Mini 391 - Fairytale Mafia, Game Over

[LuckayLuck]

That's a very interesting claim by GC.

I am Little Red Riding Hood, cop. Flavor: The wolf incident with grandma has changed me. I will no longer get duped.

Night One: Green Crayons, innocent.
Night Two: CES, innocent.


So here's where we stand: we had 3 kills on night 1. CES is the most clear of us, since nobody else has claimed being able to kill anybody.

IH is a confirmed mason. That's pretty clear.

I know I'm the cop.


By Process of Elimination, Lowell & GC have to be wolves then. GC must be a Godfather.

This makes a lot of sense - GC knows that I must be the cop since nobody else has claimed cop. If I claim cop and he claims something like townie, then they auto-lose since the cop has to be good, the mason has to be good, and the vigilante has to be good. So he claims cop first.

[Lowell]

Wow. I can see where this one is going already....





Let's just say you're going to have some "questions" for the mod.

[LuckayLuck]

It is impossible for Lowell to be a townie here, nobody else has claimed being able to kill people, and IH is a mason.

This is easy:
Vote: Lowell <--- I'll bold this in about 2 days after some discussion

[IH]

LL, what were your results?

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Um, try reading his posts, IH?

Night One: Green Crayons, innocent.
Night Two: CES, innocent.

[IH]

......

I think that LL is paranoid. That would make sense with Little Red Riding hood. He could also be scum trying to narrow it down to a Lowell lynch. Do we know AND IT'S CONFIRMED, that there is 1 scum left? If there is, we should most definitely lynch the survivor (lowell) or else he won't have to win with the town, he can just lynch whoever.

[LuckayLuck]

dude, IH, for serious?
I'm pretty sure there's 2 scum left, for a total of a 3 scum game. Only 1 scum has died so far in a 12 player game with a doctor and a masonry. It's possible that both GC and I are bum cops, I suppose, but I put the pieces together for a balanced game and it fit:

Cop
Doc
Masonry
Vigilante

vs

2 Mafia
Godfather

[IH]

LL, you forgot an SK

and a survivor.

[LuckayLuck]

IH, do you think there are only two scum in this game?

[IH]

eh, I'm not sure myself. I would have already voted if I was sure.

[LuckayLuck]

I'm not really from around here, but I feel that 2 scum is standard in a 9 player game (with 1 cop).

Now we have 12 players, add in a doctor, vigilante, 2 confirmed villagers with a masonry, and I feel to be balanced there definitely needs to be a 3 scum team.

(And there's no survivor, because the survivor claim is so fake)

[Lowell]

Well this was inevitable.




From the beginning, I have assumed a few things about this game: (1) that there are 3 scum, and (2) that we have a vig, (3) that there was AT LEAST ONE cop.

When I woke up to the day's results and someone suggested claiming I knew I would be in trouble. And here's why: ONE OF THOSE ASSUMPTIONS IS NOT TRUE! From my role, there are either (a) only 2 scum and 1 cop, or (b)

3 scum and NO cops

.


I agreed to claiming, hoping to be put last in the order. When I wasn't, I had to make a choice. (1) claim "cop" and hope that scenario (b) above was the actual situation, or (2) give my real claim and pray... ultimately I chose (2) because if (a) were the case, I would be potentially setting up the last scum to run the table with very little effort (by "uncovering" me as a liar to prove his innocence). This way, at least, in scenario (a) I wouldn't be giving any added benefit to the last remaining scum.

Here's the bigger problem for me, however. I tend to believe scenario (b) is the case and that GC and LL are

both

scum. They realized they were the last two to claim and hadn't seen a cop, and decided to essentially ensure victory by creating "competing claims" BETWEEN THEM! One gets voted out and the other more or less rolls to victory.



Now....

I realize how unlikely that sounds, and that it requires either believing in no cop or in 2 scum. Take that for what you will.

I will say, however, that LL, despite claiming GC and I to be the last 2 scum, is weirdly focused on lynching me. In that case, I'd probably be more focused on outing the fake "cop". And GC is nowhere to be found. It's the endgame, he's essentially been counterclaimed out of his role, and he doesn't want to defend himself

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

I tend to think LuckayLuck is naive and that GC and Lowell are our scumbags.

[IH]

When I woke up to the day's results and someone suggested claiming I knew I would be in trouble. And here's why: ONE OF THOSE ASSUMPTIONS IS NOT TRUE! From my role, there are either (a) only 2 scum and 1 cop, or (b) 3 scum and NO cops.

If there were three scum, town would have already lost Lowell. There's 5 alive. Don't be stupid.

Duh there's only 2 scum and a cop.

I believe I'm convinced.

Vote:GC

[LuckayLuck]

Vote: GC

[IH]

unvote

[IH]

.....

