Mafia 22: Singled Out - Game over!

[Thoth]

I have to agree with the majority here. JDTAY's argument is based on the assumption that dourgim knew of Herbert's absence somehow. And even if that assumption is true, the remaining argument is still not very strong.

I'll go and

vote:Popsiclestix

Voting for someone that seems to have an investigative role is not in the town's interest.

[Thoth]

Fish, if PopsicleStix is dropping hints that his post isn't random, maybe it's becuase he's a cop?

FOS: Thoth

unless I'm misreading Stix.

Wow, just let me get this straight. First Fishbulb says that PopsicleStix votes me because I voted for PopsicleStix. Now you explain this as 'Ah, pops is dropping hints that his vote is not random, maybe he's a cop'.
I hate to use the words 'crap logic' in a game with IS, but to me this sounds like a genuine example.

Why's he trying to unvote in his very first entry? Did he think we'd be fooled if he pretended he'd posted already?

<---- was fooled

I for one did not check back to see whether he voted already. It's strange enough though that I'm happy to hop along:

unvote: PopsicleStix
vote:Dragonmaster

[Thoth]

UNVOTE: DRagonmaster
Vote: BananaBob

How exactly did Popsicle get modkilled and not BananaBob?

I assume his role PM did not specifically forbid him to claim.... opposite to pops' PM (which looks like it was written by Macros )

[Thoth]

I'll keep my vote on dragonmaster for now. I could not find a flaw in MeMe's reasoning in post 129.

[Thoth]

I would guess mulitple psychopaths are part of one group. 2 SK's with the same name seems unlikely to me. It's even possible that Yoko is playing around with us and makes the mafia a group of Psychopaths and a lone mafia as a SK. Enough possibilities which are all useful to discuss.
It does not seem to be productive to me to look at the names and look them up in the role section though. I don't think there are a lot of mods that even use the role section, let alone copy roles exactly from it.

At this time I'm mostly suspicious of JDTAY. A strange vote on MeMe today for pointing out SO's strange assumption. Using an OMGUS-vote for the lynching vote (eventhough I agree with the lynch I prefer that people casting the lynching vote also agree with the logic behind the lynching and not use the 'he votes me, I'll lynch him argument) and his weird early attack on Dourgrim.

vote:JDTAY

I don't agree with MeMe that a cop likely investigated him last night. The one cop we have out in the open at least did not, looking at his vote.

[Thoth]

This argument is one that you can always take both ways:
1. It's attractive for scum to hop on as there's good reason behind the wagon, giving a good excuse for being on it even if the target turns up innocent.
2. It's attractive for scum not to hop on as the wagon already has momentum, so it may lead to an innocent's lynch while not being on the wagon yourself allowing you to point fingers at others.

After there are several wrong lynches I usually compare the bandwagons and look more suspiciously at the players that were either on all wagons or on none.
Of course this argument only becomes really interesting once we know whether or not JDTAY is innocent or not. So far I'm not convinced. Since I've played as Mafia with CS in Xmas Story I'm not buying the 'scum would not behave like that' argument anymore.


About BB looking for gangsters: If he's a cop that only finds scum of 1 group it does indeed mean we cannot fully trust his innocent results. But as we already have 2 dead scum of a different group the odds of his innocent results being correct go up a lot.

Im happy to start seeing posts from the less infrequent posters.

So you did not see the posts of the frequent posters up till now.

[Thoth]

unvote:JDTAY

Eventhough I'm not yet really happy with his roleclaim. He did not really claim, but does have a huge amount of information that I find strange for 1 role to get. The amount of different scum groups, exact numbers of some of them and knowledge of their kill methods.
I don't want to risk lynching a role that gets that kind of information though. If things turn out to be different than he says we can always look at him again.

[Thoth]

Hmm, my previous post got blocked by an SQLerror. Let's see if I can say the same thing again.

To me it does not look like Fishbulb was in league with IS. There's no way an experienced player would defend him at that point if he was in league with him. The 'I'd never be that stupid' is one that usually does not work as the following day you were quite often already investigated by a cop, because of it. That having said:Wasn't BB some kind of cop? Is your vote based on an investigation result BB?

I have to read the first 2 days again as it's about 4 weeks ago since I was last in this thread. Just read day 3, but that did not produce a lot of interesting things. The first 2 days should have some clue though, as we've now finally lynched scum that looks like he was part of a group.

