2010 6:53 am

@ ooba, any perceived shift in my attitude is probably due to my having recognized the fact that the amount of effort I put into this game is inversely proportional to how much I win at it.

Also I am rotating in a new lab now so I sleep differently.

I dunno.

Iecerint · Fri Jul 23, 2010 7:41 am

It would appear that it would have to be that Mina and Albatross are lying (3 missing requires 1 and 2, so Mina is the only 2, and I'm just choosing Alba over Parama based on my heart).

That, or voting manipulation abilities on scum.

Edit: I don't understand why ooba thinks he was worship-roleblocked.

Iecerint · Fri Jul 23, 2010 7:42 am

INB4 IEC IS ALSO A 2 GOSH HE IS TRYING TO BE SNEAKY BUT I CAUGHT HIM, etc.

Iecerint · Fri Jul 23, 2010 9:25 am

@ ooba.

Wat. 14 were supposed to vote. 11 voted. 3 fewer is what let this be a GOO day rather than a JCA day. I have no idea what you're talking about. Also, you need at least one odd-numbered voter/(vote manip) to make up a 3 unit difference.

If you were worship-blocked, we'd be at (n-4) rather than (n-3).

It seems like everyone else knows what ooba's talking about, though, so please teach me.

Iecerint · Fri Jul 23, 2010 9:32 am

OH NEVERMIND SIGN FAIL.

OK well I still don't quite get why he thinks it's all about him but I see my error.

Iecerint · Fri Jul 23, 2010 9:33 am

Wait no. I take that back. I am not erroring.

I AM GOING CRAZY.

Iecerint · Fri Jul 23, 2010 10:31 am

Oh, I see. I was focused on Total/Actual and ignored the Unclaimed.

Iecerint · Fri Jul 23, 2010 7:14 pm

I actually claimed deathproof in some situations. My deathproof conditions would have been in play any of the previous nights, though, for what it's worth.

Also, I haven't been told that I was targeted yet. Kinetic was vague when I asked whether I'd be told, though. (I asked because Tar was apparently told, etc.)

Iecerint · Fri Jul 23, 2010 8:09 pm

Maybe recruited cult members lose their abilities and become zombies?

There are enough other inconsistencies in LMP's claim (Wayward/Benevolent, etc) that this is hard to judge, though (i.e. it doesn't explain everything).

Iecerint · Fri Jul 23, 2010 9:21 pm

ooba wrote:If SB flips town, you can be sure Mina is your scum. SB flipping cult means more thinking

Why would SB being cult vs. town affect whether a given player is scum?

Iecerint · Fri Jul 23, 2010 9:51 pm

@ ooba -- I understand your argument that SB being town (i.e. being non-mafia) makes Mina more likely mafia. I don't understand how SB flipping cult would affect that, though, since cult is not different from town from a mafia-information perspective.

MO saw that he *targeted* SB, innit? And she claimed she targeted Percy, anyway. But she'll flip soon, so.

@ MO -- How on earth do we have a hypothesis that only 1 member of the mafia can kill? O.o

Iecerint · Fri Jul 23, 2010 10:03 pm

Hmm. I thought you were arguing that a cult flip would affect who was *mafia*. I guess you were a little vague. It's certainly true that cult flips affect who is cult.

Iecerint · Sat Jul 24, 2010 6:07 am

If cult can be identified by abilities or rolename, your daybreak ability is desperately needed at this point.

Iecerint · Mon Jul 26, 2010 2:29 am

I'll contribute to the lynch when we decide it's time to lynch.

Iecerint · Mon Jul 26, 2010 2:29 am

People probably think you are cult because you have one of the more odd action claims IIRC.

Iecerint · Mon Jul 26, 2010 4:39 am

There's no reason it necessarily has anything to do with Tar.

Edit: I think people have commented on both angles, dram. (And lurker hunting has basically been the name of the game as far as lynches go so.)

Iecerint · Mon Jul 26, 2010 4:43 am

Yeah, but. Basically people have been shooting scum while we lynch lurkers to semi-paradoxically positive effect.

Not that this implies that it is the best way to do things but.

Iecerint · Tue Jul 27, 2010 6:20 am

I got into IE modding a month or so ago. Should I stop for Starcraft y/n/m?

The ending cutscene makes me want to say "No," but.

Iecerint · Tue Jul 27, 2010 12:37 pm

Speaking of that -- who are we worshipping tonight? Hell, which deities are even still alive? I'm the only Norse, someone said Katy was the only Egyptian, Niki is the only (?) GOO, Parama and TNM are JCA...

We have nighttalk so it isn't a huge deal but.

Iecerint · Wed Jul 28, 2010 6:27 am

Uh. I don't think there's any information out there on what kind of cult this is.

Iecerint · Wed Jul 28, 2010 8:04 am

Niki heard that someone lost their abilities and speculated that that player might be (recruited) cult. I dunno where this mentor/mentee idea is coming from, though, unless it was one of the possibilities Tar listed a few days ago.

Iecerint · Wed Jul 28, 2010 10:32 am

Oh. I missed that part of Niki's post, probably because I wasn't sure what "Mentor-type" meant at the time.

Iecerint · Wed Jul 28, 2010 4:54 pm

INB4 INB4 the same logic would fit for ooba, innit?

Something spooky -- if Tar's worship didn't work, that means someone covered for him, right (since we hit 13 even without him)? Or else ABR could've done it.

Iecerint · Fri Jul 30, 2010 6:27 am

Ooba, my D1 behavior is pretty normative for my D1 behavior in large games. Refer to Stars Aligned 2, where I was nearly lynched D1 of it, for a comparison. That's the only large game Katy has played with me, so that's probably where her D1 vibes were coming from. (I already told you as much in our short-lived QT earlier.) Trying to compare my game here to your only other experience with me (a mini where I was a totally imbalanced PR AND a mason) is not valid.

