Mini 980 - Trader Mafia (Game Over)

[nopointinactingup]

I do Read my statement again please.

[Fishythefish]

OK. That doesn't gel with Zang's report of pickpocketing you N2. And that's because you never had the nightkill. And that's because you are Mafia B.

[nopointinactingup]

Why? The Mod says my predecessor took out a loan of $200 on Day 1 and repaid $53 of his debt when he got NK.
I see a very possible connection between Fishy and SFS now

[Zajnet]

Actually, there's no need. NPAU is lying.

Zang took $155 off him N2. How much would scum with no activity have on N2? 125+30=155. To have $155 in any other way is seriously unlikely. If he took out a loan on the NK, and didn't repay it, it would have to be the bizarre figure of $147 (the fact that that's the price of the NK was irrelevant; that's not what he would have

bid

for it). If he took out a loan and repayed all he could, that's impossible.

The way he said it was that he had $125 to start with, borrowed $200 ($325), won the NK for $147 ($178), then repayed $53 ($125), then got payed D2 ($155), then got pickpocketed N2 for $155/4. It all makes sense.

[Zajnet]

I see a very possible connection between Fishy and SFS now

EBWODP: Yeah I'm seeing that too...

[Fishythefish]

Ah. I'd misunderstood somewhat. So his claim is that his predecessor borrowed $200, bought an ability and THEN DECIDED THE BEST AMOUNT OF MONEY TO HAVE WAS THE ONLY ONE THAT WAS KNOWN TO BE SCUM?????

I call bollocks to that. That's a totally implausible play. Why on earth would you repay $53 of your loan?

[Fishythefish]

I'm going to post this again, in case it needs clarifying. This is what you have to believe for NPAU to have had the nightkill:
- You take out a loan of $200 to buy the NK (thoroughly believable).
- You get it, paying $147 to be on $178 (thoroughly believable).
Now, you have a loan of $200, and cash of $178. How much do you repay? All you can? Too simple. None? Too simple. No, you choose

the only amount that confirms you as scum to a pickpocket

.

There's simply no logical train of thought that leads to that loan repayment.

[nopointinactingup]

Well, I don't know, I didn't do it , but it's possible he aimed to buy NK within $200 and when he got it for $147, paid back the excess in order to preserve his money for later bidding. Imagine yourself paying back a debt. You wouldn't wanna pay too much cuz you might need the money soon. You wouldn't want to retain the whole debt because of its increasing rate of interest. So you tend to feel having the natural rate of money as being the safest ( He obviously didn't consider the possibility of being pickpocket ).

[Fishythefish]

@Zajnet: you need to actually think about this. Put yourself in the shoes of that scum on day 1. What do you do?

The numbers add up in NPAU's claim. The fact emphatically don't.

"The natural rate of money being safest" would be a good reason, except doesn't mean anything. If you wanted to go for a "safe" sum of money, you'd clearly go for $120 - the town figure.

[Fishythefish]

So. On the one hand you have an explanation for events that involves somebody doing nothing for a day. On the other hand you have an explanation which involves somebody repaying $53 for no reason other than to look like scum.

I think it's clear which is better.

[nopointinactingup]

Like I said. My predecessor obviously never considered the possibility of pickpocket =.=
It's just what it is. Why do you have to twist everything to get your way that I'm not Mafia A Fishy? If I'm not Mafia A then who is? SFS is obviously not Mafia A as his Cop vs Andrius II seems an impossible combination. Or do you want to claim Mafia A Fish. I never knew my alignment was so popular ..

[Fishythefish]

This is not "twisting everything my way". Yesterday, I said nothing you said said much about your alignment - this is true. Now we have excellent evidence that you never had the nightkill. This means you are not Mafia A.

On the other hand, I agree that SPS doesn't look like Mafia A. And of course, you both being Mafia B is deeply unlikely. So, one of you is telling the truth. The question is, which of these is more unlikely:
- A scumteam going for Cop + II, as well as NK + BA + Doc
- A scum player deciding to repay $53 of a $200 loan, in order to get to the starting balance for scum
The first would be a weird tactical decision. The second just seems totally implausible.

[nopointinactingup]

Really? I'd say it is plausible for careless people to do such thing. And I'm not talking about reason, a player ignorant of pickpocketer CAN VERY MUCH feel like redepositing the rest of the money he loaned to buy an ability. Of course, I wouldn't know and can only offer my explanation as to why it is so xD.

[Fishythefish]

Obviously, there is no onus on you to explain his actions.

Well, I've said my piece. I'd rather an npau lynch at this point. I'll wait for some reactions from people who aren't npau.

[SaintKerrigan]

Fishy, how did you only get $84 remaining after paying off the loan? 5% of 300 is 15, so you should have had $85.

