Mafia 60: Face-to-Face - Game over!

[Mgm]

How did you ever get the idea this was a time to test our sense of humor?

[Glork]

Nice to see you haven't lost your senses of humor.

Then why did you quote that particular paragraph from Patrick in the post in which you voted Mgm, and what was the "interesting theory" to which you referred?

[Glork]

Patrick, could you point out any/some/all of the posts in which my tone led you to gain your protown read on me?


Take a few days if you need to -- I'm going to be busy/away until August 2 at least.

[Glork]

Oh, and for the record: I told Stoof over AIM that I'd be okay with a deadline, because my vote was all-but-fixed, and Mgm seemed entrenched in his position, so I didn't see a lynch as being possible today (as neither Patrick nor MBL would self-vote to attain the three votes necessary for a lynch). Now that Mgm has rescinded his PatrickVote, I'm curious to see how this continues to play out.

At the very most, I'd like to see this as a "soft" deadline -- extendable or retractable, at the players' discretion. Discussion *has* picked up lately, and I feel that things could swing to three of the four possible outcomes (MBL lynch, Patrick lynch, No Lynch) today.

[Patrick]

Patrick, could you point out any/some/all of the posts in which my tone led you to gain your protown read on me?

Yeah I could try. I risk looking like an idiot if you're scum though

[Glork]

Honestly... you risk looing like an idiot if I'm scum even if you don't cite those posts.


But yeah, I want as exhaustive an explanation as possible, which is why I told you to take your time. Basically, I want to know that your read on me is genuine and not just an extended game of Buddy-Up The Glork.

[Mr Stoofer]

Vote Count

MrBuddyLee : 1 (Glork)

Not voting: Patrick MrBuddyLee Mgm

4 alive means

3

to lynch!

Deadline:

10am BST Wednesday 8th August

[MrBuddyLee]

Seriously, I thought we were gonna be here a lonnnnnggggg time and I figured it was a good time to lighten the mood for a moment. We're all friends, I assume, and we've been at each others' throats for seven months now.

Plus, I needed a smile, and it cracked me up at the time.

[Glork]

....you didn't really answer my question. What did that paragraph from Patrick have to do with the joke?

[MrBuddyLee]

It was a gentle jab at Patrick to remind him that if he's town, Mgm's not the one to lynch, you are.

[MrBuddyLee]

Mgm, Patrick, I'd like to hear your analyses on the Fritzler-Glork thing. I agree that it's critical to understand whether Fritz hinted at his results or failed to do so, and right now my view of it is that it's a somewhat ambiguous read. I'd like to know if I'm missing something, and I'd like to know how much it's factoring into Patrick's decision.

By the way, I didn't think about this before, but on the surface, Patrick being willing to write off one of the remaining suspects due to an ambiguous investigation is a slight town tell, due to the inherent lack of self-preservation in that act. (If he's convincing, it forces one player to vote him, and forces another to become 50% more likely to lynch Patrick.)

[Patrick]

Mgm, Patrick, I'd like to hear your analyses on the Fritzler-Glork thing. I agree that it's critical to understand whether Fritz hinted at his results or failed to do so, and right now my view of it is that it's a somewhat ambiguous read. I'd like to know if I'm missing something, and I'd like to know how much it's factoring into Patrick's decision.

I don't think there's anything being missed, as there's so few posts by Fritz to look at. My opinion is also that it's somewhat ambiguous. If I was certain he'd investigated Glork, I'd be voting you now, if I was certain he hadn't I wouldn't be mentioning it. I don't really want to assign a percentage chance to it, as I don't usually work in percentages.

I'll probably do my look at Glork's genuine posts tomorrow, unless I feel more wide awake sometime tonight.

[Patrick]

MBL, at the start of day 3, why did you express so much suprise that Fritz didn't hammer Thesp? Given that virtually all Fritz had been saying day 2 was, "Thesp is a terrible lynch guys", wouldn't it have looked alot worse if he'd done a 180 and hammered him?

[Mgm]

Hence my larger surprise of Ether who did say he wanted Thesp dead.
That said, Fritzler is known for hammering... Him not doing so is slightly out of character at least.

[Patrick]

Feel free to let MBL answer a question that is addressed to him.

[MrBuddyLee]

I guess I don't give a lot of credence to ALL the things Fritz says--he's another one of those BabyJesus-style players who says things like "no reason not to lynch xxx now" or "yyy is clearly town" and not mean anything by it, so I think I expected his lust for blood to take over there. Someone once said--Fritz plays to kill.

