Mini 980 - Trader Mafia (Game Over)

[Fishythefish]

@SK: I don't think it's necessary to wire you money. It's pretty likely you are going to die tonight, unless we quicklynch again, which seems unlikely (I don't think there's an outstanding candidate atm).

I don't think Zaj's play here says much about his alignment. His financial manoeuvres are totally plausible from town.

Some time soon, I need to go back over this game. A lot has changed since last time I actually sat down and thought about my reads, and suddenly most of the players I had strongish reads on seem to be dead. Expect more from me in the next day or two.

[Steam-Powered Shovel]

Ugh. Should probably re-read.

SaintKerrigan, the difference between my behaviour and Cyberbob's behaviour in mini 934 is that my behaviour was mostly exaggerated to draw a reaction from you. And you've recently made some posts that make me think you're town, so another difference is that I'm capable of changing my mind.

And I FoSed SpyreX because I'm approximately 90% sure SpyreXscum would go after me seeing as an easy target/opposing scum, while I was only 70%ish sure SpyreXtown would go after me because he's bad at reading me.

[SaintKerrigan]

Ok, forget everything I just said about Zajnet and Zang. I forgot that you could only borrow up to 300% of your total available cash (for some reason I kept assuming it was 300% from the starting cash limit ). Taking that info into account, Zaj's reported results check out fine. There is still technically a chance that he and Zang are scum together and lying, but for now I'll leave it alone. Plus, Pickpocket was something I figured town would more likely go for than scum.

Oh and Zang: So

you're

the one that outbid me on the Pickpocket. I'd say damn you, but it turns out it was good thing I didn't blow all my money on that.

[nopointinactingup]

I confirm. Zang is telling the truth apparently. So Zaj is scum, or a liar?

[Zajnet]

I confirm. Zang is telling the truth apparently. So Zaj is scum, or a liar?

[SaintKerrigan]

So, assuming Zajnet and Zang are telling the truth, they aren't scum. I'm not scum (because I said so). From my perspective, likely scum candidates come from:

SPS
AGM
Nopoint
Fishy

Damn, that's not bad. 3/4 chance of those people being scum (again, assuming Zaj and Zang aren't lying). Something about AGM makes me feel more town on him than the others, so my current scumpicks are SPS, Fishy, and Nopoint (in sorta that order). I'll need to reread people though.

For now, no votes. Now that we don't have a confirmed scum on our hands, I'm not interested in quicklynching.

@ Fishy: Scum aren't going to NK me tonight if they can get II back by waiting a night, forcing me to sell it because of debt, and then killing me after that.

If I don't get money, I am going to have to sell the Doc in order to get the necessary money. I was hoping to avoid that.

@ NP: What do you mean?

[Zajnet]

I'm going to reread and look for Andrius' buddy. Although, admittedly, I'm really not worried about Andrius' buddy because we can be pretty sure he was the one with the NK, and that means that he doesn't have much money left to do anything. It's the other scum team that scares me. You know, the one that likely contains SaintK.

[SaintKerrigan]

I'm going to reread and look for Andrius' buddy. Although, admittedly, I'm really not worried about Andrius' buddy because we can be pretty sure he was the one with the NK, and that means that he doesn't have much money left to do anything. It's the other scum team that scares me. You know, the one that likely contains SaintK.

Why do you think I'm scum?

[Zajnet]

Call it a vibe. You keep telling us you're town, but without any reasons for us to believe that you actually are. Not to mention that the mugger went for a crap ton of money. Not more than a townie could technically have, but a crap ton.

[SaintKerrigan]

Call it a vibe. You keep telling us you're town, but without any reasons for us to believe that you actually are. Not to mention that the mugger went for a crap ton of money. Not more than a townie could technically have, but a crap ton.

What am I supposed to do, say I'm scum? Of course I'm going to say I'm town, regardless of alignment. It's up to you whether or not to believe me.

I borrowed a lot of money to get the mugger. That's why I'm in serious debt right now. That's why I've been asking for money to avoid having to sell the Doc ability to make up the difference. Again, why does this make me scum?

Do you have anything more than a "vibe" to back up your suspicion?

