Mini 427 - Clue Mafia 3 - Game Over - Is this what happened?

[al_kohaulec]

Accuse: Battle Mage

I have no idea how to keep a good track of three very identical games w/o mixing them all up.

[al_kohaulec]

Please prod alkohaulec. I haven't seen him posting.


Why is it we're only on page 2? Our #3 game is on page 5! Start posting!

[al_kohaulec]

Good luck, town. For what it's worth, I'd rather you win than the mafia.

Wrong role to stick my neck out with, I guess.

Does this mean you're SK?

[al_kohaulec]

So BM and I were right in the other game in that there was another game you were scum in.

I do so love being right.

Vote: TCS

I'm weighing you in as town in the third game.

[al_kohaulec]

accuse TCS

with the candlestick in the library.


I saw the whole thing happen on ESPN 8 The Ocho.

[al_kohaulec]

So umm... .deadline?

[al_kohaulec]

Why?

[al_kohaulec]

I am Mr. Plum, a watcher, and I targetted Jack last night, and I got that MBL targetted him.

[al_kohaulec]

Hmm.. it's possible BM isn't sane. He could be insane or paranoid.

[al_kohaulec]

That is the other possibility is that BM was lying.

[al_kohaulec]

Accuse: MBL

My results paired with BM's current results and claim make a lot more sense now. Unless if I hear any reason from MBL to believe he's not scum, it seems pretty clear to me that he is.

[al_kohaulec]

The only one I saw, yes.

And I don't believe MBL, so

Vote: MBL

[al_kohaulec]

I also want to be clear on this for this particular game, since I'm a little confused on it.

Jack turned up Mr. Green, vig, didn't he claim Mr. Green, FBI Agent or something?

[al_kohaulec]

*bump*

[al_kohaulec]

Yah, the other game's been sleeping for 10 days now. We need to revive ourselves.

[al_kohaulec]

So... any words from MBL?

[al_kohaulec]

I don't think it's likely the mafia can't kill, at least not entirely. It's possible that only the leader had a kill and now that MBL is dead, the mafia can't kill. But whether or not that's true, I doubt it was true from the beginning.

But aside from that, there are many other possibilities as well.

[al_kohaulec]

I don't remember anybody claiming Mr. Plum.

[al_kohaulec]

Ah, I didn't remember claiming my name with the role. So I thought somebody else had claimed it... That's what really caught my attention on it.

And I looked over MBL's posts, and there's nothing I could find tying him with anybody. I haven't looked yet for anybody buddying up to MBL.

[al_kohaulec]

Cedric, do you think I'm scum? If so, do you think I'm another scum group, or MBL's goon?

[al_kohaulec]

Because I couldn't remember having claimed my role name from nearly a month ago?

When I first heard Cedric say that somebody claimed Mr. Plum, I thought I may have had somebody caught lying about their claim. So I made a mention about it.

So tell me, are you voting me for forgetting that I claimed my role name or because I said Mr. instead of Professor? This goes for both of you.

[al_kohaulec]

Claiming my name was not at all an integral part of the lynch IMO. It was the role itself that had all the information in it, so having claimed that was all I remembered.

As for the Mr. vs. Professor, I've made those errors before, and mustard is the only one I wouldn't make that error with. At thespival I had the FBI Agent card, and I claimed FBI Investigator. There's logically no reason for me to claim a rolename other than my own though, since as there's only 12 possible roles to be, if there is another Prof. Plum out there, he would've counterclaimed me and gotten me lynched.

[al_kohaulec]

Remind me again who the motorist was.

[al_kohaulec]

I may be able to answer your questions Cedric, after Ecto answers this...

So tell me, are you voting me for forgetting that I claimed my role name or because I said Mr. instead of Professor? This goes for both of you.

[al_kohaulec]

Ecto, you're ignoring my question.

[al_kohaulec]

BM, yes, I get all the names. But I'd rather not reveal my results yet.

And I don't think a mass claim is the best move for today.

[al_kohaulec]

The part that makes this more difficult to believe, DoS, is you are claiming an investigative role when yesterday we concluded there couldn't be 3 investigative roles and you never commented on that. So for you to avoid that yesterday and then come in today claiming cop is a little suspicious, it sounds kind of contradictory.

