Of Gods And Men (GAME OVER!)

[Iecerint]

No, Katy's only chance of winning is to hope the cult is visibly pervasive enough that town can't afford to kill her anymore, or to make it seem that way.

[ooba]

At this point I disagree about the assessment that we're extremely unsure about how cult works. I think we've got a pretty reasonable model with a couple possible ways it could pan out that we're probably dealing with. You have yet to say anything that should convince me (or others I think) otherwise.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

Your pushing a model which bases its main point on what a claimed anti-town role said about being infected .. Your model does not make all that much sense ...
- LMP entered the game as cult zombie being
- LMP choose his successor as Tar
- Tar becomes affected only after LMP dies ?? - How does that even make sense flavor wise
- Tar loses his soul but does not become zombie until that night?
- Tar chooses his successor on that night
Far too inelegant. Your theory cannot reconcile itself to this fact too:
- You used ABR's census as a reason to point out that there was only one cult on D2 daybreak but
-- Fate has counterclaimed Faraday - one of them is lying - If you take Katy as the last Mafia - then that's wrong
(Pretty sure your response to this will be "@ooba, then Katy might not be Mafia and the cult might have killed Snow_Bunny" - but tis pretty clear Katy was the last scum who was redirected to her own partner)

Hypnotist model is simple. There's a cult leader who recruits people. They retain their wincondition but have Zombie added to their names. Given that, if its a day cult, there MIGHT be one CL+5 recruits (excluding D3), daykilling anybody but the claimed anti-town role is a bad move... Are you so sure on your theory that you're willing to take that kind of risk?

And if your theory is right and any protown player loses "his soul", then he will (should) claim it as fighting for cult is a losing proposition with town having so many blocks and tracks ..

[Iecerint]

Your model doesn't explain what happened to Tar, except by attributing it to scum machinations.

Don't see what using ABR's census that way has to do with the counterclaim.

[Iecerint]

If there were a hypnotist cult as you describe, I think we'd have seen more people pushing for killing Katy, since she appeared to be the last scum, and her death would've sealed a win for all but CL.

[ooba]

Your model doesn't explain what happened to Tar, except by attributing it to scum machinations.

Don't see what using ABR's census that way has to do with the counterclaim.

What happened to Tar meaning?

- MO said he doesn't expect a CL in the game since ABR's census gave one cult member at D2 start
- He said ort was the CL who entered the game in D2
- One of Fate,Faraday is lying scum since I do not think either falls into the VI category
- If you assume Katy is mafia, then one of em must be cult

Hence your theory of one cult alive at any time infecting the next is wrong ...

[VasudeVa]

Oh damn. I forgot we were playing ignore Fate.

Also, anything you guys need me for?

[Tarhalindur]

I can personally guarantee you that there is a cult leader who started in the game and that he or she is NOT a zombie. I can also guarantee you that this role is responsible for summoning LMP's player slot into the game. (This is mod confirmed to full recruits.)

I'd put better than 90% odds on our Cult Leader being a wizard (Faraday, Orbots, Mina) if Katy is our last Mafioso - I don't even need any cultist secret information for that. I haven't forgotten Babylon 5: Severed Dreams, and I'm damn sure Kinetic hasn't either. I just didn't think he'd actually go use that 1-scum-per-subfaction split again.

Most plausible mechanism for the cult I've seen so far: Recruit infects players with a virus by targeting, leader has a list of all players infected and activates a new zombie from among the infected when the old one dies.

Believe me or not as you will.

Also:
- ooba, quit convincing me you're a Zombie again.
- Fate, I'd put very good odds on you being full recruited (assuming you are infected) if/when I am killed.

[Iecerint]

I don't understand your first sentence.

Fatetown is a little VI for not picking up on someone lying about his night action until 3-4 days after the fact. Faradayscum is a little VI for faking a track on someone he couldn't fake one on.

But the other is true. It would be odd if Katy were town.

Edit: Tar's described scenario was my idea from awhile ago (CL with zombie pet).

[Mina]

So obviously, I'm going to hold off on the dayvig for now.

Why is everyone so shocked? I mean, I even told Faraday and MO in the QT last night that I'd noticed a contradiction between Fate's and Faraday's claims.

See, Fate? Now had you answered my question like a normal human being, we'd have figured all this out

on Day Four

. Still, PM Beholder to ask what all three of your actions were, just to be on the safe side. Maybe there's been a mix-up.

