Flameaxe, any reason why you're so eager?
Mini #509: Mighty Morphin' Power Rangers, Game Over!
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Because I do not see a point in wasting a day of conversation with an ill-advised groundless quicklynch. We do not know how many bad guys we have in this game, nor what type of bad guys they are. (Thus we don't know how many dead people a night will result in. Therefore we shouldn't rush into it blindly. I wonder if perhaps the game starting with a day-phase is indicitive of anything in terms of a scum/townie balance.
Additionally, Avalon, I'd like to know your motivation for wanting to be lynched.-
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I agree with Peers. Not funny and a waste of time = not good. I don't see what Avalon's crappy attempt as joking has to do with the rest of you piling on pointlessly? I also don't understand why Avalon would have such a ridiculously annoying method of joking, but I'm of the belief that playing along with juvenile behavior only further encourages and enables it, so I'd like the extend the humorless schoolmarm headshaking to everyone who plays along with this kind of nonsese.-
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Since this is getting nowhere (and none of you are funny. Get over it) I will purpose the fowwing. Since Avalon's bandwagon hd 5 people on it (including himself) it would be satistically sound to assume that at least one of them is scum. In a game likje this, I will also assume that we have probably three or four mafia players (could be 2, could be 5 cause of the five rangers, but one mislynch and one nightkill would put town in LYLO with that, so I'm going to assume that 5 is less likely than 3 or 4 for that reason, though it is still possible due to the number of rangers). Possibly some other killing role, don't know yet since we started on day.
So, in no particular order, Blight, Avalon, Flame, CES, Unright, what do you all think about my above comment.-
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I *am* assuming and speculating too much, but at least I'm trying for an actual conversation that extends past "ohh, lets vote someone pointlessly and see if we can lynch him." Though my assumption that at least one person on that bandwagon (barring the possibility of there only being two scum) is most likely correct due to probability.-
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First of all, you neglected to actually answer my question. Second, it is a place to start. I am of the opinion that WIFOM is a useful tool for extracting information. It's crappy logic, yes, but it gets people talking, which, for some reason, you lot don't seem too keen on.Flameaxe wrote: If you are thinking about focusing pressure on just those 5: I say, screw dat, scum.
I don't see why we can't come to a partially informed decision, Peers, as opposed to voting either randomly or not voting at all. Do you see a rush to get to a lynch? I certainly don't. We more or less have until the mod decides that we should move (so at least a month) to talk and argue and try to do something that isn't random or just piling on to a convienent bandwagon. Speaking of, why exactly did you vote for Avalon? Self-voting, if anything, is a null-tell. (By the way, this means 6 people, including Avalon, were at some point on the wagon already.)
CES: why do you think Avalon and Unright are townish? And if you do why is your vote still on Avalon?-
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I'm not up to speculating about names yet (and would like to avoid that until claiming becomes inevitable...for the record, I don't like claiming), but I do vaguely remember the original show, though not particularly well and there are a wagonload of oneshot monsters. The mod does have all the bases covered there since anything is claimable.
I do not think there are 5 rangers here, as that would be too unbalanced. I think there might be four however, or three with an SK.-
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Care to share why?dybeck wrote:FOS: unright. I have my eye on you.
jmar: more then one mafia team is possible, but then there'd be a total of 6 or 4 scum with 3 or 2 to a team. And probably no SK. I think it's a little less likely then a one team mafia, though it might be possible with ranger replacements.-
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Unright, the fact that you mentioned that you weren't going to do a vanishing act alone means that you had thought about it (since you felt the need to reassure us you weren't). I will drop this for now, as I don't see anything to indicate role at this point or think its worth speculating, but my last point will be that thinking about going into lurking mode is *bad*-
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Gah. Sorry for not posting. It's been an insanely busy weekend that I wasn't able to predict ahead of time.
First, I don't think what Peers has said is necessarily indicitive of a power role or a scum tell. I don't like post 155 though because retroactively justifying statements like that makes me edgy.
