Mini 391 - Fairytale Mafia, Game Over

[LuckayLuck]

Random.

Vote: Green Crayons

[LuckayLuck]

divestment of accountability.

Well I don't know about the rest of you, but

I'm

impressed.

Honestly, this is like 1/1000th of a mafia tell, trying to buddy up to somebody, but I see nothing worse out there on the board right now.

FOS: Ripley

[LuckayLuck]

My vote on Green Crayons is no longer random. I'm now voting him for accusing me of something ridiculous. Everybody was laying low, no sign of mafia anymore, I made a suggestion that I saw nobody as being mafia-ish so I pointed out a small thing. Now, he's voting for me because apparently there was something bigger.

You honestly think there's something more suspicious? What was it before what I quoted?

[LuckayLuck]

Lame. I was hoping for three pages of spam.

I don't think the 3 pages of spam remark is a joke, it's what I hope for too, honestly, it's why I even riled things up by pointing out a 1/1000th scum tell. Someone needs to get the gears of mafia hunting rolling. I'm the type of guy who likes to poke at people to try to get a scum / townie tell.

In other news, I think that Echo419 demonstrated a 1/100th townie tell. CONTRARY to what you think actually GC. I think the more posts that happens, the clearer a pitcure and story is painted for townie observation.

[LuckayLuck]

But hurrah, you helped me chalk up a suspicion tally under Echo (granted a small one). So it wasn't all for shits.

This implies that you thought echo's post was scummy, I thought echo's post was townie. Neither of us said having more posts was a bad thing.

[LuckayLuck]

Granted, now I'm curious as to why you think Echo's post made him a bit more on the town side for you. His comment "Seems like they're jumping on each other for small reasons." seems like he's reaching for something to post simply so he can post something, which is what I've done a few times while scum. Granted, it's not much and is a pretty weak suspicion point (more or less just giving me a nudge to scruitinize his posts a bit more), but it's there nonetheless. I'm curious as to why he was moved in the opposite direction in your opinion.

I guess this entire thing has been a miscommunication

I quoted the following passage and said:

Lame. I was hoping for three pages of spam.

I don't think the 3 pages of spam remark is a joke, it's what I hope for too [...] In other news, I think that Echo419 demonstrated a 1/100th townie tell.

See, as a townie, I want more pages of "spam" to be able to find mafia. The way it was put, the very nonchalant "I was hoping for three pages of spam" thing very minorly says "hey, I'm a townie trying to figure things out."

wait, what the? You knew this already.

you think that more posts equals good.

yes, yes I do. Not good in the sense that the guy who posts more is necessarily townie, but the more posts we get collectively, the better we can deduce intentions and such. I mean, I know you know this, and I feel really silly explaining this, but we've just had miscommunication due to "punctuation" and interpreting quotes wrong...yaddayadda.

At this moment in time, I think that Echo is the most townish of all of you, which isn't saying much. It's a small hunch, the way he worded the 'wish-for-spam' thing. I'm somebody who actually really likes delving into townie tells, and I believe that Echo expressed one.

[LuckayLuck]

How do we know you're not a scumbuddy bolstering a partner early?

...

FOS: IH

---
(author's note: I have thought about how to respond to this for a long time, and this post is the well thought out and deliberate response.)

[LuckayLuck]

Seol, that's a really good analysis of what happened if I were to look at it from the outside. Amazing what one can do with "3 pages of spam" [disclaimer: this is what I meant as "spam" - 3 pages of pointing fingers around at small things to reveal intentions and such].

Honestly, I throw up the word honestly at the beginning of the sentence way too often, and I think I only do it as townie upon quick reflection. Obviously, you're not going to believe me here but I'll be eliminating that townie tell about myself in future games. Thanks.

Disclaiming your own position is also a tell. Here, you are not disclaiming it completely, but effectively doing so by playing it down to the point of irrelevance.

My default game is one of complete disclaimature. I get all the information I have out on the board, unless I think I can use it to my advantage later on by tripping somebody up. I was telling the truth - I didn't think anybody else was more guilty than that statement. And in saying that, I was fishing for responses. Somebody has to fire the first gunshot, I chose to do so, it's my style. I usually start off with a controversial claim such as "I think this guy is townie" (with Echo) or "I think this guy is mafia" (with Ripley). And it worked, here we are into the land of discussion. Great!

You don't think it's worth remarking on the third vote for Dodgy, or his OMGUS FOS response? You don't see anything in my comments on bird111 which you quoted? But that's not the point, it's very early in day 1, you don't expect to see anything of real merit. Stating that you don't is again a vibe of trying too hard.

I don't believe third votes on a bandwagon on a game of this size are telling (in fact, I think that too many townies jump on that and get a townie lynched). I certainly don't think that using a random dice generator to generate a random vote is divestment of accoutnibility, it's a random vote. I don't think that saying OMGUS FOS is a tell to each side, I actually sort of think it's townie because it's a glaring neon capital letter OMGUS OMGUS LOOK AT ME I'M TYPING OMGUS AND DRAWING ATTENTION TO MYSELF FOR NO APPARENT REASON. Call that a 1/100th townie tell. Anyways, my game has been extremely straightforward thus far; attacking the 1/1000th scum tell with a FOS. I don't bother switching my vote for people on a 1/1000th scum tell.


