Mini 980 - Trader Mafia (Game Over)

[Fishythefish]

Actually, thinking harder about it a quicklynch just can't be bad. If we have nights and lynches in some order, it's clearly best to have as many lynches in the sequence as possible. Effectively nullifying this next night has got to be a good thing. We should discuss this, but I'm up for an immediate Andrius lynch.

[SaintKerrigan]

I misread the rules and thought the 5% reduction was everytime you payed off debt, so I thought $46 was the most I could borrow without going into bankruptcy.

I can show the math if you want it.

That wouldn't be a bad idea.

[Zajnet]

$46 * 1.1 = $50.6
$50.6 - $19 = $31.6
$31.6 * 1.1 = $34.76
$34.76 - 19 = 15.76
$15.76 * 1.1 = $17.336
$17.34 - $19 = $0

I wasn't sure exactly how he was going to round, so I wanted the $1.50 buffer.
Starting with $47 ends up with $18.67 that needs to get payed off on the third day, and I didn't want to be that close in case he rounded weirdly.

[SaintKerrigan]

Hmm...

In any event, this is how I calculated the maximum safe borrowing amount.

1.1X - Y = A
1.1A - Y = B
1.1B - Y = C

X = Debt 1 (Initial Debt)
A = Debt 2 (Day 1 Debt)
B = Debt 3 (Day 2 Debt)
C = Final Debt (Day 3 Debt)
Y = Income

C = 0
Y = 20

1.1B - Y = C
1.1B - 20 = 0
1.1B = 20
B = 200/11 = ~18.18

1.1A - Y = B
1.1A - 20 = 200/11
1.1A = 420/11
A = 4200/121 ~ 34.71

1.1X - Y = A
1.1X - 20 = 4200/121
1.1X = 6620/121
X = 66200/1331 = ~49.74

All of that is assuming you spend exactly this much money on the ability and don't pay anything back on the same day.

I just realized I could've replaced A and B with the equations and made a single large equation.

1.1X - Y = A
1.1A - Y = B
1.1B - Y = C

1.1(1.1X - Y) - Y = B
1.21X - 1.1Y -Y = B
1.21X - 2.1Y = B

1.1(1.21X - 2.1Y) - Y = C
1.331X - 2.31Y - Y = C
1.331X - 3.31Y = C

1.331X - 3.31(20) = 0
1.331X - 66.2 = 0
1.331X = 66.2
X = 66.2/1.331 = 49.74

(Yes, this has no relevance to scumhunting, but I found it rather fun!)

[zoraster]

Day 2 Vote Count

Zang ( 0 )
SaintKerrigan ( 1 ) Andrius,
Zajnet ( 0 )
nopointinactingup ( 0 )
Andrius ( 0 )
Fishythefish ( 0 )
Steam-Powered Shovel ( 0 )
AlmasterGM ( 0 )
Not Voting ( 7 ) nopointinactingup Zang, SaintKerrigan, Fishythefish, AlmasterGM, Zajnet, Steam-Powered Shovel,
Total Votes ( 8 )
Deadline: July 9th at 11:00 EDT
With 8 total votes, 5 needed to lynch.

Marketplace

To place a bid, PM Zoraster with the highest price you would be willing to pay.

1 Arsonist

- You have a whole bunch of highly flamable liquid, but only one match. Every night, you may douse one person in kerosene. Once during the day, you may PM the mod with the word

ignite

. This will cause every player who you have doused to go up in flames instantly, killing them. Beware the firefighter though! Doctors also protect against someone going up in flame if they protected that player the night before. Body armor does not protect.
MB: 20 CB: 201 Deadline: 1:40:00 6/29/2010

2 Firefighter

- Until the Arsonist attempts to light his match, you may submit one person per night to smother in flame-retardant material. For the rest of the game, they will not be able to be ignited, whether the arsonist doused them before or douses them after. If you smother the arsonist, his match will not work, and he will be unable to ignite anyone at all! You are a very brave firefighter, though, and you are unable to protect yourself.
MB: 10 CB: 10 Deadline: 1:40:00 6/29/2010

