Advertising Mafia - Over, see 1183

[Goatrevolt]

Roleblocker + Tracker x2.

[Goatrevolt]

What's up with Vollkan being late to his own meeting? He's wasting my valuable time.

[Goatrevolt]

Ren: If you were in his position, what criteria would you use to dish out the abilities on day 1?

[Goatrevolt]

Scottyscum giving powers to the scum would be a major drawback to the game, as we'd be wasting tracking results on players that will mislead us.

If scot is scum, and gives power to the scum, what power should we let him hand out? Just a theoretical mafia question.

What do you mean by this? He hands out all the powers.

If he's scum we lynch him. If he's incapable of doing his job, we get the CEO to replace him.

I haven't seen convincing evidence to suggest either yet.

Mod:

How are roles distributed if the CEO has used his one shot power already and the Creative Director is dead? Does the CEO get to pick a new Creative Director even though he's used his 1-shot already?

What happens if both the CEO and Creative director are dead? How are roles distributed?

[Goatrevolt]

In a somewhat related realization. I was unaware I had a quick topic(s) to post in until I looked at my role pm again. Upon realization that I can talk to members in my department, I can say my decision this day will no longer be basically random.

What do you expect to learn from discussion in the quick topic that couldn't also be learned from discussion in the thread?

[Goatrevolt]

I propose that the CEO

does not

use his ability to appoint a new Creative Director unless the current Creative Director is dead.

Hypothetical: CEO removes scot from his position today. Either we lynch/the scum kill the new Creative Director. We effectively get screwed out of all of our roles as early as day 2. If the CEO saves his ability, then we would at least get another day out of it.

[Goatrevolt]

I like Adel's plan. It affords a sort of protection to the important roles by narrowing down the scum who would kill any of the protected players.

Here's an alternative idea along that same vein that is slightly riskier but I also feel slightly stronger of a play:

Group A: PGO + Roleblocker
Group B: Bus Driver
Group C: A giant shaft

Goes roleblocker over tracker in hopes of shutting down a scum kill rather than merely tracking it. Riskier in that the roleblocker could block the bus-driver, with potential for more success in that, if successful, would both stop + determine who made a scum kill instead of merely knowing who did it.

If the roleblocker targets another member of the creative team, they would have a 1/4 chance of hitting the bus driver, vs. if they do hit the scum kill, we also keep a town player alive. If the roleblocker targets any member who is not one of the 6 Copy/Art players and a kill goes through, it's the exact equivalent to tracking them and seeing that they did nothing. So we still get the same results, with the added clause that we keep a townie alive on success.

[Goatrevolt]

The only possible negative is that the mafia

could

no kill to mislead us.

Hm...I didn't think about that.

Although, no-killing to frame someone could backfire if the roleblocker ended up targeting scum anyway. So unless the roleblocker is scum, and no killed to frame someone, then I don't think this would be an issue. And if the rolelbocker is scum, and no killed to frame someone, then we would know the roleblocker was scum after the framed player turned up town.

[Goatrevolt]

I thought framer was just for cops? I'm not sure wha the undertaker role is .

The undertaker screws with a tracker. It makes the tracked player appear to have targeted someone who was killed.

[Goatrevolt]

Who has played with Budja before?

Me.

[Goatrevolt]

Adel: What do you think of using a roleblocker instead of a tracker?

[Goatrevolt]

• 1. RB: won't target another creative team for fear of blocking the busdriver -> scum assign one of their members on the creative team to send in the kill
  2. Tracker -> Can target anyone in the game except for his creative team partner.

I see the RB option as being less restrictive for the scum.

Higher risk, higher reward. There's a 25% chance of hitting the bus driver by targeting another creative team member if done completely randomly (the risk) vs. saving a townie upon success (the reward). I don't see why the roleblocker would need to be limited to only targeting non-creative team members. The chance of hitting the bus driver is low, and the threat of a bus driver on high priority targets is the real goal anyway.

[Goatrevolt]

The CEO shouldn't be using his ability today anyway, considering it's a 1-shot. The CEO should be saving it for if the CD dies.

[Goatrevolt]

The problem with using the bus driver to redirect to the PGO is if the tracker targets the bus driver's target then he dies by getting redirected to the PGO.

By making that the plan we do what Adel didn't want to do by using a roleblocker, which is force the tracker to target only players who are not likely bus driver choices otherwise risk being redirected to the PGO and killed. If the CEO or CD are scum, they could then submit a kill without any risk of being tracked.

The bus driver needs to just drive from one of the powerful roles (CEO/CD) to a vanilla role (account member). Trying to concoct a scheme to drive to the PGO actually limits effectiveness. That's not even considering that publicly announcing the PGO gives the scum the ability to kill his tracker buddy without repercussion.

[Goatrevolt]

I see..you want the town..to fakevote what roles they wanted....thats fine.

has there been a plan yet that didnt involve a tracker?

Yep. I'm partial to using a roleblocker over a tracker for more Oomph.

[Goatrevolt]

I guess that settles the issue of whether or not to use a roleblocker or tracker...

Vollkan, do you agree with FL's suggestion of letting the town pseudo-vote the roles in?

[Goatrevolt]

Vote: Bus Driver
Vote: PGO

[Goatrevolt]

Driving to the PGO is still a bad plan, regardless. I believe I pointed this out already.

If the Bus Driver drives to the PGO, then the tracker can't target anyone who could possibly be the Bus Driver's primary target or they will seriously risk getting PGOwned. So, if someone like FL or Scot is scum, then they could make the kill without having to worry about the tracker targeting them.

[Goatrevolt]

Scum doesn't stick their necks out in broad daylight to work wagons on players that are threatening or inconvenient. They shut up about it during the day, and nightkill them. Right there, you "logic" breaks down.

Scotmany was neither threat nor inconvenience to scum. Your "logic" takes another hit.

So since Scotmany wasn't a threat or inconvenience to scum, you could still be scum pushing his wagon? Or am I missing something here?

Also, why do you say he wasn't a threat or inconvenience to scum?

[Goatrevolt]

So since Scotmany wasn't a threat or inconvenience to scum, you could still be scum pushing his wagon? Or am I missing something here?

Yes. You are missing that Budja implied that scotmany was a inconvenience on account of his role. I am saying that he's wrong about that, too.

You're missing my point. You said scum wouldn't go after a player who was an inconvenience to them in an effort to say "Hey, I'm not scum for doing exactly that." You then proceeded to follow it up by saying "Oh, and scot wasn't an inconvenience" completely negating your previous train of logic.

Also, why do you say he wasn't a threat or inconvenience to scum?

Was he? Who was he threatening, and how could he possibly be construed to be inconvenient to scum?

If Scot is town, he's the most power of the power roles in this game. Is that not a threat?

You sound like you are very much looking forward to night in order to enjoy the thrill of the nightkill with your buddies.

You sound like you are very much pretending to not know this is a deep south game.

Mod: Votecount please

[Goatrevolt]

I'm going to be V/LA for Friday, Saturday, and possibly Sunday. I should be back by Sunday, but it's no guarantee.

I have a strong reason to believe Ren Hoek is town. Everyone voting for him needs to explain what they think about the self-vote.

