Mafia 60: Face-to-Face - Game over!

[Mgm]

Those question answers and votes are even more complex. I think I need to compare when the votes were 'pledged' and when they were actually made.

[Patrick]

And you are trying to rebut absolutely everything I say, even the reasonable bits and pieces, which is not what you did previously in the game. (The admit to scummy stuff I talked about earlier)

No I'm not. There are very few reasonable bits and pieces that you've presented against me, but I'm rebutting the stuff that doesn't make sense.

His vote wasn't the third. It was the second. And I find that second vote, decidedly non-scummy.

It seems you weren't paying attention to the game. Thesp voted CES first. Then Glork voted CES second. Then MBL put a quick third vote on CES with no comment. Did you miss this?

Another "admit to scummy behavior "-post. You say Glork is easy to read and to expose my thoughts you need to ask questions. Subcontiously or not, you actually use the word "ignore" when it comes to discussing CES.

I don't full understand this. But you are contadicting yourself; first you accuse me of trying to rebut everything and not "admitting to scummy posts", then you say that I'm doing too much "admitting to scummy posts". Which is it?

[Patrick]

Still trying to decide between Glork and Patrick. Glork has seemed significantly more scummy this game, but there's probably a 60% chance he's been investigated. I've never seen Patrick as scum for comparison, but he sounds consistently reasonable this game, just hasn't gotten results. I also recall Patrick getting angry at one point and it read very pro-town, but I'd have to see if he's capable of feigning indignance effectively as scum. I'm going to read some games where Patrick was scum and see what I can learn, I guess, because the way Glork has played, I just can't bring myself to vote Patrick over him right now.

Interesting. Let's look at your comments on the possible Fritz investigation at the start of today:

I don't know what to say about (1). Glork would be the most likely investigation by Fritz, but there's no overt sign that Fritz got a result. If I had to decide between two equally scummy people I might let that thin possibility sway me, but more likely I'd find something else to break the tie.

Before you were pretty dismissive of the idea, calling it a thin possibility that you would maybe use in a tiebreak if you couldn't find anything else. Now you suddenly say there is a 60% chance Glork was investigated (which is pratically the same as saying 60% chance Glork is confirmed innocent). What caused this change of heart?

[MrBuddyLee]

Patrick, you must have read my posts where I actually went back and analyzed Fritzler's history as cop in other games. Once I did that, I realized what a terrible cop he is, as far as giving himself away is concerned. His hints are so unsubtle in every game that he'd might as well come out and say "Thesp is town, I'm a cop" from now on.

Before I'd done that metagame on Fritz, I didn't think that his D3 play gave away an investigation target at all. Thus I wasn't willing to lend much credence to the theory that Glork conveniently posted three times before anyone else bought it--that HE was Fritz's investigation target N2.

This leaves me two possibilities:

1) Glork is scum who spotted Fritz-cop and offed him asap, and also noted the fact that Fritz only came remotely close to clearing one person on D3. Glork boldly decided to claim that he was Fritz's N2 target. Fritz absolutely failed to hint at his investigation target in this scenario, for one of the only times ever on record that I can find.

2) Fritz did a better job than usual of concealing his investigation target D3, even though he gave his N1 target away blatantly D2. The only hint is:

:knowstuff:[/Fritz]

glork is so icey
who do you want to lynch?

And Patrick is scum.

Clearly I'm not willing to risk this entire game on that one lone quote by Fritz. But Fritz's history speaks for itself--he always drops cop hints. It's possible he didn't because 1) he was still busy defending his N1 inv target and 2) CDB was under fire, Fritz clearly didn't have a result on him, and didn't feel he was at risk for a nightkill compared to others who provided cover during D3.

[Patrick]

Are you saying you didn't know that Fritz can be an obvious cop before Glork mentioned it? Because you were in Speedy KQ's Big NY game where Fritz was obvious as cop. You were even in KM 1 for a smallish amount of time where he was obvious as cop.

[MrBuddyLee]

That was my first large game ever, and it was ages ago. All I knew was Fritz is the guy who never says much of anything, since I played my first newbie with him. And Glorkscum kept trying to get newbie-me lynched.

Short answer: no, I'm not a Fritz expert.

[Mgm]

Another "admit to scummy behavior "-post. You say Glork is easy to read and to expose my thoughts you need to ask questions. Subcontiously or not, you actually use the word "ignore" when it comes to discussing CES.

I don't full understand this. But you are contadicting yourself; first you accuse me of trying to rebut everything and not "admitting to scummy posts", then you say that I'm doing too much "admitting to scummy posts". Which is it?

That is one big manipulative misstatement. I said that you are trying to rebut everything I say, not "everything" (post 2023). Also, I'm not talking about "admitting to scummy posts", I said "admitting to scummy behavior"; it's even in the post you quoted.

