Mini 980 - Trader Mafia (Game Over)

[Fishythefish]

My first thought is that the minimum bids are mostly really, really low (the main exception is pickpocket, which is probably a pretty realistic price). There is ~1 ability per person there - even if some more are going to come onto the market, you'd expect the average ability price to be substantially more than half our cash. Don't be fooled into thinking the minimum price is a fair one, particularly for the more powerful abilities.

[Fishythefish]

Thanks for clearing that up.

[Fishythefish]

Hmmm. That seems to work.

@mod:

does Money Win end the game?

[Fishythefish]

Ah! I for one had read the money win as an either/or thing (the rules are written right. I just can't read).

[Fishythefish]

Actually, there's no 12 hour period after the lynch - as soon as the lynch happens, the night happens.

FoS

Jack. In this game, everyone is thinking about buying night actions. So they are thinking about their own night actions. Jack's focus on the mafia's actions is more likely to come from scum.

[Fishythefish]

@Jack:
1) I don't see what I accused you of in Andrius's post.
2) TBH, I didn't even consider deliberately misleading people about the rules, or that someone else might have done. In this case, it seems that protown PRs are at least as likely as scum to get screwed by your lie here.

[Fishythefish]

I was thinking of the doctor and the cop (or rather, either of those which are bought by town). They would be just as likely to miss their actions as scum.

[Fishythefish]

On Jack's name changing:

Originally, I made a point against him - and I still think what he said is a scumtell. He implicitly replied with the rather poor defense "shouldn't you also suspect Andrius?" by changing the name in my post. I pointed out that Andrius hadn't done the same thing, and now he's trying to make a joke out of it.

[Fishythefish]

vote: Jack

[Fishythefish]

Or, rather,

##vote: Jack

[Fishythefish]

@mod:

What timezone are we working in/what's the current time?

[Fishythefish]

The person with the nightkill should definitely claim if they are town. Then, the town should 100% direct them (no shortlists). Unless you are unlucky enough to target scum whose partner has the doc ability (unlikely), there's no danger in directing the NK.

I think I disagree with Jack about cop being low town priority. If scum has it, it's half as likely to catch scum.

If town gets investigation immunity, they should probably claim it. Same might go for double voter - the confusion that causes about how near a lynch is is probably more likely to hurt the town than otherwise.

@mod:

I voted Jack, not farside.

[Fishythefish]

@farside: aiming for body armoured scum is always possible; the only disadvantage of us aiming a vig is if the scum know that they need to doc their partner.

Even then, they would probably do that anyway. So yeah, aiming a vig seems to have no drawbacks atm.

[Fishythefish]

I'm actually thinking farside is right about discussing these things - better to leave it until after the bidding.

[Fishythefish]

Hmmm. The scum-will-put-him-over $1000 could be fixed by making $999 smaller (500 would probably do) and him taking out a big loan to buy things.

There are other problems which it's probably unwise to go into right now, but I don't think they are fundamental.

However, it totally relies on a confirmed townie, and we don't have any of those. Also, with the number of abilities already would probably break it - it's a pretty delicate strategy. It's not going to work here.

The person with the NK needs to claim if they are town. You can't be killed, as you have the only kill, and the town needs to be able to direct you or it

will

assume you are scum.

@Andrius: note that you can't wire money if you're in debt.

Also note that deadline clocks are 24 hour.

[Fishythefish]

IMO, poor breaking strategies are way more likely to come from overexcited town than scum. From Flash's post I get a vibe of a feeling I get sometimes when I feel I've had an insightful setup idea, and I think it's genuine.

The double voter should claim, since we'll know who they are soon enough anyway. I'm betting they are scum - it's an ability scum would buy much more than town, particularly if they didn't realise (as was probably common) that it would show up in votecounts.

##vote: Zang

Hi, everybody. I have three pages to read (I didn't think there would be this much pre-game talk.

Also, why is everyone voting? You do realize that you can't unvote.

So, half the players have just put down irreversible votes in Zang's mind? He seems remarkably chilled about it. Then asks Jack if he's claiming scum, which he clearly isn't - I just can't think why you'd ask that question. Not saying anything of interest during the auction is also a point against him (and probably a few other people) - scum would be way more secretive about what they were thinking then.

[Fishythefish]

Any reasons?

[Fishythefish]

It's not the rule misunderstanding; it's the way you reacted to what you would have perceived as a total disaster for the town. If you thought that several players had cast votes they couldn't take back, why on earth were you so calm about it?

Self voting during the early game is clearly not claiming scum.

Re: posting during the auction; I was thinking that people who didn't comment much on the auction itself were more likely scum. But reading better, that's really most people. I withdraw that point.

Why are you voting for me?

[Fishythefish]

Since a player is not claiming to have bought the NK I assume scum.
Fishy why would you assume scum would buy the double vote ability. That is strong but I think scum was focas on those that sold for much higher.

I agree re: NK. Obviously there's still time for a town killer to claim, but if we don't get a claim pretty soon it's safe to assume they are scum.

I think several abilities here are scumtells. Most obviously investigation immunity and the unclaimed NK, but also double vote. The reason for my focus on that is that we can find out who they are.

@Zang: I don't see what you mean by "because you knew something was wrong", in the context of your post about unvoting. Could you try to rephrase that?

Double voter is Jack, being the crossover between the two votecount anomalies. Why did you buy it, Jack?

FoS: VV

. Not talking about the mechanics isn't a problem. But being so desperate to defend yourself that you say the mechanic which just sold some extremely strong abilities doesn't really matter/apply yet is really off.

@Zajnet: in my experience, you don't want to drown in the setup. Scumhunting isn't affected much by all these abilities in unknown places - and it's not really inherently any more confusing than a closed setup. There'll almost certainly be some points where the game mechanic is critical, but until then you'd be well advised not to think too much about it.

[Fishythefish]

Link to that VV town game, Jack or VV? (Unlike VV, I sometimes don't get round to reading meta I request, but I'll try)

[Fishythefish]

Zajnet was expressing that he was finding scumhunting difficult

because

of the unusual setup. My experience is that in unusual/confusing setups setup speculation is done too much, to the detriment of "normal" scumhunting.

While the marketplace has provided plenty of discussion so far, I'd say there is a lot less alignment related stuff flying around than at this stage of a typical game.

The setup is obviously important, and when it is useful to form strategies and/or find scum, of course it matters. But talking about the setup isn't a substitute for scumhunting, and I think towns tend to talk about the setup too much way more than they talk about it too little.

[Fishythefish]

@Fish: I don't get the FoS. Soo, I'm suspicious because I don't want to talk about who won the NK/bulletproof/whatever but am willing to talk about the DV which was obviously bought by Jack? What desperate defensiveness hm?

The desperate defense I refer to: when attacked for not contributing during the marketplace stage, your defense was that you were "not really interested in talking about mechanics that don't really matter/apply yet". Whatever alignment you are, this is totally untrue. The mechanics clearly matter and apply already. The only reason I can see for saying this is trying to discredit that point against you, and not caring about the truth of your arguments while doing so.

I do

not

suspect you for failing to talk about the NK/BP/whatever. I suspect you because of that post.