[Thoth]

That sounds like crap to me djinn. IS had already claimed at that time. This sounds to me like preparing the way for an excuse to join the Fishbulb wagon later on.

vote:indentureddjinn

[Thoth]

I think Otaku's claim seems very good. It's not a common thing for a mod to let a cop return to the game.
I'm quite happy with my vote for now. Voting someone in the post after which he claimed cop requires a bit more explanation than id has given.

[Thoth]

Well, the main person that we're waiting for is ID. He has the most votes and has to answer BB's question. My vote is already on him. There's not a lot I have to add until he responds.

[Thoth]

I think what he means is that he could choose one of the dead characters that night and come back as that person. Seems reasonable that he chose himself figuring he's a cop.

[Thoth]

I agree on that with massive. When we have enough innocents it's better to reveal them. Especially as there is a large chance of redundant investigations otherwise.

[Thoth]

It's certainly a possibility. We have 2 steak results who were both innocent and 2 non-steak results, both of which were scum.

[Thoth]

I find it pretty convincing. He's certainly the reporter or he could just have claimed scum.
I'll need to read back a bit to catch up. That will probably happen tomorrow.

[Thoth]

Hmm, I've skimmed over the thread again. No time for a full read. It's difficult to find a good target though. Most of the really active and/or suspicious players are either dead or cleared in some way.

[Thoth]

Sorry for not posting for a while. With me, my wife and my child alternating being sick I had very little time to post at all.

I'm not really sure what to make of the current situation. I think massive had a few good points against BB. Next to that the lonely and unpopular youngster would be a prototype for a SK. The main problem with this theory to me is though that I find it very unlikely that we have another SK left. Add to that the fact that IS tried to kill BB makes me believe that BB is not scum.

So far this game I've not found massive really suspicious IIRC. His role seems a bit weird to me, but that may be because I'm not really sure how it works. How are these percentages determined?

I think I should read through the previous days again to give a better analysis.

[Thoth]

I agree on that Fuldu. Way too many investigative roles. Either one or more of them is lying or there is a catch somewhere to at least one of the roles.
Do you know how you were scared of SO. Was it caused by Morpheus somehow or is it possible that someone roleblocked you?

[Thoth]

It may be a good idea if the remaining unclaimed players claim. The main reason not to have a mass claim (although mass may be a big word for only 4 players) is that it gives the Mafia easy targets to pick from. However all claimed roles we have now are information roles, so it looks like they already have enough good targets to pick from. Next to that there are a few roles that you don't want to reveal (from the top of my head those would be Doc, Vig and Mason), but looking at the dead (2 docs and a vig, no masons) I don't think we have any of those roles left.

I definitively want to claim myself at the latest when we have only 6 players left. My 'ability' can be easily and safely proven, but the safe part is gone when we've reached an endgame with 3 or 4 players.

[Thoth]

Yes, maybe you're right Fuldu. I just looked at the front post and noticed 2 docs and a vig among the dead, thinking that would be about the max.

Nanook: What do you mean with 'you wanting all to come out and claim now, but save yourself for later seems a bit suspicious'? I proposed a mass claim, but in case that we decide not to do that I'm still going to claim relatively soon. At least no later than with 6 players left.
Revealing roles that are just as important as the rest does not matter. That does not give the Mafia any more attractive targets. The danger would be revealing roles that are more important than the rest. I thought that risk would be rather low, but as Fuldu pointed out there's a good chance that we have a doc left, so it's probably not that good an idea.


Also could we maybe get a mod prod for Jolle and Morpheus. Jolle last posted 11 days ago and Morpheus' last post was in July.

[Thoth]

I think Nanook did the right thing day 4. There's no need to come out right away as long as you come out before someone else gets lynched. Next to that he immediately jumped on when Fishbulb and I voted for ID.
What I find strange though is that JereIC got a gun result Night 1 on Dragonmaster, but put a random vote on Morpheus. Next to that when there was a bandwagon on Dragonmaster during that day he still did not add his vote, only saying that he may vote him later that evening, but never came back online during that day.

I agree completely that there are too many info roles. Either some of them do not get correct info from the mod or someone is lying.

[Thoth]

It looks like Jolle has just disappeared. In the other game we're both in (Nedermafia) he's not posted in weeks as well.

[Thoth]

Sorry for not posting for a while. I've been sick for the last few days (stil not fully recovered) and have not accessed the site much.

I think I'm the only one that has not roleclaimed yet. With vikingfan being close to a lynch lynch it seems to be the right time to do so now. (Btw I think it's 11 alive and 6 to lynch. That's also what's said in the last night scene, but not in the vote count).