I'll be more specific. The rebutting but applies specifically to today. The admitting is something you've been doing throughout the game as the previous quotes I posted show.

Read that original post he quoted of mine there Glork. It should be interesting.

Also, why did that quote box say "CES wrote"? I'm positive I said that. That looks like an even worse slip than that word "ignore" earlier. You didn't have a problem quoting my earlier posts in that same message...

[Glork]

His vote wasn't the third. It was the second.

Um...no, this is factually wrong.

MBL put a quick-third-vote on CES within hours of me putting the second vote on CES. I unvoted CES, FoS'd MBL, and then MBL unvoted CES and counter-FoS'd me. Later, I demaned that MBL put his vote back on CES, and he did so. This is the only reason that MBL shows up as second on the day-end vote count, because I got jittery and removed mine.

[Patrick]

Mgm, I've already explained that I will admit it if I actually believe I'm wrong or scummy in some case, rather than being stubborn. It doesn't mean anything. You've accused me of doing this, whilst ignoring cases of the other two doing the same thing. Why are you only looking at my posts for it?

As for rebutting things you say, I rebut what doesn't make sense. Most of what you've said against me doesn't make sense. Hence, alot of rebutting. I answered stuff you said against me earlier, and you just consensed it down to, "Patrick is whining". Is there some rule about which of your bad accusations I can respond to and which ones I have to just let slide?

You've twice accused me of slips today. I have no idea how you are suggesting I slipped. I typed CES in the third quote by accident, maybe because I mentioned him three times in the previous answer. The "ignore" thing was intentional; I said that several people somewhat ignored CES and passed it off as how he usually plays. How am I supposed to have slipped up exactly?

[Glork]

Quick compliation of posts relating dead scum and MBL and Patrick. As a typing convention, "MBL#" will refer to the "Post subject" number shown if you filter out only MBL's posts. For example, "MBL1" would refer to the second post (filtering starts with Post Subject 0) made by MBL. Patrick's, CDB's, and CES's posts will be labeled similarly.

MBL's posts regarding CDB:

CES is more active than usual early, probably because Andrew's blood is in the water. His comments so far are consistently aligned towards attaining an Andrew lynch.
...
ChannelDbird wins the late to the table on the WIFOM issue award, after interim posts avoiding it.

Noteworthy: MBL's end-of-post summary fingers MGM/Andrew, asks for better contributions from Nightfall/Adel/Zindie/Fritz, calls Patrick/Ether pro-town; fails to give any opinion of either CDB or CES.

ChannelDelibird
Voting purely on WIFOM, then again when commenting on Glork. Lame, and near-total lack of curiosity.

Cogito Ergo Sum
Way more chirpy and active than usual. I've seen him be lazy town and SK. Significantly manipulative D1. Seemingly strategic push on Thesp.

Here, he makes scathing comments about both players, but chooses to go after Adel and Thesp in his end-summary, once again choosing not to comment on either player.

Also, CES got more conservative today. CDB is trying to appear more active but isn't succeeding. All of these changes in response to the lynch and the night's events. The answer to WHO IS SCUM lies in that mess somewhere.

CES/CDB commented on in a separate paragraph from thoughts on Glork, Thesp, and Ether. We're in D2 now, and he still has yet to make a truly critical examination of either player.

MBL22 and MBL23 offer more of the same, yet

still

no willingness to vote for CDB:

Another post by CDB attempting to appear more active.

Thesp, you asked why I wasn't voting CDB, which is a bold, somewhat manipulative question for you to ask considering I'm currently voting for you. I caught CDB as scum via a cop investigation in another game but I sat back and watched his play rather than blurt out that I had a result. He was significantly manipulative in that game, and I see him as significantly passive in this game. My read on him is lazy town. My vote's on you because while you're passive as well, your behavior change indicates a desire for self-preservation rather than town preservation. I suppose CDB's does as well, but your D1-D2 shift is stark and inexplicable. His play is consistently slack.

CDB, the game was Wheel of Time.

Glork, I'd define active as not only posting, but posting substance. As an example, one is not active if they simply post a summary of events without analysis. That's trying to create the appearance of thoughtfulness and activity. Sometimes I find your manic play as an attempt to appear active, when actually you can coast through a day with that tactic and later explain it away as wily protown play instead of laziness. Sometimes you'll see Adele correct people's logic without making a statement on whether or not they're scummy--it's more conversational. Same concept.

CDB's posts don't appear to be hunting scum, or at the best, they're incomplete analyses that show limited curiosity. His reread categorizes the other eleven players according to his worldview, which is useful, except he leaves out MGM, Adele and me. At least two of those are people I see as somewhat in the spotlight. So we're left to wonder whether he's scum not truly curious about alignments or whether he's lazy town.

