Team Mafia: Pick Your Power (Game Over)

SpyreX · Post Post #11 (isolation #0) » Sun May 15, 2011 7:01 am

Spoiler: PYP 1

Spoiler: Scum

Spoiler: PYP 2

Spoiler: Scum

Spoiler: PYP 3

Spoiler: scum

Spoiler: PYP 4:

Spoiler: scum

Spoiler: PYP 5:

Small sample size yea yea:
1.) Scum have never, ever doubled up. This leads to:
2.) Scum have been in the top 4 every game.
3.) Scum prefer sweet delicious roles (Cop, Vigs, Jailers).
4.) Getting to actually play is kinda awesome.

Now, with this mix of roles I doubt #1 changed. Mostly because of the combination of Goon Cop + Sweet Delicious Vigs. If that is the case, the chances of #2 being changed is minimal.

So, lets remember this (I THOUGHT about massclaim to play true shenanigan ball but I'm on the fence).

That said:
AT LEAST 1 scum in: Kise, Prana, GI, Quadz.
Probably exactly 1 scum: LLD, Zito, Farada, Slaxx
It'd be awesome if the mystical scum is in: SSBF, DDD / Hoop, Amrun

I've got more predicitions and hypothesi' but someone and they know who they are I need to comment on this immediately.
Yea, thats right. No RVS. No shenanigans.

The game starts here. I plan to win.

SpyreX · Post Post #13 (isolation #1) » Sun May 15, 2011 8:04 am

Ohhh and:

Vote: GI

Even IF you were going to say scum doubled up for WIFOM which is of far less value than actually getting PR's - why would you have went for LLD instead of the obvious Faraday / Slaxx 6,1 team double up "scum would never do that" WIFOM?

SpyreX · Post Post #16 (isolation #2) » Sun May 15, 2011 8:26 am

Zito's list?

ZITO's?

Why I never.
-----

2/3 in the top 4 Fara?

SpyreX · Post Post #20 (isolation #3) » Sun May 15, 2011 8:34 am

I could see it but too delicious. To IN YO FACE, if you were.

I still am floored by the "6's scum therefore not the doubleup" though

SpyreX · Post Post #29 (isolation #4) » Sun May 15, 2011 8:59 am

Too soon damnit LLD. Too soon.

Needless to say I'd be a bit surprised if the GI wagon was all town either way even at 4 BUT I wanted more before it goes that way.

SpyreX · Post Post #32 (isolation #5) » Sun May 15, 2011 9:05 am

His opening post is lacking in logic, which is unusual for him, imho. It's already been commented n several times.

In fact:

VOTE: GreyICE

My vote might as well be doing something.

I have no stances!

I prepared those lists pre-game before anyone posted anything.

Give me YOUR stances, LLD.

You know who is scum on page 2 when likke half of the playerlist has posted? Bully for you. I don't.

Vote: Amrun

SpyreX · Post Post #39 (isolation #6) » Sun May 15, 2011 9:11 am

Grey essentially is an RVS vote.

He seems to stand out the most to me as of yet, so I voted. By no means am I sure he is scum.

Line one and line two are going to fight with knives. Because they are matter and antimatter.

SpyreX · Post Post #46 (isolation #7) » Sun May 15, 2011 9:31 am

Of course they're not concrete good lord and holding these 'mystic' reads close the the chest right now is not tech.

Sup Slaxx. No way that was sarcasm

SpyreX · Post Post #50 (isolation #8) » Sun May 15, 2011 9:35 am

What? Just what?

Also:

But this mini wagon on me has already been useful, reads-wise, better than the grey wagon, which is good.

Elucidate. Now.

SpyreX · Post Post #58 (isolation #9) » Sun May 15, 2011 10:14 am

I'll bite Faraday a little:

Thoughts on the other posters then?

SpyreX · Post Post #61 (isolation #10) » Sun May 15, 2011 10:19 am

I'm torn in my heart of hearts because I agree with all your words but I was surprised at the Slaxx call too and these early wagons probably have a scum on them somewhere and, as you said, it aint me and it mos def aint lld - but I doubt its you too soooo

SpyreX · Post Post #115 (isolation #11) » Sun May 15, 2011 2:25 pm

quadz wrote:Spyrex's first post is mostly useless; all the scum could be sitting at the bottom, or all at the top.
Totally random probability
does not change based on past experiences. (There's a little bit in there about scum not doubling up which makes sense, but that's about it.)

Amrun's first post is NOT useless. That is valuable information that we should all keep in mind.

No way in hell does this happen in the team setup. No way would little town bird quadz get away with this with a QT of people who hopefully at least knew what PYP was.

Double awesome points for saying what was useful in Amrun's regurgitation is mostly useless in mine too. Well played.

And Faraday I swear to everything holy don't you white knight this based on team-meta.

------

And we'll go ahead and nip this in the bud so any wonder powers can recalibrate: LLD is town. Not pretend town, not "ohh maybe town" not "gee golly its too early for reads but she feels town town".

We're talkin A grade town.

I'll give SSBF the benefit of the doubt but watching Amrun leap there isn't a surprise.

GI wrote:My post on the numbers was a ridiculous idea I kicked about. The scum habit of choosing low/middle/high in reasonably even spacing was very apparent from games 2-4, as was their 'we never double up' meta. If they decided to double up, the number 6 wasn't a bad one.

Scum are going to be very aware of the meta they had from previous games of being in the 'low/middle/high' and account for it in some way. I think doubling is possible this game.
Though it's probably safer to assume that scum aren't in the 6s
, and let the goon cop/gunsmith figure things out.

Italics is also bad. I swear. Low/middle/high is kind of a misnomer - its far more a function of "all different because that gets us higher on the list". I've also got the added benefit of having all those QT's and knowing that in more than one game they sent in numbers, saw what the partners sent in,

made sure there was no duplicates

, and called it macaroni.

PYP 1 is irrelevant as the draft worked way differently. numbers and roles before alignment, was it? Something like that anyway. SpySpy probably remembers better than I.

I like LLD. Also 6) means SSBF is town.

No, scum could always coordinate I'm pretty sure.

SpyreX · Post Post #117 (isolation #12) » Sun May 15, 2011 2:33 pm

I'm saying you've went "2 scum in 6's!" "0 scum in 6's!" when I'm betting there's 1 scum in the 6's because the spread being what it is.

There's no wifom in the numbers themselves - its a matter of how it shakes out.

Although you're 'all late' with the play is starting to have some merit ZING.

SpyreX · Post Post #119 (isolation #13) » Sun May 15, 2011 2:38 pm

Ohhh that's right. I remembered the numbers being sent but I thought they could change them. Guess not.

The simple fact posts like that one happen means the whole team dynamic on that side is a wash. Maybe they opted to stuff the scum to the weakest link and accept a loss? Who knows.

All I know is if you can straight face me and say that isn't some vig/rope worthy double talk there I dont even know. Or, to put it different - if Amrun flips scum, you gonna fight about quadz danglin?

SpyreX · Post Post #130 (isolation #14) » Sun May 15, 2011 4:24 pm

... What, exactly, are you arguing with me about? I do not understand the first point.
Also, I said that the stuff in your post which was similar to what was in Amrun's post was useful. It's the rest of your post that's useless.

And you're wrong and probably scum.

Amrun's post, in entirety, is a subset of what I said. 100%.

Further, the part that Amrun didn't address is where I'm expecting scum to lie and what I'm expecting scum to pick to a degree. You know, the whole actually looking for scum versus looking for not scum (which is pretty easy when you're scum in a non multiball).

I'm very, very tempted to derail this your way what with you being a scum PR and Amrun probably a goon.

SpyreX · Post Post #132 (isolation #15) » Sun May 15, 2011 4:38 pm

Hoopla.

<3

Thoughts on my spread from an analytical side?

SpyreX · Post Post #134 (isolation #16) » Sun May 15, 2011 4:44 pm

And needless to say I knew a double up was more town power but the natural extension of voting directly as a function of it didn't hit because I was thinking of it as risk/reward (i.e. chances are high we're hitting a PR (Vig-townside) regardless of alignment in the top 4).

But yea I could swing a quadz/gi.

Also, since we're talking about it on this side thoughts on a Goon Cop moving outside the 6's? I thought about it as trying to lockdown the smaller neighborhoods but the chances of a false there go up versus just running the list backwards.

SpyreX · Post Post #137 (isolation #17) » Sun May 15, 2011 4:58 pm

This is assuming we ran both Gunsmith and Goon Cop townside - which is pretty much a slam dunk that's only happening in a few situations (and, of course, there's a downside to that).

