Lady Lambdadelta wrote:Also, it's not so much a town read as it is a "There's no way this person is scum with the other suspects I have" read.
I will not say that Quadz has been a protown force. He's not. But I have much stronger scum reads, and these scum reads don't mix with Quadz!scum.
Does that make sense? I'm trying to explain this as clearly as possible, but if you're still confused I'll try again.
- If SSBF is scum, who are his likely buddies, or where would they be in the draft?
- If SSBF is town - what does this say about SpyreX and DDD to you?
- If Prana is town, who would you be suspicious of?
If SSBF is scum, I like Prana and Papa Zito as scum buddies.
If SSBF is town, I still think SpyreX is town, but I do agree that DDD has been less than stellar this game. I'm keeping an eye on him at the moment, but he's done nothing overtly scummy.
The third question is going to remain unanswered for the moment. It does not benefit the town at this moment in time. If you push me, I'll give a more elaborate answer, but I would prefer to keep my silence for the time being. Know that I will come back at the proper time and answer this question for you.
Yes my Lord, but questions are dangerous, for they have answers.
13 heads and counting now, plurality is adaptive. If our experience might help you,
See, I'm second guessing the SSBF lynch. I could quite easily see SpyreX as scum, although DDD less so. Of Quadz/Prana/Kise, there is one scum, with an outside chance of two. As Prana mentioned, eliminating roled scum would be a hefty blow to their chances, when you consider what roles scum probably have; Vigs/RB come to mind first. At best, SSBF has a 1/3 chance of being scum, and if he is, there is an increased chance he is a goon, which our Goon Cop can possibly have a say in, which can't be said of our top three.
The rational town play is to try to hit the king-scum - the scum sitting at the top. Their role selection will say a lot about what the scum selected for their overall strategy, increasing the information we gain when we massclaim. I really don't think we should be wagoning anyone other than Prana/Quadz/Kise, with a strong preference for the first two. The risk/reward of lynching from there is just too great to ignore. Our odds of being right are good, and stopping the use of a scum PR is massive.
We could improve our accuracy based on their individual roleclaims - the likelihood that there is at least one scum in the top three could be a reason to do a top-down massclaim. But I think there are probably more beneficial methods of doing it. Maybe just Quadz/Prana claiming, and the scummiest is lynched. Maybe doing a Roleblocker-claim, and if someone does, and can be held responsible for anti-town actions, we could do a top-down massclaim, or maybe just the top three. Haven't thought about the consequences enough, but regardless, SSBF is the play for tomorrow, not today.
If we see more than one claim today (which is what some are espousing) with whats going on and the simple fact of the minority knowledge I absolutely don't see the hesistation for a full claim.
Prana wrote:Top down claims are pointless, scum can simply say "I went for X that's already been announced, and got VT", the only people who could detect scum there would be the Goon Cop and the Tracker.
We've got two dead PR's to hide fake claims behind already. Saying top down is pointless when the goal of it is either a.) lockdown or b.) catch a liar under the "I'm a VT that went for X and no one above me has claimed X" makes far more sense then doing bottom up ESPECIALLY if you're espousing now scum being in the top (because, of course, who do you want to go first in a claimfest?).
I'm not PLANNING on lynching scum due to raw stupidity. I'm planning on having all the pieces and doing the analysis right. I'm still not seeing a reason for this bottom up at all.
And I'll give my 180 reasons when I've got a few minutes later tonight/early tomorrow but unless I flat lost my mind there's something truly fishy with the difference in number theory D1 to now.
Hoopla, unless we do mass claim, I'm not claiming. It gives away information with no reason.
Spyrex, fair enough with your reasoning for the top down claim, I see what you're getting at, and yeah, I'll agree with that, top down likely works better. But it needs a decent amount to agree. We have me, you and Hoopla, I'd say if 5 people agree we do it, regardless of anyone else.
LLD, I appear to making a pigs ear of a few things lately, you're right, they can't be scum together. Which means if SSBF is scum, Kise is. But I favour Quadz as scum over Kise... Which means SSBF isn't scum.
Also, why is Kise exempt from claiming Hoopla? What makes you so certain he's town? There's a minimum of one scum in the top 3. I know it's not me, meaning it's Quadz or Kise (or both, but that's unlikely personally). While I do favour Quadz as scum, why is Kise free?
I guess the theory I presented wasn't clear enough so I'll use the stats instead.
The meta argument as I understood it was "If Quadz' team drew a (as in single) scum PM they wouldn't give it to him." And if we ignore the WIFOM and the fact that maybe his team has a differing opinion of his skills that we do; it was true. Any team had a 77% chance of drawing zero or one scum PMs and thus if we take that statement as a given it would be extremely unlikely that quadz was scum.
