Advertising Mafia - Over, see 1183

[Korts]

(3) SensFan- Budja, Goatrevolt, Ojanen

(1) Yosarian2- OhGodMyLife
(1) MichelSableheart- curiouskarmadog
(1) Ren Hoek- MichelSableheart
(1) curiouskarmadog- Yosarian2

not voting:

vollkan, SensFan, scotmany12, Ren Hoek

6 to lynch

Deadline is 6 PM EST August 22.

[vollkan]

To the willing to vote list: my top 2 considerations are Sens and vollkan.

Because?

I kind of see what you mean about Adel laying back on day 1, but it seemed more like an information gathering stratagy then anything with anti-town motives to me.

I'm beginning to form the impression that it may well just be a consequence of people not liking Adel's playstyle combined with (as reflected in some of the comments I rebutted) a gut-based suspicion arising from the FL lynch result. Adel is hard to read at the best of times, let alone when he is giving extra attention to game-theory.

[OhGodMyLife]

Vollkan is skyrocketing from "mildly suspicious" to "pretty much a lock for 3rd member of the Michel-Yos scumteam"

[Budja]

Sure, but he was scum in that game. Know whaddamean? He did something similar here, asking a bunch of lurkers to voice their opinions on Adel's leading suspects.

It still doesn't seem scum-motivated to me. From Adel's play I would guess it would be usual behaviour regardless of alignment.[/quote]

Looking at the beginning of the Adel and Yos wagons, I'm mainly getting stronger confirmed in my suspicions against Ren. The wagon there builds up too much speed too fast for me to believe there is no scum there.

What about the speed of Ren initial wagon?
Ren's play seems pretty consistant here. As you said, he had earlier suspicions and hopping onto the wagon seems like exactly what he would do.

[Goatrevolt]

Vollkan is skyrocketing from "mildly suspicious" to "pretty much a lock for 3rd member of the Michel-Yos scumteam"

I don't think Adel/Yosarian are scum together. Yosarian is tying himself far too neatly to Adel for them to be a scum pair. He's quite frankly begging us to lynch him next if Adel is scum, and I don't see Yosarian making that play as a scum buddy.

If Vollkan/Yosarian are indeed scum, their interactions with Sens are much more scum-scum than interactions with Adel. They both were on his case day 1 (although both of them had their votes on Ren, if I recall correctly) and now today they have gone after other pursuits (Budja, CKD).

I'm fairly certain SensFan is scum, and the inability to get him lynched despite the overwhelming spoken support of his lynch means there are a few scum buddies out there hoping to avoid having to bus quite yet. Vollkan/Yosarian are the two likeliest culprits here.

[Ren Hoek]

Let's get this show on the road.

vote: SensFan

[scotmany12]

SensFan, you are constantly posting elsewhere around the site. We will lynch you if you do not start doing something.

[Ren Hoek]

SensFan, you are constantly posting elsewhere around the site. We will lynch you if you do not start doing something.

I have a strong feeling he's scum that's given up for shame of having been found early, or being bussed. Maybe he doesn't want to do or say more, in fear of giving away his buddies in the process of being lynched.

[Ojanen]

To the willing to vote list: my top 2 considerations are Sens and vollkan.

Because?

I'm pretty sure I've already written about the matter. But I can elaborate.

The people I've mostly considered voting for today are Sensfan, you, Budja, Yos, Adel/MSH.
(The list is a process of elimination from first substracting Goat, scot and Ren [I'm not finding the suicidal Ren theory particularly likely]. Ckd and OMGL I've had a gut townread on since my catchup [has to do mostly with this certain initiative thing I feel to get reads and some aspects of the Adel case], although I'm planning to finecomb-evaluate the pair again soon.)

Yos
I don't have much aside from uncertainty on him. I have a vague, mildly scummy feeling from him but nothing I can really pin down.
His early day 1 contributions seemed somewhat absentminded, because he was bringing up things that seemed like he hadn't thought Adel's plan through before talking (like suggesting making PGO public).
I disagree with him about a bunch of things, some of the opinions around his Adel stance make me uneasy (like stating that Adel's f u Sens vote was probably a measured, reasonable action).

That's bad logic, CKD. IF you think Sensfan is town (and it sounds like you do, from the rest of your post), then Adel defending him has to be considered a pro-town act. Now, if Sensfan is scum, then Adel defending sensfan is definatly a big point against him. But I hate the "X defended Y, and Y was town, so X must have been scum!" argument you seem to be going for here. If a pro-town town person thinks someone else is town, they bloody well should defend them.