[al_kohaulec]

speaking of avoiding things, why are you avoiding the question posed to you?

I mixed together the two parts of the result and target and read "I want to hear your TARGET sometime today." You were my target.

[al_kohaulec]

that makes sense.
What do you think of DoS's comment that everyone has a power role?

If you weren't the tracker, this would sound too much like rolefishing. Even if it's not on your own behalf.

And I hope you understand if I said I want to keep further information on my results last night a secret.

[al_kohaulec]

What would you be your opinion on a mass-claim before we reveal our results?

BM

When I first voiced that I was against a mass claim, I hadn't considered both of our roles in the whole scheme of things. But considering both of our roles, a mass claim does make more sense. Not to mention the addition of another claimed cop.

And yes I'm willing to reveal my results later today, but as far as how many people I got targetting, I'm sure you have good reason to want to know, but I think it's best to wait until at least the time when we decide for/against a mass claim before I mention that. If we decide to do a mass claim, then I am willing to claim the number of targets before anybody claims.

[al_kohaulec]

Ok, sounds like we have enough people for the mass claim.

I would like Ectomancer to claim first.

As for my results. I have been very hesitant to say anything because I thought we may have gotten scum to slip up if they were not aware of what I knew, but your determination won't allow that, so I was roleblocked last night.

[al_kohaulec]

I can hold my disbelief of ecto until after we finish massclaiming. I'm impartial to flavor and name claims because I see it as moot.

However, claiming targets is another issue to be considered. There are benefits for and against it.

[al_kohaulec]

That is an interesting point to bring up, Ecto, but I'm not sure it's enough in my eyes.

Anyways, to answer you BM, I won't go too in-depth into a reason, but I found myself very suspicious of Ecto and wanted him to claim first so he would be much more likely to screw up his claim. Which it seems he may have done.

I still want everybody else to claim first though. And we need to come to an agreement on when we want to claim targets as well, whether while we claim or after we claim.

[al_kohaulec]

Yay! a claim. This is getting to be easy.

Thinking about what BM said, he's right, we don't need to force a massclaim from everybody right now since the end result, finding scum, has already occured .

Vote: Ecto

[al_kohaulec]

And there must be one or two goons under him. With the number of SKs, should we really expect there to be two goons as well?

It's possible, but I find it highly unlikely.

[al_kohaulec]

DoS, I have had reserved suspicions of HC's claim as well. And I also have some things to respond to in that after we hear more from DoS, but how can you choose to question an SK claim? What would he be trying to cover up if he's lying? The only thing I can think of is Jester, which sounds proposterous in this type of game.

BTW, I'm one of those players who considers SK a scum role.

[al_kohaulec]

Hmm... I must've overlooked your guilty result or something

Unvote

[al_kohaulec]

Honestly, the possibility of 6+ scum total is possible. I've played a game with 9/16 players being scum. It wasn't balanced, but it happened, and I wouldn't be surprised to see it again.

However, with so many kill roles, I don't think roleblockers and doctors alone would be enough to prevent all the killing (and cross kills too). Ecto probably is telling the truth of his inability to successfully kill, but there's no knowing how soon his kill will be successful if this is the case.

I think Ecto's the obvious play today, he's claimed scum, and tomorrow we can look at HC and other possibilities as well.

Vote: Ecto

[al_kohaulec]

I'll

Unvote

just to make sure we get more discussion in, but I don't necessarily see why we shouldn't lynch ecto first. Worst case scenario is all scum get to kill, in which case killing an SK gives us one less killing group. Haschel also isn't as guaranteed as Ecto to be scum.

[al_kohaulec]

I have no idea why he chose to roleblock before investigating, but I suppose this explains why there was no extra kill that night.

Well, I can see reasons for that order of choosing, but

I don't think that SKs can kill in this game

and I think that mafia would very much like town to go after SKs instead of mafia. I don't believe your theory that the role block explains why we had only two kills that night. I believe you are saying just that to make us believe that SKs are dangerous while they in fact are not.

I would still very much like the other players' views on the entire situation before going to night.

That is possible, but then I have to ask you, what's the balancing factor?