But, hypothetically I'd run GC-6's and probably 6-9 GS all else equal.

SpyreX · Post Post #138 (isolation #18) » Sun May 15, 2011 4:59 pm

So now that important business is started Hoop wanna help me out with this?

Vote: quadz

SpyreX · Post Post #140 (isolation #19) » Sun May 15, 2011 5:04 pm

See the dissonance in his bad/good analysis.

I could also see a GI.

SpyreX · Post Post #141 (isolation #20) » Sun May 15, 2011 5:05 pm

On an entirely different note that I debated looking at this from a players side - thoughts on smallvilling it? It'd force a lockdown and would pretty much oust any funny picks but it does hand the keys to the proverbial castle for the NK.

SpyreX · Post Post #144 (isolation #21) » Sun May 15, 2011 5:31 pm

Early makes sense.

No we're not having a vig teaparty. Its gonna be pretty obvious what the nature of the beast is.

SpyreX · Post Post #149 (isolation #22) » Sun May 15, 2011 5:48 pm

I'm holding to number theory but not over actual behavior and Amrun does grate.

Why 1,1? Went for broke - either it'd be #1 or stuffed right in the middle (I didn't expect 3, I figured worst case was a second).

SpyreX · Post Post #162 (isolation #23) » Mon May 16, 2011 6:01 am

Well THERE you are:

@SpyreX: No. Don't even give SSBF a pass to Six Flags. He and Amrun placed 6th and 7th in the draft. Their scumteam likely lucked out and became goons. It's a very plausible idea that scum would scramble to save each other and shoot down early scumreads against their own partners, knowing that town overpower them.

6-7 probably isn't both goons if they're both scum.

Hoop is right in that there's a definitive edge if its a low-end scumteam.

GI is, was, and will be full of rainbows and quadz isn't bad. Amrun as well. SSBF is in that second tier of for death.

SpyreX · Post Post #166 (isolation #24) » Mon May 16, 2011 6:56 am

Zito's a great place for a GC to look.

The fact you've went "definitely in the 6's, definitely in the 9/1's, NO SIR NOT DEFINITELY IN THE TOP 4" is enough that I'm not happy. And covering for GI under the Amrun business gives me the willies.

Of course:

Prana: If what you're saying is true, why would I isolate myself and Hoopla as a group possibly containing 1 scum? What is the scum motivation there?

The simple fact if you hadn't you'd have been busted immediately? GEE GOLLY

SpyreX · Post Post #168 (isolation #25) » Mon May 16, 2011 7:04 am

On the plus side,
there's at least one scum out of the 9's and 1's,
we now know Hoopla is safe. Thanks Amrun. Also LLD is safe by default thanks to that terribad post. Check to make sure nobody has recently played in a game where you pick your alignment with someone before you make stuff up about her favouring certain alignments.

Considering people are claiming these three are town:
Lady LambdaDelta ( 6 , 2 )
Faraday ( 6 , 1 ) <--- Random Winner
Slaxx ( 6 , 1 ) <--- Random Loser

Why is:
Papa Zito ( 6 , 9 )

Not being called scum?
There's one scum in that bottom group,
and I'm not saying it's Zito, so we need to take a closer look down there at some point.

There's possibly one scum in the top 4 players
. It's not me, it's not GreyICE, and I get a town feel from Kise so far. So if there's scum up there, it's Quadz.

Its not, huh?

SpyreX · Post Post #175 (isolation #26) » Mon May 16, 2011 7:57 am

Jesus do you look at the bolds.

"There's at least one scum." "There's a scum" "There may be a scum."

One is not like the others. The one that IS true.

So yea hurf it up but words have meaning and that qualification is exactly what I called out.

Slaxx's beetlejuice needs be mentioned.

SpyreX · Post Post #177 (isolation #27) » Mon May 16, 2011 8:08 am

So we're back to GI logic or scum picked 1 6 and 9.

Both are awesome. Glad to see where we stand.

SpyreX · Post Post #179 (isolation #28) » Mon May 16, 2011 8:15 am

Are you saying Amrun and GreyICE could be scum together? Yes or no?

Are you saying scum didn't pick 1, 6 and 9? Yes or no?

Are you suggesting Quadz is town? Yes or no?

1.) Yes they could - this isn't hard. Its not SLAM DUNK but good lord.
2.) All three? Never ever. I'm not banking on the worlds unluckiest scum what with the paragons of townosity we're seeing from those slots you're so determined to protect.
3.) YES I AM HENCE THE VOTE. GOD.

God more serious business tough questions?

SpyreX · Post Post #186 (isolation #29) » Mon May 16, 2011 8:37 am

With 2, you're saying there's zero chance, at all? Interesting. I'd say there's as much chance of that as there is of 2 in the bottom 2/3rds and 1 at the top. Which is pretty much my point. If you notice, I've pretty much said there's 1 scum in the 6s, 1 scum in the 1's/9's, and 1 scum in the top 4, which is Quadz.

That is categorically NOT what you've said. Hence the whole issue.

You said there was one six, AT LEAST one in the 1/9's and POSSIBLY one in the top 4 and if it is its quadz.

Those are way, way different.

Much like how I said there is one six, AT LEAST one in the top 4 and POSSIBLY one in the 1/9's. Get it.

Which means *gasp* I could be wrong about the who's who but watching the teehee FROM THE TOP FOUR makes me sure as hell think I'm not. As it sits if I had three bullets right now only Kise would be left standing.

SpyreX · Post Post #187 (isolation #30) » Mon May 16, 2011 8:39 am

LLD help me out here. I'm not going crazy.

Lets assume Amrun teleports away for the moment. Tell me I'm not losing my mind with the reactions of our brigade of winners.

SpyreX · Post Post #190 (isolation #31) » Mon May 16, 2011 8:55 am

I'm being greedy LLD. I'll admit it.

Greedy is fine, just not crazy. Thats the important part.

SpyreX · Post Post #192 (isolation #32) » Mon May 16, 2011 8:59 am

I bet you can figure that one out.

If you try and cant maybe I'll tell you but it should be pretty obvious.

And normally a 3 person wagon I couldn't get behind but I think you're right about LLDs. Which is sicck

SpyreX · Post Post #196 (isolation #33) » Mon May 16, 2011 9:47 am

I want blood.

Like I said, I'm being greedy. I want scum PR blood. I want the blood that is in that top 4.

If this is an even spread AND we didn't go WOOSH on picks neutering that spot and then mopping up is delicious.

I'll lynch Amrun, but I'd mos def prefer GI/Quadz.

Unvote, Vote: GI

SpyreX · Post Post #199 (isolation #34) » Mon May 16, 2011 10:05 am

Thoughts on prana? I'm not crazy right, his first post smelled funny? I know you've been picking him apart but is it a case of he's smoking crack or he's scummy for it?

Scummy. 3 of the 4 top 4 have done some version of these aren't the droids your looking for.

Like I said 3 bullets would leave kise standing on a pile of bodies.

SpyreX · Post Post #205 (isolation #35) » Mon May 16, 2011 10:40 am

Yes this is all number envy I am undone.

It has nothing to do with the numbers. It has everything to do with a backwards analysis - which means you understand whats going on and chose more than once to be obtuse.

There's not a true science in the numbers. However, there's a lot to be said when you're in the top 4 and go "Scum obviously bottomed out. Ohh just kidding!"

Its not an accident I'm all over you 4 chuckleheads and its not a function of OHH YOU HAVE A ROLE because roles do fall down the chain all nice and juicy. It is a simple truth: you 4 have a much, much higher chance of having a scum within your number than anyone else. Period.

This is further exacerbated by quadz's, Prana (who you've now called a major player with his first post being two pages ago NOICE), and your responses to this fact.

Now, its not a shiny world where all three of you are scum. But 1? Hell yes. 2? Sure looking like it. Plenty to reward the whole group of you with bullets.

SpyreX · Post Post #215 (isolation #36) » Mon May 16, 2011 11:11 am

Faraday: The Tipping Point

There's one thing I'll disagree with hoopster about:

Your Slaxx vote is weak and at best a longshot. Best case scenario is that there is one scum in the 6's, giving you a 25% chance of success - that doesn't even filter in the chance of zero scum being there.

I'd be surprised if there wasn't 1 scum there. But yes.

Ohh preview edits what can't you do.

SpyreX · Post Post #235 (isolation #37) » Mon May 16, 2011 5:48 pm

I think that there’s too much lynch discussion happening based on number speculation right now. When we have information to use; then we can use it but right now I can come up with at least three or more different plausible theories for scum behavior in regards to numbers so to base today’s lynch even somewhat on that and not on who is scummy seems like a massive mistake.