CES, why are you so focused on Glork's opinion of you? Your recent posts indicate you think he's scum, so wouldn't his opinion be moot in that case?

MBL: If you felt that CDB was actively lurking so hard, why didn't you choose to take any action, especially after he failed to change his ways after your initial comments towards him?

Ether, can you please go into depth about your opinions of Thesp? You say you don't find his false dilemma attacks scummy. And that you're empathetic with his singleminded D1 play for some reason? What seems genuinely protown about Thesp to you thus far?

Also, please elaborate on how/why Adele is "meh".

As for Nightfall, do you really see his significant efforts as scummy? I see sincerity of suspicion and uncertainty.

Also, can we have your opinions on the rest of the players?

CDB: What's your take on Adele and MGM?

CES: You do realize your behavior today is identical to the D1 behavior of Thesp, the guy you're trying to get lynched. Why shouldn't we be voting for you instead?

Reasonable question to CDB. Yet he brings up another good point in a weak manner towards one of CDB/CES.

CDB, you haven't answered my question.

CES and Thesp, you never REALLY answered my question, so I'll restate: how do you see Thesp D1 and CES D2 behavior differing?

Still no pressure towards either player. Ignoring/Evading questions, trying to appear active while not actually contributing, hypocrisy in one's manner of attacks.... and yet no FoS or Vote on either player.

Ether doesn't look town at all to me, CES bothers me, Zindaras bothers me, and the CDB wagon looks suspiciously scum-driven so I'm reading the fine print on that one.

Defends CDB in the heat of the wagon on CDB -- this occurred with Thesp's vote on CDB, and with Glork/Fritzler having recently moved onto CDB.

Taking the hypothesis that either Ether and/or Thesp is scum, which I believe is significantly likely to be true, that would mean that their scumpartners would be feverishly working on alternate wagons. Does that mean everyone on alternate wagons is scum? No, duh, cause it takes as many townies as scum to lynch a townie at this point. But if people are softpedaling Ether and Thesp and shuffling feet towards CDB I'm watching them.

The CDB wagon looks to me like people ignoring the elephants in the room to swat a bee. He also does not smell like a rose, but when Thesp and Fritz move on him like that--two people I saw potential alignment in yesterday--I'm wary.

...elaborates when I question him RE: CDB-wagon driven by scum. He basically says "if we accept the hypothesis that at least one of Ether/Thesp are scum, and Ether/Thesp are going after CDB, then CDB is probably not scum." Circular logic, at best. Incidentally, he states that scum would be "feverishly working on alternate wagons" to their scumpartners

while his is in the process of attempting to discredit the players voting for CDB

.

vote: ChannelDelibird. I've spotted something very naughty. I suggest the rest of you read his posts with a fine-toothed comb if you already haven't.

Suddenly MBL is all anti-CDB. What happened between last post and this one?
--MBL asked about my "when CDB turns up scum" comment, and I say that it was rather intentional. Note that this forms the basis of MBL's "I thought Glork was the cop" theory.
--I also posted that based on the sheer volume of evidence posted against CDB by Glork/Thesp, the fact that his wagon stalled at three votes was a sign that "both of CDB's scumbuddies [were] figthting (or, at the very least, patentedly avoiding) a lynch on him."

From here on out, MBL attempts to take a leading role in the CDB lynch, badgering other players to go find out why CDB was scummy. He later asserts that he was trying to protect a percieved GlorkCop whom he felt was being way too obvious. Interestingly enough, Fritz, whose protection of Thesp was completely and utterly obvious after his "cuz Thesp is town and you guys are idiots" behavior went

entirely

unnoticed, according to MBL. Does anybody else find it odd that MBL would fail to notice FritzCop (whom MBL has seen twice, as pointed out by Patrick), yet he would take action to protect a percieved GlorkCop?



...now to examine Patrick's behavior towards CDB and CES from Days 1-3. Expect another post before too long.

[Glork]

I'm not really feeling the CES wagon.

That doesn't make it less scummy, Patrick.

I hope you're joking. I expect IH to nitpick semantics. Not you though.

....wouldn't expect CES to go after semantics, yet fails to say anything more about the subject. Interesting interaction between

Also noteworthy: Patrick has said next to nothing about CES or CDB in the early goings of the game. His only comments towards CDB are his statements that CDB is one of the people Thesp called scum. Ho hum.

I've read MgM's posts and some of the accusations against him. He's made some odd posts, and hasn't paid attention at times. As I noted before his attack on Glork was strange and felt like he was sticking to a rigid policy of just voting anyone suggesting no lynch. I don't know, there seems to be less going against him that I had first thought. I'm not sure I find him any worse than ppl like Adele or CDB. I'm unsure of how much weight to put into the apparent slip pointed out by MBL, where he apparently assumes the township of Glork and Andrew. I used to think these tells were reliable, but in some games I've seen pro town players make them, just by wording awkwardly.