While town should be interested in buying abilities, scum would be a lot more interested in them. Just sayin.

Why?

##vote: VV

[Fishythefish]

@Fish: 1. No one is claiming whatever they bought(yet), so any discussion is theory and also moot. You yourself agree that we should not drown ourselves in speculation and that was what I was talking about.

2. Because without the powers, scum are NK-less, not to mention weak. Also if they didn't get it, some one else got it and they'll fear for their necks. Shouldn't that make them more interested in buying/finding out who got the powers hm?

@Andrius: Well, I know how you act when you're scum .

1. Discussion being theory doesn't make it bad, or moot. That's really not the point though; you didn't say the

discussion

was irrelevant at this stage, you said that the

mechanic itself

wasn't important.

2. OK.

@farside: the reason I think that being a double voter is a scumtell is just that scum would want that ability more. It's more important for them to have control of lots of votes, because they know what the right way to use them is. It's also a generally antitown ability whoever has it, at least at the start of the game.

Clearly, I don't believe in this enough to be voting for Jack at this point, but I do think it makes him a bit more likely to be scum.

[Fishythefish]

Yes. The bolded part means discussion of mechanics. But the end of that sentence is clearly saying the

mechanics

, not the

discussion

, don't really matter/apply yet.

I think the DV makes Jack a bit likelier to be scum. But not as likely as you.

[Fishythefish]

That's L-1.

@VV: what do you mean by Jack's "scummy use of the double vote"? Self voting may be odd, and in certain circumstances can be horribly antitown, but how is it a scumtell?

@farside: I really think that scum are more likely to bid for a double vote than town - is that what you are Fossing me over?

[Fishythefish]

I don't see the relevance of the NK and the pickpocket here. There are 4 scum players, and I don't think that one or two abilities being in scum hands (the NK very likely is, pickpocket could go either way) has much bearing on what else they might have bought.

Meh. Maybe you're right about bidding to keep it out of scum hands. My instinct is that town will generally be less interested in have multiple votes than scum, but that might just be because I never really thought about bidding for it myself.

[Fishythefish]

@Fish: Are you reading the same sentence as I am? That sentence reads to me as 'The discussion is doesn't matter yet', not 'The mechanics don't matter yet.'

Let's quote that sentence in full again:

I'm here. Not really interested in talking about mechanics that don't really matter/apply yet.

1) The word "that" refers to a noun. In this case, the only noun. Mechanics.
2) The word "don't" agrees with a plural noun. In this case, the only noun. Mechanics.
It's not like this sentence is wrong in any way. It's a perfectly grammatical sentence, with no ambiguity in it, which says that the mechanics don't really matter/apply yet.

Again, you defend yourself with points that just don't make any sense. And for me, that's a major scumtell - you clearly care far, far more about the defense than about the accuracy of your statements.

@VV: why is dispersing your own wagon scummy? What makes you think that was Jack's intention? Generally, you seem to be saying that Jack's wagon dispersal, his double vote and his self vote (perhaps?) are linked, and that some or all of these make him scummy. It would help if you could clarify your position - what exactly has Jack done that you think scum do more than town?

@Zajnet: "The scum were bidding on the NK and the pickpocket" - news to me. While I agree the scum very likely bought the NK, there's no particular reason to think they bough pickpocket. Have you got inside information here?

Either way, there are 4 scum, and they can all take out loans. Saying that they couldn't have bought the DV for 41 is a bit silly.

@Zang, SPS, SK, Flash, anyone I've missed: who is scum and why? This game needs more from you.

[Fishythefish]

I almost can't believe I'm arguing this. If you were agreeing don't with a gerund, the sentence would be
"I'm not really interested in [talking about mechanics] that

doesn't

really apply yet."
Even without this, the natural reading of that sentence is totally clear, and I simply do not believe you meant this form. For one bonus thing, "talking about mechanics" is something that can "matter" or not, but I fail to see how "talking about mechanics" can "apply" or not. Unlike mechanics, which can both "matter" and "apply".

I'm voting you because of -
1. The original sentence - I don't believe you genuinely thought the mechanics didn't matter. You simply said that to further you argument.
2. This argument. There's no way you can think you sentence was originally intended to mean the discussion was irrelevant. Again, you're lying to further your argument.
3. I think your stance to Jack is off. I've got no clear picture of which of {self-vote, double vote, wagon derailment} you find scummy, of why any of these are scummy in your eyes, or of the links between them you've implied. I think that's because that picture doesn't exist; you were just hoping something stuck.

[Fishythefish]

Mistake =/= lying indeed. Here, I don't think it's plausible that it's a mistake.

I've got no problem with pressure votes (although I somewhat dislike people saying that's what they are doing). But when asked why you were voting Jack, you responded with this. That's not saying it was a pressure vote, that's giving reasons for your vote. If you give reasons for a vote, you should have reasons for thinking the guy is scum. I don't think you did here.

I don't see the relevance of you unvoting Jack since then.

Why do you think I'm scum?

[Fishythefish]

@VV: when commenting on why you thought Jack was scum, you were replying to farside's post which was above mine. I've got no desire to speculate on your scumbuddy right now; you haven't got any particular links that I have noticed. There are one or two players on your wagon I doubt are bussing you, but almost everyone would be reasonable for your buddy.

So, in 232 you thought I was scum because I was wrong about the post 191 was replying to? This is just a terrible reason.

Re: your mistake (or not). The reason I don't think it's a mistake is that it makes perfect sense as it stands, and isn't even a corruption of a similar sentence that pretty much makes sense and means what you are claiming. As for why you would have said it, I touched on this a while back - you'd been attacked for not talking about the mechanics during the auction. Wanting to defend yourself, you posted this, without thinking about how true it was.

@Zajnet: the line "we can't tell whether it was a mistake, so it's a nulltell" makes no sense. Compare with the line "we can't tell whether he's scum, so his play is a nulltell" - there's really no difference. You can look at his posts, and judge how likely the mistake he's claiming is. Here, for me at least, the answer is "very unlikely indeed".

Yeah, if a townie has II they should certainly claim so. There's no drawback - note in fact that you can't hand the ability back to scum, as nightkilled players' abilities don't go back on the market.

Re: mafia B having a name. In this game, the setup is sufficiently open that that can't mean anything.

FoS: SPS

for active lurking with lashings of IIoA. Who is scum and why?
@Zang: do you still think Jack is scum? I never really worked that one out - why is it exactly?
@Navy: who is scum?

@mod:

Please prod flashstorm and Nobody Special.

[Fishythefish]

You knew what he meant?

1. "Talking" is not something that can "apply". What does the sentence "Talking about mechanics doesn't apply here" mean?
2. The word "don't" refers to the plural noun mechanics, not the singular noun "talking".

I can just about see how, at a stretch, you could claim this is a mistake - a corruption of "Not really interested in talking about mechanics that doesn't really matter/apply yet.". I think this second sentence is stilted, and I don't really believe it, but it's just about possible. But to claim the natural reading is that the talking about mechanics doesn't really matter yet is not credible.

Why are you particularly interested in who VV's scumbuddies might be? Do you think that he has few enough likely buddies that this makes him unlikely scum?