While I can't deny that lots of people have kinda flip-flopped about me a lot over the past several days (my own interpretation is that players want to lynch me, it doesn't take, and they give up), at least some aspects of your evidence are impossible (unless I'm am absurdly OP cult leader but). For example, I'd have to have recruited Katy D1 and then ABR very early D2 (which would in turn make your Albarecruit D2 interpretation no good). Otherwise, ABR would have lied about the cult in a way that wouldn't make sense for non-cult (i.e. he would've framed them as an opponent of relatively low importance as mafia, which would make no sense). And Fate's whined about me today.

I agree that Tar's silence is odd; my best guess is that some kind of investigation may've taken place amongst the cabal people or whatever.

Edit: Yeah, it's totally accurate that I'm kinda lurk-y today. The game's so complex that anything I can contribute is either outdated or wrong based on old information. It's very demoralizing. I also feel like I don't have much gravitas based on said outdated/half-baked information and my lack of integration into the major communication networks that I assume are driving a lot of this information everyone seems to keep track of so well.

Iecerint · Fri Jul 30, 2010 12:00 pm

1. Yeah, I did forget. It still holds that that explains Katy's D1 read on me, though. My LoL game was more dissimilar to this than my SA2 game, too, IMO.
2a. That is highly speculative.
2b. You're positing that ABR's census ability was there for a reason other than to track the cult?
3. Yeah, well, I personally can't accurately claim to read Fate, so I can't say much about that. Also, I'd never recruit him this game for precisely that reason, even though we did play a fun game together a bit ago (all while this game was still going on). [/WIFOM or /self-meta or something]

Iecerint · Fri Jul 30, 2010 2:10 pm

Vote: dramonic[/red]

On top of the role set-up spec and lurky behavior, this is probably one of the only times dram can be killed (because his Limbo'd target was already killed).

Iecerint · Fri Jul 30, 2010 2:35 pm

Vote: dramonic

Iecerint · Fri Jul 30, 2010 2:44 pm

I'm not totally crazy about it either tbh. Teach me why I should vote VV again?

Iecerint · Fri Jul 30, 2010 7:31 pm

It's better to kill CL in an ideal world, but I don't really know who it is, or how to determine who it is. The best way to make a determination will probably be to wait for the inevitable cult flips (LMP's an obvious one) and extrapolate backward to disproportionate flip-flops on specific players. Until then, it's just wild mass guessing.

We have lots of mafia flips, though, so that's a different ballgame.

I yet to see you lay out the mathematical rationale for cult losing worship votes. NEAT POINT, though --> if ooba is correct, cult recruits may be among the players who claimed early game that their worship didn't count. I can't recall who it was offhand, except that I think Xite/LMP claimed that D2, maybe.[/b]

I am not scum of any sort.

Iecerint · Sat Jul 31, 2010 6:21 am

@ VV -- relying only on ooba's culttalking count, I didn't talk about it much D1, and I talked about it a lot (in terms of number of posts) after it became a subject D2. Ooba's claim was that the scummy pattern would be people whose cultposting did not increase after it became the topic of investigation (which led to mafia-not-cult DS).

Iecerint · Sat Jul 31, 2010 7:13 am

That's actually a very good point.

What's her claimed role again? I know she's a White Council person, is all.

Iecerint · Sat Jul 31, 2010 7:14 am

Oh, right. She's one of the rolecops. Who has she successfully rolecop'd?

Iecerint · Sat Jul 31, 2010 7:16 am

I see that she was "redirected" such that there was no effect N1 (huh?), limbo'd N2, blocked N3, what about N4, then? Do we know?

Iecerint · Sat Jul 31, 2010 7:16 am

N4 = LMP = Zombie = presumed cult => Mina is probably not CL.

Too bad. It looked nice.

Iecerint · Sat Jul 31, 2010 7:18 am

Is there any chance that the Zombification was linked to raj's role in some way? I mean. He was Dr. Frankenstein. Maybe the "Modified Cult" was part of his mafia ability (explains why there's only 1 Zombie as of D2)?

This is kind of out of the box but.

Iecerint · Sat Jul 31, 2010 7:19 am

I mean, or the Zombies and the Modified Cult could be unrelated, with the Zombie bit attached to Dr. F.

Yes, the monster isn't a zombie at all, but it's still undead flavor.

Iecerint · Sat Jul 31, 2010 1:26 pm

Oh. Hmm. I don't know anything about Stargate, except for that it exists.

LMP/O/Xite may just as well have been recruited sometime after the initial summoning.

Iecerint · Sat Jul 31, 2010 2:55 pm

Are you positing that, or do you know that?

Because if the Zombie change wasn't from the cult (and town won't own up to zombie-ing him), then it's associated with the mafia. It's unlikely that some town player is secretly making zombies to advance a pro-town agenda.

Iecerint · Sat Jul 31, 2010 6:56 pm

1. When did Fate claim dayvig? Has he claimed he shot LMP?
2. Was that the first time dram claimed vanilla? If not, did he claim his abilities were *lost* last time, or did he only claim being vanilla?
3. Dram having been made vanilla is not provable. He could just refrain from putting people into Limbo. I agree that he's not CL, though, because then Mina would be cult, and Mina got LMP killed, and I think LMP was recruited cult.
4. If the cult is a cult that can only have at most 2 members (CL and mentee), the cult is probably Katy-LMP. In such an event, LMP's role wouldn't have ever changed from Benevolent Spirit to Zombie, so Katy would've been lying.

Iecerint · Sat Jul 31, 2010 6:57 pm

Note, however, that such a cult being the cult in this game leaves us with mysteries of why the hell people's abilities are going away. LMP+Tar is already more than one recruit.

Iecerint · Sat Jul 31, 2010 8:13 pm

Do we know that Pom's death had anything to do with Limbo?

At any rate, if her death was indeed attached to Limbo, that would make it more likely, not less, that your abilities are intact, since twice as many kill targets would have resulted in her death.

Iecerint · Sat Jul 31, 2010 9:05 pm

@ dram -- Actually, I totally forgot that you claimed you'd lose your abilities after your limbo'd party was killed. So nevermind that.