Zang, are you sure you only got $20 off of AGM?

Almaster, we have a problem.

7 Night Kill x 2 - Twice per game, you may PM the mod with a target. The following night, you will attempt to kill that person.
MB: 50

CB: 297

Deadline: 0:01:00 7/3/2010

This was the bidding report from a couple of pages back. In the post immediately afterward you said this:

Regarding quicklynch, here's the dilemma -

I am currently winning the Nightkill.

However, according to your report, you should only have $296 in your account -- one less than $297, the number listed when you claimed to be winning the nightkill. So what's the story, here?

As for Nopoint, his numbers definitely don't add up.

- If is predecessor borrowed $200 and paid off $53 dollars of debt, once you subtract the price of the NK

and the 5% interest ($10)

that leaves Nopoint with $115 dollars, not $125.
- Putting N1 Wages in, at the end of Day 2 Nopoint would've only had $145, not $155, and thus Zang would

not

have gotten $38.75 off of him.
- This implies two possibilities: Nopoint is Scum B who didn't buy anything, or Nopoint is Scum B

and

Zang is Scum B, and both lied.
- Even ignoring this and assuming Nopoint has been accurate thus far, it is impossible for him to have borrowed $160 dollars on Day 4. Why? Because of the cash-debt relationship. The amount of money you can borrow is 300% of your current cash

minus debts

. So if Nopoint had $1 in debt, but $101 in cash, this means he'd be able to borrow 300% of $100.
- This makes Nopoint's borrowing $160 completely impossible, as at this point he has

not

paid off his debt, so it's been compounding (10% the first two nights, 15% last night). If he started off $147 in debt and hasn't made any payments since, that would put him at approximately $205 (204.5505) in debt. Once you put the $215 he accrued in the interim into account, this leaves Nopoint with $15 he can use to borrow with. And even borrowing to the max, there is no way he can get $160.
- All this strongly implies that Nopoint is Scum B.

There is a problem with Nopoint being Scum B, though: SPS is definitely lying about what abilities he has. If he really was Mafia A and bought both the NK and the Bulletproof Vest, his BV should've gone to auction today, like Zang's Pickpocket did. SPS would've paid $294 for those two abilities, and the most money he can scrounge up in three days time to pay the debt off, including his starting funds, is $215. Therefore, since BV did not go to auction today, he definitely did not buy one of those abilities, and it has to be the NK. This means SPS is also Scum B.

This leads to an outrageous, yet not implausible possibility:

both SPS and Nopoint are Scum B

. If that is the case, then the odds are that SPS has the Arsonist. If Nopoint had the Arsonist, SPS wouldn't have counterclaimed Mafia A, because he'd want his partner to live as long as possible and get at least one kill off.

The other two questions, of course, are who is the real Mafia A and who's going to get the NK?

[SaintKerrigan]

EBWOP:

Regarding quicklynch, here's the dilemma - I am currently winning the Nightkill.

[AlmasterGM]

Like I said before, I got confused and was wrong, I wasn't winning, I only bid $296 and am losing.

[Zajnet]

Fishy, how did you only get $84 remaining after paying off the loan? 5% of 300 is 15, so you should have had $85.

Zang, are you sure you only got $20 off of AGM?

Almaster, we have a problem.

7 Night Kill x 2 - Twice per game, you may PM the mod with a target. The following night, you will attempt to kill that person.
MB: 50

CB: 297

Deadline: 0:01:00 7/3/2010

This was the bidding report from a couple of pages back. In the post immediately afterward you said this:

Regarding quicklynch, here's the dilemma -

I am currently winning the Nightkill.

However, according to your report, you should only have $296 in your account -- one less than $297, the number listed when you claimed to be winning the nightkill. So what's the story, here?

As for Nopoint, his numbers definitely don't add up.

- If is predecessor borrowed $200 and paid off $53 dollars of debt, once you subtract the price of the NK

and the 5% interest ($10)

that leaves Nopoint with $115 dollars, not $125.
- Putting N1 Wages in, at the end of Day 2 Nopoint would've only had $145, not $155, and thus Zang would

not

have gotten $38.75 off of him.
- This implies two possibilities: Nopoint is Scum B who didn't buy anything, or Nopoint is Scum B

and

Zang is Scum B, and both lied.
- Even ignoring this and assuming Nopoint has been accurate thus far, it is impossible for him to have borrowed $160 dollars on Day 4. Why? Because of the cash-debt relationship. The amount of money you can borrow is 300% of your current cash

minus debts

. So if Nopoint had $1 in debt, but $101 in cash, this means he'd be able to borrow 300% of $100.
- This makes Nopoint's borrowing $160 completely impossible, as at this point he has

not

paid off his debt, so it's been compounding (10% the first two nights, 15% last night). If he started off $147 in debt and hasn't made any payments since, that would put him at approximately $205 (204.5505) in debt. Once you put the $215 he accrued in the interim into account, this leaves Nopoint with $15 he can use to borrow with. And even borrowing to the max, there is no way he can get $160.
- All this strongly implies that Nopoint is Scum B.