Also, Adel is right about FL. That reaction really doesn't make sense from a town mindset.

Vote FL

[Goatrevolt]

I'm back. I'll catch up on everything tomorrow.

[Goatrevolt]

Gonna catch up today/tonight.

[Goatrevolt]

unvote, vote:Goatrevolt

look at his last three posts in this game, and http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/search.p ... Goatrevolt to see why

Yeah, yeah. I'm frankly unmotivated to catch up in this game right now. In a few days to a week I will have vastly more time to dedicate.

I don't see any point in waiting longer to reveal this, though:

I was the bus driver. I drove from Scot to Seraphim. The scum didn't try to kill Seraphim in hopes of being driven to a higher priority target, they tried to kill Scot and had it driven to Seraphim.

I'm pretty sure FL is scum based on his reaction. He took the stance of "I don't know why the scum would kill the weakest link." From a townie mindset of "why would the scum kill Seraphim" the assumptions would be that 1. Either they tried to kill a high priority target and had it driven to Sera, or 2. They killed Sera in hopes it would be driven back to a high priority target. As scum that made the kill, though, I could see FL floundering to answer that question correctly. He didn't understand why the scum would target Sera, because the scum didn't target Sera, and he didn't think of killing Seraphim from a townie mindset because he isn't a townie.

I haven't read through the reasons people are suspicious of SensFan, yet, but based on his early interactions with FL, I'm guessing he's town by association.

[Goatrevolt]

GR: Did you talk with your partner about your choice?

No. I took the role as soon as I saw it, and didn't discuss my choice.

So either all accountants are town, or someone felt pretty good about not being selected. Not sure about the others, but I think the risk was significant for Ren there.

I agree. That was my reasoning for thinking Ren was town earlier. By shooting Scot he would have taken a giant risk that the kill would be bus driven right back to him.

Adel: Why did you grab Tracker over the PGO? Also I dispute the assertion that the RB plan would have been better for scum than the tracker plan. It would only be worse if the RB was unwilling to take any kind of risks whatsoever.

----------

I'm not feeling the Sens wagon. I don't agree with his original reasons for voting FL, but I actually find that FL post scummy for a different reason. Directly stating that the purpose of your vote is only because the game is stalled and you want to fuel discussion weakens it entirely. If FL is scum then Sens is likely not, because Sens-scum could have easily sat on Ren Hoek and ignored the push on FL, rather than continue to assert pressure there.

FL: Would you have voted Seraphim in that scenario had the game not been stalled?

Budja strikes me as town thus far. Posts 5-7 in Iso, for example, fit the town-Budja meta.

Does anyone have a meta on Crywolf as town?

[Goatrevolt]

Adel: Why did you grab Tracker over the PGO?

I decided that I needed to target you.

Really? Why? I'm extremely curious why you all of a sudden made this decision that you needed to target me.

Also I dispute the assertion that the RB plan would have been better for scum than the tracker plan. It would only be worse if the RB was unwilling to take any kind of risks whatsoever.

or if the RB was scum.

Well, it turns out the tracker plan ended up being better anyway, as you will confirm my bus drive action, which in turn will also help confirm Scot as town. Hindsight doesn't affect the value of a decision made, though.

Crywolf had made it clear before the game started (on scumchat) that she'd be lurking throughout.

Based on what?

Also, every game I have been in with Crywolf, she has lurked throughout day one. This is my third game with her. One, she was lynched on day one, the other she replaced out for personal reasons. In both games she was town.

Ok, that's what I wanted to know. I've played in 2 games with Crywolf, and in both she lurked, and in both she was scum (well, neutral survivor in one).

unvote, vote:Goatrevolt

look at his last three posts in this game, and http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/search.p ... Goatrevolt to see why

thats a good catch...Goat?

Goat answers this the next post (and hour later). Immediately I thought this was scummy, until I read the post. IF you take Goat’s post for face value, makes scot look good. Goat, why did you pick Sera for the end target?

When I fall behind in games I can have issues motivating myself to stay active. When I'm caught up and remain interested in a game I can be extremely active. It's not an alignment tell, it happens as both town and scum (In fact, that's exactly how I played in the game we played together where I was a confirmed town mason). In this case, I fell behind over that weekend I was gone, and didn't care to read up on the 6 or so pages I was behind.

I picked Seraphim for the end target because I found him the scummiest of the account executives, based on his play during the "choose your roles" portion of the day.

Anyway, hmm. Ok, assuming goat is telling the truth here and bussed scot and serephem, then that means that the scum must have tried to kill scot, which basically confirms scot as pro-town. Awesome.

Assuming Adel isn't lying about targeting me, this will be confirmed at the end of the day.

[Goatrevolt]

tracker doesn't get results until end of day. Tracker should not claim until after he gets results.

What changed from this to your decision to reveal yourself?

Goat claimed role and target.

You revealed you were the tracker prior to that. Why?

Goatrevolt, what were the exact words in the PM you sent to Korts choosing your targets?

"I'm going to bus drive from Scotmany to Seraphim."

[Goatrevolt]

Goatrevolt, what were the exact words in the PM you sent to Korts choosing your targets?

"I'm going to bus drive from Scotmany to Seraphim."

So there is no conceivable reason why my tracker result will show you targeting Seraphim?

Correct. I PMed Korts to verify, but it should show up as Scot.

[Goatrevolt]

Can you give an example of a post of mine that felt artificial?

[Goatrevolt]

I heard back from Korts and my result will show up as having targeted Scot.

It took a bit, but I understand what makes FL dangerous now (I should have been the first to notice this). His role is strictly a liability for us, and can potentially screw us over entirely if he's scum (which is probably the case).

[Goatrevolt]

Vollkan: You're baffled at why Budja calls the FL case poor, but you also called it weak. What gives?

[Goatrevolt]

Also, you failed entirely to comment on Adel's plan to quicklynch FL. Thoughts?

[Goatrevolt]

I'm in agreement with the plan as well.

[Goatrevolt]

OGML's 595: I agree with the majority of this. A few comments:

I don't think the FL lynch was as awful as you say. FL wasn't "obvious caught scum" but he had the potential to absolutely wreck the game if he was scum, and was pretty suspicious on an individual merit anyway. If he had appointed himself CD as scum, we would have been forced to lynch him and lose roles for the rest of the game, or leave caught scum alive to distribute roles in the least helpful fashion. Neither of those were bright prospects.

Your list is fairly similar to my own thoughts, except I'd bump Vollkan to the neutral categy and swap Crywolf/Adel, and I'm indecisive on both Yos/Sens right now. So maybe less similar that I guessed... I'd put you in the "town seeming" pile, although less so if Ren is scum. I can't see scum being eager to try to clear Ren as pro-town as you have.

------

Mind explaining the basis upon which you asserted that I was "posting so much elsewhere"?

to see what your response time was, and if anyone else would follow my vote.

glad to see that you are active again.

who do you think is scum?

and it did get vollkan posting.

Did you have any expectations of how people would follow your vote, and what if anything did you expect to learn?

