Mafia 22: Singled Out - Game over!

[Yoko Kurama]

I am withdrawing the previous deadline (I was away at my Brothers wedding when it deadlined no labtop) but if there isn't sufficient posting within the next couple days I will make a 24hr deadline.

[Banana Bob]

Hey nanook, how are ya feeling. Hope the accident wasn't too bad and good to have you back as well.

unvote: Morpheus

vote: massive[/b]

He's obviously not trying to make sense of what he's saying. His accusations IMO are flawed yet he's still going sticking to them. Also I ask a question and he doesn't even appear to try and answer.

I know my investigations tell me otherwise but right now he looks very scummy to me...

[Thoth]

Sorry for not posting for a while. With me, my wife and my child alternating being sick I had very little time to post at all.

I'm not really sure what to make of the current situation. I think massive had a few good points against BB. Next to that the lonely and unpopular youngster would be a prototype for a SK. The main problem with this theory to me is though that I find it very unlikely that we have another SK left. Add to that the fact that IS tried to kill BB makes me believe that BB is not scum.

So far this game I've not found massive really suspicious IIRC. His role seems a bit weird to me, but that may be because I'm not really sure how it works. How are these percentages determined?

I think I should read through the previous days again to give a better analysis.

[Fuldu]

That's a good point, Thoth. Reading the results massive gets, it immediately makes sense about how to interpret them. But how would the mod generate those numbers?

[Herbert West]

As there still seems to be some debate on the 'is there / isn't there a Godfather out there' - I'd like to draw your attention to Yoko's comment in post 270 :

Internet Stranger (Gangster/Mafia Hitman) has been hung. The town feels good about itself but then again he was only a grunt.

If he was 'only a grunt' then there must be a higher echelon out there to get.....

That said. What's the difference between a normal scum and a scum hitman?

And on a totally different matter, I too would like to know how Massive's percentages get calculated.

[Banana Bob]

from the way I see it, massive seems to have made up the role...you'd think that he'd get at least 2 names in 5 nights of investigation. I mean how likely is it that out of the many killing roles we've had he only gets me as a result ever...
I think that it's just a ploy to get me lynched by making up a role. Also can't you see that his reasoning to lynch me is flawed yet he still sticks to it. It seems too convenient to base your whole arguement on results that make no sense and also logic that I can easily break down.

[Herbert West]

I don't know what to make of it.

On one hand, he's provided what could be a plausible role claim (not that I've ever played a game with a forensic scientist (well. As a character anyway. I know more forensic pathologists than I care to admit to. They have great stories for parties) but on the other hand, his results are worse than useless.

If nothing else, if I recall my statistics courses from many, many years ago, the odds of BB having committed both murders are 20% of 65% = 13% (independant events, etc etc). Which is pretty unlikely. Plus the lack of other results is dodgy. Plus given the probabilities we've been given, a lynch of BB, who turns out to be genuine could easily be 'oh dear. Obviously the stats lied' etc etc.

I'm definately leaning towards massive=godfather again. Not sure enough to put a vote on yet though. I'd still like to hear from our returned wanderers.....

[Fuldu]

Well, your statistics is right, so far as it goes, HW, but you neglect an important point, which is that even if BB only committed one of the murders, we'd like to know that. On the assumption that massive's results are accurate (and the more I think about them, the less convinced I am), the odds of BB having committed one or more of the murders would be equal to 100% minus the odds of BB having committed neither of the murders.

The odds he didn't commit the first murder are 80% and the odds he didn't commit the second are 35%, so the odds he didn't commit either murder are 80% * 35% = 28%. That makes the odds that he committed one or more of the murders 72%.

Again, this is all assuming that massive isn't just making this stuff up.

[Herbert West]

Which, having looked over the list of kills, I think he is.

Night 2 (Massive didn't say which death he investigated - which I think is suspicious in itself), Otaku was Knifed and Quailman was bullet to the headed.

Night 4 Meme was the only victim - and bullet to the headed

Night 5 Fishbulb was the only victim - again, bullet to the headed

I think we can definitely assume from this that we only have one killer left operating - which we know to be mafia (if they've all been killed, that meant a mafia of two in a population of 23? very unlikely).