[MrBuddyLee]

Plus, the lack of hammer made me suspect a Thesp-Fritz scumpair, which would make Fritz's protection of Thesp WIFOMmy-blatant.

[Patrick]

Going through Glork's isolated posts now, and will try to find the ones that looked protown to me, or look protown to me now. I'm not sure how easy it'll be to articulate.

There's nothing whatsoever on day 1.

Post 60 is a decent post near the start of day 2, which actually instantly made me feel better instantly, though there was still one inconsistency sticking out.

His thoughts throughout much of early day 2 are similar to mine for the most part... shame all my suspects were wrong. I did like the way his thoughts moved from suspecting Thesp to more and more thinking Thesp wasn't the lynch, because the bandwagon seemed dodgy. (And for MBL, this would seem similar to the move off of Zindaras much later -- it doesn't have to be anything the player has done but just how other players are interacting with them).

At the beginning of day 3 he didn't go back to Thesp. Comparing this to MBL's behaviour start of day 3 makes me wonder why I'm even dithering at all. Anyway, we then see some decent stream of consciousness posts ( his 125, 126, 131). I don't agree with everything in them, but they seem pretty well done if faked. Thought processes seem to make sense and flow naturally, not constructed. I doubt I can really explain any better. I think I asked a while back whether there is any game where he wrote any similar types of posts as scum, if there is one I'd be happy to see it. It feels good though. The conclusion is also useful.

After the CDB lynch was when I became significantly more confident of Glork being town. I like post 177 to kick off day 4 because it immediately gives several people tasks and gives the day some direction.

The spat with MBL looks very genuine to me (and pretty amusing of course). It looks very much like the way he acted in LO2 when arguing with MBL, and he got pissed off there too. I could only find one example of a Glork/MBL fight where Glork was scum (Speedy KQ's Big New York) and he was nothing like this. Also, I think it's easier to discern someone's alignment when they're posting on the cuff. From the logical direction as well, I don't really buy MBL's case against him that he presents here. It just seems like he tried to make Glork alot worse than he really was.

Glork's start of day 5 is all fine.. I can connect with the confusion, I've mentioned this before. I don't really agree that Thesp was looking anything other than town after the CDB lynch, but Glork at least doesn't pursue him seriously as a lynch.

Now, in hindsight, I have to say I don't like this:

Even as I tell CES and Thesp to do more, I have a feeling that Thesp is going to go "well damn, back to my vote on CES from yesterday," and he'll still provide minimul contribution/discussion.

Prod for activity? But he is clearly deterring Thesp from just going all out against CES.

There's nothing else really after that that jumps out to me as town. I think the way he seemed to keep second guessing on day 5 seemed protown, but it's possible towards the end he was hoping I'd say, "Yeah MBL looks scummy for that quick third vote, let's go after him instead!".

To round it off then, I've never played a game with Glork where he was scum. His play feels like it did when we played together as town (which I think is a total of three -- mini 358, LO2 and Scrubs Mafia). The one thing bothering me is whether or not I'd be feeling the exact same way if he was scum, which I can't easily check. I've read a few games where he was scum, but it's not the same as being in the game which is much more involved. The fact that Thesp and Ether/CTD, two people I thought were town, had the exact same assessment of Glork gave me some more confidence in it at least.

I'll field any questions on this, as I'm not sure how well I've explained it. In the meantime though:

MBL, talk me through your change of opinion on Battle Mage, that took about 72 hours to happen. Because you seemed to be defending him against Glork one minute, then deciding his analysis was scummy the next. I think I mentioned before that I'd have been all over that if he'd turned up scum, but maybe it would be useful to find out about this change of opinion anyway. This was the guy you'd been defending pratically all game. Also, your isolated posts are annoying, because I have to scroll to the right a long way to read an entire post

Glork, what post or posts of mine made

you

think I was town?