[Fishythefish]

@VV: I don't share your view that if you had a scumbuddy they'd be "going nuts". They might well think that obviously defending you was a bad idea.

If my interpretation of events is correct, you were defending yourself and you made a pretty serious misjudgement. You probably didn't think hard about the post before you posted it. I agree that the fact that what you said is pretty obviously a silly thing to say makes it more likely it was a genuine mistake.

@NS: why do you want to know what SK thinks about VV's possible buddies, if you're not interested yourself?

[Fishythefish]

@Fish: It's called 'generating discussion.' Hush now, the adults are talking.

Urgh. What a horrific post. "Generating discussion" is a terrible reason to ask questions you don't want to know the answers to, and have no particular reason to ask. The second sentence is an ad hominem wanting me to stop asking you about it, or just generally discredit me. Why did you ask that question if you aren't interested in VV's scumbuddies?

Fos: NS

@VV: I didn't say I think it is likely it was a mistake. Simply that your argument made it

more

likely. What do you mean by me looking "somewhat protown but really suspicious"?

I also found your stance on Jack really unbelievable - it didn't feel like a position you believed in at all.

@SK: you were all up for a VV wagon, until Jack moved off it. Your only reason for not voting was that it was a hammer (which is of course a good reason). Why the sudden change of heart?

[Fishythefish]

Of course there's nothing wrong with thinking that, if that's what you thought. My problem is that you mentioned several aspects of Jack's play as reasons you were voting him - lying about the double vote, self voting and the way the wagon on him fell apart. I don't see how any of these are indicative of Jackscum - and more to the point I don't understand why you thought they were.

Now you may realise that there was some element of OMGUS to your stance on Jack - but when you voted him, that wasn't your reason. Why did you find him scummy (rather than just antitown) then?

What is it about my play that makes me "very suspicious"?

[Fishythefish]

##vote: Andrius

Not a good catch up post. The alignment related things in it:
1. Asking an already OMGUSy player to become more OMGUSy.
2. On the farside wagon. Some fence sitting - the bad kind where you aren't undecided, just have no intention of doing anything until other people do.
3. A prediction that there is scum on the dispelled farside wagon. He doesn't give a reason for this (why is being on a fast dispelling wagon a scumtell?).
I dislike the comment on grammar - while it seems a silly thing to be arguing over, I think it's quite obvious here that the grammar of that sentence is hugely relevant to whether someone dropped an enormous scumtell. To dismiss that as irrelevant just because it's talking about grammar is both easy and wrong.

[Fishythefish]

@Andrius: VV gave a some-of-these-are-scum list, which included precisely all the players on his wagon. SK wasn't there, and you asked why.
I'm not saying you should have followed the wagon blindly. Here's what you said:

Ok wow. The farside wagon jumped up out of nowhere. I agree with it to an extent. I just hope these wagons don't push us to what happened in a current game, where the town (before I replaced in) decided to wagon 3 people to L-1 and force claims. /bad idea

Ok wow. That farside22 wagon dispelled really fast. I'm willing to bet game money that there was a scum on that wagon (even if farside was scum herself. Nothing like bussing.)

So. What do you think of the farside wagon? You agree with it to an extent. Which is pretty much totally meaningless. What good points have been made against farside? We don't know. How likely is farside to be scum? We don't know. Are you likely to vote farside over other players? We don't know. This reads very much like scum who wants to be able to make their mind up when it becomes clearer whether this wagon is leading to a lynch.

I think you're very wrong about the grammar thing. If I say a sentence meaning "I'm scum", but I claim it has some other harmless interpretation, it's clearly important to work out whether that harmless interpretation is likely. Sounds like something you believe though.

Disliking VV's wagon hopping. Generally liking Andrius's response.

##vote: VV

[Fishythefish]

Actually, I was bringing up that sentence only in arguing with Andrius. It's still one of my reasons for voting you, certainly. I never said it was a "likely mistake" - I said that one particular piece of evidence made it

more

likely a mistake.

I don't understand your point on wagon hopping - why does there being only one wagon other than yours make you jump on it?

There's a difference between being interested in survival and

only

being interested in survival. From the way you hop on any wagon which might rival yours, it looks like you don't care who we lynch as long as it isn't you.

[Fishythefish]

No, I don't think you made a mistake. I'm not 100% certain, but it's unlikely.

[Fishythefish]

There are some things that make me think it wasn't a mistake. There is one thing that makes me think it more likely to be a mistake. Why on earth shouldn't I consider both?

By your argument, if I think someone scum I should ignore all evidence to the contrary. You are saying precisely that it is wrong and scummy to consider both sides of the argument. Which is an extraordinarily horrible attack.

No access for ~24 hours.

[Fishythefish]

@Andrius: when I referred to "something you believe" I meant your stance on the grammar thing. It feels genuine.

I've got nothing to say atm. VV is the best lynch.

[Fishythefish]

@VV: your case on me amounts to "seeing both sides of an argument is scummy". There's no more to it than that. Your two contrasting quotes are:
"I agree that this is a piece of evidence in favour of argument A".
"I don't believe argument A is true".
There is quite obviously no contradiction there.

[Fishythefish]

@VV: there is no contradiction or scumminess in acknowledging a point in support of an argument you disagree with, or in not being certain about something. Your pair of quotes has the same form as the following:
"I agree that the fact that Rio Ferdinand being injured makes it more likely that Algeria will beat England. "
"No, I don't think Algeria will beat England. I'm not 100% certain, but it's unlikely. "
Clearly, these make sense together. And if you believe the second one, it's no reason not to say the first.

I don't really understand the term cognitive dissonance, but AFAIC here you are using it to mean some combination "not being certain about something" and "contradicting yourself". The first is not a scumtell, and the second I have not done.

[Fishythefish]

I don't intend to argue this any further. If anybody else sees any merit in your arguments, I'll have it out with them.

[Fishythefish]

Zajnet's initial contributions today are odd. Feels like he wants to keep the Andrius thing from yesterday going, with no particular reason - what does it mean that Andrius is "our best lead", other than that he had a wagon on him yesterday?

I agree with SK that NS's reasons for thinking Andrius is scum are very contrived. They feel like a game of "what can I find that looks like a scumtell?" rather than "who is actually scum?". I also dislike NS's play in my argument with him yesterday - his stances were:

StK, it makes no sense that you are 'convinced' that Vas is scum yet you refuse to vote. Clarify, please? You also have a list of "other" scum. Please, which is most likely out of that list to be paired with VV?

@Fish: I don't have much interest in who might be buddies with whom. I was asking StK what HE thought. I suspect you're not trying to misrep me, so I won't accuse you. But read me carefully next time.

@Fish: It's called 'generating discussion.' Hush now, the adults are talking.

Why did you ask that question if you aren't interested in VV's scumbuddies?

@Fish: I don't have

much

interest in who might be buddies with whom.

Not much != none.

So. I found NS's orginal question odd. When I asked him about it, he said he wasn't interested in who VV's buddies were. On further questioning, he told me to shut up and that he was "generating discussion". I wasn't satisfied with that explanation - "generating discussion" is a pretty poor excuse to ask basically irrelevant questions. He responded with the implication that actually his passing interest in VV's scumbuddies

was

why he asked SK the original question. I feel he's given two poor and contradictory reasons for that question.