CDB has hardly said anything all game and what he has said is not that insightful. Adele also hasn't done too much. She voted AndrewS, then jumped off the wagon with a few critisisms of him, then voted spectrumvoid with no reason given, then suggests a suboptimal vigging strategy. I'm fairly underwhelmed.

Doesn't like CDB, yet treats him much the same way that MBL had treated CDB/CES. Patrick has still made considerably fewer comments on either player.

Interesting to note that to start D2, Patrick votes Glork and provides this reasoning:

My main reason for voting Glork is that he's been unhelpful all game.

...what was that you were saying about CDB? Why did you drop the CDB-hate altogether and decide to audible to Glork?

I'm going to

Unvote

at this point.

ChannelDelibird: Seems more like a spectator than a player. I was going to suggest replacing him, but he just made a post before me. I don't find his post very inspiring though. He hasn't come up with much original content. I'll have to metagame him a bit, as we have little playhistory.

CES: I admit I'm partially relying on others who know him better. Seems bandwagonish. Voted Andrew and voted spectrumvoid, didn't really say why. Not sure how he might play as scum.

...these comments towards CDB/CES during a summary of all of the players. He basically gives an excuse for not looking critically at CES (note that CES had given very similar excuses for following me around all day on Day Four), and he again makes a "CDB is :unhelpful:" post.

I asked if it was scummy. As you can see I still haven't moved my vote from you, so thinking I was appealing for a bandwagon appears a bit premature. Sometimes asking for info doesn't mean the person asking the question has ulterior motives.

The fact that you haven't moved your vote doesn't matter. The point being made is that you were sort of testing the waters, seeing if there was any momentum in the direction of CDB. I think it's possible that CDB is just being used as the scum patsy here.

Patrick defends CDB against MGM somewhat, suggesting that CDB was being manipulated by scum who were "testing the waters" for a case against him.

What? I said it might be a weak scum tell, but that I'm undecided and would have to judge on a case by case basis. Sometimes I see someone playing lazily in such a way that makes me think they're scum, sometimes they look like apathetic town.

FoS Thesp.

That is such a reaching argument. You're case against CDB is reaching and of roughly the same quality as your case against Andrew was. There's something not quite right about your play compared too times I've seen you as town.

Patrick53 is a defense of CDB against Thesp now.

Thesp, Patrick, and CDB all expressed "sorry for lurking/slacking, I'll contribute" sentiments. Guarantee at least one is probably scum.

This is just a false dilemna. I don't make a habit of it, but I'd just not posted in a few days and wanted to let ppl know that I'd be back to it the following day. To suggest that one of us is likely scum because of that is ridiculous, and is not the first false dilemna you've presented in your long posts.

Defense of himself, Thesp, and CDB by A) discrediting my point as false dilemma; and B) asserting that "apologies for lurking" is not a scumtell.

CDB: Slightlybad. It seems now that he must be deliberately lurking, since I've seen him around so much and yet he doesn't post here. Looking at all his posts right now - 21. Not much at all. Seems to have been focussing mainly on Thesp for a bit now, and it seems very easy to do. Incorrectly applied WIFOM, has posted since Thesp's complaints about this but no reply. Yeah I don't like him much.

....

CES: Meh. I dunno, though I don't understand the fanatisism for lynching Thesp which has been going on for a while now.

....

Actually I find Ether's lack of hammer fairly townish regardless of Thesp's alignment. <3 Ether for being tricksy. I could see Zindaras/CDB together, and out of the two I'd prefer to kill Zindaras. Hmm something I saw earlier made me think Zindaras and mgm could be together too. I disliked the way Zindaras seemed to be preparing himself to ooze onto the MgM wagon around pages 28/29. Then interestingly enough MgM attacked me for asking Zindaras for his reasons as Glork noticed in post 722. Then Zindaras was noncommital on mgm for a while, saying he was analysing him, while asking everyone for their opinions. Then, when it was finally looking like Mgm probably wasn't going to be the lynch for the day anyway, Zindaras finally voted him. Also makes minor attempt to link me with mgm. Damn. I could definitely see these two guys together.

CDB "slightly bad."
This is the

second

time out of

two

summary-posts in which Patrick has essentially said "I don't know, I'll follow others" regarding his stance towards CES.
Posits Zindaras/CDB, but shows a definite strong pereference for a Zindaras-lynch. He even turns that paragraph into suggesting a Zindaras/MGM pairing instead.

