Mini 980 - Trader Mafia (Game Over)
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SaintKerrigan Brings Out The Flavour
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Andrius The Baker
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33%? If there are 2 scum on each of the scumteams, then there's 4 scum in 10 players.SaintKerrigan wrote: ...
Also, you are not getting it. 40% scum isonlytaking role stuff into account, and nothing else. There isdefinitelya 33% chance of Andrius being scum no matter what because he has a role. Other evidence against him is additive to the percentage of likelihood. (It's not mathematics. It's not gut. It's gutematics. Get used to it.)
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So everyone has 10%. Why am I 33% likely?"This is the true face of a man who plays paladin."-
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Fishythefish Mafia Scum
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I dislike SK's play here. I think Almaster has it right; if you know a PR as town, why bother saying "You are a PR. Agree with me or die!"? I can see no town motivation for this play, particularly as SK's belief is that this has marginal impact on Andrius's alignment.
FoS: SK
@SK: is there nothing you can draw from your information about what role and what alignment Andrius has? Please think hard about this.
It should be noted that there are 10 players in this game, and 4 of them are scum. So if you think 2 of 5 PRs are scum, being a PR is a total nulltell.-
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zoraster He/HimDisorganized CrimeHe/Him
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Steam-Powered Shovel Goon
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No, you weren't. How can you belittle my "case" when you're still pretending not getting it?SaintKerrigan wrote:I was belittling your "case".
In other words, you're pulling numbers out of your ass because if you had done it properly, you wouldn't have obtained the conclusion you wanted. My methodology is provably correct.SaintKerrigan wrote:Also, you are not getting it. 40% scum is only taking role stuff into account, and nothing else. There is definitely a 33% chance of Andrius being scum no matter what because he has a role. Other evidence against him is additive to the percentage of likelihood. (It's not mathematics. It's not gut. It's gutematics. Get used to it.)
Yeah, Zang is clearly a better vote.SaintKerrigan wrote:Also, I'm pursuing other targets by using my vote. I have plenty of reason to unvote. Kiss my ass.The great advantage of the tiger in unarmed combat is that he eats not only the raspberry-laden foe but also the raspberries.-
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SaintKerrigan Brings Out The Flavour
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If I have other things planned in my mind, that's for me to know and to enact.
So people have absolutely know idea what I'm getting at (or they claim they don't). Let's try this again, in the Dummies! version.
- Andrius has confirmed himself to be a power role
- Before the last purchase, there were six living power roles (we will be working with this from hereon down)
- Because of monetary factors, it's safe to assume that there's one role per person
- Two of the six power roles are definitely scum: Nightkill and Inv. Immunity
- Since two of the six power roles are definitely scum, we get a 2/6 (33%) chance (excluding all other factors) that Andrius is scum
- In my opinion, at least one of the other power roles is also in scum hands
- I also don't think that Andrius was the one to purchase Inv. Immunity
- This completely removes one of the power role options from consideration
- Of the remaining five, one is definitely scum, and I believe that at least one of the other power roles is also scum
- This now makes a 2/5 (40%) chance that Andrius is scum
- All of this is just based on PR speculation. This does not include any other suspicions I might have of Andrius.
Meanwhile, I'm going after other people who are sitting quietly on the sidelines and aren't doing Jack (pun fully intended) while this great debate rages on. This means you, Zang/NS.
Someone let me know when SPS' "case" stops being attempts to provoke a bitchslapping contest, please. Thanks.
Fishy, equating like percentages from different statistics does not make things null in any way whatsoever.ALMOST ALWAYS BUSY 9-6 CST WEEKDAYS-
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Zang Mafia Scum
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Well, at least I'm trying to contribute instead of just posting mindless comments like "Bidding is so interesting" and "The font size is huge".SK wrote:But right now you're MY special lurker. See earlier accusations of not saying much other than going after Jack, etc.
Which reminds me
##Vote: Nobody Special(\_/)
(._.) HelpZangThe bunny In T.W.D
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Fishythefish Mafia Scum
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@SK: your conclusion at the end of your analysis is that Andrius is 40% likely to be scum. The baseline probability of someone being scum in this game is 40%. That means that your information says nothing about his alignment. It's nonsensical to call this a "suspicion" of Andrius.