@ ooba -- I said (not hinted) you hadn't shown the mathematical reasoning (not that it didn't exist).

Now that I see them spelled out that way -- you may be right about some or even most of those points, but I know I'm not CL, so I'm going to approach them with a little skepticism.

Iecerint · Sat Jul 31, 2010 9:26 pm

No, I don't really understand the claimed night actions. I feel like everyone's in a network of daytalk and nighttalk, which I don't have anymore because all the Norse people are dead. It's part of why I was contributing less today. I picked it up a little in the past day or so because ooba suspects me, and the case is as compelling a case as can be imagined in a circumstance where no cult have flipped whatsoever, so I figure the responsible thing to do is to try to be helpful. It's hard to defend myself against what amounts to other players' behavior changing, though; as I think I stated earlier, I think what actually happened is that whenever players have said they want to lynch me, MO has said he has a town read/weak town read on me, and they sort of let it go.

Dunno what slip you think you see there. I forgot that dram lost his ability when his limbo'd person was killed, which totally threw my logic off (because it was based on a faulty premise).

I make detailed cases on people when I'm scum. Like, something similar to that SSSB/FF link I thought I saw in Linked Chaos mafia (where I was town, for any 3rd parties reading this), but as scum. You can read the end of Fables to get an idea or what I'm talking about, or the end of Lay of Leithian, to get examples of that behavior. I also did it in Disgaea 1. [/self-meta]

Iecerint · Sun Aug 01, 2010 9:22 am

Hey ooba, d'ya ever say whether you knew why Niki's Iec-ooba QT-giving didn't work?

Iecerint · Mon Aug 02, 2010 12:55 am

I remembered you telling me that; I didn't remember ooba saying it.

Iecerint · Mon Aug 02, 2010 4:16 am

I wish dram would play the game a little. I'm allowed to say at this point that he did this same kind of lurker thing as VT in UK's Insane Asylum 2 game.

So...if that's the basis of the suspicion, it's probably no good.

Since his claimed ability loss checks out with his past claim, that isn't sketchy, either. Also, if we're right about it being a hypnotist mafia (I don't really know why it'd be the case apart from outguessing but) it seems like there's no point in lynching recruited players, since they'd still be town-aligned, so this wouldn't be a sketchy thing, either way.

Parama, I think we wanted to get SB's flip before lynching VV (or something)? But please teach me why it's the way to go before that happens.

@ ooba/Fate -- What do you make of DTM's claim that dram can't be mafia due to balance issues?

Iecerint · Mon Aug 02, 2010 4:33 am

DTM is probably recruitedCult if anything, seeing as he lost his PR. If you buy the hypnotist cult business, he's probably not a good lynch. Same with Tar, same with whoever else ooba says the math says is worship-less.

If DTM confirmed that he totally made up the PR somewhere, please correct me. This is another instance of you guys all taking something for granted that I totally do not understand. Also, if someone were to make up a PR, you'd think you'd make up one that was less lame. His didn't serve as an excuse for low output or anything. If anything, it made people more suspicious of him early on because of the tone of his early posts.

@ MO -- Could be that Tar figured he couldn't keep a secret like that up for long given that you had private access to him. Doubly true if recruits lose worship votes such that the chance of being found out via tech is great. Maybe he was doing damage control.

Iecerint · Mon Aug 02, 2010 4:37 am

Is there a reason we're not lynching TNM? I think he's probably more likely to be CL *and* mafia than dram, particularly if LMP is a cult recruit, and he's equally useless, hypothetical doctor abilities notwithstanding (or did he give his ability away to someone?).

Iecerint · Mon Aug 02, 2010 4:46 am

I'd damage control like that if I suddenly lost all my abilities. Granted, I don't have access to what it is that Tar exactly said, so I can't comment on whether his manner was consistent with that.

Edit: Ah, right -- TNM being mafia would make it too hard for Tar and DTM to win. I buy that.

Iecerint · Mon Aug 02, 2010 4:52 am

Katy is the most obvious CL pick to me due to the LMP slot interactions, but she's needed to find the cult based on her (fake?)claim, so it's no good if we're mistaken. Possible slip in that she claimed her ability wasn't critical or something; could be an attempt to look like she was willing to take one for the team without thinking critically about how her role could actually help town given presumed circumstances (e.g. rolecops needed to find cult). So that's a dilemma.

Ooba, presuming that the CL is someone who isn't me, who else makes the math work?

Iecerint · Mon Aug 02, 2010 4:56 am

Teach again.

Iecerint · Mon Aug 02, 2010 4:56 am

Short version, please -- similar to my distillation of the argument for why TNM can't be mafia.

Iecerint · Mon Aug 02, 2010 5:00 am

And nvm @ ooba, in that CL has nothing to do with the math, so.

If you happen to have a reactionshift list, that would be fine, though.

Iecerint · Mon Aug 02, 2010 5:05 am

I think it's unlikely to be dram. Roles are typically built around themes, and Limbo is flavorful enough on its own. Unless Limbo *IS* the cult recruitment method (unlikely), it's impossible.

Katy belongs to a god group. Also, all the flips so far have flipped as their claimed role, though I suppose cult may be different. The atheist flavor works for *a* cult, but not the hypothetical one that Katy leads (unless CL is the only player with a fakeclaim, or there's something particular about SG's version of Anubis).

VV I could see as a non-town slot. Why does he make it onto your CL list specifically, though?

Iecerint · Mon Aug 02, 2010 5:06 am

Do you think my counterpoints about dram and Katy are mistaken? Assuming so, why?

Iecerint · Mon Aug 02, 2010 5:46 am

Niki told me in QT that he thought Parama and I were non-mafia on the basis of things we have said about flipped players. CL is still possible for Parama (or Niki could just be wrong about the other bit). Fits with low activity level and that his powers (I think?) have yet to get us any information.