[MrBuddyLee]

I've thought about this decision from every angle imaginable and wasted far too much of my life poring over this thread. It's been a fun game, and we've been prolific, but I guess none of us made it easy on the others to distinguish town from scum because we're nowhere near consensus. Here's how I see things as I head off for a 3-day in San Diego:

1 being townish 10 being super scummy

Based on suspicions of me:
Glork's suspicions of me started with a Nightfall-MBL association and then expanded to him finding me scummy for pressing Zindaras for info. There was literally nothing there and yet he pitched a fit and said he was 95% sure I was scum. Says I was "taking advantage of Zindaras" Total bull--like Patrick, I wanted info from Zindy, and Glork was the one calling for the modkill. When Zindy died, Glork cemented the opportunity to paint me as most likely scum. Switched to Nightfall with no explanation, right as Nightfall was being replaced.

Claimed I was his top suspect at the start of D5 but switched to preferring CES without rereading and after a few people showed interest in lynching CES and only MGM and CES wanted to lynch me. Overreacted drastically to my quiet vote on CES, as I expected he would as scum. D6 tried to ring me up with a bogus metagame. Terrible.

Patrick's suspicions of me have been "me too"ish. He claims to have found my analysis protown all game, but when Glork forwarded the Nightfall-MBL hypothesis, Patrick gave it some play. Then, no suspicions until June 30th, when Patrick decided by process of elimination that I was his third most likely scum candidate. Today, Patrick exploded with a analysis he missed D1-4, claiming I was scumbuddyish with CDB, kind of sheeped on Glork's bogus metagame of me, and really sheeped on Glork's bogus hypothesis about my third vote.

Glork: 8
Patrick: 7

Based on suspicions of others:

I've hit on this a lot, but recapping, Glork has been mercurial. Patrick has been late to the wagon, usually off doing his own thing (IH, Mgm, Zindaras).

Glork: 7
Patrick: 6

Based on voting record (compared to the average player this game--we have not been the most astute of towns) Glork led, Patrick followed to a great extent, but mostly followed on scum, only half the time on town:

Glork: 5
Patrick: 6

Based on tone, Patrick seems more reasonable and interested in equity, Glork seems more manipulative and goal-oriented:

Glork: 8
Patrick: 4

Based on curiosity, Patrick has lacked it for much of the game, Glork has been curious but many times more random than curious:

Glork: 3
Patrick: 6

Based on possible investigation results:

Glork: 4
Patrick: 6

Based on metagame, Patrick doesn't look like the scum he was at the start of B&J, but he's gotten suaver, Glork looks like random average manic could easily be scum Glork, the results of his weird actions have been negative fairly often:

Glork: 6
Patrick: 4

Based on possible scum trio interactions, CDB awkwardly distanced from Glork and ignored Patrick, CES hugged Glork tight and ignored Patrick but still claimed to find him scummish:

Glork: 7
Patrick: 5

Based on what my gut tells me:

Glork: 6
Patrick: 4

average:
Glork: 6
Patrick: 5.7

This is about how I feel right now. My gut tells me Glork's the scum, my rational mind tells me there are factors that make the decision very close to 50-50.

The factors I've had the most success in the past with are curiosity, legitimacy of suspicion, interactions and gut, about in that order. Patrick takes a huge hit on curiosity, but Glork is scummier in the other three categories.

It's late, and I think I have an internet connection in California, so I'll think about this for a day or two before I throw down my vote on Glork.

[MrBuddyLee]

Patrick, I needed more time to evaluate BM, but it looked like he made a major scumslip by placing Glork and Thesp as his top two suspects and a possible scumpair. Town reading the thread would have surely noted who was involved in "catching scum", and I really don't think the logical or gut conclusion could conceivably be that the two that started the wagon are both scummiest.

BM did express a few opinions that made sense to me, like that I was the most townish player in the game. He found CES, Glork, Thesp, Ether scummy and Mgm, MBL, Patrick town, interestingly. But he also made the slip of stating Mgm was a proven innocent by investigation while still finding Thesp scummy. Another MAJOR tell of someone not reading the thread with curiosity but rather tailoring their opinions to desired results.

If Battle Mage had turned up scum, I would have been very suspicious of MBL who I thought looked like he was manufacturing reasons to slide onto the Battle Mage wagon. With Battle Mage turning up town, I'm less sure.

which would point to MBLscum if BM were *town* definitely

I noticed this while reviewing the BM debacle.

Patrick, do you really have a problem with the suspicions I expressed of BM in early June? What do you think of Glork's press on Nightfall and his 95% certainty of scumminess? What do you think of his certainty on Zindy D4 and his accusations towards anyone who wanted more info out of Zindy?

