Mafia 60: Face-to-Face - Game over!

[Patrick]

I can't particularly see anyone who is connected to Thesp at the moment.

[Patrick]

Thirdly, I've yet to have a correct read on MBL in any game and I always disagree with the majority of what he says and Patrick nearly always looks town.

The reason for that might be that I nearly always am town. No joke.

I will try to get in some reread when I get the time, which should hopefully be soon because I'm on holiday now.

[Patrick]

Taking a trip back to day 1.

Patrick: What do you think of the D1 wagons against Spectrumvoid, the eventual lynch against AndrewS, and the people who discussed wanting to have IH vigged?

As for the wagon on spectrumvoid, I thought I made my thoughts clear about it much earlier. Fritz attacked her early, for seemingly no reason whatsoever. Typical Fritz. Then you voted her based on the roll of a die. Mbl has just explained why he voted her, which I tend to believe actually. Pfft, then we have Adele and Zindaras hopping on though it's not clear why. Seems they were just being stupid, now we know they were both town. Then CES hops on, obviously no reason given. Then IH hopped on, again no reason, though I questioned him about it. He cobbled together some case later on after she had claimed vig, when I forced it out of him. Despite the fact IH was town, I think that case was likely just something he made up to appease me. So obvious conclusion is that it was a terrible wagon. I've played a load of games with spectrumvoid, and I know she can often look slightly scummy mainly because she's often being lazy and only half playing the game. But the wagon on her was obviously completely out of proportion with anything she'd done. By simple process of elimination, I can tell there was at least one scum on that wagon.

The AndrewS wagon was again, in my opinion, out of proportion. I disliked some of the people hopping on for, as Ether put it, "bullshit reasons" or no reason at all. IH was the player I disliked the most. I also disliked Thesp's obviously disproportionate attack on AndrewS, but I've played with him before, and it seemed mostly like typical Thesp, meaning he would take a small thing and blow it up into something huge, and push for one person for the rest of the day, repeating over and over, "Why is Andrew not lynched yet?" I remember not liking some of the WIFOM defences used by Andrew, but that was about it. I also felt that the way the wagon developed on him made it slightly more likely he was town and that there were scum on the wagon. There must have been 2-3 scum on the it. I would have hammered him to avoid a no lynch, but that's about it. I wasn't overely excited.

As for the vigging. Some people did seem to be just vig IH without really explaining why, but it didn't worry me as much since I thought IH was scum and was happy to see him vigged. I remember being a bit confused by Adele suggesting 3 possible vigging targets and not really liking her system. So yeah. A load of people seemed happy to vig IH. MBL gave one or two reasons, which were ok, though the main thing I didn't like about IH was he was very oppotunistic, and was attacking easy targets. He didn't seem to think about the Andrew thing very deeply at all, and never really gave any answers that satisfied me.

Out of the people alive, I preferred and still prefer MBL's stances towards all those things. I get the impression half the players didn't take day 1 seriously at all, which made it hard to tell idiots from scum. Glork and CES just bandwagoned. I didn't like Mgm's stance towards spectrumvoid, and attacked him on day 2 about it (apparently guessing she was a powerole but not defending her and teling her to claim etc.) He seemed alright with an IH vigging, though I'm not particularly clear on why, other than IH being "second on the list". Again, the impression I get from several people is that they were ok to play slightly flippantly on day 1, maybe because we had such a large numerical advantage over scum (my feeling is this setup in general is slightly good for the town - maybe I'm wrong). Thesp was insane on Andrew, but at least didn't vote for spectrumvoid. He didn't play a big part in the vigging process, it's true. You'd think he's have pushed more for Delibird. But then again he had that odd argument for not deciding vigging targets anyway. I personally disagreed with it, I doubt we were ever going to lynch spectrumvoid after the vig claim, and I was about 98.67% sure she was telling the truth. I didn't see scum choosing vig as a fakeclaim.

I haven't reread everything, because I forgot that being home again makes it harder to spend insane amounts of time at the computer without being yelled at. I think we likely have 2 scum in (CES, MgM, MBL) though it's not set in stone. If Glork turns out to be scum I will seriously cry and probably give up ever trying to read him in future. I don't know what Thesp doesn't like about my posts today, considering I'd hardly posted anything at that point. MgM's first post still feels slightly off because he seemed to come out of the gates with a vote and a ready made plan, which isn't at all how I felt. We had just learned the alignments of two more people. I know that Mgm seemed heavily suspicious of Ether, so it just seemed odd that he didn't say anything at all about that and just went back to what he was doing yesterday. Plus whenever someone comes out of the gates saying, "X was killed and this incriminates Y" it instinctively makes me think of a setup. The first thing that popped into my head when I read that was, "It's CES/MgM". I think CES/MgM is possible, though I did comment earlier that it seems like an incredibly bold scumpair, in that they've both been defending each other, and to some extent CDB, for most of the game for apparently no real reason. That's one concern with that scumpairing, it seems a little brazen at the moment. CES/MBL is possible, but I need to read up more on it. Obviously they've attacked each other somewhat. I don't get the MBL/Thesp thing sugested, as I do think MBL questioned Thesp pretty thoroughly earlier on. I don't know where Glork got that from, so I'm assuming he misremembered.

Currently if I had to have a stand alone top suspect, it's probably CES. I don't want to lynch either of the guys who can't be goons at this stage. Worse odds there.

Heh, post 1645 by Glork bothers me a bit because he just flat out states that Thesp is town. I'm not such a big advocate as MBL on freudian slip tells, but still.

I need to eat now. At some point I'll try to get a closer look at the interactions between MBL and each of the two dutch guys.

[Patrick]

Looking over everyone's posts in isolation, I'm not really wild about Patrick's posts today. I am curious, though, why do you think CTD was killed? I'm fine with purely speculative thought.

It was unexpected, given that other people seemed to have attracted less suspicion. I gave one possible reason in the previous post. I don't really get the possible reason MBL gave, since I don't think Ether/CTD had such a brilliant voting record. I'm always unsure how much to read into a nightkill. I'd rather go by what's in the thread. What about you?

[Patrick]

Waves hi, if only for the purpose of ruling out a scumpair.

[Patrick]

Waves hi again btw. You know CES, if you are protown and you were only seriously considering a Thesp/Patrick pairing or a Thesp/MBL pairing, then your vote was reckless. You didn't even wait for Glork's opinion which you seemed to value so highly in helping you decide. Why the sudden lunge?

[Patrick]

Hi Thesp. It's your move in our chess game

[Patrick]

I don't do hardcore analysis at this hour (2:45 am). I don't think we spammed that much that it needs complaining about. And my question to CES was serious.

[Patrick]

Patrick

Hi.

Some things worth pointing out.

Two townie wagons as deadline nears, sv's grew alarmingly rapidly. Patrick makes a surprisingly glib post about choosing between the two.

This, I still think, was overblown by you.

809 is a sketchy post to Glork:

I looked at your play, and thought (wrongly it seems) that you were a cop with a guilty on Mgm... I don't mind saying this now because it seems I was wrong in that assumption.

Bizarre observation to make publicly, risky again if scum.

Explain what was sketchy or bizarre about this. I assumed I was wrong when Glork backed away from MgM, and I was asked why I'd apparently been favouring Mgm lynch over Adele lynch. So I explained why.

Starts out with a Zindy vote. Defends against the failure to hammer by pointing out others who didn't rather than defending his judgment, which is odd and very defensive.

Nah. Your interpretation of these events was bizarre. You attacked me heavily over this for a while, then shortly after made a post where I remember you expressing suspicion of about half the players in the game, and I wasn't even one of them. I assume you must have been exagerating your attacks on me earlier, unless you had a very quick change of heart.

Morning note: Thesp, MBL, Glork find Patrick pro-town, why isn't Patrick dead overnight instead of CTD?

I didn't really expect to be killed. There are better players then me here. I actually thought the most likely kill would be Glork, since I'm pretty sure he's town.

Patrick's relevant post today gives a lot of weight and time to D1 events. It doesn't appear to be stretching in an effort to reach conclusions.

You realise Glork asked me a bunch of questions about day 1 stuff? That would be why I was talking mostly about day 1 stuff.

Have to get off the computer, post rushed, I'll answer the thing about CES and MgM later.

[Patrick]

Patrick, please explain the evolution of your opinions of Mgm and CES over the past few days.

Very wishy washy on CES days 1 and 2. I hardly remember thinking anything about him. His play struck me as the same as in Lights Out 2, and even pretty similar to an open c9 setup we played in together a while ago. He was town both times. Later on I was suspicious of Zindaras, and on day 4 wondered whether CES was being used as easy bait for easy reasons and wondered why Zindaras wasn't getting more attention. Was slightly unnerved when you voted him for having crappy suspicions whilst telling me that you've twice used him as a foil when you were scum for his crappy suspicions. He's never exactly struck me as protown, but never really came to the top. Similar to CDB in a way, until the claim and his behaviour post claim. I remember looking over Space Monkeys for some help in trying to read him, but he pretty much posted spam all through that game and I'm not sure if actions of scum/town in a backward game like that are necessaily a good metagame.

MgM I've been back and forth on most of the way. That is, back and forth between not liking any of his posts and thinking he's scummy, and not liking his posts and thinking it's just his strange playstyle that I'm not used to. Day 1 I didn't see a big case against him, day 2 was more suspicious. Then obviously became much less of a suspect due to the innocent investigation. I think he's been riding it somewhat since then, though that really could come from scum or town. Disliked his suspicions of Ether, they never seemed well grounded, disliked his suspicions of me for the same reason. And I see his tacky OMGUS on me at the start of day 4, when I think I had some legit observations. He hasn't really seemed like a suitable lynch since the innocent investigation, but that doesn't mean I can't point stuff out that is notable. Around day 3, might have been day 4, I was struck by the comments made by somebody about how he was being nonconformist, which isn't a scum trait. So yeah. If he's scum, he's been blatant about it, then planning on using the too blatant to be scum defence.

[Patrick]

I don't even remember it completely accurately, but I don't think I was onto Fritz as cop. After he was killed I remembered something PJ said at the end of Kingmaker about Fritz being obvious as cop though.

I must admit I didn't pay too much attention to the earlier debate about MBL apparently looking for cops and being scummy for it. As for myself, I wasn't looking for cops on day 2, I was just reading the thread and suddenly it clicked in my brain that Glork was a cop with a guilty on Mgm because his actions made perfect sense for that.

I read back the bit where MgM freaked out and OMGUSed me at the start of day 4, for apparently trying to lynch an investigated innocent (which it's been established I wasn't actually trying to do), and he is lenient toward CES for his much stronger attempts to lynch an investigated innocent (Thesp). He intepretted my actions in the darkest way possible but generally just called CES "nonsensical".

I don't really think MBL and MgM are scum together. MBL pulled MgM into the spotlight quite alot early on, and Mgm has been at him for ages over this cop thing. They don't strike me as scumbuddyish.