- Yos continuing to push the "scum killed someone on the Ren wagon therefore Ren is scum" line of attack is really, really scummy.

why? The same though occurred to me. I really didn't think that the scum would've targeted scot, for fear of the busdriver, and I was trying to figure out why Serapham was targeted by scum, and saving Ren's bacon seemed like a plausible cause.

What did you make of Ren's vote on himself? That seems to be a completely overlooked point. If the purpose was for Ren to save himself by killing Seraphim, then why would he be on his own lynch wagon? That makes absolutely no sense.

- I'm following scot's reasoning much better now. Early game random thing was probably honest. Ren's reaction to it still makes him town.

how does Ren's reaction make him honest? More importantly, how do you equate Ren's corruption of the signal:noise ratio in this thread with a likely-town alignment?

How has Ren corrupted signal:noise ratio? This is a weak reason for suspicion, considering the subjective nature of evaluating what is signal vs. what is noise. Do you have any previous statistics/experience on signal/noise and whether it correlates to scum more? It seems like a fairly...arbitrary assessment.

4. suicidal Ren-scum: Ren is about to get lynched anyway, so kill scot, Ren (scum) is a likely target for busdrive (no loss) and so is Seraphim (saves Ren's bacon) but then so is Crywolf.

Thinking about my above statement (The why would Ren be trying to save himself when he was on his own wagon statement) I started considering this as well. The only plausible scenario where Ren is scum is the one where he sees that he's dead, decides he wants to quickly end the day, and hopes to take out the most powerful player in one swift action.

It seems much less likely than the Ren is town scenario, but it shouldn't be completely ignored as a possibility.

-------

Sorry, misread, you weren't referring to GR's towniness.
Still, you put him as very likely town and I presume it's because of his busdrive, so the question stands anyway though not related to the quote.

What do

you

think about that situation?

Anyway, he is right that one of my arguments against Ren, the one based on the kill, is no longer valid now that we know the scum tried to kill Scot, and hadn't actually intended to kill Serephem.

How was this ever valid? How do you explain the dichotomy of Ren both killing someone on his wagon to prevent his lynch...yet being a lynching member of his wagon as well?

Didn't read all of OGML's post and everything said in the last page, but I believe he is wrong when he says Adel is scum. Mostly because I still believe Sens to be scum, and I really don't see them talking like they did in there QT if they were scum together.

Excellent point.

@Ren, examples? I think I have been straightforward enough with my views.

I can't give examples. One has to look at your posts in isolation, or in context. I cannot give an example that explains that you are circumspect and overly cautious. One has to read your posts and FEEL it.

How does that feeling mesh with his vote on you early day 1?

We haven't really used ours either.

If there was anything I specficially wanted to question goat about, I would do it in thread here and get reactions from other people as well.

I've been having a difficult enough time staying active in this thread, let alone pursuing other avenues in the QTs. There are a few scenarios off the top of my head where I can see myself wanting to confer to Yos in private, but it's nothing that's come up yet.

Regarding Sens: I don't think I've ever seen Sens as scum. Sens is less aggressive, and is making less sense than my opinion of typical Sens-town play. This could possibly be explained by his out of game issues, though, which is why I'm hesitant to jump all over that. Anyone know off the top of their head whether Sens is playing in other games and his post rate in those?

I'd appreciate if someone took a look a Budja, and report on whether they get the same icky feeling I do. Maybe it's my imagination. If it is, I'd like to know. I need a second opinion.

I'm not against an Adel or a Yosarian lynch, however, Budja does seem to be actively trying not to ping anyone's scumdar. In another game, I'd suspect he's a doctor or scum. In this game, only one of these is possible.

I feel fairly comfortable in my ability to read Budja. In the 3 games I've played with him, I've been able to correctly call his alignment pretty much instantly (ok, ok, we were scum buddies in one of the games). Unless he's escaped his scum meta, his early attack on you was definitely Budja-town.

Budja-scum involved egregious lurking, and relatively no stances whatsoever/weak stances.

Was "Sens scum tends to be careful" (or something like that) part of your met?

That reminds me of something actually. I seem to recall Sens-scum pulling a ridiculous gambit in a game I read a while back. I'll have to check up on that.

The fact that you continue to try to smear Ren despite the fact he can only be scum if Goat is also scum is ridiculous Adel.

Actually, this isn't true. I'm not scum, but Ren isn't necessarily cleared, or at least not nearly to the point it has escalated to. It is not out of the realm of possibilities that he

wanted

to end the day with his lynch after it looked pretty clear that he was going down. It would explain the self-vote when he was nearly lynched + the shot at the most powerful power role who wasn't on his wagon.

------

It's late and I'm tired. Going to plan on doing some Iso reads and voting tomorrow.

I also apologize for the giant wall of text. I grumbled to myself at having to read those walls when I skimmed through and now I'm dropping an even bigger one.

[Goatrevolt]

I actually disagree...I dont think Adel/Sens scum pair makes any sense....going to post my thoughts on the matter shortly...no time at the moment.

Agreed. I think it's much more likely that one would be scum and not the other than them both being scum together.

If anyone thinks they are confirmed right now, they are sorely mistaken.

Are you trying to insinuate anything with this? If so, what?

And concerning yourself, Yosarian, the case has been made by others, mostly in the QT, and you're in for a treat when it becomes public.

Is there any reason it's being held back?

[Goatrevolt]

I don't have much time but

The more they try to discredit Ren, the more they look like scum.

vote: Ren Hoek

So...you're trying to look like scum?

Or does OGML attacking you somehow make a Ren vote more viable?

---------------------

Going to review the Adel case in less of a skimmed form. I will say that I think the point about Adel tracking me despite not expressing suspicion of me publicly is weak. If I were scum, I would be one of the better choices to submit a night kill simply because I was unsuspected.

[Goatrevolt]

I don't have much time but

The more they try to discredit Ren, the more they look like scum.

vote: Ren Hoek

So...you're trying to look like scum?

Or does OGML attacking you somehow make a Ren vote more viable?

OGML claiming that suspicion of Ren being scum is a scumtell is bullshit.

How exactly is that a point against Ren though? Wouldn't that be a point against OGML? I'm not really getting your vote right now.

Agreed. I don't see how OGML prompted the Ren vote at all.

Ren wasn't on your list of 6 scum suspects in your post a while back. Why is he the most probable scum?

[Goatrevolt]

Also, I am unsure what to think of Adel's reactions at this moment. I could truly see him do this as town as well as scum.

He's pretty genuinely pissed, regardless. The question is: Would Adel-scum fake reactions? Or would Adel-scum react this way as scum at all?

Initial gut-call on the reactions: Town.

[Goatrevolt]

I agree the reaction is over the top, but why vote SensFan? That's seriously just asking to get lynched.

[Goatrevolt]

I agree the reaction is over the top, but why vote SensFan? That's seriously just asking to get lynched.

There is a lot of WIFOM in the path that you are going down with Adel.

"Anakin! There is much WIFOM down that path."

I don't consider it WIFOM.

Well I doubt he'd fake to leave the site?

I checked GD, and there is a "goodbye Adel" thread. So I imagine that his reasons for leaving the site for a while is the source of the frustration.