The point with Katy isn't that she's a god and not a mortal (which fails if Tar's spec fails), but that she's a god and therefore presumably not an atheist. It also doesn't hold if we're in a funky universe where Anubis herds atheists, or is an atheist (I dunno SG flavor), or if she has a fakeclaim and isn't Anubis at all.

Note that I don't necessarily think the cult is an atheist cult; I think it's Zombies. I only mentioned that because you mentioned that.

Anubis making Zombies would appear to fit deathgod flavor, but, again, I dun really know SG flavor. Tar implied it fit IIRC.

Still want Fate to remind me why Katy can't be CL.

Iecerint · Tue Aug 03, 2010 5:14 pm

Badplay is not townplay. That's a fallacy. The game isn't "is it scummy? else, town." It's "which is more probably: town or scum?"

Iecerint · Tue Aug 03, 2010 5:15 pm

ebwop e -_-

Iecerint · Tue Aug 03, 2010 6:05 pm

That's not at all the obvious default interpretation of that behavior IMO, at least not from that alone.

Iecerint · Tue Aug 03, 2010 6:32 pm

Yep.

As far as I can tell, the main difference between there and here is that you were friendlier there. I've been town with you, too, which wasn't quite like either that game or this one.

Iecerint · Wed Aug 04, 2010 8:20 am

If the cult is really the kind of cult that Tar posits and a lot of you seem to accept, I don't think they'd play it that way @ DTM.

Iecerint · Wed Aug 04, 2010 4:16 pm

I don't feel as guilty/misguided for trying to find Sky anymore. ^^

Iecerint · Wed Aug 04, 2010 4:52 pm

Oh, right. This is just the first flip.

Iecerint · Wed Aug 04, 2010 7:17 pm

^ ABR claimed miller, so that second one may be bogus.

Iecerint · Thu Aug 05, 2010 4:03 am

The only problem I can see is that, given that worship-loss works the way we think it does, Cult can probably recruit to give themselves the preferential abilities and/or cancel Niki very easily. I'd like the plan more if Niki had more of a safety net, at least.

I do like the idea of having all 4 worship conditions be used, because that will make who is hiding inability to worship maximally clear.

Iecerint · Thu Aug 05, 2010 7:24 am

Umm. Why didn't you share this earlier, if it's so obvious? Or are you claiming information on her?

And there's a cult => scummy behavior.

Iecerint · Thu Aug 05, 2010 8:04 am

I'm sending in Norse worship now.

Iecerint · Sat Aug 07, 2010 5:42 pm

Do not forget to send in worship.

Iecerint · Mon Aug 09, 2010 9:44 am

Huh? Is it tomorrow?

Reading.

Iecerint · Mon Aug 09, 2010 9:50 am

No, I still have my worship ability. Or, at least, I haven't received any information on the subject from Kinetic, so I assume I still have my worship ability.

This mean that the other player who was supposed to worship Norse (TNM?) was either recruited or failed to worship on time.

@ People who have QTs with me -- I'll check them when I log in from a computer that has them all bookmarked.

Iecerint · Mon Aug 09, 2010 9:54 am

OK, looking at Ooba's list, the other Norse worshipper was VV. Also, VV had 4 votes whereas I have 2 votes. So there is literally no reason to believe that I am voteless and the players who have indicated that I might be are not reading the game OR I do not understand a mechanic.

Parsimonious explanation is that VV cheated on worship because he wanted to use his ability in a specific way. If he's cult-aligned, he may have culted a 4-worshipper and voted where they were supposed to be.

The only possibilities given that are ooba (assigned JCA, should be 10 votes) and Fate (assigned Egyptian, shoudl be 5 votes) So, we need to know whether ooba or Fate lost worship. That would implicate VV as CL.

Iecerint · Mon Aug 09, 2010 9:56 am

Well, Egyptians have 5 (consistent with Fate being culted and replaced with VV), but the other had 8, so that implies other funky stuff going on.

Anyone who failed to worship as indicated should claim as much immediately.

Iecerint · Mon Aug 09, 2010 10:14 am

I saw the Lich theory. My thought upon seeing it honestly was that it was yet another obscure micro-version of a cult that a player brought up out of nowhere to justify a specific position on the back of minimal evidence. We were talking about a hypnotist cult just a few days ago, etc. (This one makes a LITTLE more sense to me in that at least we have undead flavor highly likely to be the cult IMO.) Also, the evidence that I am involved in it is sort of bogus AFAIK, as there is evidence that my votes are intact.

Also, it seems unlikely that Niki's plan works out, right, unless Katy is 110% mafia (cuz of what we've worked out about her ability resolution order from LMP's slot N1)? Cuz Tar was voteless (= voteless zombie) yesterday, but LMP was also a zombie yesterday. UNLESS, Tar only just his abilities and votes after LMP was killed. If that's the case, I think Niki's theory is still possible. I think I have that written down in a QT somewhere, so.

Iecerint · Mon Aug 09, 2010 10:19 am

One point for Niki's plan is that it would explain why MO (I think? I haven't really analyzed the worship, but I figure it'd've come out by now) has managed to not be culted without him being a very specific kind of CL who pushes for sub-optimal lynches, etc.

Iecerint · Mon Aug 09, 2010 10:27 am

Nikanor, N4ish, wrote:Fate and VV should focus each other to see what happens.

Oh my.

First, this is sketchy. Second, this shows that Niki totally should've figured out that I had my worship intact, even if he couldn't be bothered with the specifics of how many worship votes everyone had.

Third, Niki's major theory he put forth D4 in QT was that he thought I was non-cult, so he was going to network me with gods to fight the cult, implying that he thought gods were cultproof, which is again at odds with a belief on his part that I would be recruited, though this part is only odd by implication.

Iecerint · Mon Aug 09, 2010 11:02 am

Whoa, it looks like I mixed up Ooba's plan from Kinetic's God faction worship results, since they're listed in a different order. GOO are the ones with 4 bonus votes, which appear to have come from VV. So forget the VV/Fate/Niki thing. The player who lost worship is TNM.