We know from IS's attempted murder of BB, that BB isn't mafia (as I'm fairly sure that wouldn't be allowed - quote from 'FAQ')

I'm in the Mafia, but I really don't like my family. Can I just get them all lynched?

The goal of the Mafia in a game is to win. Getting your family lynched as a joke or because you don't like them is against the spirit of the game.

We also have pretty good suspicions that there's a godfather out there.

And I may be on a bit of a limb, but I'm back to guessing it's Massive.

Vote : Massive

.

Again.

[Otaku376]

Massive's role claim seems weaker as it gets examined. I still don't like the fact that the reporter didn't see *anything* related to this, that out of 5 nights he has 2 results, that he we'd have to assume BB is some sort of extra killer, of which there lacks evidence.
The only thing is SinisterOverlord vouching for this roleclaim, albeit in some vague way. I would love if he just spilled it out in the open, it's not like the mafia don't already have 4 targets.

[massive]

I thought it would be pretty obvious that I would have selected Quailman's death (since it was pretty clear that Quailman killed Otaku, anyone could have gotten that from the death scene) ... it surprises me that Herbert West wouldn't have figured that out. But HW's really high on my suspicious list since not only is he trying to obfuscate my own bandwagon, but he's also giving BB practically every out he can without being called on it (like the hunt for "evidence" that I'm the godfather).

I'm also very disappointed in my results. I'd hoped to have something more concrete by night five. I suspect that the real godfather might have the ability to evade my role, much like he could evade a cop, and that's why I got nothing last night.

For the town: I think you're really being led like sheep here. You have investigative roles that haven't given you anything concrete to work with yet, and I think lynching the one role that can give you concrete information just isn't going to be helpful at all. Please remember when I'm dead that TWO people independently cleared me and you decided I had to be the Godfather.

[Banana Bob]

Massive, how can you say that YOU have concrete information when your results are in percentages while people like me and Otaku get a straight innocent or guilty.

[Banana Bob]

hmmm, I was away yesterday and so was hoping for some new posts...doesn't look like any here *sigh*

EVERYONE, KEEP TALKING

[NanookTheWolf]

Something doesn't seem quite right with any of the investigations quite honestly in my opinion. Massives do seem off beat, but I don't think that we would have to cops who both get guilty or innocent either. It just doesn't seem creative enough to me, and if that be the case then I am sorry for degrading the mod's creativity. I'm going to have to continue reading up some more before I throw down my vote, but as of now I think it falls more so towards Banana Bob. I'm not certain yet, so give me a little more time.

Also, sorry for not posting as soon as I planned last. I got called into work while reading and just haven't gotten back to it yet.

[massive]

BB: I am saying my information is concrete because I am 100% sure I get these PMs from the mod. I do not believe you get straight innocent or guilty. Therefore - why I call the information "concrete".

More later, I've just arrived back in front of a computer ...

[Fuldu]

BB: I am saying my information is concrete because I am 100% sure I get these PMs from the mod. I do not believe you get straight innocent or guilty. Therefore - why I call the information "concrete".

More later, I've just arrived back in front of a computer ...

Well, that's not helpful massive. It means the information is concrete for you, but not for any of the rest of us. Suggesting that we shouldn't lynch you because you get concrete information, and that the information is concrete because it comes from the mod is specious. All the other investigative roles could say the same thing and I wouldn't have any means of distinguishing between them. None of it's 'concrete' as far as I'm concerned. And your results are a good deal less useful than many of the others.

I've been keeping quiet about the following in the hopes that BB would come out with this reasoning about his own role, which would be a lot less suspicious than if I give him an out, but he hasn't. We've already had a big argument in this game about precisely the fact that BB

doesn't

get a straight guilty/innocent result. He gets gangster/not gangster, which could be consistent with Otaku's guilty/innocent result if BB were a non-SK cop. We may not be able to test that, since it seems probable that all scum that aren't a gangster are dead. But it would mean that we don't just have two straight cops.