[Patrick]

MBL, re stance on Glork, I voted him early day 2 when it seemed like he was going to carry on in the same vein as day 1. From then on he started playing seriously and he made some decent observations, and yeah, at some point I decided he was likely to be protown. His work on CDB did not look like busing so that's a major plus point in my book. In general he just seems to be doing stuff he does as town, and seems pretty genuine to me. If he's phoney then he's doing a better job of it than other times I've seen him as scum.

[Patrick]

Then what were you trying to do? Post 1170 sure looked like you wanted me dead.

Pointing out scummy actions by a player =/= to wanting that player lynched. As noted, I was voting for Zindaras.

I went through the last few pages of posts Fritzler made before he died. He appeared very keen on getting CDB dead, but I found no post that would indicate he thought Thesp was innocent. Can someone point out the exact post that made them think Fritzler investigated Thesp?

His day 2 posts are a better place to look if memory serves correct. He repeated the same message about Thesp many times, and kept trying to bring up alternatives. Similar to the way Adele seemed to keep trying to bring up alternatives to you, but in a stronger way.

[Patrick]

CES would get the chop.

[Patrick]

f I had to choose between you and Glrok, I'd probably go with you, as Thespscum does not imply Glroktown

Actually, Thespscum means that Glork has to be town, and I have to be town, due to the lack of quicklynch.

[Patrick]

If you're scum together with MBL a lack of quicklynch would hardly be exonorating.

Quite correct but I'm not sure how that was relevant to what I was discussing with CES.

Right back at you. FOS: Thesp
Have a good think about why that question is important and non-scummy.

This is interesting and weird.

[Patrick]

I am not disagreeing with you for the sake of it. I think I have an idea what Thesp's complaint is. I also thought FoSing him right back seemed suprising. Feel free to go ahead and enlighten me, I'm listening.

[Patrick]

Of course you do. That way you can tailor your response to fit. I don't think so.

You realise that Thesp doesn't plan on responding to your question right? Please explain why you asked it.

[Patrick]

Mgm, what do you think of CES?

[Patrick]

Patrick, why hasn't CES been lynched sooner?

... because a majority has always chosen to lynch someone else? I suppose several people, including me, have somewhat ignored him because he always plays useless. Many cop out of trying to read him.

* I can't say that Patrick's been laying low because he's asked a fair amount of solid, relevant questions--some at times were questions I had in my mind as well. But why exactly is he clearest in our minds? Tone, proportionality, curiosity, for starters. He hasn't gotten results though, not that any of us have. I'm not willing to let him skate on tone alone.

If Mgm turns out to be scum, I'm claiming some glory because I attacked him alot earlier The only people so far who have really "gotten results" would be Glork and Thesp. If one is scum, then we're down to one player who's gotten results.

Patrick hasn't been on any of the remaining players since Adele claimed. When I reread Patrick I got the sense that I didn't disagree with him often, and when I did, he was very reasonable about it. I feel placated, no offense Patrick

I can try and cause more offence in future if desired.

It's true that I've approached CES and MgM in different ways. You can't approach every player in the same way. When trying to read Fritz for example, much of the read was based on very little, because there is so little to work with. Mgm has used a wide variety of bad logic in this game, and has stayed on certain people for far too long. Obvious way to expose his thought processes is to ask him questions, and disect the bad logic and force him to justify stuff. He's generally failed to do so. With Glork, it's easier to get a meta on him, and I looked for stuff he does as town but doesn't do so much as scum. I've also tried to judge his sincerity in debates where he apparently got worked up or angry, and looked to see whether the stream of consciousness seemed to progress in the way it might for town. With Andrew, I judged him at least partly on what others said and did around him, rather than getting into a large debate with him about the finer points of the defences he was using, which seemed flawed for the most part. Different people, different approach. But yes. I've not really paid much attention to CES compared to some players. Other players I paid relatively little attention to were CDB, Nightfall, fritz maybe others that I can't remember.

[Patrick]

You know that Glork/Thesp/Patrick were all online and simulposted a few days ago. That's what the spam was about.

[Patrick]

In case no one noticed, the scum can win by lynching anyone but their partner. Therefore it's extremely unlikely that someone who commits to voting for someone early on is paired with them.

Having come up against advanced busing mentioned by Glork already in LO2, I have to disagree with this. I think this is a dangerous assumption to make.

MBL/Glork
MBL/Patrick
MBL/Thesp

I must be missing something here. Are you saying these are the only scumpairs you're seriously considering at this point? How did CES get off the list entirely?

[Patrick]

My gut says Mgm is trying to ease his way onto busing CES after a whole game of defending him. I caught a similar vibe from how he acted around CDB to how he is acting now.

[Patrick]

And what the heck would I gain from that. If I 'bus' CES half the town wants to lynch me next. I wouldn't survive that by a long shot. If I am scum, my best bet would not be to bus my scum buddy but to lynch someone else and win.

This is silly. Obviously if you are scum with CES then what you want is to lynch someone else and win, but if that is looking impossible, then I think you would at least want to be on the CES lynch. I don't think your change to CES is especially gradual, I think it's more of a sudden reaction when it looks like CES is going to be lynched today. I have compared it to your fairly rapid change on ChannelDelibird day 3 after you defended him quite alot.

[Patrick]

Interesting dancing there.

I went to bed around 2:50 am last night, if I'm working it out right, MBL placed that vote at 4:18 am my time. Anyone else who was around, was MgM around then? MgM is from holland, so it would be at a time when he would be in bed I'd have thought. Still a strange looking vote to place; looked like a quicklynchy type one.

[Patrick]

You're kidding. Thesp was already voting you, has been for a while.

[Patrick]

Yes, England UK.

[Patrick]

I can't bring myself to get too worked up about it, though there is some inconsistency between the apparently still undecided MBL and MBL who placed a third vote without a comment. Still, if it an Mgm/MBL scumteam, I wouldn't expect a vote like that from MBL at that time. Completely unecessary. It couldn't be a well planned move between them, because the third vote sat there for over an hour. MBL, are you saying if you'd seen Mgm come online you'd have removed the vote?

I think this incident has semi ruled out Glork/Mgm as scum together, not that I thought it was likely before. I don't see why Glork would remove his vote if that pairing existed.

[Patrick]

Here still. Assuming the game won't be ending in the next 24-48 hours, which I don't think it will, we will know that at least one of MBL/CES has to be scum.

Mgm, will you be linking us to the spreadsheet?

Still most suspicious of CES, and he hasn't done anything that makes me feel better about him. I think he's close to given up.

[Patrick]

Waves hi, as a formality.

Glork, I'll have a think about it. Just getting in this post quickly.

[Patrick]

Is there anything else you wanted to hear from the other players? Any specific questions, general thoughts/comments?

I'll let you read what parts you want to read and I wouldn't mind seeing Mgm's thing as well. Actually I would be pretty interested in seeing Mgm's thing.

** Comment on laziness from before: I don't think Thesp has been playing any lazier than normal, nor am I playing lazier than normal. In fact I've put more into this game than my average game. The laziness that bothers me is mostly CES. If I had one/two votes on me, especially from varying people, and with others expressing suspicion of me, I'd be freaking out and trying my hardest to convince people that I shouldn't be lynched and that they should take me out of quicklynch range. Maybe that reflects just different playstyle between me and CES rather than a possible different alignment, but it feels like he's acting in the same that ChannelDelibird was acting when we had nailed him.**

MBL's analysis today is pretty good, and looks fairly protown, but I know he's thorough as scum and I wouldn't put it past him to do it as scum as well as town. I think if he is protown then voting CES like that was not the cleverest idea in the world, but equally if he is scum with Mgm then it would also have been a really sloppy attempt to snatch victory when just waiting a day or two would have been completely safe.

The pairing that worries me the most (after CES/Mgm which is currently my top one) is actually CES/MBL rather than Mgm/MBL. I think I mentioned before that there seems to be alot of genuine friction between MBL and Mgm. MBL pushed Mgm hard day 1 when he wasn't a top candidate, and let's remember if Mgm is scum he's the godfather. Would a goon set out to bus the GF early? I could see a GF busing heavily at a pinch because he can't be touched by cops but a goon busing the GF seems risky when you don't know what the poweroles are. And again later, there just seems to be alot of genuine angst between them. I'm still not too happy with Mgm's opening to today, because it looked pre planned, and not at all how I felt starting the day, and apparently not how Glork (who I think is protown) felt at the start of the day, which may indicate a different mindset. Pre planned busing or pre planned attempt to frame MBL with a slightly off nightkill? Or just unusual playstyle bleh. Glork, if you have some link you can see between Mgm and MBL, other than MBL's vote for CES, then you might as well tell us. For MBL/CES though, there is some distance between them but not as much, could be contrived. I'm not going to worry that much about it right now because in this case lynching CES is absolutely fine anyway. If CES were to be lynched as a godfather, MBL is very likely the other scum.

Taking it one step at a time, CES seems like the best lynch to me. How worried are you about that MBL/Thesp pairing you were talking about before? Because I've taken it mainly that CES has been blowing steam, but again, if there's some link between them then now is the time, we might not get another chance. Thesp has seemed pretty genuinely protown to me for a while now though.

[Patrick]

[Patrick]

Well. With Mgm and Glork not speedlynching we know at least one of MBL/CES is scum.

I would just add that although I agree they both kind of backdoored their ways onto it, I think Mgm did so as well, just he started a little late.

[Patrick]

Feh. I don't think there's much going on anymore, so I'll put a third vote on CES in about 30 hours unless something big happens. Would have said 24 except I know I probably won't be able to reach a computer at that time. I'm fairly convinced he's scum who's just given up and most of my likely scumpairs include him.

[Patrick]

Do you fear an MBL/Glork pairing?

[Patrick]

Ok if it's up today.

[Patrick]

The problem again with that is you seem to be assuming that scum will hardly ever bus each other in lylo which simply isn't true. Just because someone expresses an interest in lynching someone doesn't mean they can't be scum together. Also, MGM/Thesp is off the table as a pairing.

[Patrick]

Glork and Patrick, what the heck are you guys waiting for?

I was waiting for Mgm's analysis, obviously.

I'll follow through on what I said I'd do though and

Vote: CES

. Hopefully the game won't be over when I wake up.

[Patrick]

Oh my. MBL or Glork. And we are lucky that CES was the godfather, if he'd been the goon, we'd probably have been going after Mgm today, who we now know is innocent. The computer at home has been taken away so I'm posting from the public library, so I don't have much time. Hopefully comp will be back this evening, but if not, this is the heads up.

He also states in post 1762: "Actually, Thespscum means that Glork has to be town, and I have to be town, due to the lack of quicklynch." That sounds like he didn't quicklynch on purpose to look more innocent (but it depends on the then available wagons)

Eh? That's not an attempt to look more innocent, that was basic correction of CES on a mistake of logic. You cannot be serious.