Oh, and good post Seol. You're moderately townie in my books.

[LuckayLuck]

Unvote

Vote IH

IH, you need to believe more in the power of the townie tell. Also, this particular statement really hit me as...strange. As odd. I've got warning bells flashing in my head.

You said he was accusing someone on a weak suspicion, which could be suspicious.
You then say that this in itself is a weak suspicion.
Therefore, wouldn't you just have called yourself suspicious?

It's such a circular argument which really goes nowhere. And if you come back and call me suspicious for calling your argument suspicious...


Also, this may or may not seem crazy to you, but I am going to now make a weird statement (believe me, this is well thought out and may or may not be used for a greater purpose). For the rest of day1, (barring something ridiculous, of course), I am going to assume that Green Crayons and Seol are townies.

[LuckayLuck]

2.

FoS:LuckayLuck

never assume automatically that someone is town or scum. You need to look at everyone objectively. Even if you are protown, you could be choosing someone to look on as a townie, who is scum, and completely ignore them.

I find it funny that we're having the same argument across two games that we're both in. If it bothers you that much, you can take my words to mean "I believe that Green Crayons and Seol are slightly townie." However, trust me that there is method to my madness. I don't have any finished games yet to point at as examples, but you might be surprised at just how objective my methodolgy turns out to be. Watch for future developments!

[LuckayLuck]

Oh, and good post Seol. You're moderately townie in my books.

Considering that this all started with the post where you suggested Ripley was buddying up to me, it seems like a) your behaviour is much more like buddying-up than Ripley's was (note the implied trusat) and b) you're not in the best position to criticise people suggesting that you're buddying up. Smacks a little of hypocrisy.

You didn't respond to this point. Seems like a good time to remind you of it.

I play drastically differently from other people, as you're soon going to find out. When I buddy up, it means that I've found you to be townieish enough under whatever crazy criteria I have and I am looking to form an open masonry with you. Let me expand on this...

I find it funny that we're having the same argument across two games that we're both in. If it bothers you that much, you can take my words to mean "I believe that Green Crayons and Seol are slightly townie."

There's a

world

of difference between "assuming [we're] town" and "believing [we're] slightly townie".

That world of difference is non-existant the way I'm going to play. I am going to state my plan very clearly right now: I think that you are a townie. I will now treat you as a mason and assume that you are a townie. Now then Seol, now that I'm treating you as a mason, let me give you my views about GC:

Hey, you're trying to find scum / townie tells too! Cool! However, everything you've quoted about GC - it's not scum tell. It's townie tell. Really. I'm not going to tell you exactly what that townie is, because then people can fools me, but re-read it and think in your head "is this what a townie says?" and your answer will hopefully be yes.

GreenCrayons, I am extending my masonry offer to you as well.

Seol and GreenCrayons, if we can form a three-way-masonry here, we are going to be golden since you two are both pretty active posters which have given off townieish vibes to me. We can death star the mafia!

[LuckayLuck]

Are you playing to win?

Yes, I'm playing to win.
And I believe I've nailed you down as a townie. If you are indeed a townie, as I'm 95% sure of now, you should recognize that this is valuable information that can only be good.

And if I hadn't conducted this entire crazy shenanigans, I couldn't be as convinced of you being a townie as I am now. Now, at the very least, you have this benefit: anything you say I will take as being solid pro-townie advice. I'm looking at your posts from a mason point of view, not as a townie-trying-to-identify mafia point of view. Can you see how valuable that is?

[LuckayLuck]

My goodness. "1/1000th of a scum tell Ripley-buddy-basher LuckayLuck coldly rebuffed in shock dual-best-friend proposal". How much pathos and irony am I supposed to be able to take on a Monday morning?

When I do it, it's not a scum tell.
When other people do it, it's a scum tell.
This is because I play differently.

3) You've seen something of actual merit that hasn't occurred to me, and are not sharing that with the town.

[...]

If it's 3), share it, this is useful information for us, especially from someone who just a few posts ago was saying they were in favour of complete disclosure in the early game.

Complete disclosure...hmm...okay, I guess I lied. See, here's the thing: I disclosed that I think that you and Green Crayons are townies and will trust both of you. That is disclosing a lot, it's also somewhat controversial. I cannot disclose why I think this, because people can start jamming my townie radar with "fake tells."

Blind trust is dangerous

I know this. Though it may look like blind trust, you have to trust me that it isn't, and that this trust can change. I can't really disclose more than this because my ploy is still in progress, is already netting me useful information, just know that I'm not blindly putting my trust in people.

[LuckayLuck]

1) Why is it not a scum tell for you?
2) How are we supposed to accept that - just because you said so?
3) Why does your "playing differently" involve actions

that you recognise are generally considered scum tells

, which surely you expect to be attacked for?