I'm going to call the reaction itself a null tell. If he's at the point where he wants out, I could see him snapping at being lynched town or scum. The vote on Sens, though, I believe to still be somewhat meaningful. I just don't understand why he would do that as scum.

[Goatrevolt]

I agree that Adel's outburst is pretty much a nulltell. However, his vote on Sens bothers me, and yes Goat, there is a lot of WIFOM in the way you are thinking. At this point i'm leaing towards lynching Adel, but Sens needs to say something. Preferable soon.

I'm leaning the opposite actually. I don't like how Sens has taken the opportunity to lurk back into the shadows and say nothing once the pressure is off of him.

I also think he's reading this thread but actively lurking. In my ominous post 666, I address a few comments about Sens, and he responds in 13 minutes. Can you say reading the thread, but only popping in to address things directed at him?

His Sens vote is bad, and I don't know how you can view it a sensical.

I'm definitely viewing it as "Sens"ical.

Consistancy is a scum tell.

In what bizarre world is this the case?

I agree that town players should change their mind based on new information, but the big flaw in your stance is that

there was no new information regarding SensFan....or Ren Hoek for that matter.

The fact that you are trying to argue that Adel's votes on Ren and Sens wasn't bad play is laughable.

In this case, I think Adel's sudden flip on Sensfan makes sense, and I also think it was a very pro-town thing to do. For one thing, if Sens does flip scum, then the way people reacted to Adel's sudden change of heart will give us lots of information, I think.

Are you trying to make the argument that Adel voted SensFan for the purpose of the information we would learn? There's absolutely no way that's true. He voted Sens out of spite/frustration/anger, not as some ploy to gather information for the town.

Yosarian, your arguments make absolutely no sense regarding Adel.

However, this Adel wagon is so clearly terrible that I would have trouble beliving it's not pushed by scum right now.

Prove it to me. You continually assert Adel is pro-town but you've given pretty much no reasons to believe this is the case. The argument "Adel is playing down the center of his town meta here" doesn't hold water without corroborating evidence.

Scum have an incentive to get rid of the creative pairs. The only people who would know that TDC-Budja do not have bulletproof are TDC-Budja (Budjascum has an incentive to keep TDCtown alive, so that he can continue getting abilities) and the creative team that I gave the bulletproof too, which is you, Yos, and Goat. Doesn't make sense for Budja to kill him, and scum in accounting wouldn't know who had the bulletproof, unless there is scum in creative. So that leaves you Yos, since I in no way believe Goat to be town.

I wouldn't put it past Adel/Sens to be able to arrive at the conclusion that Yosarian and I got the bulletproof / tracker combination as by far the most likely outcome. Considering I'm essentially confirmed, it would make sense to give the most powerful roles (including the protection one) to my team.

[Goatrevolt]

I think he was referring to you and mixed up the names.

[Goatrevolt]

Sens is actually gone from the site for a few days, so although he

has

been lurking today, he does have a reason for the recent inactivity.

Here is where I'm at:

Most likely town:

Ren Hoek
OGML
CKD
Scot
Budja

Could go either way:

Michel (currently leaning town)
Yosarian2 (mixed)

Probably scum:

Ojanen
SensFan
Vollkan

----------------------

Ojanen

Lurker replaced by lurker. There's not much content to go off of, but this right here is a prime pick for lurkerscum.

Vollkan

His stance on FL is really confusing and feels contradictory somehow, even though I haven't really gone through it with a fine tooth comb yet. Since then he's barely contributing anything, instead looking to float by with a PBPA on Budja that has no traction. He needs to take a stance on Sens/Adel.

SensFan

I have no problem with his play early game. The vote on FL was reasonable. His defense was also rational, however, my big problem is that he pretty much refused to describe what was strong about the FL case, instead opting to say "it's been explained already." This is problematic for 2 reasons. The first is that it reeks of him not having a strong case if he's loath to explain it. The 2nd is that, if he has a case and people want to know if it's a good case, why not explain it to them? Shouldn't you want to lynch people you think are scum? Avoiding answering those questions detracts from a FL lynch, which is good for Sens-scum (avoids being pegged after pushing a mislynch) but makes little sense from Sens-town (you don't want your suspect lynched...why?).

His activity has directly reflected the attention focused on him. When he was under attack, he was active. When people have been focused elsewhere, he shifted into the shadows. I find that scummy (and I also feel Vollkan is guilty of this as well).

----------

I wouldn't be opposed to lynching any of those 3, but as of now I think Sens is the scummiest, followed by Vollkan, and then Ojanen, and my lynch preference would be that order.

Vote SensFan

[Goatrevolt]

His stance on FL is really confusing and feels contradictory somehow, even though I haven't really gone through it with a fine tooth comb yet.

There was an issue there in that I changed my mind once in relation to what Budja said, then I changed my mind again once Adel seemingly refuted Budja but then, on rereading, I disagreed with Adel but didn't state as such in the thread. I put it a little better in this post answering a question of Adel's:

now you have forgotten why you agreed with me?

Hmm...Reading what you quote, I've confused myself. I vaguely remember that something made me think that your point wasn't as good as I said in 345, but I'm not sure where that thought went. I think it was subsumed in my point about Budja's failure to connect the dots, which I know I obviously then shifted on after your point. For that reason, my relative evaluation's reference to Budja is wrong. However, I did and do continue to think that the argument you are making still relies on an assumption that town FL would join the dots.

See, I don't think it is unreasonable to posit that town-FL might not, at first instance, be thinking strategically enough to work out the busdriving scenario. From there, the question arises as to whether your listing would have been sufficient to join the dots for town-FL. I know I am flat-out contradicting what I said in 345, but I just don't think that the list leaves us to conclude that FL was not being genuine. It seems a bizarre strategy for scum (and, unless I am again mistaken, your argument is that FL was being deliberately disingenuous) to pick on one part of the post (the list itself) and totally ignore the rest of it (where you explicitly refer to the busdriver switch). Pretty much a classic case of Hanlon's Razor. True, FL is more competent than Budja, but that doesn't in any way serve to establish that FL's action wasn't a consequence of blunder.

All I can say is that I will have to look at it closer. The back and forth and inability to express your stance on FL without confusion strikes me as scum struggling to keep track of their past stances on FL.

1) I think you are mistaking lack of conviction for lack of contribution. I'm pretty sure I have given my opinion on every major point.

I disagree that contribution is equivalent to providing an opinion on everything. You have provided your stance on every major point but you haven't really...done anything. No conviction, no pressure, no real attempt to find scum, and that's what I mean by lack of contribution. I feel like you are just floating along. You're giving your stance on things as they come up, but you're not going out of your way to do anything on your own.

2) What do you mean by "no traction"? I reached a clear conclusion on Budja's scumminess and I am still pursuing the line of inquiry in relation to post 28.

Moderately scummy was your conclusion. Interestingly enough, your reasons for Budja being moderately scummy is almost a perfect match to your play this game as well.

You've found someone who is moderately scummy who you are half-heartedly pressuring, while brushing aside the major cases of the day. That looks pretty suspicious to me.