I've seen Glork as town for most of the game. Certainly it's clear that he was a big tipping point against CDB, whereas MBL arrived later when CDB was in big trouble anyway. As soon as stable access returns I'll read over yesterday's events again.

[Patrick]

I looked back over Fritzler's posts. It's interesting, their might just be something in this idea that he investigated Glork as innocent. Day 2 he's basically attacking anyone who goes near Thesp. Included FoSing Glork. Asks Thesp who the play is and makes a point of saying that he was not asking Glork. Day 3, he then asks Glork who he wants to lynch. Tangible difference.

Thinking about it, I think if he had a guilty on CDB he'd have voted him earlier or hinted in some way. If he had a guilty on someone else, he'd surely have claimed after CDB fakeclaimed, to net us two scumbags. I could easily see him investigating Glork, since on day 2 Glork had been going after 1) The guy Fritz had innocent 2) The guy Adele had innocent and 3) Adele herself. I think the only other person to really fit that bill was me, but I at least didn't hammer Thesp. I really wish Fritz had said a bit more now.

[Patrick]

Because yesterday I was more suspicious of CES than MBL and thought you were his most likely scumbuddy. The situation is fairly dramatically different today.

[Patrick]

What about the first question. If Glork is likely innocent, I need to pick between you and MBL today...

I'm not ready to go all out against MBL, as I'm not sure enough that he's scum and Glork's town. I'm just leaning in that direction. It would be nice to hear from MBL.

[Patrick]

Not right at this moment. Probably will later. I'll answer specific queries of course. Of the ones you brought up in post 1924 I answered the second one, as to the first I can't deny nudging MBL onto the Zindaras wagon and away from the CES wagon, as I was more suspicious of Zindaras. I didn't find CES especially protown but most of the stuff said against him seemed like something anyone could say against him in any game (in previous games he played that same way and was town). Of all the people I actually thought Thesp made the best case against him.

[Patrick]

I read those couple of pages of Moses in Egypt, then skimmed the rest of the game. It's a reasonable point to bring up I guess. I usually tend to have a better voting record on paper when I'm scum. I'm interested in MBL's replies especially about his stance on Thesp.

MBL, also, just to revisit a question Ether asked you:

If he comes up scum and I'm dead, look into Nightfall, CES, Zindy and eventually MgM later in the game.

Why these people, who you didn't mention again and include Nightfall, specifically?

This post was meant to be longer btw. I started looking at interactions of Glork and MBL with known scum, but I always start too late, and I know when I'm getting too tired/lazy to finish it properly. I'll get that up tomorrow.

[Patrick]

I've taken a look at what both known scumbags have said about Glork and MBL.

CDB of course didn't give us a whole load of stuff to work with. Day 1 I see nothing significant on both the living guys, though he did switch his random vote to CES. Or at least, it seemed random. Day 2 he's sort of cautiously attacking Glork over Glork's weirdness. Early posts kind of give me slight whiny scum vibe, like he's unwilling to allow the potential oppotunity on Glork to slip away, and wants to make it completely clear that Glork won't receive a free pass ( CDB's posts 11 and 12.) Sticks Glork on scum list but then goes after Thesp. Another tiny dig at Glork over his overcertainty. But really, after the first couple of posts, I can't get a good read on whether it's weak distancing or weak attacking an innocent. Unless I'm missing something, CDB never commented at all on scumminess or townishness for MBL. No opinion given.

I have to say MBL's posts towards CDB seem scumbuddyish. There's alot of critisism of CDB's play, "lameness, lack of curiosity, attempting to appear more active etc" but he's always going after other players instead. Looks like putting distance between them, leaving himself every opening to attack him later, maybe even nudges (or bad luck if MBL is town). Glork only really mentions passing suspicion of CDB until his steam of consciousness posts, where he seems to steadily progress to being certain CDB is scum. Unlikely CDB was getting lynched without that, I have to say.


CES's early play seemed to contain several weird FoSes of people. FoSed me for "misrepresenting Thesp" FoSed CDB and IH for "mischaracterising the wagon". FoSed then voted Glork on day 2 but it's not clear why. Random note as I look back through his posts: In his post 101 he states that Thesp has been attacking CDB and it doesn't look like distancing. Later pushes on Thesp for full days because he apparently thinks Thesp was distancing. I didn't even notice this first time round, but it's a clear contradiction.

Later on he decides Glork is protown, and some of his posts towards Glork look placating/sucking up. Glork suggests Fritz may have investigated him on night 3, CES is the only one to challenge that. On MBL, I don't really see CES expressing an opinion on him until pretty late on, when he states that he can't read him. He followed Glork onto an MBL vote though, stating one reason which seemed completely made up. Then unvotes him after Glork unvotes. Weird play. To be honest my reaction to seeing something like that from known scum is that he was following a townie onto another townie. Looking for innocent blood and deferring responsibility to another innocent. But I know that can't be the case. Overall CES interacts alot more with Glork than MBL, and moving into day 5 it still looks like he's trying to placate him and get him on his side.

MBL's early comments in his summary posts about CES are fairly noncommital. CES more active and chirpy than usual, and focussing on an Andrew lynch. This CES meta thing about being more active as scum has been brought up a few times by several people. Glork and Mgm, can you remind me if this is true? Both of you have more experience with CES than me.

Not too much on CES from MBL first 3 days, gets on him day 4, stated reason is a slipup which wasn't really a slipup. Keeps his vote on CES for a long time. Still slightly curious of his post 78 in that he keeps his vote on CES when Zindaras is apparently his clear top suspect at 40% likely to be scum compared to the 30% of CES. Then moves onto Zindaras a few posts later, then back onto CES with the Zindie modkill. Overall, some pressure on CES day 4, varying in strength though.

Glork is also attacking CES on and off throughout the game. Some small suspicions of CES day 2 but also a "reasonably protown" assessment. Any chance you could articulate how CES's play looked protown?

Jumps around on CES in his steam of consciousness posts, settles on CES as possible scum.

He's certainly poking at CES on day 4, demanding more content from him, though mostly without success. CES is now high on his LoS. Later eases off due to his meta on CES and goes after others. I think I'm starting to just summarise stuff now so I'll say just say that the interactions between Glork and CES seem fairly genuine. I suppose it's possible though that he was nudging/nutkicking him as I suggested MBL might have been to CDB.

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Just looking again at the massive Glork/MBL spat, I honestly would have said the most likely possibility for it was two townies arguing. Both sound very genuine to me but one isn't. The last scumbag is a tricky bastard.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

I'll probably look at yesterday after eating lunch. One of MBL and Glork would have known that this situation would likely crop up today, and may have been preparing for it in advance.

[Patrick]

~Yawn~

I'm tending towards Patrick as the last scum which makes those last lines all the more scummy...

What last lines are scummy?

[Patrick]

Actually, I can't stomach the idea that MBL would leave me alive after yesterday. He had no idea I would change my mind today and leaving such a vocal player alive that wants to lynch you is almost certainly suicide.

Absolute WIFOM reason for deciding MBL is probably town. I could just as easily ask why I would have killed CrashTextDummie if I was scum when he was completely convinced of me being protown.

With Glork likely investigated (I still need to check), I'm tending towards Patrick as the last scum which makes those last lines all the more scummy...

Note that I am the one who actually brought that point into the spotlight. And you apparently haven't even checked it yet to decide if he really was investigated or how likely it is. You don't fill me with confidence in your play Mgm.

[Patrick]

I've seen people acknowledge their own scummy behavior and bring up points that could be used against themselves just to look more innocent.

Again, what scummy behaviour have I brought up or acknowledged? What are you referring to?

[Patrick]

Glork, let's suppose for a moment that MBL and CES were both scum.
Why didn't they push or even try to justify an MBL lynch in some way? Lynching CES the GF means I became confirmed innocent. They would've had more wiggle room and no confirmed innocents today, if they gave up MBL instead - a lot better position to be in.

As I remember it CES did push for an MBL lynch.

The day 2 no lynch argument against me is something with which I'm thoroughly bored of arguing with you about. I have made it perfectly clear that I did not think Ether could be lynched because she had it in her power to hammer Thesp. Certainly if she was scum and Thesp town, she'd have hammered him. If anything, piling extra votes on Ether would likely have just encouraged a Thesp hammer, regardless of her alignment. I was more interested in deciding whether or not to hammer Thesp. With the hindsight that both Thesp and Ether were protown, I'd like you to explain how holding off voting either of them is meant to be scummy. (And in a post today, you said that both MBL and Patrick held off hammering an innocent Thesp, leaving Glork suspect).

Hi MBL. Thanks for the exagerated surprise and outrage. It's entertaining. I admit to my vote on mgm being useless, since I didn't plan on lynching him. And despite the fact that Ether would never have been lynched, maybe I should have voted her. Couldn't be any worse than voting mgm I suppose.

Here's one of those examples of you admitting something scummy, Patrick

No, I admitted to being indecisive. I apologised for not carrying out the token gesture of voting Ether, whom I felt couldn't realisticaly be lynched at that point anyway. I didn't at any point say that I'd acted scummy. And in the general sense, I'm not sure I even agree with the "scumtell" anyway. If I'm being attacked, I'll always try to counter it with logical arguments and explain what I was thinking, but if I think that someone has a valid attack on me (which I don't tend to think all that often I grant you but it does happen) I'll concede the point and move on rather than being a stubborn idiot. I don't think that would be a scumtell.

[Patrick]

And incidentally Mgm, if you strongly believe in that "scumtell", what did you think of Glork's post 464 first paragraph? He admits that his Andrew vote looks scummy. Should we run him up for it? Does it make him scum? No it just means he admitted it and moved on rather than trying to defend something that couldn't really be defended. I don't agree with this scumtell you're claiming.

[Patrick]

I tend to agree with that. It seems like a reasonable move if they are scum together, and it always seemed likely one was getting lynched yesterday. In that case they'd rather it was MBL. Then nobody gets cleared and everyone is paranoid about whether he was trying to quicklynch. Makes CES look better, sets up MBL/Patrick and MBL/Mgm connections, and forces us to keep considering MBL/Thesp.

[Patrick]

I think the whole thing about whether or not people realised Fritzler was a cop hasn't been as interesting to me as to some people. At one point we were asking everyone whether or not they had spotted it, but scum can easily lie and say they hadn't spotted Fritz as cop even if they had. CES claimed he wasn't onto Fritz, and he turned out to be scum. Only him and his scumbuddy knows who was onto Fritzler. I'm satisfied with most of Glork's responses over the past few pages, but I think I too need it clarifying when exactly you claim to have had that duh moment and realised Fritzler was a cop, because you seem to have two different times given.

[Patrick]

I understand the answer now. It wasn't crystal clear before, but ok. He claims he saw it first time he read Fritz's post.

[Patrick]

See post 1738.

[Patrick]

Mgm, you got anything to say about your "MBL would never have killed Thesp" theory now that it's been shown to be WIFOM? Because if you're still fixated on me, that needs to be solved sooner or later.