SpyreX’s “beetlejuice” comment in regards to Slaxx seems to be on point; unfortunately I have no idea if it’s valid as a scumtell. I’ve seen it used before but I don’t seem to have it having any notable success rate.

I’m not sure what to think of Hoopla’s arguments; I think she’s overthinking things considerably and I’m wondering if it’s just cover for her not to scumhunt. Will consult my team on the matter.

I'm not abandoning lynching scum in favor of number theory. They can work in tandem.

Beetlejuice works both ways. I've had really good luck with it (and, if Amrun is scum you can sure add that to the tally) - thing is I have a decent vibe from Slaxx. Not powerhouse town 9000 but decent.

Hoop's got me a bit worried I'm not gonna lie - not for what she's said (its all spot on) but for the absence of fire thus far.

SpyreX · Post Post #241 (isolation #38) » Mon May 16, 2011 6:30 pm

This compilation better be compiled and tonight.

SpyreX · Post Post #244 (isolation #39) » Mon May 16, 2011 6:36 pm

Its not a negotiation and believe me if there werent these naughty voices in my head keeping my fangs from bearing I'd be a deathtrain the likes the world has never seen.

Claim. You'll get your post.

SpyreX · Post Post #246 (isolation #40) » Mon May 16, 2011 6:43 pm

Hmmm. Well, no hammers until you post.

I'm parsing that DESPITE my instinctive desire to hammer you because ohhh man if thats true I've got words for that top group (or there is 2 scum there OHH SNAP)

SpyreX · Post Post #249 (isolation #41) » Mon May 16, 2011 6:47 pm

Gunsmith doesn't fall that far unless there's two scum above. If its true AND Amrun is town.

If Amrun is a scum Gunsmith I dont even know.

SpyreX · Post Post #251 (isolation #42) » Mon May 16, 2011 6:49 pm

Gunsmith has a LOT of false positives - but, the negatives are 100% town which means it should have damn well been picked earlier than that.

Go check my very first post for all that sweet information.

SpyreX · Post Post #255 (isolation #43) » Mon May 16, 2011 6:52 pm

Which you?

There's some differences but really any PR the town really want the scum would consider spite picking and etc.

Gunsmith at 6 though... that's tough (and I don't agree with DDD about order but)

P-Edit:

.... your team thought role cop would go over gunsmith?

SpyreX · Post Post #261 (isolation #44) » Mon May 16, 2011 6:58 pm

You want me to answer the questions you asked Faraday orrr is there some other mis-you-se (ZING) this page because we've all done screwed it up once now.

SpyreX · Post Post #263 (isolation #45) » Mon May 16, 2011 7:04 pm

Are you serious?

Really?

SpyreX · Post Post #270 (isolation #46) » Mon May 16, 2011 7:13 pm

I don't see Amrun's team 'being ballsy' by themselves.

Que?

----

-In your own words, why do you think I am scum?

You've been absolutely loosey goosey from "Here's a vote with a reason / I dont have stances!" down the train to "R in RVS doesn't actually mean random" taking a stop at "LOOK AT YOUR META (I'm 100% wrong)". If I need to make an essay on reasons sure but lets not dance because I'm tired.

-Who else do you think is scum, and why?

GEE I JUST DONT KNOW

Preview Edit:

REALLY? That's the question you actually wanted from me? I could have kinda seen the other side maybe but not having an idea of who I think is scum??

SpyreX · Post Post #272 (isolation #47) » Mon May 16, 2011 7:21 pm

GI, Quadz, Parana - there is at least one scum in there. Book it.

I want more out of Zito n Hoop. They're makin me a little paranoid but not slam dunks.

SpyreX · Post Post #273 (isolation #48) » Mon May 16, 2011 7:24 pm

And this is obvious but needless to say:

No one hammers until the 5 above check in. If one of them hammers and Amrun flips town they just claimed scum and we can skip D2.

SpyreX · Post Post #274 (isolation #49) » Mon May 16, 2011 7:25 pm

We should give Amrun a night to test his claim with the tracker following behind him to validate his claim. If Amrun Day 2 does not return a result/claim roleblocked and is targeted towards a night kill, he should be lynched. If Amrun does return a result, he is probably town.

The hell is this?

No, seriously.

SpyreX · Post Post #279 (isolation #50) » Mon May 16, 2011 7:28 pm

I don't see any of them[her team] as particularly ballsy players she said she picked gunsmith to be ballsy. I don't believe her reason for taking it, basically.

You know her team?

SpyreX · Post Post #353 (isolation #51) » Tue May 17, 2011 6:58 am

Prana wrote:Not entirely sure how you expect me to hammer a wagon I'm currently on. There wasn't an option to get a double voter role after all. But why is Kise free from being scum? I agree in that I don't feel he's scum, but being as you seem to be just claiming there's 1-2 scum in the top group, why is Kise given a pass?

Quadz is the obvious scum there though, and Amrun is going to flip scum anyway. GI isn't his partner, I'm not scum, and I don't feel Kise is scum, meaning we can dig the final one out of the 6s.

Because I think Kise is town *gasp*?

Prana wrote:
You mean like how Cop doesn't fall to the arse end of a list because of how good it is for town and... oh yeah. Nobody picked it in PYP 3, and I wound up with it in PYP 4 because it would have vanished again if I hadn't, and I was 14th. All it needs is number 1 thinking they'll be killed as they'll likely get a good role, and everyone beneath them thinking "Those above me will already have it".

Of course, Amrun is scum anyway, and Quadz is likely scum too, so it's all good.

You mean PYP 3 where there were 3 scum in the top 5? Or 4 with a Super Saint and an Inverter making them pick GS high as the other investigative role?

Oh wow, we have a roleclaim. Exciting stuff!

Hoop wrote:
My initial impression is that I believe it. Here is my reasoning;

If Amrun is scum, there are two options. She captured the Gunsmith role herself, or a scumbuddy above her captured the role and she is fakeclaiming that scum's role. The role-swap is a ridiculously risky move, given a Role-Cop exists, as well as if the real Gunsmith dies she's toast. Without a counterclaim, she is extremely likely a Gunsmith.

If Amrun is the top scum draft pick, it seems like an unrealistic role to burn their top pick on. Scum gain little from it other than blocking town from getting it, and it would be highly reasonable to believe the role is taken by then. Why risk it? The scum have much better options. And if Amrun has a scumbuddy above her, why didn't they take Gunsmith with a higher pick if they wanted to block town?

A much more likely explanation is that she is town. I'm pretty confident with this read. Gunsmith there makes little sense for scum.

Mostly I agree - as scum 2 I could see shooting for gunsmith to either grab it or parse down even further where it is what with that spot making partial sense for a vig and being high enough its going to avoid a GC. As #1? No.

(But wait until the end for SHOCKING REVELATIONS)

LLD wrote:GI, why would scum not want the GunSmith role?

Cause I see a few good reasons.

1)It helps scum find the vigs (and the goon cop?).

2)It looks significantly more townie that picking a Vig.

CONFIRMED ROLE DOES NOT EQUAL CONFIRMED ALIGNMENT.

If thats the goal Role Cop is a way better Risk/Reward pick IF that's the highest scum position. Don't get blinded by bloodlust.

hoop wrote:Can SpyreX, Prana and Faraday explain their town reads on Kise for me? Or if that has changed, I'd be curious to know.

Maybe its the other side of the coin but this:

So let's profile! It seems as though the scum tend to spread their draft numbers a part in past games. In my low-number group, I'd say Prana or Smash Bros for mafia - make note of Smash's second number being low as well. Of course Smash's misfortune is that he was tied with someone else, but his second number indicates he had hoped to win in his 1's group by placing a low/3. There's likely scum among the 6 group as well.... 6, 9, Zito? Why would you play moderately high numbers?

While I dont agree with 100% makes a lot more sense than some of the other thought processes from that area.

And I like that post coming in. Not that it matters as much with the nature of the beast but I'd be 100% town sure on an SSBF-scum flip.

I'm not as excited about his later posts in the agree with department but still (and he's either absolutely scum crafty or there is a town slip below of magnitudes):

Kise wrote:@Spy: I don't know about shooting top 4, man. I think the good of a possible 4 town PRs working against scum outweighs the possibility of 3/4 (maximum) scum PRs. This will probably become a night war between the top half and the bottom half, depending on where everyone's head is at. History has proven that scum tend to spread out, so yes, I'd keep my guard up for any sides. The best thing in my opinion is to assess a player's actions and compare it to their place on the draft list, not the other way around.

Only three scum brosideon.