3 Masonizer x 1

- Once during the game during the day, you may select one other player. If that player is town OR if that player has investigation immunity, they will become your mason partner and you will be given a quicktopic to talk in. You do not have to be town to use this ability.
MB: 5 CB: 21 Deadline: 7:41:00 6/29/2010

4 Federal Reserve Chairman x 1

- Once per game, you may decide to bring about a bout of inflation. This means that EVERYONE receives $200, including you. PM the mod to start the inflation. You may also PM the mod to DESTROY this ability (thereby doing your duty as Fed Chairman). Once destroyed, this ability will not be sellable, useable or anything else.
MB: 10 CB: 10 Deadline: 8:31:00 6/29/2010

5 Nobody Special

MB: 50 CB: 100 Deadline: 1:43:00 6/29/2010

Current bids may not be up-to-date. Current Bids and Deadlines will only be kept up-to-date by edit until the next vote count is posted.

[AlmasterGM]

Dear SK,

All the hate from yesterday is forgiven. I love you now.

Sincerely,

AlmasterGM

P.S. To everyone else: we NEED to put the Masonizer ability in town hands. Since we know SK has investigation immunity, we can't mess up with it and masonize secret scum by accident. The Masonizer will claim that they have purchased it and get some Doc protection. They can then confirm their target in the morning and we will have +2 townies. I have some money I am willing to wire away (or people can wire to me) so we can get this.

[Fishythefish]

The masoniser ability can only clear or find guilty one person - the masoniser himself remains unconfirmed.

##vote: Andrius

I believe we should lynch before the deadline for these auctions; so in the next two days. It's possible my access will be patchy in that time, so I'm putting a vote down in case it's needed and I'm not around to make it.

[SaintKerrigan]

##Vote: Andrius

Operation: Speedlynch is underway.

@ Everyone: Let's continue discussion about PRs and such, but go ahead and vote for Andrius ASAP. This way we get a free scumlynch without fear of scum reprisal.

[nopointinactingup]

Cool, but if he's not scum then you're next SK. I hope we find scum here though, for our numbers are declining.

Vote: Andrius

[Zang]

I'm back from my V/LA and I'll post something soon.

[AlmasterGM]

##Vote: Andrius

[Zajnet]

All right, but if Andrius flips town, we're coming for you SaintK.

##VOTE: Andrius

[Zang]

##Vote: Andrius

and SK- I'm the pickpocket

[zoraster]

Day 3 Vote Count

Zang ( 0 )
SaintKerrigan ( 1 ) Andrius,
Zajnet ( 0 )
nopointinactingup ( 0 )
Andrius ( 5 ) Fishythefish, SaintKerrigan, AlmasterGM, Zajnet, Zang,
Fishythefish ( 0 )
Steam-Powered Shovel ( 0 )
AlmasterGM ( 0 )
Not Voting ( 2 ) nopointinactingup Steam-Powered Shovel,
Total Votes ( 8 )
Deadline: July 9th at 11:00 EDT
With 8 total votes, 5 needed to lynch.

Andrius, a member of Mafia A, was lynched

Night:
Nothing happened this night.

Marketplace

To place a bid, PM Zoraster with the highest price you would be willing to pay.

1 Arsonist

- You have a whole bunch of highly flamable liquid, but only one match. Every night, you may douse one person in kerosene. Once during the day, you may PM the mod with the word

ignite

. This will cause every player who you have doused to go up in flames instantly, killing them. Beware the firefighter though! Doctors also protect against someone going up in flame if they protected that player the night before. Body armor does not protect.
MB: 20 CB: 300 Deadline: 1:40:00 6/29/2010

2 Firefighter

- Until the Arsonist attempts to light his match, you may submit one person per night to smother in flame-retardant material. For the rest of the game, they will not be able to be ignited, whether the arsonist doused them before or douses them after. If you smother the arsonist, his match will not work, and he will be unable to ignite anyone at all! You are a very brave firefighter, though, and you are unable to protect yourself.
MB: 10 CB: 10 Deadline: 1:40:00 6/29/2010

3 Masonizer x 1

- Once during the game during the day, you may select one other player. If that player is town OR if that player has investigation immunity, they will become your mason partner and you will be given a quicktopic to talk in. You do not have to be town to use this ability.
MB: 5 CB: 21 Deadline: 7:41:00 6/29/2010