3) I gave my opinion on the Sens case ages back, and I've written quite a bit on what I think of Adel (whose play I mostly just find confusing)

Is there anywhere in the thread where you have definitely said "I think Sens is town" or "I think Sens is scum"? Your opinion of Sens lacked a conclusion. You merely said you had trouble weighing him and Ren up. Also your opinion early/midway through day 1 on Sens is a bit outdated, no?

Ok, looking into it a little further, you say you have trouble weighing them up. But your vote is on Ren at the time. By that I can conclude you find Sens to be pretty scummy. So why haven't you pursued Sens at all today? If he was almost equally as scummy as Ren, who you were voting day 1, then why pursue Budja (moderately scummy) over him today?

Also you haven't really taken a stance on Adel either. Confusing is not an alignment. Do you think he's scum or town?

When he was under attack, he was active. When people have been focused elsewhere, he shifted into the shadows. I find that scummy (and I also feel Vollkan is guilty of this as well).

Examples?

Your most active portions of this game are when Adel directly addresses you or calls you out to contribute. When nobody is addressing you, your posting frequency and content drops off the face of the earth.

-----------------

I think Sens and Vollkan are scum together. Vollkan agreed with the case on Sens but kept his vote on Ren day 1. Today he has taken to going after Budja rather than go back to Sens, who would be the logical next target.

We should lynch Sens today. Vollkan tomorrow.

[Goatrevolt]

Why does it look like "scum" struggling to keep track of their past stances as opposed to, as I have said, town changing his mind, forgetting about exactly when, and then coming back confused? It's not exactly a particularly weird sort of mistake to make.

As town you have legitimate suspicions of people. When you think someone is town, you have actual reasons to think they are town. When you think someone is scum you have actual reasons to think they are scum. Townies are unlikely to confuse their stance on someone because it's what they truly believe.

On the other hand, scum are faking their stances on everyone. Scum are far more likely to confuse their stance on someone because they forgot that they had written them off as town or scum earlier, etc. They're faking all their suspicions, so it can catch up to scum if they don't keep on top of what they've said at all points.

So you confusing your stance on FL and not remembering what your stance on him was is far more likely to come from scum than town. As town, you would actually believe FL is town/scum/neutral, etc. whereas as scum you would be placing him town/scum/neutral based on what you felt was the best for your ulterior motives.

This really comes back to the meta thing from earlier. When I am very suspicious of someone or, if scum, have found an easy target, then I am hyper-aggressive, otherwise it isn't at all uncommon for me not to be hyperactive. There have been a few points where I had strong suspicions - Ren early on and Budja now as the best examples - but so much of the scumminess in this particular game is wide open to dispute (I'm thinking mainly of the FL case and the Adel blowup)

Ok. Elaborate on your stance on Budja for me. You listed him as moderately scummy, but now he's a strong suspicion. Is it based on that one post alone? What about post 8 in his iso read, that you gave him town cred for?

No. The fact that you think this shows you haven't read either Budja or myself with sufficient attention. I haven't had strong suspicions, but I haven't also shied away from giving my opinion and there have been numerous points where I have asked proper questions. Budja, in contrast, has almost entirely avoided giving away his positions and, when he has asked questions, they've just been the piss-easy "Adel post your views on Sensfan" variety, which don't require any actual reading on his part.

See I don't agree. I think Budja has provided his opinions on any topic he's been asked to as well. What constitutes a proper question or not is pretty subjective, and I'm not sure "who has asked the most proper questions" is a good gauge for scum finding anyway.

Also, your post ignores the specific actions by Budja that I find scummy, particularly 28.

I don't find anything glaringly wrong with that stance. For the record, that was quite similar to my own stance on FL.

I'm pretty sure Budja is town, as I've stated previously. Posts 5-7 in his Iso read match the Budja-town meta and not the Budja-scum meta. I also agree with your own reasons for finding him townie based on his post 8 in iso.

Given that I was voting Ren at the time, saying I have trouble weighing them up should have been a pretty clear indication of where I stood. And, yeah, that is old material, but I frankly can't see what major new stuff has emerged since then. The issues with Adel really don't compel me one way or the other, and people just seem to have this general sense of him being "sloppy" which, in my experience of Sensfan, isn't peculiar. Hence, why I have not said "I think Sens is town" or "I think Sens is scum".

This is confusing. You merge your opinions of Adel/Sensfan together and I have no clue what your actual stance on either is.

Adel: Town or scum?
Sens: Town or scum?

This is bullshit. I know this point has been raised before (by Adel, IIRC), but it's just not true.

First time Adel called me out was way at the beginning where I showed quite clearly that she was not correct in her attack

Second time was when she asked me "how about now?" just five posts after I said I lacked concrete suspicions. I posted 3 days later.

Third time was the time she asked me to post the comparative case. Which I did. And then I didn't post for 3 days. Then I posted. Then another 3 days. Then, without prodding by Adel, pretty much at least one post per day.

I'll back off this point for now, until I have a chance to look into it closer. My interpretation of your play has been that you've gone completely unnoticed unless directly called out, but I don't have any kind of evidence to back that up with, except my own feel from your play.

[Goatrevolt]

Michel, you make some wild assumptions that aren't necessarily accurate. You assume the scum ran through all those calculations when determining their kill, and then picked one that was the best possible for them. Secondly, you assume that the mafia uses the same calculations you do. Thirdly, you start from the assumption Ren is scum and then say "trying to kill scot is the best kill for Ren scum." You're starting with the conclusion you're trying to prove. Trying to kill scot might have been the best play for other players as well.

Ojanen: The seraphim kill means scot is town. It would mean he was very likely town even if there wasn't my bus drive involved. Let's assume the scum actually killed Seraphim. Why would they do that? Presumably trying to get bus driven back to Scot.

[Goatrevolt]

Regarding the quicklynch of FL: If FL appointed himself as CD, we were screwed. That combined with individual evidence against him combined with evidence to suggest Ren (the main wagon) was town, made a FL lynch a good play.

[Goatrevolt]

At this point I am still good with my vote on Adel/MS. Sens is also looking shitty again too. He is posting everywhere else, but now that Adel gave him his free pass(

Senstown probably would not post

), he is using it. I also think Yos is particularly scummy as well.

Explain?

[Goatrevolt]

I'd be willing to lynch CKD,

Bruja

, or Sensfan today.

Oh yeah? You said you thought he was town in our QT. What's changed?

[Goatrevolt]

At this point I am still good with my vote on Adel/MS. Sens is also looking shitty again too. He is posting everywhere else, but now that Adel gave him his free pass(

Senstown probably would not post

), he is using it. I also think Yos is particularly scummy as well.

Explain?

that was what Adel was saying...that sens lack of posting is a town tell for him.

Ah, I understand now. I disagree wholeheartedly with Adel's assessment.

[Goatrevolt]

Dont know, you do have a point here....but the fact doesnt change...the TDC DOES make you, Sens, and Adel/MS look worse, if just by being alive...his kill also (in my opinion) make Bud look better

Disagree with it making Sens and Adel/MS look bad. Only makes Yos look bad.

Eh, Adel/Sens could have easily reasoned that it was more likely for Yosarian and I to get the Bulletproof/tracker than TDC/Budja.

At any rate, Yosarian can get lumped in with Vollkan as players who think SensFan is scum but are making no effort to get him lynched.