1) It's not a scum tell because I will be using this methodology as both townie and scum. I don't have a history for it here yet, but I will have the base for it soon.
2) These are my first games here, so unfortunately, you have to accept it on blind faith...IH has confirmed that I do play this strategy in another game I am in with him.
3) To be explained on your next quote

I will not get off your back until you offer a satisfactory explanation.

Whatever your gambit was, it has backfired - you started by making a scummy statement (and I will consider it scummy until you give me good reason to think otherwise), and you have continued since in a manner which is

entirely consistent

with scum trying their hardest to get out of the argument.

Lucky's strategy:
1. Make possibly controversial, but often correct (imo) predictions that may or may not go against the crowd.
2. Strongly believe in these predictions. Call me crazy, but believing strongly in these predictions and then looking at what your target does in response is an extreme tell.


I don't have any complete games on this site yet, but all the current games I have will follow this strategy. Even the newbie game. The newbie game is the one currently furthest through but not over yet, is it kosher to link it as "proof"?

[LuckayLuck]

Jeez. You are, if nothing else, thorough.

Please provide links to games where you used this "strategy" on other forums.

I'm so hesitant to do this because I'm a nutjob there. Okay fine, here too. http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showf ... page=&vc=1
Reading through day1 should be enough to get to know my general style. No, I don't implement this specific "strategy" but I implement the same general concepts. Villager tells, an excel spreadsheet of doom, crazy theories. The background of the forum which I come from is a lot more casual from this, one-day-day/nights, everyone pretty much knows each other, etc. If it's any consolation, I seriously have a very good townie/mafia list throughout.

Are you saying that the comment was

intended

to be read as inflammatory and unjustified? Did you have any reasons to pick myself and GC? If so, what were they?

If I say that somebody has a townie tell (or, townie feeling, townie-ish, whatever), I am 100% serious. In my mind, it is justified...I mostly call them townie tells because some of them are the psychological quirks which townies tend to do (you would call this WIFOM, I use WIFOM a lot, don't diss WIFOM). Some of them are more solid evidence such as timing of responses and etc.

Okay, I'll reveal the reasons why I picked you and GC.

Initially, Seol, I picked you because you made a super-awesome accurate post. It's not just length either, it's...style, Type of response. You will no doubt try to pull off the same type of post as a wolf now that I know you slightly better and have seen more of your posting style, but I still believe you to be the #1 villager here as of RIGHT NOW. What really rang the townie alarm, however, was:

Luckay, I've got a newsflash for you. You're not Pooky.

Are you playing to win, or to dick around?

A mafia just can't possibly make THIS post 30 minutes after my crazy proposal of masonry. It's near impossible. This is my townie tell on you, Seol. As I said, I'm 95% sure you're a townie after that little bit.

I now "TRUST" and "FOLLOW" what you say exactly - because you've demosntrated the almighty townie tell. Could I have gotten the tell and had it strengthen even more now by first offering "masonry" and then by stating "95% townie" and such? No way! And you've followed that up with:

Are you playing to win?

Yes, I'm playing to win.
And I believe I've nailed you down as a townie. If you are indeed a townie, as I'm 95% sure of now, you should recognize that this is valuable information that can only be good.

Except

there's no information!

Blind trust is

dangerous

, informed trust is fine but I don't see any evidence of that. I don't want you to trust

anyone

without reason, including myself.

just 20 minutes after my retort. Seol, you're like 99% villager. And in my world, if I don't say 100%, it means I'm not using BLIND TRUST. I have turned around and lynched / led lynches for those who I have trusted as near-masons in other games. I have turned around and mason-ed with those who I have led lynches for. My style is very flexible, it provides the type of tells that I can see as useful whereas others might not, most of these tells if I presented them would get smacked down with the WIFOM argument...but you know what? WIFOM is legit evidence townies / mafia.

Seol, think of how important the input of a confirmed villager (via seer, for example) is. Townies can finally take the villager's word as gospel and argue directly with him about it with no nagging feeling in their mind "hmm...but...but...maybe he's mafia." Even those one sees as mostly townie...it can never come close to seeing someone as a confirmed townie or as a mason. I manage to do that, I frame it in my mind that someone I have a townie tell on IS a confirmed townie or a mason and treat them as such. A silly crazy exercise? No, it really helps me see their true intentions, gets you thinking on their level unlike that of just reading what they have to say. Sort of hard to explain.

The best thing is, if my mason seems strange at all, and this is something that can only really be seen from really treating your target as a mason and then sensing that slight disturbance...you have the best mafia tell of all time. Because your mason is supposed to be the best villager in the game.



Just...you'll have to recognize that I have a slightly different playstyle. Am I undermining the town? No, I help the town. Sometimes, I feel like a defense attorney for those about to get lynched. More often than not, and it's gotten a lot better recently, I've managed to stop townies from getting lynched / townies did get lynched but I did call it correctly and defended them. Am I ACTIVELY trying to generate reactions from saying "Controversial Target X is a townie"? This is secondary, really...as I've suggested, if this entire concept seems like pure crazy-talk, interpret my actions thus far as:

"I feel that Seol and Green Crayons are leaning townie."