Having said all that, Andrius is also on my scumlist. During Day 1, up until he started coming under pressure, he did basically nothing. Nothing that would apply pressure to a player, work towards finding their alignment or lead to a lynch. When he made points he frequently weakened them, and this makes it feel like he was nervous about being called on what he was posting.

He's been very vocal and pretty convincing in his defense, but otherwise posting a lot while doing very little looks like under-the-radar scum to me.

##vote: Nobody Special

[Fishythefish]

He's been very vocal and pretty convincing in his defense, but otherwise posting a lot while doing very little looks like under-the-radar scum to me.

Are you referring to Andrius or Nobody Special here? Either way, please expound on this.

Andrius. He's used a lot of words to do very little in this game, and I think that comes from scum more than town - scum want to look like they are a contribution, but have less motivation to actually scumhunt..

[Fishythefish]

I dislike SK's play here. I think Almaster has it right; if you know a PR as town, why bother saying "You are a PR. Agree with me or die!"? I can see no town motivation for this play, particularly as SK's belief is that this has marginal impact on Andrius's alignment.

FoS: SK

@SK: is there nothing you can draw from your information about what role and what alignment Andrius has? Please think hard about this.

It should be noted that there are 10 players in this game, and 4 of them are scum. So if you think 2 of 5 PRs are scum, being a PR is a total nulltell.

[Fishythefish]

@SK: your conclusion at the end of your analysis is that Andrius is 40% likely to be scum. The baseline probability of someone being scum in this game is 40%. That means that your information says nothing about his alignment. It's nonsensical to call this a "suspicion" of Andrius.

Why did you out Andrius as a PR? I can't see what you were hoping to achieve.

[Fishythefish]

This is not a matter of opinion.

If you have 10 players in a game, and it's known that there are 4 scum and 6 town. It's known that 2 of the scum are PRs, and three of the town are PRs. Then it is an objective fact that having a PR is a nulltell. How could it possibly reflect on that player's alignment, when the chances that he is scum have not changed?

Regardless, I still want an answer to my question: what did you hope to achieve when you demanded that Andrius claim he was a powerrole?

[Fishythefish]

##vote: SK

You wanted Andrius to claim his abilities, without anything that said he was scum. There are scum motives for that, and no town motives that I can see. The mention of possible future plans is not enough for me.

[Fishythefish]

Agreed.

@mod:

could we get some prods please? You don't seem to have any prod/replace rules, but I reckon farside, Zajnet and easjo all need them.

[Fishythefish]

@SK: you are scum because of your recent shenanigans. I have no read on the rest of your play.

[Fishythefish]

Your recent shenanigans have a good scum motivation, and no good town motivation that I can see, which makes you likely scum. Scum-with-NK in your position would know Andrius had a role, and would want to know which to find out whether he was worth killing. Scum-without-NK have an even better reason - you would know Andrius had a role but, having no nightkill, would need to tell the other scumteam this. As town, on the other hand, I can't see how you expected to find out anything about Andrius's alignment, and it doesn't seem a likely play.

[Fishythefish]

Good attempt, Fishy, if a bit flawed.

If I were on the scumteam with the NK, how does blatantly rolefishing (i.e. something widely considered as a live grenade) benefit me and my partner? There's a high chance I get lynched, and a very low chance I actually get Andrius to cough up what his role is. One scum member for one power role in a game with many power roles? Unless Andius was scum, this is a suicidal move for scum. Even with that condition, this just gives town a better chance to catch the surviving scum members.

This also applies in the other scenario. While having a member of one scumteam "suggest" targets to the one that has the NK does have some merit, you again encounter the problem of sacrifice. You more than likely get yourself lynched, and

maybe

the other scumteam uses that kill to kill the power role instead of hunting for your surviving buddy. Again, how does this benefit the scum team suggesting the targets?

As for your problem with finding town motivation for my behavior, well, all I can say is that you need to think harder.

If you are scum, you clearly thought this play is the kind of thing you could justify doing as a town PR - and that explains your odd justifications to do with Andrius's alignment. Rolefishing when it looks plausibly townie is a good thing for scum to do, and I'm guessing that's what you thought here.

I've thought pretty hard about why you'd do what you did as town. I will do so again - perhaps I'm missing something obvious, but I can't see any way in which you had any information about Andrius's alignment.

I think it's extraordinary that most of the town seem unconcerned with SK's blatant outing of a PR with no reason to do so.

I think I like the cop claim idea. The price is that the ability might fall into scum hands, but for that we get a result, which is well worth it.

[Fishythefish]

Oh, and I don't like this from SK:

I agree that the cop should claim his result and then sell. *waits for people to jump on him again*

This draws a totally false link between this statement and his play early today.

[Fishythefish]

Please explain how my argument is WIFOM. The only thing in this which approaches WIFOM is you saying that you wouldn't have done something as scum because you would be suspected for it. I simply said why I think your play is likely from scumSK.

Y'know, I have said similar things as scum, when someone (town) did something that I thought was incredibly lynch-worthy, but when I tried to sell the case the rest of the town was like "meh". It's a sign of scum frustration.

Here, you've done something I think is very scummy, and the rest of the town is like "meh". My post is born of town frustration.

How is my recent point a failure to look at things from your POV? What you've said there is that people are likely to jump on you for what is pretty clearly a bad reason. Implicitly, you are linking that to the other reason people are jumping on you, and so taking a totally unjustified dig at the case against you. It's effectively strawmanning the case against you into an argument that hasn't been made.

Is there any reason you think my point is tunneling other than that it's a point against you?

[Fishythefish]

You've insinuated having information on Andrius's role; I've been making the assumption that this makes you a PR. You haven't said anything to confirm that specifically.

I'll comment on the rest of your post soon. It needs some rereading of parts of the thread which I don't have time to do right now. I'm getting a feeling that I'm wrong about some of this argument, and need to reexamine things. Expect more in the next 24 hours.

[Fishythefish]

Hypotheticals about why scumSK and townSK would have done something aren't WIFOM. Scumhunting is deciding whether actions are more likely to come from scum or town, and thinking about why scumSK would have done what you did is crucial to that. Here, I think the aspect of giving the town your extra information would make it seem easier to get away with as scum.

As for town/scum frustration, your alignment really has nothing to do with it. I could be frustrated scum or frustrated town attacking scum or town. You seem to think I'm frustrated scum, and haven't said anything that says why I'm that over frustrated town.

So you haven't noticed all the other times I've insulted people (mainly SPS) on my wagon? Incidentally, you're the only one (to my knowledge) that is actively giving me reasons to respond to. Everyone else on my wagon is like "lol scummy behavior votevote" without showing why what I'm doing is scum-oriented. Personally, I feel justified in deriding them for this stance.

Hence, you're failing to look at it from my PoV.

While I'm sure I noticed them at the time, your insults weren't in my mind when I made that post. Your post was clearly a dig at something; I read it as a rather horrible dig against my case (probably because that's what I was thinking about at the time). As a dig against the wagon against you in general, I'm much more comfortable about it.