Now, I don't suppose you'd have learned your lesson from this, and decided to explain just why you fake-claimed dayvig and why you're trying to look lynchable even though before you'd claimed you were trying to draw a NK, did you?

ooba, are you saying that Fate made up a fake target? Check his ISO on Day Three. He actually mentions being unsure of the dates, and checking his PMs.

I swear, I don't know if you're cult or just crazy, but every time there's a piece of evidence against someone, it's as if you go out of your way to the very opposite conclusion from what that evidence should imply. You did the same thing with Katy.

Mighty Orbots, Faraday is almost certainly not Mafia. I'm confused. I don't think he'd be willing to be lynched if he were the cult leader, but his behaviour today has been very...um,

weird

.

[Mina]

EBWOP: Faraday is almost certainly not Mafia because he redirected

two

kills to scum.

You know what I need to do, when I have more time? (Right now I'm posting this from my phone.) Check ooba's vaunted worship analysis for myself to see which players might not have worship votes now that Tar has confirmed recruits cannot worship. (Now how on Earth could ooba have figured that out before Tar's claim? I don't think there was any evidence to imply this.)

[Faraday]

I always get called weird. People are so mean.

[Faraday]

My play's been pretty simple I thought, it's everyone else that's acting weird.

[Fate]

VI, Iecrint? WHEN did Faraday claim IN THREAD that he tracked me.

NEVER, it he only claimed his shit in the wizards QT, and Mina was all like "FULL CLAIM PL0X" instead of "FARADAY CLAIMED A TRACK ON YOU, FULLCLAIM NOW SO WE CAN SEE IF HES LYING"

If she had been explicit about WHY she wanted me to re-claim I would've been much less obtrusive.

[Fate]

Now, I don't suppose you'd have learned your lesson from this, and decided to explain just why you fake-claimed dayvig and why you're trying to look lynchable even though before you'd claimed you were trying to draw a NK, did you?

The hell would I explain my play before the game's over? Scum are still reading this ya know...

[ooba]

EBWOP: Faraday is almost certainly not Mafia because he redirected

two

kills to scum.

You know what I need to do, when I have more time? (Right now I'm posting this from my phone.) Check ooba's vaunted worship analysis for myself to see which players might not have worship votes now that Tar has confirmed recruits cannot worship. (Now how on Earth could ooba have figured that out before Tar's claim? I don't think there was any evidence to imply this.)

Because I analyze the worship votes .. N4 worship had 5 more claimed votes than usual which led me to that theory ..
- Not sure of the "They lose worship permanently" since N5 worship seems to be in order ..
- Most likely a temporary phenomenon but have to figure out why - I've have two theories regarding this
-- Cult members lose worship when recruited
-- Cult members lose worship when recruited + when they use their abilities
-- (I'm dropping the Cult members lose worship when they talk to the cult leader concept)

Nik - Can you let me know which QTs you created on each day? (I would ISO but I'm busy with work)

[Mighty Orbots]

@ooba, how does the hypnotist cult idea take into account that Tarhalindur has been playing against the town win condition and seems to be aware of the Zombie status. Unless he is the cult leader he shouldn't have any reason to do either of those with the hypnotist cult and even if he was a cult leader he'd certainly have no reason to out himself like he has.

That LynchMePls flipped just A Zombie clearly indicates that he started he is in some way tied to how things started. Maybe he was summoned in by the cult leader but hadn't become cult yet himself and maybe he was the only member of the cult at the start. Either way, somehow the Zombie status that Tarhalindur seems to have starts with him. Until this revelation that either Fate or Faraday has to be scum came up I was leaning towards the Zombie being the source of the infection on it's own but now there's a reason to think otherwise. It doesn't change the overall theory that the Zombies are the ones that spread the infection and that there's probably just one Zombie active at a time.

If we don't have 4 or so full cult members running around at this point (and I don't think that we do; a full cult in the game isn't reasonable and Albert B. Ramapge's Census would have picked it up) then something happened to Tarhalindur when LynchMePls died. There's no reason for his behavior to change like that unless something unexpected happened or he had such a big cushion for his faction that he could afford the chaos and attention which was going to get him killed and definitely tip us in to the threat. And even with a huge faction it's done no good at all. Unless he benefits from getting killed there had to have been an unexpected change. Further, if he'd already gotten his new win condition then why would he bother saying anything? It would just be bad play.

There's also good reason to think that Tarhalindur does have an infection action. With both his claim and Faraday's track we've got claims that something like that is happening. Even if they're both cult unless we had a full cult with players who knew they were recruited out there why claim that in a way that leads us to both Tarhalindur and Faraday as suspects as a means to distract?