For a wagon with as much support as SensFan's wagon has, it's surprising how far he is away from being lynched. Scum not ready to bus yet?

[Goatrevolt]

I just kind of assumed our team would get bulletproof because I was mostly confirmed and thus a likely kill target, and bulletproof/tracker was the strongest combination.

Also, regardless of which team got jailkeeper, they would be forced into protecting you regardless, because they would basically be screwed if they let you die.

[Goatrevolt]

What's the case on Yosarian? The two points I see against him are:
1. Iffy reasoning on Adel = town (I tend to agree with the conclusion, but not the reasoning).
2. Should be voting SensFan but isn't (only meaningful if Sens is scum).

I find him mildly scummy, more so if Sens is scum, but I don't think he's anywhere close to Sens and Vollkan in scumminess.

We should be lynching one of those two today. Preferably Sens.

[Goatrevolt]

Well, no; actions are pro-town they help the town. If changing your mind suddenly dosn't at all hurt the town (and it dosn't), and if doing like that gets reactions that give the town tons of information, then it is pro-town.

The end result of Adel's action may have had pro-town consequences, but that doesn't mean it was a pro-town action. What matters is Adel's reasoning for doing the action. Your argument is "It generated tons of good information and discussion, thus it was pro-town, thus the person who did it is pro-town." That's a faulty conclusion. What matters is "Did Adel do this for a pro-town purpose?" All that matters is why people do what they do, not the end result. Someone could propose a completely anti-town plan, but if they do it legitimately believing it will help the town, then it's a faulty argument to say "your plan failed, thus you are scum."

You are attributing motives to Adel that we have no way of knowing, and that seem frankly unlikely, in order to call him pro-town. It's far more likely that he voted SensFan out of frustration at Sens or because he wanted to go for the other wagon as he's going down, whatever, than that he had some sort of plan in the midst of his rage to generate information for the town.

[Goatrevolt]

Perhaps. But Volkan and others were claiming that changing your mind like this is somehow inherently scummy, wheras I tend to think it's inherently pro-town, it's something pro-town people should do.

I don't think it's inherently scummy, but I also disagree with your assertion that it's generally pro-town. It is entirely based on context.

In this situation, I agree with your conclusion. I think Adel is more likely to make that play as town than scum, simply because his complete reversal on Sens is just asking to be lynched as scum, whereas I could see a townie getting fed up with Sens inactivity and changing his mind in the heat of the moment.

The idea that frequently changing your mind is pro-town is one I really don't agree with at all, though. What matters is the reasons behind those swaps (or to look at it the other way, the reasons behind why someone

didn't

make a swap). There have been games as town where I have sat on the same person endlessly. There have been other games where I've swapped all over the place. Context.

------

Michel: The idea that Ren and I are scum together and somehow concocted this grandiose scheme is far-fetched. The number of hoops we would have had to jump through, and the number of possible ways for that scenario to go wrong make it extremely unlikely. Plus, to top it off, your theory doesn't really explain the self-vote. If the purpose was to save Ren, then Ren's vote on himself strictly serves counterproductive to the plan. Why would the two of us play it so tightly to the edge and give the chance for someone to hammer Ren in the meantime if our end goal involved Ren not being lynched? If the only possible answer you can come up with to that question is "to make it more believable, or to try to spice it up a bit" then I believe you can evaluate for yourself how implausible this notion is.

Your case against Ren still makes too many assumptions. You assume optimal play and don't take into account other factors. Maybe the scum had some reasons for the kill that we don't know? Maybe the scum simply thought it would be worth risking it to get rid of Scot? Trying to pinpoint the day 1 kill to Ren alone is flawed, much like the reasons to pinpoint the TDC kill to Yosarian. There are too many other possibilities to make an accurate call.

Do you have any other suspects besides Ren?

[Goatrevolt]

I'll lynch Sens or Vollkan.

[Goatrevolt]

Michel: What actions/what luck has Ren done to confirm himself? None of the reasons for believing him to be confirmed have to do with things he's done.

You think it's ridiculous that Ren could be so lucky to get confirmed, but your arguments for the opposite are even more preposterous. The theory that Ren and I choreographed some scheme where he self-voted to L-1, so he could bounce a kill off my own bus drive that was lucky enough to be verified by a tracker in order to confirm him is unbelievably far-fetched. That's not even considering the possible pitfalls of us trying such a scheme, such as someone simply hammering Ren in the meantime. That would be quite a failure of a plan. We setup this plan to confirm Ren that involves a completely suboptimal kill on Seraphim and someone simply hammers Ren in the meantime. Plan destroyed. Kill wasted.

------

More people need to commit to a vote or state who they are willing to vote.

[Goatrevolt]

The Sens case consists of a few particular incidences of scumminess which, whilst serious, are not damning because they are the sort of thing I can see as possibly coming about via sloppy town play.

SensFan has barely posted anything this game. There's not a lot to pin on someone who hasn't given a lot to evaluate. The merit of the case shouldn't be based at all around how many instances of scumminess can be presented.

[Goatrevolt]

There's not a lot to pin on someone who hasn't given a lot to evaluate.

Call me paranoid, but I always fear that a lack of information for us to pin someone is usually by design.

Meaning that there isn't much to pin on Sens because he's playing in such a way as to avoid there being anything to pin on him? Or did you mean something else by this?

[Goatrevolt]

List of who would vote for who.

SensFan

(5) - Budja, Goatrevolt, Ojanen, Yosarian, Ren Hoek

MichelSableheart

(3) - curiouskarmadog, OGML, Ren Hoek

Yosarian2

(2) - OhGodMyLife, Ren Hoek

Ren Hoek

(1) - MichelSableheart

curiouskarmadog

(1) - Yosarian2

Vollkan

(1) - Goatrevolt

Correct or add to your name as you wish.

Anyone not voting should announce who they are willing to vote.

[Goatrevolt]

SensFan

(6) - Budja, Goatrevolt, Ojanen, Yosarian, Ren Hoek, Scot

MichelSableheart

(4) - curiouskarmadog, OGML, Ren Hoek, Scot

Yosarian2

(2) - OhGodMyLife, Ren Hoek

Ren Hoek

(1) - MichelSableheart

curiouskarmadog

(1) - Yosarian2

Vollkan

(1) - Goatrevolt

[Goatrevolt]

Here is our QT:

[Goatrevolt]

On that note:

Can we see the accounting thread, at least in regard to discussion about Adel? I want to see how that all went down.

[Goatrevolt]

Vollkan is skyrocketing from "mildly suspicious" to "pretty much a lock for 3rd member of the Michel-Yos scumteam"

I don't think Adel/Yosarian are scum together. Yosarian is tying himself far too neatly to Adel for them to be a scum pair. He's quite frankly begging us to lynch him next if Adel is scum, and I don't see Yosarian making that play as a scum buddy.

If Vollkan/Yosarian are indeed scum, their interactions with Sens are much more scum-scum than interactions with Adel. They both were on his case day 1 (although both of them had their votes on Ren, if I recall correctly) and now today they have gone after other pursuits (Budja, CKD).