[Zajnet]

Call it a vibe. You keep telling us you're town, but without any reasons for us to believe that you actually are. Not to mention that the mugger went for a crap ton of money. Not more than a townie could technically have, but a crap ton.

What am I supposed to do, say I'm scum? Of course I'm going to say I'm town, regardless of alignment. It's up to you whether or not to believe me.

I borrowed a lot of money to get the mugger. That's why I'm in serious debt right now. That's why I've been asking for money to avoid having to sell the Doc ability to make up the difference. Again, why does this make me scum?

Do you have anything more than a "vibe" to back up your suspicion?

Not particularly. I'm going to do a reread and see.

Don't get so feisty, I haven't even voted you or anything. Just a hunch.

[zoraster]

Marketplace

To place a bid, PM Zoraster with the highest price you would be willing to pay.

1 Arsonist

- You have a whole bunch of highly flamable liquid, but only one match. Every night, you may douse one person in kerosene. Once during the day, you may PM the mod with the word

ignite

. This will cause every player who you have doused to go up in flames instantly, killing them. Beware the firefighter though! Doctors also protect against someone going up in flame if they protected that player the night before. Body armor does not protect.
MB: 20 CB: 300 Deadline: 1:40:00 6/29/2010

2 Firefighter

- Until the Arsonist attempts to light his match, you may submit one person per night to smother in flame-retardant material. For the rest of the game, they will not be able to be ignited, whether the arsonist doused them before or douses them after. If you smother the arsonist, his match will not work, and he will be unable to ignite anyone at all! You are a very brave firefighter, though, and you are unable to protect yourself.
MB: 10 CB: 51 Deadline: 1:40:00 6/29/2010

3 Masonizer x 1

- Once during the game during the day, you may select one other player. If that player is town OR if that player has investigation immunity, they will become your mason partner and you will be given a quicktopic to talk in. You do not have to be town to use this ability.
MB: 5 CB: 21 Deadline: 7:41:00 6/29/2010

4 Federal Reserve Chairman x 1

- Once per game, you may decide to bring about a bout of inflation. This means that EVERYONE receives $200, including you. PM the mod to start the inflation. You may also PM the mod to DESTROY this ability (thereby doing your duty as Fed Chairman). Once destroyed, this ability will not be sellable, useable or anything else.
MB: 10 CB: 10 Deadline: 8:31:00 6/29/2010

5 Nobody Special

MB: 50 CB: 100 Deadline: 1:43:00 6/29/2010

6 Andrius

MB: 50 CB: Deadline: Open

7 Night Kill x 2

- Twice per game, you may PM the mod with a target. The following night, you will attempt to kill that person.
MB: 50 CB: Deadline: Opens 6/30

8 Governor x 1

- Once per game, you may PM the mod to use the governor power. This will skip that day's lynch. You must PM the mod BEFORE night falls. Twilight is fine, but you risk night falling before you get your PM in.
MB: 30 CB: Deadline: Opens 6/30

9 Deadline Setter

- You may set the deadline for the following day by PMing the mod before night falls. You may decide two variables: 1) the minimum lynch time (from 0-3 days), 2) the maximum deadline (from 7-14 days).
MB: 1 CB: Deadline: Opens 6/30

10 Pickpocket

- This ability will allow its owner to steal 25% of the cash his or her target possesses each night.
MB: 0 CB: 2 Deadline: 0:45:00 6/30/2010

Current bids may not be up-to-date. Current Bids and Deadlines will only be kept up-to-date by edit until the next vote count is posted.

[SaintKerrigan]

Oh, by the by, don't bother bidding on Andrius. He had zilch cash when I mugged him, which means there's only $30 there for the taking.

[Fishythefish]

Wait. Zaj's claim is that he had $34 yesterday. He took out a loan of $102, and then got his wage of $20 to reach $156.

But that's not true. Back when I also wanted to buy pickpocket for a huge sum, I checked with the mod. Wages get paid at the start of the new day,

after

the night's actions. Making Zaj a scummy scummy scumbag.

@mod:

when are wages paid? Is it before or after night actions go through?

[Fishythefish]

No, wait, maths fail. 34 is actually 25% of 136, not 156, so the story checks out.