4 Federal Reserve Chairman x 1

- Once per game, you may decide to bring about a bout of inflation. This means that EVERYONE receives $200, including you. PM the mod to start the inflation. You may also PM the mod to DESTROY this ability (thereby doing your duty as Fed Chairman). Once destroyed, this ability will not be sellable, useable or anything else.
MB: 10 CB: 10 Deadline: 8:31:00 6/29/2010

5 Nobody Special

MB: 50 CB: 100 Deadline: 1:43:00 6/29/2010

6 Andrius

MB: 50 CB: Deadline: Open

7 Night Kill x 2

- Twice per game, you may PM the mod with a target. The following night, you will attempt to kill that person.
MB: 50 CB: Deadline: Opens 6/30

8 Governor x 1

- Once per game, you may PM the mod to use the governor power. This will skip that day's lynch. You must PM the mod BEFORE night falls. Twilight is fine, but you risk night falling before you get your PM in.
MB: 30 CB: Deadline: Opens 6/30

9 Deadline Setter

- You may set the deadline for the following day by PMing the mod before night falls. You may decide two variables: 1) the minimum lynch time (from 0-3 days), 2) the maximum deadline (from 7-14 days). Opens 6/30
MB: 1 CB: Deadline:

Current bids may not be up-to-date. Current Bids and Deadlines will only be kept up-to-date by edit until the next vote count is posted.

The deadline remains July 9th at 11:00 EDT

[zoraster]

Topic is reopened. Please note that if your asset PM has the word "Debt Due" at the end of it, your debt is due by the end of today or you will enter bankruptcy tonight.

[Zang]

I got $34 from zajnet.

[Andrius]

I got quicklynched?!?

BAH. Well, it was nice playing with you all.

GO MAFIA A!

[zoraster]

Pickpocket is being sold by a player. That ability is open for immediate bidding

Marketplace

To place a bid, PM Zoraster with the highest price you would be willing to pay.

1 Arsonist

- You have a whole bunch of highly flamable liquid, but only one match. Every night, you may douse one person in kerosene. Once during the day, you may PM the mod with the word

ignite

. This will cause every player who you have doused to go up in flames instantly, killing them. Beware the firefighter though! Doctors also protect against someone going up in flame if they protected that player the night before. Body armor does not protect.
MB: 20 CB: 300 Deadline: 1:40:00 6/29/2010

2 Firefighter

- Until the Arsonist attempts to light his match, you may submit one person per night to smother in flame-retardant material. For the rest of the game, they will not be able to be ignited, whether the arsonist doused them before or douses them after. If you smother the arsonist, his match will not work, and he will be unable to ignite anyone at all! You are a very brave firefighter, though, and you are unable to protect yourself.
MB: 10 CB: 10 Deadline: 1:40:00 6/29/2010

3 Masonizer x 1

- Once during the game during the day, you may select one other player. If that player is town OR if that player has investigation immunity, they will become your mason partner and you will be given a quicktopic to talk in. You do not have to be town to use this ability.
MB: 5 CB: 21 Deadline: 7:41:00 6/29/2010

4 Federal Reserve Chairman x 1

- Once per game, you may decide to bring about a bout of inflation. This means that EVERYONE receives $200, including you. PM the mod to start the inflation. You may also PM the mod to DESTROY this ability (thereby doing your duty as Fed Chairman). Once destroyed, this ability will not be sellable, useable or anything else.
MB: 10 CB: 10 Deadline: 8:31:00 6/29/2010

5 Nobody Special

MB: 50 CB: 100 Deadline: 1:43:00 6/29/2010

6 Andrius

MB: 50 CB: Deadline: Open

7 Night Kill x 2

- Twice per game, you may PM the mod with a target. The following night, you will attempt to kill that person.
MB: 50 CB: Deadline: Opens 6/30

8 Governor x 1

- Once per game, you may PM the mod to use the governor power. This will skip that day's lynch. You must PM the mod BEFORE night falls. Twilight is fine, but you risk night falling before you get your PM in.
MB: 30 CB: Deadline: Opens 6/30

9 Deadline Setter

- You may set the deadline for the following day by PMing the mod before night falls. You may decide two variables: 1) the minimum lynch time (from 0-3 days), 2) the maximum deadline (from 7-14 days).
MB: 1 CB: Deadline: Opens 6/30

10 Pickpocket

- This ability will allow its owner to steal 25% of the cash his or her target possesses each night.
MB: 0 CB: Deadline: Open

Current bids may not be up-to-date. Current Bids and Deadlines will only be kept up-to-date by edit until the next vote count is posted.