Second, PlaysWith, I have to disagree with your suspicion of JMar. It's too early to be actively lurking, especially not much having happened in this game as of yet. That and I don't consider lurking to be necessarily correlated with scumminess due to past experiences.-
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There isn't a good reason for a townie to lurk, but some people tend to do this regardless of role. (See my game history for examples.) Because I've encountered it coming from both scum *and* townies, I don't consider a scum tell in and of itself. There has to be something more going on than just plain lurking for me to get suspicious.Unright wrote:
Do you mind expounding on that? What good reason would a townie have to lurk?Mirth wrote:That and I don't consider lurking to be necessarily correlated with scumminess due to past experiences.-
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Because I don't find it suspicious. I'm inclined to think that avoiding baseless bandwagons is a good thing, and the unvote gives Originality brownie points in my opinion. Bob (and the rest of you), I don't see your logic in suspecting anyone from avoiding a totally unfounded bandwagon. I do, however, fail to understand why Originality voted Jmar in the first place, as I think the "OMG! You're lurking in plain sight!" argument is a poor basis for anything, expecially day 1.Unright wrote: That's fine. But why aren't you commenting on Originality's "Oh shit I'm suspiciously forth I better unvote" move?
PlaysWith, I'm going to keep my vote on you for the time being.-
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PlaysWith: I agree with you on that but it's not a scum tell this early in the game. It is indicitive of nothing, ergo not a valid basis for a bandwagon attempt, ergo I am suspicious of you for trying to start a bandwagon on what coule basically amount to playstyle. (I'm also not a fan of Unright at this moment, but I'm going to keep my vote on you for the time being.)-
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We do have to lynch someone today, yes, but not this very minute, which is what seems to be the common assumption here.PlaysWithSquirrels wrote:Everyone keeps saying there's "nothing to go on" etc. but that doesn't change the fact that we have to be lynching someone today. Sitting here with our thumbs up our asses isn't going to accomplish anything. If you guys are waiting for someone to jump up and admit that they kill people at night and need professional help will be sorely disappointed. It is page 10, people. Do something.
Flameaxe: for jumping on the jokewagon and staying on it until page 8.-
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"Joke" bandwagons bother me when they pass 3 votes. I dont see a point in themto begin with, but when you carry it past a certain point, I have to wonder "why"? (By the way, no one had yet explained that to me)Blight wrote: Mirth is another possibility. UA's BW was obviously a joke, but the fact that she was seriously opposing it could be her trying real hard to look like town. Maybe she thought that everyone would really lynch UA and then she'd have some credibility by being the only one to oppose it. I just saw this in another game with UA. But...again...I don't know. I'm kind of in between with her too. I see her as pro-town, but then she keeps bringing up the UA BW like it was more than just a joke to get things started.-
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I was aware that it wasn't a completely serious bandwagon, I just happen to not have a sense of humor. Especially when probability tells me that at least one person who was on that bandwagon is probably scum.Peers wrote: It wasn't obviously a joke. I didn't know that; it's not hard to believe people who'd never played with UA or any of the others involved would think that way, too.
And why do I keep bringing it up? Because y'all keep trying to write it off as "Avalon always does this." Regardless of what he always does or does not do, you should not automatically go along with it. And I honestly don't believe that everyone who at some point voted for him was only voting to be "funny"-
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This train of thought however still makes more sense than a pointless bandwagon, as I'm trying to find motives and not just jump for the sake of jumping. You are right, however, that my use of probability is naive. I should have included the following clause: If Avalon is town, then there was probably more than one scum on the wagon. If Avalon is scum, I'd suspect they stay clear entirely.Cogito Ergo Scum wrote:
This doesn't have anything to do with probability. You don't know how many scums are in the game, and even if you knew, this argument doesn't make sense at all. If there was one scum on the wagon, that means two scum (assuming there are 3 scum total, which seems to be the usual number in mini's) weren't on the wagon, and that means the people not wagonning have a higher probability of being scum. I also don't see why the possibility of a scum being on the wagon makes you wary of the wagon itself. Do you honestly believe anyone on the wagon was ever intent on lynching Avalon? Because I'm pretty sure you don't. Let's face it: Votes have no practical value whatsoever if they're not actually used to lynch someone.Mirth wrote:I was aware that it wasn't a completely serious bandwagon, I just happen to not have a sense of humor. Especially when probability tells me that at least one person who was on that bandwagon is probably scum.