Oh, I missed the reasons for why GC is townie. GC is townie because we had an argument over punctuation. We worked it out. Most importantly, however, GC has sifted one by one across all players who post something of worth. Votes all over the place. In some cases, this is a wolf tell, but in this particular context / voting style it is a townie tell.


Seol, someday...someday, we'll be masons.

[LuckayLuck]

GC: Follow this logic train


1. I state that I feel like Seol is moderately village.
2. Seol smacks me down. YEAH, smack me down baby.
3. I offer to be Seol's mason!
4.

Luckay, I've got a newsflash for you. You're not Pooky.

Are you playing to win, or to dick around?

5. I restate that I just found #4 incredibly townie-ish.
6. Seol smacks me down again! "Hey, you can't trust me, fool! You're talking complete crap / you're mafia / you've glared into my soul and have seen the inner townie"


Given my knowledge that I'm a townie, I know nearly for certain given Seol's particular style of answering (yes, I understand that a mafia can do the above 6 steps...but the wording, baby, the wording! Timing, baby, the timing!) that Seol is a townie.

[LuckayLuck]

Seol, someday...someday, we'll be masons.

... for all the world as if he's about to burst into song, maybe in a minor work by Andrew Lloyd Webber, though it can only be a matter of time before Seol arrives to crush his dreams brutally, yet again.

Ripley, you made a really good post. I am, in fact, waiting for Seol to rebuttal before I launch into an incredible insightful post which may or may not blow all of your minds.

[LuckayLuck]

TIME FOR THE MINDBLOWING POST!!

I'm largely happy with his response

YEAHHHHHHHHHHHHH We're finally masons!!!!

as I suspected, it's naive

Ignoring this part!


Presenting, for the first time ever on mafiascum, the Excel spreadsheet of doom!




Thoughts:
bird1111, Ripley, and wolfsbane - post more so I can peer into your soul.
yeloowbounder, jl2704 - be active

Echo419 is a townie based on his posts. Similar reasoning to that of Seol's. Obviously different type of style/timing/townie tells for him as he's a very different person than Seol, but Echo is a townie.

[LuckayLuck]

It looks like to get a 9.5 rating on LL's spreadsheet of doom you just need to attack him - pretty convenient if he's scum. I think the spreadsheet of doom is bogus. LL acts scummy and the people who attack him are pro-town. It is hard to argue with that. I agree with whoever said that you can't bait with scummy behavior. If LL is town then scum could easily put on their best townie act. I'm not convinced that LL could tell the difference. Against LL's crazy antics you can't tell what is scummy and what isn't anymore. There is one easy way to remedy this situation though.

WRONG!
IH has attacked me with just as much vigor as GC / Seol. However, it's all about timing, context...stuff like that. IH has not rang my townie bell.

Ditto Ripley, who I'm unsure of.

[LuckayLuck]

Hi everyone. I'm replacing in. Just give me till tomorrow to look through everything. I skimmed through a little, and I really don't like people who choose not to go through PBPAs. I've have content later.

It should be fun.
P.S. are you replacing jl240556234 or yellowboudner?

[LuckayLuck]

IH - each person's position is depended on number and strength of villager and mafia tells.

[LuckayLuck]

IH - each person's position is depended on number and strength of villager and mafia tells.

This is about as useful as saying "each person's position is dependent on how scummy they seem". You haven't actually told us anything.

I haven't encountered any villager/mafia tells that are worth noting, defending, and explaining yet besides Echo, GC, and Seol. the 6's/5's/4's mean nothing else than "how scummy they seem" and is almost meaningless other than slight personal opinion towards leaning town /leaning mafia.

[LuckayLuck]

Presenting, for the first time ever on mafiascum, the Excel spreadsheet of doom!

Which catalogues nothing more than vibes and vague impressions (at this point). A useful tool, sure, it helps organise the mind, but nothing remotely mindblowing (you want to see mindblowing, check out the Hardboiled Mafia Tool at Misetings).

Holy cow, that's mindblowing.
Anything like this out there for general mafia use?

[LuckayLuck]

LuckayLuck seems to have gone really quiet, which is a bit odd when he was so prolific at the start, and also when there's so much heat on somebody he believes with 95% certainty (if I understand his chart properly) to be protown.

I thought it would be really awkward to pop in and say "Hey guys, Echo is a townie."

Anyways, here I am, popping in to say: hey guys, Echo is a townie.

Also, I'm waiting for replacements for bird & yellowbounder. Getting the word from those 2 will likely alter my perception a lot. Not worth it for me to take a look at the minor sqiubbling at the moment when a much bigger thing of a new player coming in is...bigger.

Neways, nice to see you posting more Ripley, nice to see you here Lowell. The gears of townie / mafia tells are slowly spinning again!

[LuckayLuck]

Also, I'm waiting for replacements for bird & yellowbounder. Getting the word from those 2 will likely alter my perception a lot.