I'm a priest, which means I'm basically a regular townie, but I cannot cast the final vote during the day. Best way to test it would be to let vikingfan get one away from lynch (after the mod confirms whether it's 5 or 6 to lynch just to make sure) and then let me put up the next one which should not count.

I'm not sure whether we should lynch him. If his role is as it says on the website we might be able to test it by just letting him create an item tonight and let him give it to someone.

[Thoth]

What kind of reason for a lynch is that? Let's just lynch a townie (with a testable disability no less) instead of someone suspicious. That will really help the town.

I think both viking and Thoth are rather suspicious atm.

Then please tell me why I'm suspicious? Because I have no night action? Yoko clearly took most if not all of his roles from the role section on this site. And because I'm the unlucky one with not night action I should be lynched? That's just complete bullshit.

We don't really lose anything beyond a person if he's telling the truth

Not really, just another townie and another day in which we don't lynch scum, plus another night in which we lose another townie.

Maybe you could just look at my posts instead of focusing on the lack of a night ability. I was for instance the one starting the bandwagon on ID and one of the players to keep his vote on him to get him deadline lynched. If I was in league with him I could just have unvoted shortly before the deadline (like BB did) and he would not have been lynched.

[Thoth]

Anyway, for all the reasons already listed,

And those reason are? I can still only find the no night ability and you just said you're not convinced by that one, yet you still vote me.

I'll follow Fuldu and vote + unvote myself to prove my priestness.

vote:Thoth
unvote:Thoth

[Thoth]

Hmmm, thinking about it now, maybe a no lynch for today would prove to be a good option. At least that way we'll have more time to compile information.

I think the main problem with a no lynch to get more info is that if we have a GF there is a good chance that we won't be able to get more info (unless we have a GF plus a regular Mafia left). Also in that case we don't want to miss a lynch as there are still a lot of players that could be a GF.

The GF possibility is also the main reason why I don't want to lynch vikingfan as he's one of the few roles that's able to prove himself tonight, opposite to some of the claimed investigative roles of which I still feel there are too many.

[Thoth]

I think it's between vikingfan and Thoth still, for me at least... True, Thoth did vote himself. But. Is Yoko counting self-votes? I recall reading a game where the mod didn't like people voting for themself. Also, who's to say the vote was counted, considering he unvoted in the same post? I'd feel more comfortable if the vote and the unvote were in two seperate posts, and a lot more comfortable still if Yoko posted in between them.

We can easily test for sure when we decide upon a lynch. Just let me cast the 6th vote again. I would expect Yoko to count self votes though as he made no mention of not doing it and the standard option is to count them.

[Thoth]

I basically feel the same as vikingfan about BB. I want to vote him for several reasons, but I just cannot think of any valid explanation for the attack on him by IS.
I'm mostly bothered by massive's results now that I've thought a bit more about it. It would be an extreme double-bluff if he was scum and claimed a role getting not a lot of results and then let the results he does get point towards the only player most think of as confirmed innocent. Therefore it feels as if his results are genuine, but that does not stroke with IS' attack.

[Thoth]

By my count your vote puts vikingfan on 4, so 2 away from lynch and we need one more vote on him to be able to test my ability again.
Let someone that wants to place that vote first count for himself though, as my quick counting after midnight could easily be off.

[Thoth]

vote:vikingfan

[Thoth]

I'm also leaning to vote BananaBob. I've only read the posts this day sofar, so I'll have to reread the rest of the thread just to make sure I don't miss anything.
From what I read and remember from earlier there are several things pointing towards BB and the only reason he has not been lynched is that he was attacked by IS. That is of course a good reason, but when other evidence is building up we have to consider that it could also have been caused by something weird in the reporter role or by whatever mechanic the mod build in.

[Thoth]

I was also thinking of a roleblocker. Noone claimed roleblocker though Afaik. Maybe someone is doing it without knowing.
Fuldu did you protect Nanook last night? I remember encountering roleblocking docs before.

[Thoth]

It was also tested again (in post 557) with the final vote on vikingfan just in case Yoko didn't count self votes.

[Thoth]

Pokemon cards for Peacebringer seem to be in line with his claim of little Johnny.
I'm afraid it's time again for a reread. with only the posts of a few people to watch it should not take that long. Of course I did the reread already several times in the previous days without getting anything conclusive.