Patrick's thoughts on Fritz are interesting, too. I would suggest reading Post 963 and the posts which follow immediately. MBL and Mgm: Do either of you see this as a tacit confession of knowing Fritz's role?

Heh, that is interesting. CDB shows that he has been reading the thread and pops up with a roleclaim when under pressure. I have read through his posts, and may have an idea what is wrong, though it didn't necesarily jump out as immediately damning so maybe I'm not on the right track.

I agree with CES's previous post. Also, CDB didn't claim any night choices, which would have been easy for him to add in two minutes if he actually made them, but if he's scum he probably wouldn't have had time to make up nightchoices.

Note... here is CES's post:

Okay, nobody should counterclaim yet.

MrBuddyLee, why don't you share what you "found" in his posts? If it is damning as you make it out to be, then I see no reason to out the real last power role.

(I'm wary of the claim, as a roleblockerclaim does not require results and it makes so much sense for Channelscum to claim it to get the final power role out that I'm quite willing to lynch him without a counterclaim if there's good reason to believe he's scum.)

Make of that what you will.


...the rest of Patrick's D3 posts are "CDB feels like scum who has given up" until he finally puts a hammering vote on before the end of the day.



Re-reading Patrick's early play has definitely put a new light on this entire game.

Patrick, do you have

any

explanation to offer as to why you posted

so incredibly little

analysis on either CDB or CES during the early game? Do you have anything to say to the fact that, while most of your comments towards CDB were of the scathing "I think he's not contributing" variety, you never FoS'd or voted him, and you even started off D2 by voting me for undercontributing and acting weird?


I don't know who I want to lynch anymore.

[MrBuddyLee]

Interesting timing of your first substantive suspicions of Patrick today, Glork. You've gone after me

exclusively

today, but now that I'm actually considering voting Patrick over you, which would make him lynchable today, you've "seen the light"?

REALLY feels like you decided the easiest lynch of the day just switched from me to Patrick. Particularly from the guy who just said 12 hours ago:

Needless to say, Mgm, I've got my heart set on lynching MBL right now.

and who chided Mgm for his singular focus a few days ago:

I was concerned about you shutting out MBLscum as a possibility, because I really think that MBL is the last scumbag right now.

[Glork]

Interesting timing of your first substantive suspicions of Patrick today, Glork. You've gone after me exclusively today, but now that I'm actually considering voting Patrick over you, which would make him lynchable today, you've "seen the light"?

I haven't "seen" any "light." I'm just taking a step back and reassessing things.

What are you getting at, anyway. You seem like the kind of player who would

encourage

me to make a substantial re-read. Remember how you had earlier asked why I hadn't posted any analysis on Patrick? Now that I'm finally making such an effort, you're voicing suspicion of me?


1) You have horribly mischaracterized my post regarding Patrick. I still may very well slap my vote back on you (and to be quite frank, your response makes me want to do that right now).
2) You've cited me "chiding Mgm for his singular focus" and now that I'm trying to keep an open mind about whom I think might be scum, you're labeling me as opportunistic.




It feels like you're trying to put me in a lose-lose situation here. Really, MBL. Just how much cake do you want to have and eat? Do you rob bakeries when you're not off killing innocents?

[Glork]

I should also note, MBL, that my analysis of your D1-D3 behavior regarding CES/CDB is really no better than Patrick's. The unvote signifies "I am no longer so certain of MBLscum that I am willing to risk the game on it." Your play has been far from stellar all game, considering you treated CDB with kid-gloves during the most crucial part of the Thesp/Glork/Fritz push against him.

I'd like you to respond to my post against you. I'd like you to explain your behavior towards both CES and CDB in the early parts of the game.

[MrBuddyLee]

As I said, I would have been more comfortable with your analysis if it'd come sooner, but can you honestly say I shouldn't be suspicious of the timing?

And this is just silly:

It feels like you're trying to put me in a lose-lose situation here.

Of course I want everyone bringing their game. Of course I see you as more reasonable now that you're not dead set on mislynching. But I need to give my first impression of your Patrick post and there it is. Everyone makes mistakes and maybe you're not scum, maybe you were just roleplaying errant pit bull.

To be honest, my first impression of your MBL post was "there he goes again, slamming me and ignoring Patrick AGAIN."

considering you treated CDB with kid-gloves during the most crucial part of the Thesp/Glork/Fritz push against him

If an analogy helps you understand this better, it's similar to how you were on Thesp when you found Mgm/Adele suspect. Only an idiot would have found Thesp entirely townish, but since you found Adele and Mgm scummiest, and they were riding Thesp hard, you moved Thesp down on your list. Similarly, even though CDB hadn't done anything pro-town, I moved him down on my scumlist because of Thesp's strident attacks on him.