OK. I'm happy with SK's responses to me. I still think that rolefish is scummy, and it will remain a point against SK for me unless and until it's explained, but I'm happy to move on. It is certainly true that SK's play would have been a risky one as scum.

##vote: Nobody Special

See an earlier post of mine for a couple of things in his play I've found scummy. With the lack of contribution, I think this is a fine lynch.

That's L-1. If NS has something to claim, he should do so now.

[Fishythefish]

I'm around, not got much to say. Someone needs to hammer before deadline (which I believe is in ~12 hours).

[Fishythefish]

I don't think NS's "thinking he was dead" post should be enough to derail his lynch. He might have seen StK's hammer was fake before posting, or he might just never help out the town by claiming truly in that position. It doesn't clear him at all.

Votes need ##'s to be counted.

I don't think Zajnet is particularly likely scum. His play during the first auction is much more likely to come from town, and the current reasons for voting him aren't that good.

[Fishythefish]

There is no way that SK and Andrius can both be telling the truth, which is nice. Nice easy one here; we lynch Andrius today and SK tomorrow in the very unlikely event that Andrius flips town. I agree with SK that it is better to wait until after the auction to lynch Andrius.

[Fishythefish]

Hmmm. Directing the arsonist would make the firefighter very powerful indeed; I'd only be up for directing the arsonist if we also had control over the firefighter.

[Fishythefish]

@SK: if you want to have an argument with Andrius, that's fine. There's no question of us believing him over you, so you needn't bother.

That $34 figure is what it should be, for what little it's worth.

I still think we should have the auction before nightfall. 4:2:2 is a bad position, and temporarily ruling out some nightkills looks at most marginally good. Masoniser is a protown ability, and FRC looks pretty neutral. On balance, I think having these abilities in the game is protown.

@mod:

I'm afraid that I've got a vacation coming up. I expected to have internet access, but I've just been informed this won't be the case. This means that I have no access at all from Wednesday 7th July until Sunday 16th July. After that, I can promise good access and would definitely catch up fully and quickly. If that's too long an absence, you may want to replace me, permanently or (preferably for me) temporarily. Many apologies for this.

[Fishythefish]

Actually, thinking harder about it a quicklynch just can't be bad. If we have nights and lynches in some order, it's clearly best to have as many lynches in the sequence as possible. Effectively nullifying this next night has got to be a good thing. We should discuss this, but I'm up for an immediate Andrius lynch.

[Fishythefish]

The masoniser ability can only clear or find guilty one person - the masoniser himself remains unconfirmed.

##vote: Andrius

I believe we should lynch before the deadline for these auctions; so in the next two days. It's possible my access will be patchy in that time, so I'm putting a vote down in case it's needed and I'm not around to make it.

[Fishythefish]

@SK: I don't think it's necessary to wire you money. It's pretty likely you are going to die tonight, unless we quicklynch again, which seems unlikely (I don't think there's an outstanding candidate atm).

I don't think Zaj's play here says much about his alignment. His financial manoeuvres are totally plausible from town.

Some time soon, I need to go back over this game. A lot has changed since last time I actually sat down and thought about my reads, and suddenly most of the players I had strongish reads on seem to be dead. Expect more from me in the next day or two.

[Fishythefish]

Wait. Zaj's claim is that he had $34 yesterday. He took out a loan of $102, and then got his wage of $20 to reach $156.

But that's not true. Back when I also wanted to buy pickpocket for a huge sum, I checked with the mod. Wages get paid at the start of the new day,

after

the night's actions. Making Zaj a scummy scummy scumbag.

@mod:

when are wages paid? Is it before or after night actions go through?

[Fishythefish]

No, wait, maths fail. 34 is actually 25% of 136, not 156, so the story checks out.

I'm not convinced this makes either Zaj or Zang town though. If you were scumZaj, what would you do yesterday? Work out how much money you should have as a townie, then wire the difference to Andrius. Although the fact that he doesn't seem aware of how the pickpocket works makes that less likely.

But all we know about Zang is that he's the pickpocket. That certainly doesn't make him confirmed town.

So, yeah. I think this episode does reflect very well on Zajnet, but says little or nothing about Zang's alignment.

[Fishythefish]

Have some reads, in no particular order:

Zang

Zang did a couple of things early game that I wasn’t too comfortable with, and I wasn’t overly impressed by his reaction to my case. That’s pretty minor really though.

Since then, he’s said a couple of interesting things about pickpocket (interesting since he bought it). Firstly that the pickpocket was probably pretty much a third party role, going for a money win. Now, I struggle to believe that. I think there were clear and good reasons to buy pickpocket for 250 (I bid something close to that myself), but that the money win is not one of them – you clearly aren’t going to recoup the kind of debt involved. I struggle to see why townZang the pickpocket would post this. Secondly, he said that “it seems like a scummy role” but that “scum could probably not have afforded it if they were focusing on the NK”. These again are comments fitting far better with a scum player with no intention of claiming pickpocket than with a town player who is going to claim it at some stage.

Other than that, Zang has done very little in this game. His play is very in keeping with under-the-radar scumplay.

So. I think Zang is a scum pickpocket. Given his comment on scum bidding for the NK, it’s likely he’s

not

Andrius’s partner.
@Zang: why did you make those comments about the pickpocket? Who is scum?

Zajnet

I’m thinking Zajnet’s town. His play in the first auction (bidding for NK publicly) was very protown, and his calculation of the maximum loan (albeit flawed) seems like the play of a townie. I think his play on his recent loan is as you’d expect from a town player, and that it’s in his favour that he explained having $156 rather than realising that he actually had $34 of $136 stolen (as you’d expect from scum – they’d realise SK’s maths must be wrong). All of this is in theory fakeable by clever scum getting rid of their money, but it’s enough to make me trust this read pretty strongly.

SPS

Has done literally nothing all game except tunnel on SK. I don’t even know why he thinks SK is scum. I’m thinking SPS is likely scum – while you do get lurking and irrational tunnelling from town, that doesn’t feel the case here – it’s not like SPS is shouting his case at us.
@SPS: why is SK scum? Who else is scum?

npau

This slot has done nothing all game. But in a totally null way, as it keeps replacing out. I’d like some reads from npau as soon as possible – it’s not nice having a totally unreadable slot with no interactions at this stage.

SK

I think it’s fun that he said my idea of his trying to direct the NK “had some merit”, since that’s exactly what he was doing. I’m still fairly unclear as to why he was trying to do this at all; why did you think that Andrius was a scum PR rather than a town one (before mugging him)?

Obviously, his play over the last two days rules him out of being Andrius’s buddy. However, I see no problem with him being the other breed of scum: mugging a PR to get any power they have, with a possible bonus of outing them if they are scum, is a realistic scum play.

So, I think that says little about his alignment. Generally, though, I’ve found SK’s play fairly townish (if there’s a satisfactory answer to the question above), and he’s near the bottom of my lynch list.

AGM

I’m struggling to get any kind of read on AGM.

So, I think my scumlist goes
Zang
SPS
npau=AGM
SK
Zajnet

##vote: Zang

----

I agree that the Cop should be claiming with results. If he doesn't claim soon, it seems likely that he's either dead or scum with innocent reports.