[Thoth]

Repeated for my own convenience:

List of Claims:
Otaku376 (replacing Dourgrim) - Ghost (universal back up) taking over for Otaku376 the first
Thoth - Priest (unable to cast the lynching vote)
PeaceBringer (replacing Morpheus) - Searching Townie
NanooktheWolf - Gunsmith
SinisterOverlord - Burglar
Fuldu - Doctor
Massive - Forensic Scientist

Why was SO confirmed Peacebringer? It's probably somewhere, but I'm a bit too lazy now to look for it. Just from the claims it looks to me that PeaceBringer, Nanook and myself are innocent.

PS: I would also like to request a deadline extension.

[Thoth]

Wow, a pentuple post or whatever it's called .

The people that looked most innocent to me because of the semi-confirmed roleclaims are all dead now. Making it a really tough endgame. I'll try to read through the thread today, mainly looking at SO/massive posts and the bandwagons that we've had on the other mafia members.

[Thoth]

Ok, managed to go through most of the thread again. (Noticed that this game already lasts more than half a year).

There are a lot of things I noticed that point to one or the other. I'll just try to write them down here. I mostly ignored night results as it seems pretty certain that we have a GF left, so basically all night results are moot:

The ID lynch: SO was on the ID wagon and could have prevented his deadline lynch by jumping of before the deadline. Massive never was on it. Not only that, but he never even gave his opinion on it eventhough there were enough votes for a lynch and he posted close to the deadline.

In post 382 SO doubted Herbert West's claim which looked strange to me as it was about the one role we were sure to have in the game.

In post 513 SO attacked both of the roles that had a provable ability. I found that quite odd, but then massive joined him in post 515. Then massive kept insisting on lynching one of the 2 eventhough I still could not see a lot of reason for that (main reason upto then was that we were the last 2 to claim) and SO considered the possibility of waiting another night to let vikingfan prove himself. He counteracted that later on by casting the lynching vote on vikingfan.

One thing I saw that we skipped sofar in the discussion is that otaku blocked massive on a night in which massive claimed to have gotten a result. Otaku thought it was possibly caused by the mod-change, but I would assume that Dirge received all from Yoko (especially as they know each other IRL). Of course it's possible that something went wrong during the mod-change I cannot dismiss the possibility that something didn't.

Sofar I'm leaning towards massive, mainly because of the ID wagon and the roleblock. I'm not completely convinced yet though so I'd like to discuss this some more.

[Thoth]

I have to agree with massive that it's highly unlikely that SO is scum. The argument he gave in his post is a good one. Added to this that I was already leaning to massive (and the fact that if SO is scum he can just cast the winning vote now) I'll have to

vote:massive

SO, the problem here is this: If Thoth can't lynch either of us, exactly how are either of us supposed to win if the other is scum?

Did you not read my posts or are you intentionally trying to mislead? I cannot cast the lynching vote. I can cast any other vote and have it count. so as long as I vote first we can still lynch.

[Thoth]

And it's of course completely unthinkable that investigations on a GF show things the GF wants them to be seen.

[Thoth]

Hmm, clicked submit before I was finished. It certainly looks to me that investigation results are not the way to go by in a GF situation. Do you have any in-thread reasons why you would not be the GF massive? As I mentioned before there are several good reasons why massive would be scum, the main one for me the way he completely ignored the ID-wagon. Not only not joining it, but not even mentioning it.

[Thoth]

That's certainly possible. Were I the godfather, in fact, I'd expect to have any investigation against me fail. What I would not expect is that I would be given the ability to match the erratic results some investigator would get (chemicals and a crime-processing lab) with the proper role claim. Which I did, in thread, before SO's results were revealed.

That's not that strange. It's quite common for a GF to be told in his role how he will appear in investigations. Last DP game I played I (as a SK, not a GF) was even given the choice by DP as which historical figure I would appear to an investigator. Of course I build my whole game around behaving like that character and even tried to look suspicious enough that cops would investigate me so they could later clear me. This is just an example of which there are many more to be found around the site. What I try to say is that it is not so strange for an investigation to match an earlier roleclaim.

[Thoth]

AND the fact that I nailed BananaBob on day three and four and kept on him the entire game?

But why would you consider nailing a Mafia spy (ergo unknown to the rest of the Mafia) more important then nailing an actual Mafia member as I did with ID.

[Thoth]

Yes, priest was a pretty good ability to have. That was also the main reason why I tried to lead the town in the ID lynch as I thought that the combination of a provable ability + lynching a mafia member would keep a lot of players from voting me. (And ID was not really actively participating which probably would have gotten him lynched soon anyhow)
I didn't know we had a Spy. Checked back my PM's, but there's no mention of it, so I don't know whether we could somehow activate him.

Thanks for the game Yoko. And thanks Dirge for taking over. I enjoyed it a lot.