[Glork]

MBL: If you think that I was being opportunistic to go after Patrick, what do you have to say about the fact that I made a lengthy post about your scumminess towards CES/CDB first?
I find it somewhat unbelievable that your reaction would go from "here he goes, attacking me and ignoring Patrick yet again" to "oh, now he's being opportunistic against Patrick." The fact that I made a post-by-post analysis on each of you, and that they both amounted to the same conclusion ("Both players took a disturbingly soft stance towards both CDB and CES throughout most of D1 through D3.") would suggest an objective, balanced analysis of the early part of the game, would it not?


--------------------------


Mgm, could you post your thoughts on Post 1886:

Is there anything else you wanted to hear from the other players? Any specific questions, general thoughts/comments?

I'll let you read what parts you want to read and I wouldn't mind seeing Mgm's thing as well. Actually I would be pretty interested in seeing Mgm's thing.

** Comment on laziness from before: I don't think Thesp has been playing any lazier than normal, nor am I playing lazier than normal. In fact I've put more into this game than my average game. The laziness that bothers me is mostly CES. If I had one/two votes on me, especially from varying people, and with others expressing suspicion of me, I'd be freaking out and trying my hardest to convince people that I shouldn't be lynched and that they should take me out of quicklynch range. Maybe that reflects just different playstyle between me and CES rather than a possible different alignment, but it feels like he's acting in the same that ChannelDelibird was acting when we had nailed him.**

MBL's analysis today is pretty good, and looks fairly protown, but I know he's thorough as scum and I wouldn't put it past him to do it as scum as well as town. I think if he is protown then voting CES like that was not the cleverest idea in the world, but equally if he is scum with Mgm then it would also have been a really sloppy attempt to snatch victory when just waiting a day or two would have been completely safe.

The pairing that worries me the most (after CES/Mgm which is currently my top one) is actually CES/MBL rather than Mgm/MBL. I think I mentioned before that there seems to be alot of genuine friction between MBL and Mgm. MBL pushed Mgm hard day 1 when he wasn't a top candidate, and let's remember if Mgm is scum he's the godfather. Would a goon set out to bus the GF early? I could see a GF busing heavily at a pinch because he can't be touched by cops but a goon busing the GF seems risky when you don't know what the poweroles are. And again later, there just seems to be alot of genuine angst between them. I'm still not too happy with Mgm's opening to today, because it looked pre planned, and not at all how I felt starting the day, and apparently not how Glork (who I think is protown) felt at the start of the day, which may indicate a different mindset. Pre planned busing or pre planned attempt to frame MBL with a slightly off nightkill? Or just unusual playstyle bleh. Glork, if you have some link you can see between Mgm and MBL, other than MBL's vote for CES, then you might as well tell us. For MBL/CES though, there is some distance between them but not as much, could be contrived. I'm not going to worry that much about it right now because in this case lynching CES is absolutely fine anyway. If CES were to be lynched as a godfather, MBL is very likely the other scum.

Taking it one step at a time, CES seems like the best lynch to me. How worried are you about that MBL/Thesp pairing you were talking about before? Because I've taken it mainly that CES has been blowing steam, but again, if there's some link between them then now is the time, we might not get another chance. Thesp has seemed pretty genuinely protown to me for a while now though.

Note, Mgm, that this came after a post in which I said: "Patrick, you and I think we're pro-town, and the two of us are deciding today's lynch, so give me your opinions and I will take them into consideration."

Would you have expected PatrickScum to come back with a post that amounted to "CES is the lynch today" or would you have expected PatrickScum to attempt to convince me that MBL was the play for the way he pounced on CES? Keep in mind that, if Patrick/CES were the scumpair, Patrick could have jumped on MBL just as I did, gotten a mislynch on MBL, and ended the game right there and then.

You say that MBL's behavior towards CES yesterday makes no sense from a scum perspective. I've been thinking that Patrick's behavior yesterday makes no sense from a scum perspective, and I have proposed a scenario where MBLscum would pounce on CESscum just the way he did.

[MrBuddyLee]

The fact that I made a post-by-post analysis on each of you, and that they both amounted to the same conclusion ("Both players took a disturbingly soft stance towards both CDB and CES throughout most of D1 through D3.") would suggest an objective, balanced analysis of the early part of the game, would it not?

You should work for a politician.

Yes, it appeared to be a fair and balanced approach. That's not what I took issue with.

I've chafed that you've been ignoring Patrick all day, which has had me wondering if you're pushing me, the easy lynch. Because it sure hasn't looked like scumhunting up til now. And then just as Mgm has voted Patrick and I'm coming around to consider Patrick, you post your first "thoughtful" analysis of Patrick all day.

Tell me with a straight face I shouldn't be suspicious of that. I should instead lap contentedly at the frothy words of the Paragon's "analysis".