In a regular game, an SK is essentially a mafia that's already down to one member, or in other words a very weak mafia. If the SKs can't kill, but the mafia can, then the mafia's advantage over SKs grows dramatically (note: I'm not taking into account the town's advantage at all here, only the SK vs. the mafia). It stands to reason that there must be some special ability of the SKs if they can't kill, and even then they still seem weak.

Whether the SKs can kill or not, it's possible and likely that they have some additional ability to make up for their weakness, but from the deaths of the previous SKs, it's apparent that we aren't told what they are if they even have any. I do believe that the SKs can kill though, but to prevent half the town from dying at night, it's probably related to a percent chance of being successful or being dependent on which night they kill on.

[al_kohaulec]

So we're still left with a goon somewhere...

Vote: Cedric

I'm happy with either lynch. Don't know what's best between a goon or an SK, but it's still possible Cedric could be a goon.

[al_kohaulec]

Bah! Never did that before >_>

Accuse: Haschel Cedricson

in the library with the candlestick.

[al_kohaulec]

zindie's not playing the game, there's no reason to interrogate him. MoS said he'd be here tomorrow to update everything. Hopefully he sticks to that.

[al_kohaulec]

You're begging the question. >_>

[al_kohaulec]

Bah! Never did that before >_>

Accuse: Haschel Cedricson

in the library with the candlestick.

Accuse: Haschel Cedricson

Vote: Haschel Cedricson

Hammer: Haschel Cedricson

HAMMAH: Haschel Cedricson

Kill: Haschel Cedricson

One of those should work.

[al_kohaulec]

Accuse: Ecto

[al_kohaulec]

I'm thinking first we should finish the claims, I think we have c_d, Ancalagon, and dahen who still need to go.

[al_kohaulec]

Thanks Skruffs, I need to update that in my notes

I would say claims first, then you declare your result. Give scum a little bit less chance to... do something, I don't know what . But I think it'll be better to let others claim first.

DoS, I'd be interested in seeing who you want to claim first.

[al_kohaulec]

EBWOP, and from there, I guess he can choose the next person, and then the last person can go.

[al_kohaulec]

You might as well claim flavor and name, though that makes hardly any influence at all. But mostly claim role. After you claim your role we can decide whether we want actions or if we want to wait.

[al_kohaulec]

I don't see why you should have any fear of claiming if you're town, but that aside, I remember reading somewhere that the games, though there are three, don't directly relate to the movies. The similarities are of some interest though, but I'll try to find where that was said. Other than that, it does sound like you're trying to avoid claiming.

[al_kohaulec]

Ya, looks like Skruffs caught c_d's error before I got here. That's the only mistake I saw there is that BM targetted me and saw that I targetted Jack. And I targetted Jack and saw that MBL targetted Jack.

[al_kohaulec]

So dahen, are you saying you're a roleblocker?

[al_kohaulec]

Oh, nevermind. I was thinking DoS did get an investigation N1. Ignore that last question.

[al_kohaulec]

I am not averse to claiming. I'm Mr Boddy. I *Can* prove my role, but I am going to wait until everyone else has claimed to do so.

I haven't been reading too closely lately, so I only just now noticed your claim. How can you be Boddy if he dies at the very beginning before anything starts?

[al_kohaulec]

I targetted DoS last night, and got that c_d and Ecto targetted him. I chose DoS because I was thinking that he would be a more likely target than BM with his role. Of course my results don't give us any new information either.


Also, unless if DoS's innocent result is on Skruffs, I'm finding him highly suspicious, and some of those reasons I'll be withholding until later this day, but I want him to claim at least a little bit more before everybody else claims all of their targets and everything.

Ecto, I'm curious, don't answer this before we hear from DoS and Skruffs, but do you have any additional abilities?

[al_kohaulec]

Shoot, I just realized I misworded what I wanted to say... I didn't want you to claim your target until after hearing from Skruffs

if

Skruffs wasn't your target. Oh well, it was minor. But I still want to hear him say something more before the rest of us claim our night results. My reason is that after he knows everything about all of us (which he practically does by now), he can claim anything he chooses and we can't prove it one way or another.

[al_kohaulec]

Happy Scumday!

and those were the results I got.

Skruffs, I hope what you're being honest because I'm really skeptical here. And as for your question, why to gain your trust of course.