I'm fairly certain SensFan is scum, and the inability to get him lynched despite the overwhelming spoken support of his lynch means there are a few scum buddies out there hoping to avoid having to bus quite yet. Vollkan/Yosarian are the two likeliest culprits here.

[Goatrevolt]

SensFan, you are constantly posting elsewhere around the site. We will lynch you if you do not start doing something.

Seriously. Inactivity due to problems outside your control is one thing. Avoidance of this game while being active on site is another.

[Goatrevolt]

How is not ignoring the game, but also not posting in it anything other than lurking?

[Goatrevolt]

Why not replace out then?

How long can we expect until your "more to come"?

[Goatrevolt]

I was addressing that comment at Sens, not you.

[Goatrevolt]

It's been a day and a half and still nothing from Sens...

[Goatrevolt]

Fuck Yeah! I found scum. My track caught the player who targeted TDC.

Here is the plan. Scot reassigns the teams. Me + Budja. MSH + Yosarian. He gives me and Budja Vigilante and Bus Driver. He gives Yosarian/MSH cop.

I take the vigilante role and shoot the scum I caught. MSH or Yosarian uses the cop role on a scummy target. I trust Budja the most out of the remaining creative team. I will give him a subset of players NOT to target with the bus driver role and he uses it to protect either myself or Scot. Coinflip.

This way, we eliminate scum, protect the two most pro-town players without screwing with the vigilante kill, and use a cop to hopefully catch another scum.

Anyway, gotta run. I'll elaborate more on this in a bit.

[Goatrevolt]

Wait to assign all the roles until Scot reassigns the teams. I would hate to screw this up by failing to do this in the right order.

I'd prefer to have the vigilante. If Budja is town, then it doesn't matter who gets what, as he'll make the correct play. If he's scum, he can do more damage with the vigilante role than he can do with the bus driver. Either way, we will know if he's scum and uses it incorrectly. However, at least with the bus driver, he has to take a guess as to who I'm shooting and could easily guess wrong. I think we minimize the risk this way.

[Goatrevolt]

There are more than one ways scum can use the busdriver to there advantage Goat. Many of those ways evolve wifom. At least with the vigilante role if he doesn't kill who you tell him to kill then we know he is scum.

True, but even in that scenario he still wastes a day and the scum get an extra kill.

I'll take the Bus Driver, though.

[Goatrevolt]

Who got the Jailkeeper role yesterday and how was it used?

[Goatrevolt]

Alright, new team is a go. Carry on.

Scot is right about the actions. There are 72 hours of Morning Subphase where we have plenty of time to submit actions without fear of scum reprisal. They all happen at the end simultaneously.

[Goatrevolt]

Yeah. We can vote in all 3 roles without worry at this point, now that the teams are set up.

[Goatrevolt]

But we don't know who the scum is...

Not yet. It will all be revealed in due time.

[Goatrevolt]

Ah, Blackberry. I've been trying to program web applications for BlackBerry's for my job and it's been a pain in the ass.

I've got a reason (might be nothing, but I don't see the downside) to waiting on claiming. Unless there is a pressing reason for me to lay it all out now, I'd prefer to see how things go first.

Patience is a virtue .

[Goatrevolt]

I'm going to play it close to my chest for now and see how things develop.

[Goatrevolt]

Yeah, the development is slow. Arrested, some would say.

[Goatrevolt]

If both Michel and Yosarian are scum together, then Yosarian played one of the most blatantly over the top defenses of as scum buddy I've ever seen. And now Michel is defending Yosarian today as well. Considering neither of them really have the sway to stop a lynch on the other, I'm guessing they are not both scum together, unless tying themselves together for no benefit is the optimum scum play here.

[Goatrevolt]

I mentioned this in the Creative Department QT, but we should not have chosen Bus Driver today. It's simply a liability.

I had a plan in place to maybe try to trap up Budja, but honestly, I'd rather just play this straightforward and not risk anything on a gambit. I like to play risky, but I simply don't think it's worth it here.

I took the vig shot. I'm shooting Vollkan. Budja and I are working out the best bus drive choices. If in 72 hours I'm dead and Vollkan is not dead, then Budja is scum.

Right now the scum team is Vollkan + one of Ojanen/CKD + one of Yosarian/Michel. Outside shot of Budja. Outside shot of both Michel/Yos and they decided to play this absurdly obviously.

[Goatrevolt]

Oh, and whoever gets cop, don't use your ability right away. Considering you don't get results until the end of the day anyway, wait for the scum kill. Wait to ensure I shotty Vollkan in the face successfully, and then use it on someone who is still alive.

There is no downside to doing that.

[Goatrevolt]

Yeah, it should go without saying but I will say it anyway. Don't listen to Vollkan's lies.

[Goatrevolt]

Why do you think it so inconceivable that Goat could be scum?

As I told you, that would be absolutely, totally, and in all other ways inconceivable!

[Goatrevolt]

This is mafia. How often is someone objectively precluded from being scum?

Subjectively, though, it makes little sense that I'm scum:

1. The bus drive from day 1.
a. Confirmed Scot, the strongest power role as town.
b. Confirmed Ren Hoek, the player sitting at L-1 and a likely lynch as very likely town.
c. Caused the scum kill to fall on Seraphim, a suspicious and nonthreatening player, wasting its effectiveness.

2. I call you out when nobody else is pressuring you at all, and take the tracker role specifically because I think you're under the radar scum and want to test that theory.

3. I track you making the kill and claim it, setting myself up in a claim/counterclaim scenario. If I am scum, I'm a scum that everyone has as confirmed town. Why would I throw myself away to get you killed?

But yes, you're absolutely right...

objectively

I could be scum!

[Goatrevolt]

I think we have different definitions of the word "small".

Option A) There are more than 3 scum. Vigging me plus a scumkill would create a situation where scum auto-win. As such, you wouldn't actually be throwing yourself away at all - you'd just be capitalising on the gullibility of everybody else, including myself.

While 4 scum isn't out of the realm of possibilities, if this was the case, why would I even bother to try to figure out the best way to use the role, etc? If I'm scum who's going to simply auto-win by hitting you with a vig shot, then why go through the song and dance?

Option B) You cocked up badly. You were avoiding like the plague trying to name your fake "trackee" (me). If you could avoid naming the trackee, then when I died you could claim that the busdriver (Budja, who, given his highly suspected status, would be a viable sacrifice even if he is scum - though he needn't be for you to pull this strategy) was obviously scum. This would explain why you were so desperate to get the vig role initially (and I'd love to see how, in the QT, you persuade Budja to let you take vig) when, if you were town, it would clearly be optimal for you to take busdriver. You then claimed it was all "gambit" which is a pathetically easy bluff for scum to make in an effort to justify anything

I initially was "desperate" to get the vig role because you wanted Budja to have the vig role.

I took the vig role without discussing it with Budja.

The gambit was to let Budja have the vig role, not claim publicly who I had tracked in order to bait Budja into trying to kill me if he's scum, and then protect myself with the bus driver role. In that case, by killing me, the knowledge of who I tracked would die with me, giving him possible scum incentive to try it.

I decided against doing it because If Budja or the scum killed the player on the other end of my bus drive the information would have actually died with me. As I said earlier, it simply wasn't worth the risk.