Blight: Maybe. It in part depends on Avalon's alignment and in part on vote order. I doubt scum would be vote 6 or a hammer, but if it's seemingly innocuous, with me being the only person in this game paying very much attention to it, well, there's no harm in jumping and letting an idiot townie hammer, but it depends on timing it right and playing well over all.-
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Peers, could you please explain your vote on Flameaxe right now?
Also, here is the post where you voted for Avalon:
Which means that after mentioning that you didn't like the joke wagon, you piled on anyway. (And you did mention not liking it:)Peers in post 89 wrote:I dunno... a five-person bandwagon (4 not counting the self-voter) in a 12-person game... it's perfectly reasonable for the scum to not be on that bandwagon. The problem is, you get into a WIFOM arguement over if they would or wouldn't avoid it.
The sad thing is, we have very little to go on, and what we do have is based on randomness and bad humor. We either lynch someone totally at random, or don't lynch anyone at all. If we lynch at random, at least there's a chance of hitting a scum... and UA may just be trying to protect himself with that "Oh, I always do this" 'joke'...
Vote: UltimaAvalon
So...why jump on?Peers in post 75 wrote:
... don't get me started on jokes that a) aren't funny and b) waste time... I already have one person almost on my always-drop list because of that...Flameaxe wrote:Considering you haven't played with UA before, I'll let the fact that you don't realinze it was a total joke that he does every game slide...-
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CES, you're right in my lack of voting (though the second time I put my vote on Playswith, it was for an non-random reason). I'm tentative by nature and don't feel comfortable voting just for the sake of voting. In fact, that reminds me:
unvote:Playswithsquirrels
as don't see any reason to keep it there any longer. Still don't agree with his reasoning, though.
Peers I fail to understand your reasoning for either vote.
Originality, why do you think that CES is most suspicious of you now?
Also, I would very much like to hear a bit more from Jmar and Bob, who haven't said much lately.-
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By that same token, Unright, if Avalon and Flameaxe were partners, you're saying that if one says the other is not guilty, you'd let it slide. Even if they are familiar with each other and each other's playstyle, it shouldn't make too much of a difference, in that a good player should always theoretically play the same way, or roughly the same. Otherwise it's pure metagaming. I mostly don't metagame anymore as metagaming could convince you of things that don't exist in a particular game setting.-
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Peers, give me a good reason why not to vote you right now, please. Because I'm not sure how much longer the already sizable wagon on you will continue to deter me.
This is the third time you've wagon jumped. For very poor reasons. Yes, Flameaxe is obnoxious. Being obnoxious is not a scumtell.
Unright: Your logic is still flawed. If one were to call the other scummy, could be scum casting suspicion on a townie.-
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Peers, could you please try to make some sense, please?
Avalon, Flame, could you stop being jerks, please?
Even if a townie is damned annoying, lynching them is a stupid move. Why? Well this is a closed set-up. We don't know how many mislynches we can afford or how many killing roles there are. We don't want to purposefully mislynch because it might put us in a bad, bad, very bad spot. Now then, I don't know if Flame is town or scum, but in the case of this particular argument it doesn't matter. Yes, he's a jerk. Yes, he's annoying. That does not mean lynching him on just those two grounds is justified, because, see above. Also, you seem to be treating lynching Flame as town lynch, more than a possible scum lynch. Why would you be leaning that way?
Also, I'd like toVote: Peers
I'm pretty sure this puts you at L-2 Peers. So please, explain yourself. Without advocating town lynches please.-
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"Backfired attempt at casusing paranoia among Mafia" sounds like you're ascribing meaning to an event post hoc. Who do you think is suspicious? Because you've been making me uncomfortable with your actions for a while now, and I'd like to get as far inside your head as possible short of imitating Ed Gein.-
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I do not understand your motivation for posting this. If it is to encourage me to unvote, it has failed.Peers wrote:
I never said I wasn't suspicious. I know I am. But after the huge blow-up between me, FlameAxe, and UltimaAvalon... the word 'Unvote' was used. Why? Because I said I was town, they said they were town, and the odd thing... we believed each other despite how much we pissed each other off and everything else we might consider evidence to the contrary.Mirth wrote:"Backfired attempt at casusing paranoia among Mafia" sounds like you're ascribing meaning to an event post hoc. Who do you think is suspicious? Because you've been making me uncomfortable with your actions for a while now, and I'd like to get as far inside your head as possible short of imitating Ed Gein.