[al_kohaulec]

Lol @ al_ko
BUSTED!!!
Never ask caught scum for anything to be used to determine something. What possible reason would ecto, as scum, have for helping town by answering truthfully???

What are you talking about?

[al_kohaulec]

First of all, for my targets, I have successfully known who targetted Jack N1, and was confirmed by BM that I targetted Jack before BM said he was a tracker. And I also claimed he was the

only

person to have targetted Jack, which has never been denied. The third night, I admit could have been fabricated, but to attempt to fabricate it is a big risk. Ecto has no reason to tell the truth, and no reason to lie, other than to try to grasp a possible tie or unlikely win in this game. There were two good targets for you, one being BM, but I do agree that DoS was the better choice, and it's a good thing you did target DoS since he confirmed our roleblocker.

Also, with what you say in the beginning, it sounds like you think it's likely that the SK's know who the leader is or in some way know something about him (MBL), but that doesn't work out at all either. Let's assume MBL is the godfather of all of the SKs and I'm an SK and know who he is. If I knew that he was targetting Jack, that would imply nightly communication, in which case there would be much less crosskills and double targets than we've had. But even if there was some form of communication letting me know that MBL targetted Jack, then there's no explanation for me having targetted Jack as well. It doesn't make sense to try and kill somebody your leader is already killing, and BM confirmed that I targetted Jack. So if I was an SK, then I couldn't have any communication with MBL, which means that if I knew he targetted Jack and was the only person to have targetted Jack without being a watcher myself, then I must be an incredibly lucky guesser.

[al_kohaulec]

I.

I do believe that SKs knew who the leader was. Even with night communication, we have to take into account that it's a bunch of SKs with a godfather. I'm thinking they were probably just having a mutual relationship and planned to backstab each other at some point.

II.

Another theory was that the the SK knew who the leader was, but cannot communicate. In which case, the godfather would send someone to kill and that person would be informed.

III.

Scum generally send in their scum members to do the killing. I'm still doubtful it was MBL who killed Jack.

IV.

The main idea is that all scum are working toward their own goals. They only work together to use each other. That's the only possible explanation for the crosskillings, double kills, backstabbing, and oddities going on.

Statement one is plausible, there's a leader with all of his SKs, and they can communicate, but the SKs want to kill each other. Statement two makes some sense in SK interaction, because if there's no communication, they won't know about each other and will want to kill each other. The problem here is that with the godfather being the one sending the kills, that doesn't account for any crosskilling or kills after his death. So Statement 2 doesn't work. Statement 3 depends upon the previous statements to be true in that the SKs know who the godfather is, but fails for the same reason as 2. Statement four talks about how the scum are working towards their own goals, which is reason for the cross kills and such. Well, they're all coming up as SKs, so it only makes sense that they would be looking out for only themselves. This actually fights more against the previous statements.

Let's take a look at Ecto's post.

I never said I was out to make sure the town loses. I said I was out to secure a win, or at least a tie for me. Im not against the town, Im in it for me, so no, I don't agree to your plan. Right now I think scum is a far greater threat to my goals.

It's obvious Ecto is working toward his own goals. Especially when HC tried to compromise with him. There is definitely some sort of relationship going on, though it's not a strong one.

HC's compromise, IIRC, was that they start coordinating the kills of any scum still alive and uknown to match the kills of whoever lives between Cedric and ecto. As a serial killer, once you're dead it's game over, you lost. So if you've lost, then any further attempts you make in the game depends a lot on who you are. It seems like Cedric prefers to help another SK win over the town, but ecto so far seems more helpful of the town, but admits he's in it for himself, so it's in his best interest to help the town find scum and keep lynches off of his back.




And I am really interested in what Skruffs has to say. I have a few thoughts of my own on how we can try to guarantee a win myself, but my own plan still has some flaws in it, and so I'm also interested in hearing what DoS has to say.

[al_kohaulec]

The manner in which you presented your claim is strange. If you were protown, then you would realize that BM's investigation would be inaccurate. As a result, I don't find it likely that you would have blurted out your claim and result without prompt.

If you were scum, then I'd bet you would be tricked by it and try to pass it off as something else.

That is the more likely case and probably worked successfully given that BM wasn't a cop.