You really don't have the faintest idea what's going on, do you?

holy crap...
uhh...
omg.

Time to re-evaluate, I'll have something good soon. Also, I'll just say it again...Echo has evoked the townie tell at least 3 times now for me to have put him at 9.5 at the time of my post. And now, he's townie tell'd even more.

Echo = townie
I think I actually do have pretty much everyone now...all I need to do is mix all the data up and my magic box will come up with the answer.

[LuckayLuck]

LL, I must say.... do you just peg the people coming under the most heat as townie? (Refers to Royal Mafia and Canuckle)

No.
At the very least, you know that I don't peg people for townie just because they come under heat (Seol, GC)

However, when people are under heat, they give off larger signs of townie/mafianess.

[LuckayLuck]

I dunno about everyone esle, but I tend to ignore those epic point-by-point battles- the intricacies are insignificant to all but those directly involved, and it's a ton to read. 9/10, it's two townies convinced the other is scum, maybe subtley egged on by others, and not neccessarily scum either- there are people who can read and analyze these kinds of arguments. I know I can't, and it appears others dislike it as well.

Townie Tell #1: Does not end up attacking anybody while worsening their relationship with people.

Seol, I like to stay consistent...
I dunno... I was a bit interested in seeing LL's apparently mindblowing post. Looking back, most of my reasons for voting him were based on playstyle... which is aggravating, as it's such an easy excuse. I'll keep my vote there for now. I really don't like the whole mason thing.
I dislike Day 1. The problem is there isn't really much going on, yet we still have to get some discussion going. Too often scum slipups and town mistakes look similar. Be that as it may, I'll try to tkae a look at those monstrosities.
Any luck on yellow's replacement?

Townie Tell #2: I misread this post. I thought Echo was voting for me and admitting "it's aggravating, as it's such an easy excuse [to vote LL]". Now that I re-look at it, it's actually sort of a scummy post.

But regardless, I put Echo at a 9.5, and he changed his actions drastically such that now my 9.5 is actually accurate.

...lol...
Of course it's a lot harder to argue with someone who agrees with you...
Now I have a tough decision- keep attacking LL, even though he has me pegged as protown? Or back off and be seen as a person easily mollified? I will decide tomorrow.

In RL time, obv.

Townie Tell #2 (Real): A scum does not have this soliloquy with himself. This is a VERY strong tell.

Consistently scummy?

Consistently supporting my causes.

Do you think it's scummy (as opposed to poor play)?

That's just the problem. It's hard to tell.

Why does his saying he thinks you're pro-town make you want to stop attacking him? Does it make you think he's more likely to be pro-town?

Because attacking him undermines my own integrity. Attacking someone who thinks well of you means I have one less supporter.
Great. Now I'm a hypocrite.

Unvote LL

I've decided, after looking him over, it's his playstlye, and not inherent scumminess. Unfortunately I can see scum WIFOMing this a lot in future days... beware.
Seol, I have questions for you.
Are you voting me because I'm scummy, or because you think I'm good lynch?
Are you attacking me because I stopped going after LL, your quarry, or because of the reasons for it?
What is your opinion on Day 1 lynches? Go for most informative or most scummy? Do you see a difference? How much?

Townie Tell #3: Calls himself a hypocrite. Yes, scum can do this to WIFOM, but the context of this means he is not WIFOMing. It ends up that this is a really strong townie tell too.



Echo = townie

[LuckayLuck]

Townie Tell #2 (Real): A scum does not have this soliloquy with himself. This is a VERY strong tell.

I sort of agree with this. I think Echo was being very honest about his thinking, which is not, IMO, a scummy trait.

Townie Tell #3: Calls himself a hypocrite. Yes, scum can do this to WIFOM, but the context of this means he is not WIFOMing. It ends up that this is a really strong townie tell too.

Again, I agree, It's the 'honesty factor.' But this can be faked very easily.

Also, Luckay, you realise that the scum can read these tells and then adjust their behaviour accordingly? What's your success rate with this strategy? How many games have you won?

It is very, very hard to fake honesty.

Echo, the scum CAN read these tells and adjust their behavior, which is why I have been reluctant to actually give a full explanation of what exactly constitutes townie/scum tells, but I don't have my success rate to point to on this site so I'm going to be a little more explaining.

Success rate = high, win rate = high, I can tell you that much :p

[LuckayLuck]

WOOHOO
I just realized my first newbie game on this site has finished, and I can point to it as a really big signal that I may not be a nutcase. I am a little more subtle since it's a newbie game, but you'll see me demonstrating the exact same actions that I've been doing here.

It's only 7 pages, and townie sweeps by lynching two mafia on day 1 and day 2. I correctly assess two villagers and by process of elimination nail the mafia, which is my style.
http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.php?t=4194

[LuckayLuck]

vote: IH

.

Vote Count

IH (3) : LuckayLuck, bird111, Seol

Seol...I'm so happy that we're finally masons.
Anyways, this is the last time I mention this silly topic.

But for now, I feel like going

vote: IH

.