[Glork]

The "after MGM voted Patrick" and "just as I was coming around to Patrick" is nothing more than a little verobse hand-waving.



Fact: Patrick and MGM find it likely that I was investigated as innocent by Fritzler.
Fact: It was not until after both players had made their impressions on this subject clear that you decided I was "60%" likely to be confirmed innocent.
Observation: You did not start to warm up to the idea that GlorkTown was likely until after both other players had likely shut out the possibility of me being scum. It is at this point that you finally start to turn your eye specifically towards Patrick.

Fact: Mgm made it very explicit early in the day that he did not believe you to be scum, based primarily on the ThespKill and on his interpretation of your behavior yesterday.
Reasonable conclusion: Anybody early in the day could have guessed that Mgm would ultimately vote Patrick.
--Corollary: Patrick was the "easy lynch" from the get-go, as he initially FoS'd Patrick and said that he "couldn't stomach" MBLscum killing Thesp.
Fact: In spite of this reasonable conclusion, I have first spent considerable time and effort attempting to persuade Mgm that you are scum, and not Patrick.


Now, ask yourself the following questions:

--How different do you feel that my play has been as compared to your own? I would argue that your strategy today has been to leave your options as open as possible so that narrowing them down to whatever suits you personally the best looks as logical and natural as you can possibly make them. I would like you to compare and contrast your most recent allegations to your own play throughout today. Explain to me why my behavior is suspicious to you, but why yours is perfectly acceptable. What makes your movement from Glork-scummy to Glork-60%-confirmed-innocent --

only after Patrick and Mgm had both accepted me as likely confirmed innocent

-- so different from my play today?
**NOTE: I have in mind for this, but I cannot properly ask that question until you have responded.**

--How can you accuse me of being opportunistic Re: Patrick when MGM's Patrick-vote has been the writing on the walls for so long? Would you expect GlorkScum to take literally weeks to make the kind of turn that you have suggested?

--If I stay focused on you, I'm a narrow-minded fool going for the "easy lynch" according to you. If I look at Patrick critically and still claim that his play has been clean, I'm a dirty liar (because, really, now that I've looked at Patrick's play, I don't think anybody in their right mind could arrive at that conclusion). If I look at Patrick critically and decide that he's not as shiny and good as I had previously thought, I'm "opportunistic."
Do you see why I am miffed at your reaction to my most recent analysis?

--Before I made that post, Mgm had stated his belief that I am innocent. Patrick had made a very similar assertion, and even you had warmed up to the idea that I was more likely confirmed-innocent than not. If I were scum, the easiest route to victory would have been to stay where I was, force No-Lynch, kill the known cop-confirmed innocent, and wait for one of you/Patrick to put a vote on the other. The fact of the matter is that there *IS* compelling evidence to believe that I am completely
I would argue that in two separate ways today, I have made plays that would be far from optimal as scum,

both

of which involve

not doing the actual EASY thing

. Yet you assert that my behavior has been opportunistic while failing to take into account the full context of what's going on. Do you, right now, believe that I am seeking the "easy route" to victory? If so, what makes that route easier than any other?

[Glork]

EBWODP:

**NOTE: I have

a follow-up question

in mind for this, but I cannot properly ask that question until you have responded.**

[Glork]

Gah. I fail at proofreading... and at keeping a coherent thought.

EBWOTP:

The fact of the matter is that there *IS* compelling evidence to believe that I am completely

confirmed, and even if I were scum, I had an "easy" route to victory already established. Mgm was voting for Patrick, and you were warming up to Patrick. All I'd have had to do was to

wait for you to finally make your move and then just hammer him myself.

[Glork]

And in case you haven't realized it yet, MBL:
I have not yet denied that your initial reaction is completely falsified. I realize that you are prone to skepticism and suspicion in general. But instead of sitting back and letting you take a potshot on me with a very

shallow

observation, I want you to dig a little deeper and actually get into the meat of my play. As you muck through the depths of my play, do you really believe that surface suspicion, or are you willing to admit that you overstated yourself? While one interpretation may be that I was opportunistic, is that the most sensible, logical, or (most importantly)

likely

interpretation? It seems to me that you're just looking to tack on added suspicion to any one of Patrick/Glork wherever you can without stopping for a moment to think about our behavior in its fullest context, with all of its implications. I expect higher-level analysis from you, and I'm just not seeing it right now. If you're town, you need to realize this, and you need to try a bit harder. If you're scum, you're being a little obvious about the whole "leaving my options open by making everyone but me look suspicous" thing (which, I should point out,

IS

how I would expect scum to behave -- it's exactly how I behaved at the end of Space Monkey -- throw things out in every direction, wait for somebody to bite, then lay down the winning vote).