I'm not convinced this makes either Zaj or Zang town though. If you were scumZaj, what would you do yesterday? Work out how much money you should have as a townie, then wire the difference to Andrius. Although the fact that he doesn't seem aware of how the pickpocket works makes that less likely.

But all we know about Zang is that he's the pickpocket. That certainly doesn't make him confirmed town.

So, yeah. I think this episode does reflect very well on Zajnet, but says little or nothing about Zang's alignment.

[zoraster]

Wait. Zaj's claim is that he had $34 yesterday. He took out a loan of $102, and then got his wage of $20 to reach $156.

But that's not true. Back when I also wanted to buy pickpocket for a huge sum, I checked with the mod. Wages get paid at the start of the new day,

after

the night's actions. Making Zaj a scummy scummy scumbag.

@mod:

when are wages paid? Is it before or after night actions go through?

Wages are the absolute last thing to occur at night.

[Zang]

Oh and Zang: So you're the one that outbid me on the Pickpocket. I'd say damn you, but it turns out it was good thing I didn't blow all my money on that.

Ya, it wasnt really worth that much money.

I'm going to reread and look for Andrius' buddy. Although, admittedly, I'm really not worried about Andrius' buddy because we can be pretty sure he was the one with the NK, and that means that he doesn't have much money left to do anything. It's the other scum team that scares me. You know, the one that likely contains SaintK.

I disagree, Andrius' buddy is the one that has the nightkill so i think he is more dangerous to the town. And also look at the market, the other mafia probably used all their money on the arsonist so that Andrius' buddy would have more money.

Oh, by the by, don't bother bidding on Andrius. He had zilch cash when I mugged him, which means there's only $30 there for the taking.

So, bid 1 on him and you gain $29 to pay off your debt.

[SaintKerrigan]

So, bid 1 on him and you gain $29 to pay off your debt.

I already wired the rest of my money to Zorro to help pay off my debt. Besides, I'm worried about scum one-upping me just to keep me from getting a lot of money.

I disagree, Andrius' buddy is the one that has the nightkill so i think he is more dangerous to the town. And also look at the market, the other mafia probably used all their money on the arsonist so that Andrius' buddy would have more money.

The NK was only 2-shot. Depending on whether the buddy bought anything else, he may or may not be in debt right now. I'll need to wait and see how the current lineup sells before making more decisions. (Meaning: something just occurred to me and I need to see the final bidding to see if I'm right.)

Also, since the Cop has already been used up, I suggest the person who had it should come out and claim results.

Although Fishy's latest two posts bring up something interesting: if Zaj is Andrius' buddy and wired money to Andrius to appear townie, then Andrius would have more than $30 on him. Maybe someone should bid $30 on Andrius and check it out.

[SaintKerrigan]

EBWOP

a lot of money.

Relatively speaking.

[Fishythefish]

Have some reads, in no particular order:

Zang

Zang did a couple of things early game that I wasn’t too comfortable with, and I wasn’t overly impressed by his reaction to my case. That’s pretty minor really though.

Since then, he’s said a couple of interesting things about pickpocket (interesting since he bought it). Firstly that the pickpocket was probably pretty much a third party role, going for a money win. Now, I struggle to believe that. I think there were clear and good reasons to buy pickpocket for 250 (I bid something close to that myself), but that the money win is not one of them – you clearly aren’t going to recoup the kind of debt involved. I struggle to see why townZang the pickpocket would post this. Secondly, he said that “it seems like a scummy role” but that “scum could probably not have afforded it if they were focusing on the NK”. These again are comments fitting far better with a scum player with no intention of claiming pickpocket than with a town player who is going to claim it at some stage.

Other than that, Zang has done very little in this game. His play is very in keeping with under-the-radar scumplay.

So. I think Zang is a scum pickpocket. Given his comment on scum bidding for the NK, it’s likely he’s

not

Andrius’s partner.
@Zang: why did you make those comments about the pickpocket? Who is scum?

Zajnet

I’m thinking Zajnet’s town. His play in the first auction (bidding for NK publicly) was very protown, and his calculation of the maximum loan (albeit flawed) seems like the play of a townie. I think his play on his recent loan is as you’d expect from a town player, and that it’s in his favour that he explained having $156 rather than realising that he actually had $34 of $136 stolen (as you’d expect from scum – they’d realise SK’s maths must be wrong). All of this is in theory fakeable by clever scum getting rid of their money, but it’s enough to make me trust this read pretty strongly.