Why did you out Andrius as a PR? I can't see what you were hoping to achieve.-
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SaintKerrigan Brings Out The Flavour
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Fishythefish Mafia Scum
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This is not a matter of opinion.
If you have 10 players in a game, and it's known that there are 4 scum and 6 town. It's known that 2 of the scum are PRs, and three of the town are PRs. Then it is an objective fact that having a PR is a nulltell. How could it possibly reflect on that player's alignment, when the chances that he is scum have not changed?
Regardless, I still want an answer to my question: what did you hope to achieve when you demanded that Andrius claim he was a powerrole?-
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SaintKerrigan Brings Out The Flavour
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Fishythefish Mafia Scum
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SaintKerrigan Brings Out The Flavour
- Brings Out The Flavour
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Andrius The Baker
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+Fishythefish wrote:##vote: SK
You wanted Andrius to claim his abilities, without anything that said he was scum. There are scum motives for that, and no town motives that I can see. The mention of possible future plans is not enough for me.
=SaintKerrigan wrote:*claps gleefully and grabs more popcorn*
I don't understand why Kerrigan's gleeful."This is the true face of a man who plays paladin."-
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SaintKerrigan Brings Out The Flavour
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- Location: Drowning in printing ink.
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Andrius The Baker
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Fishythefish Mafia Scum
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Steam-Powered Shovel Goon
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Zajnet Mafia Scum
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My god the math is all screwed up by everyone except maybe Fishy. Everyone has 40% chance of being scum because of the 4 in 10 thing. Not 10%. Not 33%.Andrius wrote:
33%? If there are 2 scum on each of the scumteams, then there's 4 scum in 10 players.SaintKerrigan wrote: ...
Also, you are not getting it. 40% scum isonlytaking role stuff into account, and nothing else. There isdefinitelya 33% chance of Andrius being scum no matter what because he has a role. Other evidence against him is additive to the percentage of likelihood. (It's not mathematics. It's not gut. It's gutematics. Get used to it.)
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So everyone has 10%. Why am I 33% likely?My GTKAS
"okay who the fuck didnt kill me." - nintendoaddict1-
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Andrius The Baker
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I fail so hard there.Zajnet wrote:
My god the math is all screwed up by everyone except maybe Fishy. Everyone has 40% chance of being scum because of the 4 in 10 thing. Not 10%. Not 33%.Andrius wrote:
33%? If there are 2 scum on each of the scumteams, then there's 4 scum in 10 players.SaintKerrigan wrote: ...
Also, you are not getting it. 40% scum isonlytaking role stuff into account, and nothing else. There isdefinitelya 33% chance of Andrius being scum no matter what because he has a role. Other evidence against him is additive to the percentage of likelihood. (It's not mathematics. It's not gut. It's gutematics. Get used to it.)
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So everyone has 10%. Why am I 33% likely?"This is the true face of a man who plays paladin."-
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zoraster He/HimDisorganized CrimeHe/Him
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AlmasterGM Mafia Scum
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Back.
Regardless of how the math works out, what SK did was still scummy because he didn't draw any implications from it. If he was like, "claim now" and then used that claim to draw a conclusion, then it'd be fine, but nothing like that happened. For all effective purposes, we are still at square one with Andrius, except now the scum know he bought a PR.-
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SaintKerrigan Brings Out The Flavour
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AGM assumes too much, methinks. Answer me this: why are the things I've done regarding Andrius scummy?
For the rest of you, aside from my recent shenanigans, why am I scum? (Steam is not free to answer this question because I already know he is a shut-down hypertunneling townie. Kinda reminds me of Cyberbob in Mini 934, eh Steam?)ALMOST ALWAYS BUSY 9-6 CST WEEKDAYS-
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Fishythefish Mafia Scum
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Steam-Powered Shovel Goon
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I totally am free to answer the question. You might not want me to, but you can't impugn my right of free speech.SaintKerrigan wrote:Steam is not free to answer this question because I already know he is a shut-down hypertunneling townie. Kinda reminds me of Cyberbob in Mini 934, eh Steam?The great advantage of the tiger in unarmed combat is that he eats not only the raspberry-laden foe but also the raspberries.
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