And, you of all players, I'm not sure what you're getting at. Its not like I've got absolute blinders on - because if the goal was just murder the top 4 why in the name of everything holy would you having lordship and dominion have a pass?

GI & Quadz especially and Prana have had the same song and dance. And its not a catchy tune.

We get things like thus:

GI wrote:Sorry Hoopla, I don't take these wagons seriously regardless of alignment. Go check pretty much any game of mine - I make fun of wagons on me and mine em for reads. Amrun even said as much. So you expecting me to do something I never do just reads fucking retarded. Not scum. Not town. Retarded. Pushing my lynch on it though is scum.

http://mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.ph ... 2#p3047872

Yessir that's not seriously.

Or the new weird "I don't think Hoopla is town" / "I'm agreeing with everything Hoopla is saying." we're gettin from someone.

Hoopla wrote:
There have been a couple of things SpyreX has done that has irked me. Namely, his push on Amrun which I detailed earlier, as well as a couple of posts directed towards me which feel a little fake, especially because he knows how I play. His activity is fine, but he seems a little empty. His draft position gifts him a low base chance of being scum, but it has risen above that for me. Faraday has been hit and miss - I've agreed with several of his points, but his aggressiveness towards Amrun seems overdone; a shoddy imitation of his town game, as it were. He's hovering around neutral for his position. And of the top four, I think I trust Prana the most.

I want more from you because I need that analysis, but in conjunction. There hasn't been much fire in the directive sense. That's not good and it gets me twitchy.

GI wrote:DDD, Prana, hoopla, spyrex: you seem to have a consensus the JK would be the best scum role and their #1 pick. Is it really better than the vig?

I've never said that? Its up there, but I've never said definitively because there's some other pieces to it IN GENERAL:

GI wrote:
Okay, what roles do you two expect to be high picks for scum specifically?

N2 Vig, JK, Role Cop would be for strength. Gunsmith/Goon Cop depending on the makeup of the scum. N3 Vig is mostly a longshot and I'd really be surprised if the scum were playing the "just in case" game. Tracker would be a positional if they thought the others were taken overall.

-------

Now, here's the other side of the coin:

My compatriots have been yelling at me in unison about this Amrun business AND they had me turned around on it as of the claim. I left that vote on for the low-estimate up-end CC / hammer delicious prizes. Which didn't happen.

We're arguing the weight of number theory versus SHEER RAGE because hot damn they want a Faraday dead RIGHT NOW. Which I'm saying needs to be a GC target not lynch.

Unvote, Vote: GI

SpyreX · Post Post #356 (isolation #52) » Tue May 17, 2011 7:11 am

Ohhhhhh.

BOOO I thought that was a magnificent town slip there that could have sealed the deal.

Dude I'd be surprised for more than a few reasons if you actually died tonight.

SpyreX · Post Post #358 (isolation #53) » Tue May 17, 2011 7:19 am

Thats the biggest one afterall.

(shhh)

SpyreX · Post Post #362 (isolation #54) » Tue May 17, 2011 7:37 am

All that's saying is what's pretty much BEEN said with the additional piece of "Amrun and Hoop are town"

Which you proceed to disagree with directly above this post.

SpyreX · Post Post #364 (isolation #55) » Tue May 17, 2011 7:44 am

Sorry, with either "The top 4 are all town" OR "Amrun and Hoop are town"

Considering how balls to the wall unlikely the first is I went with the second. My bad.

SpyreX · Post Post #366 (isolation #56) » Tue May 17, 2011 8:20 am

You do not yet have a role. You must submit two numbers between 1-15 (X,Y) by PM to Zoraster by May 12th at 11:00am EDT. At this point, the draft order will be published, and you will submit the role you want to try for. The game itself will start May 15th.

SpyreX · Post Post #367 (isolation #57) » Tue May 17, 2011 8:26 am

So, with actually using whats there and what we've seen:

The only way there's no scum in the top end is IF scum picked 1,6,9. Period. Scum did not double up it just flat didn't happen.

SpyreX · Post Post #372 (isolation #58) » Tue May 17, 2011 8:53 am

And the odds of that are, based on random probabilities, around 20%. Based on the idea that people were probably thinking along similar lines, including scum, more like 30%. Nine of our Thirteen players picked 1,6,9. You say that it's fantastically unlikely that's the scum team's numbers. I say that I'm not going to rule it out.

Oh behavior, our three scummiest players are probably Quadz, SSBF, and Faraday. Faraday I agree is a job for the goon cop or the N2 Vig (my preference). I'll probably be voting one of Quadz or SSBF when I see what their next post is.

Soo, you're saying 70-80% chance of scum being in the top. And that's based off "random probabilities" with a 1-9 range instead of the actual 66% higher range there was.

And yes, its not random. Some numbers have certain outcomes. However, that certainty when put in conjunction with the fact scum ARE picking different numbers makes it even more clear. I'd be a

little

surprised if it ends up being an obvious pattern (1,2,3) but I'd be far, FAR, FARRR more surprised if it was the one pattern that makes this work (1,6,9) which would mean scum are in the group you're in and have been playing teaparty around all day.

SpyreX · Post Post #399 (isolation #59) » Tue May 17, 2011 2:39 pm

Why would you call for a Vig on Faraday versus GC or lynch on you being town?

Thoughts on Hoop I've given more than once.

SpyreX · Post Post #401 (isolation #60) » Tue May 17, 2011 2:42 pm

Goon Cop.

Like I suggested for you tonight on the behest of my compatriots.

SpyreX · Post Post #407 (isolation #61) » Tue May 17, 2011 2:50 pm

"out the goon cop"?

Thats exactly what they're supposed to do? Exactly it. No teehee, no "ohh gosh wait for more things". Find a scum get them lynched, profit.

SpyreX · Post Post #412 (isolation #62) » Tue May 17, 2011 2:56 pm

I, SpyreX, am not convinced by any measure Faraday is scum.

My compatriots disagree by a wide margin - hence I could see a GC there.

As for the why bus? Who knows? There's still far, far too many variables for that.

SpyreX · Post Post #418 (isolation #63) » Tue May 17, 2011 3:01 pm

I'm down but I HAVE TO APPEASE THE MONSTERS I LIVE WITH.

Lets just say if no GC comes out with a guilty on YOU FARADAY TOMORROW OHH LOOK AT ME DIRECTING PRS I'm assuming you're innocent.

SpyreX · Post Post #421 (isolation #64) » Tue May 17, 2011 3:05 pm

Hey I'll call you many things this game but we both know lazy still is a word that could be thrown in there.

I just happen to have a vibe from the words you've been saying.

SpyreX · Post Post #428 (isolation #65) » Tue May 17, 2011 3:18 pm

Listen to Fate. He's right, you're wrong, end of story.

As for faradays role fishing, he can blow me if he wants a claim. It's pyp.

Welp, then lets get this hammer done. On that off chance your town I'd love to see your QT at the end of this for that amazing maneuver.

SpyreX · Post Post #433 (isolation #66) » Tue May 17, 2011 3:22 pm

There's stuff going on aside from the numbers.

I WANT REAL ZITO OR I'LL MAKE IT A STAR CONTROL 3 GAME I SWEAR TO GOD.

At least give me some posts on the usual suspects today.

SpyreX · Post Post #438 (isolation #67) » Tue May 17, 2011 3:34 pm

Ohh back to that claims don't matter business:

Why'd you unvote Amun-ra then?

SpyreX · Post Post #440 (isolation #68) » Tue May 17, 2011 3:45 pm

Thats not what you said at all.

You said claims don't matter because this is pyp - i.e. claims aren't a function of alignment.

So, once again: Why'd you unvote Amun-ra?

SpyreX · Post Post #442 (isolation #69) » Tue May 17, 2011 3:47 pm

While I approve I want more or I see Hegemonic Crux in the futureeeeee

SpyreX · Post Post #445 (isolation #70) » Tue May 17, 2011 3:52 pm

The claims always matter. Always. Every game.

They don't always change things but going "I'm taking my ball and going home" is tech and I'd lynch for it every time.

And considering I've been the one pushing this yes. Yes I do.

And with a VC on this page I dont even know what to tell you.

SpyreX · Post Post #449 (isolation #71) » Tue May 17, 2011 3:54 pm

Faraday, Quadz.

Just some general thoughts I want to squeeze the juice maaan.

I mean you claimed RL scum for liking lolpuppets but thats ok

SpyreX · Post Post #450 (isolation #72) » Tue May 17, 2011 3:55 pm

And now the claim woodoggy.

SpyreX · Post Post #458 (isolation #73) » Thu May 19, 2011 5:58 pm

Faaa.