You know people are going to ask why, so why not save time and tell us?

I feel like IH has also been slipping further and further into mafia zone, with the failure to provide a single townie tell over all this time and all these posts.




Finally, it's town for my revised Excel Spreadsheet of doom!!! And, I will attempt to "mafiascumize" it - in other words, make it more palatable with more solid explanations.



in alphabetical order:

bird1111 - no surprise, inactive

Echo419 - I will go down to my grave swearing that Echo is a townie. I have several posts attesting to this. Is it WIFOM logic? Yes, but...why hate on WIFOM? It's all we have day1. The particular STYLE and timing and way Echo has spoken really makes me just insist on townie.

GC - your stock has fallen slightly since my last assessment of you, you have been giving off less townie-ish posts under my "strange criteria" of townie tells.

IH - your stock is plummeting. You're such scum. This is because of the following:

1) You have stayed on Echo (which is a terrible vote, in my rogue opinion) for a long time. This is not scummy by itself but combined with:
2) You have asked a lot of questions to many people, insinuating minor scummy things about each one - it's very subtle, and very clever.
3) You have not exhibitied any "townie tells."

Lowell - Post 204 is exactly how I felt, and it's strange that some other people [such as Mayhem and IH] don't see the..."anger" in the post. Ripley made a GREAT post, and I'm sure it was unintentional "anger"...casting suspicion, perhaps, but there -was- something in the tone. (Not just that post either, earlier, you have to admit there was some definite hostility -

Also, I'm waiting for replacements for bird & yellowbounder. Getting the word from those 2 will likely alter my perception a lot.

You really don't have the faintest idea what's going on, do you?

don't worry about it, I deserved it

Ripley's post is something I'll come to later

M4yhem: Somewhat new, made a lot of good posts so far, but I can't really lean either way yet on the meaning of these posts. Your 4 is just carried over from Dodgy. I think I can definitely pin you on something after I see more.

Ogre: Post more, you're at a 6 because Rathyr gave me a slight feel.

Ripley: You made a great entrance. Yes, you've been in the game the entire time but you "showed your colors" with Post 203 finally let me see your style, which SEEMS good. To be determined.

Seol: You continue to ping my townie radar.

Spectrumvoid: Enough re-reading! Give us an opinion!

Wolfsbane: Last, but not least, I want to actually focus on this guy the most because of the folowing reasons:

1) Has gotten ZERO heat so far.
2) I feel like he should get heat. Why?
3)

It looks like to get a 9.5 rating on LL's spreadsheet of doom you just need to attack him - pretty convenient if he's scum.

I told him a direct WRONG to this one...and it should be pretty easy to see that this is not true. My mafia tells aren't as good as my townie tells, but what I look for most is for people who don't have to put a puzzle together. Scum have nearly complete information. They may get lazy and slip up and reveal this. I feel like wolfsbane did here. On the contrary, one of my townie tells is obviously people who seem to not have complete information and are piecing things together.
4) Other, miscellaneous, minor reasons which are adding up.

Wolfsbane is my #2 to IH.

[LuckayLuck]

What do you mean by style? Posting style?

Yes

[LuckayLuck]

LL- I don't quite understand this: How is the remark you quoted by wolfsbane: "It looks like to get a 9.5 rating on LL's spreadsheet of doom you just need to attack him - pretty convenient if he's scum." - a slip up that shows he has nearly complete information?

It looks like to get a 9.5 rating on LL's spreadsheet of doom you just need to attack him - pretty convenient if he's scum. I think the spreadsheet of doom is bogus. LL acts scummy and the people who attack him are pro-town. It is hard to argue with that. I agree with whoever said that you can't bait with scummy behavior. If LL is town then scum could easily put on their best townie act. I'm not convinced that LL could tell the difference. Against LL's crazy antics you can't tell what is scummy and what isn't anymore. There is one easy way to remedy this situation though.

WRONG!
IH has attacked me with just as much vigor as GC / Seol. However, it's all about timing, context...stuff like that. IH has not rang my townie bell.

Ditto Ripley, who I'm unsure of.

It's a generalizationn which definitely does not ring true when even some slight observation is made to my rating system.

[LuckayLuck]

***DEFENDING ECHO***

IH is scum, not Echo. Echo is just a protown patsy. Vote IH! Lynch IH!

Discuss.

I really like this post! (Well...because it matches my feelings exactly).

I'm going to ramp up my defense of echo, previously I had Echo at a 9.75 townie rating out of 10 (which is extremely high) - and m4yhem's words describing echo pretty much describes my defense: Echo is a PATSY (and is protown.)

I cannot ever see myself making the following post as scum, and I can see myself making tihs post as townie - and, I think about others, and I really can't see them making this post as scum.

...lol...
Of course it's a lot harder to argue with someone who agrees with you...
Now I have a tough decision- keep attacking LL, even though he has me pegged as protown? Or back off and be seen as a person easily mollified? I will decide tomorrow.

In RL time, obv.