Iecerint · Mon Aug 09, 2010 11:13 am

Oh, I forgot about ADD being killed for that reason. You're almost certainly correct.

Iecerint · Mon Aug 09, 2010 12:11 pm

Lottery: Mistletoe

Iecerint · Mon Aug 09, 2010 3:19 pm

K. I agree with you if that's the chronology.

It's unlikely that O was *always* cult. Remember that Katy got Benevolent Spirit D1. The only way it's possible for O to have always been cult is if Katy is CL.

Which, I think someone gave a reason for not being the case. I always liked her as CL, though.

Iecerint · Mon Aug 09, 2010 3:29 pm

^ Well, no one died.

Iecerint · Mon Aug 09, 2010 6:08 pm

If I am lynched today, I will die.

Still, I totally don't understand why people think I'm implicated in the cult. If O really was cult to start, the parsimonious explanation seems to be that Katy was CL, since her Benevolent Spirit result doesn't make sense otherwise.

Edit: It does create a plothole with dram flipping town, though, come to think of it, since she got Batman flavor correct, or something.

Iecerint · Tue Aug 10, 2010 2:24 pm

Tar, why did you claim you would target me given your suspicion that the cult needed to kill all the Gods, as MO has said you did (I assume in the QT?)? Have you targeted me? Are you claiming that you actually targeted Niki? If so, how does THAT jive with the kill-all-gods bit?

Iecerint · Tue Aug 10, 2010 3:08 pm

I could see the CL being a death god. You know, maybe like Anubis. Or Katy.

We all had nighttalk in-thread, so...what'd'ya mean by losing access to the thread?

I wonder if the zombie spirit has to possess a certain number of souls to win? It seems like it's not a cult we're at risk of being overrun by.

Iecerint · Tue Aug 10, 2010 4:58 pm

The CL probably doesn't cult whoever he targets. If that were the case, we'd presumably have gillions of cult already. This is @ Mina's speculation about Faraday being hard to control.

My play today has not been IIOA. It has occasionally (frequently) been /fail at "look before you leap," but I don't know where you're getting IIOA.

Iecerint · Tue Aug 10, 2010 5:27 pm

http://dictionary.reference.com/browse/gillion

Iecerint · Wed Aug 11, 2010 1:47 am

Do either Harry Dresden or Cavil have anything to do with zombies?

Iecerint · Wed Aug 11, 2010 2:59 am

The Dowsing item was Katy's right? I remember her not wanting to give the item to anyone other than Tar. What was the chronology there?

Iecerint · Thu Aug 12, 2010 7:10 am

Just a heads-up -- I just reread my role PM to check on something, and I'm not 100% on the lynch not killing me anymore. I'm PRETTY SURE I'll die if lynched, but I've asked for clarification. I'd misremembered my worship-less ability as something slightly different from what it is, and the way I remembered it wouldn't leave any ambiguity, so that's the source of this.

If zombie'd people lose their abilities, it shouldn't matter anyway, though. Even though I dun wanna die a zombie, etc.

Either way, the DK isn't an option.

Iecerint · Thu Aug 12, 2010 8:47 am

DKing me twice would work.

Iecerint · Thu Aug 12, 2010 8:52 am

Got the clarification. I can be lynched with impunity.

As for further clarifications -- I agree that it would probably help town slightly at this point, but ye know, if Faraday's correct/not lying, I'm headed for a kinda awkward position, especially given that Tar whined about losing his wincon, so....

I'd say (and I will) that I'd let you know after Tar dies, but that wouldn't be as reliable.

Again, two DKs would work. ;;

Iecerint · Thu Aug 12, 2010 9:00 am

The only way to do that I can see is:

DK: Someone-not-Tar
Lynch: Iec
Track: Tar. Or just block him w/e.
DK: Tar
Lynch: Tar target/Whoever

Or the alternative: Faraday is CL and Tar didn't target me last night. (Or Tar targeted me for another reason, but that seems sorta bogus because he wouldn't have lied about it.)

But you may have a trick or w/e idk.
Or maybe cult auto-wins on the x'th recruit and this will have a happy ending idk.

Iecerint · Thu Aug 12, 2010 10:32 am

EBWOP: to do that that**

Iecerint · Fri Aug 13, 2010 11:12 am

So put me in a Snowbank, and then shoot him? Or do you only use it at night? Or is the damage from whatever Tar did already hypothetically done?

Iecerint · Fri Aug 13, 2010 3:35 pm

I wish I knew why Katy being mafia was so obvious to everyone.

Iecerint · Fri Aug 13, 2010 3:53 pm

Well, since we know SB is scum, shenanigans aside, isn't it simpler to almost rule out that Katy is mafia because the mafia kill N4 was "SBmafia kills ABR" ?

Iecerint · Fri Aug 13, 2010 4:03 pm

Ugh, all this item-shifting is literally impossible to follow.

If that's the case, why does the kill on ABR

nevermind. I mis-remembered that shot-in-the-X flavor was SB's item's, but it wasn't.

Iecerint · Fri Aug 13, 2010 7:19 pm

When does item-passing resolve?

Iecerint · Fri Aug 13, 2010 8:01 pm

Query: If the Cult works the way you hypothesize, why wouldn't we just kill Katy upfront? Her ideal play at this point is to help cult along up to the point where town can no longer afford to deal with her, and the cult would appear to be innocuous outside of the bodies that need to be stepped over to kill them.

Iecerint · Fri Aug 13, 2010 8:47 pm

So, could DTM put either Tar or Niki+Me in a snowthing to prevent us from Zombieing based on the role we assume this is based on, or is that expected to be superfluous?

Iecerint · Sat Aug 14, 2010 9:53 am

OK, so, if we KNOW that Katy is mafia, why the hell are we entertaining the idea that she's the Cult Leader?

AS SOON AS I'M CONVINCED MY THEORY IS WRONG, PEOPLE TALK ABOUT IT.