I'll be doing some parsing soon. It'd be really awesome if someone came out with something awesome and damning on someone.

SpyreX · Post Post #469 (isolation #74) » Fri May 20, 2011 6:28 am

Spoiler: vote counts

A little more in depth VC's from D1. Some serious business tidbits at various points:

GreyICE ( 4 ) Papa Zito, SpyreX, Faraday Amrun,
Amrun ( 4 ) Lady LambdaDelta, SpyreX, Faraday Slaxx,
Lady LambdaDelta ( 3 ) quadz08, Super Smash Bros. Fan, Amrun, (L - 4 )
*** Amrun ( 6 ) *** Lady LambdaDelta, Faraday, Kise, PranaDevil, GreyICE, Debonair Danny DiPietro, (L - 1 )
*** GreyICE ( 7 ) *** Hoopla, SpyreX, Amrun, Faraday, Lady LambdaDelta, Papa Zito, Debonair Danny DiPietro, (L - 1 )

The first two, now confirmed town wagons, I'd be shocked and awed if there wasn't A scum that parked due to them having legitimate bite. This gets even awesomer when a.) I'm town and b.) I'm pretty sure LLD is town.

PZ/Faraday
Faraday/Slaxx

Now, them all being 6's is a little freakshow BUT (and my compatriots wanted me to reiterate their supreme desire to see Faraday lynched) there is absolutely a scum there: and I could easily see it being faraday.

Now, the LLD wagon at 3 isn't SLAM DUNK but the nature of how goofy that wagon is: SSBF, quadz. Both MAYBE but doubtful.

With the two fat wagons we've got duplicates in: LLD, Faraday, DDP. Again, LLD is town so Faraday/DDP.
In the Remainder: Kise, Prana, Hoopla, SpyreX, Papa Zito. Again, a scum here makes sense (although not as clear as some of the others). I'm still good vibrations on Kise so Prana/Hoopla/Zito.

So, breakdowns:
PZ/Faraday
Faraday/Slaxx
SSBF/quadz
Faraday/DDP
Prana/Hoopla/Zito

A faraday scum all but clears the 6's and makes me feel a lot better about DDP (which, in turn, makes me feel a bit worse about SSBF which, in turn, makes me feel a bit better about Quadz). Also, with Zito town via faraday scum we're looking at a Prana/Hoopla.

And, one of those two had one whole vote yesterday.

Of COURSE, I was really hoping/preferring for a GC to come out on Faraday and make this easy. Which leads me to my next point:

With GS and JK dead, I'm SERIOUSLY weighing out the pro's/cons of a down-the-line claimfest today in rapid succession. The GS dropping like it did I still say vehemently points at funny business in the top set - and, with the only available business being a scum-swap to try and hide it it could negate a scum-rb AND give direction to the N2 vig (if the N3 vig IS scum AND we mislynch/no vig/misvig we're in a poop sandwich).

Unvote, Vote: Faraday

SpyreX · Post Post #472 (isolation #75) » Fri May 20, 2011 8:17 am

I didn't say LLD was confirmed town. You'll also notice I left myself out of there OHH SNAP.

That doesn't change LLD being town or me being town.

ITS JUST OPINIONS.

Yep. Ohh noooess.

And a GS getting a positive in the lower eschelons is GSM.

SpyreX · Post Post #475 (isolation #76) » Fri May 20, 2011 8:24 am

The "fact" mantra is also pretty swank.

What with me obviously saying in big bold letters those are facts and all.

ANYWHO, don't get sidetracked I want opinions about the claiming.

SpyreX · Post Post #479 (isolation #77) » Fri May 20, 2011 8:34 am

Now I could be missing something obvious but lets bounce this back and forth:

Pros:
- All claims are locked.
- Lying is a VERY risky business.
--- This means shenanigans (Kise picking Rolecop or something filled with moonbeams) is a KOS.
- Scum-possession of high PRs are watched (Vigs) neutered (RB's) because of said lying.

Cons:
- It gives scum a handy dandy kill chart.
-- This, however, is pretty much already there between either a.) having the roles they want or b.) not getting them and parsing above.

Let me know if I'm missing something.

P-Edit: Show me using the word "fact" anywhere in that post. Go ahead.

SpyreX · Post Post #481 (isolation #78) » Fri May 20, 2011 8:45 am

You mean the dead JKer?

None of that outside of the spoilers (unless you're using the fact people WERE on the wagons and I didn't make that up in a drunken stupor) is "fact".

"Fact" doesn't happen. "Fact" doesn't get you anywhere.

So, looking at THAT analysis and going "Ohhhhh he's painting it as facts" makes no sense ever in a mafia game.

SpyreX · Post Post #483 (isolation #79) » Fri May 20, 2011 8:48 am

Kise you are now officially an enigma.

But, we'll talk more.

SpyreX · Post Post #486 (isolation #80) » Fri May 20, 2011 8:56 am

I'll be back later although this exchange has been... interesting.

And again we must be using Facts differently but that there last paragraph sure looks like its full of analysis and well-constructed opinions versus true facts. Because those are very few and far between.

SpyreX · Post Post #525 (isolation #81) » Fri May 20, 2011 7:12 pm

My only worry about massclaim is if scum have the N2 vig or the Roleblocker - we stand to lose out in the long run if that is the case, because giving scum the keys to the game with those two powers out there that can completely shut the down the town power. Locking claims in is good though - it keeps the vigs honest. Thoughts on voting for the vig's shot, so scum have to play it straight? Or we assess its alignment based on its shot?

Vigs on a leash, RB's on a quasi-leash.

Problem solved.

I mean Kise who beats his head against this wall STILL keeps going "Well, don't claim BUT (all this would be done in claiming).

I'm tired and I'm being berated by my compatriots for thinking top-down was a good idea. Someone educate me on the bottom-up / top-down?

SpyreX · Post Post #527 (isolation #82) » Fri May 20, 2011 7:21 pm

I'm looking at it this way.

Lets say I claim N2 Vig.

You claim roleblocker.

We say clearly, DO NOT ROLEBLOCK ME.

I get roleblocked. You are now up the creek and scum (even if not the RB).

SpyreX · Post Post #528 (isolation #83) » Fri May 20, 2011 7:21 pm

Anywho bedtime.

SpyreX · Post Post #551 (isolation #84) » Sat May 21, 2011 5:24 am

Look at it this way - if we went ahead with a bottom-up massclaim and nobody claimed roleblocker, we're screwed. Scum doesn't have to claim the RB, and we've just given them complete information. And if it's in the hands of anyone halfway competent who's not in the limelight today, you've lost tonight's actions (and a town PR), and possibly more the next night.

That's why I was saying top-down. NOW, it could be bad if no one claims RB but if ohh, SSBF claims VT-RB then we've got a party underway.

I'm going to be awol some today but I'm almost positive prana has pulled a 180 from d1 to today in regards to number theory / et all. Which I dnt like.

SpyreX · Post Post #579 (isolation #85) » Sat May 21, 2011 8:43 am

I'm gonna be very sporadic until tomorrow but:

If we see more than one claim today (which is what some are espousing) with whats going on and the simple fact of the minority knowledge I absolutely don't see the hesistation for a full claim.

Prana wrote:Top down claims are pointless, scum can simply say "I went for X that's already been announced, and got VT", the only people who could detect scum there would be the Goon Cop and the Tracker.

We've got two dead PR's to hide fake claims behind already. Saying top down is pointless when the goal of it is either a.) lockdown or b.) catch a liar under the "I'm a VT that went for X and no one above me has claimed X" makes far more sense then doing bottom up ESPECIALLY if you're espousing now scum being in the top (because, of course, who do you want to go first in a claimfest?).

I'm not PLANNING on lynching scum due to raw stupidity. I'm planning on having all the pieces and doing the analysis right. I'm still not seeing a reason for this bottom up at all.

And I'll give my 180 reasons when I've got a few minutes later tonight/early tomorrow but unless I flat lost my mind there's something truly fishy with the difference in number theory D1 to now.

SpyreX · Post Post #589 (isolation #86) » Sat May 21, 2011 8:23 pm

Prana my bad. I'm not sure what I THOUGHT I remembered from D1 but I sure don't see it now.

Which is good.

Also (and I may have said it earlier I'm reaaaly tired): N2 & N3 vigs being scum would be REALLY bad. Another reason I want to assess that heavily.

SpyreX · Post Post #629 (isolation #87) » Sun May 22, 2011 8:08 am

Huh, I'd have never thought 3-shot as P1 BUT I think that IS one of the best case scenarios assuming I'm not totally retarded and Kise is actually scum.