I can't get myself over this post. It's such a townie message...this is a clear indication of a patsy townie thinking aloud in the forums, whereas if you just glanced at it it sort of looks scummy wishywashy.
***END DEFENSE OF ECHO***


***RESPONDING TO IH***

I want an an LL post myself.

Okay, let me respond to your points of attack on me all in one paragraph...this post is constructed mostly by going through your PBP downwards, but I've edited it a bit to make it flow.

My style of play actually is extremely...un-defensive of myself. I fling myself at others to attack and rarely defend myself - I aim to prove myself as a townie by defending a townie heavily who gets lynched despite my best efforts, or by nailing a scummery. This is, in fact, how I mostly differentiate myself as a scum/townie: try my hardest, as a townie (more so than I would as a scum) to go for the lynch that nobody else sees...to defend the person that nobody else sees as townie. Other than that,

I believe I've found the true flaw in LL's playstyle, and why we can NEVER trust him to be town.

this is true, and this is not a flaw. This is sort of mafia philosophy land, but briefly: I believe optimal play results when nobody can trust you to be either town or mafia. I play in a reasonable manner as both sides, I lay out arguments, attack people, rank people in order of scumminess. I'd like to think I don't have tells on either my townie or mafia side. And of course, explaining my philosophy here is neither something to get you guys to believe me as a townie or a mafia - in fact, I would hope that the only way that anybody can ever read me as town is if my voting patterns clearly nail scum or clearly defend town, far beyond what any reasonable mafia could possibly do. Anyways, enough philosophy...

I actually thought that

My vote on Green Crayons is no longer random. I'm now voting him for accusing me of something ridiculous. Everybody was laying low, no sign of mafia anymore, I made a suggestion that I saw nobody as being mafia-ish so I pointed out a small thing. Now, he's voting for me because apparently there was something bigger.

You really think there's something more suspicious? What was it before what I quoted?

was one of my better thought-provoking posts...look back.

Does anybody see anything more suspicious??

I looked back when I made the post, I look back now. Nobody is denying this. I attacked the person who was most suspicious, I like provoking discussion and enjoy seeing scum react, or even crack.

[LuckayLuck]

Oh dear. Okay, how about...

Unvote

Vote Wolfsbane

Work with me here?

[LuckayLuck]

I was also away from MS.net when the voting occured. I will take credit for starting the wolfsbane wagon, however...I will also admit that if I was around, I would have unvoted wolfsbane. I am a sucker for role-claims.

Also, I now suspect

M4yhem

- 3rd up on my list of suspicion after IH & Wolfs. Yes, his beginning post was a nice sort of "summary" (which I see from both scum / townie).

CES & IH can be trusted nearly 100% here.

[LuckayLuck]

I want LL to answer:
Why exactly do you think m4yhem is scummy.

M4yhem on paper looks pretty clear from being the 4th out of 7 to lynch vote on the wolfsbane wagon. However, the interaction between M4yhem / wolfsbane as wolfsbane is about to be lynched is very fishy. It's my theory that M4yhem wanted wolfsbane to claim something believable, look good for being a key vote on wolfsbane on the first day, then have a good excuse to switch off later.

Plus, my Dodgy suspicion carried over slightly. Tone.


I think I can dig a Vaughn lynch. There are several people I consider very townieish at this point:

CES
IH
Lowell (missed on my first pass, but that vote on wolfsbane was vote key and very townie)


oh wait, there aren't
freaking echo and seol are dead :p
btw, I was biting my tongue on the echo kill, but I guess I'll just say that I really didn't liek it. well, obviously, now.

and now that I'm thinking aloud, maybe IH isn't actually a confirmed villager. Is a Gretel - Hansel masonry possible with Gretel being a good townie and Hansel being a mafia? That'd be pretty sick
Well, probably not, because IH was the 3rd vote on wolfsbane


Two out of three "townies" (and we haven't heard from Lowell yet) think that Vaughn's a mafia. I think we might have one then.


Last thought: three mafia in this game, right? (and a SK)
{M4yhem, Vaughn} as two of the remaining two mafia (or SK), I can dig

[LuckayLuck]

psssst...Vaughn, ima hammar you if you don't claim by Wednesday (let's say, at the stroke of midnight on Tuesday)

your defense does not tug at my townie heart strings to me, in which your main source of defense is citing a scum(buddy)'s "real actions" to your favor (which on a re-read is in fact what you say, posting content without posting content which in regards to you is like scumcentral)

you have decided to FoS IH(??!) as your main suspect. You think Hansel is evil? Or are you just not wanting to provide any further clues since you're scum?

COG is one of the clearest townies here, yo, also.

[LuckayLuck]

is it bad that this post made me feel awful now?

I really doubt scum plays this hardball "refuse to claim, if I thought my claim would save me I would've claimed" when the approach clearly has not worked. Ehhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh! He's basically claiming vanilla townie. And...I guess...I'm believing him. Or am I...I gotta take a closer look. Anyways, that's my gut reaction to his last post.

[LuckayLuck]

It's Lynch-or-Lose.

Mass claim?

Yes

Enter seer, stage left

[LuckayLuck]

LL, is that a claim? If it is, results.