[Fishythefish]

@Zang: you say you said what you actually thought on pickpocket. Meaning you thought that it was a scummy ability, but one that scum probably didn't have enough money to buy because of the nightkill. I really don't believe you said that as a protown pickpocket. It's unnatural to call your abilities scummy, when you know you bought them for protown reasons - presumably big protown reasons, seeing as you paid 251 for it. It's also really weird to call an ability you just bought "third party", when I can't really believe you bought it thinking that. As to why you claimed, you may have thought it would get Zajnet lynched, or just that it would look protown given the course of events recently. You may simply not have remembered your earlier statements.

Any reasons for that scumlist?

@SK: can you shed any light at all on your D1 gut feeling on Andrius?

[Fishythefish]

Yeah. I just thought I'd ask again. In my experience, I can usually say

something

about why my gut says what it does.

[Fishythefish]

@Zang: my problem is this. If you bought the pickpocket, as town, here is what you said and did:
- Bought the pickpocket, for presumably protown reasons.
- Said that the pickpocket was a power that scum had more motivation to buy.
- Said that the pickpocket was basically third party out for a money win.
These don't add up for me. If you were aware of the (pretty good) reasons that made it sensible for a town player to bid $251 (or presumably a bit more) on the ability, you simply wouldn't think that it's predominantly a scummy ability. Similarly, you'd have no reason to make your comment about the money win; that surely wasn't the reason you bought the pickpocket.

You are placing a lot of emphasis on why you wouldn't have done certain things as scum. I don't think there is a problem with explaining your behaviour as scum; it can be a combination of just saying what you really thought and never intending to claim pickpocket. But my case is that your behaviour has no protown explanation. Arguing that it makes no sense as scum is relevant, but should be a side issue. If you are town, my points should have good answers; you would have done what you did for town reasons, and you should be able to explain those.

[Fishythefish]

@AGM: why do you think Zang is town?

[Fishythefish]

Here is my proposed plan. Please comment because, if accepted, we will need to move quickly.

1) "Quicklynch" a no-lynch. There's no NK, so it won't hurt anything.
2) Masonize me, I become confirmed town.
3) Everyone wires me $$$ so I can win NK.
4) Town gets the NK's and we have at least 1 confirmed townie (myself).

This plan fails if and only if the same scumteam has purchased both arsonist AND firefighter and burns it all to get rid of me, in which case town still wins because they blew $350+ dollars to kill a single person when they could have sat back and eventually nuked the entire game.

Whether or not this was a good plan, I'm afraid it won't work. Because I've already used masonise, and not on you. The results haven't come back yet, and I'm not going to claim who I used it on for now - if they are town, I'll discuss with them whether claiming is a good plan (if they are scum, obviously I'll tell you that immediately). If they are town, wiring them loads of money is certainly an option that should be considered.

[Fishythefish]

nopointactingup is scum. I tried and failed to masonise him.

I don't think I used that stupidly, and I don't much like the comments saying what an idiot I am. I think determining the alignment of the least readable player is a good use for an investigation. If he had been town, no reason not to wire him money instead of AGM.

Anyway, it's done, and now we need to decide whether we should quicklynch before the actions are sold. I'm thinking yes, just to make sure there's one less NK tonight.

[Fishythefish]

The firefighter, if he's not NPAU, should NOT counterclaim. We should just lynch the scumbag. We've got absolutely no reason to think that he's Mafia A rather than B, and letting outed Mafia B live would be a disaster.

Basically, as I see it, we've caught scum and have no information about his team. His claims are irrelevant; claiming Mafia A is clearly what either breed of scum would do to try and survive.

To be more specific, we should lynch the scumbag BEFORE the governor ability sells (for obvious reasons), but AFTER the nightkill sells. I want AGM to get it. Controllable nightkills are a Good Thing. Particularly if the scum are split 1-1; in that case scumAGM couldn't go against our orders until the very end.

[Fishythefish]

I don't need to point out your irrelevancies. Simply put, nothing you say has any bearing on what scumteam you are on:
- Promotion could be bought by a player on either scumteam.
- Firefighter could be bought by a player on either scumteam.
- Andrius's remark is basically non-evidence.
- It's hardly rocket science to claim being on the weaker scumteam to avoid a lynch.
The reason I say the Firefighter shouldn't counterclaim is if it's not you, your team probably has Arsonist and wants to kill them off. But even if we take your claims on abilities to be gospel, if you are Mafia A you need a good lynching. If you are Mafia B, lynching you is still a reasonable result for the day, particularly if we get control of the NK via AGM.

So. I know you are scum. I don't have any evidence that says which team you are on. This clearly makes you an excellent lynch.

@Zajnet: why are you voting for me?

[Fishythefish]

Yes. Put Firefighter on auction for a large sum is a good plan. No harm doing the same for Promotion, although you having that doesn't say anything much about anything.

I don't see how your lynch or otherwise has much to do with AGM getting the NK. By my maths, if we lynch you and he has a kill tonight, he still has to follow orders if he's scum (with or without a partner).

Regardless, I see nothing that says you are more likely Mafia A than B. So I see no reason at all to leave you alive.

@Zajnet: but that "if he really is Mafia A" is a HUGE "if", which you seem to be taking as a fact. You are saying I'm scummy for wanting to lynch OUTED SCUM! That should need some really really strong argument why he is a poor lynch, and there is simply no such argument in the thread.

[Fishythefish]

At this stage, NPAU could be Mafia A. He could be Mafia B. He could be Mafia B with the Arsonist ability. He could be Mafia B bidding for the NK. And there is NOTHING that tells us which he is. It's incredible that anyone is taking his word for what kind of scum he is - we know for a fact that his

only

priority is staying alive. "No reason to disbelieve him" is not a valid reason for believing someone who has no reason to tell the truth. "Having him under a leash" is a ridiculous thing to say when he could be scum who is going to kill tonight and may have the Governor ability by tomorrow.

I am also not in a position to send you money, AGM.

@SPS: right now, you need to claim all your abilities and transactions for the entire game, and send AGM all your money.

[Fishythefish]

I (had) Masonise. I also took out a loan at the same time; I don't have enough money to repay it. (There's also a complication with my total amount of money due to taking out and repaying a loan earlier in the game).

[Fishythefish]

You targetted SK Night 4? You mean, the guy with claimed investigation immunity? After not investigating anyone for 2 nights?

I don't believe a word of it.

[Fishythefish]

Er... wait. There hasn't even been a night 4. When did you investigate SK?

[Fishythefish]

I'll have to dig out the precise details of bids and amounts later today (slightly short on time now), but for now here's everything I've done - I think all the numbers can be worked out from this:
- Took out max loan day 1. Bid on a few abilities (Cop, Pickpocket, NK), but got none of them (was kinda screwed by all the action happening between 11pm and 5am).
- Repayed the loan that day.
- Did nothing until Day 3.
- Took out a loan to get to $300, and bid $300 for Masonise.
- Got Masonise.

SPS is a way better bet than NPAU for Mafia B; I'm not believing the claim that his Mafia tried to buy ALL of {NK, BA, Doc, Cop, II}. So much unnecessary protection against their own abilities + ridiculously ambitious.