Pickpocket is being sold by a player. That ability is open for immediate bidding

[SaintKerrigan]

I got $34 from zajnet.

All right, we've got a problem. Zang and Zaj can't both be town. Three scenarios present themselves:

1. Zang is the Pickpocket, he stole from Zaj last night and got $34. Since Pickpocket only steals 25% of someone's cash, that means Zaj actually had $156 dollars. This amount requires Zaj to borrow more money than he can safely pay off in three days, which violates the logic he's been establishing. Therefore, Zaj is scum.

2. Zang is lying about having the Pickpocket and trying to incriminate Zaj as described above. Therefore, Zang is scum.

3. Scum Zang claims to have the Pickpocket (whether he does or not is irrelevant), and claims he stole $34 dollars from his partner, Zaj, in order to try and confirm him as town. However, he fails to account for the 25% factor as described in Scenario 1. Therefore, both Zang and Zaj are scum.

Thus, we can safely conclude that at least one of Zang and Zajnet, if not both of them, are scum. Zajnet seems to be the proper first lynch, but before we start voting, the person who is selling the Pickpocket should claim,

especially

if it isn't Zang. Zang, if it's you, why did you sell the Pickpocket? (I think I know the answer but say it anyway.) Also, claim your previous Pickpocketing targets.

Also, if the cop is still alive and has at least one innocent on people who are still alive, claiming that now might be a good idea.

[SaintKerrigan]

Also, I just discovered a problem. I still haven't paid off all my debt, and if it's not paid off by tonight, I have to sell all my abilities to help pay off the debt. This includes Investigation Immunity. This gives the scum an opportunity to get it right back. I'd prefer this didn't happen.

So if anyone wants to help me out by wiring me some money to pay off the debt (I need around $160) to keep II out of scum hands, I'd really appreciate it. Multiple people could wire me money rather than one person doing it (and that's actually a better idea).

[SaintKerrigan]

EBWOP: I've decided against selling the Doc for the moment because we're going to get another protective role soon, and I can draw the scum NK by having Doc, thus forcing them to get rid of II. Of course if I don't pay my debt off soon I won't be able to keep II out of scum hands.

[Zajnet]

I had $34, then I borrowed $102. Then I got payed $20, giving me $156 exactly.

[Zang]

All right, we've got a problem. Zang and Zaj can't both be town.

why not?

Thus, we can safely conclude that at least one of Zang and Zajnet, if not both of them, are scum. Zajnet seems to be the proper first lynch, but before we start voting, the person who is selling the Pickpocket should claim, especially if it isn't Zang. Zang, if it's you, why did you sell the Pickpocket? (I think I know the answer but say it anyway.) Also, claim your previous Pickpocketing targets.

I sold it because i'm in debt.

Day 1 I pick pocketed flashstorm (now AlmasterGM)
Day 2 I pick pocketed easjo (now Nopointinactingup)

[SaintKerrigan]

I had $34, then I borrowed $102. Then I got payed $20, giving me $156 exactly.

The issue at hand is that you borrowed more than $49 dollars, the safe amount a townie can borrow and pay back without going broke. This is in gross violation of the behavior you've claimed to have exhibited thus far. Thus, I think you're scum.

This response eliminates Scenario 2 in my other post. This means Zajnet is confirmed scum. Hold off on the votes for now, though. I want a little discussion first.

All right, we've got a problem. Zang and Zaj can't both be town.

why not?

For the reasons I described in that same post you quoted. Go back and read them and try again.

I sold it because i'm in debt.

Ok, I thought so.

AGM and Nopoint are free to confirm being pickpocketed if they so wish, but it is not really necessary. I'm pretty sure now that Zang was telling the truth about having the Pickpocket. (This doesn't mean if someone can counterclaim they shouldn't.)

[Zajnet]

This game will likely be over in three days, I am no longer worried about bankruptcy