Iecerint · Sat Aug 14, 2010 4:26 pm

OK, so, if Katy is at all likely to be CL, AND she is almost certainly the last mafia if she isn't, it is totally bogus to refrain from killing her today.

Iecerint · Sat Aug 14, 2010 6:31 pm

Isn't the normative way to contain a cult to kill the CL?

The best evidence we have about the zombies is that killing them yields a bad result. (It may be different if we knew how to prevent the disease-passing from happening.) There's a chance that zombie-killing is totally worthless (i.e. the universe where zombies keep existing until a separate CL role is killed).

Iecerint · Sat Aug 14, 2010 6:48 pm

My thought is that CL has a Zombie pet, and the Zombie pet passes around its Zombiehood upon death for so long as CL remains alive. I think this is a more plausible explanation because it avoids the plothole where LMP only managed to bite 1 player all game and the plothole where the Zombies are fucking impossible to stop (i.e. the cult I think Tar alluded to, where all night targeting or something cause Zombification).

But I sort of don't understand certain things about the game, so those probably aren't plotholes for some reason?

Iecerint · Sat Aug 14, 2010 7:20 pm

@ MO -- My guess would be that zombies get an extra action that, upon use, selects the subsequent zombie in the event of their death. It also explains Tar's extra target subsequent to his zombificaiton.

My subsequent guess is that the zombie doesn't show up on the census. After all, LMP flipped neutral rather than cult after his death. It's not clear that he would contribute to a "cult" census count in any event.

Regarding LMP's failure to die D1, I just noticed something interesting. I went back to the first page to check whether "neutral" was an official stand-in for all non-town non-mafiascum alignments, and I noticed that D1 was a "neutral day." Maybe neutral days empower the zombies? Both failures to kill LMP happened during that first neutral day IIRC.

(That aside, I don't see what the information about LMP being hard to kill has to do with matters.)

[@ Ooba -- I think we're all in agreement about the cult being the major remaining threat. The question is what course of action actually deals with them.]

@ MOish again -- Since cult appears to lack a kill AND seems to be very limited with regard to how often it can recruit, it would not surprise me if their wincon was non-standard. For example -- maybe they win when a certain absolute number of zombies have been created (e.g. 5 sequential individuals)?

Iecerint · Sat Aug 14, 2010 8:00 pm

OK, well, if you think that's the case, then there's no CL at all, and the zombies ARE the Modified Cult. But LMP flipped Zombie, not Modified Cult, at the start of D6 IIRC. (This isn't edited in on the first page, so I'd missed this before.)

Mina is definitely the other possibility for being off the census, if the above scenario is in play.

Thinking about it, it is EXTREMELY UNLIKELY that roleblocking will be any good. Soul-transfer/infection/whatever is either a Passive action given to the infector upon ability resolution (in which case it's already done and can't be roleblocked), or an analogous rapid ability. So yeah. I agree that killing infectee and then the infector might work -- though that suggests NOT killing Tar yet. (The problem is that I'm one of the infectees and can't be killed easily.) The alternate possibility is that doing that lets CL recruit a new zombie from the waiting list.

(I say infector instead of infectee because Kinetic once told me he'd tell me if my abilities changed, and he hasn't done so.)

The point is that they can't kill AND they can't really recruit, or that's what it looks like -- otherwise, the timing of Tar's recruit doesn't make sense. Because of that, it's likely that their wincon involves something other than taking over the town. Otherwise, they're just a gimp SK.

Iecerint · Sat Aug 14, 2010 8:05 pm

EBWOP: Nevermind; Zombie is edited into the 1st page; "neutral" hadn't been. But Pom's right about all the non-town non-MS players being "neutral," so that's vacuous information, so it being gone is fine. The rest is OK.

Why hasn't LMP been buried? Shouldn't end of D5+end of N5 do it?

Ignore this. Rechecked the rules. Start-of-D6 doesn't count for flips due to things that aren't lynches.

Iecerint · Sat Aug 14, 2010 8:06 pm

EBWOPx2: "MO's right about Pom being an instance of..." =>

Iecerint · Sat Aug 14, 2010 8:29 pm

Yeah, it was Kinetic's way of being evasive when I asked whether I would be told if I used up my deathproof ability. I asked because Tar claimed his had been used-up, and I wanted to see if I could catch him in a lie. Kinetic responded by saying that I would be informed if my abilities changed; when I followed-up by asking if one-shot ability use constituted ability change, he just sent me a smiley IIRC.

My theory is that the soul-tagging is neither rapid nor passive (it can probably be blocked); the subsequent body-jumping when (e.g.) Tar dies, though is. So you can't block it once it's set. It needs to be passive or rapid because it happened midday yesterday rather than at daybreak or twilight.

If Tar really targeted 2 players, either Niki or I is infected 100%, right? The only alternate possibility is that Faraday is lying. Or are you saying that Tar had 2 separate non-infecting abilities and a motive to lie about one of them?

The Zombie recruitment from the wait list is unlikely to be in play if Zombies are the entire cult.

***

Would anything in particular be wrong with this:

Daykill: Niki
Lynch: Iec (Needed with above because the aftermath of killing Tar is likely rapid and cannot be stopped)
Block: Tar (Because his infection appears to be a Daybreak thing and therefore is blockable)
Block: Katy (If we have a second one, I suppose, but it shouldn't matter)
~Check worship status. Assuming no shenanigans~
Daykill/Lynch Tar/Katy in some order

This is better than killing Tar first because it doesn't create ambiguity about who the Zombie is in the very probable case that either Niki or me becomes a Zombie given Tar's death.

Iecerint · Sat Aug 14, 2010 8:46 pm

Well, that is very sweet, but I AM HAPPY TO BE KILLED. I PROMISE. I TREASURE MY WINCON.

Am interested in what Niki thinks about things, since he's the other player whose wincon appears to be in jeopardy. Also, there is possibly something sketchy about Niki going on that can be confirmed by a 3rd party. I will elaborate if necessary.