There is a problem with Nopoint being Scum B, though: SPS is definitely lying about what abilities he has. If he really was Mafia A and bought both the NK and the Bulletproof Vest, his BV should've gone to auction today, like Zang's Pickpocket did. SPS would've paid $294 for those two abilities, and the most money he can scrounge up in three days time to pay the debt off, including his starting funds, is $215. Therefore, since BV did not go to auction today, he definitely did not buy one of those abilities, and it has to be the NK. This means SPS is also Scum B.

This leads to an outrageous, yet not implausible possibility:

both SPS and Nopoint are Scum B

. If that is the case, then the odds are that SPS has the Arsonist. If Nopoint had the Arsonist, SPS wouldn't have counterclaimed Mafia A, because he'd want his partner to live as long as possible and get at least one kill off.

The other two questions, of course, are who is the real Mafia A and who's going to get the NK?

This makes epically more sense than Fishy's arguments.

I'm still for an SPS quicklynch.

So pile up those votes ppl, but don't hammer just yet.

[Fishythefish]

@SK: the 5% is actually subtley different from that. If you spend $X repaying, then only 0.95X of capital is payed off. So to pay off 300 it takes 300/0.95, which is (just less than) $316.

Thinking. Hard.

[nopointinactingup]

Busted again. Yeah I lied about half of the above. I'm scum. It's what I do
And to think I just had a Financial Accounting finals today T_T
But what I did not lie about is the fact that I'm Mafia A, have Firefighter and NS estate.
And I currently have more money than I said I had.
I ( my predecessor ) never bought NK, it was just an excuse so that I can say I have less money than I do now. Andrius sent the action in late and forgot to protect me at all =.=, which became a convenient excuse for me to use as a NK-buyer because I know Mafia B would never show their face to counterclaim this ( Mafia B has the first NK ). So as of right now, if I'm speaking the truth, the Scum Bs are obviously Fishy and SPS ( they were tunneling on the fact that I didn't have NK ).

But then again, make your choice.

[SaintKerrigan]

@SK: the 5% is actually subtley different from that. If you spend $X repaying, then only 0.95X of capital is payed off. So to pay off 300 it takes 300/0.95, which is (just less than) $316.

Thinking. Hard.

Your math is off. To figure out a percentage of something, you multiply the number by the decimal representation of the percent. 5% of 300 is 15. You then add 15 to 300 to get $315.

What I'm not getting is why you're using this odd equation when that's not what Zoroaster's been using (I had $90 after paying off a $200 loan on D1. Using your methods I would've actually only had $89). The fact that you're using this with all of your numbers strongly implies that you're lying, as you could've simply used the reports Zorro gave you.

I'm getting a very strong vibe that you're the final scum...

@ Nopoint: Right...

[nopointinactingup]

You're right, I could be lying again But who can trust a scum?

[Fishythefish]

Right. So. Firstly, *facepalm* at myself. I do think my reasons that NPAU was lying were pretty good; SK's are conclusive.

Secondly, I've done the maths to check, and SK is totally right. Neither of these players is trueclaiming; in fact, unless one of them is crazy neither ever had the NK. They are Mafia B.

@SK: I suggest you check with the mod. I did have a loan of $300 on Day 1; I did pay it off, and I did end up with $84. By my maths it should have taken you $210.5 to pay off your loan.

My maths is not off. It's not 5% on

the balance of the loan

that you have to pay extra. It's 5%

of what you pay back

that doesn't go towards the capital. I will check with the mod if this was an error; I suggest you do the same for your loan. The amount 315 pays off would only be 315*0.95=299.25; the amount 210 pays off should only be 210*0.95=199.5. It could be that he rounded this up to 200. Either way, check with the mod.

[nopointinactingup]

@Fish: Sorry that I'm helping the town more than I help you guys I'll make it up to you someday

[Fishythefish]

3. You may pay off your debt at any point. However, any debt you pay off in the first day is charged a 5% service fee. So for example if you take out a $100 loan and pay off $50 of that debt, you will only have paid off $47.5 of the debt, leaving you with a debt of $52.5.

No need to check with the mod (but do anyway); this shows that $50 pays off $50*0.95=$47.5. By your method, it would take $47.5*1.05=$49.875 to pay off the same amount (A difference which gets magnified to almost $1 when going from $50 to $300).