[Banana Bob]

let me remind you that I did get IS as gangster and when he was lynched.

Massive: I get my results straight from Yoko as well, so using your logic mine and everyone else's results would be concrete.

We're talking about concrete as in whether the results have substance, not concrete as in whether it is genuine. I'm sure every investigators results are genuine, it just that their not very helpful.

[SinisterOverlord]

I don't completely think what massive is saying is making sense - how can you call something in a percentage concrete? Especially when the percentages aren't particularly high, even if the one person did turn up twice. However...

Ah, what the hell. The game's supposed to be fun, might as well have some fun, see what will happen.

I was the one who broke into his house night 1. I'm a burglar... basically a role cop. I steal stuff, giving me an idea of what their role is. Night one, I got some chemicals, a lab kit, and lots of photos of dead people. I guessed his role was the forensic scientist from that, and from the mafiascum roles page. Looks like it's exactly as it is on that page, his claim only confirmed it for me.

Night 2, I got some tarot cards from MeMe.

Night 3, I found a bunch of guns in IS' place, and pics of Quailman and Cadmium. I was gonna come out then and claim to get him lynched, but as it turned out that was unneccesary.

Night 4, Fuldu had a whole lot of expensive stuff... got me a porche. Make of that what you will.

Last night, I went to morpheus' house. But something scared me off.

Now given what massive's been saying, I don't think he's standing on that solid ground with his arguments. And his evidence is hardly conclusive. And BB's been cleared...

With this, I'm not sure why I voted him... the evidence is fairly convincing, as it goes. Looking from here, looks like two people on the same side at each other's throats.

So, I'll

Unvote: BananaBob

and

Vote: Morpheus

. I probably should have done this earlier, but I was reluctant to reveal my information. However, right now I'm feeling like caution be damned! What will happen, will happen. It's just a game, after all!

[Fuldu]

Cripes, this is a lot of investigative roles. I'll leave my vote on Morpheus for now, but if we don't find scum tonight, a thorough examination of all the claimed investigators seems merited.

[Thoth]

I agree on that Fuldu. Way too many investigative roles. Either one or more of them is lying or there is a catch somewhere to at least one of the roles.
Do you know how you were scared of SO. Was it caused by Morpheus somehow or is it possible that someone roleblocked you?

[Herbert West]

Unvote: Massive

(again...)

Can I ask for a vote count please. Being scared off Morpheus' place looks pretty suspicious, but if I've counted right that's three votes, and I'd like to hear his explanation....

So Fuldu's got a Porsche has he? (Wonders about the obligatory 'BMW drivers are scum' argument....). I guess that means he's not a cop, unless it's old or he's corrupt.....

[massive]

I'm not saying I'm making sense ... as I said, it was a long weekend (and a little frustrating on my end!) so please bear with me.

My point about "concrete evidence" is that we only have BB's word that he is what he says (and he gets the results he gets). Two results on the same person, to me, at least is enough to make me suspicious, and he just hasn't given us anything that hasn't been given to us by the mod in the paper, or by Otaku.

But, as I'm off the hook for a bit, maybe I'll get more conclusive evidence tonight. And I'd be interested about Morpheus as well. Vote count would help ... Herbert West said it was three votes but I only see one.

[Fuldu]

I have a vote on Morpheus from long ago, and I believe there was a third from before me, as well. I haven't counted, but three votes on Morpheus jibes with my recollection.

[Otaku376]

Wow another cop. And another cop who investigated IS on night 3.
Question to SO: Why did you investigate MeMe when BB cleared her on day1?
And Fuldu: not that I neccessarily want another claim, but does you owning a porche make sense?
I just hope this isn't really like Kerplunk's mini and we're all just red herrings.

[Fuldu]

And Fuldu: not that I neccessarily want another claim, but does you owning a porche make sense?

It does, but it's more like the mixed drinks result than the tarot cards result. If you're going to take a shot in the dark, pick something that could have many possible meanings and hope for the best. That's not to say that SO did so, because it's definitely a valid result for me, but if that's the only evidence we're going on that he's telling the truth, it's hardly conclusive.