More generally, I'd rather minimize wincon casualties than actual player casualties. Especially when my wincon's on the chopping block. ^^;

Iecerint · Sun Aug 15, 2010 6:18 am

I think that is an experiment that has already been carried out.

Iecerint · Sun Aug 15, 2010 2:24 pm

Yeah, I wanted to give him a chance to explain it to me in our QT first, but he's taken ages.

Basically, he has claimed that he's given TNM his item back, but TNM claims he has not received his item back. This is bogus if item-giving is rapid. Absence on Kinetic's part might explain part of it, but it's been a really long time since he first announced the transfer....

Iecerint · Sun Aug 15, 2010 3:17 pm

Niki claimed that he had already sent the item around midday August 9th EST. No claim on how much earlier the item was allegedly sent back. TNM asked Niki to send it back over several days after that in the thread IIRC.

I don't want to get much more specific than that vis a vie the time without the OK from Kinetic.

Iecerint · Sun Aug 15, 2010 4:37 pm

Well, I don't think I've explicitly alluded to any QT with TNM, but since you've guessed it, yeah, that's the other QT from Niki. He said his intent was to link up players he thought were unlikely to have been culted.

Iecerint · Sun Aug 15, 2010 4:55 pm

This is the chronology as I recall it:

1. TNM asked me to tell Niki to give him his item back.
2. I tell Niki to do so, even though he can read the Iec-TNM thread.
3. Niki says he's already given it back.
*TIME PASSES*
4. TNM asks again. I thought this was in the main thread, but maybe it was in the QT, too...?

Edit: Oh, also -- TNM doesn't have the item back as of August 13th. Maybe that bit on the 13th is what I was thinking of.

Iecerint · Sun Aug 15, 2010 4:58 pm

(Sorry @ TNM/Niki. I'd thought trying to get the item to TNM was already public. Still, you could be a bit more vocal...) <_<

Iecerint · Sun Aug 15, 2010 5:24 pm

I mostly agree with Mina. I think we should be fine in spite of that, though. Or you guys should, at least.

Yeah, TNM didn't have it as of August 13th.

Iecerint · Sun Aug 15, 2010 7:50 pm

Uh.

Please explain why you thought this had something to do with Mina, and/or why it has something to do with Faraday?

Iecerint · Mon Aug 16, 2010 6:18 am

So, I'm all for lynching me, but some of this logic doesn't make sense. If Fate is doing this nefariously, he's doing it to save Tar. And Tar's almost certainly not the CL. So Fate can't be lying to protect the CL.

Am I correct that Fate should've noticed this "slip" way way way back?

Iecerint · Mon Aug 16, 2010 6:20 am

EBWOP: UNLESS there is no CL, only demi-zombies plus an omni-zombie, who was LMP->Tar->Iec/Niki. Then Fate could have such a motivation.

Iecerint · Mon Aug 16, 2010 6:27 am

Why on earth would shooting someone else be extremely stupid? All evidence suggests that daykilling zombies has bad results.

Iecerint · Mon Aug 16, 2010 7:28 am

No, Katy's only chance of winning is to hope the cult is visibly pervasive enough that town can't afford to kill her anymore, or to make it seem that way.

Iecerint · Mon Aug 16, 2010 7:48 am

Your model doesn't explain what happened to Tar, except by attributing it to scum machinations.

Don't see what using ABR's census that way has to do with the counterclaim.

Iecerint · Mon Aug 16, 2010 7:50 am

If there were a hypnotist cult as you describe, I think we'd have seen more people pushing for killing Katy, since she appeared to be the last scum, and her death would've sealed a win for all but CL.

Iecerint · Mon Aug 16, 2010 8:07 am

I don't understand your first sentence.

Fatetown is a little VI for not picking up on someone lying about his night action until 3-4 days after the fact. Faradayscum is a little VI for faking a track on someone he couldn't fake one on.

But the other is true. It would be odd if Katy were town.

Edit: Tar's described scenario was my idea from awhile ago (CL with zombie pet).

Iecerint · Mon Aug 16, 2010 1:09 pm

OK, well, I retract my FatetownVI bit. I'd thought Faraday just re-mentioned it in QT or something.

Iecerint · Mon Aug 16, 2010 1:09 pm

Ooba's recent theories seem really myopic to me. Tar's seems most plausible, even if he's not precisely trustworthy.

Iecerint · Mon Aug 16, 2010 3:25 pm

Could be that a hypothetical "Track Infected" ability really keeps track of who's infected rather than tracking anyone.

@ Katy -- the theory is that killing Tar will make 1 Zombie sprout in his place. This is what appears to have happened D5. So it's a waste for town, albeit one town can deal with. I'm freaked because I don't want to lose my wincon.

Point: if cult wins by making a certain total number of zombies during the course of the game (on the basis that they are a gimp SK otherwise), Tar only makes sense as a LMP successor if LMP's slot had to choose his successor much earlier in the game. Tar would have made a GREAT choice early on, since he would auto-die after a certain amount of time. He would make a shit choice by D5, when he was pretty much confirmed town and hard to kill.

It could be that it's a more normative sort of cult, in which case the Tar choice is just what it looks like, but then cult again appears to be a gimp SK, or there are gillions of zombies and we cannot win, etc.

Iecerint · Mon Aug 16, 2010 5:40 pm

My own peril is kind of unique.

Shooting Faraday doesn't hurt my feelings. It does seem like a really dumb scum move on his part, though I don't know how else to explain it. If it was Faradaytown, wouldn't he have totally noticed the discrepancy ages ago?

Iecerint · Mon Aug 16, 2010 5:49 pm

Oh, right -- the basis of all this is that Fate lied "as town" ages ago. Forget I said anything.

Iecerint · Tue Aug 17, 2010 2:58 pm

Sorry. I thought you'd already talked about not getting in in-thread.

Iecerint · Tue Aug 17, 2010 4:58 pm

Niki, do you know what's up with TNM's item?