SPS

Has done literally nothing all game except tunnel on SK. I don’t even know why he thinks SK is scum. I’m thinking SPS is likely scum – while you do get lurking and irrational tunnelling from town, that doesn’t feel the case here – it’s not like SPS is shouting his case at us.
@SPS: why is SK scum? Who else is scum?

npau

This slot has done nothing all game. But in a totally null way, as it keeps replacing out. I’d like some reads from npau as soon as possible – it’s not nice having a totally unreadable slot with no interactions at this stage.

SK

I think it’s fun that he said my idea of his trying to direct the NK “had some merit”, since that’s exactly what he was doing. I’m still fairly unclear as to why he was trying to do this at all; why did you think that Andrius was a scum PR rather than a town one (before mugging him)?

Obviously, his play over the last two days rules him out of being Andrius’s buddy. However, I see no problem with him being the other breed of scum: mugging a PR to get any power they have, with a possible bonus of outing them if they are scum, is a realistic scum play.

So, I think that says little about his alignment. Generally, though, I’ve found SK’s play fairly townish (if there’s a satisfactory answer to the question above), and he’s near the bottom of my lynch list.

AGM

I’m struggling to get any kind of read on AGM.

So, I think my scumlist goes
Zang
SPS
npau=AGM
SK
Zajnet

##vote: Zang

----

I agree that the Cop should be claiming with results. If he doesn't claim soon, it seems likely that he's either dead or scum with innocent reports.

[SaintKerrigan]

Why did you think that Andrius was a scum PR rather than a town one (before mugging him)?

His posts didn't read town to me, D1 in particular. I can't really explain exactly how or why, but I did not get a town feeling from those posts.

[Zang]

Since then, he’s said a couple of interesting things about pickpocket (interesting since he bought it). Firstly that the pickpocket was probably pretty much a third party role, going for a money win. Now, I struggle to believe that. I think there were clear and good reasons to buy pickpocket for 250 (I bid something close to that myself), but that the money win is not one of them – you clearly aren’t going to recoup the kind of debt involved. I struggle to see why townZang the pickpocket would post this. Secondly, he said that “it seems like a scummy role” but that “scum could probably not have afforded it if they were focusing on the NK”. These again are comments fitting far better with a scum player with no intention of claiming pickpocket than with a town player who is going to claim it at some stage.

well then why would I claim pickpocket when I was asked?

Other than that, Zang has done very little in this game. His play is very in keeping with under-the-radar scumplay.

That's pretty much how all my play is regardless of my alignment.

So. I think Zang is a scum pickpocket. Given his comment on scum bidding for the NK, it’s likely he’s not Andrius’s partner.
@Zang: why did you make those comments about the pickpocket?

What was I supposed to say? If I said it was scummy, when I claimed you would call me scum and lynch me. If I said it was town, when I claimed you would have said that I said that to make me look town and lynch me. If I didn't say anything you would accuse me of lurking and (probably) lynch me. So I said what I actually thought.

Who is scum?

SPS, nopoint and either fishy or AGM

[Fishythefish]

@Zang: you say you said what you actually thought on pickpocket. Meaning you thought that it was a scummy ability, but one that scum probably didn't have enough money to buy because of the nightkill. I really don't believe you said that as a protown pickpocket. It's unnatural to call your abilities scummy, when you know you bought them for protown reasons - presumably big protown reasons, seeing as you paid 251 for it. It's also really weird to call an ability you just bought "third party", when I can't really believe you bought it thinking that. As to why you claimed, you may have thought it would get Zajnet lynched, or just that it would look protown given the course of events recently. You may simply not have remembered your earlier statements.

Any reasons for that scumlist?

@SK: can you shed any light at all on your D1 gut feeling on Andrius?

[SaintKerrigan]

@SK: can you shed any light at all on your D1 gut feeling on Andrius?

I can't really explain exactly how or why

, but I did not get a town feeling from those posts.

[Fishythefish]

Yeah. I just thought I'd ask again. In my experience, I can usually say

something

about why my gut says what it does.