I thought this was simplistic from Yos. Defending someone pro-town is good for town, but there's also a scum motive for towncred there. Everything is based on nuances and honest seeming thought processes. Adel recently used his defence of a flipped townie as a reason why he's obviously town in another game where he was scum (Tofu mafia). It's not that simple.
@ Yos: why doesn't Adel's quicklynch on FL seem like a scum gambit to you? Does the action seem townish or null to you?

Budja.
His contribution has been lowish.
His vote on FL I see as nulltell because the wagon kinda had to be completed once Adel was drumming it so hard. The flip flop of finding FL scummy in that vote post is suspicious to an extent. Otherwise I have neutral read on him with some honest vibes.
I disagree though with what scot was saying about the extent to which TDC's kill makes him unlikely scum. There was momentum mainly on creative department lynches at the time of the kill. If two were broken during the day, new pairing tomorrow didn't seem unlikely.

Adel. I just don't know. Not feeling being able to read him. Contributed quite a lot and I think I can kinda see his line of thinking behind cases now. Got FL quicklynched on what I thought was iffy reasoning, defended Sens based on what I thought was iffy reasoning (also, simultaneously posting up that quicktopic which is a clear point against Sens and defending him strongly from getting lynched somehow doesn't jive that well together). MSH, although I disagree with him on many things, has at least been insistent with an unpopular case. Slight townievibe for that, unless scum is really in the corner.

Ha, I didn't get to the core of the original question yet except with process of elimination stuff.
Second post coming in a bit; gotta go for now.

[Yosarian2]

Yos
I don't have much aside from uncertainty on him. I have a vague, mildly scummy feeling from him but nothing I can really pin down.
His early day 1 contributions seemed somewhat absentminded, because he was bringing up things that seemed like he hadn't thought Adel's plan through before talking (like suggesting making PGO public).

Eh? What was wrong with that suggestion? If we had done that, we might have had the scum get re-directed into the PGO when the scum tried to kill scot on day 1.

I disagree with him about a bunch of things, some of the opinions around his Adel stance make me uneasy (like stating that Adel's f u Sens vote was probably a measured, reasonable action).

I don't know if it was measured or thought through. It was a reasonable vote, though, and it made sense to me.

That's bad logic, CKD. IF you think Sensfan is town (and it sounds like you do, from the rest of your post), then Adel defending him has to be considered a pro-town act. Now, if Sensfan is scum, then Adel defending sensfan is definatly a big point against him. But I hate the "X defended Y, and Y was town, so X must have been scum!" argument you seem to be going for here. If a pro-town town person thinks someone else is town, they bloody well should defend them.

I thought this was simplistic from Yos. Defending someone pro-town is good for town, but there's also a scum motive for towncred there. Everything is based on nuances and honest seeming thought processes.

Well, obviously. But people get so caught up in WIFOM thinking they forget the obvious. The truth is, if someone votes scum, that's a pro-town tell, and if someone defends town, that's also a pro-town tell.

I think CKD's thoughts about Sensfan, and CKD's thoughts about what Adel said about Senfan, basically contradicted each other there in that post.

@ Yos: why doesn't Adel's quicklynch on FL seem like a scum gambit to you? Does the action seem townish or null to you?

Eh. I doubt it'd be a scum gambit. Adel was in a very strong position at that point; basically everyone thought he was town. To risk that all, just to try to speedlynch one town player on day 1, and the one with the most usless role in the game?

I'd say it seems null to me. Adel had what seemed like good reasons for it.

Honestly, if you think someone is likely to be a scum with a day action, speedlynching them when they're not on before they get a chance to use it is probably the correct move; I've attempted that with people I thought were scum daykillers in the past, for example.

[Goatrevolt]

SensFan, you are constantly posting elsewhere around the site. We will lynch you if you do not start doing something.

Seriously. Inactivity due to problems outside your control is one thing. Avoidance of this game while being active on site is another.

[Ojanen]

Eh? What was wrong with that suggestion? If we had done that, we might have had the scum get re-directed into the PGO when the scum tried to kill scot on day 1.

How can you claim Adel's plan is a big townish point for him if you still haven't thought it true? PGO identified fails to protect creative teams, fails to protect tracker partner. Scum would never have tried to kill scot if PGO was public but Adel's plan made sure it was futile too.

I disagree with him about a bunch of things, some of the opinions around his Adel stance make me uneasy (like stating that Adel's f u Sens vote was probably a measured, reasonable action).

I don't know if it was measured or thought through. It was a reasonable vote, though, and it made sense to me.