Iecerint · Wed Aug 18, 2010 6:34 am

It's not just a and b, ooba, but also c: the timing of Tar's shift coincided with LMP's death. This COULD have been cleverly manufactured on Tar's part, but it is unlikely IMO.

You think it's at all possible that Tar isn't a zombie?

Iecerint · Wed Aug 18, 2010 6:53 am

- Well, yeah, I agree with you. And Tar's not mafia, anyway, due to ABR being town and 2 lynchers having existed. Do not see what that has to do with SOMETHING appearing to have happened after LMP's death, even if...
- ...you don't buy the details.

Iecerint · Wed Aug 18, 2010 7:22 am

Yeah, like I said, it's possible that it could be a gambit, but that strikes me as relatively low-probability given that we know 100% that Tar was lyncher at the start of the game. I suppose the point is that "non-town said it" isn't as damning as it might usually be.

Iecerint · Wed Aug 18, 2010 1:42 pm

If there really are zombie hordes, I would love to join them. But I am skeptical.

Iecerint · Wed Aug 18, 2010 5:13 pm

THE PLOT.

IT THICKENS.

PERHAPS.

Iecerint · Thu Aug 19, 2010 2:37 am

Not really a surprise. MO and I were saying that zombification was probably rapid a long time ago.

Iecerint · Thu Aug 19, 2010 2:44 am

(I mean, he could still be lying, especially given that the idea's already been presented, but ye know.)

Iecerint · Fri Aug 20, 2010 3:08 pm

Unvote; Vote: Faraday

BTW -- Time is running out, and votes will probably reset after the shot goes. So we should probably shoot sooner rather than later if we're going to shoot at all.

Iecerint · Sat Aug 21, 2010 4:49 pm

I have not received a PM from Kinetic. /dance

Vote: Faraday

I think it's very likely that Faraday is non-town (well, more than normal) because he's the one who added that Tar had targeted me, and a hidden extra action from Tar doesn't make sense unless it's an infection.

Could be that there are gillions of infectionable parties and I just wasn't selected, though. in which case we should wait to see if someone claims "infected not converted" possibly.

Iecerint · Sat Aug 21, 2010 9:02 pm

Not really. Tar claimed immediately after LMP was shot. At the time, he claimed that his wincon didn't change until the following night, though he subsequently retcon'd that as a lie.

If Tar's prior-claimed state exists (like, half-recruited) exists, that player might claim in order to keep their wincon.

Iecerint · Sat Aug 21, 2010 9:02 pm

EBWOP: /drunkpost

Iecerint · Thu Aug 26, 2010 1:40 pm

I worshipped Egyptians.

Iecerint · Thu Aug 26, 2010 5:54 pm

Eh? Why'd he have you do that?

Iecerint · Fri Aug 27, 2010 12:47 pm

@ MO -- Eh? What makes me special?

Iecerint · Fri Aug 27, 2010 5:17 pm

By "why am I special" -- I meant "why am I a person who's different with regard to item bidding?" as per your earlier post.

Regarding VV's protect -- I still have my one-shot deathproof, unless I lost it without being told (and Tar was told when he lost his, so I doubt it). Unless scum has a one-shot omni-kill or something, I can handle myself even without VV's help.

If you just don't know who else you'd want to make potentially problematic to lynch the following day, I guess targeting me could be justified in certain cases, but I think anyone reasonably town that isn't me being targeted would better reduce the chance of a successful NK (given that the scum is somehow not Katy, which is pretty remote, anyway, so this is all probably beside-the-point, but ye know).

Iecerint · Fri Aug 27, 2010 6:28 pm

Oh. Is spear the only obvious remaining item, then? I've never seen Shaman King.

Iecerint · Fri Aug 27, 2010 6:47 pm

Lottery: Claws

k

Iecerint · Sun Aug 29, 2010 9:00 am

Hey, ooba, what do you mean when you say that I can't be scum on the basis of the attention I received D1? Several players attacked me D1, but I don't think any of them were scum. Katy did defend me, but that was all.

Iecerint · Mon Aug 30, 2010 5:36 pm

I got the item!

Lemme read over it~.

Iecerint · Mon Aug 30, 2010 5:41 pm

Hmm. I'm not sure the Possession ability is very helpful to me.

Should I hand it off to someone? But it's really unlikely to be much use at all, except that it might be nice to use the Possessions just to use em up.

Iecerint · Tue Aug 31, 2010 2:20 am

It becomes completely useless if its function is known publicly. That's why I think I should just hand it off. I'm thinking of MO? Sounds fine?

Iecerint · Tue Aug 31, 2010 3:21 am

I think the item is more useful in MO's hands than yours. It has to do with how the item works.

But I've actually just reflected a little and have noticed that I think it's almost impossible for town to lose so long as I hold this item and am not lynched. So ye know. Maybe I should just keep holding it.

I think MO will understand why I wanted to hand it off and then changed my mind when he sees what it does.

Have not sent it yet, though; want his input first.

Iecerint · Tue Aug 31, 2010 3:44 pm

Fair enough. I'll hold it.

Iecerint · Wed Sep 01, 2010 4:31 am

And worship. Or did we agree on GOO?

Iecerint · Wed Sep 01, 2010 4:58 pm

Whoa, I can't believe raj didn't claim The Doctor. O_O

Iecerint · Wed Sep 01, 2010 5:45 pm

I'd claim the Doctor just to claim the Doctor.

Maybe I'll do just that in another game sometime.

Iecerint · Thu Sep 02, 2010 1:18 am

I suppose you can see the ABRSky drama (AND the Blazer drama) in the Norse QT. I got really depressed and stopped focusing when it ended up being a dead end.

Iecerint · Thu Sep 02, 2010 4:13 am

Cult victory wouldn't have affected the town win AFAICT.

Iecerint · Thu Sep 02, 2010 5:00 am

Katy did pretty well, though. Glancing through some of the private isos, it looks like lots of players had town reads on her early on.

<3Katy<3