It's...not yet a claim.
IH, go for the claim order!

[LuckayLuck]

I'm just waiting for Lowell.

[LuckayLuck]

That's a very interesting claim by GC.

I am Little Red Riding Hood, cop. Flavor: The wolf incident with grandma has changed me. I will no longer get duped.

Night One: Green Crayons, innocent.
Night Two: CES, innocent.


So here's where we stand: we had 3 kills on night 1. CES is the most clear of us, since nobody else has claimed being able to kill anybody.

IH is a confirmed mason. That's pretty clear.

I know I'm the cop.


By Process of Elimination, Lowell & GC have to be wolves then. GC must be a Godfather.

This makes a lot of sense - GC knows that I must be the cop since nobody else has claimed cop. If I claim cop and he claims something like townie, then they auto-lose since the cop has to be good, the mason has to be good, and the vigilante has to be good. So he claims cop first.

[LuckayLuck]

It is impossible for Lowell to be a townie here, nobody else has claimed being able to kill people, and IH is a mason.

This is easy:
Vote: Lowell <--- I'll bold this in about 2 days after some discussion

[LuckayLuck]

dude, IH, for serious?
I'm pretty sure there's 2 scum left, for a total of a 3 scum game. Only 1 scum has died so far in a 12 player game with a doctor and a masonry. It's possible that both GC and I are bum cops, I suppose, but I put the pieces together for a balanced game and it fit:

Cop
Doc
Masonry
Vigilante

vs

2 Mafia
Godfather

[LuckayLuck]

IH, do you think there are only two scum in this game?

[LuckayLuck]

I'm not really from around here, but I feel that 2 scum is standard in a 9 player game (with 1 cop).

Now we have 12 players, add in a doctor, vigilante, 2 confirmed villagers with a masonry, and I feel to be balanced there definitely needs to be a 3 scum team.

(And there's no survivor, because the survivor claim is so fake)

[LuckayLuck]

Vote: GC

[LuckayLuck]

...

GC and Lowell are both scum. Duh?

[LuckayLuck]

Unvote

Vote: Lowell

[LuckayLuck]

I held off on posting since that's...lynch? But I don't want to be shot.

GC is lying,

[LuckayLuck]

cut-off. <cont>

GC is lying, I can't believe that he didn't at least defend Vaughn at least slightly. The Vaughn lynch day really felt terrible to me, I vocalized it a bit late, the entire bandwagon was fishy late, and part of the reason why I'm so convinced on Lowell is how Lowell just hammered away. If that Vaughn lynch had been diverted (and it could have easily with juts a slight nudge earlier) we'd be in a lock to win.

His investigations are on the vigilante, and the village who he just let die! I'm the real cop, I don't believe I'm naive either because Lowell should turn up scum, this must be a 3-scum game since GC came up innocent as a godfather and thus to balance I would be a real cop. I believe without a real cop in this game, it would be too inbalanced in favor of scum.

Finally this one is the kicker:

Ugh. I'm such an idiot and more or less gave this game to LL since IH has said himself that he's "convinced" that I'm scum.

We should have lynched me, and then when my innocence came up, CES could have vigged LL tonight. Now, as it is, you can bet CES is dead tonight (regardless of if I or LL is scum) so that in the 3 person tomorrow the remaining townie (IH, in this case) won't have the opportunity to tie the scum with a night kill.

if he was really innocent, and we lynched him, it would be:

LL
Lowell
CES
IH
(2 scum, 2 townie)

CES shoots me (suppose I'm scum), scum shoot someone else:

Lowell
IH

would be the remainder
in which case scum wins


GC didn't calculate well enough since he's scummery
the only chance for us to lose right now is if I get shot

[LuckayLuck]

IH, note that GC is trying to side with you and is going with the "there are two scum in the game" story. Lowell is NOT A SURVIVOR. If Lowell was a survivor, if I was scum, and if you were a cop, the game would be setup in this fashion:

Pro-Town:
Cop
Doctor
Vigilante
Mason#1
Mason#2
Survivor
Townies (3)

Neutral:
Serial Killer

Scum:
Scum #1
Scum #2

That is an unreasonable assumption to draw.
Of course from my point of view it's obvious, let your bullet fly true at that fake cop.

[LuckayLuck]

I investigated IH.
IH is innocent.

Anyways...I'll be voting for Green Crayons, Green Crayons will be voting for me. I'm a cop, Green Crayons is not.

[LuckayLuck]

Vote: Green Crayons

About game construction: I thought you guys all believed survivor was a pro-townie role like Lowell made it out to be, who won with town and if it was just him and a scum remaining, town won. Were you guys thinking he was neutral or something?

I was right about game construction to the T because I have mafia game design/mod experience, and after peeking you as innocent even though it was obvious (to me) that you/lowell were the scumpair, I knew you were a godfather and the 3-scum team matched the balance of a doc/cop/vig/masonry as I've mentioned.

[LuckayLuck]

M4yhem, I thought you may have been a cop. *bang*