THAT said,

@Kise et all.

Bottom-up MC makes sense with no PR's dead. At this point the reason why I've been saying top down is pretty direct: the top end scum (the one(s) with a PR) are forced to claim directly without knowing if they have backup from the bottom. As it sits, assuming they got at least A PR a bottom end scum has 4 claims to hide behind. So unless they're pants on head they aren't getting caught.

HOWEVER, lets say Prana is a RoleCop for example (something that would be TOTALLY bizarro for town at P2). Top-down means he's either claiming it or risking ohh... Hoopla from saying she went VT-RC which means there's a liar straight above (or Hoop). Now, the chances of even THIS happening are small but they are larger than 0.

Again, unless I'm missing some super high value reason for going bottom-up I'm absolutely in favor of the other.

SpyreX · Post Post #631 (isolation #88) » Sun May 22, 2011 8:15 am

There DONE god lets move through the slog now to the good stuff.

SpyreX · Post Post #633 (isolation #89) » Sun May 22, 2011 9:03 am

GOD I forgot about that.

Yes, god in heaven, don't claim targets until we're done.

SpyreX · Post Post #635 (isolation #90) » Sun May 22, 2011 9:40 am

(I thought you were the N2 Vig)

So we're all awesome.

SpyreX · Post Post #649 (isolation #91) » Sun May 22, 2011 4:30 pm

VT - Goon Cop

This is parsing out REALLY strange.

SpyreX · Post Post #652 (isolation #92) » Sun May 22, 2011 6:19 pm

(Assuming they aren't on drugs, there is not a "likely" pm distribution as each game would be independent of the others)
(They aren't on drugs)
LLD needs to get in here so we can finish this up.

SpyreX · Post Post #654 (isolation #93) » Sun May 22, 2011 6:23 pm

Use this time to catch up.

Go in order the end is in sight.

SpyreX · Post Post #658 (isolation #94) » Mon May 23, 2011 8:20 am

You picked?

SpyreX · Post Post #662 (isolation #95) » Mon May 23, 2011 1:14 pm

Sod reading, just claim at the moment.

SpyreX · Post Post #667 (isolation #96) » Mon May 23, 2011 1:48 pm

Slaxxxx your impatience ffaaa

My notes have that at everyone but faraday.

SpyreX · Post Post #669 (isolation #97) » Mon May 23, 2011 1:52 pm

Where?

And VT to what?

Youuuuuu

SpyreX · Post Post #672 (isolation #98) » Mon May 23, 2011 2:01 pm

Ohh Kise I've got the brewings of an idea.

Although I'm curious what you've got up your sleeves.

(and yes I'm almost thinking not one but TWO nillas are lying OOUUU)

SpyreX · Post Post #674 (isolation #99) » Mon May 23, 2011 2:11 pm

1. Kise ( 2 , 2 ) 3-Shot RB
2. PranaDevil ( 3 , 1 ) Tracker
3. GreyICE ( 7 , 1 ) JK
4. quadz08 ( 8 , 13 ) VT-Tracker
5. Hoopla ( 9 , 1 ) Goon Cop
6. Amrun ( 9 , 3 ) Gunsmith
7. Super Smash Bros. Fan ( 1 , 3 ) VT - Tracker
8. Debonair Danny DiPietro ( 1 , 1 ) VT - Gunsmith
9. SpyreX ( 1 , 1 ) VT - Goon Cop
10. Lady LambdaDelta ( 6 , 2 ) VT -Tracker
11. Papa Zito ( 6 , 9 ) 2NV
12. Faraday ( 6 , 1 ) VT - BLUEBERRIES
13. Slaxx ( 6 , 1 ) 3NV

-----

So, now lets play the results game and see if anything cool shakes out.

I'm still absolutely confident on Kise town. I'm leaning towards Prana town a lot more after today AND I've been yelled at pretty consistently about quadz town from a million sources (while I still dont like it).

Initial thoughts:
1.Kise blows all his shots tonight within a pool.
2.)PZ shoots one of (Faraday / SSBF)
2a.)The other gets lynched.
3.)Tracker tracks someone NOT being shot and NOT being blocked (this, at this point, is a pretty narrow pool).
4.)Hoopla checks quadz.

SpyreX · Post Post #677 (isolation #100) » Mon May 23, 2011 2:32 pm

Not by any means (he's a fine block target in the blockin' pool). Just a -bit- more confident (and yelling) about faraday un SSBF (and SSBF makes DDD unlikely).

In that beautiful world where they were scum together it'd be pretty much a massacre.

SpyreX · Post Post #681 (isolation #101) » Mon May 23, 2011 3:56 pm

When SSBF flips scum you better have a back-up vig plan or I swear I'll be very angry.

ACTUALLY, I could see swapping you two (DDD/SSBF) if SSBF flips town. Maybe.

Its not ignoring Prana - its pretty obvious he's the tracker so lets kill some bits and give some breathin room. Both the vigs going that low (and Slaxx who is pretty town) is a help quite a bit.

SpyreX · Post Post #694 (isolation #102) » Mon May 23, 2011 4:39 pm

How about you spend less time calling me stupid and more time claiming your results which may actually have a bearing on things.

Speaking of stupid:

1) Stupid. How big is this pool? Having a locked pool means if one scum is out of it, they know their kill will succeed, and even have the option of no-killing for the wifoms.
2) Stupid, as I said in my last post. You're conveniently ignoring numbers, despite being a vocal advocate of them once upon a time.
2a) Stupid, as this doesn't account for what the lynchee flips.
3) Fair enough, if we were to go down to path of crafting actions exactly.
4) I should check a VT obviously, but quadz should be one of the deaths.

1.) Ohh the wifoms! As for the pool that should be readily apparent: not the PR's.
2.) Yes I am ignoring numbers - if by that you mean not killing from the top. Since its not an accident there's a 1 and a 6 there (also not an accident I could see swapping for DDD if SSBF was town). Additionally, this versus going quadz at the moment if it gives us a scum in either set gives a much better position into the days coming.
2a.) Maybe because I could see them being scum together? SSBF is an absolute non entity and I've been yelled at enough in the QT that I'm fine with faraday taking the rope. Quadz is getting OMG META DEFENSE and I'm not fighting that fight today.
3.) Thats pretty much what I'm doing.
4.) Go for it and check whoever you want yeehaw.

If SSBF isn't scum, SpyreX almost certainly is.

Go for it. If one of SSBF/Faraday isn't scum we can dance.

P-Edit: Thanks for all the stupids. Thats really cool and awesome.

SpyreX · Post Post #696 (isolation #103) » Mon May 23, 2011 4:47 pm

I did take offense. I do take offense.

Especially since you've been firmly in the ivory tower and popped your head out to go "STUPID STUPID" and yet, alas, nay an actual plan. Leave that to the plebs I guess.

Guess I must have been stupid yesterday too when I all but screamed for the GC to check Faraday because that was the one that would have been real nice to have.

SpyreX · Post Post #698 (isolation #104) » Mon May 23, 2011 4:53 pm

THEN CALL ME SCUM AND VOTE ME. Stop teeheeing around it.

I'm really not in the mood for this.

Kise is town. Prana read way more genuine today. Quadz, again, his "toobad4scum" meta aside had a pretty huge townslip earlier.

You, the proposed goon cop, could be useful if town and if not you'll go soon.

So *gasp* Who does that leave? SSBF. An absolute non-entity. Who's claimed a triple up.
And with a pair of vigs (and Slaxx being pretty town) and LLD being town? Ohhh SNAP WHO DAT BE IN THE SIXES.

SpyreX · Post Post #701 (isolation #105) » Mon May 23, 2011 5:00 pm

If by the rest you mean "the last that isn't Faraday and SSBF?"

You/quadz/Prana.

Which, gosh, would be pretty easy to make all of that happen if these go through and I'm even half right.

SpyreX · Post Post #705 (isolation #106) » Mon May 23, 2011 5:07 pm

I said if SSBF flips town then swapping to DDD isn't bad.

I'd probably still shoot Faraday if it were me.

(OHH GOSH LOOK AT SPYREX MAKING HIMSELF THE ONLY ONE LEFT)

And if I'm stupid you're being awesomely pedantic "Ohh you said shoot SSBF and Faraday but what does that MEAN as far as scum".

No vig LL TIA.

SpyreX · Post Post #730 (isolation #107) » Tue May 24, 2011 9:23 am

We need to start chipping away at the 1's and 6's at some point - my preference is for the 1's, considering we have two scummy players in SSBF and SpyreX sitting there. We also know, that only one of them can be scum. I think the appropriate course of action is to lynch one of SSFB/SpyreX (assuming others agree with Spy being scum if SSBF isn't), and if we lynch scum it clears the other and we vig quadz. If we lynch town, we vig the other 1 we didn't lynch. I think this will guarantee us at least one scum, with the possibility of two scum.