Other possible reason? Townie trying to break the game by having those of the non-putty sort among us speculate over the possibility of a non-vanilla game. I don't find your original statement damning in the least, but I don't like your explanation for your current claim.Think about it. What -possible- reason could I have for saying "Maybe we all have power roles" other than trying to put that suggestion into the Mafia's head? Most people think that I was outing myself as a power role, but they seem to think it was unintentional. I say I was trying to confuse the Mafia. And there's the outside chance that I'm Mafia trying to screw up the players mindless of the fact it would draw attention to myself, in which case, wow, that worked wonders, huh? (Come to think of it, it worked 'wonders' no matter what my intentions about it were...)
I consider uncomfortable a sufficient category of suspicion, because it takes at least one dead body for me to get anything more than antsy. I'm not going take my vote off you because I don't find anyone else all that suspicious at the moment. I'm still less than happy with Unright, but I'd like to him to talk some more before I reconsider him. I also honestly don't understand the current wagon on JMar, as I don't find him suspicious at the moment. And no, I'm not already inside your head. Your skull still seems to be intact.Mirth, you've already got your vote on me. If all I've done is make you uncomfortable, then isn't a vote a bit strong? Aren't you already inside my head, and you think it's scummy? Because if not...-
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Unright: It's a couple of things actually. You half-claim, this:
(You did answer my original question on it, but your answer shrugged it off and accused me of role fishing.)Unright wrote:
I've typed up posts, but I've been too spooked out to actually hit the reply button. I feel that I've already stumbled twice so far this game (jumping on UA's self-bandwagon, and making stupid assumptions) and it's still very early, so I've got some self-doubt going on.Mirth wrote:I understand what you're saying, but it's a null tell for now. Unright needs to talk more before we can use that post to weigh anything.
Your wagoning of Jmar (I'd like to know why y'all think Jmar is being being scummy, please?), wagoning for the sake of wagoning, jumping on Originality for unvoting, and some crap logic. I don't suspect you enough to vote you, but I'm keeping my eye on you.
As for Dybeck, I'm not a fanof the unvote, but wasn't going to say anything about it until Unright reacted. Sooo...Dybeck...why did you unvote?-
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And this is why my vote is staying on you...you're discouraging thought. We have two weeks. Two weeks is more than enough time to swing another bandwagon, given there is enough evidence for it, so if anyone has any suspicions besides you and JMar, they should voice them. You also, obviously, did not read game rules:Peers wrote:
For the same reason you're better off not voting for a third-party candidate in the American Presidential Elections. You have no chance of success, your vote is mainly to say "I support voting for this guy in the future, where I hope there will be more support for him, and eventually we can get him in."Mirth wrote:
Why do you say so? Also even if there is no no apparent chance to lynch someone else, if one believes that someone else is a better target for lynching, why not try anyway?Peers wrote:and there's no chance of being able to lynch anyone else.
Right now, unless there's a huge swing towards someone else, either jmar or myself is being lynched. I don't think this town is stupid enough to do a day-one no-lynch, and there isn't enough evidence or arguments for the town to go after anyone else... at least, not to the point of getting enough votes. A third candidate for lynching will only take votes away from the other two, and most likely cause a no-lynch.
I'm not saying "Don't vote for someone else". I'm just saying, unless you really think you have a strong enough argument to get people to unvote from jmar and me, it's not going to do the town any good. Personally? i'd love to hear a good case that gets people to unvote from me, but it's day one... I don't think there's enough action out there to make such a case. If someone can prove me wrong, please do.
We don't infact, need seven for a lynch.petroleumjelly wrote:Jelly's Rules
Rules On what is Allowable:
[05] When a deadline has been placed, I will require only a majority of what would normally be a majority for a lynch (i.e. 7 players needs 4 to lynch, so I would require 3 to lynch in such a scenario). If this number is not reached, day will end in no-lynch, and the game will progress directly into night. If the town is in a Lynch-or-Lose situation, however, there will be no lowered requirements for lynching.Mod, would it be correct to assume that because of deadline we need at least 4 for a lynch?