[Patrick]

Even if he was happy to kill Thesp, I don't believe he would've been first to follow Thesp and wagon his own GF (creating two confirmed innocents in the process - only one of which he could kill). If he sacrificed himself suspicions against CES would've eased quite a bit considering pairing ideas and he would've left Thesp and Me both on the suspect lists meaning we would've had at least one more suspect in the mix today.

You keep talking about, "MBL would have sacrificed himself yesterday if he was scum." What would you expect him to do exactly? "Hey guys I'm scum lynch me now plzkthxbai". And it's been pointed out that his quick vote for CES may have been at attempt to do exactly that, whilst putting distance between himself and CES.

You can of course double-guess anything, but I'd rather refer to both our ideas as theories rather than discrediting one or the other as WIFOM (and I'll be looking that up, because it doesn't look like correct use of the term).

Your theory is complete and utter WIFOM. I haven't made anything out of the nightkill; I don't think it points strongly in one direction, and I'm unwilling to put so much weight on a nightkill as you seem to be.

Oh yeah. Vote: Patrick

When people blow holes in your logic, it would be better if you addressed it rather than carrying on as if it works just fine. Being confirmed innocent does not give you the right to be lazy, or use sloppy logic, especially in this situation.

[Patrick]

I don't see the point in no lynching anyway. If scum choose, they can no kill and we're in the same situation the next day. Or scum can kill someone if they think it works to their advantage.

[Patrick]

Hypothetical, people.

The point is to illustrate that letting a WIFOMy nightkill action rule your suspicions is a bad, bad idea

.

[Patrick]

*sigh*

Please answer his questions when you have the time. We're at all or nothing here.

Also, if it doesn't come into your answers to those, please address the point in the first paragraph of post 2004. You've said that if MBL/CES is the pairing, MBL would have preferred to sacrifice himself. So what's your take on MBL's quick third vote for CES?

As for recursive reasoning, it can be avoided. Adele also made the mistake ages ago in this game of applying WIFOM wrongly. ChannelDelibird also did it and got ripped to shreds by Thesp. Looking at nightkills is usually a risky way of finding scum. I guarantee you if you look at a bunch of games here, you will not see nightkill WIFOM being heavily used in looking for scum. In this specific case, as far as I can see, both Thesp and Mgm had MBL as their top suspect out of the three remaining. Both could conseivably have changed their minds. The difference is that Thesp is the better player, thus more likely to find the truth, especially with his form in this game. That seems to me the most obvious explanation for why he died.

[Patrick]

I did answer his questions. Each time I said something I outlined my train of thought along the way. There's no point in repeating what I said, it doesn't take too long to read what I posted earlier today.

No, you've made some points and they've been rebutted. They didn't just stand untouched.

The fact you consider Thesp a better player than me is another reason to keep that vote where it is. If you are in fact the one doing the night killing you want to keep the lesser threat (me) or remove the most dangerous of the two -- in your opinion Thesp.

Ok, I'll give you this, I haven't done a survey of your other games. But based on this game -- Thesp has been much better than you. He caught two scumbags. You stubbornly defended both dead scumbags. If your logic in this game is anything to judge your play strength on, then Thesp is a better player than you, sorry. Let's ask both other guys here who they think is the better player. When they both say Thesp, you can eliminate entirely that reason/excuse to keep your vote on me.

He couldn't possibly have known I would change my mind today. Whatever gave you the idea? I was acting like a rabid hound hellbent on killing him for 2 or 3 days straight. If you seriously think you can convince someone like that to change their opinion, I'd love to know how you would handle that.

I repeat, both you and Thesp had MBL as their top suspect. Both could conseivably have changed their minds. And I don't think I need to point out that Thesp can be an incredibly stubborn player as well.

Yes, recursive reasoning can be avoided, but going with your explanation of events isn't neccessarily the way to resolve that.

If you are as experienced as you claim, then you must surely know that basing big decisions off nightkills is rarely used or encouraged because of how risky it is.

[Patrick]

Glork, MBL SAY SOMETHING! I'm tired of listening to Patrick's whining.

This is stupid. We're playing a game of mafia, and I'm not whining, I'm rebutting your points and asking questions. You are just neatly avoiding answering stuff, and that has to stop.

No, my reasoning is also based on the fact that MBL did nothing what I would've expected a scumbag to do yesterday, which by extension leaves Patrick as the only possibly scum.

You said that MBL if scum would attempt to sacrifice himself.

What do you think of his quick third vote on CES?

Also, what did I do yesterday that you would expect from scum?

[Patrick]

And you are trying to rebut absolutely everything I say, even the reasonable bits and pieces, which is not what you did previously in the game. (The admit to scummy stuff I talked about earlier)

No I'm not. There are very few reasonable bits and pieces that you've presented against me, but I'm rebutting the stuff that doesn't make sense.

His vote wasn't the third. It was the second. And I find that second vote, decidedly non-scummy.

It seems you weren't paying attention to the game. Thesp voted CES first. Then Glork voted CES second. Then MBL put a quick third vote on CES with no comment. Did you miss this?

Another "admit to scummy behavior "-post. You say Glork is easy to read and to expose my thoughts you need to ask questions. Subcontiously or not, you actually use the word "ignore" when it comes to discussing CES.

I don't full understand this. But you are contadicting yourself; first you accuse me of trying to rebut everything and not "admitting to scummy posts", then you say that I'm doing too much "admitting to scummy posts". Which is it?

[Patrick]

Still trying to decide between Glork and Patrick. Glork has seemed significantly more scummy this game, but there's probably a 60% chance he's been investigated. I've never seen Patrick as scum for comparison, but he sounds consistently reasonable this game, just hasn't gotten results. I also recall Patrick getting angry at one point and it read very pro-town, but I'd have to see if he's capable of feigning indignance effectively as scum. I'm going to read some games where Patrick was scum and see what I can learn, I guess, because the way Glork has played, I just can't bring myself to vote Patrick over him right now.

Interesting. Let's look at your comments on the possible Fritz investigation at the start of today:

I don't know what to say about (1). Glork would be the most likely investigation by Fritz, but there's no overt sign that Fritz got a result. If I had to decide between two equally scummy people I might let that thin possibility sway me, but more likely I'd find something else to break the tie.

Before you were pretty dismissive of the idea, calling it a thin possibility that you would maybe use in a tiebreak if you couldn't find anything else. Now you suddenly say there is a 60% chance Glork was investigated (which is pratically the same as saying 60% chance Glork is confirmed innocent). What caused this change of heart?

[Patrick]

Are you saying you didn't know that Fritz can be an obvious cop before Glork mentioned it? Because you were in Speedy KQ's Big NY game where Fritz was obvious as cop. You were even in KM 1 for a smallish amount of time where he was obvious as cop.

[Patrick]

Mgm, I've already explained that I will admit it if I actually believe I'm wrong or scummy in some case, rather than being stubborn. It doesn't mean anything. You've accused me of doing this, whilst ignoring cases of the other two doing the same thing. Why are you only looking at my posts for it?

As for rebutting things you say, I rebut what doesn't make sense. Most of what you've said against me doesn't make sense. Hence, alot of rebutting. I answered stuff you said against me earlier, and you just consensed it down to, "Patrick is whining". Is there some rule about which of your bad accusations I can respond to and which ones I have to just let slide?

You've twice accused me of slips today. I have no idea how you are suggesting I slipped. I typed CES in the third quote by accident, maybe because I mentioned him three times in the previous answer. The "ignore" thing was intentional; I said that several people somewhat ignored CES and passed it off as how he usually plays. How am I supposed to have slipped up exactly?

[Patrick]

Ugh. Everything goes confusing again. I'll try to take this in order.

...what was that you were saying about CDB? Why did you drop the CDB-hate altogether and decide to audible to Glork?

Out of all the players sucking on day 1, you were the most obvious one to me. You also started the spectrumvoid bandwagon based on a die roll. You started day 2 apparently planning to play in the same way. So I decided to attack you and see if you'd actually play properly. It worked. Yay. My attack on you wasn't prolonged because I found you more protown after that.

Patrick's thoughts on Fritz are interesting, too. I would suggest reading Post 963 and the posts which follow immediately. MBL and Mgm: Do either of you see this as a tacit confession of knowing Fritz's role?

I posted that opinion of Fritz without even fully realising what I was commenting on it seems. I had not worked out his role. If I was scum who'd actually worked it out (and was planning on denying it later), I find it more likely that I'd have not mentioned that at all and just said "I can't read him".

...the rest of Patrick's D3 posts are "CDB feels like scum who has given up" until he finally puts a hammering vote on before the end of the day.

This was kind of the tipping point against him for me. I couldn't fathom a protown powerole being so apathetic at that point. I'd have thought a powerole would have tried to do something to avoid the humiliation of being lynched as a powerole in an open setup. Only scum could benefit from playing like that towards the end.

Patrick, do you have any explanation to offer as to why you posted so incredibly little analysis on either CDB or CES during the early game? Do you have anything to say to the fact that, while most of your comments towards CDB were of the scathing "I think he's not contributing" variety, you never FoS'd or voted him, and you even started off D2 by voting me for undercontributing and acting weird?

The last part was already answered. I genuinely couldn't really read CES and didn't know what to do about him. I found his logic to be lacking, similarly to LO2 and the open c9 modded by you. I found him similarly oppotunistic. I found him posting a similar amount (or lack of) content. I didn't detect anything particularly from the tone of his posts. So yes, I just shrugged at him most of the game. CDB, I assume, was following a strategy of lurking and avoiding attention, and it worked, for a time. I nearly always found someone more interesting or suspicious than him, and didn't really give him much attention. I think that might have happened to most people as well. But yeah. I can't offer any explantion that is going to take away all doubt. I just didn't pay them enough attention, even as Thesp was saying, "I strongly get the impression that people are ignoring CES just because he's being CES" or something similar.


I don't find the analysis of me to be oppotunistic, since I haven't really gotten results and there's nothing special in my interactions with either scum that means I couldn't been busing. If I was scum with CDB, I'd definitely have wanted to be on his lynchwagon, maybe even earlier than I was. MBL's switch over was the one bothering me the most actually. It feels like when Mgm was attacking Glork he was going hard after Glork, then when Mgm voted me he's looking for ways to slide over to me, including a sudden new interest in a possible cop investigation. That said, his last posts against Glork give me the opposite impression of what I'd expect scum to do, so I'm really lost now. It feels risky for him to bother antagonising Glork in that way when he could continue to slide towards voting me.

I'd also like to say that I think Mgm is suffering from a SEVERE case of confirmation bias. Feel free to disagree with that, but I don't think he's even close to analysing this game objectively. I think he's decided I'm scum, and is trying to make absolutely everything he can point in that direction, while patently ignoring things that don't point in that direction. I don't think any one of his points against me makes sense. This is fairly depressing in itself.