I will vote for him later today; I don't want to take him to L-1 before we have everyone's full claims out in the open.

[Fishythefish]

I'll have to dig out the precise details of bids and amounts later today (slightly short on time now), but for now here's everything I've done - I think all the numbers can be worked out from this:
- Took out max loan day 1. Bid on a few abilities (Cop, Pickpocket, NK), but got none of them (was kinda screwed by all the action happening between 11pm and 5am).
- Repayed the loan that day.
- Did nothing until Day 3.
- Took out a loan to get to $300, and bid $300 for Masonise.
- Got Masonise.

SPS is a way better bet than NPAU for Mafia B; I'm not believing the claim that his Mafia tried to buy ALL of {NK, BA, Doc, Cop, II}. So much unnecessary protection against their own abilities + ridiculously ambitious.

I will vote for him later today; I don't want to take him to L-1 before we have everyone's full claims out in the open.

Filling in the gaps here;
- Beginning of day 1 $100.
- Max loan to $400 cash, $300 loan.
- Repayed that loan; $84 left.
- D2, $104
- D3, $124
Took out a loan of $176; cash $300, loan $176; bid $300 on masonise.
- D4; cash $320, loan $202
- Bought Masonize for $122. I'm left with $198 in cash, and a loan of $202. Unless the interest rate goes down to less than 10%, I'm never going to be in a position to repay that.

[Fishythefish]

NPAU: Go and get the details of your predecessor's transactions from the mod, and claim them immediately.

I will be on on and off for the next several hours. I will vote SPS if it's necessary before my last access for the evening.

[Fishythefish]

Actually, there's no need. NPAU is lying.

Zang took $155 off him N2. How much would scum with no activity have on N2? 125+30=155. To have $155 in any other way is seriously unlikely. If he took out a loan on the NK, and didn't repay it, it would have to be the bizarre figure of $147 (the fact that that's the price of the NK was irrelevant; that's not what he would have

bid

for it). If he took out a loan and repayed all he could, that's impossible.

So. Unless Zang is very clever Mafia B, or I'm being a complete idiot, NPAU is Mafia B.

[Fishythefish]

EBWOP: Zang took 155/4 off NPAU on N2. So NPAU had $155 on that night.

[Fishythefish]

OK. That doesn't gel with Zang's report of pickpocketing you N2. And that's because you never had the nightkill. And that's because you are Mafia B.

[Fishythefish]

Ah. I'd misunderstood somewhat. So his claim is that his predecessor borrowed $200, bought an ability and THEN DECIDED THE BEST AMOUNT OF MONEY TO HAVE WAS THE ONLY ONE THAT WAS KNOWN TO BE SCUM?????

I call bollocks to that. That's a totally implausible play. Why on earth would you repay $53 of your loan?

[Fishythefish]

I'm going to post this again, in case it needs clarifying. This is what you have to believe for NPAU to have had the nightkill:
- You take out a loan of $200 to buy the NK (thoroughly believable).
- You get it, paying $147 to be on $178 (thoroughly believable).
Now, you have a loan of $200, and cash of $178. How much do you repay? All you can? Too simple. None? Too simple. No, you choose

the only amount that confirms you as scum to a pickpocket

.

There's simply no logical train of thought that leads to that loan repayment.

[Fishythefish]

@Zajnet: you need to actually think about this. Put yourself in the shoes of that scum on day 1. What do you do?

The numbers add up in NPAU's claim. The fact emphatically don't.

"The natural rate of money being safest" would be a good reason, except doesn't mean anything. If you wanted to go for a "safe" sum of money, you'd clearly go for $120 - the town figure.

[Fishythefish]

So. On the one hand you have an explanation for events that involves somebody doing nothing for a day. On the other hand you have an explanation which involves somebody repaying $53 for no reason other than to look like scum.

I think it's clear which is better.

[Fishythefish]

This is not "twisting everything my way". Yesterday, I said nothing you said said much about your alignment - this is true. Now we have excellent evidence that you never had the nightkill. This means you are not Mafia A.

On the other hand, I agree that SPS doesn't look like Mafia A. And of course, you both being Mafia B is deeply unlikely. So, one of you is telling the truth. The question is, which of these is more unlikely:
- A scumteam going for Cop + II, as well as NK + BA + Doc
- A scum player deciding to repay $53 of a $200 loan, in order to get to the starting balance for scum
The first would be a weird tactical decision. The second just seems totally implausible.

[Fishythefish]

Obviously, there is no onus on you to explain his actions.

Well, I've said my piece. I'd rather an npau lynch at this point. I'll wait for some reactions from people who aren't npau.

[Fishythefish]

@SK: the 5% is actually subtley different from that. If you spend $X repaying, then only 0.95X of capital is payed off. So to pay off 300 it takes 300/0.95, which is (just less than) $316.

Thinking. Hard.

[Fishythefish]

Right. So. Firstly, *facepalm* at myself. I do think my reasons that NPAU was lying were pretty good; SK's are conclusive.

Secondly, I've done the maths to check, and SK is totally right. Neither of these players is trueclaiming; in fact, unless one of them is crazy neither ever had the NK. They are Mafia B.

@SK: I suggest you check with the mod. I did have a loan of $300 on Day 1; I did pay it off, and I did end up with $84. By my maths it should have taken you $210.5 to pay off your loan.

My maths is not off. It's not 5% on

the balance of the loan

that you have to pay extra. It's 5%

of what you pay back

that doesn't go towards the capital. I will check with the mod if this was an error; I suggest you do the same for your loan. The amount 315 pays off would only be 315*0.95=299.25; the amount 210 pays off should only be 210*0.95=199.5. It could be that he rounded this up to 200. Either way, check with the mod.

[Fishythefish]

3. You may pay off your debt at any point. However, any debt you pay off in the first day is charged a 5% service fee. So for example if you take out a $100 loan and pay off $50 of that debt, you will only have paid off $47.5 of the debt, leaving you with a debt of $52.5.

No need to check with the mod (but do anyway); this shows that $50 pays off $50*0.95=$47.5. By your method, it would take $47.5*1.05=$49.875 to pay off the same amount (A difference which gets magnified to almost $1 when going from $50 to $300).

[Fishythefish]

NPAU and SPS both probably have rather a lot of money, having bought 1 cheapish action (in NPAU's case, he also bought NS's estate, but got money out of that). TBH, it seems unimportant which we lynch first.

[Fishythefish]

Wait. In your fantasy world, I believe I'm SPS's scumbuddy, and between us we have Arsonist and are bidding on the NK? How would it not be important to me who got lynched first ?

[Fishythefish]

And as you well know, my accounts make total sense. Being real totally helps in that regard.

[Fishythefish]

You forgot the "##"s.

[Fishythefish]

@mod: Suppose a player were to take out a loan day 1, and never repay it. When would their bankruptcy proceedings begin?

[Fishythefish]

I know you are wrong.

##Vote: SPS

[Fishythefish]

That was a hammer. A deliberate hammer.