Did also Adel's previous stance of Sens-town make sense to you?

Well, obviously. But people get so caught up in WIFOM thinking they forget the obvious. The truth is, if someone votes scum, that's a pro-town tell, and if someone defends town, that's also a pro-town tell.

Without looking somewhat more thoroughly at the manner of those actions they are crude beyond use as tells imo.

[OhGodMyLife]

The irony of Sens being the most recent post in the MD thread Lurking's Not a Scumtell is not lost on me.

I've come around to the idea of him being the scum in the Sens/Michel pair. I agree with previous statements made regarding Sens-Yos making good sense.

Unvote, Vote: Sens

[Yosarian2]

How can you claim Adel's plan is a big townish point for him if you still haven't thought it true?

Um, no. Adel's plan was a better pro-town plan then any that had been suggested up to that point.

The fact that I then took that and brainstormed some other options is irrelevent to the fact that Adel's plan was quite reasonable at the time.

PGO identified fails to protect creative teams, fails to protect tracker partner. Scum would never have tried to kill scot if PGO was public but Adel's plan made sure it was futile too.

Well, no, because under my plan, the bus driver could also have protected both Scot and the tracker. But that's not really important now anyway.

I don't really get what you're arguing, anyway. People were attacking Adel on the grounds that all the game-theory-stuff he was doing early day 1 were scummy, and that's just bunk; it was quite pro-town.

I don't know if it was measured or thought through. It was a reasonable vote, though, and it made sense to me.

Did also Adel's previous stance of Sens-town make sense to you?

I don't fully understand it, no.

Well, obviously. But people get so caught up in WIFOM thinking they forget the obvious. The truth is, if someone votes scum, that's a pro-town tell, and if someone defends town, that's also a pro-town tell.

Without looking somewhat more thoroughly at the manner of those actions they are crude beyond use as tells imo.

I don't think that's true. I think, on some level, if someone acts in a way that increses the chance of a town win, it raises their odds of being town, at least a little, and if someone acts in a way that increases the chances of a scum win, it increases their chances of being scum, at least a little. "Tells" isn't really a word I would use for that, but it's true nonetheless.

You have to actually look at the effect of people's actions, not just guess at their motives.

[Yosarian2]

The irony of Sens being the most recent post in the MD thread Lurking's Not a Scumtell is not lost on me.

Also, yes. Sensfan needs to stop lurking and get in here and post some content, or we will lynch him.

I agree with previous statements made regarding Sens-Yos making good sense.

Excuse me? How is that, exactly?

[scotmany12]

Sens, you are at lynch -1. Talk now or I will hammer you either tonight or tomorrow. And if you do say something, but your contribution is lackluster, then I'll still hammer you.

[MichelSableheart]

Sure, but he was scum in that game. Know whaddamean? He did something similar here, asking a bunch of lurkers to voice their opinions on Adel's leading suspects.

I'm sorry, but I don't know what you mean. Asking lurkers their opinions on specific people seems something entirely different then asking people in general for meta information.

Hey MSH.

Change the variable of my alignment in your equations for the constant "townie."

Who is now scum and why?

So, let's assume you are town. In that case:

• There are likely 3 scum, based on the fact that 3 scum tends to be balanced for 12 players with a considerable amount of town power.
• Killing scotmany was likely a scum mistake, as the chance of being redirected to useless townmembers (seraphim, Ren Hoek) would be too high for scum, and I can't see any benefit for the scum in that case.
• Goatrevolt would be town, because the Seraphim kill would make no sense at all for goat scum.
• Scotmany would be town, seeing that scum tried to kill him. NOTE: A goatrevolt-scotmany pairing would be a possibility, but one I consider extremely unlikely.
• Exactly one out of CKD/OGML is scum, or noone with access to the accounts quicktopic is scum. The attack against Adel/Me was very agressive, and relatively broadly supported in the accounts thread. If both CKD and OGML were town, it is my belief that a scum member would have shown serious support for the case. It is unlikely that CKD and OGML are both scum, as scum like to keep a certain distance from each other. CKD is the more likely scum from the two, for blatantly supporting the Adel wagon but only out of sight.

I would feel certain about the above conclusions. What's below is extremely speculative, as we are now getting to parts of the thread I haven't studied in detail.

• Yosarian2 is likely town for his Adel defense. Buddying isn't going to do a scum much good if it means you'll upset the rest of the town against you.
• Ojanen would be likely town, as she seems to actually be thinking about this game and looking for scum, rather then taking the more simple (lazy) option of going along with the general opinion of the town.
• That leaves Vollkan, Budja and SensFan. Out of these three, I believe Vollkan is most likely to think the possible scenario's in case of a scotmany killattempt through. This makes him the most likely town out of these three.