[Patrick]

Mgm, if Glork said, "I think the fact that Patrick's name begins with a P is a scumtell, what do you guys think?" would you agree with that? Do you actually plan on looking at anything at all that points towards me not being scum? Are you even capable of doing that anymore? Why are you selectively avoiding topics?

If you are so set on using the WIFOM of last night's kill against me, then I want you to explain why exactly you think I would have killed CTD on night 4 if I was scum. Not something I'd usually bring up, but you are apparently a big fan of using nightkills to make crucial decisions.

[Patrick]

Also, if you could avoid basing absolutely everything you say on the assumption that I'm scum, that would be fairly helpful.

[Patrick]

Considering that you've spent the whole day going after a townie, Patrick, I don't think Mgm's likely to heed your admonitions.

Do you mean the whole game? Otherwise I don't get what you're saying.

Who am I to argue with you, MBL? If you want me to consider you as a scumbag, I'd be happy to oblige.

Pretty sure that's not what he was saying.

[Patrick]

Patrick, Ether didn't make any new arguments at all regarding Nightfall between March 17th and April 19th. What explains your shift in opinion?

Actually she did. She made a list of several points against Nightfall. She had to redo it because it got lost in the crash remember?

[Patrick]

Greetings all. If I don't post much or at all in the next day or two, it's because I'm in pain (minor operation took place some half hour ago). For now, I'm a bit puzzled on MBL's reply to Glork's question about whether or not he was being oppotunistic towards me. It seems like he went to some length to avoid answering. I don't think it's that hard a question to answer, I even remember kind of answering it earlier without it being asked to me.

[Patrick]

I should be able to post some answers by the end of tuesday.

This is mainly what I've been waiting for. I assume he meant this tuesday.

[Patrick]

With the hindsight that both Thesp and Ether were protown, I'd like you to explain how holding off voting either of them is meant to be scummy.

Why do you only target me with your "admitting to being wrong" is a scumtell?

You keep talking about, "MBL would have sacrificed himself yesterday if he was scum." What would you expect him to do exactly? "Hey guys I'm scum lynch me now plzkthxbai". And it's been pointed out that his quick vote for CES may have been at attempt to do exactly that, whilst putting distance between himself and CES.

Also, what did I do yesterday that you would expect from scum?

If you are so set on using the WIFOM of last night's kill against me, then I want you to explain why exactly you think I would have killed CTD on night 4 if I was scum. Not something I'd usually bring up, but you are apparently a big fan of using nightkills to make crucial decisions.
-----------------------

Those are the main ones that come to mind right now, though Glork's is also important. Also, I've finished reading the last Harry Potter.

[Patrick]

Mgm, please give this game the time it deserves. I do not want a deadline.

[Patrick]

When it came down to the svwagon, you found her scummy but stayed off it cause IH was on it, it seems.

I don't remember finding her all that scummy, though I'm sure she wasn't inspiring either. It wasn't just IH's presence on there bothering me, but many of the votes on that wagon.

I don't see at all how saying, "Today Glork got his act together" assumes his township. You seem to be making that accusation about so many things this game. I also don't know what is unusual about asking why I was apparently connected to Adele or Mgm since Glork had suggested connections with one of them.

The "Thesp contradiction" was not actually a contradiction.

This is a pretty half-assed analysis of the most important issue in the game. It reads to me like you started with your conclusion and worked backwards. I reread both Glork's and my interactions with CES and I think if anything his looks like distancing, avoidance, protection of a GF and suspect behavior. I don't see how you could reasonably construe my attacks and votes for CES as distancing.

The fact that you don't like the conclusion doesn't mean it's half assed analysis. I actually think your attitude towards CDB looks more like distancing than your attitude towards CES.

And then you try to sway Mgm with some cocked-up argument about my third vote on CES, bizarrely asking Mgm about it five times, which is kind of out of character for you:

You've had to argue with Mgm too, and it does often seem to need several repetitions of certain things before he addresses it. He suggested a manner in which he would expect scum to play yesterday, and said you didn't play that way (and that I did?). So I've pointed out that your third vote on CES could well have been an attempt to put distance between the two of you, maybe even to get yourself lynched and allow CES to come through in the endgame. If you want to explain to me why it can't be that, then actual arguments would be great. Of course, repeating stuff is not at all out of character for me.

And finally, a little revisionist history:

"If I was scum with CDB, I'd definitely have wanted to be on his lynchwagon, maybe even earlier than I was. MBL's switch over was the one bothering me the most actually."

No, you found me likely protown at the time. Now you've changed your tune.

True, I've changed my mind, but I'm not sure what you're trying to show.

[Patrick]

I also recall Patrick getting angry at one point and it read very pro-town, but I'd have to see if he's capable of feigning indignance effectively as scum. I'm going to read some games where Patrick was scum and see what I can learn, I guess,

Did you get anything out of this?

[Patrick]

1) Can you please tell me the names of two completed games in which you were scum? I was unable to find any when I went looking.

My wiki page might have been a good place to look. My 4 completed games as scum:
Newbie 224 (first game ever, may not be terribly useful)
Pie c9 (the first pie c9, modded by mith)
Vengeful mafia (the one modded by Romanus)
Ben and Jerry's Mafia (most recent)

I find it curious that throughout much of the game you've been saying, "Patrick is getting angry that's very townish", yet you're only now bothering to check to see if it actually means anything at all.

2) Please explain your thought process when you changed your mind from Thesp is scum to Thesp shouldn't be hammered. Explain what Ether addressed (see previous post) about your contradiction about Thesp's typical/atypical play.

I addressed Ether's question in my post 109. His play early on day 2 felt out of character, as his attack on me continued I started to change my mind on that even though the specific attack didn't make sense. I've been the innocent victim of Thesp rampaging more than once before and it felt reminiscent of how he managed to get me lynched as town in newbie 289. The, "we gotta lynch someone" stuff didn't sway me, I'd do the same thing if given the choice again. I think no lynching gave us easily as much information as lynching in this case.

3) How did you find me "likely town" D4 after the CDB lynch if my behavior towards him was "scumbuddyish" as you claim to believe now?

This is a good question. There were several people at that point looking worse than you. Many of your posts still look fairly town to me, but I know one out of you/Glork is scum, and Glork has seemed more town to me throughout the game, before even thinking about the possibility that Fritz might have investigated him.

4) "The only people so far who have really "gotten results" would be Glork and Thesp." Please explain your statement, made while deciding to lynch CES, which looks suspiciously like a suckup (not to mention false).

You must be joking. That was a somewhat throaway comment after you said that I haven't gotten results, where I'm vaguely pointing out that very few people have got results. Thesp and Glork, look to me like the people who actually "busted" CDB, the only known scum at the time. Who else are you saying should have been on that list?

5) You gave Glork a pass since early D2 and said "If he's scum he's doing better than other times I've seen him." Well, if you're town then he's scum, so this is about the most relevant observation I can find in this game. Please detail what you saw about him that was obvious scum in other games that you don't see in this one.

You continuously misuse the phrase "free pass". You seem to be under the illusion that just because someone hasn't attacked someone much, that means that they haven't been watching them and discerning their alignment. I haven't seen stuff in other games where he was scum that scream "obvious scum". I do think his entire manner is consistent with how I've seen him play as town, as well as his tone. After CDB turned up scum, I was more confident in Glork being town for turning the tide against CDB when he could have easily left him alone and let Thesp be the only pusher, looking like a weirdo. You've made much of his supposed certainty and "bluster" on various people, but I don't see how it's particularly different to how he plays normally. For example you went on for ages about how Zindaras gave us pretty much zero material yet Glork changed his mind on him from thinking he was scum to thinking he was town. I thought it was clear he'd switched mainly because of the attitudes towards Zindaras from certain people (mainly you), and whilst I didn't agree with his specific assessment, it was correct.

6)

My gut says Mgm is trying to ease his way onto busing CES after a whole game of defending him. I caught a similar vibe from how he acted around CDB to how he is acting now.

Please elaborate on this.

Not sure quite what to add. I had a feeling that Mgm was trying to defend CES initially by going for you, then when it looked more likely CES was getting lynched he was starting to create openings to get himself onto the CES wagon without looking too inconsistent. This is how he acted towards CDB too -- he defended him then changed at the last minute.

7) Why the fivefold harping at Mgm about my vote for CES (see prev post), which I clearly explained? If you were really curious about my alignment, why didn't you ask ME about the vote?

Addressed this in my last post. We already had your explanation on the table, I was trying to prise out of Mgm what he thought about it.

a) Please explain to me how you made your sudden shift D4, and

I found you fairly protown earlier, the way you were asking lots of questions struck me that way somehow. I think you're overstating my apparent shift here though. Although I didn't find you as clean as I did previously, I didn't sheep onto a Nightfall/MBL pairing (I actually think I said I still lean town, and that your defences of Nightfall didn't strongly look like scum defending scum). Two things that did make me wonder more about you that day than before were 1) The more I looked at Ether's not hammering of Thesp the more I liked it, so she fell quite alot down my list as a suspect, and 2) Your vote for CES didn't feel quite right.

b) how you've approached this day and reached an incorrect conclusion so rapidly.

I approached this day by rereading. Nothing too out of the ordinary. I did not put alot of weight in the Thesp nightkill. You can assert that I've reached an incorrect conclusion, but that hardly carries much weight as an argument.

9 ) Finally, please explain your scumhunting record this game. If you're town, the scum trio is {Glork, CES, CDB}. You poked at Glork for about a third of a D2 before deciding to trust him unfailingly for the rest of the game. You ignored CES, claiming to not be able to read him, calling him "annoying and spammy" and your first vote on him was yesterday's hammer. You called CDB a lurker and ignored him until four people slapped him over the head with a fish, then you placed your first vote on him late.

You questioned Glork briefly, and didn't question CES and CDB at all. Despite not helping find scum, you ended up on both of their wagons. Explain.

Saying that I've trusted Glork unfailingly for the rest of the game makes it sound like I've ignored him. If I thought there was something he'd done that was scummy, I'd have pointed it out, asked him questions about it. The rest somewhat overlaps with what Glork already asked me about when he analysed my posts. You can charge me with having little success in this game if you want. I've already explained most of my thought processes surrounding both of them. I would add that I've treated CES in the way I usually have in the past, like in the open game c9, and lights out 2, where we were both town.

[Patrick]

I don't see how I dodged the question. I've said that his play methods and tone seem genuine and protown to me, obviously meaning that feeling isn't present (for me at least) in games where he's been scum. He often seems to be the driving force/backbone in this game, and although you've thrown alot of doubt on it, I don't particularly see any inconsistency or thought processes that look like they couldn't have happened.

Being "correct" on a player or two is not indicative of alignment... or anything town can use to separate scum from town.

The

timing

of his attack on CDB and manner in which it was carried out makes me think Glork is protown, not merely the fact that he was right on CDB. I feel like I must have said this about a hundred times. It's a similar reason to the one for thinking Thesp was town. The fact that he was right about Zindaras doesn't particularly sway me, I pointed that out when talking about the case you've made against him.