[Mgm]

His vote wasn't the third. It was the second.

Um...no, this is factually wrong.

MBL put a quick-third-vote on CES within hours of me putting the second vote on CES. I unvoted CES, FoS'd MBL, and then MBL unvoted CES and counter-FoS'd me. Later, I demaned that MBL put his vote back on CES, and he did so. This is the only reason that MBL shows up as second on the day-end vote count, because I got jittery and removed mine.

The final vote count confused me.

[Mgm]

Patrick's thoughts on Fritz are interesting, too. I would suggest reading Post 963 and the posts which follow immediately. MBL and Mgm: Do either of you see this as a tacit confession of knowing Fritz's role?

Yes I do.

MBL, Glork's analysis is actually a good thing. Before it we were stuck in a situation where no lynch would occur because no majority decision could be made. With the analysis, suspicions and discussion have rekindled. If no lynch occured and I died, the only obstacle in the way of a decision would disappear and Glork would be the one to cast the deciding vote (which would be the easy way out for him - instead of this whole discussion).

I'm confirmed innocent, Glork is 99% confirmed, so you really have only one option unless you want to vote yourself.

[Patrick]

Ugh. Everything goes confusing again. I'll try to take this in order.

...what was that you were saying about CDB? Why did you drop the CDB-hate altogether and decide to audible to Glork?

Out of all the players sucking on day 1, you were the most obvious one to me. You also started the spectrumvoid bandwagon based on a die roll. You started day 2 apparently planning to play in the same way. So I decided to attack you and see if you'd actually play properly. It worked. Yay. My attack on you wasn't prolonged because I found you more protown after that.

Patrick's thoughts on Fritz are interesting, too. I would suggest reading Post 963 and the posts which follow immediately. MBL and Mgm: Do either of you see this as a tacit confession of knowing Fritz's role?

I posted that opinion of Fritz without even fully realising what I was commenting on it seems. I had not worked out his role. If I was scum who'd actually worked it out (and was planning on denying it later), I find it more likely that I'd have not mentioned that at all and just said "I can't read him".

...the rest of Patrick's D3 posts are "CDB feels like scum who has given up" until he finally puts a hammering vote on before the end of the day.

This was kind of the tipping point against him for me. I couldn't fathom a protown powerole being so apathetic at that point. I'd have thought a powerole would have tried to do something to avoid the humiliation of being lynched as a powerole in an open setup. Only scum could benefit from playing like that towards the end.

Patrick, do you have any explanation to offer as to why you posted so incredibly little analysis on either CDB or CES during the early game? Do you have anything to say to the fact that, while most of your comments towards CDB were of the scathing "I think he's not contributing" variety, you never FoS'd or voted him, and you even started off D2 by voting me for undercontributing and acting weird?

The last part was already answered. I genuinely couldn't really read CES and didn't know what to do about him. I found his logic to be lacking, similarly to LO2 and the open c9 modded by you. I found him similarly oppotunistic. I found him posting a similar amount (or lack of) content. I didn't detect anything particularly from the tone of his posts. So yes, I just shrugged at him most of the game. CDB, I assume, was following a strategy of lurking and avoiding attention, and it worked, for a time. I nearly always found someone more interesting or suspicious than him, and didn't really give him much attention. I think that might have happened to most people as well. But yeah. I can't offer any explantion that is going to take away all doubt. I just didn't pay them enough attention, even as Thesp was saying, "I strongly get the impression that people are ignoring CES just because he's being CES" or something similar.


I don't find the analysis of me to be oppotunistic, since I haven't really gotten results and there's nothing special in my interactions with either scum that means I couldn't been busing. If I was scum with CDB, I'd definitely have wanted to be on his lynchwagon, maybe even earlier than I was. MBL's switch over was the one bothering me the most actually. It feels like when Mgm was attacking Glork he was going hard after Glork, then when Mgm voted me he's looking for ways to slide over to me, including a sudden new interest in a possible cop investigation. That said, his last posts against Glork give me the opposite impression of what I'd expect scum to do, so I'm really lost now. It feels risky for him to bother antagonising Glork in that way when he could continue to slide towards voting me.

I'd also like to say that I think Mgm is suffering from a SEVERE case of confirmation bias. Feel free to disagree with that, but I don't think he's even close to analysing this game objectively. I think he's decided I'm scum, and is trying to make absolutely everything he can point in that direction, while patently ignoring things that don't point in that direction. I don't think any one of his points against me makes sense. This is fairly depressing in itself.

[Mgm]

If I was scum who'd actually worked it out (and was planning on denying it later), I find it more likely that I'd have not mentioned that at all and just said "I can't read him".

If that isn't WIFOM, I don't know what is. Ever heard of the term "slip up"?