FoS:LL

[LuckayLuck]

...

GC and Lowell are both scum. Duh?

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Um, let's lynch Lowell first. I think that's safer.

Vote: Lowell

[LuckayLuck]

Unvote

Vote: Lowell

[Green Crayons]

And GC is nowhere to be found.

Sorry, I've been having internet problems. And now

I'll be leaving for Paris later today so I won't be back until Sunday evening

, when hopefully all internet-issues will be resolved.

Thanks for paying attention. Your attempt to make it look like I've abandoned the game and the town should move on without me is duly noted.

But anyways, I see that the town (IH and CES) are against me in all but action.

LL's explanation makes sense, though you can easily swing his reasoning right back around to him - he is just as likely to be scum as I, and seeing that the cop has been claimed there isn't much else

to

claim that would go by unnoticed, and to help himself out he is looking for a push to lynch the cop by counterclaiming which may sacrifice him but it's endgame so it's a possible win. Frankly, I don't see why either IH or CES have been won over by LL simply saying "GC isn't the cop, I'm the cop, he's lying" but whatever.

I find it curious that Little Red and Wolf are not only so closely connected in their stories, but are also antagonists. If we have a reformed Big Bad Wolf, who is to say that Red hasn't gone bad/godfather (never saw the movie, but didn't Hard Candy have something to do with a girl in a Little Red Riding Hood outfit killing people)?

Frankly, I believe Lowell is a survivor, simply because if you claim survivor the town is going to lynch you. Nobody claims it. It's a stupid thing to fake claim. Regardless, I believe he's a good play for the day, as I'm curious as to what my result for LL will come up tonight.

Vote: Lowell

.

[Green Crayons]

Ugh. I'm such an idiot and more or less gave this game to LL since IH has said himself that he's "convinced" that I'm scum.

We should have lynched me, and then when my innocence came up, CES could have vigged LL tonight. Now, as it is, you can bet CES is dead tonight (regardless of if I or LL is scum) so that in the 3 person tomorrow the remaining townie (IH, in this case) won't have the opportunity to tie the scum with a night kill.

Stupid, stupid, stupid. Ah well. Since IH seems to be completely in LL's pocket, CES, I have one request: Take the game into your hands tonight and kill either me or LL. Granted, my fingers are crossed that you make the choice to kill LL (because he's scum), but I have more trust in you than IH to look the game over and give it an objective read through of both LL's and my own posts.

In rereading, you will see that my posts reflect my investigations (1. originally said on Day One that I would look into a link between wolf and Vaughn if one turned up guilty, but when wolf was guilty the next day I wasn't for a Vaughn lynch - because of my investigation; 2. my investigation of you was because of the comment you made about the night kills, which I noted in one of my posts), which is the only real evidence I can give as to my role.

Is this to say that LL is scum if you were to read into his posts? To be honest, I don't know. I didn't ever really think LL was scum, but since it comes down to either LL or myself, and if I am not lying, then he must be it.

Anyways, CES. Please give this game a chance.

[IH]

Why do you think I unvoted GC?

He's pretty much jumping for a lynch at lylo....

[LuckayLuck]

I held off on posting since that's...lynch? But I don't want to be shot.

GC is lying,

[LuckayLuck]

cut-off. <cont>

GC is lying, I can't believe that he didn't at least defend Vaughn at least slightly. The Vaughn lynch day really felt terrible to me, I vocalized it a bit late, the entire bandwagon was fishy late, and part of the reason why I'm so convinced on Lowell is how Lowell just hammered away. If that Vaughn lynch had been diverted (and it could have easily with juts a slight nudge earlier) we'd be in a lock to win.

His investigations are on the vigilante, and the village who he just let die! I'm the real cop, I don't believe I'm naive either because Lowell should turn up scum, this must be a 3-scum game since GC came up innocent as a godfather and thus to balance I would be a real cop. I believe without a real cop in this game, it would be too inbalanced in favor of scum.

Finally this one is the kicker:

Ugh. I'm such an idiot and more or less gave this game to LL since IH has said himself that he's "convinced" that I'm scum.

We should have lynched me, and then when my innocence came up, CES could have vigged LL tonight. Now, as it is, you can bet CES is dead tonight (regardless of if I or LL is scum) so that in the 3 person tomorrow the remaining townie (IH, in this case) won't have the opportunity to tie the scum with a night kill.

if he was really innocent, and we lynched him, it would be:

LL
Lowell
CES
IH
(2 scum, 2 townie)

CES shoots me (suppose I'm scum), scum shoot someone else:

Lowell
IH

would be the remainder
in which case scum wins


GC didn't calculate well enough since he's scummery
the only chance for us to lose right now is if I get shot