It's likely that if someone loses a soul but hasn't lost their town status right away I agree, they're probably better off if they claim it given the amount of blocks and tracks we've got at our disposal but I'm not assuming that's the case when I come up with what to do in various situation.

Right now I think that I am inclined to forgo the day kill in favor of a massive roleblocking/redirecting/jailkeeping campaign and lynching Faraday to determine his alignment as that's going to be a good indication of what the best next move would be.

The question would be who do we block, redirect and jailkeep.

@Mina, I agree that Faraday has redirected at least one kill to mafia. If he flips mafia he would almost have to have done the other kill rather than redirecting it which makes even less sense. I really don't expect him to flip mafia. Town or neutral seem exceptionally more likely.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Mighty Orbots]

So I know that I'm not recruited cult right now even if there's some dormant infection cult mechanic (and this'll use my roleblock anyhow.) Here are the players still in the game and my feelings about them and the priorities for blocking and what not if we lynch Faraday

Probably Safe to leave alone:
10. Parama
12. totallynotmafia
18. Mina
23. Albatross
28. DTMaster
29. Sobriquet

Not blockable in a useful way:

8. ooba

To be blocked/etc.

7. Fate (if Faraday flips town we know Fate is scum. Even if he's not scum we can block him just fine and not worry about it.)
14. VasudeVa (I don't think he's likely to be scum but others seem to so I'm fine blocking him today/tonight)
17. Nikanor (If Faraday is town he's in danger of being infected at this point)
20. Katy (probably mafia member but also a rolecop; we'll want to redirect)
21. Tarhalindur (clearly we want to block him if we don't kill him)
26. Iecerint (If Faraday is town he's in danger of being infected at this point)

I think that I'm inclined to use my block on Fate and have Mina use her quad block on Tarhalindur, VasudeVa, Iecerint and Nikanor (all as Zombie) today.

If Faraday flips town then we'd want to redirect Katy to Fate to learn his role name and probably Jailkeep Iecerint (as the most likely cult leader other than those two who wouldn't have been blocked by Mina if he wasn't a Zombie.) We can talk about what makes sense for Parama's track. In this case tomorrow our actions would depend a bit on the role cop on Fate.

If Faraday flips neutral, no Zombie in the name then he was probably the cult leader. In that case it probably doesn't matter too much what we do with the rest of our actions (other than redirecting Katy somewhere) but we probably day vig Tarhlanidur and lynch Katy tomorrow for the win.

If Faraday flips neutral and has Zombie in the name then we probably still want to jailkeep Iecerint (again as the most likely cult leader) and we can talk about how to redirect Katy and have parama track. I don't expect this to be the way things go and I'm not sure what the best plan for tomorrow would be if it does happen.

If Faraday filps mafia (and this is even less likely than the last) then we don't need to redirect Katy on our own and she can use her rolecop in a way that she thinks will be useful. I really don't expect this one to happen so I'm not that worried about working out the details.

I'd say that one of the first two is most likely to happen but I'll invite comments now. In this plan I'd have Faraday pass his item to Mina.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Mighty Orbots]

@Mina, actually, what sort of action is your quad roleblock? Is it a twlight action? I guess I'm assuming that it is. If it's a daybreak action instead then that gives us more flexibility.

And just to confirm, you don't need to get all the role names right for it to work do you? If you submit 4 role names and two of them are right then are those two blocked and the other two not? If that's not how it works then that makes this plan I'm talking about much worse.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Mighty Orbots]

Mod, could we please get a prod on Nikanor?

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Iecerint]

OK, well, I retract my FatetownVI bit. I'd thought Faraday just re-mentioned it in QT or something.

[Iecerint]

Ooba's recent theories seem really myopic to me. Tar's seems most plausible, even if he's not precisely trustworthy.

[Mina]

Mighty Orbots, my roleblocks are actually

rapid

actions--meaning I can send them in at any time and block all actions (including twilight and daybreak ones) for the rest of the day-night cycle. Kinetic told me I have to send them all in at the same time, though (meaning I can't scatter them out through the day). I'd assume one block failing doesn't affect the others, but I'll check with Beholder just in case.
======

NEVER, it he only claimed his shit in the wizards QT, and Mina was all like "FULL CLAIM PL0X" instead of "FARADAY CLAIMED A TRACK ON YOU, FULLCLAIM NOW SO WE CAN SEE IF HES LYING"

If she had been explicit about WHY she wanted me to re-claim I would've been much less obtrusive.