Glork, after pushing an MBL-Nightfall scumpair all D4, why did you think BM town suddenly meant MBL scum was MORE likely? Patrick clearly thought the opposite. You guys can't have it both ways, so who was using the stinkin logic?

One last thing... Glork's CDB vote doesn't fit the rest of the picture well, and that's something that bothers me, but I do think that if Glork is scum, when he spotted Fritzcop he quickly calculated the safest place to be at that time, and that was on the same wagon as Fritz's innocent, running a tight train. What other explanation is there for Glork's sudden confidence in CDB's guilt?

when CDB turns up scum

slip of the wrist?

quite intentional, actually

[Patrick]

Patrick, do you really have a problem with the suspicions I expressed of BM in early June? What do you think of Glork's press on Nightfall and his 95% certainty of scumminess? What do you think of his certainty on Zindy D4 and his accusations towards anyone who wanted more info out of Zindy?

At the time, it seemed like you'd done a very quick change, and I stand by the argument that it would look worse if Battle Mage was scum. I don't particular agree with the idea of a major slip from him; I know him well enough to believe that he could actually believe all the stuff he was saying about both scumbuddies being the first to vote CDB etc. Tailoring opinions to desired results can mean scum but can also be a bad protown mindset. I know Battle Mage can be fairly stubborn, so it didn't fall into the "slip" category for me.

As for Glork's certainty on Nightfall, well it was clearly wrong or malicous. 95% then 100% certainty. Do I find it scummy? Not really. I agreed more with the individual suspicions of Nightfall than a Nightfall/MBL pairing.

As for his stance on Zindaras, I don't think he was exactly accusing everyone who wanted to get more info out of Zindy. I'd say he just went for you. Again, I couldn't agree with his stance, since I thought Zindaras was scum. But it's never pinged my scumdar in the way you've claimed it's pinged yours.

[MrBuddyLee]

So you didn't find it strange that he went after me and not you for voting Zindaras?

[Patrick]

Not really. His stated reasoning for going after you didn't seem to apply to me.

[Glork]

Patrick -- I will get to your posts later... possibly late Sunday, my time.



MBL, your lack of citing context with regards to my BM-town comment is astonishingly misrepresentative. Here's what I said in full:

Still, his question at the end of his most recent post feels like a loaded question, which would point to MBLscum if BM were *town* definitely, and is at best difficult to judge if BM is scum.

...and here is the question to which I was referring:

And then there's the significantly bad, which I'll address roundabout with a question:

BM, who caught CDB?

This question came during the sudden flip-flop of MBL's stance towards BM, and it was (and still is) the kind of question that I feel BM could not have possibly answered well. As I said before, it looks like a loaded question. Loaded questions are things that scums do to towns to trap them in some way.

I wasn't "suddenly pushing MBLscum if BMtown." I was simply stating my observation that MBL's question seemed manipulative and underhanded. MBL's change-in-stance *did* interest me, and the fact that it was punctuated with that particular question made me wonder if maybe I was right about MBL but wrong about BM. (And guess what -- I was!)

...his certainty on Zindy D4 and his accusations towards anyone who wanted more info out of Zindy

...also disgustingly misrepresentative. As Patrick pointed out, I went after you specifically, because I thought that *YOUR* behavior towards Zindaras in particular was indicative of *YOU* being scum. I was not making blanket statements that people wanting info out of Zindaras were scummy. I am curious to know where you got that idea. Links/Quotes, please.


---Sidenote: Apparently I mentioned my meta towards MBL earlier:

FoS: MBL for seeming to play both sides of just about everybody yesterday. He projected mixed feelings on me and BM definitely, and I can't remember how his CES thoughts progressed, but I remember being somewhat displeased with that. MBL's behavior yesterday is something which I'm going to have to go back and re-examine.
I would like MBL to actually try to commit to something today. His vote seems to have been sitting around idly -- either nowhere, or on a player who probably wasn't going to be lynched. I remember using something similar to find him as scum when I followed Moses in Egypt after I died, and this does feel vaguely reminiscent.

MBL, how does this change your "Glork concocted a fake meta against me to start off today" thoery?




You've been sloppy, MBL. I'm surprised that you're not dead yet.

[Patrick]

MBL, I think your maths on my number is slightly off.

We're getting close to deadline, so I'm going to lay down my vote.

Vote: MBL

. I'm afraid of being wrong, but I think the evidence points towards MBL.

Glork, I still want you to do that exercise.