There was a real risk you went with SK's crazy strategy before the mod could answer the following:

@mod: Suppose a player takes out a loan of $300. How much do they repay if they repay it the same day?

[Fishythefish]

If SPS is Mafia A, obviously I'm going to look pretty terrible here, and I probably just threw the game. But I don't think that's the case. I think SPS is lying about how bankruptcy works, to put us off the lynch long enough to get the NK.

FMPOV, I think my hammer is justified. SK is mistaken about the loan repayment system (as the mod will confirm when he ends the day). A quicklynch on me could have happened, particularly with one or more of our CONFIRMED SCUM quickhammering.

[Fishythefish]

SK: the 5% isn't charged on 300 dollars. The 5% is charged on your

whole repayment

of

315 dollars

. So the amount you actually repay is:
0.95*315=299.25 dollars.
And you need a little less than $316 to repay the whole capital.

[Fishythefish]

That IS how the system works.

Let us postpone this argument until I am proved right about the $316.

If the mod says repaying $300 costs $315, naturally you should lynch me immediately, whatever breed of scum SPS is. Luckily, he won't.

[Fishythefish]

Um... you might want to think about that some more. It precisely support

my argument

. You know, like I told you a few posts ago.

You pay $50. How much is paid off?

$50*0.95=$47.5

In your system, how much does it cost to pay off 47.5?
$47.5*1.05=49.875.

Learn to read. Either other players posts, or the mod's pms, or the rules.

[Fishythefish]

Yes.

"Since you're paying $50, 5% of 50 is 2.5, and 50 - 2.5 = $47.5, which is the amount of debt you've actually paid off."
"Since you're paying $315, 5% of 315 is 15.75, and 315 - 15.75 = $299.25, which is the amount of debt you've actually paid off."

TAKING 5% OFF A NUMBER IS THE SAME AS MULTIPLYING BY 0.95.

I'm only having this argument because I'm fairly pissed off about this. I agree that the argument really doesn't matter.

[Fishythefish]

I'm going to bed now.

SPS is going to flip soon. If he flips Mafia A,

don't quicklynch me

. Please bear in mind that SK was claiming information from the mod which confirmed me as scum. He was doing so wrongly, in error or on purpose (probably in error), but he was claiming I was 100% scum. Zajnet has been tunnelled on me for the whole of today, and would have voted for me at the drop of a hat. Zang and SK were already voting for me. At least one SPS and NPAU would both obviously be happy to vote for me to save their own skin - both if they are scumbuddies. We probably weren't going to get mod intervention before deadline. A quickhammer was my only option in that situation.

[Fishythefish]

@SK: Please. Take a step back and think about the situation!

By that reckoning, I would be $1 in debt

if I had payed back 315

. I payed back

316

. That's the whole fucking point of this ridiculous argument!

As for the quickhammer, I've explained that. You'd just given a reason to lynch me. It was flawed, but with the information you thought you had it was totally right, and a quicklynch on me would have been a reasonable response. I had two votes, there were two scum who could hammer me, and Zajnet would clearly vote for me. Your statement that "only you should hammer" was pretty irrelevant to my thinking at that stage.

Put yourself in my shoes for a second. If I get lynched, that's basically a loss for the town. I'm quite possible about to get lynched. I'm in a position to quickhammer known scum, and probably Mafia B. What the hell else am I expected to do? Wait for my quicklynch in order to stick to your arbitrary rule that I'm not allowed to hammer anyone?

Hammering someone is not a scummy action. Preventing your own lynch to lynch known scum is not a scummy action, when there isn't time to derail the case on you by better means (ie. waiting for the mod in this situation).

[Fishythefish]

You know, Fishy, I'm not going to continue arguing with you about that because no matter what I say, you're going to disagree with it since it proves you're guilty. I'll just wait for the mod to come in and prove that your numbers are off.

And sorry, but we're lynching you tomorrow. End of story. I was pretty clear about this last night. If you forgot about it, too bad.

@SK: clearly, the mod's proving my numbers are right is necessary before this discussion is relevant.

But please. When the mod confirms I'm right, just think for a minute about the situation I was in. Quickhammers are usually bad. This one was totally necessary.

I really don't think you've said anything (other than the numbers) that proves I'm guilty in any way. What would you have done in that situation? Specifically:

- You told people you'd do the hammering of SPS.
- SPS, outed scum, is at L-1.
- I'm at L-2, with 2 outed scum not voting for me and another player who's primed to believe I'm scum, and a probably town player claiming 100% evidence that I'm scum.

What was I supposed to do? That's all I'm asking.

You saying "anyone who hammers is scum"

does not make anyone who hammers scum

. I had a valid motive for hammering, and if you really can't see that you are not thinking hard enough about the situation. I'll say it one more time, for luck - as a townie, it's sensible to substitute your lynch for a known scum lynch. Even if that means quickhammering.

[Fishythefish]

@SK: I'm not saying the mod is rounding. I was rounding, the precise figures for my money are:
D1 $100/$300 (cash/loan)
D1 $84.25/0
D2 $104.25/$0
D3 $124.25/$0
D3 $300/$175.75
D4 $320/202.115
D4 $198/202.115

[Fishythefish]

Incidentally. Just to complicate things a tiny bit futher, I've just realised that actually, my version of interest does

not

predict 315.75 (my actual repayment). It predicts more like 317.784... . And I've no idea why that is. It seems that in this calculation, you've been charged 5% on $315 - not $300 (as SK thought) or $315.75 (as I thought).

ASAP, I'd like people to ask me questions, or give their views, about my quickhammering. There's obviously a lot of RL time pressure in this game, and I should be able to show that the quickhammer was my only move (because I really think it was).

[Fishythefish]

AGM is clearly lying. Here's why: noone had a gun last night! The NK was bought

after

the night.

[Fishythefish]

@Zang, Zajnet: you need to get those votes off me. The scum are outed, and I am not one of them. Put your votes literally anywhere else - I am at L-1.

[Fishythefish]

@Zajnet: get that vote off me! At least until the mod answers your question.

[Fishythefish]

In 24 hours or so, I'll be able to give a full defense. I'll say why I'm not scum, and with any luck I'll be able to demonstrate AGM is. Please don't lynch me until then; you will lose the game.

For now, one of Zajnet and Zang needs to vote someone else. Nobody except AGM, me and npau are in any danger of a lynch - park your vote

anywhere

else.

[Fishythefish]

Yep, definitely the hammer.

I actually have plenty of money to buy Governor - I missed bidding because of RL issues. If I got lynched today (I have to say I never expected not having a chance to kill on N4 and investigating guilty to a Gunsmith), there were Happily Ever After plans that could have worked out.

It's unfortunate that there were

two

rule misunderstandings yesterday. If either the bankruptcy rule had been understood right,

or

the 5% rule had been understood right,

or

the mod had happened to be online during the critical time, the NPAU lynch would have gone through as I thought and we would have won (assuming I remembered to bid on Governor). As it was I was forced to quickhammer my scumbuddy. Which is genuinely something I would do as town; there was simply no time to prove SK was wrong.

I'm also a bit disappointed I didn't have a chance to have an argument about my alignment. Quicklynch for no reason in lylo? Bleh.

Anyway, gg. Well played town.