Except for all I knew,

you

could be the liar. If you were scum and I'd claimed that Faraday had tracked you, then obviously you'd have claimed your real action. And I also wanted to prove that you weren't the dayvig.

Fate, just to be 100% on the safe side, PM Beholder, and check what actions he says you sent in for nights one to five. Because you actually gave in-depth reasons for why you chose to target Chronopie (he'd claimed Egyptian). How did you remember all this, but not remember that you targeted Nikanor instead?

I don't want us to lynch Faraday only for you to cover your ass afterward by saying, "Whoops. Um...it turns out I actually

did

target Chronopie, but I first targeted Nikanor and then sent in another PM that I deleted from my sentbox afterward."

No one go ahead with a lynch until Fate confirms every single one of his actions with Beholder.

I'm still a little baffled by why Faraday would have faked a tracking result as scum in the first place. Even Tarhalindur (who clearly wants to get Faraday lynched) says that Faraday has a tracking ability (only it's called Track Infected). Maybe to hide his infection target? I really don't know.

[Katy]

My request is to be redirected to Fate. Pretty please? *with puppy eyes*

I have no experience with different kinds of cults, except one that had a mass suicide trigger. That was an awesome game, I'll tell you about it sometime over tea and crumpets. Apart from that all I can say is that the zombie flavor certainly fits with the "Bite" and "infected" stuff, but as far as I know we are getting this all from an untrustworthy source, yes?

@Faraday, I don't think you've been weird, for what it's worth, although it did seem like you posted a lot in a row, but several people have done that frequently in this game.

I don't know why Faraday would fake a track when he does seem to be able to track. It would mean that on one night only he decided to do something secret and pretend he was tracking Fate, when it seems like most other nights he's accounted for, and I can't make that fit in with cultist. And I think Mina is correct that as he most certainly was responsible for the killing of the Godfather, it's pretty much impossible that he is mafia. Given that Snow_Bunny flipped mafia, there's no way she was actually targeting Inhim the night he died.

@Fate, what reason do we have to believe ANY of your target claims or anything you say period? Since you seem to lie about anything and everything, I'm certainly not lynching anyone on your word. I'd be happy to lynch Fate though.

I agree with vigging Tar when the time is right. He's spreading paranoia and he's already got one person (Iece) freaked about killing him. We know he's a zombie, and I don't know any reason to keep him around, especially since everything he says introduces doubt and uncertainty. I think the planning that is going on now is really smart, but if we second guess ourselves too much trying to work out an auto-win scenario, we'll be tripping all over ourselves. There's always going to be some doubt, but I do not believe that getting rid of the zombie will cause umpteen more to instantly sprout. If that were the case, we would have had to catch the cult leader right at the beginning of the game to even have a chance to win and I don't think the game was set up like that.

[Iecerint]

Could be that a hypothetical "Track Infected" ability really keeps track of who's infected rather than tracking anyone.

@ Katy -- the theory is that killing Tar will make 1 Zombie sprout in his place. This is what appears to have happened D5. So it's a waste for town, albeit one town can deal with. I'm freaked because I don't want to lose my wincon.

Point: if cult wins by making a certain total number of zombies during the course of the game (on the basis that they are a gimp SK otherwise), Tar only makes sense as a LMP successor if LMP's slot had to choose his successor much earlier in the game. Tar would have made a GREAT choice early on, since he would auto-die after a certain amount of time. He would make a shit choice by D5, when he was pretty much confirmed town and hard to kill.

It could be that it's a more normative sort of cult, in which case the Tar choice is just what it looks like, but then cult again appears to be a gimp SK, or there are gillions of zombies and we cannot win, etc.

[Fate]

"Fate, just to be 100% on the safe side, PM Beholder, and check what actions he says you sent in for nights one to five. Because you actually gave in-depth reasons for why you chose to target Chronopie (he'd claimed Egyptian). How did you remember all this, but not remember that you targeted Nikanor instead?"

I will. IIRC, I CLAIMED targeting Chronpie and gave in depth reasons because THATS WHAT MADE SENSE (i.e., if I wanted to be sure about my target I SHOULD have targeted Chronopie who claimed Egyptian) IN ACTUALITY, and I've double/triple/quad checked like eight times,

the only PM I sent to Beholder was that one on Sunday June 20th saying FOCUS NIKANORZZZZZZZZZ. And not another one in sight, and I DONT delete my sent PMs.