Throw in the reasonable chance that Fritzler investigated him innocent, and I can basically see several reasons to think he's town, and no particularly compelling reasons to think he's scum. I was almost ready to vote for you after you started trying to create ways in which you could move over to me after Mgm voted me, but the posts where you then went back to attacking Glork after he attacked me still put me in a slight amount of doubt. And LO2 has made me paranoid about obvious looking endgame decisions. Right now though, it seems like you're trying to make it sound like I've been incredibly inconsistent when I haven't at all.

[Patrick]

Stoofy

can you prod Mgm for us? Sorry to ask, but we can't achieve a scum lynch until he starts playing.

[Patrick]

Please share that information with us. Because if the no lynch garnered useful info, I want to use it.

It showed us who didn't want to hammer Thesp. I personally decided, correctly, that Ether was town mainly because of that. Thesp decided, correctly that I was town based on that. The next day, we made a more informed lynch and killed scum instead of town. Obviously a good thing.

You said MBL's switch was bothering you when it clearly wasn't, because you declared him town at the time. Your reflecting your current ideas on an earlier day when you actually had different thoughts.

It didn't bother me so much then, it does now. I've said that there were plenty of people looking worse then.

So his day one play is pretty usual but he was acting out of character? How exactly is that not a contradiction?

Read my posts in reply. His day 1 play was pretty usual. His early day 2 play was not (generally feeble, going after non contributors). Then later in day 2 his play become more normal and I gradually became less suspicious. I have explained this before.

Hindsight is nice, but you couldn't possibly have known for sure he was town back then (unless you are a scumbag). Not lynching an innocent early in the game is not a strong indication of someone's alignment. Not lynching innocents (and later using that action by sucking up to them or proclaiming their innocence with a fake investigation is actually common scum tactic)

Scum win the game by getting innocents lynched. If I were scum I could have lynched him and received little real attention for it, whilst taking out a good protown player who was going after CDB, who we now know is scum. I did not suck up to Thesp in any way, I thought he was innocent after CDB turned up scum and I was right. I don't know what you're getting at with the "fake investigation" part. I don't know of any fake investigations.

Because you are appearing to use it to make discussion about certain points you don't like die out (I haven't seen this from MBL or Glork). Just saying your wrong means you don't have to give an elaborate explanation to justify your action.

Why would I come out with some elaborate explanation instead of telling the truth? This is insane.

Of course not, calling attention that way would've called attention to the fact he was trying to derail the CES wagon. I would've expected something more subtle from ScumMBL. Voting CES might've done the trick, if it wasn't for the fact he was trying to save him especially when it is a "quick third vote". You can just about expect someone to put on a fourth and get him lynched (bandwagons don't often derail when they reach -1 status). I would've expected him to draw attention to himself (the last in a way that doesn't show he's trying to get CES off the chopping block -- after all, he was already being voted) or perhaps another player.

He did draw attention to himself. A third vote without comment is obviously going to draw attention in that situation.

Why is that question so important to you? I came to the conclusion you were scum by way of elimination Glork investigated innocent by Fritzler (I'll come back to that in one of the other questions) and MBL for the way he acted yesterday. That leaves you and all the actions of yours throughout the game MBL just posted about only strengthen that feeling.

Shrug, I just wondered. I actually think MBL behaved more like scum than I did yesterday.

I don't know why you or anyone else would kill CTD. I used the Thesp kill to make a crucial decision because it was a crucial kill decision for the scum and that kill says a lot about the scum who committed it.

This is silly. If you're so set on using nightkills to make crucial decisions you don't just leave certain ones out that don't suit you. The CTD nightkill was every bit as important as the Thesp one.

Also, I've been wrong just about everyone so far, so since I called him scum for a long time, common sense dictates I'm probably wrong about him too. The evidence against him would have to be pretty convincing - that OR some exonorating evidence regarding you.

This doesn't make sense. If I were to follow that logic then I'd vote Glork because I think he's less likely scum and I've been wrong about alot so far. This is backwards logic. You simply can't work like that. As for evidence that suggests I'm town, you won't find any if you're determined not to.

[Patrick]

I guess I should ask the same of Patrick and Glork--what do you think of the other guy's reasoning for trusting you?

Eh, not sure I can particularly remember it much, other than general gut feeling. I think it's a reasonable enough call to make, doesn't mean it couldn't come from scum trying to make a friend in the town, but I could see him doing it as town. In LO2 he was kind of similar; at some point he just said my posts sounded pretty genuine and didn't really ask me any questions or grill me at all.

[Patrick]

Tired after work, but I'm sure I can put together something coherent here.

I have to agree with Glork that MBL's stances on the possible Fritz investigation are inconsistent. I will reiterate that I didn't like the way MBL moved more towards me after Mgm voted me, citing the 60% figure, claiming to have just metagamed Fritz and "discovered" that Fritz is obvious as cop. But yeah, in general 60% chance of someone being confirmed innocent seems difficult to override.

you're going against this SIXTY PERCENT CHANCE THAT I AM GUARANTEED INNOCENT because you can't see any other way out of your current predicament.

If I was scum in a predicament I imagine I'd just vote Patrick considering, you know, he's the guy our confirmed innocent is voting for?

This has been an interesting aspect of this endgame for me, and in some ways has been keeping me from voting. MBL moved towards me when Mgm voted me, but when Glork did his analysis of me, MBL attacked him immediately, when it seems the easier route would have been to keep sitting on the fence. At this point he's strongly going after Glork, which seems a harder route for scum to take. If he came after me, he'd need to persuade Glork to switch to me. If he wants Glork lynched, he needs to persuade both myself and Mgm, and Mgm is on record saying he thinks Glork is 99% confirmed or something similar.

That said, simply switching over to me wouldn't be easy to do out of the blue, at least not in a game of this standard. It's possible MBL is scum still trying to keep me in doubt by semi defending me, and aiming for a stalemate >> deadline >> no lynch. The prospect of a no lynch scares me alot. I'd rather resolve this today.
------------------------------------------

To be honest, one of the biggest things that bothers me about Patrick is that he's seen you as protown all game. I can't fathom that.

I can... you know that our playstyles clash, but that does not mean that my playstyle clashes with other players. Patrick is savvy and intelligent enough to be able to tell the difference between protown Glork and scum Glork. There are certain things that I only have EVER done as protown, and I have done them in this game. Among what he mentioned were the lengthy and overdetailed stream-of-consciousness analysis of the entire game, and my "it's you or me, and one of us is going down" attitude.

Well... I *think* I have an idea of how Glork behaves as town, but it might fly out of the window if he ends up being scum in this game. I will add again for MBL's benefit that I haven't blindly trusted him, but actually think I've correctly discerned his alignment. If it bothers you, I have behaved in similar ways towards certain people in other games: Towards Glork in that mini he mentioned earlier, where he was town (which is a weaker example since I was inexperienced), in LO2 I had a consistent and correct protown read on PJ the entire game from start to finish, and similarly with PJ in Old Maid. It's not something unusual for me.

I see the topic of WIFOM cropping up one or two times, so MBL, question for you: Mgm thinks that the Thesp nightkill makes it unlikely you're scum, and gives a load of WIFOM reasoning. Do you actually think that the Thesp nightkill should make you less of a suspect today? If so, why? I think you might have touched on it today but I'd like to see your reply here.

Zindy found you scummy D1, townish D2 and scummy again D3. If you were town, wouldn't the person who can read you best in da world pick up on that?

I'm not so sure Zindaras is the best authority for discerning Glork's alignment in this game, even if he is reputed to be good at reading Glork. He wasn't exactly on top of his game. He did suggest Glork could be busing CDB, but then later seemed to doubt himself. His very last opinion given was that both Glork and MBL were scummy for something that happened way back on day 1.

[Patrick]

Patrick, if you are town, you thought Mgm+CES was the scumpair yesterday. When the sun came up today, you were forced to recognize your judgments had been wrong and completely reconsider your worldview. Yet you have not done the legwork, you've been lazy and focused on defending yourself rather than learning from your mistake (and reasoning out that Glork's the scumbag).

Glork, if you're town, you were also projecting CES+Mgm as your primary scumpair yesterday. You were wrong, and yet you haven't worked very hard to overcome your incorrect biases and learn the truth--that Patrick is scum.

No, I have not been lazy. Your definition of lazy or poor protown play here seems to be simply the fact that someone has come to the conclusion that you're scum. Simply repeating over and over that you're protown does make it so. An alternative intepretation of today's events is that both townies Patrick and Glork are closing on the last scumbag, while you're trying to bring up as much dirt as you possibly can on both. I think it's far from clear that your approach today has been more protown than either mine or Glork's.

Patrick, can you please give us a summary of where you currently stand?

See this... shows why a question counter may not be an entirely useful tool on it's own. You've just asked me a question to which the answer seems obvious. As I though I'd made clear, I lean towards you being scum. I mentioned in my last post why I haven't voted and I still hold onto some doubt.

[Patrick]

He seems to keep open a lot of options in this post and while he says it's not smart to bus the GF as scum, he goes and does it (which in my opinion would be a great strategy).

Um, I said that I wouldn't expect a goon to bus the GF very early in the game, and it made me think there wasn't an MBL/Mgm pairing. To say, basically, "Patrick thinks it's not smart to bus your GF" is a big oversimplification. And I see that you're assuming I'm scum again, by saying I bused the GF, as opposed to simply legitimately voting the GF as town.

I don't like how he sets up MBL for the next lynch when he says: "If CES were to be lynched as a godfather, MBL is very likely the other scum."

This amounted to nothing more than saying what my biggest suspected scumgroups were. I had Mgm/CES first, MBL/CES second. You're trying to read too much into this.

[Patrick]

MBL, with your team analysis done, has it raised any more Patrick-suspicions with you? Lack of interest in CDB and CES, voting me for something he did himself most of the game...

Your win condition, I take it, is to get me to tear all my hair out. Now to the real stuff:

With all due respect, Patrick, your first real "suspicions" each day have been IH, Mgm, Zindaras Nightfall, and now me. 0-for-5. You were late to express suspicion of CDB and CES. Adele's investigation of Mgm appears to be the only reason you haven't lynched him already today. If you're not scum, you might consider doing town a favor and brushing up your scumhunting, because it hasn't helped us much this game.

We've done the whole performance review thing already. And fun as it undoubtedly is to bash my accuracy this game, it isn't very helpful. I'd rather call it 0 for 4 right now of course.

Your questions counter is, as I suspected, misleading. Note that I ask questions when I want to know the answers, and not to fill curiosity quotas.

My post 243, I asked the same question Ether asked you ages ago, which you didn't answer at the time.

In post 267 I made the following comment:

I find it curious that throughout much of the game you've been saying, "Patrick is getting angry that's very townish", yet you're only now bothering to check to see if it actually means anything at all.