However, we now have confirmed information that we can combine with reasonable speculation to figure out that quadz team drew at least one scum PM. Given that we can recalculate the percentages and when we do that; there's only a 45% chance that was the only scum PM his team got. Making "If Quadz' team drew a (as in single) scum PM they wouldn't give it to him" far less likely to be applicable because the circumstances under which it applies shift from likely to less than a coin flip.
I still feel like my explanation is lacking; if someone else understands what I'm getting at please feel free to clarify for others.
Your statistics sort of fly over my head, but I kinda get where you were coming from just disagree.
We're pretty confident we know Quadz team (yes singer was obv on it) and given recent flips he looks more town, I think, and that he's the one who likes scum the least. Now if you wanna call WIFOM that's fine, but if he actually really dislikes being scum the chances of him picking it are very fucking minute.
We need more SSBF in this thread, or more SSBF rope either.
As for eliminating roled scum that's all fine and dandy but I've no problem taking the low hanging scumfruit that's surefire before working my way up the apple tree. I'm not going to not vote SSBF just because he might be a goon, lynching scum is the most important thing.
are you thinking of me when you're with somebody else?
However, our three scum aren't all in the 1s and 6s, there's scum in either the 9s (Hoopla) or the singular numbers (Kise, me and Quadz).
We've already eliminated Quadz from the running in that pairing, which means Kise, myself and Hoopla. Looking back over how things have gone lately with Kise pushing an SSBF lynch, I'm pretty sure we can all agree to take Kise out of any equation with SSBF-scum in it. So we're down to Me and Hoopla. I know I'm not scum, which would mean Hoopla scum, with SSBF, and someone from the 6s. I'm still not buying Hoopla as scum at the moment.
So I'm not liking the SSBF wagon, it doesn't work unless people either believe myself or Hoopla to be scum with him, and if that's the case then we're up shit creek and the paddles weren't in the canoe to begin with.
DDD, who do you want to lynch today? Your last two posts have been largely uninformative meta wafflings.
~~
This game is suffering from a lack of direction. We need to start deciding on what our plan is today and commit to something. The last thing we want is a disjointed town with some people claiming under the guise of some idea, whilst others believing it should be done another way or not at all, and us ending up somewhere in the middle. Whatever we pick and stick to together will be better than a little bit of everything (which is already at risk of happening).
I'm personally in favour of a top-down massclaim, or just Prana/quadz claims (maybe Kise and myself if others see fit). Bottom-up is supposed to prevent scum fakeclaiming Vanilla instead of their PR, but they already know enough about the game to make safeclaims, that it isn't worth it. We know that at max, there is one scum in the 6's, thus scum are in higher than random positions (collectively) in the draft. It's more beneficial to have scum earlier in the sequence of claims, making top-down a better play.
We could feasibly organise a list that isn't top-down or bottom-up, but based purely on collective suspicions; maybe something like quadz/SSBF/Prana/whoever else next by popular choice. Thoughts on this?
Hoopla wrote:The last thing we want is a disjointed town with some people claiming under the guise of some idea, whilst others believing it should be done another way or not at all, and us ending up somewhere in the middle. Whatever we pick and stick to together will be better than a little bit of everything (which is already at risk of happening).
Quoting this again. Claiming impulsively without support for why you're doing it is stupid. It's probably too late now to do anything other than a top-down massclaim.
Goes back to my point of being a cancer patient. Being #1 means I'm an obv PR in the mafia's eyes. I don't want to hold onto a power that could be killed off the first night, so I picked a temporary power.
I've been back and forth on the issue of who could be scum. You pointed out that SpyreX and a few others were calling me town off of little input from myself, and I have it in the back of my mind that scum would buddy up to me so I can agree with them before they silence me.
I consider Prana town due to his aggressiveness, similar to LLD. I don't like his views on outguessing the PYP mechanics, but it's not terribly troubling since I know he can have his mind fixated on an ideal as town all the time. On an offsite forum, we used to think Prana was scum until he finally did land a mafia role and played it cool. That was a year ago, I believe, but that's been my only encounter with Prana-scum. I'm bothered that him and LLD are in this war of words, as it detracts from SSBF.
quadz may be town depending on his answer to my question. I WANT to see him as town, but he needs to scratch my itch first.
Zito hasn't given me a chance to read him. I understand he's got things going on, but it's tough when I can't get much out of him.
So I'd corner yourself, Hoopla, with DDD and Smash as my current picks. My team QT agrees that DDD's selective voting looks like he tried to secure mislynch points, and we're wondering if the other 2 mafia were off of the wagon so they can collect points later - which points to Smash and quadz. However, your parked vote on Grey + the push he received from others as time went on could have been a working from the inside, we think.
When I first attacked Smash, I mentioned how he spoke intently condemning against those attacking Amrun, but used the words "like" and "seems" when he went over Amrun to express his uncertainty of her. That was too selective in my book, and his attempt to lurk sitewide isn't enough to take my eyes off him. Quadz is also guilty of the sitewide lurking.
They have escaped into the mansion where they thought it was safe.
.