So, the main differences between this and my "stupid" plan:

Vigging me instead of DDD is SSBF is town.
Vigging quadz instead of Faraday if SSBF is scum.
You checking a "random' instead of quadz because he's vigbait.
YEEHAW.

----

Prana has absolutely lost his mind.

----

Here's the current state of affairs:

Pretty confidently town (i.e. I would actively be shocked and awed if scum live here):
Slaxx
LLD
Kise
Zito (this one after claims I'm the least sure about but still confident I now would like him to be active).

Fairly confident (in order):
Quadz
Prana

At LEAST two scum be here:
Faraday
DDD/SSBF (not both)
Hoopla

See that bottom list? If you chuckleheads vig me after my awesome flip I WANT SOMEONE to remember that and make them go away. If that loses the game then blame me.

It's not going to.

SpyreX · Post Post #734 (isolation #108) » Tue May 24, 2011 9:43 am

I'll gladly explain good sir.

Slaxx, at 13, if he is scum would have every reason to claim VT. N3 Vig puts a bullseye on his back and it is a great place to hide (further, if he was scum and NOT scum with the GC a VT claim there looks really nice and shiny). Additionally, since he couldn't keep it in his pants and said he was a PR early, he in essence took a HUGE gamble as scum that all the roles weren't claimed before him. At the spot he did, makes no sense.

Quadz, the "he's too bad at scum thus wouldn't get the scum PM" business aside, is in my probably town list for: http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 0#p3064390

Short of his team going "Hey I know make a long post with all your logic being based on 2 scum instead of 3 scum BUT MAKE IT OOZE BAD TOWN LOGIC" I absolutely can't see this as some kind of Kiser Soze move.

Prana I go back and forth on. It is more a gut read from today versus yesterday than anything else. If it were lylo and he was left (and the bottom DEAD) I probably put a hammer there.

SpyreX · Tue May 24, 2011 10:16 am

Spyrex, didn't you earlier say that you felt that there was at least one scum in the top 4? What's changed that? Surely at least one scum lives in the Kise/Prana/Quadz grouping? I trust Hoopla as town over Kise, and I'm thinking Kise is likely town too.

I don't trust SSBF as scum because it doesn't work in any direction outside of Zito-scum, and I don't believe scum would go for the vigs so low down.

Simple function of reads. If there's one there it'd be you and that has me hesitant.

However, I apparently am blind I would like this SSBF-town case you've got laid out in a nice clear fashion.

Hoopla wise, even if I wasn't getting a town vibe from her, I would view her as town for getting Goon Cop. No way would scum be attempting to get that role there. It's a role they go for to prevent town getting it, and if all those above her are town (which you believe apparently Spyrex) then scum would surely believe town had already claimed it for themselves. Town however would go for it at that point in an effort to claim it for use.

I'm actually second guessing myself on Quadz, his team already had one scum, and while it's possible they got two scum, he said about there being just 2 scum... of course then he ges and does the whole "Hoopla is the only high number alive that isn't me, who is town" stuff... which just reads like "I know Hoopla has picked a high first number and she's town". Which means... Quadz-scum.

I think I know the answer to this "quadz slip" but I'm not saying anything until he checks in.

As for Hoopla and GC.

Lets assume I'm right and its Hoop, SSBF, Faraday.

GC protects Faraday for sure (which, if Faraday were caught out of the gate, would leave 3 confirmed town AND those town would 'probably' be VT's which is the worst case scenario for NK's). Also, SSBF in that spot isn't by any means a guaranteed shot at not ending up VT. So, GC has the potential to protect him as well.

Additionally, 5 is just low enough that those delicious prizes (Vigs / JK) have a decent shot of being gone (even if it didn't work out that way) so a GC shot even on a miss cuts your targets to 4 - and 4 you're gonna want dead anyhow.

SpyreX · Tue May 24, 2011 10:41 am

So this is all predicated on "Scum wouldn't bus." with a side of "Hoopla is town."

I counter with: 7 posts and a vote for LLD.

You're damn right that's for bussing.

SpyreX · Tue May 24, 2011 10:43 am

AND I double counter with: Tue May 24, 2011 1:27 pm

Thats when he was last on site. Before then was Monday. Before then was Sunday.

SpyreX · Tue May 24, 2011 10:51 am

Yea and heavy bussing in a three person time MIGHT JUST IN FACT lead to two alive.

Or the simple fact that winning requires actually winning.

LLD is 3000% town. There is no question about that. Further, on top of the play here there is SECRET REASONS that if you actually care about it instead of pushing up the wrongest river your team should be more than happy to help you figure out.

And if you're going to take the stance of 'I dont care that he is actually on site, showed up to claim in 2 hours when it was his turn WHICH MEANS HE IS UP TO SPEED ON THE GAME FFS AND IS CHOOSING TO LURK AND /FEELINGS" then we're pretty much done on this point.

SpyreX · Tue May 24, 2011 10:54 am

I will be. Dont you doubt that none.

I'm just making sure there's no surprises come tomorrow.

ALSO A GENERAL APB: I want to bank more time today so this whole waiting for surprises NEEDS to happen soon.

SpyreX · Tue May 24, 2011 10:56 am

Yes sir.

SpyreX · Tue May 24, 2011 11:04 am

Wrong. It can't be talked about here but there is a difference and if you can't see it I can't help you.

Of the parts of that post to reply to this was by far the least important.

SpyreX · Tue May 24, 2011 11:09 am

Shhh no more redacted lets not screw this up.

I pretty much just want the vigs to show up say they agree to not do anything ridiculous and get this party started.

SpyreX · Tue May 24, 2011 11:23 am

I thought there was more than that.

Unvote, vote: SSBF

SpyreX · Post Post #767 (isolation #118) » Tue May 24, 2011 2:30 pm

Kise's pool: VT's that aren't being killed (and I would most vehemently say not LLD but whatever).
Prana's pool: PR's
Anything not in this pool: 0

If PR's are alive tomorrow: Hoopla, Prana, Kise claim in that order.

And again I am positive about LLD's alignment. Positive. 100% factual.

SpyreX · Post Post #781 (isolation #119) » Tue May 24, 2011 2:42 pm

As far as I'm concerned I wouldn't put him in any pool. That's just me. If he needs to go in a pool PR pool being smaller makes more sense to stuff him there.

Why can't he be N3 vig + scum? Seems advantage is more to not lie and thus not have to worry about fakeclaim shenanigans.

His active lurking is super hardcore and I just don't grok a townread there.

He -could- be but even then why go I AM A PR woooo. Just claim VT on ohh any role already claimed.

Zito if you want to be a hero:

SSBF-scum shoot Faraday.
SSBF-town shoot DDD.

Ultimately its gonna be pretty much a pot of (SpyreX / DDD / Quadz / Faraday) tonight. Just bounce WITHIN 1's if SSBF is town (he's not) and outside of it if he's scum (see Faraday).

----

LLD its hoop. Who is more and more looking like scum but I'd rather not fight that fight today.

SpyreX · Post Post #789 (isolation #120) » Tue May 24, 2011 2:46 pm

The more this day goes the more I'm convinced I'm right and its moot but YES Zito YES.

LLD you see what I'm up to right?

SSBF - Faraday I HAVE THAT FEELING ALL OVER ME is two dead scum and party hats all around tomorrow.

SpyreX · Post Post #792 (isolation #121) » Tue May 24, 2011 2:47 pm

Quadz.

You know how I'm defending you on real grounds and not moonbeams?

You know how you think I'm town.

LLD is town. FULL STOP. I am giving you my guarantee.

SpyreX · Post Post #801 (isolation #122) » Tue May 24, 2011 2:55 pm

Who is saying "do whatever you want".

WHO has said that?

SpyreX · Post Post #809 (isolation #123) » Tue May 24, 2011 2:58 pm

If it comes to that I will LLD.

I think we're arguing over which delicious apple is more delicious at this point AND, on the chance Hoop IS town, another result isn't a bad thing.

I'm just saying SSBF-scum flip is good. SSBF AND Faraday both being scum and dying in this cycle IS, absolutely 100% a town win.

I AM GAMBLING FOR GLORY

SpyreX · Post Post #817 (isolation #124) » Tue May 24, 2011 3:05 pm

TBF there IS something to be said about some of the numbers hunting (especially the double up part but I digress).

Zito we can have a discourse about Slaxx later. He's not the play today and I really doubt he's the play at all.