Concluding: Based on my current reads, I would say that CKD, Budja and SensFan are the most likely scumteam. This conclusion is not at all well researched though.

---

Your theory isn't simply thinking things through. You believe the scum went through every single scenario, which given the amount of scenarios possible, is unlikely.

A simple "based on Adel's plan, scotmany is the most likely bus target, with probably Seraphim or Ren Hoek at the other side." would cover most of what I was saying. Just looking at the results of those three deaths would be enough for scum to determine if they wanted a scotmany kill or not.

Once again, you assume what the scum believe is similar to your percentages. There is absolutely no proof to that, and scum could have believed something totally different.

When determining what was likely to happen, the scum would have looked at what Adel's plan suggested. Based on Adel's plan:

1. The busdriver would protect either the CD or (less likely, because the role is less important) the CEO.
2. The other target for the busdrive would almost certainly be an account executive.
3. With those account executives under the most suspicion being the most likely targets.
4. From the account executives, Ren Hoek and Seraphim were the most suspicious.

Do you agree with the above four points?
If you don't, where do you differ from opinion?
And if you do agree, how could the scum possibly arive at percentages that are radically different from what I suggested? Please give me a set of percentages that fulfill the above requirements and that are so different from what I suggested that they produce significantly different results in the calculations I made.

The fourth one relies solely on the third one, which there is no proof too. Ren's self vote could have changed everything, I was personally getting caught up at that point, and other people were trying to pursue other lynches. While this isn't necessarily a bad assumption, a lot lies on it, and a lot lies on the scum believing that Ren was about to be lynched.

I agree that a lot of my case hinges on that assumption. If you disagree with that assumption, you will probably also disagree with my case.

---
OGML, can you please explain to me (or show me were you explained) why you believe Ren Hoek and Goatrevolt absolutely aren't scum together? Because as far as I can see, you have ignored that possibility completely.

---

What about the speed of Ren initial wagon?

The initial wagon against Ren began on page 2 of the game thread, with the discussion between him, Seraphim and scotmany, and was lingering throughout the first 11 pages of the game, even though noone could vote at that time.

Ren's play seems pretty consistant here. As you said, he had earlier suspicions and hopping onto the wagon seems like exactly what he would do.

It's not inconsistency that's bothering me. It's that he's all "I'm in favour of an Adel lynch" without actually contributing arguments, when the others have only expressed (strong) suspicion.

---
I agree that SensFan must start to contribute. If a hammer has to be threatened for that, so be it.

Sens, you are at lynch -1. Talk now or I will hammer you either tonight or tomorrow. And if you do say something, but your contribution is lackluster, then I'll still hammer you.

if Sensfan has posted on the site, but not in this thread next time I log in (tomorrow) I will place the hammer personally. If he has posted in this thread, I expect to see a post with content, and will hammer if such a post hasn't appeared when I'm about to log out.

[MichelSableheart]

On second thought, that is quite a long post. To make sure he won't miss it:

@SensFan

I agree that SensFan must start to contribute. If a hammer has to be threatened for that, so be it.

Sens, you are at lynch -1. Talk now or I will hammer you either tonight or tomorrow. And if you do say something, but your contribution is lackluster, then I'll still hammer you.

if Sensfan has posted on the site, but not in this thread next time I log in (tomorrow) I will place the hammer personally. If he has posted in this thread, I expect to see a post with content, and will hammer if such a post hasn't appeared when I'm about to log out.

[Ren Hoek]

I think MSH is honest.

My own theory is that all the players whom a townie might consider for bus driving purposes were townies, making it safe for the scum to target scotmany.

I agree that it's pretty short sighted, and that a player like vollkan would have thought of something better.

[Ojanen]

How can you claim Adel's plan is a big townish point for him if you still haven't thought it

true

?

Um, no. Adel's plan was a better pro-town plan then any that had been suggested up to that point.
The fact that I then took that and brainstormed some other options is irrelevent to the fact that Adel's plan was quite reasonable at the time.

PGO identified fails to protect creative teams, fails to protect tracker partner. Scum would never have tried to kill scot if PGO was public but Adel's plan made sure it was futile too.

Well, no, because under my plan, the bus driver could also have protected both Scot and the tracker. But that's not really important now anyway.
I don't really get what you're arguing, anyway. People were attacking Adel on the grounds that all the game-theory-stuff he was doing early day 1 were scummy, and that's just bunk; it was quite pro-town.