So...Peers, have anything helpful to say? Or do you want to let Avalon talk for himself now?-
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- Posts: 4193
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Mirth Congratulations! You are ...
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- Posts: 4193
- Joined: May 22, 2007
- Location: New England
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Mirth Congratulations! You are ...
- Congratulations! You are ...
- Congratulations! You are ...
- Posts: 4193
- Joined: May 22, 2007
- Location: New England
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Mirth Congratulations! You are ...
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- Posts: 4193
- Joined: May 22, 2007
- Location: New England
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Mirth Congratulations! You are ...
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- Posts: 4193
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Pbp of Peers:
1: votes Originality for some meta game reason.
2:Peers wrote:No, more a warning for him, really. I'm more than willing to give him a second chance, but I don't give thirds.
Which, I know, is scummy, because voting for someone regardless of what their role is can hurt the town... but I've yet to see actual logic applied on the first day, so...
3. votes Jmar for monty python quote
4. logistics of page 1 lynch
5. asks about point of Avalon bandwagon
6. doesn't like Avalong bandwagon, as it isnt funny and wastes time
7. comments about my name since I agree with him at this point
8. votes Avalon (...the hell?)
9.
<-- why so fatalistic here and not even try?Peers wrote:If a logical lynch were possible, I'd be all for it. But it's not, given that we don't have any information to go on that doesn't stem from someone's attempts to get laughs out of the first day.
10. mentions odds even for scum on bandwagon
11.
12. Says its hypothetical, reserves right to claim PuttyPeers wrote: Unless, of course, nobody received that PM because nobody is a vanilla townie. It'd be a little high-powered for a small game, but this -is- Power Rangers...
13. Says last two posts might have not been slipped and used to confuse mafia. (My inner scientists says this sounds like bull)
14.
<-- why try to predict how other people react to you, why not just play?Peers wrote: Because in the first place, I said one thing, and people implied something compeltely different -- I've given up trying to predict what I need to say in the first place or what needs to be justified.
15. says he's getting defensive because he's being attacked
16. Asks why C.E.S. voted for him based on the last post
17. Says that I admit he's being attacked, so defense shouldn't be strange
18. Asks how one lurks in plain sight
19. Unvotes Avalon, says the bandwagoning in strange
20. Says suspects are: Avalon for generally being suspicious, Originality for vote/unvote, Jmar for saying Peers backtracked on the Putty thing
21. Says Avalon's voting wasn't obviously a joke and that he didn't know that it was
22. Votes Flameaxe, for misattributing quotes
23.
24. Attackes Flameaxe for "willfully" confusing him with UnrightPeers wrote: Note that I did not vote for UA until post 89 (or so), after I was aware it was some sort of joke bandwagon, and I gave as my reason for voting the fact that such jokes are not helpful to the town.
25. Says jokes hurt the town, best solution is to elliminate the joker, trys to refute Avalon's post that miscounting is not a scumtell
26. Unvotes because he assumed that LAL was a "hard and fast rule"
27. Sarcasm
28. Asks CES about suspects
29. Acuses Avalon and someone else (probably Flame) of twisting words around
30. Says he himself never twisted words around
31. Votes Flame for being a jerk
32. Says lynching obnoious people is good for town even if they aren't scum
33. Says Flame's jerkiness is bad for town
34.
35.Peers wrote: I have already answered this question. It doesn't. You may very well be town. However, if you are, you're the worst kind of town, one that pretty much ensures the game will be a scum victory. And therefor, you need to go.
36.Peers wrote: Amazingly enough, the reason you're bad town to me is that you attack with flimsy reasons. Go fig.
And now my new big scumtell is that... I don't care if you're town or scum? Wow.
Now, I'll agree with you, to a point. Wanting all the townies dead? Scumtell. Wanting lots of townies dead? Scumtell. Wanting one particular townie dead so he can't screw over the town and the rest of us can get the scum? Not a scumtell.