EBWOP. To explain further why Option B) is viable. If there are 3 scum then the strategy in question would drop the situation from 7:3 (current) to 4:3 where, subject to the role distribution on D4, scum could pull a quick-kill before a lynch occurs and thereby win the game.

This argument assumes Budja is town and I am scum, yet your stance is that Budja is scum with me. I know it's troublesome to keep that stuff straight.

Anyway, I don't know why I'm even bothering to go back and forth here. This discussion will be made pointless in 2 days.

[Goatrevolt]

CKD: I tracked Vollkan-scum. Vollkan couldn't have tracked anyone because he's an account exec. Ren is just joking around.

[Goatrevolt]

We aren't lynching Yos today. Unvote.

So we leave the scum alive?

That sounds like a foolproof plan. I'm regretting submitting the kill on vollkan now. I wish I had known about the whole keeping the scum alive plan ahead of time.

[Goatrevolt]

Michel, I'll note that you aren't making sense for me in this, in a scummy way, because of the elaborateness of those scenarios you spinned and the inconsistency here. You have now said that
-you thought there were too relatively likely scenarios, in one of which Goat was scum and in both of which Ren was scum (although the one with both scum you earlier )
-you have said you do in no way mean to imply Goat is scum
-but because Goat seems definite town even to you now, your suspicions of Ren have lessened enormously.

So Ren scum doesn't imply Goat scum, but Goat town implies Ren town. That doesn't make sense.

I was wondering if anyone was going to point this out. I agree entirely here. He has constantly made sure to say "I still think Ren is scummy independent of goat" and "I'm not trying to throw suspicion on goat here" when he presents his arguments, but that's clearly shown to be insincere by how much his change in opinion of me affects his change in opinion on Ren.

----

I honestly want to call Ojanen town simply because her stances have pretty much reflected my opinions this entire game. She was the other person putting early pressure on Vollkan yesterday. Distancing, or real?

As for Michel/Yosarian, I think Yosarian has been more consistent and has played a much more pro-town game than Michel/Adel. My one caveat is that his defense of Adel has constantly felt over the top and it feels like he's stretching points or making points out to be stronger than they really are to call Adel town. That right there is the key. Does Yosarian honestly believe those arguments? If so, Michel is the scum. Is he faking those arguments? If so he's the scum.

[Goatrevolt]

Goat: Why are you assuming that either me or michel must be scum?

I'm not assuming it in a false-dichotomy kind of way. I don't think one of you two

has

to be scum, but you are the most suspicious players left in the game (well, after Vollkan), and yet I don't think you fit as scum together. By far the most likely scenario is that one of you two is scum.

Ojanen is town. This I am sure of. Vollkan has had a pretty consistent low level of suspicion for a long time now, both here and in the accounting thread, so the only way he'd be the one making the kill with a tracker in the mix is if both of his scummates were more heavily suspected. Thus, Yos/Michel.

I'll have to go back and check, but I think at the time I tracked him nobody was suspicious of him at all.

[Goatrevolt]

Ojanen, Yosarian, Michel, Sens. The only post I see looking at myself in isolation where I give a list of suspicions prior to the kill on TDC is my isolation post 33. Those are the 3 players I list as equal/more suspicious to Vollkan.

Honestly, though, I find these arguments to be too coincidental. They fail for the same reasons Michel's math post about why Ren was scum doesn't work. It assumes far too much about what the scum were thinking and assumes too much about what basis they used to determine who made the kill.

Our assumption is that the scum sat around, first determined that Yosarian or myself are likely to be the tracker, then researched who would be the best to submit the kill based on their guesses of who we suspected. What's to say that's what happened over say another theory that they just took a look at public opinion, saw that Vollkan was being completely ignored, and decided he would be the best to submit it. Or maybe Vollkan just decided to make the kill without a huge amount of thought behind it.

[Goatrevolt]

Booom!

Fun game .

[Goatrevolt]

I do think the setup was balanced in favor of the scum. How much so? I don't know. The plan to get me semi-confirmed off the bus drive put us in a really commanding position, and we used that to steer the rest of the game. Had that not happened, I'm not sure how it would have gone down. We were pretty much in control of this game the entire way through. We had great communication as well, which made things really smooth. Everything we did was very well choreographed.

The way the last day played out was completely just off the cuff. We had discussed and come to an agreement on going for the fake tracker claim, but once I saw vig, it made things more interesting (and also easier).

I think 20% is far too low of a town win chance. I'd say maybe 65/35% scum wins. I think 3 scum would have had their work cut out for them though. I think 3 scum would be unbalanced in the town's favor at probably about the same ratio.

Maybe make it a 15 player game, add in a townie somewhere (possibly another unique position like Creative Director or CEO with a minor level of power) and it would probably be a balanced game. I think people would expect 4 scum in a 15 player game.

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Korts the only thing I didn't like about the game was that you allowed people to post screenshots of their private quick topics. Yosarian and I had to spend time faking a quick topic for that purpose, which felt unnecessary. It's kind of a minor thing, but it was annoying.

Other than that, I thought it was well designed/well run. The flavor was excellent, and the interlocked design aspects were combined very well. If it was run again, I would sign up.

[Goatrevolt]

Scum QT:

http://www.quicktopic.com/43/H/u7jHd8WNzaY

Me and Budja the last day:

http://www.quicktopic.com/43/H/6fvveUSDx5Mx6

You've already seen all of my QT with Yosarian.

[Goatrevolt]

thanks for the nom....glad to be part of such a good team...I think everyone played their part well and everyone equally put in ideas.

This. I couldn't have asked for a better team to be a part of.

I appreciate the nominations.

[Goatrevolt]

Honestly, I don't think anyone played a truly bad game. The only exception really, and I don't mean this offensively, was Sens simply because of the severe lurking making him an easy lynch. Ojanen you were an easy mislynch I had set up based on Crywolf, but then your play was simply too pro-town so I reversed that idea. You didn't correctly peg us all, but you played well enough to establish yourself as pro-town to the majority of the game.

OGML, you were the biggest threat in the game to us. You had Yosarian pegged and later Vollkan. 2/3 isn't bad at all. You were playing a pretty strong game. We regretted not killing you day 2.

If you read the scum quick topic, you will see that I was nervous about doing the "I claim a fake track result on Ojanen" plan simply because I knew both Ojanen and MSH wouldn't buy into it (well, Ojanen because she would know I was lying). I was worried that you would be able to go back into the thread and nail me over something and the whole stronghold we scum had built would crumble to dust.

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This game right here is pure proof that coordinated scum win games, and proof of how good day talking is if used well. This is two games in a row that I've won as scum where we made excellent use of day talking to coordinate plans and team up to accomplish goals. I am going to link to this game every time I'm in a scum group with someone who says something like "I like to play solo as scum."

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Here's some theory: I think the town would have been better off by choosing Tracker, Tracker, Roleblocker day 1. Thoughts?

[Goatrevolt]

We aren't lynching Yos today. Unvote.

So we leave the scum alive?

That sounds like a foolproof plan.

Just wanted to quote this post. I found it funny at the time .

@Adel: Agreed. Ren's self-vote was bad too. I had forgotten about that.