This was a weird weird response until I noticed I spelled true where I meant through in the bolded part of the original question. Haven't got native English, I sometimes miscommunicate.
Anyway, to the end: I mentioned you seemed absentminded in the first choosing abilities phase and gave an example with the PGO.
You asked what was wrong with it.
I explained, and misspelled through. (I maintain my conception of you not having thought the plan through. Busdriver couldn't have protected tracker unless tracker was public too in your suggestion. Plus busdriver scum is really bad.)
That's what this tangent was about. I'm not arguing at all that Adel's early game theory stuff was scummy.

Well, obviously. But people get so caught up in WIFOM thinking they forget the obvious. The truth is, if someone votes scum, that's a pro-town tell, and if someone defends town, that's also a pro-town tell.

Without looking somewhat more thoroughly at the manner of those actions they are crude beyond use as tells imo.

I don't think that's true. I think, on some level, if someone acts in a way that increses the chance of a town win, it raises their odds of being town, at least a little, and if someone acts in a way that increases the chances of a scum win, it increases their chances of being scum, at least a little. "Tells" isn't really a word I would use for that, but it's true nonetheless.
You have to actually look at the effect of people's actions, not just guess at their motives.

I think talking about things on a super general level isn't terribly fruitful.
In practice, and relevantly to our situation at hand, when we look at how people defend and attack each other, there exist clear signs of alarm even when the attack is against scum or defence for a townie. A strange late-wagon change of mind or a tentative suspicion implying fencesit when asked for opinion about someone who later flips scum are almost clichés. Or when someone doesn't make sense in why they strongly defend another player, like this:

Did also Adel's previous stance of Sens-town make sense to you?

I don't fully understand it, no.

MSH, however, is increasingly giving me kinda honest vibes.
---

I wasn't crazy about OMGL's vote on Sens.

I guess I'll mention here that despite having gotten townish vibes from his degree of initiative, I felt iffy when he said this in accounting quicktopic:

I think now is a good time for the entire accounting department to come together in lynching Yos.

Because a good time for neglecting independent thought for group think is about never.
---

I still need to write up stuff about sens and vollkan in my answer to vollkan. I'll try to get to it soon.

[OhGodMyLife]

Because a good time for neglecting independent thought for group think is about never.

We obviously disagree on a very basic level about some things. I think there is a time for everyone to be doing their own thing, and a time for everyone to come together and provide some real momentum. The accounting quicktopic is (was) a powerful tool to organize that momentum before it became public fodder.

And speaking of momentum, thats what this game needs very badly right now, and part of what I'm hoping my Sens vote will give it. The other part is a scum lynch.

OGML, can you please explain to me (or show me were you explained) why you believe Ren Hoek and Goatrevolt absolutely aren't scum together? Because as far as I can see, you have ignored that possibility completely.

It seems wildly outlandish, and I am confident enough in Ren's alignment for reasons completely separate from the mechanical aspects of the bus drive / sera kill that I can safely ignore the possibility.

[Ojanen]

@OGML: I guess I can kinda see where you're coming from with that.

[vollkan]

Vollkan is skyrocketing from "mildly suspicious" to "pretty much a lock for 3rd member of the Michel-Yos scumteam"

Because I don't agree with the cases against them?

@Ojanen: Going to get around to answering the heart of my question?

[Yosarian2]

Plus busdriver scum is really bad.

That much is likely true, which, as I said at the time, why I ended up dropping my plan in favor of Adel's.

Other then that risk, though, I don't think my plan was nearly a bad as you seem to be assuming. We'll let that go, though.

Or when someone doesn't make sense in why they strongly defend another player, like this:

Did also Adel's previous stance of Sens-town make sense to you?

I don't fully understand it, no.

MSH, however, is increasingly giving me kinda honest vibes.

The thing is, if someone says "I have a meta that X usually acts like this as town", I don't necessarally expect to fully understand it; I take note of it, and reference it later once I know X's alignment.

Anyway, this discussion is becoming pointless.

I wasn't crazy about OMGL's vote on Sens.

Why?

Sens looked scummy and unhelpful on day 1, and he currently seems to be lurking delibratly in this thread. I don't have a problem with that vote. If Sens dosn't come back in here and start contibuting some real content soon, I'd be willing to hammer him myself if needed.

[OhGodMyLife]

Vollkan is skyrocketing from "mildly suspicious" to "pretty much a lock for 3rd member of the Michel-Yos scumteam"

Because I don't agree with the cases against them?

Because of the way you presented your disagreement