I'm fairly confident that if you don't get lynched today or tomorrow, the game will end in a scum victory, whether you're scum or not. And that, my friend, is why I don't care if you're scum or town... I know that your survival means the town loses.
37. Wants to lynch possible "bad townie" Flame to get rid of obstruction to scum hunting. see above.Peers wrote:
The goal of the town is not to lynch mafia. The goal of the town is to win.UltimaAvalon wrote:PEERS!
If you're so concerned about your ability to scumhunt, why are you willing to admit Flameaxe is town, but still convinced he needs to die. I see you turn IC in a few days, but you've obviously missed a very important lesson about what Town is supposed to do in Mafia. Town is supposed to LYNCH MAFIA! If there's someone who is townie yet obstructive, you don't waste a lynch. YOU IGNORE HIM!
Most of the time, yes, the best way to do this is to lynch mafia. But there are cases (say, a goon who is siblings with a town power-role, or some situations involving SKs, or those involving town players who are acting like scum players) where it's best to lynch someone else. They are rare, but they exist, and we have one here.
And yet, going after you for something I find to be scummy (note: In this case 'scummy' does not mean 'is scum' but means 'will make scum win') is a bad reason for me to vote for you? Double standards only apply if the two people are different factions.FlamingAxe wrote:Just because I'm going after you for something I find to be scummy, doesn't mean I'm here to screw over the town.
I'm town. Which means you are... what, again?
38. sarcasm
39. Claims we're at a brick wall, thinks Flame is an obstruction
40.
<-- and yet, lynching Flame, even if he is town, is A-Okay?Peers wrote: If I'm lynched, then the town loses a member, no matter what you may believe. But that's okay; I think you're scum, too.
41. Claims Putty, Says mafia is a game using emotions and not logical, and that while lynching town is bad, he's still fine with it if it gets stuff done
42. says his "hypothetical" and putty claims are not contridictions
43. says he hasn't lied
44. thinks he's dead from voting
45.
<---and yet you change your tune soon and accuse him of stuff. post hocing much?Peers wrote:Unvote
Don't know if it'll make a difference right now, but might as well.
And PWS, what has jmar done besides, y'know, listen to Originality and vote for me?
46. Asks Jmar to clarify something
47. Says Jmar's point is from 2 weeks ago, asks why he didnt act on it before
48. Asks Originality why Jmar voting for Peers is bad, but Originality voting is not
49. Says that because of the "reserve right to claim putty" post his claim isnt contridictory of anything. (Not true)
50. Says power role post was an attempt to bother the mafia.
51. Says that he knows he's suspicious. Asks what other possible reason he could have for power role posts. Asks if my vote on him is too strong
52. Votes JMar for OMGUS reasons (thinks his vote is a hammer)
53. Says stuff without really making a point.
54. Admits the Jmar vote is OMGUS and that he missed an unvote
55. No point really. Arguing with Jmar over the putty thing
56. Says theres no dybeck/Peers connection. Scum apparently don't bus their buddies day 1
57. Answers for Avalon, says no chance to lynch anyone but Peers and Jmar
58. Says voting anyone else would be a waste
59. Said he missed the deadline rules
60. said he wasn't putting words any Avalons mouth
61. says PlaysWith's vote on Jmar may be a playstyle thing
62. says case against him is bad
63. doesn't seem to understand Avalon's sarcasm
64. Analysis of Jmar to make him look scummy.
Conclusion:Confirm vote: Peers-
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Mirth Congratulations! You are ...
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While I don't like Unright's sudden vote-hop, I must say he's right here. Peers, if you're a townie, your goal isn't to survive. Your goal is to make sure the scum don't. That being said, if you're a townie, you should be more concerned with getting rid of scum then making sure that you, yourself, are not lynched. This is because win conditions apply post mortem and all. What you're doing, however, is simply giving up. And you keep saying you are over and over again. You pretty much gave up even before the deadline with your wagon votes. Except for your original two random/joke votes, you've been wagon hopping and yet to actually express any original suspicion or make a claim that does not reak of being formulated post hoc.-
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Mirth Congratulations! You are ...
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- Posts: 4193
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- Location: New England