Granted it's not phrased as a question, but I thought it invited you to say something on the matter. So I'll rephrase it as a question: You apparently have a meta on me saying if I get pissed off I'm more likely to be town, and it's contributed a signficant part to your opinion on me throughout the game. Why, then, did you only choose to read my scumgames at the point after Mgm voted for me?

Same post:

Thesp and Glork, look to me like the people who actually "busted" CDB, the only known scum at the time. Who else are you saying should have been on that list?

This, in my book at least, is a question.

Post 281:

I see the topic of WIFOM cropping up one or two times, so MBL, question for you: Mgm thinks that the Thesp nightkill makes it unlikely you're scum, and gives a load of WIFOM reasoning. Do you actually think that the Thesp nightkill should make you less of a suspect today? If so, why? I think you might have touched on it today but I'd like to see your reply here.

I believe this is a question.

Overall, perhaps not the most accurate counting of number of questions asked. I'm actually fairly sure I've asked Glork more than one question, and I'll likely check that later if necessary.

And right now Glork looks like manipulative scum and Patrick looks like coasting, avoidant scum.

The adjectives I would currently use for you are manipulative and hedging scum.

[Patrick]

Patrick, the one thing you have going for you in my book is tone. I've seen you as town and you sounded different as town than you did in your scum games. This game, you come across more like you have as town. That's big in my book.

I know. The question I'm asking is why you waited until Mgm voted me to actually check my games as scum.

As far as you labeling me manipulative, I think I'm the only person not trying to tell Mgm what to do. I'm trying to get you and Glork to do ANYTHING that can help me tell the two of you apart, but so far you're like Mutt and Jeff today, both spending way more time making cases for your township than anything, with the dregs of your time spent poking at me and ignoring each other.

Mgm, unfortunately, commands a vote like anyone else, and we can't lynch scum without him. He's currently voting me and his reasons are less than stellar. I'm not just talking about the pure WIFOM of last night's kill, he's brought up a whole bunch of other things that make no sense, and I have to shoot those down. There are valid points against me, as with anyone else, but most of Mgm's stuff against me is garbage. I think correcting that is fairly high priority.

[Patrick]

That still leaves a valid question as to why you showed hardly any interest in the now-dead scum. If it wasn't to fill curiosity quotes, then why didn't you want answers regarding them?

The question of my play around dead scum has already been answered a couple of times when Glork then MBL asked me. Here I'm talking about MBL miscounting the number of questions I've asked today.

[Patrick]

I didn't tell him anything. So, MBL, mind explaining your little stunt?

[Patrick]

Patrick, could you point out any/some/all of the posts in which my tone led you to gain your protown read on me?

Yeah I could try. I risk looking like an idiot if you're scum though

[Patrick]

Mgm, Patrick, I'd like to hear your analyses on the Fritzler-Glork thing. I agree that it's critical to understand whether Fritz hinted at his results or failed to do so, and right now my view of it is that it's a somewhat ambiguous read. I'd like to know if I'm missing something, and I'd like to know how much it's factoring into Patrick's decision.

I don't think there's anything being missed, as there's so few posts by Fritz to look at. My opinion is also that it's somewhat ambiguous. If I was certain he'd investigated Glork, I'd be voting you now, if I was certain he hadn't I wouldn't be mentioning it. I don't really want to assign a percentage chance to it, as I don't usually work in percentages.

I'll probably do my look at Glork's genuine posts tomorrow, unless I feel more wide awake sometime tonight.

[Patrick]

MBL, at the start of day 3, why did you express so much suprise that Fritz didn't hammer Thesp? Given that virtually all Fritz had been saying day 2 was, "Thesp is a terrible lynch guys", wouldn't it have looked alot worse if he'd done a 180 and hammered him?

[Patrick]

Feel free to let MBL answer a question that is addressed to him.

[Patrick]

Going through Glork's isolated posts now, and will try to find the ones that looked protown to me, or look protown to me now. I'm not sure how easy it'll be to articulate.

There's nothing whatsoever on day 1.

Post 60 is a decent post near the start of day 2, which actually instantly made me feel better instantly, though there was still one inconsistency sticking out.

His thoughts throughout much of early day 2 are similar to mine for the most part... shame all my suspects were wrong. I did like the way his thoughts moved from suspecting Thesp to more and more thinking Thesp wasn't the lynch, because the bandwagon seemed dodgy. (And for MBL, this would seem similar to the move off of Zindaras much later -- it doesn't have to be anything the player has done but just how other players are interacting with them).

At the beginning of day 3 he didn't go back to Thesp. Comparing this to MBL's behaviour start of day 3 makes me wonder why I'm even dithering at all. Anyway, we then see some decent stream of consciousness posts ( his 125, 126, 131). I don't agree with everything in them, but they seem pretty well done if faked. Thought processes seem to make sense and flow naturally, not constructed. I doubt I can really explain any better. I think I asked a while back whether there is any game where he wrote any similar types of posts as scum, if there is one I'd be happy to see it. It feels good though. The conclusion is also useful.

After the CDB lynch was when I became significantly more confident of Glork being town. I like post 177 to kick off day 4 because it immediately gives several people tasks and gives the day some direction.

The spat with MBL looks very genuine to me (and pretty amusing of course). It looks very much like the way he acted in LO2 when arguing with MBL, and he got pissed off there too. I could only find one example of a Glork/MBL fight where Glork was scum (Speedy KQ's Big New York) and he was nothing like this. Also, I think it's easier to discern someone's alignment when they're posting on the cuff. From the logical direction as well, I don't really buy MBL's case against him that he presents here. It just seems like he tried to make Glork alot worse than he really was.

Glork's start of day 5 is all fine.. I can connect with the confusion, I've mentioned this before. I don't really agree that Thesp was looking anything other than town after the CDB lynch, but Glork at least doesn't pursue him seriously as a lynch.

Now, in hindsight, I have to say I don't like this:

Even as I tell CES and Thesp to do more, I have a feeling that Thesp is going to go "well damn, back to my vote on CES from yesterday," and he'll still provide minimul contribution/discussion.

Prod for activity? But he is clearly deterring Thesp from just going all out against CES.

There's nothing else really after that that jumps out to me as town. I think the way he seemed to keep second guessing on day 5 seemed protown, but it's possible towards the end he was hoping I'd say, "Yeah MBL looks scummy for that quick third vote, let's go after him instead!".

To round it off then, I've never played a game with Glork where he was scum. His play feels like it did when we played together as town (which I think is a total of three -- mini 358, LO2 and Scrubs Mafia). The one thing bothering me is whether or not I'd be feeling the exact same way if he was scum, which I can't easily check. I've read a few games where he was scum, but it's not the same as being in the game which is much more involved. The fact that Thesp and Ether/CTD, two people I thought were town, had the exact same assessment of Glork gave me some more confidence in it at least.

I'll field any questions on this, as I'm not sure how well I've explained it. In the meantime though:

MBL, talk me through your change of opinion on Battle Mage, that took about 72 hours to happen. Because you seemed to be defending him against Glork one minute, then deciding his analysis was scummy the next. I think I mentioned before that I'd have been all over that if he'd turned up scum, but maybe it would be useful to find out about this change of opinion anyway. This was the guy you'd been defending pratically all game. Also, your isolated posts are annoying, because I have to scroll to the right a long way to read an entire post

Glork, what post or posts of mine made

you

think I was town?

[Patrick]

Patrick, do you really have a problem with the suspicions I expressed of BM in early June? What do you think of Glork's press on Nightfall and his 95% certainty of scumminess? What do you think of his certainty on Zindy D4 and his accusations towards anyone who wanted more info out of Zindy?

At the time, it seemed like you'd done a very quick change, and I stand by the argument that it would look worse if Battle Mage was scum. I don't particular agree with the idea of a major slip from him; I know him well enough to believe that he could actually believe all the stuff he was saying about both scumbuddies being the first to vote CDB etc. Tailoring opinions to desired results can mean scum but can also be a bad protown mindset. I know Battle Mage can be fairly stubborn, so it didn't fall into the "slip" category for me.

As for Glork's certainty on Nightfall, well it was clearly wrong or malicous. 95% then 100% certainty. Do I find it scummy? Not really. I agreed more with the individual suspicions of Nightfall than a Nightfall/MBL pairing.

As for his stance on Zindaras, I don't think he was exactly accusing everyone who wanted to get more info out of Zindy. I'd say he just went for you. Again, I couldn't agree with his stance, since I thought Zindaras was scum. But it's never pinged my scumdar in the way you've claimed it's pinged yours.

[Patrick]

Not really. His stated reasoning for going after you didn't seem to apply to me.

[Patrick]

MBL, I think your maths on my number is slightly off.

We're getting close to deadline, so I'm going to lay down my vote.

Vote: MBL

. I'm afraid of being wrong, but I think the evidence points towards MBL.

Glork, I still want you to do that exercise.

[Patrick]

Anyone else out there?

[Patrick]

Hmm. I'll make a few comments on this.

Because his case against Patrick makes sense.

The case against MBL makes sense.

Do you want to bet the outcome of the game on it?

His actions do suggest that.

I feel a bit better about Glork after these posts (which I suppose is to be expected really, he's defending me). I had a slight concern running through my mind something like, "If Glork is town isn't he concerned about what is going on here? Isn't he afraid of no lynching, being nightkilled and Mgm screwing up tomorrow...?" With his latest posts, I'll dismiss that as him having a busy real life schedule at this point.

Mgm, I can only reiterate that I think you've been selectively reading.

[Patrick]

This is one of those things I don't like about him. If Patrick is not scum, picking MBL is about the only sane thing he could do and he is still acting like it is a guess.

The hell? You're critisising me for not being certain that MBL is scum? Need I remind you that you started today saying Glork was the most likely scum, and that you recently posted...

The only thing I still want to do is investigate Fritzler's posts which could only lead to Glork looking more guilty.

Indicating that you're not entirely sure yourself. So how is picking MBL "the only sane thing to do"?

[Patrick]

So.. I don't get what you're critisising me for. I'm not certain, but I'm certain enough to bet the game on it and basically say Glork has won if he's scum.

The difference is that when I'm not sure I don't throw away the game. We have another chance and if we no lynch now, there'll be at least one less suspect tomorrow.

This is clearly incorrect. Scum could nightkill you, in which case there is not one less suspect. No lynch gives scum the chance to take whatever endgame suits them best.

[Patrick]

I find your position strange to say the least. You seem to think MBL is innocent, yet you're pushing for no lynch and then telling scum that if they kill you they'll achieve an MBL lynch tomorrow. What bothers me greatly is the possibility of an endgame where scum can manipulate you into lynching me. I obviously trust your alignment, but I don't trust your judgement at all. It would be appreciated if you'd stop making up reasons to be suspicious of me and look at the facts. What do you think of the stuff posted by Glork there?

[Patrick]

Besides, with 4 players and 1 standard mafia it's the best strategy to no lynch.
Text book example.

PHAIL. Do not apply this blindly without looking at the specific situation. The strategy you've given is only if you have no confirmed innocents. There may be other reasons for no lynching (cops and docs alive etc) but none of that applies here.