BM mentioned this as well. Claiming watcher doesn't shake off a scum result. It was a long time ago that this happened, and I can't remember exactly what I was thinking to tell you, but it was likely that he was either paranoid or insane. Thinking back, a sudden claim by me probably wasn't the best idea, but again, scum trying to pass off a scum result would've reacted more heavily towards either sanity, lying from BM, or to have just claimed miller, as BM mentioned. I did none of those, what I did had no effect on a guilty result, and matched perfectly with what he really was and really got before I was even aware that he was anything of a tracker.

[al_kohaulec]

[qutoe="alko"]
in which case there would be much less crosskills and double targets than we've had

What are you talking about?
There has been NO crosskills as far as I know. And what do you know about double targets if only one SK can kill per night, which seems likely?[/quote]

For crosskills, I was talking about TCS, but I just remembered that it's possible that was Mr. Green (Jack). What I mean about double targets is like when Cedric and ecto both claimed to have targetted BM, and the speculation that they were working on during that time also supports that SKs likely had no idea about how their kills worked.

[al_kohaulec]

Ooh, actually I think I do have a way to guarantee a win for us regardless of what Skruffs claims, so long as we don't have anybody else like the godfather who's immune to investigation.

[al_kohaulec]

DoS's plan is pretty similar to mine. We lynch ecto today, guarantee I can't be the killer by roleblocking me, and DoS's investigation will finally confirm me, and then that will leave us with Skruffs as the most likely candidate for scum.

[al_kohaulec]

unvote

Now I'm more interested in some more discussion before nightfall.

c_d, you claim all SKs have an ability, and yet you don't think it's possible I was roleblocked N2, correct? That combined with how your protection didn't do any protecting is interesting. I'm with Ecto in that DoS and Dahen are the most confirmed players we have right now.

c_d, who did you target N2?

[al_kohaulec]

I have not fake claimed, Those were the results I got, it was the information I've been given from my target. C_D already mentioned that his doctoring ability failed before, and if he is telling the truth, than we have no way of knowing when any of our targets are successful or not. Same goes for the serial killers. From what they've said, they've made it apparent that they are not always successful, even if not roleblocked/affected by a doctor. And roleblocking prevents ecto from doing anything, but he's still targeting DoS.

[al_kohaulec]

Skruffs, DoS is checking me, not c_d.

c_d, I thought I mentioned this before, but maybe not. My N2 target was BM

[al_kohaulec]

Yummy yum yum. I got a sandwhich.

I'll gladly await DoS's innocent result so we can lynch you, Skruffs.

[al_kohaulec]

That's not so strange as you might think.
What's your result for tonight, Alko?

My results tonight lay in the future, I don't know them yet .

But my results for last night was a rousing night of wild sex, until I realized day had started.


And I'm surprised you're just

now

suspicious of Skruffs.



Tonight, you guys should block and investigate Skruffs. If DoS dies, c_d is scum, otherwise you can easily no lynch and check c_d if Skruffs actually did come up town.

[al_kohaulec]

Yeah, I'm lynched, but I still believe we can win this game.

[al_kohaulec]

Thanks for your help ecto . I really wanted to avoid SK lynches as much as possible... but oh well.

[al_kohaulec]

yay
To quote Mr. Green:
"I *TOLD* you I didn't do it!"

Yeah, I killed BM last night. When al_ko said that he saw me targeting someone else, I knew he had something in mind and that he was the other scum. So of course I went along with it, and tried to use BM's death as reason to kill Skruffs. I still didnt see a way to pull off a win or tie, but I was going to keep trying anyhow.

I had the same idea.

Did al_ko fake his results N1 and end up lucky?

It wasn't luck, I considered quite a few options before roleclaiming, and also decided to do it very quickly, because claiming only hours after the guilty result on me helped make me look more cleared. I admit there was a level of luck, but I did consider many possibilities and watcher strongly outweighed my other claims.

Among those were: miller, tracker, actually I don't remember any others right now. I just remember those two.

What I really regret though is that my gut was telling me to claim "2" before our massclaim on day 2, but instead I tried to go a 'safer' route by claiming to have been roleblocked. That helped screw me over, but with all of the power roles, there's not much I could've done.