LLD the more I think about it the more I'm betting its a Faraday - SSBF - Hoop team. BUT of all of them SSBF is the one I'd like to see go to the blood god FIRST. For a few reasons.

SpyreX · Post Post #822 (isolation #125) » Tue May 24, 2011 3:09 pm

LLD you're breakin my heart because I know your town. Who's the third then DDD/Prana?

SpyreX · Post Post #840 (isolation #126) » Tue May 24, 2011 3:45 pm

On a scale of 1-10 your thoughts on the Hoopla/Faraday/SSBF team

SpyreX · Post Post #843 (isolation #127) » Tue May 24, 2011 3:49 pm

Independently or as part of the chain? How tinfoil would you like me to go with this?

SpyreX · Post Post #857 (isolation #128) » Tue May 24, 2011 4:17 pm

Paranoia or built on a theory that can't be tested yet.

SSBF is dead walking. This is a given and its readily apparent he's going the way of the dodo really soon. So, coming out guns a blazing SSBF style for cred makes sense on a town side.

Now, if you think Hoop is scum my arguments about the GC being a grab there (two scum below with one high and one med chances of VT) makes sense. Early game Hoop's mentions of SSBF are always in the classic three (and not just our group of 1's): SpyreX, SSBF and DDD / SSBF, Zito and myself / quadz, SSBF and Prana. Then, the flipside is that early D2 VC posts clears Faraday, DDD and LLD for being on both wagons (ignoring, of course, the fact I'd voted for both and was readily available to bounce if need be) and comes out saying DDD is town and its PROBABLY SSBF and maybe me in the 1's as scum.

This stance on SSBF chances to a good second over quadz. To me easily being scum and SSBF being a play for tomorrow. To back to it being a SSBF/SpyreX lynch dichotomy with the shot going on quadz if one of us turns up scum.

And then, for all the stupid talk about me she jumps on the very obvious (and I would have powerbombed quadz if it wasn't what he said) "Me, who is town" referring to him and not hoopla. Who said this of course? Prana, who was in the initial top 3 of scum.

Also, and maybe this is just more me paranoia:

Total number of actual votes placed anywhere this game by SSBF and Hoopla together? 4.

Four.

So, if you see Hoop - Faraday and I see positionally and reactionary Hoop - SSBF and Faraday - SSBF makes sense for the bus LETS JUST LOVE EACH OTHER

SpyreX · Post Post #859 (isolation #129) » Tue May 24, 2011 4:23 pm

And again: Tue May 24, 2011 4:39 pm

I just want to keep this clear.

He's not vanished from the face of the earth. He's in ONE game and he's been on site and not posting.

----

OHH SNAP

Guess I'll just keep the other ones then.

SpyreX · Post Post #860 (isolation #130) » Tue May 24, 2011 4:24 pm

And finally:

Hoop jumps in to call me stupid when I say SSBF and Faraday take the bullet.

This is because IF I'm right there is no recourse there. That is a town win. That's not something you can sideline because a cleared group of 1's and 6's is a majority.

SpyreX · Post Post #865 (isolation #131) » Tue May 24, 2011 4:30 pm

I've only done that twice in the last few pages so I'm cool.

Although I'm willing to throw down the true gauntlet if it comes to it and say on an SSBF town flip shoot me in the face. The only real loss that way is gonna be Kise-scum. That hands you DDD-scum if I'm wrong.

The final caveat to this, of course, is Slaxx puts a bullet through hooplas skull N3.

SpyreX · Post Post #868 (isolation #132) » Tue May 24, 2011 4:39 pm

Yea Kise unvoted dragginnnggg this out.

God in heaven I'm being yelled at AGAIN in QT LAND.

SpyreX · Post Post #872 (isolation #133) » Tue May 24, 2011 4:43 pm

Slaxx I swear to everything holy I will invent Slaxx-hunting hounds with wings to track you to the very edge of hell itself if you vig LLD.

SpyreX · Post Post #874 (isolation #134) » Tue May 24, 2011 4:52 pm

Zito I've got a huge question for you:

Why were you absolutely awol D1?

SpyreX · Post Post #876 (isolation #135) » Tue May 24, 2011 5:00 pm

Good lord.

My condolences.

SpyreX · Post Post #877 (isolation #136) » Tue May 24, 2011 5:03 pm

Alright.

Change in plans.

Screw SSBF for today - my compatriots have convinced me that banking this much on a lurker is moonbeams EVEN IF I KNOW I AM RIGHT.

Hoop and I. 1 for 1.

Hoop flips town shoot me in the face.
Hoop flips scum shoot faraday in the face twice.

Everyone else can do whatever they want.

Unvote, Vote: Hoop

SpyreX · Post Post #879 (isolation #137) » Tue May 24, 2011 5:07 pm

Give your words man your words.

Or a vote

SOMETHING

SpyreX · Post Post #882 (isolation #138) » Tue May 24, 2011 5:18 pm

1 for 1 RIGHT now is a bail out?

How does that even pretend to work?

SpyreX · Post Post #898 (isolation #139) » Tue May 24, 2011 6:03 pm

What no 1 for 1 anymore?

I'm not KILLER SCUMS?

SpyreX · Post Post #901 (isolation #140) » Tue May 24, 2011 6:15 pm

Thats a whole lot of words that aren't saying much.

You've been going on about SpyreX/quadz/Faraday
You're REALLY been going on about me being scum.

Now, when the cards are down you want...SSBF shot?

SpyreX · Post Post #904 (isolation #141) » Tue May 24, 2011 6:24 pm

If you're town and I'm dead then its gonna be an uphill road and I'd be absolutely fine with SSBF lynch / faraday shot JUST LIKE TODAY tomorrow.

There's my safeguard.

Guess thats just what us sillies do.

SpyreX · Post Post #922 (isolation #142) » Wed May 25, 2011 6:29 am

I'll be home tonight for more words but if I go down swinging to paraphrase my esteemed compatriots its way better to bite the bullet for the head of the snake then a lurker who could be retarded town.

However, considering: Wed May 25, 2011 7:47 am

I'm not going to cry tears if it goes down that way.

This doesn't change the fact that, and I guarantee you this, we're doing this dance again tomorrow upon my living. And, if I'm dead, well then thats just as easy since it better damn well happen even if I dont have to strangle you to get there.

SpyreX · Post Post #977 (isolation #143) » Wed May 25, 2011 7:09 pm

Ok catching up on the pages I've missed and even in a casual glance and reading Reg's wall of doom (which I think the heart if not the results are in the right place I'm going to say this again in even more clear and concise terms:

LLD is confirmed town as far as I'm concerned.

There's no "cred" to be lost. Hell, she could claim scum and I would not lynch there. It is not happening when I'm alive and if I'm dead you better go "Ohh gee golly SpyreX is town and he was that adamant there just might be something to it!?!?!"

So that stops. Now. Period.

Onto real business:

This Prana-LLD business also is grating. LLD, numbers DO matter however, they are not the end all and be all. Prana the "PYP cred" card matters not even the whit of a whit (technically this is my first PYP game *gasp*).

Zito Prana's plan is fine if thats how this shakes out. Thats fine don't lose hope.

RegFan reads, like I said above, as heart in the right place even if not all the results are right.

And this:

"I'm a VT. I haven't gotten my PMs yet, so I can hopefull expand in greater detail when I get it."

Color me columbo but good sir with no PM's you sure as hell couldn't have said these words. One shot and then death.

SpyreX · Post Post #979 (isolation #144) » Wed May 25, 2011 7:16 pm

Kise to check in, my compatriots to stop yelling at me and hammer this PRETTY CLEAR slipup.

SpyreX · Post Post #988 (isolation #145) » Wed May 25, 2011 7:57 pm

OHHH YOUR QT IS RAGING AT US?

So they've been paying attention and yet, somehow, the fact you claimed tracker never was brought up ever ever?

SpyreX · Post Post #989 (isolation #146) » Wed May 25, 2011 7:58 pm

Sigh. The frustrating bit is I disagree with you but upon replacing in the one thing that Parama made me promise to do was to sheep your reads however wrong I may believe it is.

You can tell Panama from me he's good, brave and clever.

SpyreX · Thu May 26, 2011 7:21 am

I wouldn't declare him scummy per se, but a couple of key tells were when he was arguing with me - he rarely considered the possibility of me being town when crafting a plan.

Sooo, just so we're clear:

I'm more likely to be scum because I didn't consider you town (which, if I were scum and not bussing I would know) when crafting a plan - where, in fact, the first iteration (the stupid one) had nothing to do with you because I wanted an extra result.