[Patrick]

Doesn't matter. There are no dangerous unknown scum roles, so no lynching can bring us an advantage, no matter how small it may be.

What advantage? It just gives scum a choice of three endgames to pick from. I fail to see how letting scum shape the endgame gives us an advantage, even a tiny one. I think it gives scum a (more than tiny) advantage.

[Patrick]

I believe we only have about 7 hours left until deadline. No lynch is poor play here, and if this leads us to defeat tomorrow, I will be simply irate.

[Patrick]

Vote: MrBuddyLee

You should have killed this piece of scum yesterday. You do not have to lose us this game by being stubborn. Glork predicted this would happen, he explained in detail why MBL is scum and I'm town, and now we're here.

You said the Thespkill makes MBL look innocent for some incomprehensible reason, now you're completely ignoring the Glork kill. Pretty obviously as scum I'd have killed you and ridden out the endgame. There would have been a few WIFOM doubts, sure, but it would have been easy. It's so obvious I'm being setup here, and I feel almost powerless to do anything about it. I've tried to reason with you, Glork tried to reason with you, you refuse to listen. Why?

[Patrick]

I have my hammah ready. Just waiting for Patrick to talk (and for MBL's vote).
I'm not going to end the game without giving Patrick a final chance to beg for his life.

It is painful how you've already decided I'm scum before anythings happened today (which is what you were also doing last half of yesterday). I get the feeling I'm wasting my time trying to convince you of anything today, but months have gone into this, so I have to at least try.

MBL disappeared for the last 4 days of yesterday. You covered for him, saying he probably doesn't have much to day, which doesn't make sense, since Glork had just done full posts pointing out MBL's misrepresentations of his stance on Zindaras -- read post 2198. There is no way that you could say MBL had nothing to respond to. In his next posts. Glork took apart some of MBL's case against me, and explained why I'm protown. Again, nothing to respond to? Hardly. He just disappeared and lurked out the last few days, knowing he could kill Glork and use you against me in the endgame. Note that MBL said yesterday that he thought Glork was scum. So didn't it bother him that we might no lynch, he could get nightkilled and Glork would get the win? No! Because MBL knew he couldn't be nightkilled.

The three previous nightkills have all been guys who worked out I was town (CTD, Thesp, Glork) and note that two of them strongly thought MBL was scum. It is so obvious I'm being setup here it practically burns my eyes. On day 5, if I was scum, it wouldn't have been too hard to push for an MBL lynch, you were wanting one, CES was wanting one, and Glork showed clear signs of wanting one, especially after MBL distanced himself from CES with the third vote. I didn't do that because I'm not scum. It should also have been pretty obvious on day 5 that one of MBL/CES was going to be lynched (investigated innocents weren't going to be lynched and Glork and I were protown to most people). So MBL and CES distanced from each other knowing one was going down for sure.

MBL has kept as many options open as possible for himself targetswise. Yesterday he smeared both Glork and I as much as he possibly could, so he could have a case against either of us for a possible endgame. His cases based on circular logic were designed to make both Glork and I look as bad as possible, as Glork's already pointed out. There was no such smearing from either Glork or me yesterday. Glork had a very small period of suspicion of me, but then went back to being sure on MBL, and I didn't smear Glork at all because I found it likely he was town. Scum keep their options open, not narrow.

Being stubborn is my best quality.

Being stubborn is a negative quality. It blinds you.

[Patrick]

Incidentally, why do you think Glork was so certain MBL was scum? Has it occurred to you that, having been wrong all game, you should start listening to other people a bit?

[Patrick]

No idea. I can do magic, but I can't do mindreading over a long distance.

Hint: He's a better scumhunter than you.

If you listened to me a few days ago, MBL would've been dead and rotting already. It's your own fault he's still alive.

This is insane, and almost reads like you're trying to shift the blame already for when I turn up town. The situation on day 5 was quite different, and I was more suspicious of CES, the godfather. You're right, I COULD probably have gotten MBL lynched on day 5. If I was scum, I would have won the game that way. But I didn't. That should tell you something.

[Patrick]

MBL is probably still away. That's why Stoof pointed out that he'd sent his nightkill in advance.

Tom Hagen has already told me who he wants to kill overnight. And it is Glork. Here is his card...

[Patrick]

Mgm, seven months of play all comes down to your decision now, and I hope the big picture is clear to you at this point.

I really wish it was

Btw, pretty much everyone can see you're scum apart from the one guy who actually matters. But yeah, you played well, and even kept nagging doubts in my mind for most of yesterday. You have had a slice of luck with Mgm being around though.

[Patrick]

I think what Mgm was saying here, Patrick, is that you're imploring him to listen to other players to divine the truth, when in fact you haven't availed yourself of the same opportunity.

He's blaming me for the fact that you aren't dead yet. That doesn't seem fair, he has within his power to solve that right now, and I've pointed out how, as scum, I'd probably have tried to get you killed on day 5. In true fashion, he's completely ignored that.

Let's look at the other people you've included. Who takes Battle Mage seriously? Of course, you've left out the fact that BM also thought I was town. As for Adele, you're presenting her opinion from DAY 2. Such an opinion is much less important that someone who got to day 4 or 5. Adele also played a poor game. I've also explained earlier why Zindaras is not a good authority; he didn't have a clue what was going on this game. He paid very little attention, and was gone for most of the time before his modkill. And Thesp found you scummier than me. You've left that out too.

Glork and Thesp and CTD are all respected scumhunters, the first two have been accurate in this game. Glork was pratically begging Mgm yesterday to hammer you for the win, I think that means significantly more than some idle comment by Zindaras on day 4.

As for the nightkills issue, Mgm hasn't been consistent at all. He's semi cleared MBL for the Thesp kill (and even MBL has admitted thats total bullshit), yet he refuses to apply the same standards to other nightkills. If I was scum, a (Patrick, Glork, MBL) endgame would be a fairly simple win for me. I think it's worth asking Mgm to explain why exactly he thinks I'd have taken this endgame voluntarily. WIFOM doesn't apply nearly as much when one option is clearly better than another. Given that Mgm has been viewing everything through "Patrick is scum" glasses for the second half of day 6 and all of today, I think as scum killing him would have the obvious thing for me to do.

[Patrick]

I also took rational offense to Patrick's (and Glork's) argument that I somehow manipulated a no-lynch. For us to have avoided no-lynch, there were three realistic options:

* Mgm switch to MBL
* MBL and Glork switch to Patrick
* Mgm and Patrick switch to Glork.

To look at these three possibilities side by side and somehow conclude that it was I who was responsible for the no-lynch, let alone manipulated it, is absurd.

Offhand, I don't remember saying this. I believe Mgm caused the no lynch.

Also, we've already demonstrated that Glork's been on more bad lynches than anyone in this game, so I'm not sure why a townie would ask anyone to put their entire faith in Glork's word this game in the same breath as they insult their scumhunting.

I'm not asking Mgm to put his entire faith in Glork's word. I am asking Mgm to actually conceive of the possibility that Glork could be right, because I think it's blatantly obvious that Mgm has been coming at it from the entire angle of thinking I'm scum, and is selectively reading. He sees only what he wants to see, the rest he dismisses because it doesn't support the conclusion he wants to be true.

[Patrick]

Re the Circular logic, it's already been explained, MBL, that using it allowed you to paint both Glork and I worse yesterday. Take the example pointed out by Glork yesterday, you just listed my attacks on CES as "busing day 5". You didn't explain why it's more likely busing than legitimately calling out CES as scum. You just state it's busing and leave it at that.

Yesterday you played the field, with the intention of leaving yourself maximum flexibility to go in either direction, despite your often repeated comments that Glork was far scummier. When Mgm came after me, you tried to look for a way to slide towards me as well, based on Fritzler's possible cop investigation (which you only chose to take seriously when everyone else had said it was a very real possibility -- before then you just shrugged it off). To help you in that switch, you pretended to metagame Fritzler (from 2 games which you played in originally anyway), and acted like you'd only just discovered that he can be obvious as a cop. And when I pointed that out, you went back to Glork despite stating that you believed there was a 60% chance he was confirmed innocent. You tried to pass off your hedging yesterday by painting yourself as a dilligent and model townie, because you realised that going all out against one person gave you a lower chance of obtaining a mislynch.

I'm amazed you didn't die yesterday, and I'm amazed you're not dead today.

[Patrick]

Lol...

I really wasn't expecting that. Yes, I was very frustrated towards the end of yesterday and all of today, as I thought it was blindingly obvious I was town. You put me through hell Mgm, my nerves are crushed :/

Congratulations on making a good decision. I'll probably have more comments later, too euphoric right now. I wonder what Glork is going to do >.>

[Patrick]

Well... I was convinced you'd lynch me when it came down to it.

[Patrick]

Mgm, when did this ploy start exactly? Did you think MBL was scum when you started day 6, or only later on? At the start of day 7, you could have just revealed what you were doing (the sad thing is I was fleetingly tempted to vote for you to make you the fall guy, but I decided if there was just a 1% chance of convincing you I had to carry on).

Overall, the setup probably favours the town. I think you could reasonably run it with only 12 players, 3 scum, 3 poweroles.

Well done to Thesp and Glork especially, who were the most accurate in picking out scum. I enjoyed the game on the whole, though I didn't really see scum until they were shoved under my nose. Obviously, the lesson is to listen to Thesp more, unless he's attacking me. I think MBL did very well as scum, and I agree that his day 5 analysis made him look more town. Even on day 6, when I had seen Glork as town all game, MBL still managed to keep some doubts in the corner of my mind. I felt like I had to psych myself up just to place a second vote on him.

Awesome game guys, and thanks to Mr Stoofer for his modding, which was very efficient. I would definitely play in a similar game again.

[Patrick]

Fritzler was a Cop

N1: Investigated Thesp - Innocent. His original choice was "Protect MBL", until I suggested he re-read his role PM.
N2: Investigated Adele - Dead.
N3: Investigated Ether - Innocent. But he died that night.

On reflection the choice to investigate the claimed cop on night 2 seems odd.

[Patrick]

MrBuddyLee, why didn't you vote me to avoid the no-lynch D2?

This was one of my slight worries on day 6 about thinking MBL was scum. I eventually concluded he'd voted Ether in the hope of scaring her into hammering you, whilst keeping his hands clean.

I wonder whether we'd have won this if MBL has succeeded in getting himself lynched on day 6. I have a feeling we'd have pulled through because I couldn't see MGM/MBL as a scumpairing, and Glork/Thesp were still obvobv town. Maybe the lynch mob would have come after me though.

[Patrick]

And you correctly kept your mind open during endgame--to be honest, I think Patrick and Glork were a little too certain about each other.

Feh. I was never certain. But practically the only reason to suspect Glork was his play on day 1. All the attacks on him for other stuff were stretches.

[Patrick]

Would the mafia be ok with linking to their chat forum? I think it would be kind of interesting.